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Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Effectively Wild Episode 2439: Season Preview Series: Brewers and Rangers
01:48:35
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- [00:01]
Kennedy Landry
Gimme, gimme, gimme.
- [00:02]
Kurt Hogue
Effectively wild. Gimme, gimme, gimme. Effectively wild.
- [00:05]
Ben Lindbergh
Gimme, gimme, gimme.
- [00:06]
Kurt Hogue
Effectively wild. This is effectively wild.
- [00:09]
Ben Lindbergh
Hello and welcome to episode 2439 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from FanGraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Riley of fangraphs. Hello, Meg.
- [00:22]
Meg Riley
Hello.
- [00:23]
Ben Lindbergh
We've got another preview pod for you today. They're coming fast and furious. We will be talking first. Well, I guess we'll be talking about the brewers first. Yes, after the Pirates, we'll talk about that too. Kurt Hogue from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel will be here and he will walk us through that team and it's off season. Kennedy Landry will then follow to talk about the Texas Rangers. Quick intro today, just a few things we should note. First, more good news about access to MLB tv. We talked about this last week and there were some initial details that suggested that there would be a few, few hoops that people would have to jump through to sign up. And I was pleased with low expectations, just that it seemed like there would not be a price hike and that if you had to sign up for ESPN Unlimited, you'd get a free trial for a month and if you remember to cancel it, then ultimately you would not be paying more. And well, we'll take it. It could be worse. It could be better too. We should not forget about the fact that it could be better. Right. Maybe it is better because what we said last week about the sign up for ESPN and, and go through this to get that that applies to new customers, which is still not ideal. But, but if you don't have an existing MLB TV subscription or an existing ESPN Unlimited subscription, then yes, you have to do that little roundabout signup. But if you are an existing MLB TV subscriber, as I imagine many of our listeners are, then business as usual.
- [01:59]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, this is quite nice.
- [02:01]
Meg Riley
Yeah, it seems like it'll just renew and then you'll have it and it'll be in the same place, same price, same app. Same app, yeah. And for, for 20 fan bases, an in market streaming option available to you separate and apart from, well, not separate and apart in the same app, but like, you know, you can, you can bundle an in market option with MLB TV and, and watch your favorite team that way. And I think it's like 20% cheaper than if you bought them separately. So we'll see how it goes. I do feel, and I'm the one who sent you the thing and it was like, hey, is maybe going to be okay? Because it felt like a, a worthy follow up and we'll, we'll post the article about it so everyone can kind of sort themselves out. But I will say we would be remiss if we did not mention. I remember last year when MLB TV didn't work on opening day. Well, so, you know, with, with the usual potential pitfalls of technology as it is currently constituted, but it does not seem like it will be maximally annoying for existing subscribers. And that's good.
- [03:16]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. And we, we have it pretty good from a technological perspective. Access to games, access to streaming, that is one thing that MLB has done well historically. MLB Advanced Media, it has been quite profitable for MLB to license that technology to other entities. So yeah, you do in fact have to hand it to them for that, I think. And we'll see whether this state of affairs persists, whether the status quo lasts. And it could just be that they're trying to ease us into. I, I know that the, the frog doesn't actually stay in the boiling water, but, but, but maybe we're the frog who does. And we're saying, ooh, the water is, it's nice and balmy, it's temperate, and look at that, it didn't actually change. And then next year they'll hit us with the worst case scenario that's, that's possible. So, yeah, stay frosty, keep your head on a swivel, but at least for now, we will not be paying more. And that's always something to celebrate. And it's, it's good for the sport because obviously there's going to be some to access, which is just the expense. And all told, it's a pretty decent deal if you're using it regularly, but not everyone can afford that. That may be unavoidable, but it's an additional hurdle if you then make it difficult to sign up in addition to pricey. And you just, you never want to have additional barriers to entry for people to access your sport and your product. So I think that's good.
- [04:39]
Meg Riley
Yeah. And you know, when, when the super bowl ended, well, we could talk about Devin Witherspoon blitzing, but I'll, I'll spare you. I didn't feel like I gave, I didn't, I didn't feel like I did justice to Spoon's performance. Um, maybe we'll talk more about that on the next Patreon pod. At the end of the super bowl, they did a, a little commercial that they were like Sunday nights, like all year, basically because The super bowl was on NBC, and so they're just gonna roll right into Sunday night baseball, and they have a bunch of NBA games and everything, so. Which is fun, but also reminded me, gosh, there's many. There are so many places one must go now if you're trying to. To watch the full suite of potential games, local and national. So we don't want to downplay how burdensome that can be financially and also, like, psychologically to have to. You have to remember all of these logins. But it seems. Do you think that frogs feel offended, like, because it. It submits a theory of frogs, that expression that has them very unaware of their surroundings?
- [05:45]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, like dumb. Yeah.
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Meg Riley
That doesn't seem right at all. You know, frogs famously pretty jumpy, you know, as. As. As creatures go. If I were a frog, I would. I would. And they. They do respond to stimulus, you know, I guess.
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Ben Lindbergh
What makes that imagery so striking, so. So useful, but also so inaccurate, I think. Not that I have personally tested this. I'm not going around, but I'm given to understand. So.
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Meg Riley
Yeah. Okay.
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Ben Lindbergh
Okay. So that's the latest on that. And, yeah, MLP up to 14 teams that it's handling the broadcasts for, and the brewers are one of them now. And there could be more to come. There will be more to come, I'm sure, if. If Rob gets his way. So just a couple other quick things. I know we mentioned that we don't have to talk about all the little smattering of signings that reach the start of camps, but. But one that I do want to single out, even though we will eventually get to it. In the preview segment for the Detroit Tigers, is Justin Verlander coming back? Turning to Detroit?
- [06:49]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
And this has implications for the Tigers and for the AL Central, but also most importantly for the effectively wild free agent contracts over underdraft, because this closes the book on my roster. So I had Verlander. I took the under on him at 22 million, which was the trade rumors prediction. He got 13, reportedly. I think 11 of that is deferred until after 2030. But that doesn't matter for our purposes. But. But that's under. So I get some credit. So I finish at a total score of 257 million. You are sitting right now at 197 with one name left on the board, and that is a name that a lot of people are in pursuit of, seemingly Zach Gall. Mm. You took the under on Zach Gallen at 80 million.
- [07:41]
Meg Riley
I did.
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Ben Lindbergh
And so this thing could be close. This thing could come down to the wire here potentially. And Chris Hannell at, over at the EW Stats Blue sky account has already been on top of this. But basically this will come down to Gallon and if he signs for less than 30 million, you could win this thing. And as noted by Raymond Chen, effectively wild wiki keeper, if he signs for exactly 30 million, actually you would still win because Trent Grisham's qualifying offer signing was not for 22 million on the dot, but for 22.025 million, the qualifying offer amount. And so yeah, if we go out to, to that number of decimal places, then if gallon signs for 30 or less than you will win. And that's conceivable, right, because with every day that goes by, it's possible, of course guys will get hurt and there will be new needs and everything. But pitchers don't like to sign well into spring training. Teams don't like to sign pitchers well into spring training. We've seen that that sometimes can come back to bite guys. So maybe right, if he, if he settles for a pillow contract as opposed to a trampoline contract, a multi year deal. And most of the trampoline players have been coming of good years and Gallen is coming off of a down year, a bad year. So he is kind of a classic pillow contract candidate. So if he were to sign for, let's say he signed a $1 million deal.
- [09:14]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
30 million or less would not be unrealistic for him.
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Kennedy Landry
Right.
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Ben Lindbergh
That would have been surprising a couple years ago, a few years ago. But coming off of the season he just had, that's, that's in play, I.
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Meg Riley
Feel conflict because I don't want to gallon to lose out on money just so that I can win.
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Ben Lindbergh
I don't nothing really.
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Meg Riley
Right. Tangible value, you know, I mean this isn't the only thing, but it's certainly one of them, which is, I'm not, you know, really. I mean, we want to entertain people. I'm doing it for honor. I'm doing it in part because I think you've shown you cannot be trusted when you win drafts anymore. Just a maniac giving Adrian Brody.
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Ben Lindbergh
It's not the routine win that I.
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Meg Riley
Okay.
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Kennedy Landry
Hey, hey, hey.
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Ben Lindbergh
Once in a lifetime, one of a kind mirage.
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Meg Riley
Shoosh, shoosh.
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Ben Lindbergh
Hey, you talked about the Seahawks for half an hour. I could talk about my minor league free agent draft miracles for more than that.
- [10:20]
Meg Riley
So anyway, I mean I have to do like a service win basically to prevent a maniac from running amok. And as an aside, if you're going to Give an Oscar speech like that and then be in super bowl commercials like, you owe me money, Adrian. Like, send a check. Anyway, I want him to get a good deal, but I, I do think that, you know, a win is at least possible because it's February 10th. Like, you know, they're. Yeah, they're reporting, they're reporting today, some of them, you know.
- [10:53]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, he projects to be upwards of a two win player, so really, if he's settling for a one year deal, he should probably get at least that much, if not more. But I don't know. We'll find out. I, I think that the odds are still in my favor here, but it's in play and this competition has gone through just so many ups and downs and seemed to have a clear winner already set and then an upset and a surprise. So this is, it's worked out in a pretty fun way. So we will talk about Gallen when he signs and not only for our draft implications, but also that. But, but nice pickup for the Tigers too. I mean, it's, it's nice, you know, sentimentally, it's, it's really cool to see Verlander, his career come full circle and come back to Detroit, but also they could use him. And yeah, it's not, I think they're the best team in that division, but they're not head and shoulders better. And Verlander, you always need more pitching. You always do, as I always say. And, and he started last season not so hot, but then he got good as we covered, and he was a productive pitcher down the stretch for the Giants. And the Tigers do have now the number two projected rotation in baseball. And it's great when it starts with Scubo, but when suddenly it's not just Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize and Reese Olson, but it's also from Valdez and Justin Verlander. So kudos to the Tigers, whom we had taken to task for being somewhat, well, not aggressive this off season. And they've made up for it late. They also picked up Austin Slater on a minor league contract. So, yeah, this is, this is great. Always like to see a homecoming like this for a legend like Verlander. But also it's not purely a farewell tour victory lap. Nice for the fans. It's. It's not a, I want to retire as a Tiger and I'm signing a one day contract. It's signing a one year contract. And there's reason to expect that, that he will be a productive pitcher for them.
- [12:47]
Meg Riley
Yeah. Does this make you feel more confident that this is the last year, though?
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Ben Lindbergh
Yes, I think so. But, but it depends how that year goes. So we will see. Okay. And you know, lots of other just traditional rites of spring. We get the blurry beat writer photos. I've seen so many of those. I saw one with Tristan Casas in Red Sox camp with a ski mask on, just like from a distance, looking like the yeti sighting or something. I guess that's one way to just avoid sunscreen or just, I mean, he always soaks up the rays, so I don't know if he's worried about, about the sun or what. But that's, that's a move I would make. Just put on the ski masks because I won't burn otherwise. But also just the routine announcements. Alex Cora announced that Garrett Crochet will start opening day for the Red Sox. Shocker. Yeah, well, assuming he's healthy, I don't think that's much of an upset. And then of course, the injury revelations.
- [13:41]
Meg Riley
Yeah, not.
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Ben Lindbergh
Not only for pitchers. Francisco Lindor may have to have surgery for, for a hamate bone and that would take him out of action until opening day or so. So he's out of action I guess, either way. Not only not participating in the World Baseball Classic because of other reasons, but also that that's not ideal, but also pitchers, they are the worst offenders and victims of that training, spring training. And Spencer Schwalenbach has right elbow inflammation and he's maybe just dealing with bone spurs, but he's going to miss some time and he'll start the year on the 60day.il and Atlanta fans, I'm sure are thinking, here we go again. I thought we were going to bounce back. I thought everyone was going to be healthy this year. But we'll cover that on our Braves pre preview as we will cover on our Blue Jays preview. Injuries to Anthony Santander, who's having shoulder surgery. He'll miss several months. Bowden Francis is having UCL reconstruction surgery. He's out for the year. The year didn't start yet. I mean, the year did, but the season didn't. Not even the Grapefruit League season. I think it might be the most demoralizing time for a team to suffer an injury. Okay, on the eve of the playoffs, perhaps, but the day pitchers and catchers report. I once wrote an article at the Ringer about how rampant pitcher injuries tend to be in the spring with the headline pitcher reports to pain and Suffering. That's what's happening here. Or if not reporting to pain and suffering, then at least reporting pain and suffering. But this is supposed to be a fresh start, a blank slate. Hope springs eternal, but sadly, so do ucls. I guess ucls spring eternal. But yes, gird your loins, psych yourself up for the annual just cascade of pitcher injuries that befalls us every spring and hope that somehow your team avoids the worst. Because sometimes it's it's guys, they're ramping up, they're getting hurt. Sometimes it's just a lingering injury that everyone thought was gone. Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water or on the mound and then it strikes in an off season of rest didn't actually address the issue. So yeah, we hope that this will the Butcher's bill will not be too bad this spring. And the last thing I'll say, we are about to talk about the Caleb Durbin trade from the brewers perspective and we can talk about it from the Red Sox perspective next week when we do that preview. But one of my colleagues and editor at the Ringer noted that this kind of closes the book in a sense on the Rafael Devers trade already in terms of the direct returns for Devers. Because if you look at the guys that Devers was traded for, Kyle Harrison goes to the brewers in this deal. He was one of the players that the Red Sox received in return James Tibbs. Of course they flipped quickly six weeks after that deal. The prospect in that deal for Dustin May, who is now in St. Louis and then Jordan Hicks was also traded recently. So he's gone. So the only direct proceeds of the Devers trade is Jose Bayo, who's a minor league pitcher who was in a ball last year. He's still around. And of course it's it's not as if the trade tree, the branches are still growing and flowering perhaps, you know, because there are still guys who who came in the deal for Hicks players to be named later and other minor leaguers in there. And you can give some credit for Durbin to Devers because Devers brought back Harrison. So these things will extend. But it is kind of just in terms of, you know, unless Baio turns into something, then you're not really going to get anything back directly from Devers because he didn't get much from Harrison and Hicks last year. And part of that was was salary relief. Part of that.
- [17:14]
Meg Riley
I was going to say that deal was as much about the money as it was anything else, arguably more so.
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Ben Lindbergh
So yeah, and I'm not here to dunk or re dunk on the Red Sox for that trade. I Don't really want to rehash and relitigate the whole. Well, they got themselves into that situation by being so bad about how they explained the position move to him. And also.
- [17:34]
Kennedy Landry
Right, yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
Whose fault was that? And was it their fault more or his fault more? And, and maybe at that point they just had to deal him because that relationship was unsalvageable or something. We don't have to. It was. It's only been. He was traded in mid June. It hasn't been that long, but it has worked out in a way for them or at least things have worked out for them in the aftermath of that deal. I don't know if the deal is why, but they had a higher winning percentage after trading him than they did before, which was not because they traded him necessarily, but it didn't preclude them from playing well and making the playoffs. And then they did sign Roman Anthony to an extension subsequently. And you know, he gives you the potential jersey guy, the guy that you can get attached to unless and until they trade him someday down the line. But that was one of the issues with trading Devers, like who can we count on? And he was supposed to be the guy who would stick around. Well, now you have younger guys you've signed to extensions and they've signed several guys to extensions and also they've been pretty aggressive this off season, whether it was with signing Suarez or bringing in Contreras or Gray or others. So they have not necessarily spent way more money or reinvested all of that cash, but they've. They've spent it. I'm not saying that anything they have done since they couldn't have done and also kept Devers. And it's hard to think that they really would be worse with Devers or would have been worse last year when they were struggling to hit late in the year in the postseason. I'm just saying it hasn't been a disaster. At least this has been, I guess, as close to a best case scenario you could come up with for the Red Sox making the playoffs post DES deal and also projecting to make the playoffs and be pretty good and exciting now without des. And Devers is still good and was good for the Giants and should be good for them too. And who knows, maybe they'll both be better off without each other or at least okay without each other. It's just, it's kind of odd that things have kind of closed that quickly in terms of the accounting for that trade and the proceeds, the return, at least the actual players involved in that transaction.
- [19:37]
Meg Riley
Yeah, I think that's what happens when the deal is motivated so much by the money piece of it, you know, you're just likely to have greater levels of transigence transitions.
- [19:48]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, there was some intransigence before the trade. I guess that's what went to the trait. Maybe.
- [19:53]
Meg Riley
But transigence, a peripatetic future.
- [20:00]
Ben Lindbergh
Sure. Yeah, sure. Itinerant, peripatetic, whatever. Yeah, transients.
- [20:06]
Meg Riley
Yeah, Parapatetic.
- [20:09]
Kennedy Landry
Anyway.
- [20:09]
Ben Lindbergh
Okay, well, more on Devers, maybe, and also the Red Sox certainly next week. And more on Caleb Durbin right now, because we're about to talk to Kurt Hogue about the Brewers. We will bring him on after a brief break and then we will return with Kennedy Landry on the Rangers at the end of the episode. Did a Richard Love lady ever strike a Taylor Teagard? And who had more war, Jason Kendall or Russell Martin?
- [20:33]
Kurt Hogue
What if Shohei Ohtani's dog was also a good lawyer?
- [20:36]
Ben Lindbergh
What would you do if Mike Charger.
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Kurt Hogue
Showed up in your foyer?
- [20:39]
Ben Lindbergh
Or is it foyer? Find out more Effectively Wild. Find out more Effectively Wild. Find out on Effectively Wild today. Well, we are joined once again by Kurt Hogue, who covers the Milwaukee brewers for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Also podcasts about them at the Milwaukee brewers podcast. Milwaukee Brewers Microbrew. Welcome back, Kurt. You are in a van. Not an unmarked van. You have not been abducted by the podcast. It is your own van. Nonetheless, that's where you are. And here you are.
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Kurt Hogue
I am in a 2005. Not to give away too much personal information to the Internet. 2005 Toyota Sienna in Wisconsin. It would be better if I was in sunny Arizona, but not yet. I still have to endure the winter.
- [21:29]
Ben Lindbergh
And that was license plate number. Now, we won't force you to disclose that, but happy to have you wherever you are. And there's a rich history of recording inside motor vehicles, parked motor vehicles. To be clear on this podcast, that's how Sam Miller started way back when, in his Honda Fit. But we're here to talk about not your car, but the baseball team you cover. And that baseball team had the best record in the regular season of all the teams last year made it to the nlcs. And yet, as we look at the projections, the Pirates are projected to be almost one win better than the brewers at fan graphs. The brewers are projected to be almost one win better than the Pirates at Baseball Prospectus. So I'm sensing a theme here. How do you explain this? And we did our Pirates preview yesterday, so you don't have to talk about how good you think the Pirates are. If you want, you can talk about how bad you think the projections from the pointy headed eggheads pocket protector wearing nerds that fan graphs and Baseball Prospectus are. And that's why they play the games. I know you're a crusty old columnist. That's why we have you on here. But what does it say about the brewers? That. And really more relevant than where they are relative to the Pirates. It's where they are relative to.500, which is very close in the projection.
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Kurt Hogue
No, you're right. 2026 is actually the year in which I earned my BBWA stripes. I'm, I'm trying to be more mad. I'm trying to create more beef. So, yeah, Baseball Prospectus, John Judge, all you, you bozos. 80 wins for the Brewers. Really? It's good. Hey, it's, it's good fodder for Pat Murphy.
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Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, yeah, that's, that's, that's locker room material. That's. They never believed in us.
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Kurt Hogue
And if there is a manager in baseball who is going to repeat that, no matter who's in the room, it is the two time reigning National League Manager of the Year.
- [23:27]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, that's going on the bulletin board for sure.
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Kurt Hogue
It definitely caught some, some national media attention from, from the fellow scribes at the nlcs, you know, the people coming from Los Angeles or just, just the national folks. And they're like, wow, he, he, he's really hamming up this underdog card. And it's like, yeah, he does that against like the Nationals in August. This is, this is just how it is. So I'm sure that's great for the Brewers. I am also sure that their internal projections are much higher.
- [24:00]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Kurt Hogue
Which kind of. I think it's in. I think they're a really fascinating case now just as an organization for, on many fronts, but this is certainly one of them of like, how are they valuing things that they're clearly. They're right about most of it, as you can see by their records the last few years. And they've been kind of on that record they've expected to be good. That we as a public are not yet on. They won 97 games last year. They were third in run scored. And yet you look at the offense and the way it was set up and you're like, that's not. That team should not finish third in run scored by any of the underlying metrics. Not even just the underlying metrics. Just some of the basic, some of the basic metrics would tell you that too.
- [24:42]
Ben Lindbergh
So, yeah, it was interesting because, yeah, if you look at the underlying numbers, the Pythagorean record or the bass runs or whatever, they weren't wildly off the fundamentals and what they should have been. It wasn't like they were fluky or playing way over their heads in that respect. But when you look at where the runs actually came from, it was kind of confounding because it was just a lot of beating out routine grounders. And granted, they ran hard and they have a bunch of speedsters, and so maybe you can do that, but it was still sort of an optical illusion when you watched it sometimes until the nlcs, when it wasn't, I guess.
- [25:16]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, the NLCS was not a great, a great showcase for what Milwaukee brewers baseball was. I mean, they were legit. Like, they didn't fluke their way to 97 wins. No, they, for four months last year, I would say maybe three and a half months, were kind of taking their foot off the gas. Played phenomenal baseball. They even slugged for some, some, some bits of that. And like, they are clearly trying to play this way. So you can't. At least I don't knock them for like, they didn't just default into, into this type of winning. This is the way they are trying to play. And it probably worked out as like a 95th percentile. Best outcome last year. And then obviously we're going off of like how we view it, how the public views it. And then the projections are kind of going off largely a lot of that same, same logic. And they're going to say, yeah, the brewers are going to win 80 games this year, which feels low. I don't know like what they're over. Under win total is. I'm sure it's going to be higher. But like, we kind of do this dance every single year where the Cubs used to be the Cardinals, but now it's the Cubs are, you know, the projections like them more. And look, if you're just looking at the names, you're looking at the offenses, are you going to disagree with that? Like, the brewers, you're banking a lot on. They run a really clean operation. We've seen it happen before. We have doubted them before and they have thrown egg at our face for four months and I would like to not have egg on my face anymore.
- [26:49]
Meg Riley
Well, they've thrown egg on your face a little bit. But. But someone who might feel a touch defensive about public projections would also point out that haven't been to the World Series now, have they?
- [27:03]
Kennedy Landry
Right.
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Kurt Hogue
That's right.
- [27:05]
Meg Riley
And I don't want to be antagonistic toward the brewers, but I am curious.
- [27:09]
Kennedy Landry
Sort of what your sense of embrace the beef.
- [27:12]
Ben Lindbergh
Just like Kurt.
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Meg Riley
I like Kurt. Kurt's so nice.
- [27:16]
Kurt Hogue
I can't, I don't have to be the representative. You can start your beef.
- [27:20]
Meg Riley
Yeah, it's going to be me and Pat Murphy directly.
- [27:23]
Kurt Hogue
Yes, that, that would be good. That would be great. Yes.
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Meg Riley
But I am curious, sort of, as you talk to folks in their front office, I'm sure that you're right that their internal projections are a good bit higher than ours. And I think that we are happy to acknowledge the places where, you know, projections tend to either be conservative or under, underappreciate the impact of something like, you know, really clean and good base running. The, the sheer depth that they are able to bring to their roster. And so I imagine that their internal projections are a good bit higher. And by many important sort of metrics, they were quite successful last year. But they do have this persistent seeming issue of not being able to make their way through the gauntlet of October against clubs that have similar depth and maybe higher ceiling talent at more spots on the roster. So as they are thinking through not just like, how do we win the Central, how do we, you know, maybe secure a buy in the National League, but how do we, you know, finally sort of make it to and win the World Series? How, how do they talk about that disparity when they're trying to put the, put the roster together?
- [28:38]
Kurt Hogue
When I'm thinking about how the brewers are thinking about it, like, they just, there is no, there is not much black and white with this team. Like, even, you know, they trade Freddie Peralta. There's, so there's nuances to that. They do this bizarre Caleb Durbin trade three days before pitchers and catchers officially report. Like, there's, that's not a black and white deal. And when I think about how to answer that question, Meg, I would say that they are not going about like, taking the next step in the way that most organizations would think about taking the next step, even the small market ones. And I think the brewers have, like, if you think about 2018, when they came off, they made to Game 7 of the NLCS against those vaunted Dodgers and then they went out and they, they re signed Mustakis. They, they signed, yes. Moni Grandal. Like, those are too much bigger free agent additions than they, they signed every other winter. But, but this is going to be my fifth year covering this team since I've been on this beat. I put a list together. I put a list together for you guys. These are the hitters that have signed to fully guaranteed major league deals in the off season. Free agents. It's Pedro Severino, it's Andrew McCutcheon, it's Brian Anderson, not the announcer, and it's Reese Hoskins, which is kind of the aberration there. And like, they sort of just did that on a, On a whim when ownership kind of like, decided to spend specifically on him. So they. And they don't. They don't trade their prospects either. Like, who's the best prospect they've traded that Matt Arnold has traded. Is it Estuary Ruiz for Contreras?
- [30:22]
Ben Lindbergh
Worked out quite well.
- [30:23]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
- [30:24]
Kurt Hogue
Or you'll free Rodriguez, who's, like, not even ranked in the Red Sox. They traded him for Quinn Priester last year. So, like, they seem to be. And if you listen to them talk too, like, they do believe in this process, and that process seems to be. We're going to keep doing the bytes at the apple thing, to quote David Stern's maybe infamous line after they traded Josh Hater, but they're also doing it by, like, stockpiling apple snatchers. These baseball players that grab fruit, they're not trading any of them. And so you could go out and I don't know, like, get C.J. abrams or whoever or go get e Stock praise. And maybe they will by the time this comes out and will look foolish, but they haven't done any deals like that. So it feels sort of like they're saying still their best chance to win it all is keep taking the cracks at it and keep trusting your development, which I think we have to admit is pretty dang good. And then, you know, when all these, these, these horses, the, the Cheerio and Maday and Miz are like, at full bloom, then you'll actually have the guys to beat the Dodgers. And in the meantime, you know, maybe you have a crack at it.
- [31:31]
Ben Lindbergh
I did just look at the over unders at one prominent sports book, which I'm generally loath to do. But as a point of comparison, they have the over under for the brewers at 84.5 and the Pirates at 77.5. So that might be a bit more like people are expecting those teams to be ordered at least, but still not an imposing prediction. So, yeah, this off season has been sort of more of the same. And while you have the brewers taking bites at the apple, you have David Stearns going to the Big Apple. He bites at the Big Apple, he's handing out the big money. And the brewers, correct me if I'm wrong, but. But the only non minor league free agent they have signed this off season is Akil Badu, who's on a split contract. I think. So, yeah.
- [32:16]
Kurt Hogue
Badu did not make that list because it's a split. It's a split deal.
- [32:19]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Yeah.
- [32:20]
Kurt Hogue
I guess it depends on how you characterize a qualifying offer, because I'm sure the brewers will tout that as a big free agent signing. They spent 23 million on a guy. But I truly. Yeah, I think the spirit of it. I think you're right.
- [32:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. So Woodruff comes back, but beyond that. And there was plenty of trade activity, but the brewers were generally shipping out the more prominent players in those trades, which isn't to say that they didn't get good guys back, but that speaks to either some level of confidence in what they have, or some level of penny pinching or some combination of both, or just this proven model, this kind of conveyor belt of talent that they have engineered here. So I. I do want to talk about the young guys they traded, because that's be more surprising in a sense. You know, we joked about how many Rookie of the Year candidates the brewers had, and they ended up having four guys get votes, and then they traded two of them. The. The top two vote getters, Caleb Durbin and. And Isaac Collins. And Collins I kind of got. Durbin was more surprising, both the timing and the decision to trade him at all just a year after they have traded for him in the Devin Williams Nestor Cortez deal. Anyway, there are a lot of trade to talk about, but maybe we should start with the most prominent player, which was Freddie Peralta. And there were just rumors following him all off season, if not before. And yeah, we've seen this play before with Corbin Burns and Williams and. And it's worked out for the brewers before. But this also did feel like a situation where. Well, aren't they better though, with Freddie Peralta right now? And don't they have championship aspirations and don't they need a guy like that? So. So I guess it's just the same old idea. This. This works for us. We keep kind of churning in that Ray's brewers way and. And we will continue to.
- [34:08]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, that's ultimately where it lands, I think. I think the Freddie Peralta deal is. Is certainly different than the Caleb Durbin one. Like this is just a way of operating by the brewers that isn't.
- [34:23]
Kennedy Landry
I mean.
- [34:24]
Kurt Hogue
I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say it's not financially motivated, because if it was financially motivated, they would, like, show that they're willing to spend a little more money. But what I mean by that is, like, they're not trading Freddie peralta to save $8 million. They are seeing, like, oh, like we're going to get a lot of surplus value on the back end here for one guy who's coming off, let's face it, like, they're selling high on Freddie. You know, his. His season, if you look under the hood, wasn't entirely different than some of his past years, but the results, the results worked out great for him.
- [35:00]
Ben Lindbergh
So, yeah, I always wonder, though, everyone knows that though, right?
- [35:04]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah.
- [35:04]
Ben Lindbergh
Like, David Stearns is the guy trading for him, so he knows that, too. So are you actually selling high or is everyone kind of on the same page? I don't know, but I see what you're saying.
- [35:13]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah. I mean, when you get Sproat and Jet Williams, like, I'm comparing that to, like, the Corbin Burns return. And maybe the Corbin Burns return is a little like. Like looking at it through a little bit of. I can't fully put my 2023 glasses or whenever that deal was back, I can't put those back on and remember how I felt about Joey Ortiz and Dale hall at the time. But it sure feels like Jett Williams, Brandon Sproat is as good, if not better than that return for a guy who, I mean, Corbin Burns was a better pitcher at that time. So I think that's probably how I would look at the return there. And, yeah, they're just going to continue to stockpile this young talent while still competing, and it keeps working. So it's difficult, like I've said, to. To really knock it, but there is that, you know, that floating thought in the back of your head of like, is this. Is this going to catch up to them? But it. It hasn't yet. So it's like, do I just defer to the wins and losses? Do I am deferring to the Authority? The authority in that way? Because every year, you know, Vegas, 84.5 wins for Team Legends, 197.5 and is mostly the same. That's a pretty, pretty stark drop off.
- [36:26]
Meg Riley
Well, maybe we can talk about Spro and Williams specifically, because you're right.
- [36:30]
Kennedy Landry
Like, the.
- [36:31]
Meg Riley
The sort of broader conversation about how the. The brewers go about constructing their roster and their approach to churn and whatnot, I think can sometimes swamp what about these particular guys, makes them comfortable and sort of excited to trade someone like Peralta. So what, what did they see them and what did they expect them to bring this year? And maybe as you're addressing Williams, let's maybe specifically say whether his addition is what facilitated their comfort with trading Durbin. Because it does kind of feel like, well, you've got a new Caleb Durbin at home.
- [37:08]
Kurt Hogue
Well, what they saw was Jett Williams is like five, eight, right.
- [37:14]
Ben Lindbergh
He's always like a whole inch, whole inch taller. Maybe he is.
- [37:18]
Kurt Hogue
I mean, it was, it's, it's like, it's not, it's kind of not really like even a joke. Matt Arnold, on the, on the zoom with reporters yesterday talking about the Durbin deal is like, yeah, we talk with Murphy and like when we send out a guy who plays our style of baseball, we want to bring in a guy who plays our style of baseball. So, you know, they lost Durban, but they got David Hamilton who was like, right. Oh, that guy's a Brewer.
- [37:40]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
- [37:40]
Kurt Hogue
And Jet Williams. Are you kidding me? He might be like, like sell freely, spot atop the par rankings, might be threatened this spring by Jett Williams. But no, like, they like the versatility. I have some questions about like, how much the versatility, what really is the versatility. We need to see him be good at one of these positions. Yeah, but they're, they're confident that he can handle something if not multiple spots. It is different than a lot of other, there are other grinder type kids. Like, there's legit juice in the bat and the offense really does need that. And yeah, to the Durbin point, like reading between the lines of what the front office is saying, they're sort of taking the gamble that, that Jet Williams plus, you know, whoever else, maybe Hamilton, they can be as good as Durban this year because they're sort of looking longer term with this deal and some of the left side infielders that they have coming up, like Ma Day and Pratt and Andrew Fisher might make Durbin, like, they might push him off pretty soon, but, but 2026 still matters. And so that is still absolutely a gamble that you're taking unless you go out and you know, break from your mold and do go trade for paradise or I don't know, like, does Casey Schmidt do it for anyone? Like, I don't know what other names are out there, but yeah, that's what they like. That's what they like in Jett Williams and why it allowed them to, in their minds to move off Durbin.
- [39:05]
Ben Lindbergh
I think the Giants were just eager to upgrade from Casey Schmidt. So But. But yeah, I kind of understood the Collins trade if we want to put that in the sell high bucket because he was a rookie. But he'll turn 29 before the trading deadline and you could kind of look at the trajectory of his season or the underlying stats and say, well, maybe that was the best that we're going to get out of him. Durban surprised me more, though. You make a good point that they have good prospects coming up there. But that is one area where the projections are doubters. And the brewers project to be the 22nd best team at third base, with Ortiz getting the bulk of the playing time according to the depth charts, and then 24th at shortstop with Williams getting the bulk of the playing time there. Granted, they are just above the Red Sox in both of those categories at both of those positions. And the Red Sox just acquired Durbin, so I don't know how much that would have actually affected things from a projection standpoint. But I would like to stat blast this at some point because it must be fairly unusual to trade two top four Rookie of the Year finishers in the same off season. Yeah, immediately after that. But I guess it is a testament to just how much young, controllable talent the brewers have developed that they can part with players like that, which a lot of teams covet, players like that.
- [40:28]
Kurt Hogue
Do you think Chad Patrick is like texting, texting the front office, like, guys, do I need to pack my bags.
- [40:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Next if I do? Yeah, I mean, I guess he lost his rotation spot at some point, so maybe, but probably the Miz is safe, I think we can say. And he barely got onto that leaderboard. He was 11th in Rookie of the Year voting. But yeah, it's, it's quite a lot of turnover. Should we talk about any of the other guys that got back in these deals either for Collins or Durbin? Do you want to talk about the returns for them?
- [40:59]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, we can do some, we can do some quick hitters. I mean, the thing about the brewers, when they, when they target a pitcher of this sort, like a guy with some pedigree in the past, or maybe not even necessarily, like, I'm thinking Quinn Priester had some pedigree, they usually have something in mind that they will do with them. And for the most part they've been right. Like, it's not just Priester, but you know, there's other guys too, whether it's Tobias Myers or Coleman Crow, who's on the 40 man right now that they've targeted in some of these lower level deals. Robert Gasser is Another one that comes to mind, these guys that they've targeted and then it's worked out well. I think Brandon Sproat sinker is going to play great frankly in front of this defense. And then Kyle Harrison is, he's a little different in just like the, like the brewers aren't, aren't the big four seam, big breaking curveball or sweeper, you know, whatever they classify his, his breaker as. So he's a little different than they're, you know, they're Chad Patrick, Quinn Priester, Bren Sproat type pitcher. But there's a lot of pedigree and a lot for them to work with there. And then I'm also interested in Shane Drohan. Don't mess with him. The, the other piece of this Caleb Durbin trade, the more I've looked into him, that's a really interesting mix with I think like four pretty good pitches, a couple of them that are really good and like the brewers have done a lot more with guys that have a lot less. So I'm not, I'm not sleeping on what they can, what they can do with him. Although admittedly, like, admittedly some of this is we're doing the Tampa Ray Rays. Who did they trade or love this trade for the, for the Rays. Like oh, what picture do they get? Oh, I love that guy. This. So there's a little bit of that going on. But like I think as, as objectively as you try to view it, it's some pretty good arms.
- [42:52]
Meg Riley
Well, maybe we can talk now about some of the guys who are familiar faces to brewers fans. Not the guys they've jettisoned or the new ones they've brought in, but some of the old or quite young standbys and I hope you can help us sort of unravel the mystery of Jackson Trurio and what kind of player he is. Because it was up and down season for him in his sophomore effort he had to deal with injury. If you look at his, his top line results, it's not a bad year. Wasn't a bad year for him. Like he was a three win player by our reckoning and above average hitter. But you know, I think that there was a hope that having emerged as one of the more promising Jacksons, that he would take a step forward and maybe claim the mantle and didn't really have a chance to do that. So what went wrong and what do you expect he might do to a course correct in this third year in the major? So.
- [43:48]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, well, I mean it was kind of a Similar season to his rookie year in that he started slow. And he started slow because he didn't take a. He couldn't take a walk. Like, he didn't get to a three ball count, if I'm remembering correctly, for like the second home stand of the. So it was like two weeks into the season, he didn't get to a three ball count. It's a tricky balance because the brewers need more guys who are, like, willing to swing the bat and want to seek out damage.
- [44:11]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [44:11]
Kurt Hogue
Yet with this kid, when he's controlling the. If he's controlling the zone, he's going to be a superstar. It's really that simple. Like, he can get to almost anything in the zone and do damage with almost anything in the zone if you make a mistake. I think about the homer hit off palencia in game two of the NLDS. I think it was maybe down two strikes and he got 102, 101 something in that range up in the zone. He just, with ease, sends it out to center field. So there's still so much about his game that is loud and makes you feel like, okay, this guy, you know, he may not be a center fielder, but like 3.54 win left fielder, that's a really good player. That's an all star player. And there's still more ceiling on top of that. So. So with Jackson specifically, it's. It is about controlling the zone somewhat and really honing in on some of those swing decisions because he gets into these ruts during the season that are predicated on that. And obviously the league is adjusting to him. And he, he, he, he works his way up. When he, when he first blew out his hamstring against the Cubs. And when was that? Like, like, right. It was right before the trade deadline. He was surging. It was looking like, oh, he's going to finish 850 ops kind of thing. And then, you know, he misses a month. So it's in there. It's not a sure thing he'll ever get to the top end, but he's not that far away. Everything you could want to see is in the package.
- [45:35]
Ben Lindbergh
William Contreras was the sixth most valuable catcher in baseball last year by Fangraphs were he caught the second most innings after J.T. realmuda. And he did all of that with a broken left middle finger that he had surgically repaired right after the playoffs. So he just flipped the bird to the whole idea of being at all debilitated by that injury. And it was a bit of a down year for him as valuable as it was. So how much did that hamper him and what did he have to do in terms of preparation to play through that? Because he suffered that injury. Was it in 2024, before the season even started? I mean, it wasn't like, well, we can'. Have surgery now because I'll be out for the playoffs or something. Like, he played the whole year with this injury.
- [46:21]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah. William Contreras is one, one tough dude. Absolutely. Absolute gamer. And yeah, I mean, this injury affected him most of the season. I think he suffered it in either April or May, like pretty early. And you could see his power numbers. He just wasn't hitting for, like, he couldn't even hit any doubles. It was clearly affecting him. But the options were get surgery and, you know, you maybe missed the whole season or you just play through a broken finger on your catching hand that you know it heals and then you catch a foul tip in the wrong spot or late in the year against the Cardinals, someone swung and hit him in the hand and this is just what he battled through. So, yeah, to finish sixth in WAR among catchers despite that. And it really did limit his offense, I would think. His defense also took a step back. Some of the framing numbers. He was great his first year in Milwaukee and it's dipped a little since then as his offense has gotten better. And I think that's probably true for a lot of catchers anecdotally. But if that's a guy who can actually get into the launch part of his swing, that's a top two catcher, top three catcher. Him and Cal are certainly at the very, very tippy top of that conversation for catchers. And he also sets a tone for the pitching staff for the whole team and, and playing every day through his finger and like, never, never, ever, ever fussing or, or making a big deal out of it, like, just downplaying it to frankly, like, insane amounts where it's like, yeah, it doesn't bother me. Like, no, dude, your finger is broken. I think that mangled finger that you are showing me is bothering you. But healthy William Contreras would be big because this offense don't got too much slug.
- [48:04]
Meg Riley
Well, well, maybe an unexpected source of slug. Certainly an unexpected source of slug for them last year was Andrew Vaughn. I don't know if I've ever been more flummoxed by someone's first and second half splits. And I know that, you know, it was. There was a little bit of up and down for him, but he had it. He had a 63 WRC plus in the first half and a 131 WRC plus in the second half. I think that the, the, the brewers pitching development gets a lot of credit, as well it should. But was this just like a, a massive player? Dev1 for the hitting side. How did, what did they, how did they do that?
- [48:42]
Kurt Hogue
Dude, sorry, I wish I had a good answer for you, but they did. He did. I mean like his swing decisions got a little better that dub that 131 WRC plus. I don't have like his X wob or anything in front of me, but digging into it a little this offseason and I think he went five or six weeks to end the regular season without homering. Hit a hit a few in the playoffs. But like he was unlucky in the final month or so of the season too, where like he was crushing the ball right at people. So it was as legitimate of a bizarre 2 month, 3 month breakout as you can have, which inherently, like, is going to raise questions about how legitimate it was. And I just wish I had a bet. I like, I wish I had better answers about how Andrew Vaughn did it. He did swing a. He did swing at better pitches a little bit, but it was bizarre. The brewers don't do this. They, they, they do it with pitchers. Like they'll turn Jared Koenig into a eighth inning guy who, who you can't hit. But they don't really do it with hitters historically.
- [49:43]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, one pitcher they did it with last season was Quinn Priester, who was picked up from the Red Sox but had failed to launch with the Pirates as prospect. And we talked last time about the history of Pirates pitchers failing to launch or at least scoring elsewhere. And he's the latest, I guess that was a pickup that. I don't know if a lot of people had huge expectations when they traded for him. They just needed reinforcements in the rotation. And then he went on to be a stalwart and really valuable for them. So how did he do it and can he keep doing it?
- [50:16]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, this is where we haven't said the name. Chris Hook, the Brewers pigeon coach. Like when you're trying to figure out some of the magic and how are they doing this? I do think he's one of the names you should, should talk about because look, there's a consistent theme, right? They get a guy like Clint Priester, they make a couple small tweaks to his delivery and suddenly, you know, the, the control, the command issues that he had. You know, they went away during the final 20 starts of the season. I think they won like 18 or 19 straight that he pitched in. Which pitcher? Wins are back, baby. If you're Quinn Priester, I freight pro led the league in wins. The brewers were.
- [50:52]
Ben Lindbergh
So did the Brewers.
- [50:53]
Kurt Hogue
That's right.
- [50:54]
Kennedy Landry
So.
- [50:54]
Kurt Hogue
So they tinker with the pitch mix a little. But ultimately, like Hook and the brewers pitching development just seem to have a lot of the right answers with these guys when they're identifying things. And it's easier said than done. Going out and putting it to practice with a human being and being like, this is what we need you to do. Here's a tweak and then having it actually work as you envisioned it. So they do deserve a lot of credit for, for how they turned Quinn Priester into a legitimate like number three starter last year.
- [51:24]
Meg Riley
Tell us about the Miz, the expectations from a workload perspective for him this year and sort of what developmental goals you see him having in year two.
- [51:34]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, there's, I mean, look, there's a lot on Brandon Woodruff this year as like the only dude who has 50 big league starts under his belt in the entire rotation. I mean, they've got like 11 decent options, but none of them have experience. But there's a lot of on, on the Miz taking the next step, too. The workload question is a very, very interesting one. Obviously there's going to be, you know, that concern whenever you have a guy that's that big and puts that much torque on his body. For the most part, he has been able to stay pretty healthy. There's always going to be a question of how deep he's going to work into games. And he's, I mean, he's just probably not going to be a guy that pitches in the seventh inning or consistently, maybe even into the sixth. But that, that might be okay because that, look, that's the modern game. There's a real chance that, that this guy takes that next step. This year. We saw him turn a corner in the postseason. If he's going to be bigger, he's going to be stronger. So they have very, very high expectations and they kind of showed that as well last year. Like what their belief in him is because at the end of the year, he, he, his results were not good. There were some big blow up outings after coming off the injured list in August.
- [52:48]
Ben Lindbergh
Brewer.
- [52:49]
Kurt Hogue
There were brewers fans that were legitimately mad when they announced he was on the playoff roster. And he turned out to be probably their most important and their best performer in the playoffs. His outing at Dodger Stadium was impeccable until he ran out of gas there at the end. So they believe highly in Miz and just what his stuff what he's capable with that. And so just like more consistency I think with the control is what's important because it's not like he can't command or control it. He can. He just runs into these extended blips that really cause the damage. So that's the big question for him coming forward is the consistency in controlling it.
- [53:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, let's talk about Woodruff, who really was pretty impressive in that he just returned from an extended absence after the shoulder surgery and picked up more less where he left off, but then also missed the playoffs after suffering a right lat strain in September. Obviously the brewers were confident enough in his health and durability to extend that qualifying offer to him. So is he expected to have no restrictions both in terms of the injury that sidelined him late last year and just his usage in general with an eye towards hopefully preventing future injury?
- [54:06]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, that's theoretically. That is theoretically the plan. He was talking about this before. I mean frankly before that injury late in the season that this is going to be a healthy off season. And like it's always been 2026. That has been the year where he's Brandon Woodruff again in terms of the Velo because he just couldn't sustain it or even get to that level that much last year. But the thing about his 2025 is even while throwing 93, 94 he was really good. All the peripherals like his, his strikeout to walk is with the best of his career. He just really figured out how to command the ball. There are reasons that the brewers have like out of all the guy all these pitchers that have come through he's the one that has stuck around and they've been willing to, you know, pay him and, and, and they trust him as well as like, like I just mentioned on my last answer, you need a guy who's like at least 30 someone. You need someone for all these, these young pitchers. So he's going to be doing a lot of non mound things with, with Miz and I think he's really important to misses development too. Like he's a really. He has a good way of speaking to Ms. Like he speaks Miz E's.
- [55:21]
Meg Riley
So he plays Pokemon is what you're saying he does.
- [55:23]
Kurt Hogue
Well no, that's Trevor McGill on this team. So, so there's a lot, lot on his shoulders this year being like the, he's the ace and also like the daycare leader.
- [55:37]
Meg Riley
I'm sure that he'll be thrilled to hear that.
- [55:40]
Kurt Hogue
Sorry, Wu.
- [55:41]
Meg Riley
I mean, maybe we can. Maybe we can round out the pitching by talking about the bullpen a bit, because this has been, you know, an area of strength of the brewers for a long time. Was a good unit last year, has been supplemented a little bit by bringing in Zerpa from the Royal. But tell us how this sort of shakes out, particularly, you know, as they're leading into Uribe and Miguel.
- [56:04]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, this is the area of the brewers that hasn't really taken. I mean, Nick Mears is gone, but they haven't really taken any hits to. To this unit. They have a lot of really, really intriguing options, and the bullpen should once again be a strength. I'm curious to see how they ultimately deploy Aaron Ashby. Like, if they hadn't gone out and got all these stars starters that he maybe could start. But sure seems like he's at his best when he's coming in and giving you two innings. I would say every other day. But, like, Pat Murphy uses him every day, especially in the playoffs. If you need a guy to start, he will open the game for you. But they have a lot of options on top of him. Zerpa is a guy that really liked and went out and got. Trevor McGill was not traded this off season. I'm sure they had a lot of discussion around his name. Abney Rebate seems to be the closer in waiting. He. His 2025 was. Was a big step forward for him in multiple ways. Like he was an afterthought in. In so many regards. In 2024, there was a suspension. He also had a suspension at AAA that he had to serve. He got hurt. And then just like you couldn't have asked for anything more from him in 2025 to the point of like, oh, yeah, this guy's going to be the closer pretty soon. So again, it'll be a strength. The brewers brought back most of their guys there. That's kind of just how they've operated like a good bullpen every single season for a while now.
- [57:28]
Ben Lindbergh
It strikes me that we've reached just about the end of this preview, and we just have not even invoked Christian Yelich, who was often maybe the lead question in Brewer season preview segments, just, what is he going to be? How good will he be in that period where we were all trying to wrestle with, wait, is he the best player in baseball, or is he actually not that good? And can he stay healthy? Healthy? And now, I guess the expectations are just a lot lower. And he's 34 years old and probably the brewers are pretty pleased that he is at least settled into staying on the field. He played 150 games last year and being worth playing, right, because he has three seasons left plus a buyout on by the Brewer standards, his giant contract. And if he can keep playing at this level, then he's worth it, more or less, right? Which I guess for a team like the brewers that only spend so much, to not commit that percentage of your payroll to someone who is unavailable or unproductive is a boon. So even if he's not the MVP level Yelich, you'd probably be pretty satisfied with what he has turned into in the back end of his career here.
- [58:41]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah, there was some time there where the thinking was this contract might turn into an albatross and the brewers just can't really have that in in future payrolls with the way they operate. And like I'm not saying he's, he makes what like 2324 ish million a year like on the open market now he's not going to get 3 years and 70 to 75 mil, but maybe a year 1718 million to be a pretty consistent and available DH. I don't know exactly what the market. So like yeah he's, he's delivering a decent to good amount of production on that salary, which is very important. And again that's why Brandon Woodruff is so important this year. We, we kind of have shifted away from, from the what is Christian Yelich conversations which took up the most of the of the time for the brewers between like the offseasons of 2022 and 24 because he's played at a, at a pretty high level at the plate the last two seasons. Although the back injury shortened his really, really, really good 2024. This is who he is now. We, we feel pretty confident in like him being a known quantity on this offense. You got 25 homers, OPS probably hovering somewhere around the.800 level. And like there's also probably some intangible value to Christian Yelich as well that maybe it got a little more notice this, this past season with the brewers being so good. But he is sort of the guy that, that sets the tone quietly for this entire team. And he posts every day and he puts his head down. He's a hard worker and like he, as silly as it is, like he handles the media and all those obligations really well and understands what his role in the organization is.
- [60:31]
Ben Lindbergh
So would you call him a daycare lead Leader.
- [60:35]
Kurt Hogue
Yes.
- [60:36]
Ben Lindbergh
Him and.
- [60:36]
Kurt Hogue
Him and Woodruff.
- [60:38]
Ben Lindbergh
Co counselors. Yeah.
- [60:40]
Kurt Hogue
Co counselors of Pat Murphy's day school is. Is what they are on this team. They're the elder statesman. And I apologize to them for saying that because we are about the, the same age.
- [60:53]
Meg Riley
I'm. I'm not trying to like, you know, give. Give the Miz a hard time. He just had such a childlike exuberance when he, when he pulled a charizard that I.
- [61:04]
Ben Lindbergh
Hey, Pokemon' 30 this year, it's a lot older than the Miz.
- [61:07]
Kurt Hogue
They have a lot of really young players on the team. There's no way around it. Like, there's constant. Constantly. I look at Jackson Churn like, this guy's like 21.
- [61:15]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [61:16]
Kurt Hogue
And he's a veteran now by their standards.
- [61:18]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah.
- [61:18]
Meg Riley
Going into year three. Well, you've, you've given me a nice transition back into an even younger guy who you mentioned in passing. But we'd be remiss if we didn't like, set expectations for brewers fans about Jesus Made, who did get an invitation to big league camp, but is only 18. What do you expect his promotion pace to look like this year?
- [61:41]
Kurt Hogue
I think he's on the Churio schedule, but there's also. But his game is a little more refined than Cheerio. Took a while at Double A to get going and then the next year debuted. Maddie's game is a little more refined. He doesn't quite have like the top end power ceiling that Cheerio is climbing towards, so perhaps. And also his defense at shortstop is from, you know, all the reports and everything you see, like, pretty good. So maybe he, he can move a little faster, whether that's a Triple A or the majors. But I would tap the brakes on, on Jesus Ma. Day 2026 major leagues but like, he's not that far away from being able to, to play in the major leagues. Like, if he's doing it at 19, that wouldn't surprise you.
- [62:26]
Kennedy Landry
Me.
- [62:26]
Ben Lindbergh
Okay. Well, our final question, as always, is what would constitute success for this team this season? So it's, it's a team that's coming off the best record of baseball, NLCS appearance. So I guess, you know, there's not that much better than that you can be. But. Yeah. What do they have to do to not only beat these pessimistic projections, these conservative projections, but also satisfy themselves and fans.
- [62:54]
Kurt Hogue
Yeah. I mean, hey, look, if you ask the projections, 82 wins is a successful. The brewers. They live in this gray where it is challenging for me to, to like, I've been, I've thought about what I'm going to say to this. I wrestled with a little. You can probably tell. I'm like in between last year, I came on here and I said, win it. Win the division and win a playoff series. They did that. So, right. Like, what's, what's next? Making the NLCS scan, Making a World Series, Winning a World Series, that would for sure be successful. But is that a little unfair to the, you know, the team in the smallest market in baseball? Like, it's only a successful year if you are one of the last two or four teams standing. Maybe, maybe not. I guess you can, you can answer that on your own. But here's, here's where I think I've landed on it. Right. Like, and I have, I've even talked in this way on the pod that, like, there's this underlying tone when we're discussing the brewers that like, there's a ceiling to this process and maybe that's unfair because of the Dodgers series and we've seen them lose in the playoffs a bunch, but that is certainly something that keeps coming up as they're not making their team like, clearly better for, for the next year. I'm again in this like, nebulous land where, but here's. Okay, here's, here's where I'll, where I'll, I'll, I'll settle with it. This is going to be tough to. This might be a little on the harder end of determining if, if they achieve their goal or not when you guys go back and, and, and, and look at this. But so, so sorry in advance. It feels to me like they're screaming out their plan which is our best bet to win a World Series is stockpiling all these guys, Madde, Miz, Cheerio, Pratt, et cetera, et cetera. And then, and in a couple years we will have that top end talent that can compete at the top level of the postseason. And then in the meantime, we'll be a good team that gives ourselves a bite at the apple, quote, unquote. The randomness of baseball playoffs, which I haven't seen with the brewers. It feels like they haven't been on much of the positive end of the randomness. So there is that, but it feels like that's what they're saying. If we're going to win the World Series, it's going to be with the best team of 24 to 29 year olds. Olds, maybe like 19 to 29 year olds with MA day, but that we can possibly assemble. We don't want to lose any of them. We want to stockpile as many of them. We have a good team now. We can be a great team. So I would say a successful year for them is, is continuing to show that this method, their approach, is working now, and it can work even better while maintaining legitimate optimism that in the next five years they will win a World Series and this, this machine that they're building will fully realize it's. It's a planet Killer Death Star ability. I don't know if it's going to happen, but, you know, like, they're clearly not just building for 2026, even while trying to win in 2026. So they're just like, they're just so hard. They're just hard to talk about sometimes, and it's my job talk about them.
- [66:02]
Ben Lindbergh
So that's.
- [66:03]
Kurt Hogue
That's unfortunate, but there's a lot, a lot of nuance, and I hope I have not bungled the brewers too much.
- [66:09]
Meg Riley
I do love how much we torture people with this question.
- [66:14]
Kurt Hogue
It is, yes.
- [66:15]
Ben Lindbergh
It's really an existential struggle for you to field that one. I hope that you didn't spend. Spend the whole off season dreading that.
- [66:22]
Kurt Hogue
I don't want to come on and just say, make the playoffs. That would be successful. Yes. So you could put that, I guess, if you want. I did say it. But, but there's, there's, there's, like, more with involving the brewers than just your standard, like, yeah, make the playoffs, win the division, don't win the division. There's just a lot, a lot going on here.
- [66:39]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, I appreciate the nuance. It's a little nebulous. It might be tough to grade, it's true. But I do appreciate making it a bit more complicated than just, well, they have to win a pennant, they have to win a World Series. Obviously, they should try to do those things because they never have won a World Series, and I'm sure it'd be nice for them to do that, but it is tough to do that. You can have. It's the whole process versus results question. You can do so much right, and then a few games go wrong in one playoff series, and the whole season was a failure. It's a tough standard to hold anyone to, despite the history of the franchise. So I understand your struggle, and thank you for taking it on even though you knew it was coming. You can read Kurt's coverage at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, you can hear his podcasting about the brewers and see if his answer to that question evolves over the course of the season at Milwaukee Brewers Microbrew. And you can find him usually outside of his podcasting van. Thank you, Kurt.
- [67:41]
Kurt Hogue
Of course. Thanks for having me on again.
- [67:43]
Ben Lindbergh
All right. Much as one of the baseball hobies Hobie Milner did last year, we're moving from the brewers to the Rangers. Hobie Milner's now with the Cubs. We won't be talking about them today, not for a couple weeks, in fact, but in just a moment, Kennedy Landry joins us to talk Texas.
- [68:00]
Kurt Hogue
We're gonna crunch those stats. We're gonna talk about baseball sticky stuff and torpedo bats. We'll talk about it all. If you want good takes on baseball and life, just tune in to Ben and his lovely co hosts, Ben and Meg. It's effectively wild.
- [68:28]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, Rangers pitchers and catchers reported to spring training today, Tuesday, the day that we're recording this. And so reporting from spring training is Kennedy Landry, who covers the Rangers for mlb. Com. Welcome back, Kennedy.
- [68:42]
Kennedy Landry
Yes, thank you all for having me. Happy to be here.
- [68:44]
Ben Lindbergh
Happy to have you back. And much like the team, we just talked about the Brewers. Not a ton of high profile free agent activity this off season, but some notable trades to discuss. So maybe we can start there before we get to the returning cast and we can lead with the trade that sort of opened up the off season's business, which was an intriguing one for one, with some cash included, too. But Marcus Semyon going to New York for Brandon Nimmo. What did you make of that one? And why did the Rangers make that one?
- [69:16]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, I think. I think we were all kind of just as shocked as the rest of the baseball world when you see that. Especially, you know, Marcus Simeon has been a pillar of this organization since he signed that megadeal going in the 22 season. And it was shocking, obviously. I was actually at a Cowboys game that Sunday night and it really threw off my night. When you have to text a bunch of sources and write a story from the corner of Jerry world, that shows just how shocking it was. But I think the Rangers offense has needed a bit of a boost these last couple years. And Marcus Simeon, not the only one who was struggling these last couple of years, but did have a bit of an offensive downturn following his all star season in 2023. So two straight years of kind of struggling to put it together at the plate. I know his last two months of last season, he looked more like the Marcus Simeon that we knew, but it still wasn't quite enough to push that Rangers offense to get them into the playoffs, finishing 81, 81 last year. And then I think Brandon Nimmose, a pretty notable name in the National League in New York. He's obviously been a lifelong met for so long and he really does fit right into this Rangers lineup. Goes right probably leading off most days and going into the outfield where they Rangers also non tendered Adoles Garcia. So they needed another high powered offensive bat going in the outfield. So it was, you know, a swap that I think worked well for the Rangers, especially with some of the infield depth they have coming in.
- [70:44]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, how do you diagnose that offensive swoon which has been sort of surprising? It's been I guess a combination of injuries and guys taking downturns sort of unexpectedly and people who were maybe hitting over their heads. But what has happened to the Rangers offense because you got to diagnose the problem before you can fix it.
- [71:04]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, I think you said it best. It was injuries and regression. I think you look at a guy like Corey Seager who the offense is, he's the engine that keeps the thing going. And he, you know, played 104 games, I think it was last year. And even up and down the lineup you have Wyatt Langford with a trio of oblique injuries with where each time it felt like he looked like a superstar. He's on the injured list again. You have Evan Carter who has not been able to stay healthy at all since, you know, blowing up to prominence since 2023. Jake Berger, who the Rangers traded for last offseason to play first base, never got off the ground with some injuries. And then even a pair of guys like Josh Young has not lived up to his 2023 rookie season. Jock Peterson, which is quite. I don't even know know what to say about Jock Peterson's last year hitting under.200, I mean the entire season coming off his best, the best offensive season of his career. I think a lot of people, the Rangers included, were kind of struggling to figure out how to fix, you know, Jock Peterson specifically. But then the entire offense as a whole, you know, they're, they brought in some new voices, some couple of new hitting coaches on Skip Schumacher staff hoping to have more of a unified vision, a collective mindset going into this season. But it really has been a confounding two years on the offensive end for the Rangers.
- [72:23]
Meg Riley
Well, we'll talk about their other big trade in a second but let's stick with the hitters for a moment because some of this turnover has also been at the catching position. The non tender Jonah Heim, who I Swear if he would just grow the hair back out, it would change for him. I think it would turn around. I think we. I think we're dealing with the Sampson situation, but brought in Danny Jansen, obviously still have Higashioka on staff. So talk to us about the catching position and sort of how that's going to shake out for them this year.
- [72:52]
Kennedy Landry
Catching depth is something that the Rangers have kind of severely needed and still do need a little bit of. When you look at even the upper levels of the Miners, they don't have many guys that you look at and say, like, hey, if we need another person to catch some innings, if, you know, Higgy or Jansen get hurt, somebody that can come up and do that, they still don't really have that at the moment. They have some good depth pieces that they got, you know, waiver claims and minor league deals, but there's still a little bit missing there. Despite the fact that I think this is a really solid tandem of catchers behind the plate. I think Higgy learned a lot about this pitching staff last year. I know there's still a bit of turnover, especially in the bullpen, but the pitchers really do seem to trust him. I think he's a really good veteran catcher and people speak highly of him everywhere. And Jansen comes in with a little bit more pop in his bat than Higgy has and being able for the two of them to pretty much nearly split the playing time behind the plate there and hopefully both help the offense and help this pitching staff that was of the best in baseball last year.
- [73:49]
Ben Lindbergh
We will stick with the offense, I suppose, for the moment. Sorry, mackenzie Gore, we'll get to you, don't worry. But let's talk about Carter then, who was on the field a little bit more last year than he had been the year before and played a little bit better, too, but still not exactly what people were hoping for. Still maybe just about as valuable in 23 games in the 2023 regular season, let alone the postseason, as he was in. In this past full season. So he's still so young. He is just 23. So what's the outlook for him, health wise and performance wise? And I assume the two are intertwined.
- [74:27]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, absolutely. I think when you look at, you know, 23, 24 even, you know, in 22 in, in the minors, for him, there was a lot of kind of degenerative back issues that you really don't like to see from a guy in his early 20s and that that was a lot of what kept him off the field. It felt like last season he was on the field obviously a lot more able to get a little bit more consistent at bats at the big league level even after he didn't. Even if you remember correctly, he didn't break camp with the big league club last year. They felt like he needed to, you know, get more consistent bats against both righties and lefties before really contributing at a consistent pace last year. So, you know, I think he was doing really well. He was facing more lefties at least, you know, having better at bats against lefties. That was something that even back when he was a pro prospect he was not very good against left handed pitching. And that is something that he has really never been afforded much of the chance to even have those opportunities. Because I think when the Rangers are a competing team, when you look especially early 24 and early 25 and things are, they're still in the thick of the competition, you can't often afford a 22 year old to strike out on three pitches against a left handed pitcher or whatever. So he really just hasn't had a lot of opportunities against those left handed pitchers. But talking to him a couple of weeks ago at a, at a winter caravan stop, he was just like, hey, if I can hit.300 against right handed pitching, it doesn't really matter what I do against left handed pitching. And I don't know if I'd go that far. But I think he, he is making a good point that if you, you know, earn, you earn your keep against right handers and then you will keep getting those opportunities against lefties and you know, before the, the injury that kept him out for most of last year, that those final six weeks was a, a broken hand after being hit, hit with a pitch in Kansas City. So that does at least seem like the back issues that plagued him for so long have at least calmed down. In a way it seems like he's put on a little bit of weight, trying to get stronger and faster out there in center field and hopefully being able to put things together at a consistent pace at this level that like I said, he hasn't been able to do yet in his career.
- [76:32]
Meg Riley
Well, maybe we can highlight the bright spot in the offense or at least one that counts as there's not many of them. Yeah, it counts as a bright spot. Although like everyone else on the rang, Wyatt Langford spent some amount of time injured last year, but seemed to, you know, have a pretty consistent year at the plate. He was a four win player. He played well defensively. I'm curious, sort of what the next step for him is and how you think the playing time across the outfield positions is going to shake out. Because I know there's been some talk that Langford might continue to see time in center field, where I think he was better than a lot of prospect evaluators maybe thought he would be. So. So talk to us about Wyatt Langford.
- [77:11]
Kennedy Landry
Wyatt Langford is already, I think, the second best hitter on the Rangers right now. You know, barring Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford, even with the. Those few injuries, those few oblique injuries he had was on the field for longer than Corey was last year. So there was a kind of sense that last year, as the year went on, like, it seemed like Wyatt Langford was the guy that, you know, you wanted to talk to after wins, after losses, whatever that may have been. Obviously, obviously, he's also young. I think also only 23, still only played 30 minor league games. So I think every single day has been a growing point for him since he's been broke camp at the big league club a couple years ago. I think number one is going to have to be getting those oblique injuries down. I think he's a big, strong kid and swings with a lot of force, a lot of torque, and that's where those obliques come in. And think once he gets that together, you can see him playing, you know, 150, 160 games a year. As far as the outfield configuration goes, I think that's going to be a very interesting situation because none of these three guys, Carter, Langford and Nemo have, I guess, the arm, I would say, to throw from right field, especially out at globe by field. So I think Wyatt Langford has played phenomenally in left field and even in center center, which is fascinating for a guy not four years ago who was a catcher at the University of Florida before moving to the outfield in his sophomore season. But I think Evan Carter is probably the most natural center fielder. And if you have Langford and left and Nimmo has to play right. But again, none of these guys have the arm that you would like to see form from your right fielder. So I think we'll see how that changes up depending on if Carter has to sit against the left hander or whoever else that may be, the outfield configuration is going to probably be one of the more interesting things that we see throughout spring training and how that playing time is distributed against the three spots.
- [79:12]
Ben Lindbergh
Josh Young produced more WAR in 2023 than he has in 2024 and 2025 combined. Sensing a theme here, he was at least on the field for most of the season. So what's the outlook for him to bounce back with the bat and also stay healthy?
- [79:29]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, I think again, last year was the healthiest he's ever been in his career, even across the minors. And it was also probably one of his least productive seasons. When you look across the whole season, he got sent down to AAA last year for the first time ever since he made his MLB debut. And I think, think, you know, both Bruce Bochy at the time and Chris Young in the front office in the coaching staff really just wanted him see, to see him get his mindset right, get back to, you know, doing the things he does well, you know, driving the ball pull side and you know, getting into the gaps, all fields and all of these things that it just felt like he was not able to do much at all last year. You know, he was, he was expanding the zone when he didn't need to. He was watching pitches down the middle when he didn't need to. And I think, I think they thought that sending him to AAA would help reset him. And I don't, I think it had the exact opposite outcome for him. When you look at how the entire season played out. I think you saw spurts of the guy that he could be like he was in 2023 and like, you know, when the Rangers drafted him back in 2019. But it hasn't been able to really extrapolate across a full season again because of the injuries, but also just because of, of the mental side of things that he went through last year. So at a Winter Caravan event a couple weeks ago, he said jokingly, a bit self deprecating, but he said, I think I need to handle things a little bit better. That's what he took from last year. And I think he is a very mature kid. I don't know why I called him kid. We're the same age. But I think he learned a lot about how to handle a little bit of the adversity that he's had his last few seasons. I think, I think he knew how to handle adversity when it came to the injuries because he's had so many of those. But when it came to the, the mental side of all the struggles that he went to and you know, getting sent down to Round Rock, he, he didn't really handle it as well as I think he would have liked. And I think now that he's gone through that, he's had the off season to, to, you know, he enjoyed an offseason, big Texas Tech guy. They had a really good football team this year. But just being able to, you know, work out, get his mind right and hope into this year with something to prove.
- [81:45]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, again, sticking with the theme, another player who was demoted to AAA during the season and also has gone through some adversity, at least off the field, Jake Berger, who was brought in to be a big bat for the Rangers prior to last season and didn't really work out that way in his case, the reset seemed to help a bit. Offensively at least he hit better after he came back up in August. So why did that have to happen and what difference did that make for him and how might this season go?
- [82:18]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, I think. Not to sound like also a broken record, but I feel like a lot of the mental things that went on with Jake last year really did kind of affect him on the field. And not only just off the field, but being traded for the second time when you're 27 and going to another whole new state with a young family and doing just a lot of those things, I think it all gets to be a lot at some point. I think you're right. The reset worked a little bit better for him than it did for Josh Young. I think Jake Berger is also a lot more of a. He's been a second half hitter for a lot of his career and I think he said that, hey, I'd rather be good for the whole year, not just turn it on after the break or whatever that may be, but I think him now being a little bit more settled in both the Rangers as an organization and off the field, will at least be able to have him have more of a peace of mind and just be able to, you know, go out and hit bombs like he knows he can. I think, you know, defensively I was really pleasantly surprised with how good I think he played at first base. I don't think some of the advanced metrics love him, but from the eye test, from what we can see in the spaceship that is the Rangers press box, it felt like he was doing everything, everything right. Especially as he got more comfortable with playing that position at RA Day deeper.
- [83:35]
Meg Riley
Into the season, you mentioned that there's sort of a lack of depth at the catching position in the upper minors. I'm curious, just generally on the position player side, who are some of the guys down on the farm who you think would be the first to be called on in the event that. Well, I'm going to say in the event that because we'll be optimistic. It's spring training. In the event that there are injuries in the lineup.
- [83:57]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, I think that it looks a little bit more bleak now than it did a couple of weeks ago. A lot of the Rangers, you know, top hitting prospects have been dealt in trades over these last few months, this off season, or not even to this offseason, but also over the summer at the deadline. A lot of the guys I would expect to be immediate contributors honestly come more on the pitching side in terms of prospect status. I think there's still a lot of figuring out to do of, you know, the depth of these guys. I think they're not prospects, but a guy like a Cody Freeman and Alejandro Stevens, even a Michael Hellman or Sam Haggerty, those are the guys I think in AAA that will be immediate contributors if and when somebody goes down. And those are all the ones I just listed are all versatile guys who can play the outfield, play the infield, do whatever they need to do to get themselves on the field. And I think the prospect that we're all waiting for is Sebastian Walcott, this 19 year old folks, you know, phenom that the Rangers have. And I think, you know, he hasn't even touched Triple A yet, so I don't think he'll be in an immediate thought. But I think if, if he goes off and tears around some PCL pitching, fans are going to be saying his name a lot more. I can promise you that.
- [85:16]
Meg Riley
Well, I guess we can now get to Mackenzie Gore. We've made people wait long enough. So what went into this trade and what plan do you see the Rangers have in place for Gore so that his prediction performance can be a little more consistent? Because I think that, you know, Rangers fans who are familiar with first half Mackenzie Gore from last year have to be thrilled that he's in the organization. And fans familiar with his entire season's worth of work might have some trepidation. So what is their plan for Gore?
- [85:45]
Kennedy Landry
The trade for Gore makes sense in and of itself that it really did fortify a rotation that just needed another steady pitcher. Especially, you know, you have DeGrom and Ovalde at the top with the, their injury histories and their age and you know, how you want to organize everybody behind them, then rocker and lighter coming in at the back and you kind of just look at the, when you were looking at the rotation, you say, oh, they need another arm. You have some depth. You have Jacob Latz, who was really good in a swingman role last year. Some, some of those prospects that I mentioned David Davido or Winston San Jose, Jose cordial like you have some young guys who could come up and contribute some innings if needed. But I the Gore acquisition was really a a need to fortify the rotation and the depth all behind them. And that being said, I think the Rangers did lose pitching coach Mike Maddox this offseason who went to the went to the Angels. So I know that automatically you're like, oh, so the guy who engineered this entire rotation, it's gone. So what's that going to look like now? Nathan have already said just a couple hours ago ago that I think that doesn't change the expectations. And I think Jordan Teagues, the new pitching coach who was the assistant pitching coach last year, is really good about the game planning and presenting the information to guys in a way that is really understandable for all of them. And I think that Mackenzie Gore around this group, whether that's Teagues or whether that's deGrom, whether that's Valdi and the entire pitching group in general, it's going to be good for him to be around that, that and whether that's simple pitch sequencing, simple mechanical things. Chris Young did say he didn't he, quote, didn't want to get into it at the press conference when it came to the the things that, you know, Mackenzie Gore could do better across a full, you know, season to make sure he could take that first half of last year through a full, you know, 30 starts or whatever it may be. But I do think the Raiders have the perfect pitching infrastructure and place to get the most out of Mackenzie Gore. I think we've seen, you know, Mackenzie Gore is not, you know, a grizzled vet or anything, but we've seen the Rangers get a lot of out of guys like Patrick Corbin last year, Michael Lorenzen the year before. Andrew Haney showed a lot of great, you know, stretches in 23, Martin Perez becoming an All Star in 22. Rangers have been able to get a lot out of veterans who have, you know, struggled, not struggled always, but just getting the most out of them and what they need at that moment. So I think it's a real good place for Gore to be in and he doesn't have to be the ace on the Rangers like, like he was in D.C. this is, hey, you just need to do enough to contribute and help the team win and you have two aces ahead of you at this point.
- [88:35]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, let's talk about one of them. How would you evaluate the full return from surgery of Jacob deGrom and his how would he evaluate it. I was really heartened last spring when he said that he was consciously dialing down the speed a little bit because for years I had been saying Jacob, you're so good. You won a Cy Young award when you were sitting 96, 97, you don't need to throw 99, 100. And he seemed to come to that same realization after the latest surgery. And so he was sitting 97 something and obviously he was not a Cy Young caliber pitcher. He turned 37 last year. There was another surgery. He didn't have the same stuff and stats but he made 30 starts and he threw the most innings he had since 2019. So on that level it was certainly a success.
- [89:24]
Kennedy Landry
I mean even back in spring training last year Jacob deGrom came in and he was like, I want to make 30 starts. And I don't want to say we were. We didn't believe him. But I think we've all watched all these years of Jacob deGrom whether whenever he was the best pitcher in the world and when he was injured and like 30 starts is ambitious. And Jacob deGrom does what Jacob deGrom and he proves us wrong. He had a sub three era. He was the only pitcher on the Rangers who did not have an injured listed last year, which is or only starting pitcher I should say, which I just found to be a funny bit of irony. And I think Jacob deGrom did not. He didn't look like a world beater last year. I think he would also tell you that. But I think he looked like. He looked like every bit of the pitcher you want from a 37 year old Jacob deGrom. He, you know, earned an all star bid. I think there was still a few, a few things, a few walks or like hanging pitches. And there are some things that I think he would say that hey, I could have been better. But when you look at this, what last year looked like for the Rangers, Jacob deGrom being healthy and Jacob deGrom making 30 start starts is the best thing that could have happened. If you told anybody at the beginning of the season that that's what Jacob deGrom would do, they would be happy with it. And I think everybody is also encouraged by he's still healthy, knock on wood. He came into camp healthy. He I think he's going to throw tomorrow or on Thursday. Last year it was very obvious they slow played him. They, you know, he did not start an opening day, instead started the last game of the opening home stand and then he started the last game after The All Star break or they manipulated the rotation a bit at times to maximize the most of what they could get out of Jacob deGrom. And I think that's something that Skip Schumacher and Jordan Teagues and the front office are going to talk about this year as well. But I think the Rangers got the best that they could out of Jacob deGrom last year.
- [91:20]
Meg Riley
We can return to specific players in a second, but since you mentioned mentioned Skip, they have a new one. A new Skip?
- [91:28]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah.
- [91:29]
Meg Riley
Different than the old Skip. Talk to us about what it's been like to engage with Schumacher so far.
- [91:35]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, it's been really fun. I think I've never gotten so many congratulatory texts for something that I had, like, nothing to do with and like, but everybody, like the day the Rangers announced they were hiring Skip Schumacher, so many people in and around baseball text me like, oh, my God, you're going to love him. Oh, my God, he's so great. Great from, you know, every stop, from his, you know, time in the Cardinals, Padres, the Marlins. Like, I don't know if I've ever run into a guy who came, like, so well advertised. And he does come as advertised. I mean, the. Obviously, today's the first day, but we've communicated with him a fair bit during the off season. He just seems like a real steady hand that I think the Rangers need. Obviously. Obviously, Bruce Bochy is a Hall of Famer. I don't need to sit here and wax poetic about what Bruce Bochy has done for this organization and bringing in the first World Series in franchise history. But I think it became clear at a point last year that a new voice probably could be helpful in the room, especially as the Rangers got a bit younger last year and are even younger now when you trade off a Marcus Simeon or Jonah Garcia as some of these older guys are gone and, you know, filling in the back that I think Skip will work communicate better to a younger clubhouse and how this clubhouse is currently constructed. I think you hear so much about the kind of culture that he has created and all of the places he's been. Obviously what he was able to do in Miami in a short period of time, winning manager of the year that season and all of those things that I think it's really exciting for me as a beat reporters to have, you know, a young, sprightly guy. And I think the players will respond really well to him as well. I think this is going to be a really interesting season for the Rangers. I think Skip is really the right guy to guide them into this new era at the moment.
- [93:30]
Ben Lindbergh
I know I asked Declan Cronin about this when he was on the podcast last year, and you may not have seen and heard enough to know yet. But do people call him Skip? And if they do call him Skip, is. Is there any uncertainty about whether they are addressing him by his name or his title?
- [93:45]
Kennedy Landry
People do call him Skip. I can confirm that. I don't know if any. I feel like it's only afterwards that people think, oh my God, Skip or Skip. Like I feel like in most times it takes you a second where you're like, oh, his name is Skip and he's the Skip. Yeah. I recently found out his government name was Jared, which just does I. Skip works really well. I don't think I will ever be calling him by the government. Government.
- [94:09]
Ben Lindbergh
So tell us about the Vandy boys. Leiter had a better season than Rocker. That was somewhat disappointing for Rocker after how promising he seemed to be the previous season. What's the outlook and role for them this year?
- [94:22]
Kennedy Landry
These two have had very different paths every step along the way since leaving Vanderbilt. And I think Jack, you very clearly could see Jack coming into his own last season. Obviously it wasn't without a bumps and that's what a rookie year is like for most people, but you saw him kind of absorbing information every step of the way, whether that was Teagues or Maddox or Evaldi and DeGrom or whatever. I think he really became a, you know, Capital M, Capital L major leaguer. And, and I thought he took tremendous steps forward, especially after the cup of coffee he had in 24 was Washington fairly disappointing. And I think, you know, I you pencil him in in the rotation right now, I think he's probably a lock for one of those spots. With the performance and the growth that he had last year. Rocker is a. Is kind of in a. A similar position that Jack was last year in kind of the same position that he himself was in is, you know, coming into camp trying to earn a spot. It was a very bumpy road for Kamar last year also coming off tj, so. So he was just getting back into ramping up. But there were a lot of both mental and mechanical struggles I think you saw with him at various times. You know, right before he was sent down, I think in late May, there was a PfP blunder that cost the game at the time. And I think when they sent him down shortly after that, and then when he came back up, it felt like he at least mentally put a lot more things together. But he still was struggling a lot with his mechanics in the kind of control and command of a lot of his different pitches. Not a lot of what we have seen from him in the past, whether that was in college or during his time in the minors where he kind of dominated a lot of younger competition for a bit there. And I think the Rangers kind of shut him down in September last year, sent him to Arizona, was like put him on a, not a deloading program, more of a developmental program to just get back to the basics and get the mechanics right. And I think he said he feels like that that has helped him and I think Chris Young was and Ross Fenstermaker were very encouraged by what they saw from him late last season during that developmental time and I think he's in a good place coming into 2026 to hopefully earn a spot in this rotation. That's really not going to be given at this point, especially again, Gore coming in to fortify that, that depth of there. Obviously we know what Kamar Rocker looks like when he is at his best, but we still haven't really seen that at this level. So I think this is going to be a, probably one of the most important, this camp is probably most important for him more than almost any other player in the Rangers camp right now.
- [97:08]
Meg Riley
We can talk about the bullpen for a moment because it's a, it's an interesting mix of guys who were on the team last year and then some free agent and trade editions. So Garcia Garcia returns, Chris Martin returns, Cole Wynn. But then you have guys like Jacob Junas and Alexis Diaz, Tyler Alexander, Carter Balmer. So tell us about how they envision that group sort of shaking out.
- [97:30]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, I think last year the Rangers had a bullpen that I think had the fifth best ERA in baseball. Much like this year was kind of pieced together a bit by a trade acquisition here, a bunch of signings there and not a lot of returners from the previous year. So. So Chris Young has obviously shown he's. He's been able to build a bullpen basically from scratch. But however good the Rangers bullpen ERA may have been last year, I think they blew upwards of 25 saves if I can remember correctly. I don't have that number off the top of my head, but they were really having trouble in those higher leverage situations last year. This, you know, seventh, eighth, ninth innings were just not as not what you wanted to see from a team that was trying to be in contention. You know, they made some trades at the deadline to hopefully fortify. I've used that word a lot today. But that closer position, no it didn't work out down the line. But you know Chris Young has come in again like you said, added some outside faces in trying to get this bullpen to be better than last year, especially on the back end. I think you have a number of guys who could potentially be in a closer role. I think Robert Garcia is probably one of the the main ones despite some of the struggles he had last year and even in Alexis Diaz who I think is another pitcher kind of kind of like Gore that the Rangers pitching lab can you know, sink their teeth into and try to figure out what exactly went wrong last year and tweak that and maybe get him back to what he was a few years ago when he was an All Star closed or obviously especially Diaz was that was not a good year for him last year. And he I think we haven't talked to him yet honestly but I think he would probably say the same and I think anybody from this group the Rangers obviously believe is good enough to you know be in this staff and hopefully compete for a role closing games out which is has been an obvious need for them since I guess a world is Chapman in 23 that they traded for for it and you know was a huge part of the World Series team.
- [99:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Nathan Ivaldi has kind of had an odd career shape almost Adrian Beltray esque to invoke another Red Sox to Rangers guy though not as good, not as extreme. But he has been more valuable in his 30s than in his 20s and a lot of that has been about a guy who had a reputation for being pretty injury prone earlier in his career being fairly durable of late. But the injuries did strike again last season after he had just a phenomenal 22 starts to open the year and then he had the rotator cuff strain and then he had surgery for a sports hernia in October. So is he expected to be at full strength and if he or the newly durable Jacob deGrom were to suffer some sort of injury or someone else what's the the depth looking like because you mentioned there's the other Jacob Jacob Latz. Cody Bradford is on the comeback trail. Austin Gomber's here. Cal Quantrill. So yeah tell us how Evaldi is looking and then how the rotation depth stacks up.
- [100:40]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah we just talked to to Nate a couple hours ago and he said he is pretty much a full go. He threw a couple of bullpens before getting into surprise and threw one just hours ago today as well as of you know right. The second. Tuesday, February, February 10th. Nathan Valdez a full go for opening day in 2026 or whenever he may be pitching in that first week of the year. I think Nathan of Aldi has been phenomenal since joining the Rangers. I think obviously he was a World series hero in 23 and then again in 24 and 25. He looked every bit of a steady really the ace of the team, especially the time Jacob deGrom was out. So I think when you have have those two at the top of your, your rotation, you're very pleased with what you may or may not get out of them. But the, the depth is obviously going to be an important piece. I think Jacob Latts is the biggest name that is, you know, six man off the bench, so to say he was really good in I think eight spot starts last year on the back end and then has been a real actually important piece of the bullpen for the last two years as well. He came came up as a starter through the minors. They converted him to a reliever in 23 just because of a workload and the number of injuries he went through in the early part of his minor league career. And then I think he really wants to be a starter in the major leagues. He keeps saying like, hey, I'll do whatever it takes to have this for the team to win, but I really want to be in the rotation. So he's the first guy off the bench and like you said, a lot of those, those you know, major leaguers who have contributed at the level in some sort of way, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber, there's a few other names that the Rangers have signed to minor league deals I think are going to be important to keep an eye on in camp. And then some of those prospects, like I said, I think Jose Cornell made his MLB debut game 162 last year and unfortunately gave up a walk off homer in Cleveland to help them clinch the division. But he, he's been probably one of the best Rangers starting pitching prospects over these last few years, especially as some of these other ones have gotten traded off here and there in various deals. And Winston Santos, Emiliano Teodo actually might be is likely to be more used as a bulletin piece this year just as more of a it needs to be a workload thing just due to the injuries. We keep saying injuries too, a lot of those everywhere across this organization. But there's a lot of names that I think will come up especially you know, as we get through camp and as you see guys make Cactus leagues start to end things like that. But I take those top five, six across. Anybody's in the. Anybody in the majors right now. And. But as we saw last year, that doesn't really matter if you can't hit the ball. So that's really where we're at with the Rangers right now.
- [103:25]
Ben Lindbergh
All right, well, what's the realistic target for them? What would constitute a successful season for the Rangers in 2020?
- [103:32]
Kennedy Landry
I mean, I think, personally, I think a successful season has to be. Making the playoffs going 81 and 81 like you did last year definitely doesn't particularly cut it, and especially in a. In a division that has. Was kind of up for grabs this past year, and they never were able to take a hold of it, especially as Seattle pulled away from the rest of the pack there. You know, the Astros are not what they have been in, you know, the last decade. The Angels are always trying, but the Rangers have kind of been able to have their number. And I know the A's have been really good and they have a lot of good young talent, but this is a division that I think the Rangers should be able to win if everything goes well. Things never go how they're supposed to or how you think they're going to go or anything like that, but I think at the very least, the Rangers need to make the playoffs for it to be a successful season.
- [104:24]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, and maybe it's not a coincidence that we've been talking about injuries so much, because injuries sometimes, sometimes go hand in hand with age. And the Rangers, a pretty old team. Granted, some of their young guys have been the ones getting hurt in many cases, but they had the fifth highest average batting age last year and the highest pitching age, which is what will happen, I guess, when you've got DeGrom and Evaldi and Patrick Corbin, the. The unsung savior of the 2025 rotation. Just a late emergency pickup and ended up pitching more innings, I think, than anyone. Anyone but degrom, which was crazy, by the way.
- [104:57]
Kennedy Landry
I know we're not talking about last season, but I still kind of can't believe that happened.
- [105:01]
Ben Lindbergh
Smart pickup. I guess. He did what he was asked to do. But if this doesn't work out for them this year, or if this season doesn't start out well, where are they? Kind of in the competitive cycle because, as noted, like the brewers who led this episode, they have their own teenage top 10 overall prospect in Walcott. But given that overall age of the roster, are they looking at this as one last ride? This is the last gas. We got to make it count and if it doesn't then we're going to have to rebuild. Or do they have hopes of sustaining this even if this season is not a success?
- [105:36]
Kennedy Landry
Yeah, I think when you, I think when you sign a guy to a 10 year deal like they did with, you know, Corey seer going into 22, that you want that competitive window to be 10 years long at the very least. Obviously the, the last two years have not gone as well as they obviously hoped when you don't make the playoffs. But I, I think Chris Young is not one to panic rebuild and not that it would be a panic if there's three straight years of not making the playoffs, but I think he is a competitive guy who wants to always be in, he wants to exist in the competitive window and I think think that goes for a lot of people in this organization. They have continued to again be in top 10 payrolls in baseball even as, you know, things got a little bit shaky or have been a little bit shaky and still are a bit. So I, I don't know if I would automatically say, hey, the, the Rangers would be looking at a, a rebuild if they don't make the, the postseason. I know there was a lot of panic about Corey Seager after the Marcus Simeon trade, but I don't think that was ever fully on the table this offseason again. Chris Young said, hey, we're, we're trying to compete and I know that only means right now, right this second, but I, I don't particularly see him just giving up and, you know, fully going rebuild.
- [106:54]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, we'll find out and one way we'll find out is by following the coverage that Kennedy provides@mlb.com always a pleasure to read you and to talk to you. Thanks so much for joining us again.
- [107:05]
Kennedy Landry
Awesome.
- [107:05]
Ben Lindbergh
Thank you.
- [107:05]
Kennedy Landry
Thanks guys. Love it.
- [107:07]
Ben Lindbergh
All right, that will do it for today. Thanks as always for listening. Probably previewing the Orioles and Padres next time. For now, you can support the podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks as have the following five listeners. Will Bunn, David Brown, Ben Nye, Julia W and Slam the Flap. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the effectively Wild Discord group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch and ad, free fancrafts, memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings@patreon.com effectivelywild if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us to the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcasts and graphs.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music and other podcast platforms. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectivelywild. You can join our facebook group@facebook.com group effectivelywild and you can check the show notes in the podcast posted fan graphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with one more episode before the end of the week. Talk to you then.
- [108:28]
Kennedy Landry
Effectively Wild, Effectively styled, distilled over chill beats, Effectively mild.