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Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Effectively Wild Episode 2438: Season Preview Series: Pirates and Twins
02:08:17
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- [00:11]
Ben Lindbergh
Every weekday, break down your favorite pastime, sit down, relax and unwind as we.
- [00:19]
John Prado
Learn our t wor.
- [00:23]
Meg Rowley
Hello and welcome to episode 2438 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraph Spaceball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I make Riley of fangraphs and also your super bowl winning Seattle Seahawks. I'm joined by Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, who, despite being a sports knower, does not, as far as I know, have an NFL affiliation. Ben, how are you?
- [00:48]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, I would describe myself as a football follower, but not a football fan. And so they are not my super bowl winning Seahawks, but they are yours and everyone else's. Yes, all of America's. At least anyone who is rooting against the Patriots, which is most of America's. But I know that this is a baseball podcast, not a football podcast, but we have sadly not had the opportunity to talk about your baseball team winning a championship.
- [01:15]
Meg Rowley
So not yet.
- [01:16]
Ben Lindbergh
I must give you a moment to luxuriate, to take a victory lap here.
- [01:20]
Meg Rowley
I'll say this because, sure, this is a baseball show. This is a baseball show. But by our definition of baseball shows, I think the super bowl is now a baseball show because.
- [01:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Because of Ronald Acuna Jr. Yes. And his cameo in the halftime show.
- [01:36]
Meg Rowley
That's exactly right. That's exactly right.
- [01:38]
Ben Lindbergh
It's true.
- [01:38]
Meg Rowley
Bunny did a little like, like imitating, like he was hitting a, you know, knock out of here.
- [01:43]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [01:43]
Meg Rowley
And also, let me, let me say this, this is not the most meaningful way or the most telling way. The Bad Bunny is great, I'll admit to that. I'll stipulate that up front. But, but I think that baseball fans end up getting exposed to a great deal of Bad Bunny, even if Bad Bunny is not like a regular listen for them. Because Bad Bunny is a very popular walk up song choice for Latino players. A participant in the celebrity softball game and you know, a purveyor of. Of concerts after the fact. But also just like Bad Bunny saves us all from having to hear more Morgan Wallen. And for that I think he is a living saint. But also, what a show. What a great. What a time.
- [02:40]
Ben Lindbergh
Another baseball Bad Bunny connection is that it was reported by Carlos Bierga, I believe, I can't confirm. But, but there, there was a report that he tried to. To pay the insurance premiums for Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, the Puerto Rican players who are not playing, and that he offered to foot the bill and that that offer was rebuffed, I suppose, by the teams or the league or whoever. So don't know if that's true, but it was said at least. And sure, let's. Let's give it to him. It would be a nice gesture if so.
- [03:16]
Meg Rowley
Yeah. Also just like, yeah. Acuna was there. Always happy to see Pedro Pascal, you know, never mad.
- [03:23]
Ben Lindbergh
So you must be happy all the time then, because you're seeing.
- [03:26]
Meg Rowley
She is everywhere. That's good. I think that's good for us. Also. Ricky Martin, you look great. My guy, you look.
- [03:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Looks fantastic.
- [03:33]
Meg Rowley
Great. I am thrilled for you. But anyway, it was a good halftime show. Also a welcome break because for those who watch, you will know, like, not like an offensive showcase.
- [03:48]
Ben Lindbergh
No.
- [03:48]
Meg Rowley
And part of that was a lot of fun for me because I would describe this Seahawks defense stifling, suffocating in Drake May's business. I hope that that line can enter witness protection at least briefly because, boy, did that offensive line head of a bad day. You got to adjust to the blitz, you know, you gotta adjust to the blitz if you're gonna win a Super Bowl. They couldn't do it. I had to listen to people talking about how Josh McDaniels is gonna. No, guess what Josh couldn't do. He couldn't figure him out. Ben. He couldn't figure him out.
- [04:24]
John Prado
Two weeks.
- [04:24]
Meg Rowley
Two weeks I had to hear about how. Oh, Josh McDaniel. No, you know who didn't figure him out? Josh McDaniels. Also Drake May. I do want to allow. I do want to allow for him still having had a very impressive season, you know, great effort. We maybe saw the effects of their soft schedule. I just think that when you go through the gauntlet of the west, of the NSC west, you are. You are battle tested.
- [04:53]
Ben Lindbergh
You are.
- [04:54]
Meg Rowley
You are ready to. To box.
- [04:56]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. We talk about this in baseball sometimes, too. When you look at how teams have performed against weaker teams or their strength of schedule, and is it bad if they had a weaker schedule, which absolutely the Patriots did. They also beat up on a lot of the weaker teams they faced. So when you adjust for that. Still a strong team now.
- [05:16]
Meg Rowley
Yes.
- [05:17]
Ben Lindbergh
The Seahawks, the reason why they were favored and why ultimately they just won, ran all over the Patriots is, is that they had a harder schedule. And they also beat up on everyone they faced by a lot, too. So even if you adjust for that, then, yeah, they were just, I think, a better team. And. And we don't have to go too deep into football analysis. I do have a couple of. Of baseball thoughts and questions and observations prompted by the Seahawks victory.
- [05:44]
Meg Rowley
Okay.
- [05:44]
Ben Lindbergh
But I'm gonna. I'm sure you'd. You'd like to talk a little bit more.
- [05:48]
Meg Rowley
I'm gonna let you guess. I'm gonna let you guess them, and I promise I won't. I just. It had to have been. You know, I know this was true statistically in a number of ways, but also just in terms of the experience, the aesthetic experience of watching them dominate that Patriots offense. It just was one of the more impressive defensive showings in the Super Bowl I've ever seen. So impressive from a guy who is not only the head coach, but also the defensive play caller. And, you know, that's not a. That's like a complicated defense. Defense, but in the end, it didn't have to because that line is just so. It is like Devin Witherspoon flying, flying up from the secondary. I just, you know, I was like. And, and here. And here's the other thing. These don't have to all be coherent. You know, that's one thing I get the day after the Super Bowl. And also, you know, my relationship with football is so funny because on the one hand, like, I do still enjoy advanced stats in the football context. Like, you know, I. I love to hear about dvoa. I especially love to hear about DVOA when DVOA is saying how good the Seahawks are. That's one of my favorite things about dvoa, at least the season. You know, DVOA is like, look, I am going to give you statistical backup for what your human eyes are seeing. And to that I say, good job, dvoa. But my other thing about football is that it is the sport where I get to be a dip if I want. Sorry for the swear. Um, I get to do a swear. My team just won the Super Bowl. Sorry, that of all the swears that I could do, that was pretty tame, right? You're going to give me that one. You're going to be. You're going to give me. But I can be. I can be a dummy if I want to be, because this is. I don't have a professional stake. You know, even when I am enjoying the Mariners. Even when the Mariners were engaged in their playoff run, like, yeah, I was a fan. I'm not going to pretend that I didn't have a fan experience. Experience of that, but I also had to have a professional experience of it. I had to apply a writerly editorial podcaster lens to that. I don't have to do that for football. I just get to be a dumb girl who loves these. Loves these football boys, you know, they're all beautiful. They love each other so much. Vibes immaculate. Even though the Seahawks are like, let's bring Chris Pratt around again. Why are you doing that? You don't have to, you know, you don't have to bring Chris Pratt around. You know, no one will miss him. This. Sorry. I'm gonna. You can set a timer and then you can tell me when I need to be done. Okay. You. I'm not gonna go a whole half hour. You were joking before we got on Mike. Like, oh, you're just gonna talk about the Seahawks for a half hour? I'm not gonna talk about that one.
- [08:33]
Ben Lindbergh
The hourglass has already run outta sand, but keep going.
- [08:36]
Meg Rowley
I'm gonna keep going for a second. I. I'm gonna hit. I'm gonna hit three points. The first is an extended Chris Pratt rant. The second is gonna be about Sam Darnold. And the third, okay, I'm going to hit four points. The third is about Kenneth Walker. The third. And then, and then we're going to talk about special teams, and then I'm going to be done and I'm going to try to do it quick. They. Chris Pratt is, like, from the Northwest and he loves the Seahawks. And we don't have to get into, like, some of the weirdness of Chris Pratt, but there's weirdness with Chris Pratt. Chris Pratt's a weird guy. He's a strange guy. Some of the ways he's strange we don't have to talk about. Some of the ways he's strange are like, what happened to your career, man? Like, you were going to do one thing and now you're like, making. Now you're doing, like, weird Tom Clancy knockoff stuff or like the. The AI movie. Here's. Here's the rant, though. When the Seahawks played the Rams on Thursday Night Football, a game I was lucky enough to attend in person, it was one of the most stressful and then transcendent football experiences I've ever had. Prior to that game. They brought out Chris Pratt and let him do promo for that AI movie he's in. And Ben, they made us watch the entire trailer in the stadium during one of the most important games of their season. We just had to sit there and watch a full ass trailer for. For a movie that has been universally panned. Mercy, it's called. You know what the mercy would have been not making me watch that trailer. And he, you know, he's there, he's pumping up the crowd, and the whole time I'm sitting there thinking, you know, there are a lot of really cool people from Seattle and there are a lot of, there are a lot of less cool people who are cooler than Chris Pratt. And so we had to watch the entire trailer. He got to pump up the crowd. Then they showed us him in his suite and, and we were expected to cheer for him. I booed. Rebecca Ferguson was not there, which would have redeemed it because she seems cool. And you know what? I don't understand some of her career choices either. But get, get, get your bag lady. That's fine. I, I like you. You get a pass on the weird AI movie. Even though, like, what is that weird AI movie? What are we doing with this weird AI Anyway, the, the Seahawks embrace Chris Pratt. He leads the team onto the field doing the promo hype thing prior to the Super Bowl. They decide to operate at that kind of vibes deficit and they still win. So that's, that's remarkable.
- [11:09]
Ben Lindbergh
Just goes to show it's, it's not about the bits and the mascots. Ultimately it's about the team and the talent. Right?
- [11:15]
Meg Rowley
Team and the talent. Okay, so that's, that's my Chris Pratt.
- [11:17]
Ben Lindbergh
Right.
- [11:17]
Meg Rowley
To briefly say something about Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold had one job in this super bowl, which was to not throw a back breaking pick six to hand the championship to the New England Patriots. He was wonderful in their playoff game against the Rams. The reason they won that game, because the defense has been able to stifle everyone else still getting kind of undone by the Los Angeles Rams. And let me tell you, to the people who were like, oh, Drake may should have been the mvp. No. You know who I was afraid of? Matthew Stafford. You know who I wasn't afraid of?
- [11:51]
Ben Lindbergh
Drake.
- [11:51]
Meg Rowley
Maybe Sam Darnold did exactly what he needed to. He was not good. He was at times terrifying. There were a couple of moments in that game where I was like, oh my God, he's going to throw the pick. He's going to throw the pick right now. He's going to. He is about to throw the pick and he didn't, he didn't end up doing it. So I appreciate you, Sam. The back half of your season was terrifying. You did do what you needed to in the playoffs. Sometimes by just not screwing up, sometimes by being tremendous. And I think we have to stop talking about him like he's a make a wish kid because the way that people talk about Sam Bernold on broadcasts is understandable, but hilarious. They talk about him like he has received a terminal diagnosis. They talk about him to his face. And to his teammates, like, he is the worst quarterback on the planet. And there are times when he plays very bad. But also, it is just fundamentally funny that the super bowl winning, winning quarterback gets talked about that way. Kenneth Walker the third is a hilarious and confounding runner. He is capable of tremendous patience. He had that one 30 yard run where it was like he should have just been dead to rights, but he was able to. And then, and then, oh, find the little hole. There are times though, and I again, Kenny, I love you. You are a beautiful angel. What a great football guy. But also sometimes you. You should just run north, south instead of going laterally so much. So. So there's that. And then finally I understand why. Walker III one Super bowl mvp. I get it. And there is something like spiritually satisfying something that serves as, like a. A bomb, perhaps a clothing of a hellmouth to have a running back employed by the Seahawks win Super Bowl MVP in a Super bowl against the Patriots. Do I think I get to be done watching that Malcolm Butler interception now? That rocks. Oh, what a relief. I was so sick of having to see. And. And you know what? It would. It would pop random moments like a freaking Jack in the box from hell. Jack. Jack in the box. It's still Jack in the box. Even with the restaurant. Right? It's still called the Jack in box. Okay? So, you know, you just be like washing a random game that Tom Brady's calling and then they're showing that and I'm like, why am I getting whacked with this right now? What is happening that I have to see this freaking interception one more time. But now I think I get to be done seeing it anyway. Really nice to have a Seahawks running back, like, put the last shovel of dirt on the curse of the super. Of that Patriots super bowl, which, like, might have opened a portal to hell. And now maybe that's closed. Question mark. But arguably the Seahawks defense in Toto should have won mvp and they could have figured out who needed the truck, you know, because I imagine the reason they don't do like a. A unit MVP award is because there. There is like a. They get a truck, right? Or a car or they get something. They get like a check.
- [14:57]
Ben Lindbergh
They should all just have to pile in there like a clown car.
- [15:00]
Meg Rowley
Yeah. Or they could just be like, whose truck? You know, who needs a new truck? You can have that truck. Or who. Who. Who doesn't care about the weird tax implications of this present? Because you do have to pay taxes on it, I imagine, because it's like, the trucks are expensive, and so they. You can't just, like, get a truck for free. I think it's like a taxable gift anyway. If they weren't going to give it to the defense as a whole, I, I do think it would have been funny if they had given it to Jason Myers, because he was the first player in NFL history to score 200 points in a season, was responsible for a great many of their points in that super bowl game. And it's funny to give it to a kicker. And he does smelling sal salts. And like, now everyone does smelling salts. He's, like, responsible for a bunch of smelling salts. I don't know if that's good or bad. It might be bad. Is it. Is it good or bad, Zeus? It's funny that you can't. That you're allowed to do smelling salts. You know, like, we have all these rules about PEDs, and he's. He's doing them on, on the sideline. You, like, see him. You kind of, like, see him doing drugs every game. So that's kind of funny. Anyway, I'm really glad the Seahawks won. It's very stressful. Until it wasn't. And then it was great.
- [16:17]
Ben Lindbergh
The pick six.
- [16:17]
Meg Rowley
I was like, I think they're gonna win. You know, I feel comfortable saying it now.
- [16:21]
Ben Lindbergh
I know you get nervous during these games. I, I think it was. It was considerate of them to not make it particularly close. I mean, I know the score was kind of close for a while, and the final score was. The final score was closer than it ever seemed or felt. But. But as anxiety in championship games goes. Yeah, they were so clearly outclassed for much of this game that it probably was a little easier on you than it would have been otherwise. But that was. That was quite a torrent of takes, and I'm happy for you. And I think Mina Keim should have you on the Mina Keim show featuring Lenny so that you can continue to talk about this at even greater length. And I talked about some of these topics on Hang up and Listen. So I will have mercy on the people who are not here for football talk and quarantine. My takes to that.
- [17:09]
Meg Rowley
You knew I had to do it, though.
- [17:11]
Ben Lindbergh
No, you absolutely knew I had to do it. People want to hear your raw, uncut fan energy, which we don't get to hear very often for Mariners related reasons. Right. So thank you for sharing.
- [17:21]
Meg Rowley
You're welcome. Thank you. Thank you for giving me, you know, the, the space to do that, especially the Chris Pratt stuff, because it's really been weighing on me. I just like, there are a lot of cool people from Seattle. You know, are they all busy like they, they could have had. There were so many Mariners at the Super Bowl. There were all kinds of Mariners at the Super Bowl. Just like guys and guys and guys. Cal was there and Julio was there and Brian Wu was there and George Kirby was there and Josh Naylor was there. Josh Naylor is having the best couple of months of his entire life and I enjoying it on his behalf. Like he, he's just like, look, I'm going to be the guy who shows up to all the sports in the city where I now have a long deal and I'm going to be having a great time. They could have had any of those guys do it. Although maybe they would have. Would it have been worse from a vibe. Sorry, I'm going to be done. Would it have been worse from a vibes perspective to have a member of the Mariners lead them out? I said that it was not question.
- [18:22]
Ben Lindbergh
No. Maybe.
- [18:23]
Meg Rowley
Yeah, like maybe.
- [18:24]
Ben Lindbergh
That's, that's what I wanted to ask you. I know this is not the first Seahawks super bowl you've seen, but they're all sweet. The second one is sweet as well.
- [18:33]
Meg Rowley
Yeah, it feels great.
- [18:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Does this make you more or less eager to see a Mariner's title? And maybe it has no effect because that's, that's a 10 in terms of your desire regardless. But is it a pressure release valve? Hey, okay, I got to express these feelings and I got to feel all these emotions and got to experience a championship. Or does it ramp up the pressure further because you're thinking, oh, I get to enjoy this for my football team. But imagine if I got to feel this for my baseball team too, and that would be even more special and different in some ways. And I want this. Now that I've experienced this multiple times for my football team, it just makes me crave it for my baseball team even more because I wonder about that when you're in a multi sport city and one team has more success than another. Is it just like, I'm sated. Okay, this helps. My angst is somewhat depleted just because my joy was renewed by this other team. Or does it make the contrast even stronger?
- [19:38]
Meg Rowley
I. They're, they're really discreet experiences. I can't really feel anything but like awe at the, the year Seattle sports had, you know, and not every team did. Did the thing and the Mariners didn't do the thing ultimately. But like, what a tremendous time. What a run. You and like, the.
- [20:04]
Ben Lindbergh
The.
- [20:04]
Meg Rowley
The Mariners season extending so far into the Seahawks season, and then the Seahawks season extending all the way up to pitchers and catchers, basically.
- [20:14]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [20:15]
Meg Rowley
Then I. An embarrassment of Richards. My sister sent me a. A video of my nieces reacting to the win last night, and I just was like, these girls are going to have a totally warped understanding of what it's like to be a Seattle sports fan. That's wild.
- [20:31]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [20:31]
Meg Rowley
You know, like, we were just with exceptions.
- [20:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Right.
- [20:35]
Meg Rowley
Like, I. I think that you would be remiss to say, like, it was all bad because we got to watch this incredible era of storm basketball, which was so gratifying and they were so good, and it had such important, you know, great athletes. And I know that people care about soccer, and I'm not one of those people, but I don't want to diminish their enjoyment. But when it came to, like, the men's sports, it was just like wandering in the wilderness for such a long time. And now these girls are going to be like, our sports are great. And I'm going to be like, you don't know what it's like. You know, I'm going to turn into an old person more than I am. So I experienced them differently, and in. In total just feel like such. I feel so fortunate to have witnessed such a good run here about teams I care about. You know, I like. I like it that, like, the. The Mariners guy. So many of the Mariners guys were there because it's like, hey, you know.
- [21:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Like, that cross sports pollination. It's nice.
- [21:37]
Meg Rowley
If I were a pro athlete, it would be. My favorite thing about being a pro athlete, I think would be, like, getting to be, hey, I'm gonna show up at this other thing, you know, and everyone's gonna be excited to see me, and I'm gonna be so happy for these. For these folks, and they're going to be excited for me and, like, it would. It would be great. So anyway, I view them separately. I. I remain hopeful that, like, the Mariners will win a World Series because it would just mean so much to so many. It would mean a lot to me, but it would also just mean so much to so many people I know. And I would find that very gratifying, but I don't. It doesn't feel like a competition. It can only really feel complimentary to me because there's clearly. I'm going to stop talking. I'm talking so much. This isn't like when you made me record a voice memo after that one game, and I Was like, clearly kind of drunk. You know, it's like A. It's 12:41 on a Monday. I've been working for like six hours.
- [22:35]
Ben Lindbergh
So it's the super bowl after blow.
- [22:37]
Meg Rowley
It's so exciting.
- [22:39]
Ben Lindbergh
Afternoon after. Yeah, yeah.
- [22:40]
Meg Rowley
But so I just view it as they're like, reinforcing and complimentary experiences. And I also just think it goes to show that, like, I don't think there's a cap on, like, the amount of excitement you can have in a. In a place for. For like, sports going good. You know, people like it when their sports folks do well. You know, they want to see all their beautiful sports folks doing well. I've been. My greatest issue today has been that I have been busy editing all morning and then we've been recording, which has been gratifying because we've had really good preview conversations, which we'll talk about in a second. But I just haven't been able. I haven't been able to listen to any of my podcasts about my beautiful football guys. Ben. I have some, like, administrative work I have to do today, like stuff that I don't have to edit for, and I think I'm gonna move it up in the queue. Not irresponsibly. It's fine. Just so I can listen to people talk about my. My football guys, including Mina. Can't wait to hear what Mina has to say. Thank you, Mina, for recording. Right after the Super Bowl, I was like, I'm gonna have that in my. In my queue.
- [23:45]
Ben Lindbergh
You're dying to hear my super bowl analysis on hang up and listen. So that'll be there for you too. But great team, great title.
- [23:52]
Meg Rowley
Thank you.
- [23:53]
Ben Lindbergh
Not. Not great uniforms. In my mind, I hesitate to even say that because, you know, I'm not a big uniform person, so it's not a big deal. I just, esthetically speaking, not my favorite.
- [24:07]
Meg Rowley
But do you like the throwbacks?
- [24:09]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, I think so. Which I was going to say because the Marlins bringing back the mid-90s for their throwbacks now that love it, that got me going. Even as someone who's basically a non uniform carrier, that should just be their permanent uniforms as far as I'm concerned. Why mess with perfection?
- [24:27]
Meg Rowley
But the NFL has like, rules about, like, how many you can do and how many times. And it feels so strange and inscrutable to me. And I know that what they want to do is force the like, you know, whether it's color rush or rivalry or whatever, but you're really telling me, NFL, that you would rather see those University of Oregon ass jerseys that you made the Seahawks where they were bad, Ben, they were, they were a bat. They were bad. That was the other thing at that Thursday night game that contributed to the rancid vibes that they somehow overcame is that I'm pretty sure they were wearing their rivalry uniforms that night. And they're not good. And they also just. They look strongly like University of Oregon uniforms, which, like, there are a lot of Oregon grads in, in Seattle and I don't bear them any ill will really. But like, it's a weird choice when you're a Seattle based team. So anyway, they should wear the throwbacks all the time because the throwbacks are immaculate. They are beautiful. I do wish they had gone navy pants, white tops, because that's what they did when they won against the Broncos. And I like that uniform combo, I think the best. I don't mind the Navy. I know that. That apparently people don't like them. And maybe I'm just still scarred by like the Sean Alexander era uniforms, which were trash. They were so bad. That was a low point in like uniform technology kind of across sports, I would submit.
- [25:59]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. One thing I do appreciate, though, is the nickname. And I think football does this better than baseball. Baseball has team nicknames or, or it did before the decline of nicknames. If there is a decline of nicknames, you know, you got the Gas House Gang and the Whiz Kids and the Miracle Mets and so forth. Actually, when I tried to type in Gas House Gang, Google tried to autocorrect that to Gaseous Gang, which would be very different. But.
- [26:25]
Meg Rowley
But you have the team level gang full of people who have gas.
- [26:28]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes. So you, you have team level nicknames, but you don't really have nicknames for units, for components of teams, which obviously is a huge thing with the Seahawks, with the Legion of Boom and with the Dark side defense and everything. And I tried to make this a thing with the royals, the 2014 royals in their ultimate outfield when they would put in Gerard Dyson for defense, that didn't really catch on. I think it's because baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport. So having nicknames for. Yeah, yeah, it's there. I mean, you have, you know, the Nasty Boys or Murderers Row. Right. Like there's, there's some history of it, but it's not as common.
- [27:10]
Meg Rowley
Yeah.
- [27:10]
Ben Lindbergh
And I think it makes sense for it not to be as common just because you tend not to think of a defense as a unit because they're not really Working in tandem so much. Unless you're a double play combo or something in baseball, it's not quite like a defense in football, for instance. So I do lament the lack of that in baseball, and I think we should try to make more of it. And so I appreciate it in the Seahawks case, although my only quibble with Legion of Boom is basically that Legion of Doom is, is already the name of, like, a intimidating unit. And so changing it to boom doesn't actually make it more scary or.
- [27:48]
Meg Rowley
But it's more descriptive because they brought.
- [27:50]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes, it's more descriptive. It's true.
- [27:52]
Meg Rowley
It's more descriptive. I mean, like, look. Okay, so now I'm going to briefly talk about that era. I'm going to be on a.
- [27:59]
Ben Lindbergh
Swear to God, I was joking about half an hour on the Seahawks.
- [28:02]
Meg Rowley
So, like, no, no, I'm going to. I'm going to be done. I'm going to be done. Oh, really? Has been half an hour. I'm. Look, how many times is going to happen on the pod, right? Not very many. Not, not very often.
- [28:13]
Ben Lindbergh
We'll timestamp it. Timestamps are your friends. Sometimes.
- [28:16]
Meg Rowley
The Legion of Boom, it was so descriptive because, like, their, their games, games, it's very easy to identify when in time that team played based on the way that they hit, the way that Cam Chancellor in particular hit, because they're not allowed to hit like that anymore. Which is to be clear, a good thing like this is not me being like, oh, back in the day, you could give guys a concussion and it was fine. No, no. Like, I, I saw Cam Chancellor deliver hits to, to members of the, the San Francisco 49ers and then feel quite confident that they did not know their names anymore. Right. And that's bad. That's like a bad for. That's bad. That's bad for them as people. But it was very. It was descriptive because they, they did. They brought. They brought the boom. Just. Just ask Vernon Davis. Like I. Anyway, okay.
- [29:12]
Ben Lindbergh
Okay. All right. Well, the good news, I guess maybe is that we don't have a huge amount of baseball banter for you today because we have two previews and we will be bringing you a Pirates preview from John Parrado and a Twins preview from Aaron Gleaming. So we will get to that shortly. I just wanted to wish you condolences on the retirement of Buck Martinez. And I'm, you know, I'm glad that the Seahawks won just to distract you from. I know the loss in baseball of Buck because I know that he is just one of your Favorite characters in the game. You're not even a Blue Jays fan. Just the voice, the presence and care about. We will always have recorded Buck Martinez and future generations will marvel at the fact that he existed and that talking for a living was his job, as it should have been. And I don't know if it was just that they couldn't let him attempt to say Cam Schlitler anymore on Mike or what, but, you know, sad to see him go. Obviously he's had a lot of health issues in recent years and multiple kinds of cancer. I hope that he is healthy and fine and just wants to enjoy his retirement. There was one ominous note in his retirement announcement where he said, I had hoped to be part of the 50th year of the Toronto Blue Jays. I hope he will be part of it in some context, but obviously a legend for the franchise as a player, as a manager, as a broadcaster. He's been around for half a century and he is indeed inimitable. And I'm sorry that, you know, future players will not have their names pronounced by Buck Martinez. I was almost going to say, as much as I find the whole re. Speecherization of everything, the AI of vacation, of voices, distasteful, I was going to say I'd make an exception for Buck if. If he greenlit it and was just like, yeah, you can just. If you can use my voice just so that we continue to be treated to how it would sound if Buck Martinez said something when he's no longer broadcasting. But it wouldn't be the same because you wouldn't be able to AI ify his mispronunciations. And, yeah, I don't think you could. You could project it really. You couldn't really extrapolate from the corpus of Buck Martinez work because it's just so singular, the human touch. So Buck's the best. He'll be missed on Mike for sure.
- [31:40]
Meg Rowley
I don't under. I don't think AI could replicate the. The sound of, like, vowels being simultaneously chewed and swallowed, which is like a lot of the Buck.
- [31:49]
Ben Lindbergh
I might just break the model. Maybe that's how we. It's like the Luddite.
- [31:52]
Meg Rowley
You can defeat the machines.
- [31:53]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, we just. Here, see what you can do with this LLM. See if you can generate a Buck Martinez effects and good luck.
- [32:02]
Meg Rowley
Yeah, I hope that he is well. And even if he is completely well, and this is not in response to, like, any kind of health setback, like, you know, you get to be done at a certain point. You know, you get to enjoy Time with your family. And it is even, you know, with the, the constraints that his health has put on his schedule in the last couple of years, like a grueling thing to do regardless of your age and maybe particularly so when you're getting up in years. So I hope that Buck is well, I hope the buckets to enjoy a lovely retirement. I'm sure that he is welcome back in that booth whenever he feels like dropping by. But yeah, it just will. It will not be the same. I, Karen Kirmer. I'm not even doing justice to it. Like I'm not really in the Voice, but. But who could be? You know, it's so right. It is unique. It is truly unique. Truly unique. I just did a thing I hate when people try to modify unique. But it, it, you know what I'm trying to say.
- [33:05]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, we'll make an exception for Buck. And even sadder news and a bigger loss. Yeah. The untimely death of Terrence Gore, which, that just kind of came out of nowhere and hit people hard. Terrance Gore, a former guest on this podcast during the Jeff Sullivan era, was a delightful conversation with him on episode 1306 and sad on a human level. He, he was a young guy. He was 34. He had a family and kids and everything and it was just a seemingly complications from a non life threatening surgery and things just went wrong. And there have been some nice remembrances in recent days. And just a special player, I mean really kind of the baseball equivalent to a special teams player. Right. That's kind of what he was. And to invoke the mid-2010s royals again, as I just did, he was a big part of those teams. Obviously has three World Series rings, but was the most integral component of those teams, more so than the later ones that he contributed to. And it was just so much fun to see him do that. To be the playoff pinch runner extraordinaire and obviously a limited player. But the times when you needed him and when he could give you that stolen base, it was just so much fun. And kind of a throwback back. You know, every generation or two there's, there's a player like that and people think of. Of course the A is under Charlie Finley and all of their sprinter extraordinaires and everything. But yeah, it was, it was a special career. And talk about good vibes guy, obviously he was one of those. And you know, ever smiling. Andy McCullough did a nice piece on him for the Athletic. Of course, Andy covered him with the Royals as well. So yeah, it's. It's really sad in a baseball sense. Also in a just human sense. Rest in peace, Terence Gore.
- [35:03]
Meg Rowley
Yeah, we hope your family's well supported in a really sad time.
- [35:08]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes. Yeah. There was a piece that was written at Baseball Prospectus just in November by another former guest of ours, Bradley Woodrum, about the heir to Terrence Gore. And Bradley was trying to figure out, is there anyone who fits that profile or who could be coming along who could occupy that sort of spot on a roster. And it's pretty hard to come up with candidates because there just aren't a lot of guys who had that combination of tools and some extremely amazing tools and some missing tools, and just the absolute burner that he was, came up with Kendall George as the best candidate. Kendall George, who's a Dodgers prospect and stole 100 bases in the minors and, you know, might have some deficiencies in other areas. He might turn out to be too good to. To play that part, but that was who Bradley identified. I'll link to his piece on the search for someone who could be Gore, like on the field. But yeah, by all accounts, great guy and a really fun player who just really made more of an impact than you could ever glean from his war or whatever, because no one who was following baseball during the Terence Gore years will ever forget Terence Gore. And he will be invoked as an archetype of that type of player. If other players like that come along, people will think immediately of Terence Gore. So he made a major impact. And the last thing I will say, I saw this stray tweet and it was, it's mildly Pirates related. It was about this kid named Sebastian Perez and it was, okay, I'll just read it. It's a little clip of this guy hitting. And the tweet, which is from someone named Wilbur Sanchez, the account is at Wilbur Data and it says the Pirates have lost Sebastian Perez, the top catcher in the 2027 class. So this is an international prospect and according to many scouts, the best catcher in the history of the international class. Perez combines judge like power, Ellie De La Cruz's speed and Yadier Molina's defense. It is very likely that Sebastian's new deal will be worth at least double his previous agreement. So again, don't place any undue expectations on the kid judge like power, Ellie's speed and Yadier Molina's defense. Now, a number of things about this. I mean, first of all, the idea that this kid, who must be, what, 15 or something, right?
- [37:43]
Meg Rowley
Because he's a 2027 sign yeah, yeah.
- [37:46]
Ben Lindbergh
The idea that the Pirates could have lost him, that anyone could have lost him, that anyone could have had a deal with him in the first place. I know that this is how it works, but it's. I always just feel the need to point out none of these people are supposed to have deals with anyone. These teams are not actually supposed to sign anyone at this age, but that's just kind of par for the course, I guess. And I asked Eric Langenhagen about this player because I knew nothing about him obviously. And Eric texted a couple of he said director level people and one response he got back was best catcher in history or best catcher in the history of the international market is insane. So this, this appears to be blowing some smoke, some hot air here. I mean how could it not be? Because even if he really was the best catching prospect as a, there's no.
- [38:35]
Meg Rowley
Way you could know that now.
- [38:36]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. And, and also. Yeah. To place that sort of expectation on a kid judge like power away cruises speed and Nadia's defense. What like 15 year old has Yadiel in his defense anyway? What would that even look like?
- [38:50]
Meg Rowley
What would it look like?
- [38:51]
Ben Lindbergh
I was trying to figure out what a player with that combination of, of skills would be worth or what like can you imagine Judge like power, Ellie speed and Yadir Molina's defense now? I, I guess judge like power and Ellie's speed could be o' Neill Cruz who we're about to talk to John Prado about. And he's not actually a very good player at this point.
- [39:12]
Meg Rowley
Yeah. I mean but there's an unsaid like actualized there.
- [39:17]
Ben Lindbergh
Right. Probably Right. It's not just that he can hit the ball as hard or as far as Judge, but that I guess he can hit it more regularly than o' Neill Cruz does. Right. Or he has some, some plate judgment, etc. So if you had someone who had judges offense, let's say, and Ellie's speed. So Ellie just you know, being the base runner and base stealer that he is and what Judge does at the plate with Yadier Molina's defense. Yeah, and that's, that's, yeah.
- [39:51]
John Prado
That.
- [39:51]
Ben Lindbergh
That would be a special player. Yeah. It's too bad the Pirates lost him because he sure could have helped him.
- [39:56]
Meg Rowley
How much more valuable is that guy than like Cal Raleigh was last year?
- [40:02]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, like a lot probably. Right.
- [40:04]
Meg Rowley
Because like how I think you can put like, you know, there's maybe a grade or two of power difference between the two. But like of the, of the catchers working today, if you wanted to put a, a power comp on a, on an active catcher. That's probably who you'd point to, right? As Cal.
- [40:21]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [40:21]
Meg Rowley
And he's not a bad defender, but he's probably not. Yeah, it's just like you're looking at a guy who's like a win or two more valuable than, than. Yeah, that seems bonkers. That seems a little goofy to me.
- [40:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes, it certainly is. But yeah, if you had, you know, and base running, base stealing, it's not worth as much as you'd kind of like it to be, but.
- [40:41]
John Prado
Sure.
- [40:41]
Ben Lindbergh
But with Ellie, he was worth about a win, just pure base running this past season. So add that on top of everything, in addition to. If you gave Judge Ellie's speed, then not only is he going to be crushing everything, but also he's going to be beating out just routine grounders and stuff. Like Ellie is I guess the second most valuable baserunner last year after Corbin Carroll. So yeah, give Judge that sort of speed and then also put him behind the plate and make him one of the best defenders at that premium position. You're talking if, if Judge as it is is player.
- [41:17]
Meg Rowley
Right.
- [41:18]
Ben Lindbergh
And then you're adding to his offense, let's say give him a couple wins for beating out hits and stealing tons of bases.
- [41:25]
Meg Rowley
Right.
- [41:25]
Ben Lindbergh
And then you're giving him the catcher positional adjustment.
- [41:29]
Meg Rowley
Right.
- [41:29]
Ben Lindbergh
And also with good defense. Catcher. Yeah.
- [41:32]
Meg Rowley
Yeah.
- [41:33]
Ben Lindbergh
You're talking about maybe a 20 war player. I mean, move over, move over Babe Ruth at this point.
- [41:39]
Meg Rowley
Get out of the way.
- [41:40]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, this guy's going to be the best player ever.
- [41:43]
Meg Rowley
So remember that name or regret not.
- [41:46]
Ben Lindbergh
Sorry or don't. Yeah, it reminds me of when the scout said that Luis Robert Jr. Was the best player in the world whenever that was before he made his, his pro debut in the US and we were thinking, wait, he's better than Mike Trout. Like right now he turned out to be a pretty good player. But yeah, let's wait 10 years or so and see whether Sebastian Perez turned out to be the best player of all time. Or maybe, maybe it won't take him 10 years because he has judges power and now he De La Cruz's speed and Yadi or Molina's defense and so precocious and at such a young age. So it might just be a few years, you know, wherever he ends up that we will be seeing him become the best player ever. But yeah, that is a ridiculous tweet no matter how talented this player is. But I don't think Pirates fans necessarily need to lament that they just lost the best player in baseball. They can be excited about the great players they have, such as Paul Skins and Connor Griffin, who actually deserves to be quite hyped and is on the verge of being in the big leagues, which we are about to talk to John Prado about. We'll be back with him in just a second, followed by Aaron Gleeman on the Twins. Oh, and I should say that there have been a bunch of transactions, but the nice thing about transactions happening, like a little flurry of transactions happening as pitchers and catchers are reporting, is that we can save him for the previews. I know, it's nice. We don't. We don't have to banter about the Pirates signing Marcelo Zuna because, hey, Pirates preview today. How about that? We don't really have to talk about Paul Goldschmidt resigning with the Yankees because we'll get to that when we do the Yankees preview. We don't have to talk about the Caleb Durbin trade, although that is kind of an interesting trade because we're talking brewers this week and Red Sox next week. We'll get to it. So we will cover all of that just in the course of our previews. And yeah, happy pitchers and catchers report week to everyone. Because I know that even if people aren't big football fans, they do have some reason to celebrate the end of football, namely that it marks the about to be beginning of baseball, sort of technically. All right, we'll be right back.
- [43:48]
John Prado
Romantic, pedantic and hypothetical. Semantic and frantic. Real or theoretical? They can. They give you the stats and they.
- [43:56]
Ben Lindbergh
Give you the news.
- [43:57]
John Prado
It's a baseball podcast. You should choose. Effectively Wild is here for you about all the weird stuff that players do. Authentically strange and objectively styled. Let's play ball. It's effectively wild. It's effectively wild.
- [44:17]
Aaron Gleeman
It's effectively wild.
- [44:23]
Ben Lindbergh
All right, it's time to talk about one of the more active teams of the winter, though perhaps not as active as its fans were hoping. One of the more intriguing teams, certainly. And to do that, we are joined by John Prado, who's been covering the team as long as anyone. The mystery team, by the way, is the Pittsburgh Pirates. John covers them for Roundtable Sports, also writes about the Pirates and baseball for Yard Barker, USA Today, and other outlets. John, good to have you back.
- [44:51]
John Prado
Good to be with you, too. Appreciate you having me on, of course.
- [44:55]
Ben Lindbergh
Our pleasure. So the Pirates are poised at an interesting place. According to the fan graphs projections, they're at 81.6 wins, which would certainly be an uptick. They are poised on the precipice of a winning record perhaps. But fans wanted them to be busy this off season and they certainly talked a big game at the start of the offseason about spending and we heard various reports and rumors about how much they were primed to spend and they tried to get this guy or that guy. How do you feel about their level of aggressiveness and spending relative to what they led people to believe might happen and relative to what they needed to do?
- [45:39]
John Prado
Well, I was, I was never very on board that they were going to get Kyle Schwaber even here in the last few days from her Valdez. I think I, I think they talked a good game there. I think they kind of leaked some things to some of the national writers to try to change the perception of the Pirates around the country, especially the cheap ownership. But in fairness, they've done more this winter than they have done in quite a few winners.
- [46:07]
Ben Lindbergh
Low bar, but yeah, I mean, which.
- [46:09]
John Prado
Is, you know, they actually signed people that fans have heard of other than, you know, the very hardcore fans that know who the utility players are in Double A. But I like what they've done. I, I'd like it a little more if they would have added one more really, really good player. But, but I do think their offense has certainly got to be improved. It couldn't be any worse than last year. They've added three bats and you know, they've added a couple of hard throwing left handed relievers which, which they needed. So I mean Ben Sherrington's gone out and he's been allowed to say spend a little money this time. And I think he spent it pretty wisely considering, you know, what he had on hand. It's not like he had a couple hundred million. I mean what he, what he did have, I certainly think he's improved the team. Whether it's good enough to contend. Maybe we'll see.
- [47:00]
Meg Rowley
I'm curious sort of what the thinking is in terms of how much more they might have to overspend if there is a guy who they really want in order to sort of make up for the perceived competitiveness deficit here. Right. Because they were linked to a number of other guys, some of whom were higher profile than the players who they ultimately ended up bringing in. And we have seen franchises in the past who, when they're sort of on the edge of a real playoff worthy record having to over commit resources to say no, really come here and we're going to go win some baseball games. So, so do you think that there was any more room to maneuver here than what they were ultimately able to do?
- [47:48]
John Prado
I don't really think. I think a guy like Kyle Schwaber, they were going to have to go way past what the Phillies gave him at 150 million for five years. I think for him to take a gamble to come to a franchise that's had 29 losing seasons in the last 33 years and hasn't won a division title since 92, I, I think you're going to have to overpay and over to pay steeply to get, to get a star type player. And, and they just, you know, the thing is the once players get here, they actually like it. I mean, the ballpark's beautiful, it's a good city and you know, the, it's, it's a good place to live, it's a good place to work. But eventually you want to win and this isn't the place to win. And that's why they have a hard time attracting free agents, is because of the fact that they have a history here over the last three plus decades of being pretty dreadful. So to really, to get a free agent, a couple things have to happen. Either one, you're going to have to really overpay. Or two, maybe you have somebody who has some kind of connection to Pittsburgh or Western Pennsylvania or, you know, in this area where they, hey, they want to come home and want to play in their home hometown or their home region. But other than that, if you're going to get a good player, you have to overpay or just wait out the market for bargains at the end.
- [49:11]
Meg Rowley
Well, let's, let's talk about one of the guys who they were able to bring in. And I don't know that I'd describe it as a bargain, as more of a fair contract. So they signed O'Hearn for two years and $29 million. And he's an interesting fit for them because this last season was really the first time that he has been largely, was largely platoon neutral, how are they thinking about deploying him? And what about his bat was so attractive to them?
- [49:37]
John Prado
I think originally they wanted him to be the primary dh, but now that, you know, they agreed to terms this morning with Marcelo Zuna, who hasn't played in the field at all the last two seasons, it would seem to me that Ozuna is going to be the dh, and I think they'll play o' Hearn in right field, which is easier to play a PNC park than left field, which has the spacious left center gap. I, I believe they move Brian Reynolds back over the left field from right field. And I think o' Hearn's a guy who did want to be here. I mean, you get the feeling a lot of time when guys sign here, they got to say the right thing. They don't want to come in and go, well, I had no other option, so I signed with Pittsburgh. But I mean, he seemed genuinely excited and he wanted to be here. And I get the feeling, you know, he had offers some other teams, teams that may be better than the Pirates, and he thought they had a chance to win here. But I think certainly, you know, he gives them a good professional hitter in the middle of the lineup. You know, maybe his home runs go up a little bit. I know he's only hit 16 or 17s his career high, but maybe here in this ballpark, which plays well for lefties with a short porch and right, maybe boost his home run total up to 25 this year. But. But certainly it's a good fit for o'. Hearn. He's excited to be here, and I think he's going to have a good year and be a good player for the Pirates.
- [50:58]
Ben Lindbergh
Adding ozuna on a one year deal seemingly closes the book on Andrew McCutcheon's career with the Pirates, if it wasn't closed already. Of course, that's become a controversy in recent weeks, which we talked about after he was not invited to the fanfest and expressed some thoughts about that and also not being asked back as a player. So how do you feel about how they handled their parting with him and just the idea of parting with him in the first place?
- [51:27]
John Prado
Well, I don't see where he fits on the roster and I wasn't even so sure before today's news of Ozuna, if he really even fit on the roster. It could have been handled better. I think the irony of this is McCutcheon came back here because he wanted to be part of making the Pirates winners again. And their chances of winning are better now without him on the roster with. Than with him on the roster. And, you know, I mean, he's an icon here. He lives in Pittsburgh. He married, you know, he married a woman from Pittsburgh. They have five children. They're raising them up in the northern suburbs about 10 miles from the ballpark. He's beloved here. I mean, he was the guy that turned the franchise around. And in the mid 2010s when they won't went to the wild card game three years in a row. I just think the Pirates didn't know when the offseason began if he really fit in their plans or not. And I think they probably should have communicated it to him better than they did. And you know, it's an unfortunate situation. Obviously McCutcheon is hurt. He's not spoken to the media but you know, by going by what he's put on social media. And it is an awkward goodbye to someone who again, probably not a Hall of Fame player but certainly in the realm of the Pirates, probably someone that will have his number retired someday. So yeah, it's, it's a tough one and I just think, I think Kutch kind of got a little whiny at the end going to the owner and going over to the general manager head. And I also think Ben Charrington could have handled a little better, but people skills, not necessarily Ben's forte. He's a good guy but he's very kind of bashful.
- [53:18]
Meg Rowley
And obviously the, the free agent signings were not their only additions for whatever role they may have played and ending McCutcheon's tenure. They also brought guys in on the trade market. Brandon Lau is now part of the team. They got the password from Boston. Austin Cenk Mangum is here. So talk to us about maybe let's start with Lau and then some of the other reinforcements they brought in as sort of complementary pieces here.
- [53:44]
John Prado
They made a three way trade with Tampa Bay and Houston. They sent Mike Burroughs who's a pitcher, a fairly promising young pitcher. It had a solid rookie season last year. The Houston and then Tampa Bay got involved in The Pirates Ground 3 players from Tampa Bay. I think Brandon Lyle will certainly help the Pirates this year. You know, again another left handed hitter that should benefit from playing it in PNC Park. But, but the Pirates also got a couple of other useful players. Maybe not big impact players but pieces that could help them. They got Mason Montgomery, a left handed reliever who throws 100 miles an hour and he had a pretty, pretty, pretty good rookie year with the Rays last year and he'll certainly slide into the bullpen. And another guy, he's older, he didn't make it to the big leagues until last year and he's 29 as Jake Mangum, a switch hitting outfielder who I don't think he's an everyday player and I don't think he will be now that they've added Osuna. But certainly I think he could be a good fourth outfielder. He plays pretty good defense at all three outfield spots. He doesn't have a whole lot of power but he is a good contact hitter. He doesn't strike out much, but he also doesn't walk much. But he did steal 27 bases last year. And this is a team that could use a little speed. And I think Mangum will be a nice little part time player for the Pirates. And they also got Gregory Soto as a free agent. And so now they have two lefties, Montgomery and Soto, who throws 100 miles an hour. So they've got some pretty decent players back. Maybe not the big headline. They didn't get Kyle Schwarber, they didn't get Fr. Valdez. But they did add some players and they're, they're certainly better than on paper, at least than they were last year. I think they're a little deeper. I think they're a little more talented.
- [55:37]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, they'd also like to get some more offense out of returning players. And maybe first and foremost among them might be o' Neill Cruz, who continues to be a statcast star who will wow you on particular plays. But the complete package when you look at it is a below average batter and maybe at best an average player, strikes out a lot. The defensive metrics are quite divided on him. Defensive run saves says he was a disaster in center field. Statcast says he was an asset out there. So I'd be curious about your evaluation of him and how the defensive transition has gone and how you think the team views that because there was some idea that maybe this would just be a stop along the way to an outfield corner. And then what, if anything, can they do to harness that power more effectively?
- [56:29]
John Prado
I would tend to agree with defensive run saved. I thought he was a disaster out there and I, you know, I, you know, I really. Respect, I guess is the word I want to say stat cast. But I don't know where they were coming from with their metric on Cruz. For one thing, I don't think he wants to be out there. I don't. I think he's still mad that they moved him off shortstop. Even though he doesn't say anything publicly. I, I think he felt that he could be a big league shortstop and he took a lot of pride in it. He's just not a very instinctive player, Ben. I mean, it's as simple as that. If, you know, if we took o', Neill, Cruz, the three of us, if we took him to a tryout camp, every scout at the that trial camp would be go crazy with all the tools that he has. He can hit for power, he runs, he has great exit velocity, he's fast, he's got a strong his arm as anybody in the league, but he just doesn't have the instincts of a baseball player. And in. The thing that kind of bothers me now is he's been in the league for a few years. It's not like he's a rookie or even a second year. And this is a really pivotal year for him. He's 27 years old now. He's not young anymore. He's certainly not old at 27. He's got to show something. I mean, he's got to put, put things together. I think the ships is sailed that he'll be like the best player in baseball like some people thought he might be because he's that talented or certainly maybe in the top three. I still think he can be an above average player, but he just doesn't grasp the finer points of the game. And it just, and it just hurts him over and over again. And the sad part is it never seems to ever pick up on anything. And if anything, it gets worse sometimes.
- [58:16]
Ben Lindbergh
Is there anyone else in the lineup on the bench whom you would forecast improvement from? Is it maybe Spencer Horowitz, who was injured at the start of last season? Could he play more? Could he play even better? Is there anyone else who's hanging around here who you think there might be more in the bat?
- [58:34]
John Prado
Well, I think they need to get Brian Reynolds back to his normal, you know, 25 home run, 280 batting average, you know, close to.800 OPS type form. He really had a bad year last year and it kind of went unnoticed. But you know, if you look at him the previous four season, he was really a metronome. His statistics, tactics were almost identical. In all four seasons. He's a guy you could really count on. He, you know, he's been to a couple All Star games and he's not a superstar, but certainly when he produces like he did the previous four years, he's an asset to the lineup. And I'll be curious to see two with, with the Pirates. Horowitz, as you mentioned, I thought he had a good year. You know, he was hurt early. He had the wrist surgery, right. Right before spring training. He didn't get back into the lineup until late May and he really struggled to get his timing back. And he really hit his stride into July right around the All Star break. I liked him. I think he's a good, he's a good hitter. He doesn't have as much power as maybe you wish a first baseman would have, but he is, but he is a Good hitter. He's a good situational hitter. He makes pretty, you know, consistent contact, has a good eye or take a walk. I think you'll help. I'll be curious. Joey Bart, I want to see which Joey Bart shows up this year. You know, he was the guy who was a revelation two years ago. Looked like, you know, he'd been a big bust in San Francisco. The Pirates got him on a waiver trade and he had 14 home runs and had had a good year. Not a great defensive catcher but, but made up for his offense. Last year he hit four home runs and, and he doesn't have a lot of value as a catcher if he's only hitting four home runs. So you know, they need to, they need more. The 2024 Joey Bard and also then there's always the case of Henry Davis, the other catcher and Henry who hitting 165, that's not going to cut it. And you know, it's funny how the perception of him was when his Pirates took him first overall in the 2021 draft, it was like he's a bat first player he's going to hit in the big leagues. There's no doubt. But is he going to be able to be a catcher? Are they going to have to move him to the outfield or first base? Well, now it's turned out he's an excellent defensive catcher. He sees by far better than Joey Bart. All the pitchers love to throw to him, they all love working with him, but he can't hit a lick. So yeah, those are some of the guys right off the top of my head that I'm, I'm kind of curious to see how they do this year. And also Jared Triolo at third base if they don't acquire third baseman. He, he's a, he's a very good defensive third baseman. I mean probably one step below key Brian Hayes or a half step below. He can really play third base. He's hit. He's been erratic hitting wise in his three years in the big league. So they did send him down at the off all star break for two or three weeks to trip away last year and he did come back and he hit better the last two months of the season. So if he can even be like a league average hitter with his defense at third base, I think he will be an asset.
- [61:46]
Meg Rowley
I can't believe that we've gotten almost 20 minutes into this preview and we haven't yet talked about Paul Skeens, which I suppose makes some amount of sense. What, what more is there really to say about him at this point, but.
- [61:58]
Ben Lindbergh
Trying to end on an up note. We're starting with the, the downers and then we'll talk about the pitching.
- [62:04]
Meg Rowley
Well, but I am curious, you know, Ben and I have had the chance to talk to Skeens ourselves and I think we were both struck by like, how, how thoughtful a guy he is, how considered his craft seems to be, and how open to adapting and changing and improving an already very impressive repertoire he is. So I'm curious if there's anything that you see as sort of a next step for him. Again, kind of hard to imagine given the season that he just had. But, but what are his developmental goals at this point and what are you expecting from him in 2026?
- [62:37]
John Prado
It's kind of hard to get better than he is. I mean, he had that rookie season for the ages two years ago and then he came back and had another great season last year. He really had no drop off. I think the biggest thing is will the league adjust back to him? And I'm not so sure they will for two reasons. One, he's very, very good, and I don't know if too many people are ever going to adjust to him. And two is he's not satisfied just with how he is now. He wants to be better. I mean, he wants to, he wants to improve his pitches. He wants to keep his sequencing, you know, to keep hitters off guard. He wants to study the hithers more. And you know, I will say this for Paul, is, he is, is a hard worker. I mean, this, I mean, obviously he has a lot of natural talent, but he, he puts in the time. He really cares. He's, you know, he's, he's the, you know, one of the first guys in the clubhouse every day, one of the last to leave. He, you know, he studies the game. You know, he talks to all the other pitchers about how they attack hitters. And I mean, he's a real student of the game. And he's also just very intelligent guy. I mean, he went to the Air Force Academy for two years before he transferred to lsu and, and he's just, he's almost too good to be true. The one thing I worried about with him, and I know it's not a baseball thing, but you know, he has the celebrity relationship with Livy Dunn and I, I thought maybe that might cause him to lose a little focus and maybe get, get caught up more in being a celebrity than a ball player. But he does a remarkable job of separating his private life, his professional life. And even though he's in the spotlight more than almost any player in the big leagues, he has not let that get to him at all. He's not, he has not become a celebrity. He's still, still Paul Skeins, just a ball player. And that it's refreshing to see.
- [64:44]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, I wouldn't say he seems like the most enthusiastic participant in the spotlight.
- [64:49]
John Prado
No. I get the feeling he's one of those guys when the camera's off of him, he rolls his eyes.
- [64:58]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. And he definitely doesn't look any different when the camera's on or act any different, but it's kind of endearing in a way. But as good as Poskins is, he does does not make a rotation by himself. He needs some help. He needs some sidekicks. And there are some candidates to be able sidekicks for him. In addition to Mitch Keller. Maybe we can talk about some of the younger guys and maybe we can start with Jarrod Jones, who was such a sensation early in his rookie year. And of course he missed all of last season. He had internal brace surgery. So A, when might he be back? Will there be any restrictions? And B, I guess are the Pirates hoping that he will be the guy he was in that first trip around the league or the guy who lost a little effectiveness as the league started to see him or as he fatigued or whatever it was a little later in that year?
- [65:51]
John Prado
Well, they're hopefully comes back being pretty much the same guy he was when he first came into the big leagues the beginning of the 24 season, but he's coming along well. He was at the Pirate fan festival here a couple weeks ago and he was very upbeat. He said that he's feeling good. There's been no real hiccups in his rehab and he's hoping maybe by May. I think the Pirates are being a little more conservative. Probably be June or July before he comes back in the big leagues. You know, the one thing that worries me about him is he's not a very big guy. He's not very physical and he has a very violent delivery. And, and I wonder, as good as he is, as talented as he is, if he might be better served in the long term as a reliever where he can just go one or two innings and not put as much stress and pressure on his arm. But he's an interesting guy. He's got a lot of self confidence, but he was able to back it up for the most part as a rookie.
- [66:53]
Meg Rowley
Of course, the young impressive pitchers don't end there. I want to ask about Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler and sort of what your expectations are for them this year. And maybe we can start with Chandler and how you expect that he'll be deployed because obviously when he came up late last season, got some starts but also some relief work. I know there was a bit of gnashing of teeth about his deployment there. So talk to us about Chandler and Ashcraft.
- [67:20]
John Prado
Yeah, I think when he tried to do with. With both of those is kind of soft landings in the big leagues, you know, used him out of the bullpen a little and used them as openers and just different ways kind of acclimate them into the big leagues. And I thought both did well. I like them both a lot. I, I think, you know, Chandler obviously gets more publicity. You know, he's a top 15 top 20 prospect. You know, some people will say he's one of the, you know, top. Maybe the top pitching prospect in baseball or certainly in the top three. And he's good. But I'm telling you in my mind, Braxton Ashcraft is just as good as Chandler. He doesn't get the hype, he doesn't get the prospect recognition. But he was really impressive last year. I mean, he, I mean, his stuff is good. He throws strikes. He doesn't beat himself by blocking people or a lack of command, which is. Is rare for a pitcher, you know, a young pitcher like that. And he also is not phased by being in the big leagues. He's really calm and he's really got. He's really steady for a young guy. Bubba is a little more excitable, but he's very good too. He has great stuff too. And I think both of them, they're going to be regular starters this year. Now they may get the occasional time they get. Get skipped through the rotation to, to, you know, manage the workload or anything, but I don't think there's going to be any major limitations on either pitcher this year. I think, you know, the days of, you know, coming in and bulk relief are over. I think they're going to be part of the rotation with Skins and Keller and either like Jose Rikda or Mike Clebinger or Hunter Barco, whoever ends up winning the fifth spot. But I like them both, both a lot. I like Chandler, but I think Ashcraft's right there with him. And I don't know if a lot of other people around baseball realize how good Ashcraft is too.
- [69:16]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, it's a really exciting prospect if they can get all those guys together in the rotation. At one time and keep them healthy and just go Skeens, Chandler, Ashcraft, Jones, Keller. Just an all homegrown, all Pirates drafted rotation. I mean that's exciting. That's just. That makes you wish that they had gone out and gotten even bigger bats to support those guys. But if that works out now, they just barely cracked the top 10 in projected WAR from starting pitchers, which has to do with some of the uncertainty about how many innings they'll get from those guys and then what the depth is behind them. And I guess that's an issue, right, because everyone eventually has to dip into their sixth, seventh, eighth maybe beyond that, starters. And it kind of gets thin beyond that top five for Pittsburgh.
- [70:05]
John Prado
Yeah, it really does. I mean they traded Johann Oviedo and they traded Mike Burroughs, so they certainly did cut into their starting pitching depth, which they had to do to get some offense. That was kind of the trade off for them, unfortunately. But it is, it is interesting. They have some more guys coming in the mind. Not necessarily right on the cusp of the big leagues, but they have some other good pitching problems prospects and be a double A this year and Summit A and you know, for as much problem as they've had developing hitters ever since Ben Charrington came in as GM prior to the 2020 season, they have had a pretty good pipeline of the developing pitchers. And that is something, you know, when you look at the history of the Pirates, you think of hitters. I mean, you think of Wagner, Clemente star Joe Kiner, Wayne or Trainer, you know, go down the list and there's really never been that great pitcher in Pirate history. They, you know, there's really no hall of Fame pitchers that you really think, well, he was a Pirate, maybe Pittsburgh.
- [71:12]
Ben Lindbergh
Pirates for a while in recent years. You think of. Of pitchers they traded away.
- [71:16]
John Prado
Yeah, well, yeah, like elsewhere. Yeah, he'll be. But it's just kind of an interesting dynamic because, you know, I mean, I was born and raised here and I'm 62 years old, so I've followed the Pirates since early 70s and they've always been hitting first. And this is really a departure for them to have such a strong pitching pipeline. Not that they didn't have good pitching when they won pennants and division titles, but this pitching staff has a chance to be really special in the next year, year or two.
- [71:51]
Meg Rowley
Well, I imagine that the guy they're counting on to sort of break their streak of bad luck with hitters lately is Connor Griffin, who is rocketing up prospect lists, consensus top prospect in baseball or at least the top prospect for a lot of publications. He's been extended an invite to Big League Camp. When will we see Connor Griffin in the big leagues?
- [72:12]
John Prado
I don't think it's out of the question, Meg, that he'll be their opening day. I wouldn't bet a large sum of money on it, but he is so far exceeded even their highest expectations when they drafted him, number nine overall two years ago. I don't put anything past this kid, especially after having a chance to talk to him a little bit and kind of. I don't want to say I know him well, but I at least, you know, had a chance to at least get a feel for him. And he's very mature kid that he's very. I mean, you talk to him and you do not think he's 19 years old. I mean, he just, he carries himself as much older and he's a heck of a player. I mean, he hit 21 homers, had a.333 batting average, 62 stolen bases. And you know, the thing of all that kind of got overlooked in the season he had last year, which was his first season in the in professional baseball. He only made seven errors at shortstop. So it isn't like when Derek Jeter was making 62 errors in the South Atlantic League when he was that age. Yeah, I mean, this kid, this guy made seven errors and you know, and I asked scouts because I know official scoring can be iffy, especially in the minor leagues. And I said, is he really that good? And the scouts that have seen him say, yeah, he's really that good. They wondered when they drafted him if he'd be able to stay at Schwartz shortstop. They thought he might have to move the center field. But now they are convinced he's a shortstop. And not only a shortstop, but a really good defensive shortstop. And this kid. And I try not to hype these guys too much because I've seen so many failures of the Pirates over the years, the guys that were going to walk on water and what have you, the way he has gone so far and from what every scout I talked to, everybody I talked to from outside the organization that seen him, I never like to say somebody's a can't miss, but boy, it's going to be hard for him to miss. I mean, he's that talented.
- [74:09]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, it's. The hype really has just. It's this spring, I guess it's prospect ranking season. You could have, if you were kind of a casual baseball fan, you could have probably gone last year without Hearing the name Connor Griffin, but would be tough to do that now because he's everywhere and he's number one everywhere. And even though he didn't play more than 21 games at double A last year, if you just look at the projections, he's projected to be an above average player in the big leagues this year if they did just stick him in there in opening day. So if they don't, given their other options, I guess we'll be back where we were with Bubba Chandler last year and lamenting people being left in the minors too long. Obviously he's so young and has so little upper level experience that I'm not saying that it's definitely service time manipulation if he doesn't open with the big Cub, but it's, it's hard to imagine that it should take that long for performance reasons only because there just don't seem to be many holes in his.
- [75:06]
John Prado
Game, you know, and I find it interesting, Ben, you know, and I know the focus has been on all the other positions they filled and pitching. But right now, if the season started, Nick himself would be their shortstop. And I don't think Nick Gonzalez can play short. He's not very good at second base. He had minus 11 defenses run saved last year, so I don't know how that translates him going on the other side of the bag to a tougher position. But yet I have not heard the Pirates linked to any shortstops the entire winter in trade, free agent or anything. And maybe, maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I just really wonder if they think Griffin is ready and they just don't want to come out and say it and put the pressure on the kid because like I said, they haven't even considered a shortstop. And I know they tried to get third baseman and move tree all over to shortstop, but I got the feeling they may be okay with starting the season with him unless he would just have a terrible spring. I mean, but I think if he holds his own in spring training, he definitely could be the opening day shortstop.
- [76:14]
Ben Lindbergh
And one of the people who will be making that decision or possibly benefiting from it is Don Kelly, who was the interim manager after the firing last May of Derek Shelton and then was extended got a multi year extension at the end of the season. So tell us a little bit about Kelly. I don't know that anyone was under the illusion that it was all Shelton's fault that the Pirates were not contending or that Don Kelly would be some sort of miracle worker. But how did he change things if at all. And what gave the Pirates confidence that he was the guy to try to take them over the top, Derek Shelton have a chance.
- [76:51]
John Prado
And I think Derek knew deep down he never did. He walked into a tough situation. I mean, you know, there aren't many manager jobs out there, so you take what you can get sometimes. But I will say this, the Pirates weren't very detail oriented when Shouty was the manager here. And, and last year at the beginning of the year, I mean, it just was. They played so sloppy and not the fact. I mean, I know they didn't have a whole lot of talent, but you don't need talent to at least put forth effort and do the fundamentals of the game right. And it just, it was just sloppy. They just, just didn't execute at all. And, and to be quite honest, honest, there were some guys that looked totally disinterested, like they'd written a season off two or three weeks into it. And I thought a change had to be made. And I know from the outside looking in it's like, well, why would you just make your bench coach the next manager? But I'll say this, and I've known Donnie for a long time. He's a Pittsburgh guy and I've known him going all the way back to when he was in college at Point park and Naive School in downtown Pittsburgh. He was the NAIA national player of the year and got drafted by the Tigers. Donnie's a great baseball man and he's got a wonderful personality where he connects with everybody and you know, it's like a kind of a buoyancy about him, but it's not fake like it is with some managers. He's sincere and he, he just lifts that clubhouse. Guys want to play for him. And I think players respect the fact that he, he wasn't a very talented player, but yet he got over six years of big league service time as a utility guy and he played all nine positions in the big leagues at one time or another. So I think he resonates with players. I think they appreciate his background. I think they appreciate, you know, what he had to do to stay in the major leagues that long. And, and I think he just knows Bishop baseball too. And you know, beyond just the, the personal touch, I, I think he's a pretty good manager as far as running a game, especially for somebody who hadn't managed at any level. And what I was really, really impressed about, and I think it's one of the hardest, maybe the hardest thing for a new manager is running a bullpen and I thought he did a pretty good job of running the bullpen and he got a lot of advantageous matches ups over the course of the time that he took over for Shelton and I. You know the Pirates came a multi year deal. I believe it's two years. Nobody has said publicly what it is. I think this guy has a chance to be a really good manager. I really do. And you know just the whole attitude just the Christmas was a lot better in their play once he took over. And you can never in Western Pennsylvania could can never underplay how provincial the city of Pittsburgh is when they have their own like Dawn Kelly as manager really resonates with the fans too and.
- [79:53]
Ben Lindbergh
Some new faces on his coaching staff including Bill Murphy, a younger guy who came over from the Astros. So we end as always with our what would constitute success for this team this season and there's so much promise here and they're coming off yet another seller dwelling 71 win last place season. What's the standard that they have to hit this year? Is it playoffs or busts? Are there other specific things that they have to do to satisfy themselves, to satisfy fans, to buy more people time in their jobs? What do you think is sort of the make or break things that we should judge the 2026 Pirates?
- [80:32]
John Prado
Well they keep throwing the content word out there and they think they could contend and you know it's not the strongest division in baseball so I don't think it's out of the question that they could contend. I think, I think a most realistic goal though would be to finish over.500 in show signs that they are on their way to contending here in the near future. I think, I think over.500 and I know in a lot of places this is not significant, but is it significant here? They've only had four winning seasons in the last 33 years, so finishing over.500 means more to the fan base here than it does in most cities.
- [81:13]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, I think I'll probably be watching a lot of Pirates baseball this year, which is not something that I've said a whole lot of things. Granted, the Pirates probably punched above their weight on my MLB TV habits last year just because of Paul Skeens himself.
- [81:27]
Meg Rowley
And he'll do that.
- [81:28]
Ben Lindbergh
And after he left the game things didn't go so great for the Pirates always, but I probably wasn't watching by that point. But this year with Skiins and the rest of that rotation and Griffin and everything else, there's just, there's a ton of reasons to tune in and to hope at least. And I'm glad that you will be covering them yet again because I don't know who else will in this media environment. I wonder. You've seen so much change locally, nationally, we've seen layoffs@mlb.com including the Pirates beat writer. The Pittsburgh Post Gazette is supposed to shut down this spring. It's going to be lonely for you to cover this team, and we talked about the Washington Post last year and everything else that's happening across the whole landscape. But what impact does that have on a local level, covering a team like the Pirates, where you want to hold the organization, the owner to account of who, who is going to be able to do that other than you?
- [82:25]
John Prado
Yeah. Well, it's, it's, for one, it's depressing because all these guys are friends, even though we're competitors and we're trying to beat each other on stories. When you're together as much as beat writers are over the course of a season, you can't help but become friends. I mean, you can still have that competitive advantage but be on a friendly basis to it's bad for my business when a major metropolitan newspaper is going out of business and one of the best writers mlb.com had gets laid off. But you're right about the accountability factor. There aren't many left of us to hold the Pirates accountable. And I guess, you know, I've always tried to do that. I've always felt that was my job sometime to my, my detriment because Pirates don't always like what I write. But so sometimes it's hard to get scoops. But I plan to hold them accountable and you know, it'd be nice to maybe one year not have to hold them so accountable when they win some games and you don't have to just be negative constantly. Plus, I will say this, I mean, the one thing I would like to do is cover one World Series game of mine hometown before I retire. Now, whether or not it's going to happen, I'm not betting the ranch on it, but I just think it'd be kind of a cool way to go out, especially as someone who, you know, obviously is closer to the end of my career than the beginning.
- [83:54]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, I hope that comes true for you and also for Pirates fans because they've been waiting a while too. And you can support John's work and follow his output on the Beat at Roundtable Sports and also Yard Barker in USA Today. Just look up his social media and he will link you to all his work and it's a pleasure to have you on yet again, John. Thanks so much.
- [84:16]
John Prado
Oh, Ben, Meg, it was great to talk with you and I really appreciate you having me on and it was a lot of fun.
- [84:23]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, if you're a Pirates fan, wondering what's Josh Bell up to these days, I've got good news. We're about to talk about his current team. We'll take one more quick break and we'll be back to preview the partially new look, but largely old look Minnesota Twins with the Athletics Aaron Gleeman, a.
- [84:39]
Meg Rowley
Baseball podcast, analytics and stats with Ben and Meg from Fan Grass.
- [84:49]
Ben Lindbergh
Effectively wild.
- [84:55]
John Prado
Effectively wild. Effectively wild.
- [85:08]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, it's time to talk Twins. And yes, the Twins are after the Pirates in this episode. I guess that's a sign of the state of things. Their projection slightly worse than the Pirates, their payroll slightly higher than the Pirates, but they're neck and neck and we can talk about how the Twins got into that position. As always, we will be talking to Aaron, Aaron Gleeman, who has been joining us for these Twins previews since darn near the start of this series and is a senior writer for the Athletic. Welcome back, Aaron.
- [85:39]
Aaron Gleeman
It really makes me seem like I'm just pushing that rock up that hill constantly, like there's something wrong with me, which there is. But yeah, yeah.
- [85:47]
Ben Lindbergh
And you've been covering the Twins for a lot longer than we've been previewing them on this podcast, which is also a long time. So, yeah, you've been there. You've seen some highs, you've seen some lows, you've seen whatever this is. So I guess we should talk about who owns and runs the Twins before we talk about who plays for the Twins because the former has a lot to do with dictating the ladder. We should ask you first maybe about the control person for this team who is named Polad, but it's a different Polad and the fallout from that change in terms of the leadership in baseball operations and just the whole switcheroo with we're selling the team. We're not selling the team. We have minority investors. What is going on behind the scenes with the Minnesota Twins?
- [86:36]
Aaron Gleeman
Well, okay, let's see about now.
- [86:38]
Ben Lindbergh
You can just talk for the next half hour. Yeah, we'll call it a day.
- [86:41]
Aaron Gleeman
It'll be an easy edit for you guys. About three years ago, Jim Pollad, who was a second generation son of Carl Polad, who initially bought the twins in the 80s, he had been running it. He's like in his 60s. He stepped down and, and third generation Joe Polad took Over. And they initially had some success in 2023. They snapped the two decade playoff losing streak and all that. Then they cut payroll back to back bad seasons. Last year was just a mess. So Joe Polad got basically pushed out by his own family, in part because of the on field struggles, but in part because they're claiming to have $500 million in debt racked up through, I guess, high payrolls in their mind, which is sort of laughable. But about two months ago, Tom Poled, who is the older brother of Joe Poled, took over and he's kind of talked a relatively big game about expecting the team to be competitive in 2026 and saying that they need to improve messaging and communications and all that to win back fans. But the problem, of course, as you hinted at, is they have like $105 million payroll, which is down 35 million from last opening day. It's down 60 million from 2023. And so it is kind of hard to blend those two things together where you have a new owner who I don't think is much more than a fan of baseball. He's not really a ball guy, I would say, but he's a business guy to come in and say, well, yeah, we need to win next season, we need to do this, we need to do that. And you know, their, their highest wattage move is like a $7 million signing.
- [88:16]
Meg Rowley
Sort of related to that. It's led to shakeups in the front office. So I think we were surprised by the timing of Derek Falvi's departure. No longer. The poboth has been noted. So tell us about the decision, the mutual parting of ways and sort of where that leaves baseball operations with pitchers and catchers meant to report this week.
- [88:37]
Aaron Gleeman
Yeah. So I thought there was a chance when they fired Baldelli, Rocco Boldelli as manager at the end of the season. I thought there was some slimmer chance that Fulvi would be parting ways at that point. But once they brought him back and they let him hire a new manager in Derek Shelton and they let him do 90% of the off season, I was like, okay, well, he's, he's in for another year. But I think in tandem with Tom Poled taking over like six or seven weeks ago, clearly something happened there. There was clearly some level of disagreement. My speculation is that Tom Poed wanted to kind of walk back the dual presidency that they had given him. P.O.
- [89:16]
Ben Lindbergh
Both.
- [89:17]
Aaron Gleeman
I like that a lot. Like he wanted to bring in someone on the business side. And for Falvi, I guess that probably rubbed him the wrong way because it's a bit of a demotion, if only in title, but then also if you're Falvi, this just isn't the job that you thought you would be doing. Like, it's. It's almost like the walls keep closing in on him. And I do think he's in a position just talking to people around the game. He's respected enough that I think the moment his non compete with the Twins is up, whenever that is, I think he will have no problems getting a number two and maybe even a number one job in a front office for the next hiring cycle. So part of me thinks it was mutual in the sense that I don't think there was some big blow up and, you know, a huge firing. But I think part of the it being mutual is Falvi basically saying, why do I want this job anymore? Like, what is this even? But it's very clear that that's tied to. To Tom Poled taking over for Joe Pollad roughly a month and a half, two months ago because there were no indications that Falvy wouldn't be back. And then like you pointed out, there's no way any team in any circumstance would plan to do this two weeks before spring training.
- [90:22]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Why would you want to stick around and be the Fall V guy?
- [90:26]
Meg Rowley
Oh, boy.
- [90:28]
Ben Lindbergh
So now that Falvi is moving on and Thad Levine has moved on to become a special advisor for the brewers, how would you sum up this decade or so? Whatever it was of Falvi Levine management, which obviously had some upsides and some competitive teams and some real fines, but then was so undercut by ownership in the past few years that I guess it's sort of hard to isolate the leadership versus the ownership. But how would you put a bow on that era of Twins baseball?
- [91:00]
Aaron Gleeman
I think what you said is true. Over the last couple years, it becomes very difficult to evaluate the front office on its own. He was hired in 2017, took over for basically two decades of Terry Ryan. They made the playoffs, I think, in three of his first four years. 2019 was one of the best and most fun regular seasons with the Bamba squad that they've ever had. Then they get swept out of the playoffs, 2023, they win the division and finally advance in the playoffs for the first time in 20 something years. I mean, those relative to the Twins, those are huge successes. I think overall, I would say he was above average, but not great. I mean, I think there were some very good trades, There were some very good free Agent signings like Nelson Cruz, for instance, but Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa, those ended up ultimately being mistakes that they kind of had to pay to get out of halfway through the contract. But I think, and Folvi talked about this, he did a zoom on his way out, which, you know, does lend some credence to it being somewhat mutual. And what he said a couple of times that I thought rang true was, I just really wish we could have built on the momentum of 2023. And what he didn't say in that, because he's a good soldier to the end, is I had no ability to do that. Because for them to react the way they did coming off probably the most successful all around season in two decades for the Twins by slashing payroll by 30 million, it really just gave them no opportunity to build on that. And so the last two years have been spent, you know, bargain bin shopping to an even further extent than the Twins have been used to over the years. And it's. I think if you stop the tenure at 2023, it looks pretty good. Unfortunately, everybody had to play the last two years. And I say that as somebody who had to watch the last two years.
- [92:41]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, the clock kept running. So while we're talking about leadership changes, I guess we can talk about managers too. So Rocco out Baldelli doesn't lend itself to a fall guy pun quite as well as Falvi did. But what was the end of him? Was he just sort of sacrific or were there good, reasonable rationales for letting him go? And then Derek Shelton, this, this dovetails well with our Pirates preview because we just heard a little bit from John Prado about Shelton's tenure in Pittsburgh. What are the Twins hoping for, bringing in one of Rocco Baldelli's close friends to replace him?
- [93:18]
Aaron Gleeman
Yeah, I mean, I think the end of Baldelli's tenure was a lot of just the cliche about a new voice is needed. And I think some of the things I just said about Falvi rings true with Baldelli too, where it's like, what chance did he really have with some of the rosters they put out there over the last year and a half, two years. With that said, I mean, the, the lack of player development on the hitting side is not necessarily, you know, his doing on a day to day basis, but it falls under, you know, something that you would blame the manager for. I really do think that was another situation where, I mean, him and he and Falvy are, are very good friends. And you could tell even at the time that Foley was kind of pushed into doing this or perhaps the ownership group said we need some change of some kind. Now, little do we know Folvi himself would be out. So I wonder how that would have gone. Maybe a little bit differently. But I view bald Ellie as a decent major league manager too. And I think he, like you said, he's in the Dodger front office immediately. It wouldn't shock me if he's a manager or at the very least a bench coach in the next hiring cycle. I think he never had a big blow up really in the clubhouse. I think maybe some of the messaging after six or seven years kind of fell on deaf ears a little bit. But like you said, they're bringing in Shelton, who was his bench coach in 2019, spent two total years with the Twins and is coming from Pittsburgh where he had one of the worst winning percentages of any manager with that number of games anyway. So it's tricky, honestly. A little bit like the other two levels. The front office, you're replacing Fulvi with his longtime assistant Jeremy Zol. On the ownership side, you're just replacing one pole ad with the older brother, another pole ad and then on the manager side you're replacing Baldelli with his bench coach and very good friend. And I think ultimately it's going to be difficult to expect a whole lot of substantial changes on a day to day basis in terms of bullpen management or platooning or lineup because Shelton was hired in part because he agrees with the front office and that and you know, he played a big role in the early days of Baldelli's tenure as manager too.
- [95:20]
Meg Rowley
If you had told me that the Twins were going to get a five win season out of Byron Buxton and that he was going to play what look, we have to Buxton adjust these things so we'll say a healthy season, right? 126 games and that they would have do a midseason tear down. I would have said that that's a really cruel monkey's paw. But I'm curious sort of what you saw in Buxton last year and what your expectations are for him this year because he, you know, he had a great season at the plate. He was allowed to sort of resume center field duties. What is the current state of Byron Buxton?
- [95:59]
Aaron Gleeman
Well, you're 100% right. I mean that was one of. There were a lot of things to get frustrated about with last season, but it did feel like they wasted a very good and very healthy by his standard season. And it just kind of felt like, what a shame. Now it was nice that he was an all star and he was in the Home Run Derby and now he's going to be in the wbc. So nationally he's getting a little bit of props in that regard. But yeah, that was added to the frustration. I think a lot of it was his knee was finally healthy and he had surgery three years, three off seasons ago and then two offseasons ago. And it finally, in talking to him last year, he was just so pleasantly surprised and encouraged by how he felt on a day to day basis. And for him to feel healthier at 30 than he did at 25 is kind of remarkable. And you know, his, his center field play has dropped off a little bit just because some of the raw speed and athleticism. But he was incredible as a base stealer last year. He was perfect, I think 24 out of 24 or 25 out of 25 and so great at the plate. It was a bright spot and I'm at least relatively optimistic that he can continue that because there is the idea that they finally sort of solved what the actual knee problem was. Now he's had tons of injuries beyond that specific knee problem, so I'm never going to pencil him in for 150 games or anything, but he began last season and ended last season with the same level of encouragement and optimism around just the health of that knee.
- [97:27]
Ben Lindbergh
Boy, I'm looking at the Twins transactions and there's not a ton to talk about there. So we will end up talking about some of the returning players probably. There were some players they didn't trade either at the deadline, sell off or subsequently. Joe Ryan, of course, was much in demand and they held onto him despite other teams seemingly trying to pry him away. Why do you think they drew the line where they did with the deadline deals, which there were a lot of them, but it was mostly bullpen guys. And so you could say, well, it's a quantity more than quality and they can bounce back and they can contend. Which I guess would be true if they had made any other investment in the roster. But was that the idea? Hey, let's hold on to Joe, we'll make another run at this thing. I know there's been some reporting that the new pole ads meet the new boss, mostly the same as the old boss wants to contend without actually spending anything to make that happen. So is the idea let's just give it another go and we'll at least give it until the deadline and see if we're in the running and if not that there might be more moves to make.
- [98:35]
Aaron Gleeman
That's kind of my assumption.
- [98:36]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [98:36]
Aaron Gleeman
I mean, the way they positioned it during the fire sale last July was Korea is sort of a separate entity because of the contract. They paid 30 million to ditch the 100 or so million remaining on it. They of course, haven't spent that money that they saved, but that's a different topic. They will tell you that, hey, we've built bullpens from nothing before. And so blowing up the whole bullpen and trading Duran and Jax, Louis Varlan, et cetera, while some big names and a big immediate impact, they at least have some confidence that they will be able to rebuild it on the fly. I'm extraordinarily skeptical of that given the names and the arms they have available in camp. But as far as why they didn't trade further, I think they were in talks, you know, with the Red Sox and maybe some other teams about Joe Ryan and they were very willing to trade him. They just, my understanding is they felt like the offers just weren't at a level they felt were compelling. The other thing I'll say is we don't know if they would have traded Pablo Lopez, who has is owed 21 and a half million this year, next year because he was on the IL with a three month shoulder injury. So it's possible if Lopez would have been healthy and pitching well, he might have already been traded too. As far as like, you know, the, the soundness of a decision to just go forward with sort of a half rebuild, half stay the course. I don't really understand it completely, but I do think it sets them up. If things are not good for the first three months, it's very obvious that, you know, Lopez, Joe, Ryan, Bailey, Ober, all have a year and a half left at that point under contract. They would be very prime trade candidates. You also have Ryan Jeffers, a starting catcher who's an impending free agent. And then of course you might get into the situation where Buxton finally says, you've pushed my loyalty to the breaking point and I'm even willing to waive my no trade clause where he would then be a possible trade block guy. So, yeah, I think it's not necessarily, you know, guaranteed to be another sell off. They could surprise. That's clearly what they're trying to push to fans that, that they can maybe hang around 500 and avoid another sell off. But my expectation, you know, looking at even the state of this division, which is normally not that impressive, I think they're setting themselves up to be underwhelming for three months and then another trade deadline fire sale.
- [100:54]
Meg Rowley
Oh boy. I want to give Twins fans something to hold on to here. Which makes me transitioning to a question about Royce Lewis feel kind of cruel. But I, I remain fascinated by Lewis because the book on him coming out was like, oh, if he could only stay healthy, look what he's able to do at the plate. This guy loves to hit home runs. He loves to hit grand slams. This is such an exciting bat. And then the last two years where he has been healthy in comparison to the 20, 22 and 23 seasons, it has just not come together for him at the plate. And in his, his fullest season, still not one that managed to completely avoid the IL. He was only an 85 WRC plus hitter, a one win player. So what can we expect out of Lewis at this point? Because I feel like we're, we're maybe lowering our expectations from go hit grand slams to hit some home runs. Please.
- [101:56]
Aaron Gleeman
I still believe that he has, you know, all star level upside. My suspicion is that all the injuries and it, it was remarkable, like you said, that he would just miss months at a time and come back and homer in his first at bat usually. But I think at some point that takes a toll physically. And he just seemed sort of not the same version of himself in terms of speed, athleticism. The swing got a little bit long. He, they. I think he got exploited a little bit in terms of how opponents started to pitch him and maybe wasn't able to adjust right away. But, but I will give him credit. You know, he transitioned to third base. He was once upon a time a shortstop before the two torn ACLs. And I thought he was much improved at third base last year. It's just that nobody cared because his hitting really fell off so much. So I still think he, you know, if you told me that they had another all star besides Buxton in the lineup this upcoming season, I would probably guess that it would be Royce Lewis. But I think think we're going to learn this could be kind of a make or break year for him, not in terms of his overall career, but in terms of with the Twins because he's still got a couple more years under team control. But I think there's been some frustration on both sides just with the injuries and the, you know, stalled development and the drop off. And I think he wants to feel like he's still a big part of their long term plans, but they want to see from him that he's producing at a level that can make them feel confident with that. I mean, the truth is, if he has a good first half and is mostly healthy and they have a bad first half, I could absolutely see him joining the mix as a trade deadline guy too.
- [103:29]
Ben Lindbergh
How about some of the other holdovers, guys who are kind of in that 28 range, you know, maybe former prospects who were may maybe good in some respects but perhaps haven't fully blossomed, but there's still hope. Or you know, James Outman who's around here, or Matt Walner or Ryan Jeffers who's become a pretty good catcher, or Trevor Larnac. You know, there's a bunch of guys in that sort of 28, 29 range where I guess they're sort of figuring out what they have in them and, and whether they're going to keep them around.
- [103:59]
Aaron Gleeman
I mean, injuries have been a huge detriment for most of those guys, but a lot of them just haven't developed and I think that's they've now switched out the hitting coaches three years in a row. I think Baldelli got blamed for some of that too. There's just. And you know, you didn't even mention like they've already parted ways with Jose Miranda, right. Edward Julian, both of whom once upon a time seem like kind of core pieces. And there's most of those other names that you just mentioned I think are in sort of prove it or leave mode at this point. And I think a lot of that has become a huge talking point about why do they have these first round picks who are top 100 prospects. They do well in the minors, some of them do very well right away in the majors. And then either because of injuries or stalled development or, you know, whatever the case, they just don't take a step forward. And the Twins now are basically in their third straight year of just rolling that same core group of like six to eight hitters back out there and just hoping things come together. And I would say, if anything collectively, that group's stock has dropped year over year during that time. So I mean they do have some very good prospects. Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Kalin Culpepper on the position player side that I think could join the lineup by mid season. And I think what you're going to see is whoever hits well out of that group, some of the names you mentioned, including Royce Lewis, is going to stick around and whoever doesn't is going to make way for the what they hope is a new wave that'll have a little bit more success. But you know the payroll cuts and the, the changes behind the scenes and injuries have gotten a lot of the attention over the last two years for the Twins struggles. But I think really the biggest core issue and the thing that is less explainable really than the other stuff is just why have they had this group of like a half dozen or so, you know, prime aged hitters, almost all of whom were first round picks, almost all of whom came with big expectations and almost all of whom had initial success. And then you look two or three years later and they really have no core of the lineup with that same.
- [105:59]
Meg Rowley
Group, the guys that they brought in this offseason. And we should talk about the additions that they made. Even if they are likely to end up trade bait if they hit well at all. I don't know that we'd call them prime age. You know, past their prime feels mean. But they're not young guys anymore. So what do they see in Josh Bell and Victor Caratini?
- [106:19]
Aaron Gleeman
I think Josh Bell is just sort of, you know, signs one year deals year after year, joins some lineup, bats fifth, hits 20 homes.
- [106:27]
Meg Rowley
I also have the best vibes in baseball because the way that that guy has been able to just keep stringing jobs together, like a lot of it has to be vibes, right.
- [106:34]
Aaron Gleeman
I can attest to this. So actually my editor at the Athletic, Maria Torres, who covered Josh Bell in previous years, the Nationals were in town to play the Twins like in June and she sent me to go interview Josh Bell because if he were to be traded last year, he would be the first player in major league history to be traded at four straight deadlines. And so that's a difficult topic for a person like me to bring up with a complete stranger in clubhouse. But. And so I tried to kind of warm him up with some hitting talk and stuff, but I will say I had like a 15 minute conversation that was roughly how come people keep signing you and trading you. And he could not have been lovelier in that conversation. And so I get why the Twins, if they're choosing between, you know, $7 million veteran bats, why they would have chosen Bell switch hitter, he had a good second half cut, his strikeout rate, he can definitely pop 20, 25 homers.
- [107:27]
Ben Lindbergh
There's a lot of swing speed stuff like.
- [107:29]
Aaron Gleeman
Yes, exactly.
- [107:30]
Ben Lindbergh
Is that, does that mean that he's suddenly going to break out at age 33 or whatever it is after a few sub replacement level or replacement level seasons?
- [107:38]
Aaron Gleeman
Yeah, I don't know.
- [107:39]
Ben Lindbergh
Maybe aging counteracts whatever benefit you get from that. But I guess there's reason to dream at least.
- [107:44]
Aaron Gleeman
Yes. I mean I think they were trotting out, you know, Eddie Julian and Cody Clemens and guys like that at first base last year. So I think there was if, if you're going to attempt to be competitive, you at least needed another, I would say two. They really only added one veteran bat and I think he checks that box. Obviously $7 million fits their price range and Caratini the only he also is making 7 million but the surprise with him is that he got a two year deal which is the first multi year contract they handed out since Correa three years ago. To do that for a kind of a high end backup catcher seemed a little weird. Although it sounds like he's going to play maybe 50 games at catcher and maybe another 50 games at first base DH, which is fine I guess. But also his bat, while good for a catcher is below average for first base dh. So it's a little bit of how cheap can they check the maximum number of boxes I think with both those guys.
- [108:39]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, should we talk about the pitching? I guess that might be a bit better in some respects at least. Tell us about Pablo Lopez and how he's looking because he missed a big chunk of last year, came back to make a few starts in in September. So is the hope that he will be unimpeded and back to his best self?
- [108:58]
Aaron Gleeman
Yeah, I talked to him like 3 weeks ago I guess at Twins Fest and he basically said I'm 100%, I've had a full off season. He'll be ramped up for spring training now. It's worth noting Lopez and Joe Ryan are both exiting right away for the wbc, so they won't even be in camp. Taj Bradley, who's another potential starter, is also WBC bound for Team Mexico. So it's going to be kind of a weird situation with the rotation. Lopez is if there's reason for optimism, it's Lopez and Ryan atop the rotation. I mean pretty much every team official, including the owners kind of pivot back to the strength of the rotation, both in terms of frontline quality in those two, but also just overall depth, including some of the guys they picked up at the deadline last year as kind of the basis for any optimism. And I don't think that's crazy. I mean I think Lopez and Ryan are both very good number two, decent number one type of starters, all star caliber. I think Bailey Ober, if healthy can be that type of guy and they do have, you know, some of Those prime age 25 to 28 year old arms that could fill out the rest of the rotation. But I think given the state of the bullpen and the state of the lineup that we just talked about, it's not enough to just have a pretty good rotation, which I think they have. And I'll also say Lopez missed basically half the season with a shoulder injury and ended the year with a weird elbow forearm thing. But that was just because he dove on a play at first base, so he's fine for that. But Bailey Ober was hurt for almost all of last season and tried to pitch through it with bad results. And then Joe Ryan finally had kind of a full healthy season, except he really faded pretty badly after the All Star break. Whether that was just kind of wearing down, whether the trade deadline stuff kind of wore on him, which he talked about a little bit. So I don't think Lopez, Ryan Ober as a trio is quite as guaranteed to be near the top of the league as probably optimistic Twins fans would hope. But if there is a path to have a winning record and make and be in the playoff picture down the stretch, I think at least two of those three, if not all three, have to have very good seasons.
- [111:01]
Meg Rowley
You mentioned the bullpen and how it's. That's a little bit shaky. They did make some changes there. They brought, well, they brought back Taylor Rogers. Taylor, not Tyler, Taylor. Taylor. And then also, you know, made some trades and some waiver claims. Talk to us about how that group is sort of going to shake out and what they expect to get from Rogers in this go round.
- [111:25]
Aaron Gleeman
It's strange because when they traded Taylor Rogers four years ago, he was, I think one of the more underrated relievers in the league. Probably, you know, he was an all star closer, setup man. Now he's, you know, lost some miles per hour, strikeout rates are down, walks are up a little bit. I think in a normal good bullpen situation, he's probably maybe a number two lefty, maybe a sixth or seventh inning guy. I think if the season started today, he's their closer, if only because he has experience doing that. I mean, I think, I think this bullpen group, the top of the depth chart is a 34 year old Taylor Rogers. Cole Sands, who had a disappointing year last year. Justin Topa, who's just sort of a run of the mill middle reliever. Cody Funderberg, Eric Orzi, Travis Adams, these are, you know, maybe seventh or eighth guys in a, in a normal bullpen. I do think they're going to probably add at least one more right handed reliever between now and opening day. But if you look at the free agent market, that pool is pretty shallow at this point in terms of guys you'd want to count on in the late innings. And I also think they're going to use the rotation depth and move at least one and possibly two or three starters from a group of, you know, Taj Bradley, Simeon Woods, Richardson, Mick Abel, David Festa, Zebby Matthews. There's really only room for two of those guys in the rotation after Lopez, Ryan and Ober. And I think if only by necessity they need to some arms in that bullpen who can have upside and it's a bad situation and it speaks to them trading off their five best relievers at the deadline that the best chance to kind of find late inning relievers might be sacrificing some of your rotation depth. But also almost every good reliever in in modern Twins history, including Duran, Jackson, Varlan that they just traded away have been, you know, quote unquote failed. So I don't think it's a crazy idea. I just have real questions about how quickly those guys can transition to being trusted. Bullpen arms.
- [113:22]
Ben Lindbergh
Your mention of Ober reminded me that he and Simeon, Woods, Richardson were a couple of the players who put up some sort of statement or Instagram post about what's been happening in Minneapolis. And I know that I saw a statement from Tom Pollat or I guess there was some sort of season ticket holder event where he said something extremely easy mealy mouthed about not wanting to pick sides and and how things are being gone about in this community, which is an amazing passive voice construction right now is not good strong statement from Tom Pollad. So has the team said anything, done anything? Has there been pressure put on the team? Do you think that as pitchers and catchers are reporting and maybe camp happening in Florida insulates people from being questioned about ICE and other agencies essentially invading the Twin Cities. But I wonder whether the response has met the moment or whether anyone really expected the Twins to say or do anything either as an organization or players.
- [114:30]
Aaron Gleeman
I mean it really hasn't. Like you said, it was kind of. They've tried to play the middle a little bit and comment as little as they can. I think, I think I'm not going to give them credit for that. But I will say something we've seen in the Twin Cities over the last half decade is a real change in even just something as simple as, you know, public statements compared to what was not that long ago with the killing of George Floyd And I think if you Compare Places, Fortune 500 companies or Places like the Twins, their reaction to that versus their reaction now, it is noticeably different. And I think whether that is an attempt from a PR standpoint to just not get involved and not, you know, as the cliche goes, piss off half your audience, no matter what side you take, I don't love that. I think that is sort of what they're attempting to do. I think some things you hear about the pull ads behind the scenes might suggest they would be more willing to make at least statements supporting the community. But I also think they're in a very difficult situation where everyone is very angry at them already. And so clearly it's frustrating, but clearly their approach, at least so far has been let's not get involved, let's give kind of the most nothing answers to these questions possible. I think that's probably going to continue. I go back and forth personally about whether I need the billionaires owners of teams to make statements about such things or whether I need players to make such, you know, statements about such things. I do. When I see Ober or Simeon Woods, Richardson, it does not surprise me that those are two of the guys who are at least, you know, on social media making their voice heard. And I do, I do feel good about that. But I also, I'm trying to get better personally about not holding it against players who don't speak up on that and not, you know, trying to extrapolate from there what their true feelings are or anything. But. But yeah, I would say if Twins fans are expecting a lot more on this topic from players or especially owners, I think they're probably going to be disappointed.
- [116:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, I don't know how to pivot from that to asking about another Twins player, but I will try to. One one bright spot, at least for the Twins last year was Luke Kishel, who came up. I know he was up briefly in April, but then came up again after the big sell off at the deadline and, and gave Twins fans a reason to cheer again because he had just an incredibly hot start and ended up with solid numbers in a small sample. But you know, younger guy who showed something in his first look at the big leagues, how much should fans continue to be excited about him?
- [117:08]
Aaron Gleeman
He was very impressive and I think to do that while basically in between Tommy John surgery on one side and then a broken arm on the other side is probably doubly impressive. He was very good offensively, looked to me like just an ideal, you know, table setting 280 hitter who draws Walks, hits balls into the gaps, runs well on the bases. I think defensively he struggled, particularly throwing, but it's possible that that was just because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery. Buxton, Keisha were the two bright spots last year. Offensively, they were really the only bright spots and so I do have high hopes. I think he's going to be a very good hitter. I, I have some questions about where he's going to wind up defensively and the other thing is he's, he's slotted in to play second base and I'll think, I think this season he'll get every opportunity to show that the throwing can improve the further he gets from Tommy John surgery. But just overall this defense is really stretched at a lot of positions like their, their double play duo of Kisho and Brooks Lee I think will be among the worst in the league. If they end up playing Josh Bell a lot at first base, that's pretty bad. Jefferson Caratini are poor throwing duo behind the plate and Buxton's still very good in center. But you have guys like Walner and Larnick, et cetera, in the corners who are really bad outfielders. So I think there's a lot of optimism rightfully about Kisho as a top of the lineup kind of building block guy and I think that's going to be the case. But he needs to figure out can he be a passable second baseman or is he more of a left fielder, first base dh which would take a little bit of the air out of the offensive upside. But yeah, I mean I have high hopes for him and I think even someone like Brooks Lee, who has not hit well and for through two seasons, I think can still be a pretty good hitter. But I have real questions, more so than even with Kisho, about him as a shortstop.
- [118:55]
Meg Rowley
You mentioned two of the guys earlier who might help them to bolster that outfield, but I wonder about the timing of them getting called up given sort of what the state of the team is. What do you think it would take for us to see Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez this year?
- [119:11]
Aaron Gleeman
I had hope that the path would be a little more cleared for them to kind of hit their way into the plans. But my assumption was they would trade or non tender Trevor Larnick, who's been pretty underwhelming the last two or three years. They did not do that. He's making four and a half million. Along with Walner. They also acquired Alan Roden as a corner outfielder from the Blue Jays in the trade deadline deal for Louis Varlin. So he, he's crowding that. There's, there's a real log jam of left handed hitting, corner bats. And of course, they add Bell and Caratini to that as switch hitters. You still have Cody Clemens. Now, Walker Jenkins is good enough that those guys shouldn't really matter. Like if he hits.300 for a month and a half at Triple A, there should be room made for him. But I do wonder, is it going to take injuries or an unexpected trade maybe between now and opening day to really clear a path for them to get to the majors before the second half? Because the way they moved Jenkins last year in the lower minors, I mean, he reached Triple A at 20 after being very, very good at Double A. I think they have shown a willingness to push him pretty aggressively. And the same thing with Culpepper and Emmanuel Rodriguez. With Rodriguez, it's really just a question of can he stay healthy?
- [120:23]
Meg Rowley
Right.
- [120:24]
Aaron Gleeman
Because he played all of last year at aaa. He just only played, you know, a couple months. How so? I think by the All Star break, Jenkins, Rodriguez, and possibly Kalin Culpepper should be in the mix. But yeah, it's, it's not necessarily clear where that will come and kind of what moves would need to happen or who they would have to sour on to clear room for them before that.
- [120:46]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, you know, our traditional closing question, what would constitute success for the twins in 2026?
- [120:54]
Aaron Gleeman
Well.
- [120:56]
Meg Rowley
Always a great sign when it.
- [120:57]
Aaron Gleeman
Starts with, ooh, I feel like Chris Collinsworth last night after the interception where he was just like, I don't know.
- [121:04]
Ben Lindbergh
What he was going for there.
- [121:06]
Aaron Gleeman
I don't know what they're going for here. This is. I have been trying to wrestle with what my personal definition of competitive means because Tom Poled continues to use that phrasing for what he expects of the twins in 2026. And I think to me that means 500 competitive. And, you know, everyone's mileage may vary that. I think 500 in this division will at least keep you in the mix through most of September, which I guess would be kind of a victory for relative to the payroll and the expectations, I don't know that that's going to necessarily win back fans. So it isn't that much of a positive. But I think a winning record or at least a 500 record would qualify as successful success for the Twins.
- [121:50]
Ben Lindbergh
Let me ask you this. If, if this is not a success for the Twins and if it's clear that it's not going to be one at the deadline and they do another sell off of some sort. Do you think that that would just be another temporary setback or are we talking real rebuild and years of non contention? How, how long a potential rebuild or reload are we looking at in that case?
- [122:15]
Aaron Gleeman
I mean, I am worried that if they cut payroll further they won't bring it back up. And I think we're already sort of seeing that. But I also think because of some of the prospects we mentioned and a few more, they have a pretty decent farm system, usually ranked somewhere in the 10ish range. And I think about 8 of their top 10 prospects are major league ready. Either are going to begin the year at aaa, have already played a little in the major, so. So I think even if you trade Lopez, Ryan or even someone like Buxton, you're clearly taking a big step back and that's not going to be popular. And probably for 2027 that means you're not going to be competitive. But I don't think they're that far away from having like a new young core. Now. Pessimistic Twins fans would say, well they had that five years ago and we just spent 20 minutes talking about how that core kind of crumbled. So I'm not guaranteeing anything. But I do think think they're in this weird spot where they only have like three or four like good veterans left. And I don't know that selling off those good veterans are going to hurt the future that much because the majority of those guys are only under team control through 2027 anyway. So I think one way or the other, Lopez, Ryan, you know, Jeffers, these guys are not going to be around the Twins, if only from like a payroll standpoint in 2028 and beyond. And so, so I think there is room for them to sell off those guys, add more major league ready prospects and kind of regroup for 2028. But also twins fans are understandably kind of tired of hearing about the Next Wave and the Next Core because the last couple versions of that have been pretty underwhelming.
- [123:52]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, it's always a pleasure to talk to you, even if the Twins are not necessarily a pleasure to talk about. And Aaron and Dan Hayes do a great job of covering the team over at the Athletic. So do check that out and support them. And of course you can catch Aaron on his Twins podcast, Gleeman and the Geek. Thanks as always, Aaron. It's not a season preview series without having you on.
- [124:15]
Aaron Gleeman
I would say it was fun. I don't know fun given the topic but it's always enjoyable to talk to you guys. Thank you.
- [124:20]
Meg Rowley
We didn't have fire alarms this time.
- [124:22]
Aaron Gleeman
Yeah, that's a real. Was that back three years ago maybe? Yeah. You guys did too good of a job editing that.
- [124:30]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. So I feel like you're talking about.
- [124:32]
Aaron Gleeman
It'S an inside joke for like three people. That works.
- [124:36]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. I don't remember how much of that made it to air, but one of our previews was interrupted several times by fire alarms at Aaron's hotel. Anyway, we had several dozen times fire sales to discuss instead of fire alarms. Maybe. Maybe that's an improvement. Probably not. Thanks, Aaron.
- [124:51]
Aaron Gleeman
See.
- [124:51]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Okay, one more passing of a former effectively wild guest to report. I suppose we can't call this one untimely police, but Ron Teasley, who is one of two surviving Negro Leagues players from the period that is now classified by MLB as Major league, died at 99. He played for the New York Cubans of the Negro National League in 1948 and he joined us on episode 1887. Do check that out if you haven't already. His death leaves 101-year-old Bill Greeson as the sole surviving Negro Leaguer from that major league period. One of the reasons that I like talking to former players on the podcast is that they don't live forever. Who does? And interviewing them is one way of preserving their memories and insights for posterity. Also, don't know if you need any more football content from us today, but I saw a post on Blue sky by one Scott Spratt, who linked to an article at NBC Sports that was an aggregation of an interview on Sirius XM NFL Radio and Spratt posted Devin Witherspoon revealed in a radio interview that Mike McDonald identified from film study that the Patriots offensive lineman were effectively tipping their pitches with their stances. Put that in the pantheon of super bowl coaching contributions. Here's the excerpt. Witherspoon says tape study revealed that the Patriots offensive linemen often show what they're going to do by how they line up. We had a tell on their guards and their tackles, how they like to set. They're going to overset on certain rushes. They're going to fall for certain moves anytime a group of guys get after them. And today I think we did that. You know, I'm sort of a skeptic when it comes to pitch tipping, but not so much when it comes to tape study and tendencies in football. There I think you can commonly pick things up. I don't know if this Seahawks needed the extra help against the left side of the pato line, but that would help account for why that was such a weak spot in the Super Bowl. Not that it hadn't been before. That'll do it for today. Thanks as always for listening. Brewers and Rangers most likely. Up next, you can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some pretty perks, as have the following five listeners Ethan Edgehill, Jonathan Corlett, Jason Shepard, Leonard Schlattbohm, and Nick Sandberg. Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, shout outs at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch and ad free Fangrass memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings@patreon.com effectivelywild if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphs.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Music, and other podcast platforms. You can join our facebook group@facebook.com group effectively wild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectively Wild and you can check the show notes in the podcast, posted fan graphs, or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with our next episode soon. Talk to you then. Just a couple of Baseball night They'll still be speaking statistically rambling, romantically, pontificating, pedantically bantering by bodily drafting, discerningly giggling, giddily equaling Effectively Wild.