Effectively Wild Episode 2440: Season Preview Series – Orioles and Padres
February 13, 2026 | Hosted by Meg Rowley & Ben Lindbergh with guests Chris Mitchell, Andy Kostka (Baltimore Banner), and AJ Cassavel (mlb.com)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the hosts continue their annual team-by-team MLB season preview series with in-depth discussions of the Baltimore Orioles and the San Diego Padres. They dig into spring training storylines—focusing on injuries and quirky player/manager behavior—before being joined by beat writers Andy Kostka and AJ Cassavel for comprehensive breakdowns of each club’s offseason moves, roster questions, and 2026 outlook. The episode is filled with baseball statistical analysis, plenty of signature Effectively Wild banter, and memorable tangents.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Opening Banter: Spring Training Injuries & Baseball Weirdness

[00:32–17:47]

• Injury Deluge at Spring's Start

  • The hosts joke about the prevalence of “little bird bones” and in particular the impact of hamate injuries, referencing several recent cases (Francisco Lindor, Jackson Holliday, Corbin Burns, Corbin Carroll).
  • “Every single Corbin who plays for the Diamondbacks is, you know, a ghost at this point.” – Meg Rowley [02:43]
  • Noted that early spring tends to reveal a "backlog" of injuries, but this year felt unusually "dismaying" and concerning for key young players’ development.

• Hand-Wringing Over the Lasting Impact of Hamate Injuries

  • Meg: “There definitely are guys where it seems like there is a persistent power sapping quality to that particular injury…” [04:49]
  • Ben references research from Jason Collette and Jeff Zimmerman concerning hitters’ time to recover and power loss realities.

• Weird Spring Training Stories

  • Amusing detour into Phillies “weirdness hierarchy”—from raw milk to Bryce Harper’s publicized “booby milk” incident to Zach Wheeler’s removed rib.
  • “I don't understand keeping baby teeth… That's medical waste. Okay, that's—you're not asking me if I want to take the dirty gauze home.” – Meg Rowley [11:54]
  • More oddball reports: Craig Kimbrel listing favorite music as “AI” [15:55], Luis Angel Acuña “switch-hitter” controversy and White Sox GM Chris Getz’s notable gaffe correcting himself publicly.

• Labor Discourse Already Looming: Salary Cap Talk

  • Frustration with the early and persistent media push around CBA/salary cap before any genuine negotiations begin.
  • “Do we have to be talking about this salary cap 24/7 for a full year?... There's nothing new, really.” – Chris Mitchell [30:11]
  • Meg and Ben discuss the way coverage shapes fan expectations and league narratives, but note it may have little effect on eventual bargaining outcomes.

Baltimore Orioles 2026 Season Preview

[38:57–86:48]
Guest: Andy Kostka, Baltimore Banner

Offseason Summary

• Aggressive, but Missing the Big Fish:

  • Orioles were second to only Blue Jays & Dodgers in new player spending (notably, $155M for Pete Alonso).
  • Yet, “hard to give an A to Baltimore’s offseason when the stated goal...was to sign a frontline starter. And then...they did not do that.” – Andy Kostka [40:23]
  • Chris Bassitt’s 1-year deal seen as solid but not the ace they needed.

• Rationale on Not Landing a Top Starting Pitcher:

  • Club not constrained financially, per new owner David Rubenstein; likely more a function of persuading talent to sign.
  • “The more of the issue probably was convincing players to come to Baltimore.” – Andy [44:06]

Rotation & Bullpen Uncertainties

• Rotation anchored by Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers:

  • Rogers: 2025 sub-2 ERA “unlikely to be repeated” but skills growth is real; worked on pitching from stretch and developing his sweeper.
  • Zac Eflin’s 2025 struggles attributed to back injury; “I think last year was more of an outlier due to injury, is the short answer.” – Andy [51:12]

• Grayson Rodriguez Trade:

  • Sent to Angels for Taylor Ward, reflecting lack of confidence in sustained health and performance.
  • “They did not believe that he was going to turn into the kind of pitcher they needed to win now.” – Andy [52:05]

• Bullpen Structure:

  • Closer Ryan Helsley added to stabilize the back end in Felix Bautista’s projected absence (shoulder surgery likely to sideline him all year).
  • Lefty reliever depth seen as a concern, with reliance on swingmen or converted starters possible.

Lineup & Defense

• Big Bats & Leadership:

  • Addition of Pete Alonso provides “veteran anchor” and vocal leadership to a young, talented but previously leaderless team.
  • “Baltimore wanted a lineup addition...I think they might have needed a pillar, that veteran that they can lean on in difficult, trying times.” – Andy [75:48]

• Key Players Under Microscope:

  • Adley Rutschman: Two straight down years, with injuries and changes in hitting coaches, but “I generally am an Adley Rutschman believer. I don't think that talent goes away overnight.” – Andy [61:11]
  • Samuel Basallo: “Way too much swing and miss and chase...” Needs to cut down on chasing out of the zone to take next step.
  • Jackson Holliday: Flashes power but needs improvement on backhand plays and striking out too much (“149 games, 140 strikeouts”).
  • Gunnar Henderson & Colton Cowser: Gunnar played through shoulder impingement; “I would actually put my belief [that] he could be a 30/30 guy…” — Andy [71:21]; Cowser’s offensive struggles partially blamed on rib injuries.

• Bench & Platooning:

  • “A very fascinating camp battle for the last couple spots…” — Orioles have unusually deep and flexible roster, many with options, including Mountcastle, Mayo, Beavers, Tyler O’Neill, Leody Tavares, Blaze Alexander.

Managerial Change

• Craig Albernaz Step Up:
  • Emphasis on player development, sarcasm, and “being himself.” Seen as positive presence with catching background useful for handling Rutschman/Basallo. Yet “we’re really going to know [about him] in August…” — Andy [84:42]

Measuring Success

• “They need to…win a playoff series. Even if…it’s the ALDS because you won the Wild Card, get that monkey off your back, that’s the first thing they need to do for success.” – Andy [85:17]

San Diego Padres 2026 Season Preview

[87:28–135:31]
Guest: AJ Cassavel, mlb.com

Franchise Ownership Uncertainty

• Team exploring a sale following Peter Seidler’s passing; robust interest, but timing, process, and ultimate direction uncertain.
• “If the new ownership were to come in and reverse that course, I just…I don’t see that happening.” – AJ [93:09]

Offseason Restraint & Roster Management

• Notably, A.J. Preller has (so far) made zero trades this winter—an uncharacteristic lull possibly tied to a thinned farm system.
  • “There are still some intriguing guys in that system. But…it’s hard to pull from the guys that they have…” – AJ [97:27]
• Prospect depth remains an issue at the AAA/AA levels due to multiple prior years of aggressive trade activity.

Player Development & Lineup Questions

• Jackson Merrill: Dealt with injuries, not a true sophomore slump, but optimism for another leap.
  • “He has the potential to be a star...He was very new at it [CF] and he’s gotten better defensively.” – AJ [102:42]
• Power Shortfall: Padres finished 28th in HRs in 2025; team hopes for more from Tatis, newcomers like Miguel Andújar, and philosophy shift under new hitting coach Steven Souza Jr.
  • "With an offense that has Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, you should be able to tap into that power." – AJ [104:23]
• Ramon Laureano: Key right-handed bat, especially against lefties, after a resurgent 2025.
• Sung Mun Song: Korean signing brings versatility all over the diamond; team planning to ease him into action.

Rotation & Bullpen Structure

• Starting Pitchers:

  • Michael King: Signed a trampoline deal; has front-line potential but health track record is short and surgery-recovery recent.
    • “Michael King...gets his chance to do that [prove he’s an ace] and then we’ll see what happens next season.” – AJ [113:04]
  • Joe Musgrove: “Most important Padre” for 2026; complete recovery hoped-for, with possible managed workload.
  • Nick Pivetta: Remarkable improvement in 2025; credited to eliminating erraticness and maximizing his fastball/curveball combo.
  • Yu Darvish: Status uncertain, with reports of possible retirement or at least contract voiding.

• Bullpen:

  • The team's greatest strength; addition of Mason Miller to an already elite group (Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada).
  • “That's why I think the Padres had some interesting decisions to make this offseason...they basically decided our bullpen is awesome and we want to make sure it's still awesome.” – AJ [122:39]
  • Concern over innings protection: "You do have to hand a lead to the bullpen in order for that lead to be protected." – Ben [124:29]

• The Miller/DeVries Trade:

  • Padres parted with top prospect Leo De Vries to Oakland for Mason Miller.
    • “If Leo De Vries is the next Jose Ramirez, it’s a terrible trade. But…I commend the Padres for being willing to make those moves.” – AJ [126:32]

Manager & Coaching Staff Changes

• Craig Stammen as New Manager:
  • High clubhouse respect, but totally inexperienced in managing. Quick rise from bullpen to front office to manager’s chair.
    • “He’s a bright guy who relates really well with these players...There is no learning curve with the organization.” – AJ [127:25]
• Mike Shildt’s Departure: Cited as burnout/need for time away; rumors of behind-the-scenes issues exist but not confirmed as main driver.

Padres’ Success Metrics and Preller’s Tenure

• Goal is to host playoff games; making the playoffs for a third straight year would be a franchise first.
  • “If the Padres have [home playoff games] at the end of the season, that probably means they've had a solid year.” – AJ [132:07]
• Preller: Final season under contract; extension possible, but if they fall short, could be end of his wild run as GM.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments with Timestamps

• "I want the tiny bird bones to take a hike." – Meg Rowley on ballplayer injuries [00:35]
• "He's at least returning from his injury and surgery." – Ben Lindbergh on Corbin Carroll [02:43]
• "Our hamates are doing just fine, as are our shoulders and our elbows...Lower stakes for us." – Ben Lindbergh [06:48]
• "The hierarchy. It's—the raw milk. That's on top. And everything else." – Chris Mitchell on Phillies weirdness [09:06]
• "Communicating in public about players is like a really sizable part of Chris Getz’s job. So it's not a good mistake to make." – Meg Rowley [19:40]
• "Do we have to be talking about this salary cap 24/7 for a full year? ...there's nothing new, really." – Chris Mitchell [30:11]
• "It's a little hard to make the case [Henderson’s season was disappointing]." – Meg Riley [69:49]
• "He just elevates a lineup so much...He's pretty much a pure hitter." – Andy Kostka on Pete Alonso [75:22]
• "Jackson Merrill is...kind of my pick to like, he's already broken out, but...I think he could have a really solid season." – AJ Cassavel [102:20]
• "...if they're losing a game, 4–2 in the seventh inning, they can go to one of those high-leverage guys...who could be closers on other teams." – AJ Cassavel [123:04]
• "He’s a bright guy who relates really well with these players." – AJ Cassavel on Craig Stammen [127:25]

Timestamps of Major Segments

• 00:00–17:47 – Spring injuries, player weirdness, CBA salary cap gripe session
• 38:57–86:48 – Orioles preview with Andy Kostka
• 87:28–135:31 – Padres preview with AJ Cassavel

Episode Tone and Style

• The hosts’ signature blend of irreverence and baseball nerd analysis is on full display—oscillating between statistics, deep roster dives, and extended, often hilarious tangents (medical waste, Phillies club culture, botched GM statements).
• Thoughtful, well-sourced insight from local beat writers is paired with host context, historical callbacks, and playful meta-commentary.
• Frequent use of inside jokes, pop culture references, and a conversational debate style make the dense analysis accessible and fun.

Summary for Non-Listeners

If you missed this episode, you’d want to know that it provides a thorough, stat-informed forecast of two American League contenders—one building on a youth movement with big new spending (Orioles); the other navigating uncertainty and transition, but still aiming to win now (Padres). Both teams’ seasons will turn on health, the performance of select young stars, and the success or failure of their bullpens and rookie managers. The episode is studded with fan-friendly banter about baseball’s oddities, injuries, labor politics, and the perennial unpredictability of the game.

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