Effectively Wild Episode 2445: 2026 Season Preview – Red Sox and Reds

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley
Guests: Alex Speier (Boston Globe), C. Trent Rosecrans (The Athletic)
Date: February 27, 2026
Theme: Deep-dive season previews for the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds, including team outlooks, offseason moves, roster construction, and prospect discussion.

Overview

The episode continues the annual tradition of deep, statistical team previews, focusing on the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds. Ben and Meg begin with banter on recent news and a discussion of the philosophy and pitfalls of pre-debut contract extensions for top prospects. The main segments take a granular look at each team’s outlook, covering fan sentiment, roster moves, key players, prospect developments, and organizational strategies, with input from expert beat writers.

Banter & Recent News ([00:50] - [19:33])

Key Topics:

• Max Scherzer signs with the Blue Jays; Chris Sale extends with Atlanta.
• Viral video drama: Jacob Misarowski didn’t actually throw a 100+ mph pitch at Cooper Pratt—video was cleverly edited.
• The growing trend of pre-MLB debut contract extensions, focusing on Pirates top prospect Connor Griffin’s openness to talks.

Notable Quotes:

• [01:56] Meg Rowley on extension rumors:
  “You should always take the call... but Connor Griffin is wildly talented... this is a guy who should bet on himself and he should bet that he's going to be as good as we think he is.”

• [08:27] Meg Rowley on Griffin’s financial position:
  “Connor, you just made six and a half million dollars. So there's that piece of it... you can make a lot of money in arbitration if you're as good a player as we think.”

• [09:50] Ben Lindbergh:
  “Six and a half million bucks when you're 18; if you invest that wisely, you're pretty set for when you're almost 40.”

• [12:28] Ben Lindbergh:
  “Cautionary note... bet on yourself.”

• [13:26] On Paul Skenes and USA's WBC roster:
  “That's what we do. It's going to be fun. USA wins. It's what we do. Got to keep it going.”

• [15:43] On Willier Abreu’s bizarre broken-bat check swing:
  “He checked his swing and the bat broke... the bat continued on, so it was ruled that he went around.”

Key Segment: Check Swing Rules
[16:53] - [18:56]
Ben and Meg discuss MLB’s lack of clarity on the check swing rule, using Abreu’s incident to call for improved definitions and potential use of technology.

Segment 1: Boston Red Sox Preview with Alex Speier ([19:59] - [67:29])

1. Fan Sentiment and Expectations ([20:12] - [24:40])

Alex Speier:

• Red Sox fans are “coming out of a trough” after the post-Mookie Betts trade era and multiple last-place finishes.
• There’s skepticism due to payroll drop-off and shift away from expensive superstars to savvy, lower-profile moves.
• “A creeping sense of championship birthright... has been thrown asunder.” ([22:23])

Notable Quote:
[22:23] “It is the longest gap that this ownership group has ever endured without winning a championship... a creeping sense of championship birthright that has been thrown asunder.” – Alex Speier

2. Offseason Strategy: Roster Depth, Pitching Focus, and Missed Superstars ([25:28] - [30:03])

• Club prioritized adding a #2 starter (Sonny Gray) and a power bat (wanted Alex Bregman, settled for Wilson Contreras).
• Missed out on true superstar signings, instead pursued depth and balance.
• Opportunistic, not always a clear grand plan, but ended up with a deeper, more defensively sound team.

Quote:
[27:53] “They wanted Alex Bregman back. It was definitely described in the... shocked aftermath as, well, Plan A is off the board.” – Alex Speier

3. Power & Offense: Is the Lack of a Masher a Problem? ([30:03] - [36:04])

• No Red Sox player is projected to hit 25+ HRs; instead, the team features many with double-digit power potential.
• Fenway advantages: Many right-handed hitters benefit from the Green Monster for doubles/triples.
• No “middle of the order anchor,” but a high floor for power across the lineup.

Quotes:

• [31:16] “Does this matter... is this something worth being alarmed over?” – Ben Lindbergh
• [34:46] “If you get a bunch of guys who hit 20 homers... the absence of a true 30-35 home run threat, you're probably okay.” – Alex Speier

4. Infield & Outfield Logjams, Defensive Upgrades ([36:04] - [44:12])

• Caleb Durbin: Acquired for contact skills; highly valued for putting the ball in play at Fenway.
• Masataka Yoshida Dilemma: Too many outfield/DH options; Yoshida or Duran could be traded, with Duran valued more highly internally.
• Defensive reshuffle with new faces and homegrown prospects (e.g., Rafaela in CF, Contreras at 1B).

Quote: [36:22] “They failed a lot to capitalize... with the man on third and fewer than two outs... Caleb Durbin... has one of the highest contact rates in Major League Baseball, well, that can play at Fenway.” – Alex Speier

5. Young Core and Prospect Progress ([44:12] - [52:55])

• Roman Anthony: Plate discipline and power potential; comparisons to elite data-darling prospects.
• Marcel Meyer: Still finding offensive footing; could play 2B or 3B.
• Christian Campbell: Versatile but blocked, likely to start in AAA.

Quote: [44:35] “He was getting on base at almost a .400 clip... total command of his at bats... pretty special to watch.” – Alex Speier on Roman Anthony

6. Catching, Pitching Depth & Bullpen Construction ([52:55] - [61:54])

• Carlos Narvaez: Elite framer, unexpectedly strong bat.
• Rotation: Deepest in years; Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bayo at the top, Oviedo, Sandoval, and youngsters as depth.
• Bullpen: Righty-heavy; Chapman anchors from the left, ongoing search for reliable lefty options.

Quote: [55:36] “It's a very interesting... very intentional build up on the part of Craig Breslow, former major league pitcher... they’ve added a lot and they're going to...” – Alex Speier

7. Pitching Factory & Organizational Change ([62:07] - [64:24])

Red Sox finally prioritizing pitching prospects in the draft; organization-wide velocity programs paying off.

Quote: [62:07] “It's not too soon. And part of that is just like, where are you plowing your... money where your mouth is.” – Alex Speier

8. What Constitutes Success? ([64:27] - [67:06])

• Success: “Deeper than the wild card round... Get October baseball back to Fenway Park.”
  Upward trajectory with young, controllable core.

Anecdote:
David Ortiz’s refrigerator comparison to prospect Justin Gonzalez:
[66:25] “I gave him a hug and it felt like I was hugging that thing.” – Ortiz via Alex Speier

Segment 2: Cincinnati Reds Preview with C. Trent Rosecrans ([68:35] - [113:25])

1. Recent History and Elevated Expectations ([69:05] - [73:09])

• Reds finally returned to playoffs in ‘25, but no home games, no series wins since 1995.
• Fan base won’t be satisfied until the team advances and wins at home.

Quote: [70:51] “This is a franchise that has not won a postseason series since 1995. That's a long time.” – C. Trent Rosecrans

2. The Ellie De La Cruz Effect ([73:09] - [80:13])

• Ellie is the club’s transcendent player; leg injuries hampered his performance in ‘25.
• Determination to play every game may have been detrimental during injury stretch.
• Defensive maturation ongoing—expected improvement in errors and decision-making at shortstop.

Quote:
[78:50] “Ellie's a really smart baseball player. His gifts physically tend to overshadow what an intelligent baseball player he is.” – C. Trent Rosecrans

3. Infield Reconstruction & Eugenio Suárez Return ([80:13] - [85:04])

• Ke’Bryan Hayes: Defensive wizard, slight uptick offensively, less pressure in Cincinnati.
• Eugenio Suárez: Returns as a DH, took less money to rejoin Reds; possible solution to power drought (no Red has topped 25 HR since 2021).

4. Outfield and Young Bats ([85:04] - [90:12])

• Noelvi Marte: Outfield conversion relieves pressure, improves performance.
• Sal Stewart: 124 wRC+ in cameo; advanced approach, body transformation, likely to stick at 1B.

5. Hitting Philosophies and Contact ([90:12] - [94:03])

• Fan concern over organizational emphasis on contact over bat speed/hard contact; Rosecrans clarifies that philosophy isn’t anti-analytics.
• Contact more valued lately, but not at the expense of ignoring power metrics.

Quote: [91:58] “Hitting coaches are not offensive coordinators. You take what's there... they're always looking for what that person can do best, but contact has become more important.” – C. Trent Rosecrans

6. Prospect Watch ([94:24] - [95:31])

Hector Rodriguez: “I am super high on [him]... You can't teach his kind of bat-to-ball skill and athleticism.”
Comparisons to Vlad Sr., Carlos Delgado, Luis Arraez, José Ramírez (all with caveats).

7. Rotation: Ascending Strength ([95:31] - [105:10])

• One of the deepest, most exciting groups (projected 5th best in MLB by FanGraphs).
• Hunter Greene: Electric arm, maturing approach, health is key.
• Andrew Abbott: Lefty, smart pitchability.
• Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder: Elite prospects; Burns with overpowering fastball/slider, Lowder with command/pitchability, possible AAA start but both expected to help MLB rotation soon.
• Depth: Several arms with MLB experience in AAA—Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar, Chase Petty, Jose Franco.

[100:45] Rosecrans: “I actually kind of have Rhett Louder as who I think might be the guy who is that fifth starter. But... Burns is really, really good.”

8. Bullpen Improvements ([105:10] - [107:31])

• New faces: Caleb Ferguson, Pierce Johnson, Brock Burke.
• Emilio Pagán returns after 31 saves; bullpen projected to be stronger than last year, especially from the left.

Quote: [106:50] “I kind of always just take the feeling of like nobody understands how to find good bullpen pieces other than the Rays and they're not telling anybody.” – C. Trent Rosecrans

9. Bats, Lineup Flexibility, and Matt McLain’s Rebound ([107:31] - [109:13])

• Few left-handed bats, so new faces like Nate Lowe may make the roster.
• Matt McLain expected to rebound at 2B and could return to top-of-the-lineup form after injury-plagued year.

10. Defining Success for Reds ([109:13] - [110:17])

• Success: Home playoff game and winning a series—something not done since 1995.
• “Advancing in the playoffs, thereby having a home game.”

11. Joey Votto: The Next Great Broadcaster? ([110:17] - [113:06])

• Votto has joined NBC Sports as an analyst.
• Rosecrans predicts:
  “He may not be the best right away, but... he could be the best ever... I can't imagine anyone being any better than Joey Votto.”

Memorable Moments & Quotes (with Timestamps)

• [04:39] “I don't believe in watching porn at work.” – Meg Rowley, joking in reference to prospect video.
• [24:40] “You could be the Yankees after all, so...” – Ben Lindbergh on Red Sox fan grumbling.
• [31:22] “Trevor Story hit 25 last year.” “He's the only one.” – Ben / Alex on lineup power shortages.
• [66:25] “I gave him a hug and it felt like I was hugging that [refrigerator].” – David Ortiz (via Alex Speier) about prospect Justin Gonzalez.
• [87:46] “Sal is also... he transformed his body this offseason. The baby fat is gone.” – C. Trent Rosecrans

Timestamps – Key Segments

• [00:50] – Pirates prospect extension debate
• [13:26] – WBC pitcher usage (Skenes, Skubal)
• [15:43] – Willier Abreu's broken-bat check swing
• [19:59] – Red Sox preview w/ Alex Speier begins
• [22:23] – Red Sox fan discontent/vibes
• [25:28] – Offseason priorities & strategy
• [30:03] – Offensive power: projections & reality
• [36:22] – Caleb Durbin & infield changes
• [39:23] – Outfield/DH logjam, Yoshida/Duran trade rumors
• [44:35] – Roman Anthony prospect breakdown
• [52:55] – Carlos Narvaez: catching find
• [54:05] – Pitching depth: rotation details
• [59:27] – Bullpen construction challenges
• [62:07] – Pitching factory progress
• [64:48] – Defining success for the Red Sox
• [68:35] – Reds preview w/ C. Trent Rosecrans begins
• [70:51] – Playoff drought and fan hunger
• [74:02] – Ellie De La Cruz’s 2025 leg injuries
• [78:50] – Defensive maturation for Ellie
• [80:54] – Ke'Bryan Hayes: relief from Pittsburgh pressure
• [83:10] – Eugenio Suárez’s return and Reds’ power drought
• [85:04] – Noelvi Marte’s shift to outfield
• [87:46] – Sal Stewart: rookie 1B to watch
• [90:32] – Hitting philosophy debate (contact vs. power)
• [94:24] – Prospects to know: Hector Rodriguez
• [95:48] – Rotation: Green, Abbott, Burns, Lowder
• [105:40] – Bullpen upgrades and outlook
• [107:31] – Sorting out the bats, McLain’s rebound
• [109:27] – What constitutes success for the Reds?
• [110:28] – Votto’s future as possible best-ever baseball broadcaster

Closing Thoughts

Both the Red Sox and Reds enter 2026 with renewed hope, driven by promising young cores and more strategically constructed, well-balanced rosters. The Red Sox are seeking the next step forward after a return to the playoffs, relying on pitching depth and incremental offensive improvements. The Reds, after tasting the postseason but still hunting for a home playoff win, are powered by one of baseball’s most exciting young players (Ellie De La Cruz), improved pitching depth, and a gradual organizational transformation. Both teams exemplify the modern blend of data-driven incrementalism—betting on depth and development over splashy superstar signings, aiming for sustainable contention.

Closing quote:
[112:04] “Joey [Votto] doesn't do anything half-assed. If he goes into it, he's going to go to be the best and I think he will.” – C. Trent Rosecrans

Next Episode Preview: Cubs and Guardians.