Effectively Wild Episode 2444: To Challenge, or Not to Challenge?

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (A), Meg Rowley (C)
Guests: Owen Riley (B) & Maxfield Lane (D) of Oyster Analytics
Release Date: February 25, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into one of the most intriguing frontiers in baseball: the implementation and tactical intricacies of the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike) challenge system. Ben and Meg banter about baseball’s comedic culture and recent news (and butts), before being joined by Owen Riley and Maxfield Lane of Oyster Analytics (and Down on the Farm), who break down the analytics, psychology, and strategy behind ABS challenges soon to be a regular sight in MLB games. The episode concludes with listener interactions and fun mascot talk.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Baseball Banter & Noteworthy News

Legs Like a Centaur

• [03:29-11:19] Ben and Meg discuss a Brian Wu quote describing Mariners prospect Ryan Sloan as having "legs like a centaur."
  • Ben questions whether this is complimentary, pondering if centaurs suggest "big, burly, thick, muscular legs or little skinny horse legs."
  • Both hosts riff on the weird, sometimes awkward nature of prospect body talk and its evolution in baseball culture.
    • Memorable Meg Quote [04:31]: “Obviously we are in a less horny era for that, which is probably good on balance. Although sometimes I think we've lost something.”

Butt Banter (Herniated Humor)

• [13:02-19:07] Meg segues into recent “butt”-related injuries: Matt Waldron is sidelined after hemorrhoid surgery.
  • They debate how much injury detail is too much for public disclosure, comparing baseball transparency to “lower body injury” NHL euphemisms.
  • Ben [15:26]: "I don't know whether it's a tight end and I don't know whether it's Centaur like, but...infection in his rear end. Waldron is week to week."

2. Angels Owner Artie Moreno & The Value of Winning

[21:03-30:35] Artie Moreno's Comments

• Moreno claims that affordability is the “No. 1 thing fans want,” putting winning outside of fans' top 5 priorities.
• Ben and Meg debate whether that's true for Angels fans, speculate about unique attendance patterns, and highlight how owners might use affordability to cover for lack of investment in the team.
  • Artie Moreno [Paraphrased, 25:50]: "Believe it or not, winning is not in [fans’] top five... the number one thing fans want is affordability."
  • Meg’s rebuttal [26:31]: “It doesn't matter. You gotta lie. You gotta lie...people don't think that this team is going in the right direction. And when you decide to focus on the affordability piece... hey, Erdie, put some winning baseball on the field.”

3. Listener Feedback & Community Highlights

The Generous Barback

• [32:10-38:14] Listener McGarrity Stanley is identified as the “barback” who covered drinks for another Effectively Wild fan—a heartwarming community story.
  • McGarrity (email excerpt): “I will do my honest best to provide our fellow baseball nerds with complimentary drinks in the event we meet in meatspace. Sorry Meg, I can't unhear it either.”

Who You Got Debates: Lessons From Retrospective Comparisons

• [100:30-end] Ben discusses feedback suggesting failed player comparisons (e.g., Michael Conforto vs. Aaron Judge) are more interesting in hindsight.
  • Avery (listener): “Failed player comparisons...are more interesting ... than ones that continue to look normal.”

Featured Interview: The Challenge System

Guests: Owen Riley & Maxfield Lane (Oyster Analytics)

Their Background

• [45:34-48:13] Both are former Division III pitchers; got into analytics to make prospect projections rigorous, but accessible.

Why the Challenge System Matters

• [50:12 onwards] It introduces real-time, tactical decision-making around abs (automated ball/strike) calls, blending analytics with psychological and ego factors in the heat of the game.
  • Owen [50:28]: “It has a lot of cool implications as well. From a philosophy perspective and a ego perspective…”

Studying ABS Challenges: Strategy, Execution, and Realities

How to Challenge (and When)

• [52:49-59:48] Using minor league, spring training, and theoretical data, they stress:

  • Count leverage is everything.

    • Full counts are the highest-leverage scenarios for challenges, with a “break-even” threshold as low as 14.4%.
    • Early counts (e.g., 0-0) require much higher certainty—over 70%—to be worthwhile.

  • Game Situation Matters:

    • The later the inning, the more aggressive you can (and should) be using remaining challenges.
    • Bases loaded or runners in scoring position significantly lowers the bar to justify a challenge.

  • Team Culture & Risk Tolerance:

    • Only 26% of games in AAA see all challenges used—MLB teams may need to get more aggressive.

  • Maxfield [59:48]: “The average break-even rate for a full count situation...is 14.4%. In an 0-0 count, that’s 74%...as the count gets later, you should be more willing to take more risks with your challenges.”

Errors, Success, and Clubhouse Dynamics

• [63:06-81:00] Discussion of optimal challenge delegation (should pitchers even be allowed?), risk aversion, and fan/media pressure when challenges are “wasted.”
  • Owen [77:54]: “The worrying thing is...if this fan backlash goes how we expect it to, the incentives for players are not going to align with the incentives for the team overall...”

Player Skill & Umpires

• [64:41-67:57]
  • It’s unclear if great strike zone judgment translates into great challenge choices; minor league data show some surprises.
  • For umpires, immediate public feedback might actually improve their performance.

Quantifying Challenge Value

• [88:33-91:48] Assigning challenge value to player WAR is difficult; the effect will be marginal for hitters but could matter for catchers, especially as pitch framing’s value declines.
  • Maxfield [90:31]: “For catchers it could be a big deal... for hitters, I think the volume is way too low... But for catchers, I think there’s an actual chance that... you could add a little bit of value...”

Lighthearted Moments & Quotes

Memorable Quotes

• Meg [04:31]: "Obviously we are in a less horny era for that, which is probably good on balance. Although sometimes I think we've lost something."
• Ben [15:26]: "[Waldron] had a procedure for an infection in his rear end...a case where this feels like too much information."
• Meg [21:03]: “[Moreno’s] in a sense sort of a hemorrhoid upon the game.”
• Maxfield [95:49]: “[The Reno Aces mascot Archie] is supposed to be the furry embodiment of the arch. And he is absolutely scary.”
• Owen [94:42]: "Our nickname came from Catan."

Mascot Mayhem

• [95:07-98:48] Meg quizzes the guests about the terrifying Reno Aces mascot Archie (“Why is the mouth like that?”), revealing fandom traumas and regional baseball quirks.
  • Discussion expands into hidden, giant mascots at Reno Aces games, and the origins of the Oyster Analytics name (Settlers of Catan reference).

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:28 | Start of show and weather banter, podcast plans | | 03:29 | “Legs like a centaur” & prospect descriptor discussion | | 13:02 | Butt/hemorrhoid injury tangent | | 21:03 | Artie Moreno’s “fans value affordability over winning” | | 32:10 | Listener barback community story | | 38:14 | Listener relationships & effective wild community notes | | 45:17 | Start of challenge system interview | | 50:12 | Why the challenge system is analytically interesting | | 52:49 | How to model optimal challenge usage | | 59:48 | Practical takeaways for challenge strategy | | 63:06 | Which MLB teams may be good or bad at challenge usage | | 81:00 | Culture, risk tolerance, player egos, fan/media narratives | | 88:33 | Quantifying value from challenges (and catchers’ pipelines) | | 95:07 | Mascots: Archie, Truckee, and hidden baseball monsters | | 99:55 | Closing remarks; listener “who you got” debate |

Takeaways for Baseball Fans & Analysts

• ABS Challenge System:

  • Expect early strategic missteps as teams and players learn to maximize value under new rules.
  • Don’t be fooled by challenge “success rate”—the best teams (and players) may “waste” more but gain more value by challenging in high-leverage spots.
  • Catchers’ skills in challenging might partially offset losses from declining framing value, but don’t expect it to drive WAR for most position players.

• Human Element:

  • Clubhouse culture and communication will be critical—expect some friction.
  • Fan education is needed so challenge losses aren’t automatically equated with poor decision-making.

• Community:

  • Effectively Wild listeners continue to demonstrate wholesome nerdery—both online and in real life!

Where to Learn More

• Oyster Analytics: oysteranalytics.com
• Down on the Farm Substack: Search “Down on the Farm baseball substack”
• Twitter/X & BlueSky: @OysterAnalytics | @DownOnTheFarm12

Final Note

If you have a story of an Effectively Wild–inspired love connection, or want to debate “who you got?” player pairings, Ben and Meg want to hear from you!

(Summary compiled in the irreverent, analytical, and community-first style of Effectively Wild.)