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Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Effectively Wild Episode 2453: Season Preview Series: Dodgers and Rockies
02:21:26
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- [00:00]
Fabian Ardaya
I just a fan who wants nothing
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Ben Lindbergh
less than effectively wild.
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Fabian Ardaya
Oh, wild, oh wild,
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Ben Lindbergh
oh wild.
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Fabian Ardaya
Nothing less than effectively wild.
- [00:24]
Ben Lindbergh
Hello and welcome to episode 2453 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs, presented by by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Riley of fangraphs. Hello, Meg.
- [00:39]
Meg Riley
Hello.
- [00:40]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, for the, I think third year in a row, we are wrapping up our season preview series with Dodgers and Rockies. Best of times, worst of times. In both episodes. We have arrived at the extremes here, the top projection and the bottom projection. And we will be talking to Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic about the Dodgers and Patrick Lyons of Roc Rockies Insider about the Rockies. Should have just switched it up. We could have had Fabian talk about the Rockies and Patrick talk about the Dodgers. That might have been entertaining too. But we didn't do that.
- [01:13]
Meg Riley
I don't know if that would have been nice to either side of that equation. Right. Because then Fabian has to contemplate a
- [01:21]
Ben Lindbergh
bad team and make poor Patrick like, yeah, Dodgers envy.
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Patrick Lyons
Yeah.
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Meg Riley
Gaze upon what he does not have. That feels. That feels a little rough. You've done it.
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Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Probably all the other NL west teams. Probably sick as it is of the Dodgers seizing the spotlight constantly. So we won't do that. And we didn't do that. But we did do another team preview series. We did another 15 episode odyssey through all 30 teams. Pretty sure we didn't leave any out. Please remind us if we did. But yeah, it's always a lot of labor, a lot of scheduling hassle, but I think well worth it. We thank all of our guests. They are excellent as always, and they give us their time very generously and share their insight. And I'm glad we did it yet again. And it seemed like people, for the most part enjoyed it, as did I. So there.
- [02:13]
Meg Riley
And we must, of course, thank Shane for his diligent editing and producing efforts. This is a time of year where we are often off schedule or at a weird schedule, and these episodes go so long. And it is. It's a huge lift for everyone involved with the show. So good job, Shane. Thank you so much.
- [02:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Yes, we mostly avoided audio disasters this time around, I think because my microphone
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Meg Riley
conspired against us for literally the last episode of Team Preview pods. But here we are. We're back, baby.
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Ben Lindbergh
Yes, there's always some. Some wonky wi fi and people recording at ballparks and background noises, but no
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Meg Riley
slamming doors this year, though.
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Ben Lindbergh
No fire alarms we've ever had. So not bad.
- [02:56]
Meg Riley
Pretty Easy.
- [02:57]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. So congrats to us that we made it through this thing yet again and thanks to everyone for their and their indulgence and what we're going to do. Since we have two substantial previews for you today, and since we're recording on Tuesday afternoon prior to the WBC final between the US And Venezuela, we're just going to table WBC talk for now. We have plenty of thoughts on Team Italy and the semifinal U.S. Dr. Matchup and questionable calls. Actually, we can't even call them questionable, I don't think, but they were bad. We'll get to all that and much more next time because we're going to be back recording tomorrow, Wednesday, and we're just going to do a WBC blowout and we'll get a guest and we'll talk about the championship and we'll talk about everything that led up to it and highs and lows and what we'll remember about this tournament. So we'll, we'll keep our takes holstered for now and we will deploy them all at once and then we will have our bold predictions pod coming later this week. So a lot to look forward to, including the MLB season. That's the thing that we've been previewing for the past several weeks and it's about to start next week, so that's exciting, too. Just a, a few quick thoughts here, all on one subject, which is prompted by some reporting done by fangraph's own Eric Longenhagen. Yes, who, who got some scoops this week.
- [04:26]
Meg Riley
Got a scoop.
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Ben Lindbergh
Reported the contents of a memo that was distributed to teams about minor league rule changes for 2026. Some new variations on a theme, some that will maybe make their way one day to the majors. Or at least that's the idea. Some that probably will remain in the lower levels. So really runs the gamut here. I do have one mini rant, though. Yeah. So look, most of these changes are unobjectionable or fine or good even. I certainly don't have an issue with allowing starting pitcher re entry at the lowest levels of the minus. For instance, we've, we've talked about this in spring training. Now if this were to happen in the big leagues, yeah, that would be bad. But it's not going to. And I feel pretty confident saying that, even though sometimes. Slippery slope, Meg. You know, it's just, we're just testing the Zombie Runner and they do it in international competition. We'll just see how it goes. And hey, in the minors, no sweat. Who wants to play endless games in the minors, the stakes aren't that high. And then next thing we know, it's in the big leagues and we're stuck with it forever, seemingly. But I don't think this is a case of that. This is just for developmental purposes. We've talked about this happening in spring training. If pitchers having a really rough inning, then you get them out of there so that they don't get too demoralized or they don't get too much strain on their arm, and then you can bring them back in after that so they can still get their work in, which is good because I worry about the workloads of minor league pitchers and how light they are these days. So. So, yeah, give them a little more work. That's okay. A little bit of a reset. It's not as if this would really happen in the big leagues even if it were implemented there, I don't think, because especially at the big league level, there are just so many concerns about sitting pitchers and then having them come back out. I guess if it's only a half inning, it wouldn't be that big a deal, but I don't think you'd see it that often just purely for injury concerns, beyond the whole making a mockery of the traditional way that the game has been played issue. But no, that's fine. And that's an example of only in the minors, I think. Think. And then there's some other stuff that I don't mind and little things to try to, you know, keep people honest when it comes to the pitch clock, etc. One thing that I do actually really appreciate is the pitchcom change. So in aaa, you will get charged with a mountain visit. Now, if play is stopped because of an issue with the pitchcom device, at which point the team will have the opportunity to address the issue while the pitch clock is turned off.
- [07:10]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
And if the team does not have a mound visit remaining, which isn't usually the case, but I guess it could, could be the case within an inning. Maybe a pitch clock violation will be assessed, at which point the team will have the opportunity to address the issue while the pitch clock is turned off. This is good, I think, because just too many pitchcom issues. I got it at first when everyone was still getting the hang of this thing, but these days, so many pitchcom issues. It's not just the I can't hear because it's really loud, which is maybe just an occupational hazard, but the whole it's not charged, it's not communicating. Like, get your act together at this Point we're working on years here and so often it happens so often.
- [07:54]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
And it's not to say that I don't have issues with wireless devices in my life from time to time.
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Meg Riley
I've never had a microphone related problem.
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Ben Lindbergh
No. Certainly not today.
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Meg Riley
Certainly not today.
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Ben Lindbergh
But this happens so often that it's hard to avoid the inference that there's some gamesmanship going on here that sometimes.
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Meg Riley
Funny business.
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Ben Lindbergh
Yes. Oh, geez. What? Something's happening with the pitchcom. I guess I need a little extra time here. We need a little breather. That's not why. Just trying to sort out some pitchcom issues. So I'm glad that they're cracking down on this. And hey, the fewer mound visits the merrier as far as I'm concerned, whatever the reason. Anyway, just furthers my anti mound visit agenda. But that's a separate problem. But some other things, you know, like catchers just like little ways that players have come up with to game the pitch clock.
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Meg Riley
Yes.
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Ben Lindbergh
Not to a dramatic extent, but you know, there's been a little bit of creep or backsliding just you know, a couple minutes added here or there. And so say like the pitcher leaving his position to give defensive signals if the catcher's unable to return to the catcher's box with at least nine seconds remaining on the clock. Pitch clock violation. So little things like that and, and cracking down on the mound visits so that when the mound conferences end, all coaches and players other than the pitcher must be off the dirt of the mound and moving toward their positions or the dugout before the mound visit clock reaches zero. And if you don't, if there's some stragglers still on the mound, pitch clock violation. Pitch clock violation for you. So okay, I'm fine with all of that. But I think there is a strain of rule change where I agree with the goal but. But not always the method.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
Because I think the objective is sound. But then instead of doing the difficult work to really confront why is this happening? How can we combat this trend? There's a corner cutting that happens. It's the path of least resistance.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
So one way that this manifests, I think is with this automatic check swing rule, we're adapting some sort of technology to check swing adjudication which has been tested previously and as you have noted seemed like maybe hasn't quite worked the way that it should or could.
- [10:20]
Meg Riley
I think it needs more work. Yeah, I think it is. It is still in need of work. Both the understanding of what it is check swing is. But maybe Most importantly, the way that they're just. Just displaying the challenges I found to be counterintuitive and. And I think will be confusing to people. So some of it is the actual rule itself and whether it comports with sort of our understanding of a checked swing. But also, you know, there's the. The actual mechanism of delivering the result of the challenge that I think could use a little work too. So.
- [10:56]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, and. And that's why we're testing it. Right. So that it can work. So. So that's fine. But it's the. The former that bugs me a bit. Just the definition of what it is. I'm on board with the. Let's try to figure out a way to use technology to call this because it Completely agree. Frustratingly inconsistent.
- [11:15]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
Which probably the root cause is that a swing isn't actually defined really in the rulebook. And so, yeah, there are rules of thumb and it feels like a swing. It doesn't feel like a swing. But yeah, it can be quite frustrating. And so, yes, let's absolute some sort of rule and have some workable technology. But it is extremely lenient in its current incarnation.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
And I don't think that is because it's sort of a. Well, first, do no harm. Let's see if this works before we really intervene more. Maybe that's part of it, but I think it's more because they want fewer strikeouts. Yeah. And. And I generally want fewer strikeouts, too. But if one way we're engineering fewer strikeouts is to have almost nothing that we would consider a check swing count as an actual swing, because right now it's. It's the maximum angle between the bat head and the bat handle exceeds 45 degrees, that will be considered a swing. Anything less than that, not considered a swing. And the way that works out in practice is that you can really go around. I mean, you really can go around. Yeah. Unless you basically do a full swing. Yep. Then you are not going to be assessed a check swing. And when they tested this in the Florida State League last season, the strikeout rate dropped by more than 3 percentage points.
- [12:43]
Meg Riley
Yep.
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Ben Lindbergh
Which seems like a good thing. And look, there may have been other things going on. I don't know that this was solely because of this. I don't know how many calls it affects, how commonly this is actually used, but it's probably a contributing factor. And so while I agree with the goal, I think if we just sort of redefine a check swing almost never to be a swing, and we say mission accomplished. Fewer strikeouts. Well, yeah, we could just, we could just say that there's no such thing as a swing period anymore and we'd hardly have any strikeouts. We'd only have looking ones, you know, or so I think that needs some, some work as you see. And, and if this is the end goal of, well, we'll just, we'll get the goal that we want of no strikeouts by redefining or defining for the first time, but in a way that no one would really recognize as the prior, you know, way that this was handled that I don't love. And there are all sorts of difficult ways, or if not difficult, at least, you know, you'd have to overcome some resistance, whether it's like moving the mound back or just all of the sort of, you know, limit the number of pitchers and then the pitchers have to pace themselves and they can all throw as hard as the they want. And I think that would address a lot of ills with the game. But there's also a lot of resistance to that. And so you say, well, maybe on the margins we can just do this. And okay, if you really think that you can't sell any of the other methods and there's just going to be so much pushback and you just say, well, let's do what we can, like I can be an incrementalist, I'm okay with that. I don't think it all has to be in one go, but I don't think that you can just kind of fudge it in that way.
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Meg Riley
I think that's right. I think that it is under defined or perhaps too generously defined as it is currently constituted. And it feels like something where we're, you know, we should, as you said, take advantage of all of the tracking technology. We have to bring precision to this question because it is, I think that sometimes like baseball knowers will joke like ah, we don't have to deal with football like they can can't define a catch. This is our version that, you know, we're, we're very haughty about these things, but we, we are not all on the same page about a swing. Right. So I think we should bring technology to bear to fix this. It doesn't seem like it's, we're not losing anything, you know, about the, the majesty of the game by doing that. But this definition doesn't seem like it's really about trying to bring a good reliable understanding to our definition of a check swing and more about reducing strikeouts and seeing this as, as an area where, you know, there's, there's some low hanging fruit that we could pluck and that it seems like you're putting the emphasis on the wrong syllable, as it were. Like make it about a workable good definition of a swing and a, and a check swing and you know, an appropriate reduction or change and strikeout might follow. But that, I don't think we're getting it quite right here. So I'm with you. I don't, I don't care for it. I think it still needs work to be ready for primetime. So yeah, yeah.
- [16:01]
Ben Lindbergh
I hope that they test the technology. The technology works. And then maybe they say we actually need to make this a bit more stringent because people object to it, but we'll see how that plays out. And even though MLB strikeout rate has plateaued or even perhaps declined slightly in recent years for various reasons, I think the shift ban is another example of the kind of thing we're talking about. Maybe a good goal. Although the goal may partly have just been about people being upset that certain batted balls that looked like hits off the bat weren't turning into hits. But the idea of let's get a little more offense in the game. Sure. I just didn't think that would have a huge effect in addition to being somewhat opposed to it philosophically. And it just sort of felt like slapping a band aid on something that really required stitches. A measure that was both blunt, heavy handed, but also addressing a symptom at best instead of the underlying cause. So among the new rules, the other manifestation of that, I think is with stolen bases.
- [16:59]
Meg Riley
It's so doofy. It's such a. It's so. It's bad and dumb.
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Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Look, MLB wants more stolen bases, wants more action on the base pass. So do I. Yeah.
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Meg Riley
I love that.
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Ben Lindbergh
Sounds good. Yeah. But you can take it too far.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
One reason why we like stolen bases is because they're exciting and because there's at least some scarcity to them, which contributes to the excitement. And there's also some suspense to someone might actually get thrown out. Yeah. You're really. You're risking something.
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Meg Riley
Yes.
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Ben Lindbergh
And so if you keep turning the slider to make it more and more easy mode for the runner.
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Meg Riley
Agree.
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Ben Lindbergh
Then yes, you can inflate stolen base counts, but each individual stolen base will be robbed of much of its.
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Meg Riley
Exactly.
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Ben Lindbergh
Because it's so common and because there's really no recourse because if you're fast enough, you just have every possible edge here. So.
- [17:57]
Fabian Ardaya
Right.
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Ben Lindbergh
Some of these changes, I, I think are less inelegant than others for Example, the repositioning of second base. So it sounds funny, it sounds sort of bold. I mean, W. We're moving second base. And what about the 90ft between bases? And isn't that sacred and inviolable and everything? Well, this has actually happened before. This. This has been tested in the miners before. So this is not new. It might be new to some people, but it has happened before, and there is sort of a logical reason to do it. And Jason Stark wrote a deep dive into the movement of second base back in 2022, because in a way, it's. It's always kind of been in the wrong place, arguably. So, you know, he has a diagram. We will link to this, but I'll just quote him here. And he's quoting some research done by Tom Scheiber of the hall of Fame, former effectively wild guest. But. But he writes, Since 1887, second base has never been positioned quite the same way as the other bases. How can that be, you ask? I ask the same question. He has a diagram. He says, hopefully you'll see that one of these base things is not like the others. See where first base and third base are located? They're nestled into their natural corners on each side of the diamond. But now check out second base. It looks lovely positioned aesthetically in the middle of the infield. Just one problem, it's not nestled into its own natural corner of the diamond. Instead, it's too deep, geometrically speaking, positioned so that the imaginary corner runs right through the middle of the bag. Why? I knew you'd ask. The short explanation is that first base and third base were repositioned to help umpires make fair foul calls, because once they were moved to their current locales, any ball that hit the bag was obviously fair. But that's not an issue with second base, since no fair foul lines run through the middle of the field. So when first base and third base were moved in the late 19th century, second base stayed put. So it is actually a bit of an outlier. And it was never really 90ft in the first place. That was just kind of a convenient fiction. So the old distance was really like 88ft and an inch and a half. And then the new distance is sort of like 87ft. But then, of course, there was the size of the bag. The bags got bigger, too. So look, the. The bases being bigger didn't change things in isolation that much, and it quickly became kind of unnoticeable. This won't change things that much either. And in a sense, it's sort of Righting the wrong, I guess, in a way. This long standing asymmetrical positioning of second base. So okay, I don't mind that. No one would really notice probably. And that's good, I guess. But the disengagement limit. So we already have the disengagements. Two disengagements allowed before. It's a bach. Because you can't just be up there just doing a bach like that. And in double A, they're testing the disengagement limit being reduced from two to one.
- [20:54]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
When their runners on base, pitchers may pick off or step off once during a plate appearance without penalty. If they disengage a second time and all runners return safely, time will be called and all runners will be advanced one base. So that's really restrictive to take it down from two to one. And that seems like something they might be testing with an eye towards. Will this work at higher levels? Yeah, there's also some stuff about like limiting batters from calling time. I mean this is pitch clock related to. And you know, batters have to come back to the box quickly. In double A and AAA high A batters will be permitted to request time with runners on base only. Can't request time with the base is empty Single A batters will not be permitted to request time. It's just. It's speed chess. It's speed baseball. That's. That's somewhat unrelated. I guess that's more related to the pitch clock. And that seems a little harsh to take away timeouts entirely. But. But the disengagement limit, I think if they are thinking maybe we want to extend that to the big league level at some point, I think that's probably taking it too far for me because that's just swinging things so far in favor of the runner and giving pitchers even less of a check on them. And I think you would see just another increase in the stolen base attempt success rate. And I think I would no longer be so delighted, so charmed by that action on the base paths.
- [22:20]
Meg Riley
Yeah, I think that it's the sort of thing where we did an admirable job. Not you and I, we had very little to do with it, but the game did a really good job of implementing the pitch clock. We had all of these gains not only in the time reduction, but also just the breeziness of the gain, the speed of the thing. I think that there is, is operating in the background of a lot of these changes. Not only a desire to, you know, sort of juice the aesthetics of the game by Increasing stolen bases, but also an anxiety perhaps about the effect that the challenge system might have on time of game. You start check, checking in on these other little potential time savers as a means of clawing back tiny, tiny changes in game time as a result of challenging. I don't think that that is strictly necessary. For one thing, we don't really see like a huge explosion in game times in the minors with challenges. But also, it's not dead time. Right. Like, you're not, you're not like taking away the pitch clock. And all of a sudden you have all these guys with their fussing. So much fussing. We don't have a less fuss right now. You're all just looking at the challenge screen. I don't think that we need to spend time satisfying that anxiety yet. And then I agree with you that while I want there to be like more stolen bases, because stolen bases are fun, I want them to be earned. Right. And I think that this is something that we could all maybe do a better job of. Although I think you and I do a good job of it. So I'll say good job, good job. Effectively wild here. I think that we still sometimes as like a collective fail to recognize the skill piece of stealing bases. Like, we, we focus so much on the speed, and obviously that matters so much. But as Josh Naylor taught us, one does not steal bases on speed alone, Ben.
- [24:24]
Ben Lindbergh
That's true. Yes. And. And usually you've needed some modicum of speed in addition to smarts and instincts and everything.
- [24:31]
Meg Riley
Sure, sure.
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Ben Lindbergh
It was very charming to see, wait one Sodo can lead the league or tie for the lead league and stolen bases. Look at Josh Naylor go. Yeah, and it was always charming when you had sort of sneaky base Steelers. But I wonder whether now if that catches on like when we had Brent Rooker and Vinnie Pasquintino on and we're like, hey, what's stopping you guys? Look at Soto go. Look at Naylor go. You guys are that faster, faster. Why can't. And blitz. And they did sort of seem to say, well, you do have to think about it, because if you can do it, then why can't I?
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Meg Riley
Right?
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Ben Lindbergh
If that were to catch on. And suddenly. Because I think that's so. It's surprising that those guys did that. And so that's why it was interesting.
- [25:13]
Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Ben Lindbergh
And if it just became normalized to the point where, well, anyone can just steal 30 bags or whatever like we talked about this about, you know, is 30, 30 still. Still special or as special as it was Obviously, you still have to do both of those things, or 4040 or whatever. Like, has there been some inflation in those stats to the point that it's. It's not as exclusive a group, clearly. And, you know, I even extended this to shohei Ohtani in 50 50. Would he have done that? Under the previous rules, perhaps not. Right. So it does make it a little easier. Now, no one's questioning Shohei Ohtani's speed, obviously, but if it becomes common for people who are not thought of as fast and are not actually fast, then suddenly the cachet of the base dealer, that kind of goes away. Right? And maybe there's still a little bit of value there, but it doesn't thrill us the way that it did. So you do still need some speed, skill to come into play. And if it becomes a given, if it's. If you actually are fast, you're essentially uncatchable. And even if you're not fast, you can still rack up stolen bases, well, then I think we lose a lot of the luster. I'm not saying we're quite, quite there yet, but if they continue to make it easier and easier for base runners, I just think that if you really want it sort of to happen organically, maybe it's tough because, look, people are more conscious of the cost of getting thrown out, and people are looking at the numbers and people are looking at the injury risk. And so I do understand why it's the league's role sometimes to step in. And when teams start doing something differently or less often, which may be in their best interest, it might not be in the best interest of the sport. That's where the league comes in and says, well, fans like this, so we want to make you do it more. But if you do it more that way, as opposed to, well, maybe we just get more action on the bases by having more runners on base, by just having more traffic, because we help bolster batting averages and on base percentages and guys are back on base again. And maybe, you know, there are various ways one could do that. Maybe it is something with limiting pitchers. Maybe it is limiting the use of positioning cards, Whatever it is, right. Like we have super low batting averages. And on the whole, I think fans would probably prefer for them to be higher. But. Right. You do have to do the work. You kind of have to confront the problem head on as opposed to just sort of saying, well, if we twist this knob, then it'll kind of superficially look like the thing that we actually. The result that we want to Engineer here.
- [27:49]
Meg Riley
Right. Yeah. I don't want to reduce either of the dimensions of base running. Right. I don't want speed to be enough on its own, and I don't want savvy to be enough on its own. I want, I want it to be something that is demonstrative of a real skill. And so I, I do worry that some of these ones that are a little heavy, heavier handed are gonna tip the balance in the wrong way, I will say. Just like in general. And we are not in the business of handing it to him very often we are skeptical of the commissioner as a rule. I do continue to think that the willingness to both engage with potential rule change and also move on from ones that don't work well with speed is one of the things that marks Manfred's sort of administration more positively than you might expect given some of the other fuddy, duddy characters characteristics that he exhibits. So, you know, I don't agree with
- [28:52]
Ben Lindbergh
every way in which he has tinkered, but, but I do applaud the willingness to tinker and to test things and to take their time and try to get it right at least.
- [29:02]
Meg Riley
Yeah. And I, you know, I do want to have some amount of reverence for the real purpose of the minor leagues, which is to develop major league baseball players. And so I am mindful of like their there probably being an outer bound pass, which doing this is like. So hey, can you just let them like figure out how to not like flail at spin, you know, like that's what they're there to do. They're there to try to become the best possible baseball players they can be. And sure, having it as a laboratory is probably our best setting for it, but like, let's have some amount of respect for these guys in their careers too. And I don't know that we're in like an, an overload situation now, but I do want to keep an eye on that piece of it because it's like, you know, the guy, the guys in the Florida State League, they're trying to make the majors too, you know, Q.
- [29:56]
Ben Lindbergh
Lab league.
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Meg Riley
Lab league.
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Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, Morgan.
- [30:01]
Meg Riley
Anyway, Morgan. Am I going to have to retire the joke if he ends up being the commissioner?
- [30:07]
Ben Lindbergh
No, I think we should bring it back, lean into Morgan, do it even more. More Morgan.
- [30:11]
Meg Riley
I mean, we're going to, to. Here's the thing. If that guy ends up being the commissioner, just by virtue of the job, we're going to have plenty of opportunities to go. Morgan.
- [30:19]
Ben Lindbergh
It's true. Yes. Morgan Sword. That is for, for folks who are not in on the bit. The executive vice president of baseball operations at mlb, one of the people who's typically in charge of running these experiments and overseeing them, and also sometimes mentioned as a possible commissioner candidate down the road. But yes, and another purpose of minor league baseball is to, to entertain fans. And that's, that's a purpose that MLB has not always served by restricting the supply of minor league games. So that does not always seem to be at the top of their mind, which we have lamented. And I do think that, you know, you talk about the. Just like fiddling on the margins with some of the time stuff and how it's not as important anymore. There was a time when that was all they did, though. And so it does remind me of, you know, how pre pitch clock, it was always like, okay, we're cracking down. We're not going to let people walk around outside the batter's box and they're not going to adjust their batter's gloves and they got to be back in the box in however many seconds. And that would work for a season or part of a season, and they'd trim some minutes and then it would not be enforced and we'd go right back to what it was. The pitch clock, though that has worked like that, you know, every now and then, okay, yeah, a minute minute added here, a minute added there, and maybe you crack down and try to keep it tight. But that has solved that problem of fiddling around the margins, really, because that was just overdue, I think, given the history of the pitch clock, which I wrote and podcasted about. But once they implemented it, yeah, you know, problem solved pretty much. So kudos on that. And I did one of my colleagues at the Ringer who writes and edits basketball stuff primarily, we were talking the other day and he mentioned MLB in sort of an envious way when it came to the league's willingness to try new things and experiment with rules in contrast to the NBA and other leagues. And wow, what a narrative shift because for the longest time it was hidebound baseball traditionalists, they never want to do anything because everyone will be up in arms and. And now that reputation has has flipped where baseball is seen, at least in some quarters, as one of the more progressive leagues in this country when it comes to making tweaks to, to, to the rules to try to bring about certain results. But I think there, there are things that they could do that they aren't doing. But yes, I'm glad that they're willing to do anything. And one last little Thing that they're doing here is trying to keep those darn base coaches in the, the darn base coach boxes.
- [32:53]
Meg Riley
They are so intense about this. They are really, really working hard to keep those guys in the box.
- [33:01]
Fabian Ardaya
Man.
- [33:01]
Meg Riley
They, they should pull a little fence or something.
- [33:03]
Ben Lindbergh
I know it's going to be like a shock collar situation. It's, it's like they're, they're outside of their bounds. Get back in that box. Get back in your base coach cage. I mean, if I had my druthers, they would be confined to the dugout, but I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.
- [33:19]
Meg Riley
You would have such a, such interesting priorities if you were the commissioner.
- [33:23]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, this is not my day one necessarily, cracking down on coaching, encroaching on the field. But, you know, it's week one, maybe if I played, if I were commissioner anyway, if Rob Benford were commissioner, he would probably do some things to dampen the Dodgers outlook. But if he were. That's true. He is the commissioner. It's true. True. Yeah, I forgot about that for a moment. But no, I misspoke. Unlike, Unlike perhaps Mark DeRosa, I did actually know that he was the commissioner. And I did just have a slip of the tongue there. That was an actual instance of misspeaking. But yes, despite Rob Manfred's hopes, perhaps. Although I wonder if you, if you gave him the truth serum, you know, like, is there some part of him that would say maybe it's good to have a heel, good to have a villain for baseball, who knows? Especially if it's a big market team. But the Dodgers are projected to be about nine wins, I think, or 10 wins, maybe better than any other team, according to both fan graphs and baseball Prospectus, which not a guarantee of anything, obviously, as past Dodgers teams have shown. But they do have a better than one in four chance to win the World Series for the third time in a row, according to the current fangraph's playoff odds, which is the highest on record in the decade or so that you can easily look up. So it's baseball. The odds are still against them. You'd still favor the field, but yeah, pretty good team. So let's take a quick break and we'll talk about that team with Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic, followed by a team that is not quite as good, but is certainly interesting and doing some things differently, the Colorado Rockies with Patrick Lines.
- [35:06]
Fabian Ardaya
How are you? I'm okay. We got so much to do today breaking balls and blakin snails. And those stats won't blast themselves. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effect.
- [35:30]
Patrick Lyons
Effectively wild.
- [35:33]
Fabian Ardaya
Effectively wild.
- [35:35]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, we're joined now by the Athletics Fabian Ardaya, who could have stuck it out like Mike Trout and continued to cover the Angels do it the hard way, but instead, much like Shohei Ohtani, albeit before Shohei Ohtani, he chose to go to the other LA and chase success and stardom and the prospect of covering a World Series. And he's been richly rewarded, like Shohei, with two World Series titles that he has been able to chronicle on the Dodgers beat, though presumably a little less deferred money than Shohei has. Fabian, welcome. I hope it's all been worthwhile.
- [36:13]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, less money in general than Shohei Ohtani, along with the deferred money, but it's been good. And yeah, I signed away my Octobers for perpetuity and covering the Dodgers.
- [36:23]
Ben Lindbergh
That's true. Not the that beat writers of teams that aren't in the playoffs just get to take that month off entirely. But you do, you do have to do a little more work. It's true. So you know, we talked to Sam Blum recently. He's leaving the Angels beat. You left the Angels beat. Maybe there's something of a, a theme here, who knows? But you just had to go to the other Los Angeles team, the one that's actually in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers. Now I'm, I'm racking my brain trying to remember anything about this team, the Dodgers. That's a name I've not heard in a long time. Long time. We haven't had much occasion to talk about them. So you'll have to refresh my memory. I guess maybe since the Dodgers have had a somewhat normal spring training and you have had a somewhat normal spring training, less travel, you're not having to open the season weeks early or go to another continent or anything, though some Dodgers have to play in the wbc. I wonder if you could sort of sum up how Dodgers camp has been the quiet Dodgers camp while everyone is away at the tournament. Because we did talk recently about how if you want to try to find some cracks in the foundation of the Dodgers, you could. And it's pitcher injuries, the old bugaboo of this team, it's Blake Snell, it's Gavin Stone, it's the shakiness of Roki Sasaki, though he looked a little bit better after the last time we talked about him. So any concerns, any indications that this Dodgers squad will not be the juggernaut that everyone expects or has all mostly gone?
- [37:57]
Fabian Ardaya
Well, to quote Dave Roberts camp has been boring.
- [38:00]
Ben Lindbergh
Okay.
- [38:00]
Fabian Ardaya
I think that's one of those things that it's a good thing. Obviously, if you're the Dodgers, you want it to be boring. I think they've kind of treated as knowing. They're acknowledging that this is a very veteran group that also is not used to a normal spring training. So that's why you saw like Bui Bets not get into a Cactus League game for a full week, why they've slow played guys, why Blake Snell really didn't ramp up up in the spring until about a week ago. It was his first bullpen session. So I think the Dodgers understand the situation that they're in. I think they understand that no news is good news in a lot of ways, especially with it being such a veteran group. I think they're anticipating that knowing how much this lineup is kind of consisting of guys past the age of 30, that they probably have to bake in some periods where they know that age is going to show itself. And that might be the only concern as of right now with this roster is just like understanding that guys are going to miss time eventually. It's just a matter of sequencing it. Right. It worked out perfectly for them last year with pitching side. Obviously they had Tyler Glass now and Blake Snell miss several months. I think the only guy in the rotation to go wire to wire was the Oceanobi Yamamoto. But they managed to have all their main starters healthy, healthy by the end of the season. And that's why they were able to ride that starting rotation to another World Series title.
- [39:23]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, of course it didn't at all work out that well in 2024 and they won the World Series anyway. So, you know, I guess it's not. Damned if they do not damned if they don't. Dodgers win either way. But was your perception of their somewhat so so regular season last year? And I know that there are some fans who are rolling their eyes right now hearing that a 93 win, first place finish season.
- [39:48]
Patrick Lyons
So.
- [39:49]
Ben Lindbergh
But obviously it wasn't what they were forecasted for. It isn't what they're forecasted for this season. And some people attributed that to the Dodgers taking their foot off the gas that intentionally. They didn't really try to push it because as you said, they're just trying to get everyone healthy when October rolls around. But also, some guys actually were hurt.
- [40:09]
Patrick Lyons
Right.
- [40:09]
Ben Lindbergh
These were not all just phantom injuries and these were not just, hey, take your time coming back. We don't need you to October. So to what degree was that the Dodgers Prioritizing octo over the regular season. And to what degree was it some stuff actually going wrong?
- [40:25]
Fabian Ardaya
I think a lot of it was. For one, like you mentioned, some of the guys were actually dealing with injuries. Like Blake Snell's shoulder was kind of on fumes by the end of the World Series. TE Oscar Hernandez was never fully 100% after his groin issue. Mookie Bats obviously had the stomach virus at the beginning of the season. He felt like he was kind of chasing his tail the rest of the year. And I feel like, I don't know if he would say, say it this way, but I think he worked so hard to try to get back to where he wanted to be by the end of the season that he was either pressing or running out of gas by October. And that's why his October numbers slipped a little bit. So they had some real concerns, but also like they just also didn't play well for extended stretches of last season. Even when guys were healthy, even when they were had enough guys that you would think that you would have have successful stretches. I, I always think back to that big road trip in early September to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Two last place teams where the Dodgers lose 5 of 6 by multiple walkoff losses in that stretch, including the game where Yoshinobi Yamoto was one out away from a no hitter. And that was a real low point. And I think it exposed a lot of things about the Stouters team that were genuine concerns that continue to show themselves in October. Like they're off offense. Obviously the end of season numbers were really good, but it was a very much an inconsistent offense second half of the season and into October. And that bullpen was a massive issue that never really got corrected. Even the small band aids that they put on with Roki Sasaki, that he wasn't quite as dominant the last couple rounds of that postseason run. And you saw in game seven where every single person who appeared had been also a starter at some point, point in this season. So like that's kind of who was left in, who Dave Roberts trusted. And I think that kind of showed itself. They didn't play all that great for extended stretches of that second half and that postseason. But I think one of the things that Miguel Rojas kind of told me when I was going through game seven with him was yeah, they didn't play great, but they won moments. And I think that's what the Dodgers kind of needed to do in that scenario. But they still won the World Series by the skin of their teeth.
- [42:29]
Meg Riley
It's Interesting, because, you know, there's a lot about the Dodgers that seems complete and done and then you look at their off season approach and it does seem like they were motivated to address specifically the things that annoyed or vexed them in the postseason. So you don't have the bullpen you want. You have to rely on your starters and Yamamoto on zero days rest. Well, go get Edwin Diaz. You're worried about the offense. You don't want to see, you know, TE Oscar Hernandez in right field field ever again. No problem. Go get Kyle Tucker. So maybe we can start with those guys because, you know, what more is there to say about Freddie Freeman at this point? Talk to us about the Kyle Tucker signing, how it came together, and the, the contract structure in particular, because I think that a lot of people thought he might be in line for, you know, a 13 year long $300 million deal and instead he seemed more comfortable with this high AAV short term structure. So talk to us about talking Tucker.
- [43:27]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, I think the Dodgers thought Kyle Tucker wanted that long term deal too, which is part of why, like they had some of the pessimism they did at the beginning of the off season. They've been wanting to give out this type of contract structure dating back to even when they were pursuing Bryce Harper. Like they, they always are kind of have sort of seen the high AAV low term kind of structure as ideal for how they like to do things. And obviously they're in a position now where they're able to, to have even more revenue than they had even back then when they were pursuing Harper and they're maximizing it for sure. Tucker was never like, he was always a guy that they were interested in, but he was never a guy that I think a lot of Dodgers people really expected themselves to be able to land. Like they were talking early in the off season about, all right, what does a platoon look like with Alex Call and Brian Ward who have been knocking on the door just with his AAA production for a couple years here. And even if they didn't get like, if they did go outside the organization to add someone, it would be someone e under club control for a couple of years who hadn't hit free agency yet or someone on that shorter term, which is why someone like a Cody Bellinger possibly made some sense. But once it became pretty clear that Kyle Tucker was open to the shorter term, higher AAV kind of contract structure, and obviously the news kind of came out about the Mets trying to go to that structure as well, I think they started to realize they actually had a chance and I think they really, really felt like they had a chance. A couple days before they came to the agreement, they went on a zoom call and they realized that the questions that he was asking were more down the line questions than they even anticipated him asking. So I don't think they went into this offseason expecting to land Kyle Tucker, but if they were going to land him, this was exactly how the Dodgers wanted it to happen. I'm sure they were fine spending less money, but I think that the four year structure with a two year opt out lines up perfectly not just for what they're wanting to do right now, but also for the future with their crop of young outfield prospects who could be in the big leagues or close to the big leagues by the time that first opt out comes up.
- [45:32]
Ben Lindbergh
And did you get any sense of how they landed him? Instead of other teams landing him that were also pursuing him, The Blue Jays seemed to be offering him the longer term style structure. The Mets seemed to be offering a deal that was more along the lines of the one the Dodgers gave him. So there was a lot of speculation about, well, is it just because it's the Dodgers and they always win and people want to play for a winner or he wants to keep a low profile. He likes the idea of being surrounded by bigger stars so that he can just kind of blend into the background and be productive. Did you get the sense there was anything to that? And have you gotten a feel for Tucker in camp and how he's fitting onto the team?
- [46:11]
Fabian Ardaya
I'm sure like there's a combination of all of it and honestly like just being around him, this camp, like he was also gone for a week because he was welcoming the birth of his first child. But like he, he's kind of quietly fit in and it's one of those things where he can kind of blend into the background. In any other camp in baseball, pretty much he would probably be the biggest story going and he's just sort of there and he's a guy who's obviously the Dodgers are really excited about what he can do, what strides maybe he can take to even get better than he, where he's been. They kind of know he's 29 and that this is possibly a chance to really have the big year and they want to be sort of employing him for part of it. But I, I do think that players at this point like they, they just kind of want to play in la. I mean, that's how they got Blake Snell. He basically said Like, I wanted to cut off my free agency earlier and I wanted to play in LA like I wanted, and basically instructed Scott Boris to kind of like, construct a deal that would make that happen. And even the guy like Edwin Diaz was like, like, I. That's part of why he didn't go back to the Mets, try to counter the offer or try to see if they would match the offers. Part of it. He wanted to be in la. And I. I think players have always kind of appreciated what the Dodgers have done on a dev side and on a. Taking care of their players, families and all that other stuff behind the scenes. They've always kind of appreciated that. But also, it's hard to really argue with what the Dodgers have going on right now, how much they're continuing to throw money around in a way that so many other teams in the sport aren't.
- [47:38]
Meg Riley
Let's talk about one of the guys who you've already mentioned, who they threw a bunch of money at a while ago, which is Mookie Betts. I think we were all hoping that he would recover from that early illness sooner than he did. Things seemed a little more promising toward the end. But I'm curious, sort of, what your expectations are for Bets this year. How much of last season swoon is attributable to that early illness, the loss of weight, and how much of this is maybe the fact that he's 33 and eventually even really great players start to decline a bit?
- [48:09]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, I think that's the big existential question the Dodgers have had to answer about Mookie Bets. And I think they're leaning with the option that they hope is the actual answer, which is they're thinking that this is a result of the illness. They sort of look at some of the batspeed metrics, stuff like that, that Mookie Bets has really gotten into the last few years. Even going back to when he went with some Dodger teammates to Driveline in 2023, he's been obsessed with the idea of, like, maintaining his bat speed, even though he doesn't have, like, the most electric bat speed there is. Like, in fact, he's on the lower side of things, but with his swing the way it's built, it's so reliant on bat speed that the added mile of an hour or two or loss of mile an hour or two really has an even bigger impact, probably than most players for him. And he feels like he's gotten that back to where it was at the end of spring last year, which is going into last Spring he was trying to get his bat speed back up to where it was in 2023 after he had taken a dip in 2024. So they. They think that that's back in a good spot. He's actually been working out with Yoshinobi. Yamamoto's basically his guru. Like the. They call him Yada Sensei. Osamu Yata is his name. And that's the guy who sort of has taught Yamamoto a lot of his training techniques. And Mookie Bets has kind of adopted some of them on his own. Throwing the javelins even was like carrying Osamu Yada around the Dodger spring compl morning. He's doing all kinds of stretching stuff. They're kind of hoping that that's all stuff that can sort of override whatever effects there are of him being 33 years old and all of a sudden sliding up on the defensive spectrum to shortstop and hoping that. That those things can sort of help stave off whatever effects of aging there is. I Mookie Bets, like I think Dave Roberts has said, like he still thinks that there's an MVP level season in their form. I think think his shortstop defense gives him a huge floor for being valuable for the Dodgers. And really I don't think he needs to be back to peak offensive Mookie Bets levels to be the type of superstar the Dodgers are kind of expecting him to be. But I do expect him maybe to take a step forward from where he ended up last year, which was essentially a league average hitter.
- [50:13]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. And even though it was a down year with the bat, it was a better year with the glove. And as you noted, it's a very unusual transition that he is making period. Let alone at this age and with his resume. And he's pulled it off the stats and the eye test. I think agreed that he was more natural and obviously more practiced over there last season. What is the plan if there is one long term for that position? Because Mookie obviously will be a Dodger for quite a few more years, but how long do you think they envision him holding down that position? And in the short term, how does the rest of the infield alignment look?
- [50:51]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, I think if you ask Mookie Bets, he wants to keep doing it for at least a few more years. I think everyone kind of acknowledges that probably second but basis which gimme's long term fit like that's sort of going to be where you eventually have to slide over to. But even Dave Robertson, you'd see Mookie Betts doing this for a couple more years, especially with the level of defense that he showed last year where he was a Gold Glove finalist. He not only was adequate out there, he was good. Like, he made stuff happen. Obviously, everyone kind of knows the play to end the World Series, but even that NLDS series where they call the wheel play, that, that was Mookie Bets. His, his idea to put that on and his baseball instincts, and that's the sort of thing that the Dodgers, that convinced the Dodgers that he was even capable of even trying this in the first place. So I, I would imagine it's at least a couple years for Mookie bats it short and we'll, we'll see in the future. Like, obviously they have Alex Freeland, who they're still pretty high on, Hae Sung Kim, who they're still pretty high on long term. Hae Sung Kim's possibly as a club option after next season, I, I believe, but like, those are options who can play shortstop in a pinch, and those are both guys who are vying for the second base role until Tommy Edmond gets back. But obviously there's a lot of stuff about this future infield that's pretty much in flux when you have Max Muny, who's under contract through at least next season with an option at the end of it, and, and Freddie Freeman, who's got a couple more years left on his deal as well. This is an older group, so, like, it's going to look differently in the next couple years, but it's definitely something that the Dodgers have to consider going forward with some of guys like Freeland, Kim, even a guy like adult in rushing, like, where does he kind of fit into it?
- [52:30]
Meg Riley
Yeah, I wanted to ask about Edmond. How is his rehab progressing? When do they expect him back? And then, you know what, what hopes do they have that he might look a little more like the guy that he was at the peak of his power in St. Louis? Because we're coming up on a couple of years now of a league average or slightly below bat. He's still defensively stout, but he hasn't been able to offer quite as much of the plate.
- [52:54]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, Evan's taking batting practice on the field. It's still going to be a few weeks until he's back off that off season ankle surgery. And I think to listen to Edmond talk about, like, he said his ankle has been right. Like, he's felt normal with that ankle for one month in the last, like two and a half years. And that was in last April when he was able to take the whole off season after 2024 rehab it get it in a good place pace and he had, I think it was an eight something OPS that year. And last year in April the power was really good. Like he was playing multiple positions, doing what he needed to do and then he aggravated the ankle in a different way, a different part of the ankle, but also like it was obviously not a very stable ankle at that point and he was kind of playing through it. Had to go back on the IL for it a second time last season and was never fully running right. And you saw offensively he took a turn and obviously defensively they weren't able to use him the way they wanted to. They didn't want to use him in the outfield at all by the end of the season until they absolutely had to in the World Series. So he wasn't the same guy with that ankle. He finally got it addressed surgically this offseason. But they're going to take things slow with him this season I think because they know especially with him like he was so willing to play with with it not 100% last year and you saw the end result. I don't think they're going to bring him back until it's completely 100% because they want to use him and his versatility to the best of their ability, especially with the way the roster fits. So yeah, I think they're expecting more Tommy Edmond when he is in the lineup, but I also don't think they're rushing to bring him back.
- [54:30]
Ben Lindbergh
Speaking of rushing, you mentioned him just a moment ago. He is pretty blocked right now by Will Smith who's coming off a huge year offensively and Smith's defense has been of kind, kind of up and down. He went from being a pretty decent framer who couldn't throw to a good thrower who couldn't frame. And then last year was a little bit of both, I guess. But obviously he's pretty entrenched at that position and rushing had a rough rookie year but he didn't get to play regularly and you want someone like that to play regularly. But there's just no prospect of that happening anytime soon barring injury because Smith and Otani are locked up long term. So what do you do with him? Is he even potentially potentially a trade candidate?
- [55:14]
Fabian Ardaya
I wouldn't be surprised if his name comes up in trade talks. But I also, I don't see. I think the Dodgers, at least as of right now, they're messaging like they see Smith and rushing as they're catching tandem with the future. And they want Rushing to sort of take that next step. But I mean it's gonna be really difficult for him to do that. Like you said, in a small sort of window of starting twice a week, which is basically what the role that they envision for him right now. And that's a role also that Dalton Rushing has admitted like he did not handle well at all last season. It's one of those things where I even asked him like, do you sort of process in the moment, like what you're. You're feeling in that moment where you feel like you're trying to do too much in those short at bats and those sort of short sample sizes? And he's like, yeah, you do feel it, you're conscious of it, but there's nothing you can do to really stop yourself of it in a way where you want to impress. You want to be the hitter that you've always been. Like, this is a guy who op guessed above.900 throughout the miners. Like he hit at every level. He had a steady approach. He always prided himself on his knowledge of the strike zone and he got away from that in the small sample last year, partially because he didn't have as many looks at like sort of gauging where the zone is, but also because he was chasing, trying to make stuff happen. And I think he at least mentally seems to be in a better place coming into this camp. It hasn't been the best camp for in productive offensively despite the fact that he's been in there really regularly and getting the regular bats he's wanted. But he seems like he understands the role at this stage. But at some point the results are going to have to come. I know Will Smith has been, when it kind of went out of his way this offseason to kind of talk to him about how difficult it is to break in as a regular position player on the Soldiers lineup. There's nobody who understands Elton Rushing's current position more than Will Smith. Even though, though Will Smith didn't have a guy with a 10 year contract extension playing ahead of him at catcher, but he still had to break his way in and have some success. But yeah, it's going to be pretty incumbent on Dalton Rushing to kind of find a way to either tweak his approach, tweak his swing into something that can sort of work in a shorter sample and then work his way into more pass that way. But yeah, there's no real path to playing time for him outside of a potential injury to a Will Smith. Or to a Freddy Free or to a Shohei Otani.
- [57:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, it helps I guess a little bit that Smith bats right and rushing bats left. But it's not like you need to platoon Will Smith or that you want to limit a younger hitter like rushing to hitting only against righties or something. So that doesn't even help all that much. But hopefully he can hit a bit better than Austin Barnes at least in part time play.
- [57:52]
Fabian Ardaya
Yes, yes. Austin Barnes was pretty entrenched and he, he actually like fully embrace that role. I think by the end he kind of knew like this is what he was on the roster for. He was the longest tenured position player when the Dodgers let him go. But yeah, I think that's one of those things that Dalton rushing like they, when they first brought him up last year, they basically said like we want this essentially be an internship. You are learning on the fly what it's like to handle a big league staff. Not only are you going to do like the normal backup catcher stuff, you're also going to be catching bullpen. So you're like you're going to try to be get familiarized here at the big league level which for a few months like works. But then all of a sudden like Will Smith breaks his hand and the moment got a little bit big for Dalton rushing last year and by the end of the postseason Ben Rortvet who wasn't even in the organization was essentially the backup catcher. I mean he started the first couple playoff games for the Dodgers while Will Smith was events essentially just a bat off the bench while he finished his reaction rehab from his hand. I knew that. Do know the Dodgers want to keep Will Smith off his feet to sort of preserve him over the course of the season. And it wasn't by design, but Will Smith essentially missed all of September with that broken hand and he came back in October and that was as good of an October as he's had in recent memory. And I think the Dodgers kind of know that keeping Will Smith fresh is super important. So yeah, they're as motivated as anyone to have Dalton rushing really kind of click into place place. And if you can turn the two starts a week into maybe three starts a week, all of a sudden that's going to pay dividends for Will Smith as well.
- [59:20]
Meg Riley
I wanted to ask about Freeman because he, he was remarkably consistent with his 2024. I don't know that's exactly what he wants. I feel like we sound really down on some of these guys, which is silly to say about a 4 win player with a 140 WRC plus. But I'm curious sort of what he thought of his season last year. Has he talked about the slight increase in his strike breakouts, decrease in his walk rate? Is this just who Freddie Freeman is as a, you know, 36 year old guy? We're all a little, we're all a little worse when we're 36. And I can say that because I'm pushing 40.
- [59:56]
Ben Lindbergh
But speak for yourself, Mick. It depends in what realm. Maybe we're, we're wiser, we're better in our respective fields, perhaps.
- [60:05]
Meg Riley
Sure. I mean, I would say even diminished. Freddie Freeman better baseball player than I. I am still a very good one. But not the guy, still a great hitter. Yeah. But not the guy who put up a 160 WRC plus in 2023. So talk to us about Freddy's year last year and sort of what you're expecting from him this season.
- [60:23]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, I feel like I said this Mookie Best, I said that I'm say this with Ternandez, like there's a health concern portion of it and there is an age concern portion of it. Like this is like Freddie Freeman did not have a normal offseason last year. He was still playing with a heavy rep wrap on that ankle basically through July, I believe. And like he still hit really well for prolonged stretches. I think his May, he, he was one of the best hitters in baseball in May, but he clearly wasn't moving as well and I think his swing kind of frustrated him. He said his swing really hasn't been in a great place for a couple years until this spring. He feels like he's kind of dialed it back into a good place, I think. Sweet. Sort of like that. Like you have to factor in that it's going to be difficult for a full season to sort of maintain that. It gets more and more difficult every single year. You sort of tack on there. But he is such a good, refined approach and kind of knows what he has to do with his swing usually that I'm kind of banking on him to have closer to a normal year now that his ankle is a little bit better. He was kind of frustrated with his defense last year partially because he wasn't able to move laterally, laterally nearly as well as he wanted to on that ankle. And it's not like he had a lot of lateral movement to sort of give away athleticism wise. I, I'm always going to believe in Freddie Freeman's hitting in terms of just like his pure approach and him being a solid middle of the order bat. And I don't think the Dodgers necessarily need him to be the type of hitter he was when he was getting the MVP votes his first couple years with the Dodgers. But I still definitely expect him to be be at least in the same range where he's been the last couple years, if not a little bit better.
- [62:00]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, he can always consider converting to podcasting, which camouflages the physical decline. It's a little less dependent on reflexes. So maybe we can talk pitching and we can segue from hitting to pitching via Shohei Ohtani, who, as people may have heard, does a bit of both. This is the first time that Ohtani has entered a season with the Dodgers theoretically unfettered, fully healthy, fully operational. Though of course he wasn't pitching in the wbc. So what's the plan for Ohtani, particularly pitching usage wise? Is there any sort of limit? Is there still a ramp up happening? What's that going to look like?
- [62:38]
Fabian Ardaya
It doesn't seem like there's gonna be any sort of limit. It seems like he's gonna be in their opening day rotation no matter what. I think the Dodgers are, I don't want to say pleasantly surprised because I think that it went according to plan when he was at the wbc. But I think they are pleased with where he's at. The fact that he was able to throw four simulated innings in that day before the quarterfinal of the wbc. They're expecting him to get into an outing as a pitcher here before opening day, so they'll get a better idea of that. But basically they said like if he, if he's even 3, 4 innings built up, that's kind of the floor and the fact that he gives you the luxury of an extra pitcher on the roster. The Dodgers are more than happy to sort of still take that start and know that they have other guys built up behind him if they need to. But also they have full trust that he's going to be used as a. Pretty much as a normal starter as soon as like once he's in the games, like there's not going to be any restrictions on he's going to be capped at five innings or whatever. I think they'll be conscious of the fact that he's doing both over the course of the season. And I wouldn't be surprised if there are stretches where he, he gets skipped for a starter too. But they want him to sort of be let go and like free reign to pitch. And I think Sh Ohtani wants like really wants to go wire to wire as a pitcher. And I think he really wants to go VI for a Cy Young. And obviously it's going to be difficult against him, which how many starts and innings he's going to be able to log. But I don't think anyone's doubting, like the talent and his ability as a pitcher to do it.
- [64:07]
Meg Riley
I think given the potential limitations for Ohtani's innings, some of the injuries risks this rotation, despite how many really great pitchers it has in it, it's important to understand who the guys are behind them. So before we talk about any of the entrenched starters, who were the guys who are sort of floating around the high miners who you think will be the first to get the call in the event that one of these guys needs a day off or Snell's ramp up goes slower than they're expecting? Who's sort of next in line?
- [64:36]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, I think they were really hoping that Gavin Stone would be that guy coming into spring. This was a guy who led the Dodgers and innings pitched in 2024. He. He actually took a massive stride forward and then his shoulder obviously gave out on him. He missed a whole last season and he looked really good early in camp. And then he had hiccup with a shoulder shut down. He's still at least a week away from throwing again, so he's sort of out of the picture for at least a little while. But you're looking at guys like a Justin Robleski and a River Ryan as probably the first guys behind that group. That, yeah, if I'm going to pencil in Emmett Sheehan into the opening day rotation, like Robleski is a guy who came up as a starter, got hit a lot, made some mechanical tweaks, got the velocity up and like, has really good stuff from the left side, but never quite put it together as a starter, but gained some confidence as a reliever last year and was one of the guys who pitched in game seven. That's how much he had kind of climbed up Dave Roberts sort of group of trusted relief receivers. And he's come in and looked really good. I think he didn't allow his first run of spring until his last outing where it kind of got away from him a little bit. But he's a guy who, it seems like confidence wise is pounding the zone like crazy. The stuff is really good. That's a guy who at least if you're gonna throw out for a six starter, like, you're gonna feel pretty good about it. I could see the Dodgers maybe carrying him to start the season as kind of a swing man type guy where he can come in and relieve and they don't need a sixth starter until I think game 12 of the season, but that's a guy they could spot in there. And then River Ryan was probably in line to start a playoff game for the Dodgers in 2024 despite having like just three big league starts to his name because one, the state of the Dodgers pitching at that point, but also just how good he looked when he debuted and then he blew out. He's back now. He's looked really good again in camp. He's a little bit on the older side for a prospect, but like at 28 years old he really seems dialed in. The velocity is really good. He's got a really deep mix of pitches. The big thing is he's still coming out the end of his rehab. He's being treated like a normal starter. But I do think the Dodgers probably ideally would like to have him pitching in a controlled environment in the Miners to at least to start the season, to get a little bit more seasoning under his belt. But also know that he is a guy who could very much be in the mix to push for important minutes innings for this team over the course of the season. And then they still have some other depth pieces behind them like Cole Irvin was in camp as a minor league signing, Landon Nak was really effective as an up and down starter a couple years ago and then really wasn't last year and mechanically sort of all fell out of whack and he hasn't had a good camp but he's also in that mix as well.
- [67:17]
Ben Lindbergh
So let's talk about Roki. He has looked sometimes good, sometimes bad this spring, sometimes both in the same out outing. And we talked about him, Bauman blogged about him when he looked quite shaky a couple of weeks back and then he had a good outing on the backfield against White Sox minor leaguers and that was seen as somewhat encouraging. But also how encouraging can it be if you're dominating Double A guys from the White Sox? So what do you think has been the issue with him? Is it purely mechanical? Do they have a bead on what the problem was? Is there confidence that he can correct that and repeat it? And how committed are they they to keeping Roy in the rotation?
- [67:59]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, Roy is going to be in the rotation to start the season. Like they have said that repeatedly. Even after struggles. Questions have been asked a lot of times like is he in danger of losing a spot? And like he really would have to pitch his way out of it. And I think at this stage of spring he won't. I, I do think that the Dodgers sort of see whether he struggles or not, like they're in a position where they can absorb a bunch of bad starts from him and still be fine. They did that last year where he really, really wasn't good as a starter until he went on the shelf. So that's sort of how they're viewing him the short term. But yeah, I do think that Roki thinks it's mechanical. He sort of said that his mechanics have not been in a good place since before his last year in Japan. And he initially tied that to his shoulder, didn't feel right. So he overcompensated in some ways and that like that contributed to the loss in velocity and all of a sudden all the question marks when he sort of became a free agent and was asking all the teams how to get his velocity back. His shoulder, he says, is in a good place now. They were able to make some short term tweaks to his delivery last year that made him effective as a reliever largely to his lower half and sort of his like positioning and how he was able to leverage his legs. And it worked until it started to fade over the course that of that October. I don't know if he was fatigue at the end of the season or the mechanics started to slip back into a bad spot, but the velocity was starting to dip down a little bit. Little bit then and then this spring. Yeah, it obviously he came in with a lot of talk about needing to get that third pitch, but the bigger issue was that he wasn't even able to command the fastball in the zone. And that's something that mechanically he wasn't. He hasn't been in a good place. And he felt like in the outing, I think that Bauman wrote off of that outing against the Guardians was the first inning where he couldn't record an out, but then came back in the second and third innings and went six up, six down, down. And he said in that outing he found something with his shoulder positioning, like his tilt that sort of clicked into place for him and he felt like it was repeatable. And he said he did the same thing against the White Sox in that outing where he did that. And also like something with his core, he didn't really get too much into specifics, but like something with his trunk area, like tweaking it in a way that something kind of clicked and lined up up. And while the fastball command wasn't perfect. It was much improved and he was 98 to 100 according to Dave Roberts. And yeah, I was against a bunch of minor leaguers, but he basically did everything you'd hope he would have done against them, which at least is an encouraging sign. It's not a discouraging sign. We'll see. He starts again tonight, this Tuesday night against the Royals, so we'll see if things can dial into place. But I think what the Dodgers are looking for at this point is as long as the fastball command is competitive, competitive, and he's able to use that forkball off of it, they think he can be an effective guy at least at going a Turner through the order. The third pitch concern is more for him being able to get through three times through the order and really be the dominant kind of starter. But I think the Dodgers are fine with him being a short burst kind of guy who's effective. Like, that would at least mark progress. And then they can keep working with him behind the scenes to work on the third pitch and sort of experience expanding into the kind of guy with huge talent that everyone sort of saw in Japan.
- [71:11]
Meg Riley
And I suppose if it doesn't work out, he can shift back to the bullpen, although that group is very stout. We can talk about Diaz in a little greater detail, but I actually want to start with Tanner Scott because I don't imagine that this was the first season he or the Dodgers were hoping for. Talk to us about sort of his offseason, where he's at right now and what you're expecting from him this year. Can he rebound to his prior form?
- [71:35]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, it seemed like a lot of things kind of came together in a bad way for Tanner Scott, even down to, like, him getting hurt right in the start of the postseason where, like, he probably wasn't going to be used that often, October anyways, but he wasn't even on the roster by the end of it. There is definitely a mechanical component to it where, like, his mechanics weren't right for part of the season. Probably some of that was related to the fact he had some forearm trouble in the middle of the season that he seems like he's passed. And then there came down to, like, the execution and sort of the pressure of it where he kind of said, like, he put a lot of pressure on himself to be the guy after being paid like the guy. And in some ways he kind of got away from himself. He got away from the stuff that made him good, the stuff that made him dominant enough that he went that he struck Out SH Otani four straight times in lds and he was like the guy to get out SH Otani for the Padres in that series. That's what the Dodgers were kind of looking for. The stuff was good, but it was a lot of fastballs, like down the middle with two strikes and or fastballs in really predictable locations or he really wasn't expanding out of the zone. Where this was a guy who for the entirety of his career, especially when he became effective with the Marlins and then with the Padres, was this is a guy who's gonna walk some dudes, but his stuff is so electric that you're gonna chase and you're getting a lot of swing and miss as a result. Last year he was in the zone way more. He got hit a lot because hitters knew not only was he going to be in the zone, he was typically going to try to be in the same spots in the zone because he was trying to be perfect in a lot of ways. I do think that they've spent a lot this offseason sort of talking him up and saying. Saying that as long as the stuff is good, they're going to believe in him. And I think they have a lot of reasons to try to be optimistic because he still has three years left on that deal. But I do think that him being lined up to not necessarily be strictly the 9th inning guy, but be freed up to face the toughest left in opposing lineup in a tight spot, be that sort of guy is going to open him up and also not feeling like he has to be the shutdown closer anymore. He can just sort of be Tanner Scott, the guy who has a high 90s fastball and a wipeout to slider. And you sort of have seen that a little bit this spring. I think overall they're pretty encouraged with
- [73:51]
Ben Lindbergh
what they've seen and undeterred by the issues with the higher paid, bigger name guys in last year's bullpen. Blake trinen, tanner scott, etc. Dodgers doubled down or tripled or quadrupled down and signed probably the best reliever available, Edwin Diaz. I am interested in the hierarchy behind him though, because there is an evolution in the Dodgers dynamic bullpen last year where the good guys, the guys who were supposed to be good, who had the track records kind of combusted and as the season wore on, the better guys, the more reliable options were the lesser known ones than the recent arrivals. It was Justin Ri, it was Rubik's Cube, King, Jack Dreyer, it was Woke King, Will Klein. Like these were the guys Dodgers fans wanted to see in those high leverage moments. And sometimes they were, but very often they still were not because Dave Roberts loved him some Blake Trinen. So tell me how you think this is ordered going into this year. Obviously you hope that Diaz is your closer and your save getter, but the other guys, trine and Scott, etc. Do they essentially have to reprove themselves and earn their high leverage roles or the other guys who stepped up down the stretch and in the playoffs last season, do they have to prove themselves again?
- [75:11]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, it's tricky because a lot of the guys also that they tried to rely on down the stretch were guys who are also starters. Like Justin Orleski is being stretched out to start right now. Yeah, I do think Tanner Scott, they're more willing to obviously give high leverage spots right away. They sort of see him as that key fireman piece. The one guy who was consistent all last season, the one guy who's been consistent pretty much every single year since he arrived in LA is Alex Vessia, who has quietly been like arguably the best left handed reliever in baseball or one of them. One of the first names you sort of think about despite the fact that like his fastball sometimes is 90 miles an hour, sometimes it's 95. But it's just like such a fast like special shape. Like no one gets more induced vertical break on that fastball than Alex Messi and it's such dynamic pitch. So I think those are the three most relevant relievers. Blake Tran, they, they want to believe in him. They do. Like, like Dave Roberts, like you sort of mentioned like, like that every time you sort of bring up like trying to like this is a guy who has accomplished so much, who has been there in the biggest spots. He got off to a better start in camp. It has not gone well from the last couple and I think that like yesterday, some Monday, sort of the day before recording this, that was the first time Dave Roberts kind of like cracked a little bit. Instead of saying like, instead of calling it a blip or an aberration, he said like, I don't really see a guy with a lot of confidence right now. And that's sort of how they talked about him by the end of the last postseason run. This is a guy who obviously has been through a lot and was probably as effective and relied upon as a reliever as they had during that 2024 run when they really relied on their bullpen. Like he obviously had the huge outing where I think it was like 45 plus pitches in game five of the World Series against the Yankees. But he has not been the same guy since April of last season. And they say he's physically in a good spot. Like, they don't seem see it's health thing, even though he missed time last season with a flexer issue. But that's a guy who. It doesn't sound like his roster spot to start the season's in jeopardy, but it does seem like he has shifted his way out of maybe a leverage role to start the season while still knowing that at some point I'm sure he probably will find himself in a tight spot because Dave Roberts likes to trust guys that he's believed in and Blake Trine's always a guy. He's believing.
- [77:23]
Meg Riley
Yeah. I wondered by the end of the postseason, did the front office just say, just pretend he's not down there, pretend he had to go home, pretend that he's busy, he has to go get groceries. Because it did seem after a while like it was maybe not the best choice. You know, we talk so much as an industry about the way that the Dodgers spend, and there's a lot of hand wringing about that. And some of the most public pushback against the team has come in the form of, you know, whether it's other owners or the league or fans saying we have to rein in this spending. We can't let the them get away with this again. But there have been quieter parts of that sort of effort to rein them in. I think that the Dodgers are certainly not the only team, but maybe one of the teams that the league was thinking about as they're contemplating sort of reigning in spending. On the technology side, have you heard anything from the organization about their concerns around that? Are they worried about having to cut off vendors they've come to rely on, or are they kind of steady?
- [78:21]
Fabian Ardaya
It's Eddie I, I think so far. So I haven't heard too much about it, mostly because, like, it, I mean, it's spring training. Everyone's sort of like kind of focusing on that sort of stuff. But I, I do think that the Dodgers will find another edge. Like whether even if they're not spending on the tech in that way, like, they're. That's the thing about a cap that like every time it gets brought up around Dodgers people like, all right, they'll just find another way to sort of spend and find an edge because, like, that's the spot that they're in. They're printing money at this stage, especially since Ohtani arrived, like they have just entered a different Stratosphere where like, they have so much revenue coming in that they'll find another way to do something, even if it's being creative in a way that they didn't think of. And I think obviously it's been kind of known around the Dodgers for a while, for the last couple years, just how much money they're bringing in. But like, I think this offseason was as much as I've seen seen Andrew Friedman essentially say, like, they are behaving differently because of how much money they're spending. Especially like when you're signing a guy like Edwin Diaz after spending huge on relievers last year for Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and like trying and having it completely implode and this being a front office that has never spent money on relievers, it's like, why are you doing it again? Andrew Freeman's basically said like, hey, we are gonna up. Like, this is not a signing that I would have made, made it had our revenues not been in the place that they are in right now. They are in a spot where it's almost funny money that you're able to sort of have a luxury signing for an Edwin Diaz that also makes sense for what they're doing.
- [79:54]
Ben Lindbergh
Sure, everyone will be thrilled to hear that. The Dodgers, finally, the Dodgers unleashed. That's. That's great news for the rest of baseball. So the Dodgers still have one of the top ranked farm systems, if not the best best, seemingly consensus top three at least, which is pretty impressive given how long they've been successful at the big league level, how many prospects they've traded, how long it's been since they had high draft picks, etc. So how have they done that? Is that smart drafting? Is it smart development? Is it some combination of both? And how do they envision that system helping them? Is this mainly just a place they can pluck prospects out if they need to, to add someone at mid season? These are just trade bait. Or do they think, well, the team is actually getting older and some of these guys are in their 30s, in their mid-30s. Maybe we will actually need to work in more players than just Andy Pahis or maybe occasionally Dalton rushing. So do they see this as a replacement for the frontline guys or is it still just sort of fodder to feed this dynasty?
- [81:00]
Fabian Ardaya
It's a little bit of both. I think that they have emphasized a system based on depth for that reason. And I mean, they found ways. Obviously they're not drafting highly. They're not. They don't have as big of international bonus pool as other teams. Like they don't have as big of draft pools to sort of go and use. So they have some limitations. But they've used their continued depth of their system to kind of replenish that depth in sort of like a cycle. And I think that the trades for the trades of Michael Bush and Gavin Lux are kind of good examples of that. Those are both guys that they drafted developed in Lux's case turned into like a big league regular. And in Bush's case they clearly he was ready to be a regular elsewhere. Both were essentially kind of blocked or not really in the team's plans. They were able to flip each into guys who are part of this esteemed outfield crop that they're kind of talking up with Mike Sirota coming in the Gavin Luxury trade and Zier Hope and Jackson Ferris coming in the Michael Bush trade. Like they've been able to to use blocked prospects to flip for younger prospects that they can then develop. And either they become the next blocked prospects or they become trade bait or they become guys who when TE Oscar Hernandez his contract is up or Kyle Tucker opts out, then all of a sudden you possibly have a Z Hope or Josue Deposit Holla. Or Mike Sota or even Eduardo Cantero ready to go to fill that sort of spot. And also like another example that story comes to mind for like the immediate short term help for The Dodgers in 26 is the trade they did last year for Dustin May. The trading way Dustin May to the Red Sox, where clearly Dustin May was not going to be in the Dodgers rotation going forward. They didn't really see him as a bullpen option either. So they started exploring trade trades. The Red Sox got a handful of starts for out of Dustin May, but the Dodgers were able to get a former first rounder in James Tibbs and a guy in Zach Earhard. And both of those guys had amazing camps and looked like guys who could debut at some point this season and possibly project to be regulars at some point, whether it be with the Dodgers or elsewhere. And just being able to generate as many big league caliber players as possible within your system, like that's an easy way whether to either trade them for more guys to sort of supplement the system or guys who can adequately fill in whenever an injury crops up where you can see again Alex Freeland kind of emerge as a guy the first man up or second man up if there is an injury to like a Max Muncie or Miguel Rojas or a Mookie Betts, even like where they Feel like that's a guy who can step in and take down big league at bats.
- [83:42]
Ben Lindbergh
And they lost one of the dwindling number of homegrown guys they still had on the roster in one Clayton Kershaw, who was also a first round pick, something that the Dodgers don't have that much anymore and the last top 10
- [83:55]
Fabian Ardaya
pick that they've had.
- [83:56]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, so it's been a while. That was 20 years ago this summer. And he has been a staple at spring training ever since 2008, the year he made his major league debut. So obviously he hasn't been the ace of the staff in quite some time, but he has been there and he has been a franchise legend and presumably a leader, etc.
- [84:18]
Fabian Ardaya
So.
- [84:18]
Ben Lindbergh
So not having him here for the first time in so long, has that changed the vibe at all? Have people talked at all about any void or just the effect of the absence of Kershaw?
- [84:30]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, that's actually something I'm kind of writing for to open the season. It's just like the idea of there is a culture that's clearly in place with the Dodgers. Some of it comes from Dave Roberts, some of it comes from some of the veterans that they've had. But Max Muncie may say, basically say, like the culture has been in place since Clayton Kershaw's been there. And a lot of ways that it's a lot about maintaining sort of the things that make this room kind of stand out. Like the. The Dodgers have found a way basically to have a bunch of stars in one room where they don't have to. You don't really hear of bickering about roles or ego. And I'm sure a lot of teams can sort of do that or like they are good at managing it behind the scenes. But the Dodgers have done a really good job at this for a really long time as they've cycled in so many different superstars where things could go off the rails, but they don't seem to. For the Dodgers, especially the last couple years in October is where they've been pushed to their limits in different spots. They've been able to sort of hang together. And I think Kershaw deserves a lot of credit for establishing that. But I still think that this spring you've seen that a lot of it has been status quo so far. And a lot of it is because a lot of the, the sweet sort of lessons or the sort of impressions he's left on that group are still very much there, still very much going. And even as the Tenure of like the longest tenure position players or the longest tenure players on the roster have changed a lot, especially in the last 12 months. Like Austin Barnes is gone, Chris Taylor is gone, Clayton Kershaw is gone. Max Muncie's now the longest tenure position player or longest tenure player period for the Dodgers. A lot of the things even from that, those mid-2010s Dodgers teams that Kershaw was really the face of have kind of stuck through even into this area era where guys like Buki Betts and Freddie Freeman and now obviously Shohei Ohtani are more the faces of the team.
- [86:22]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, we've come to our closing question and it's a pretty preposterous one where the Dodgers are concerned, I suppose. But what would constitute a success for the 2026 Dodgers? Can this be team finally break through, get over the hump somehow?
- [86:37]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, I, it's hard, like it's hard to say anything other than three pitting, which is crazy to say. But like this is what the Dodgers have kind of done. Like they found a way to win moments even when they haven't played their best. Like that's how good their roster is and also how, how much this sort of team has found a way to click into something in October, even after a year years of first round exits that kind of ratcheted some tensions going into them signing Shohei Ohtani. Ever since then they've managed to win every single postseason series they played in since Shohei Otani arrived.
- [87:11]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, I guess avoid a salary cap. Is that a goal? I don't know. I suppose Dave Roberts said he supported
- [87:17]
Fabian Ardaya
it, but yeah, it's maybe a short term goal. I don't know if it's an existential goal necessarily for the Dodgers just because like sort of, like I said, they, they, they'll find another way to spend that money and find a way to flip that into success and wins on the field. So I don't know if the cap's going to change that much for them.
- [87:36]
Ben Lindbergh
I think it would make it a little harder, but. But yes, you may be right. They certainly have other institutional advantages. And speaking of their many income streams, I, I guess we will see you out at Uniqlo Field at Dodger Stadium sometime soon.
- [87:50]
Fabian Ardaya
Yes, yes, Uniqlo Field at Dodger Stadium. They're doing tours. They have Japanese tours of Dodger Stadium. They're doing tours at their spring training complex now, public tours of Camelback Ranch. Because there is no stop to the revenue streams for the Dodgers at this point, it seems.
- [88:06]
Ben Lindbergh
I always wonder what the naming rights go for for a field because other ballparks, other fields have done this. Trying to draw the distinction between the field and the stadium. And people are free to ignore the corporate names anyway, unless you're associated with the team or you're a broadcaster or something. But absolutely no one is ever going to say, say, Uniqlo Field at Dodger Stadium except me. I just said it twice. So there you go. Uniqlo, I guess. But I assume that the naming rights, the fees, I'm sure you don't know the answer to this, but they must be considerably lower than if we were renaming Dodger Stadium Uniqlo Stadium, which, to be clear, I'm glad they didn't do.
- [88:43]
Fabian Ardaya
I'd imagine so. But I will say that's pro. The actual field itself might be the only place that doesn't have any corporate sponsorship on it at Dodger St. At this point, especially international corporate corporate sponsorship. So it's good to see the Dodgers found another way to sort of maximize and leverage their current spot because they've
- [88:59]
Ben Lindbergh
been really hurting for cash and Dodgers not hurting for excellent coverage either, whether from Fabian or from your colleague on the beat, Katie Wu, who of course used to cover the Cardinals. We missed her on this season preview series, but that's a dream team of beat writers. So dynamic duo there. And we always enjoy your work, Fabien, and talking to you about this team every spring. Thank you.
- [89:22]
Fabian Ardaya
Yeah, thank you guys.
- [89:23]
Ben Lindbergh
And we'll be back with something completely different. The Colorado Rockies, also an NLS team, I guess, but that's about where the similarities end. Patrick Lyons will talk to us about that.
- [89:43]
Meg Riley
Honey SEM.
- [89:52]
Fabian Ardaya
For free. Three new episodes for us each week, in fact.
- [90:13]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, it's all been building up to this. The culmination of our 15 episode weeks long season preview series. Really those other 29 teams, just a prelude to the preview of the Colorado Rockies. And once again joining us to Talk Rock. Is that a thing? I don't know. Patrick Lyons, who covers the Rockies for Rockies Inside. Welcome, Patrick.
- [90:38]
Patrick Lyons
Thank you for having me back on the annual Dodgers Rockies episode. I look forward to doing this again next year as well.
- [90:43]
Ben Lindbergh
Talk Rocks. Maybe. I don't know. Doesn't rhyme quite as well. I feel like I said the same thing last year. Anyway, the Rockies are not the same team as last year, which is a good thing I think, if you're a Rockies fan, at least when it comes to the front office and the way that this team is running. So the Rockies bottomed out last year. I, I think I hope they bottomed out. Seems probably safe to say. And they bottomed out so hard that it actually convinced the Rockies and Dick Monfort to do something, that something had to change, that they needed new leadership. Even if it was also sort of old leadership. It was new for the Rockies. Take us behind the change. The hiring of Paul Di Podestic what convinced Manfort that something dramatic had to happen here and to what extent has he turned over a new leaf when it comes to how the Rockies are run?
- [91:37]
Patrick Lyons
Yeah, you sort of hit the nail on the head that it their hand got forced very much so because of a historically bad season. And you, you knew the writing was on the wall for, for GM Bill Schmidt. Once Bud Black got fired in May, a guy who was on a perpetual one year year contract. And the same felt really true of GM Bill Schmidt of just coming back, running it back, saying a lot of the same things. We have to get better, our guys got to do better. Thinking that maybe if, if everything goes well and no one ever gets hurt and everyone has a career year, there'll be around 500 or maybe low 70s amount of wins. And that wasn't the reality. But Dick Monfort definitely wanted to hope that was the case. Case and losing 119 games and very nearly setting that modern day record, I think forced him to say all right, well we probably should start to do some things a little bit differently. And it didn't look very good at the start when they had two of their top interviewees basically bow out and not have a ton of interest in linking themselves with the Rockies despite being a general manager. I'd rather be assistant GM where I'm at with the Diamondbacks and, and with the Guardians. So that didn't look very, very good. And then in the end, you know, they, they got a big headline grabber with Paul D. Podesta as their president of baseball operations. A guy who was critical in, in Moneyball. And they essentially said that he was the first guy that they, they had talked to in the process, despite none of that information ever coming out at the time. I think his name probably did get bandied about a little bit because Thad Levine, who was formerly in the Rockies front office in his early years, was great friends and still is great friends with Paul DiPodesta that his name was I think probably always floating around there as an option. And when the sort of traditional route of grabbing the next best young assistant GM to try and revamp this organization, they went with the name that I think was going to grab A lot of headlines and still may end up being a really good choice. And I think he has been so far, but was a little bit outside the box considering that the last decade he was with an equally bad franchise in the Cleveland Browns over in the NFL.
- [94:05]
Meg Riley
Yeah. And GMs are important. They're tone setters. They obviously bring their own expertise, expertise and connections approach to roster building, but they hardly do it alone. So can you talk to us about some of the other folks who the Rockies have brought in this off season and sort of what their mandate is because, you know, however important a role he played in Moneyball, one day, Podesta is not going to do it.
- [94:31]
Patrick Lyons
No, no. They an equally quality pickup that they were able to procure was Josh Burns, who's coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers. So I think in some ways that that got buried, I think in the headlines because if you want to revitalize your organization and change how you do business, what better than taking from the best organization in the game in the Los Angeles Dodgers? So that was a really huge pickup. And then there were still more assistant general managers that were brought in, Tommy Tanis from the New York Mets and the coaching staff, which I imagine we'll get to in a little bit. But you know, grabbing Alon Leishman from the Miami Marlins and having him to be the new pitching coach and really head up this, this new pitching staff that they had on the coaching side of things. So they've, they've really tried to steal from the best, which is not really something that the Rockies have done in the past. They've not really employed that strategy, I think believing that, you know, maybe that they had some kind of recipe from way back in 2007 with homegrown talents or the fact that, well, if you've never been at altitude and you've never managed or played or front office to use a word that doesn't exist, if you've never done those things at altitude, then you'll never know what it's possibly like. So you know what, you're probably not qualified for that role when and I and I don't really think that that's true and that's fair to anyone that maybe hasn't experienced experienced altitude and 52, 80 in the same way that people who have been with the organization. I think just a new fresh set of eyes is what the Rockies were looking to do for the first time in a while. And going back to the original question, I think one of the other big changes for Dick Monford and Having his hand forced was that he needed to step away from the baseball side of things. And he was critical in bringing in Chris Brown Bryant, which has been obviously one of the worst baseball deals that have ever been handed out. And that's. That's been unfortunate how that has played out. But he stepped aside and he's put his son in charge as the team president, and he's been the one that's gone about getting the new sponsor patch late last season. They're one of the last teams to do that and bring in. Bring in both Deepodesta and Josh Burns. So mom for has stepped back a lot. It remains to be seen if he'll reinsert himself into the picture when they start to get a little bit more relevant, but they're so broken right now, and I think he doesn't have enough answers that he actually is turning towards baseball people who do this for a living. And for a guy who's a really good businessman and who isn't a very good baseball man, that has been refreshing to see from this organization. And the fan base has been responding really well to the. That step back from Dick Monford and from the step forward of his son and a lot of other really great baseball minds around the game.
- [97:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. So we just talked to Fabian about whether the Dodgers would be hamstrung at all by MLB standardizing some spending or vendor usage, data sources, et cetera. And that was something that reportedly Dick Monfort pushed for. He wanted to limit that sort of infrastructure spending and really all sorts of spending, but it's easier to implement that than the salary cap. So as he is stepping back, is he loosening the purse strings at all? Is he willing to support the new people not named Monfort, whom he has put in charge by helping bring them up to speed when it comes to technology and investments in not just brainpower, but also things that cost money, things that go beep boop and whirr and whiz. You know, computers, cameras, whatever. The Rockies have been lagging behind some other teams in.
- [98:27]
Patrick Lyons
Yeah, the Rockies did institute a new beep boop department. So that's. That's one of the new big changes.
- [98:32]
Ben Lindbergh
Long overdue.
- [98:33]
Patrick Lyons
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. It's. It's funny because Monfort stepping back, I think, also aligns with his role in the commissioner's office and how he's got the CBA to deal with. And he likes being a model owner for Rob Man, Stanford, and the other, you know, 29 primary owners. So I think that also has something to do with him. Stepping aside. But yeah, this, this off season, Colorado signed three starting pitchers, which previously, and I think Stephanie Epstein was, was the one to point this out, that in the history of the Rockies, they had only ever signed nine starting pitchers to big league deals. And so shelling out, you know, not a ton of money, but still for starting pitching for Michael Lorenz and Tomoyuku Sagano and Jose Quintana, that was really unlike anything that the Rockies had done in the past, because 2017 and 2018, that was a homegrown rotation, and they believe that was the only way that they could build a rotation and it would be too costly otherwise. And under Bill Schmidt, they had often said, well, nobody wants to pitch here at altitude. And it remains to be seen if that was true or they just didn't want to spend the last three years on veteran arms like they have this offseason. But Dick Montfort has always been willing to spend in a good ERA and a good clump of years. They're close to maybe just outside the top 10. And lately they've been closer to 20th in salary. But a lot of money did come off the boat books with Herman Marquez and a few other moves during the trade deadline, Ryan McMahon being one of those. And he has put a lot of that money back into the team. So there is that. How much will that make a difference in trying to avoid 100 losses for the fourth consecutive season? That, of course, remains to be seen.
- [100:24]
Meg Riley
I love the monkey's paw curling, where we all ask for Monfort to be less involved with the Rockies and then become more of everyone else's problem.
- [100:34]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah. Although you'd think if you were the players association, it would be good news that Dick Monford is a ringleader of the owner's efforts. I know it's not new. He's. It's not the first time that he has headed up. But for him to be so influential, I guess it doesn't necessarily correlate the way he runs a baseball team and the way that he runs the financial side or, or cracking down on spending and maybe he's even good at one of those things. But yeah, it doesn't. Doesn't seem to be the most together when it comes to leadership of actual team. So you think that would inspire confidence, if anything?
- [101:07]
Meg Riley
Well, maybe we can talk about some of the guys they brought in and sort of how permanently they hope they're on the roster. Because if you're a team like the Rockies, one way to use 26 man spots is to showcase guys who can net you prospect returns at the deadline if things don't go well. And one way is to cycle them through and see if they're sort of part of the, the next group. And I, I maybe want to start actually away from the arms and on the position player side with some of the free agents and trades they made. So talk to us about sort of the group of trade guys they brought in Jake McCarthy and Edward Julian and then what they saw in Willie Castro to make them so excited.
- [101:49]
Patrick Lyons
Yeah, that is interesting to think that perhaps for the first time in franchise history that they've brought in some guys, guys, some on one year deals only to turn around and trade those guys at the deadline to bring in assets to further improve the potential of their future. Right, bring in prospects. That's not something Colorado has really done in the past because that can make you look like a minor league team for the other 29 franchises. But when you lose over 300 games and three consecutive years compared to combined, you are going to look like a minor league team. So you're damned if you do, damned if you don't at least have a plan to try to build for the future. And that's what will be interesting to see if deep Destin Burns do that. And I think they might be able to convince Monfort that they can do something like that. Willie Castro with a two year deal is seen as sort of a veteran guy and give them some flexibility going into camp whether he starts at third base and someone like Ryan Ritter or Adiel Amador. Tyler Freeman is the second baseman or Edward Julian, as you mentioned, Meg, or Willie Castro kind of becomes the second baseman and then Kyle Karros has a spot over at third base. So I think that created a lot of good competition. It increased their potential for stealing bases, which has been a primary focus this off season because. Because Rockies haven't stolen 100 bases in a little over 10 seasons, I believe. So under, under Bud Black, they just kind of shut down the running game. They also didn't have a ton of opportunities trailing coming from behind. Like there just weren't those situations that you would typically think of stealing bases. So Willie Castro can play a lot of infield positions. He is a switch hitter. He brings in a veteran presence. He, you know, he's two years removed from an all star season. So a little two year deal where you don't have to spend very much, you know, is going to bring up the floor. That's been a phrase that pays for this franchise this offseason. They're trying to bring up the floor and create more competition in spring and just have more depth in general because they've had so many guys make their debut the last couple years. I think it's been 20, 27 different players have made their major league debut in the last two years. So it's been a lot. And Willie Castro, I think, you know, gives them some stability there. And then the trade candidates. Edward Julian can play second and first base, in my opinion, doesn't have enough pop really to stick at first base. But I think that again goes back to some of the competition at first base, where Troy Johnson, who they picked up off of waivers from the moment, he can also play some corner outfield. And TJ Rumfield, who they got in a trade from the Yankees for onhel tvg and he's been fantastic this spring. So he may end up even being the starting first baseman. Another trade candidate as far as Jake McCarthy is concerned, he's been, he's led the team in stolen bases this spring. Warren Shafer likes him out of that leadoff so spot. I think, you know, they could have a sort of leadoff hitter platoon where McCarthy's in there against right handed pitchers and maybe it's Willie Castro against lefties. But McCarthy is a backup center fielder in the waiting. So if Brenton Doyle can get himself back on track after a challenging season on and off the field in 2025, then you might be able to trade Bretton Doyle when his stock is high, which is something that the Rockies don't typically ever do. If you trade Brenton Doyle, you have another center fielder there ready for you in Jake McCarthy. And in the meantime, he can play left field in a very cavernous Coors Field and that left center triangle that exists out there. So defense is going to be a little bit better with McCarthy, Castro and the offense. Again, the floor is going to be a lot better with those three to four trades that they've made this off season.
- [105:46]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, the floor. Floor was quite low last year, so it wouldn't be hard for it to be higher. It was the worst offense in Rockies history, which I guess is not a surprise. It was the worst team in Rockies history. It was one of the worst teams in history. No Rockies qualifier needed. So even though we talk a lot about the Coors Field hangover effect and it's a real thing, they had a.590 ops away from Coors and, well, it's not solely explained by that hangover effect. So in addition to some reinforcements, they will also need some of the holdovers to be better because really just about everyone other than Hunter Goodman was bad man. Bad man.
- [106:26]
Meg Riley
He was Good.
- [106:27]
Ben Lindbergh
Terrible. Yeah, MickeyMoniac was okay, I guess. But beyond that, it was pretty bleak. So someone like Ezekiel Tovar or Brenton Doyle, whom you just mentioned, these were guys who were productive, who were promising in the past. So I know there were injuries, et cetera, cases. Can they get those guys back on track? Where will the improvement come from? The returning players?
- [106:50]
Patrick Lyons
That's been the story of the Rockies these last few years, where Nolan Jones, fourth in NL Rookie of the Year award voting goes. Hits 20, 20, 20 homers, 20 solo bases. And then in 2024 is kind of injured and he's. He doesn't become the next big thing. And they, they trade him at the beginning of spring training last year, and it was supposed to be Tovar and Doyle, as you mentioned, and that didn't happen. And now Goodman breaks out and can he take the next step? The Rockies have really struggled with developing at the big league level and allowing these guys to take their next steps forward. For Bren Doyle, he talked about this on Instagram, but his family had a death, his wife had a miscarriage. And so that was a huge thing for him that he had to go away and obviously deal with and come back and try to play. And that was very difficult. And he handled himself incredibly well. And he did have a spell of two months in the second half where he looked like the Breton Doyle of 2024. And defensively in 2023, where those two years he was the Gold Glove Award winner in center field, doing it as a rookie and as a second year player. So he had those flashes in the second half. Tovar was unfortunately just injured in 2025, but as we've been seeing in the World Baseball Classic for Team Venezuela, there's still tons of potential there. And he's still just 23 years old. And he was given a long term extension to stick around with tons of team options because they do believe that he really can be the next leader of this team. He might not necessarily necessarily reach the same heights as Troy Chulowitzki. I mean, maybe he can, he can touch on what Trevor Story did with a little bit less power but a little bit better defense. He is, he is really the key piece, I think, for this going forward because of that extension, because of how young he is, that if this rebuild does take three to four years, which I think it will, Tovar could still be around, whereas Doyle and Hunter gave Goodman they only have a few more years of club control before they become free agents themselves. So after the 2029 season. So are they even going to be around the next time that the Rockies are going to be good? So this is playing the same tune over and over again. Like, will these guys take that next step forward and become something a little bit more special and become a sort of proverb? Perennial All Star and Mickey Moniac, too, is another guy who was really good at the plate. He's become more of a DH only guy, you know, defensively. He leaves a lot to be desired. He's still just 27 years old, so there's a chance that maybe he takes a step forward and he kind of puts his name out there. As you know, being one of the better outfield hitters offensively in the game, there is that potential. But we'll kind of wait and see what happens with new hitting of coach Brett Pill and manager Warren Shaffer. If they are able to get a little bit more out of these guys than they have the last couple of
- [109:54]
Meg Riley
seasons, I imagine that that makes sort of managing the timelines of the various prospects a little challenging because on the one hand you could see an argument for, you know, in the event of injury or underperformance, wanting to bring up some of the guys in the high minors and seeing what you have, seeing if they're going to be part of that next one Rockies corps. On the other hand, if you think that the competitive window is at least three or four years away, do you want to start the clock on those guys service time and free agency timelines? So who are the guys who, you know, in the event that somebody gets hurt, you think they will turn to this year in the high minors and who might get big league run.
- [110:33]
Patrick Lyons
One of the reasons why they wanted to bring up the floor and bring in more veteran players was because they were calling up guys that just really weren't ready for the majors, but they really had no other options. And so now the depth is a little bit better, it's a little bit more quality. There's a ton of young guys that no longer have rookie eligibility anymore because of their opportunities at the big league level the last two years. But Charlie Condon has definitely impressed this spring, and he's more likely than not going to be a first baseman. For now, we'll see if he can eventually learn to play adequate enough corner outfield. I don't know if he'll be able to go back to third base at all, but Charlie Condon is going to be that, that first guy up TJ Rumfield does seem to be the opening day option. He's not on the 40 man yet, so they'll just have to make a move for that and it'll be Rumfield to start with his Gold Glove caliber defense. He won a minor league Gold Glove a couple years ago when he was with the Yankees. But Condon I think is that guy that they don't want to rush. And despite all the noise he's made at spring training, we know that the numbers do lie in spring. And I think Rockies fans are probably a lot more knowledgeable and much more understanding about spring stats after seeing Zach Veen go off the last three, four years in spring training and see it not translate when, when he actually did get an opportunity or when he was in Triple A. So I think they're going to take their time with Condon, let him get some opportunities in Albuquerque and get every day playing time and then maybe, you know, by June he'll have cut down on the swing and miss, you know, just chasing outside the zone a little bit. Hopefully the power comes along a little bit more. He had a wrist fracture at the beginning of the season last year, so that kept him out the first month of the season. And the home run power wasn't there, not like what we saw when he was at the University of Georgia winning the Golden Spikes Award. But the double power was there. So eventually the power could come along so that he is a 30 home run threat and he'll really need to be if he's going to be staying at first base for the duration of his career. But Condon, I think is very easily that top guy, at least on the position player side. And then on the pitching side, Gabriel Hughes, who was their top Pick back in 2022 at a Gonzaga 10th overall and he had Tommy John surgery in 2023. Last year was his first full season back and despite a 511 era with the AAA Albuquerque Isotopes, that's above average in the Pacific Coast League. So you know he was pretty solid in some shorter action outings as he was building up the innings on his arm. So I think Gabriel Hughes is probably the best pitching prospect that they have that could make an impact this season.
- [113:27]
Ben Lindbergh
You brought up Bryant, who seems to have entered the Steven Strasberg zone where barring a medical miracle, it's hard to expect to see him back on the field and you just sort of hope that his day to day life is unaffected because to hear him talk he is just plagued by pain kind of constantly. So what are the Expectations for him having to be around the team, rehab, etc. He got the contract that he got. He's entitled to that cash as long as he is trying to come back. And I don't think there should be any pressure on him to settle for any other arrangement. But sometimes there does come a point where everyone just accepts that it's not going to happen and they work out some mutually beneficial arrangements, arrangement or in the absence of that, sometimes there's kind of the how do we navigate this with Strasberg, with Anthony Rendone? Are they expected to be around the team? Can we just kind of let them do their thing at home and hopefully improve in some fashion? So what's the expectation for him in terms of what he has to do essentially to continue to ostensibly beef on the past two playing baseball the last
- [114:37]
Patrick Lyons
couple seasons, the expectations were really unclear because he doesn't really hang around the team when he's not rehabbing. And I think this year the expectations unspoken are for him to just not be around the Rockies at all. He came in for his physical, he got checked out and then he head back to Las Vegas to continue with his rehabilitation for debilitating back injury that there really is no coming back from. And any surgery that he would have to fix, it would remove any ability of, of him to come back athletically.
- [115:14]
Ben Lindbergh
Right.
- [115:14]
Patrick Lyons
Like it would probably decrease and, and diminish the pain that he, he feels every day that, that he discusses and, and playing with his kids. And so that would make his day to day life a little bit better. But that would take him even further away from ever returning in any kind of professional manner. So I think with the new regime and you know, coming in and seeing that he has never really been truly a leader. He's been more of a guy that, you know, follow by example or lead by example, I should say, and the guys will follow. That wasn't really, you know, he wasn't one of those more vocal guys when he was with the Cubs and, and you know, they won the World Series and he was the mvp. You know, there were a lot of other guys that were trying to pull him up and trying to get him to take those extra reps and do those extra things. And he just hasn't been that guy in Colorado when he was healthy and when he wasn't. And so, you know, I think the organization wants a refresh and they've done that in the, in the front office. They've done it with the roster in some ways. And I think by keeping him away from the team that can very well, I think, help this next generation feel like this is their team and kind of remove any stench of the previous administration. And unfortunately, I think Chris Bryant is, you know, sort of a victim of that, fairly or unfairly. But I think they would just, rather than not just leave him away. And I don't, I don't know what they're going to do with the contract if they there's anything they can do. There's still three more years left, so it'll be interesting to see if they are able to navigate something or if he can find a magical cure that could bring him back to the playing field and suit up for the Las Vegas Athletics in his hometown. You know, in time for 2028.
- [117:04]
Meg Riley
Maybe we can talk about some of the pitching now. And I want to start with a young guy who was a first rounder and had what we might describe as a, as a rough introduction to the major leagues and then ended the season on the injured list. That's Chase Dollander. First of all, how has he looked in spring? Is he fully healthy and sort of what is this new regime trying to emphasize with him from a developmental perspective?
- [117:29]
Patrick Lyons
Chase did not fill up the zone, as the Rockies like to say, last year and we talk plenty about splits for, for hitters, but for pitchers, he had a nine plus ERA at Coors Field. But on the road he was around 35 last year as a rookie after having only one full season in the minors after being drafted in 2023. So he is a guy that I think maybe got an unfair rap as being part of that group of players who debuted last year but, but really weren't ready because he looked ready in spring training last year and he has shown those flashes again this year because of the three veterans that came in from free agency. It remains to be seen if he is going to win that number five starter role with Antonio Cinzatella still kind of kicking around a little bit. And then Ryan Feltner, who is, is back and healthy after not being healthy in 2025 and looking fantastic in the second half of 2024. But overall Dolender has been, you know, fine in his four starts. He does take the ball on Tuesday here in Scottsdale. So you know, he has been been fine. He, he hasn't missed a ton of bats. He's, he's reduced his, his walks, which has been a big part for him. The control has been questionable. He's hit three bats matters. So you know, he's still, I think figuring a lot of things out and he was challenged a lot last year at AAA and at the majors after really coasting his, his first full season at Hiace, Spokane and even at Double A in Hartford. So I think this new coaching staff and bringing in all the veterans and more big leaguers for, for him to pick the brains of like, I think all of those things. Things can be really helpful for him because, you know, maybe he was doing a little bit too much, but the fastball is there and you know, when he's on the road, he's. He's able to look like the guy that they selected ninth overall out of Tennessee. A guy that, you know, going into that spring, you know, I think a lot of people thought, you know, maybe he could be, you know, one, one. And unfortunately he, he messed with his, his slider. His. His slider and you know, wasn't very good that year for the Voles and ended up falling to the Rockies where he has been really solid since then. But I think he can unlock something a little bit more and be probably like a number two starter that a lot of people around the game would see. I think it's hard to be a true ace for a long period of time in Colorado for various reasons, but I think you can, you can certainly touch on it for a year or more as Kyle Freeland has shown over the duration of his career.
- [120:20]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, we talked last spring, I think when we had you on about some of the continuity despite all the pitching issues and challenges. Just some of the starters who've been around forever and Marquez is with the Padres now, but Antonio Citella is still around and Freeland I think will always be there. It's like some sort of the shining situation. You look at the old, old faded photo and Kyle Freeland is there somehow before the Rockies even existed. I know he's a local kid, so why not?
- [120:47]
Meg Riley
But you've always been the first starter.
- [120:50]
Ben Lindbergh
Exactly. I wanted to lead with this question, but I restrained myself until we transitioned to the pitching. But I know it's foremost on the minds of many effectively Wild listeners. Will John Brebia be making the major league roster?
- [121:03]
Patrick Lyons
I think so. I think so. Yeah. He's been outstanding standing this spring.
- [121:08]
Meg Riley
He is.
- [121:09]
Ben Lindbergh
When is he not?
- [121:10]
Patrick Lyons
Was he. Did you take him in your non roster draft?
- [121:13]
Ben Lindbergh
Is that why he was selected? But I think. Did someone else take him before me? I. I think possibly.
- [121:20]
Meg Riley
I don't remember.
- [121:21]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, I'll look it up quickly, but. But he's a favorite of mine. Former effectively wild guest and just. Yeah, he was. He was stolen. He was snatched from me by John Breby, by Ben Clemens in the second round of the effectively wild minor league free agent draft. So even though Ben has something riding on Brebia getting big league batters faced, I'm still pulling for that to happen.
- [121:46]
Patrick Lyons
Yeah, he had given up like a hit in his first three or four outings of the spring, which, you know, how much does that mean? But he is a classic Rockies pickup off the scrap heap of somebody that is undervalued and, you know, can fit right in to the bullpen. Like, they've, they've done it pretty consistently no matter who's in charge the last couple years, from Jimmy Herget, who had like one of the top 10 greatest relieving seasons in Rockies history, getting him off off the scrap heap. And, you know, Pierce Johnson, Brett Suter, like, there's, there's a long list of guys and I think John Brown, Brebia is going to be that guy where, you know, there, there's not a ton of young relievers that still have options that I think are going to get sent down to Albuquerque, but someone's going to get hurt somewhere along the way. And Brevia has certainly proved that he deserves a place in the bullpen. And if he ends up opting out because he's not placed on the opening day roster, I think somebody else would very well give him an opportunity. So, yes, EW listeners, John Barabia will, will be in the majors this year.
- [122:52]
Ben Lindbergh
Again, I resent the reference to him as scrap. But you know what? One team's scrap, another team's treasure. Maybe that'll turn out to be the case for the Rockies. So the other, perhaps in some quarters, higher profile additions to the pitching staff you identified earlier. Take us through the new starters starting with team Italy. WBC hero Michael Lorenzen.
- [123:14]
Patrick Lyons
Yeah, Michael Lorenzen is, I don't want to say arguably the biggest and highest profile signing of the all season because for me, as just a baseball nerd and just likes Japanese players like Tomoyuki Sagano is the first Japanese player for the Rockies since Kazmatsu in 2007, and they went to the World Series that year. So you connect the dots as to what's going to happen this year for Colorado. So I'm excited to spend at least the first three months with Sagano and his translator and talking about the MPB and all those good things. But Michael Lorenzen was a really good pickup for the Rockies, not even just from the perspective of a veteran arm. For one year, there's an option for next year as well. But he's a tinkerer. He likes to tinker, and he likes to do a lot of things and throw some different arm slots. And he has really embraced this idea that, like, yeah, I wanted to come to Coors Field, like, I want to play in Denver and to test myself and to learn different things. And so Rockies love a player that can also be a coach. Like, that's. That's what was one of the appeals of Daniel Bard early on. So they. They love those kind of guys. And so Michael Lorenzen could be really important for this team going forward. Like, you. You talked with enough ballplayers. There's always somebody that, when they were a rookie, you know, showed them the way and taught them them so many different things. And like Ian Desmond and Daniel Murphy, for better or worse, were that for a lot of the young guys in the Rockies clubhouse. And I think Lorenzen has that opportunity with this entire organization with the way, you know, he goes about things and, you know, he has his own business, you know, looking at all kinds of different pitching metrics. And, you know, he is. He's going to fit in really well in the lab and helping a lot of the young guys in the bullpen and a lot of the young starters that go to AA and AAA this year. So, yeah, Lorenzen was definitely a big coup for a. A makeover of the entire organization, not just for the veteran innings that he is going to bring every five days, but what he's going to be doing in those four off days, talking with the rest of the bullpen, the rotation, and the pitching staff.
- [125:23]
Meg Riley
Well, maybe we can talk a bit more about that bullpen, because it's not just Brebia. He's not the only new addition. There are some new faces down there, although they are still anchored by Victor Vodnik. So talk to us about that relief group and sort of how these guys are going to be sequenced going into
- [125:38]
Patrick Lyons
the year that I'm still very curious about. I'm not sure who is going to be the closer to start the year. Last year, they. They had three closers at different times. I mean, even Tyler Kinley was closing games at one point. It started with Seth Halverson, and then they couldn't win for the rest of the month of April, so there weren't a ton of opportunities then. Zach Agnes.
- [126:01]
Ben Lindbergh
I was going to say 43 wins. Closer is not the highest priority necessarily.
- [126:05]
Patrick Lyons
No. Yeah. I think it's been three consecutive years where there hasn't been anyone that has saved 15 games or, or more. And the only two other times that it's happened has been in shortened seasons. So like, they've, they've lacked that guy in the bullpen. But Vodnik, Victor Vodnik has that potential if, if he can stay healthy enough. Same thing with Seth Halvorson, who got hurt last year and has really had some issues with finding command this year. So I'm hoping that his elbow is, is all right. But Zach Agnos came up, he debuted and he had two saves before he had two weeks of service time. So he's another one of those potential closer candidates. And it's only spring training and the Rockies are talking about trying to do some off the wall things with their pitching. And nothing's off the table where we're willing to do anything. And Zach Agnos has opened some games, which sometimes relievers do in spring training, you know, just to see the best three guys in the opposing team's lineup. But there has been some conversation that perhaps, you know, Agnos will be a guy that they use as an opener. I know teams in general have kind of gone away from that for whatever reason. I think just, just because Major League Baseball as a whole really wants to bring some prestige back to starting pitchers. So they haven't done that. But maybe the Rockies do try that. I'm curious if they are going to try something extreme and what that will look like because they've talked about how they're discussing extreme things and that they're willing to do extreme things if it ends up working out. Is that going to be just a lot of talk like it's been in years past, or will something happen actually come to fruition on that? We'll just have to wait and see.
- [127:44]
Ben Lindbergh
Have you gotten any sense of whether the new administration will encourage any sort of different pitching philosophy? Of course. There was so much made of, well, maybe this will actually be an attractive job to teams because, oh, the challenge of Coors Field and everything. And maybe it was. I know Depesta said as much. Perhaps that didn't outweigh the downsides in some other executives minds. But do they think. Not that they've cracked the code necessarily. And if they did, they might not want to broadcast what the code is. But have they said anything along the lines of doing anything differently to combat the hangover effect or to have some sort of cohesive pitching approach?
- [128:25]
Patrick Lyons
No, they. They have not revealed any of their secrets. You know, one of the things that has, has kicked around in a lot of the, the fan forum Forums has been something that they did back in 2012 where they like piggybacked starters where they went with like six starters and each guy would go three innings and that was pretty radical at the time. Didn't work out. They. They only tried it for a short period of time. I doubt they'll go back to something like that. So you know, they have enough depth I think now that that something like that could work. But it really does remain to be seen what kind of exception experiments they might do last year with the Marlins new pitching coach alone Leishman, who is an assistant pitching coach with. With the Marlins, you know they, they called pitches from the dugout and so
- [129:09]
Ben Lindbergh
yes, I wanted to ask you whether they're going to implement that.
- [129:13]
Patrick Lyons
Yeah, they very well could. Hunter Goodman does a good job behind the plate. You know he is. Is he a lot. He's a lot more bat than he is glove. Brett Sullivan is. Is someone that probably going to make the the open opening day roster over Braxton Fulford. He's, you know, he can call a good game. He's been doing that for, for quite a while. So I don't really know what kind of extreme things that they are going to employ the last couple years. You know, the bullpen has been one of their, their strengths and I think one of the reason for that is they were able to cycle through guys a little bit more easily because they had so many young players who had options where they could shuffle them in and out, you know, fairly easily and keep them fresh and you know, and that worked for prolonged periods of time. Now, you know, a lot of those guys don't have those options anymore. And those relievers that do have options, they're going to be counted on for a lot of key innings. So that might not really play to their strategy this time around. So I hate to not bring the goods here on what they plan on doing, but we'll see. Might be openers. Maybe it's going to be more position players pitching and punting early on games. I don't know. We'll see.
- [130:25]
Meg Riley
And of course the guy who's going to be conducting that orchestra of relievers and coaches and position players is Warren Shaffer, who continuing the trend of young managers. He's 40. I don't know how I feel about that. But what did they see in Schaefer? What are they excited about as they sort of enter into this new era?
- [130:44]
Patrick Lyons
Warren Shaffer had long been kind of a rising star within the organization. You know, he was a player coming up. You Know, topped out at aaa, but every opportunity he got on the coaching side of things, from short season ball all the way up to aaa, when he was the manager of the, the Albuquerque Isotopes, he really just looked like he was the next guy that was going to be up once Bud Black eventually stepped aside and then, you know, Schaefer was brought in as an infield instructor and third base coach. And you know, when some people started losing their jobs last year, first Hensley Mullens as the hitting coach and then Bud Black, you know, wasn't clear if maybe Clint Hurdle was going to get, you know, that nod, but it ended up going to Warren Shaffer as, you know, a young guy that, that is hungry, you know, that is incredibly competitive. Not to say that anyone that lost their job wasn't, but, you know, he is a guy that, that's come up through the system. So it's one of their guys, it's one of their, their homegrown dudes, which the Rockies definitely like. And you know, he knows this system and he knows these players and he is someone that when you go back and look at that game that the Rockies won last year, year 17 to 16, where they were down nine nothing in the first inning against the Pirates like that has Warren Shaffer written, you know, all over the, the team where we're not going to give up, we're going to continue to fight. You know, obviously at that point he was fighting to, to remove the interim tag from his title because didn't know if he was going to get another opportunity ever again, if he was going to be the next Beau Porter. But you know, here he is that manager and he checks off a lot of the right boxes. And I think even in a worst case scenario of the Rockies are really bad again this year and they lose 110 games, the new administration can unfortunately use Warren Shaffer as a scapegoat and throw him under the bus and say, ah, you know, maybe we need to go a different direction. We need to bring in one of our guys or, you know, our manager that, that we've, you know, vetted. That's not to say that Schaefer wasn't vetted, but he is kind of a vestige of the previous administration and Bill Schmidt because he was there when Deep Desta and Burns arrived. So no, Schaefer is, I think he's the right transitional manager for what they need right now. And still that's not to say that he doesn't become the next Brandon Hyde, where sure, he was there for a couple 100 lost seasons. But then he also was able to elevate the team to that next level where they were a contender, where they were able to go to the postseason that still might be three, four years away. But I think Schaefer could still continue to be the manager of this team at that point if a lot of the things that he's been trying to do at camp this year and really go about the Rockies business in a different way and be having a critical eye and really provide feedback to players like they haven't really had the the last couple years and just really going through the motions. It's been different under Warren Shaffer, and so I think he's the right guy for this job and for potentially turning around the fate of the franchise in the next couple seasons.
- [134:00]
Ben Lindbergh
Just want to share a little tidbit that I learned while preparing for this segment. Viktor Vodnik's grandfather belonged to what he himself called an outlaw motorcycle gang for 34 years. I just thought that was kind of interesting. I was reading about Viktor Vodnik because I always thought he sort of sounded like the name of a rocket villain, which is probably not accurate. I think Vodnik, it might sound like vodka, but it's a Slavic sort of name. And also his mother was born in Mexico City and he played in the WBC for the Mexican team. But yeah, he comes from a line of outlaw motorcycle gangsters evidently, so seems like he would make a good closer. Perhaps he's got the closer mentality if and when the Rockies ever hand him a lead. So we do have to ask you the same question that we asked Fabian, though. I and I imagine the answer might be a little bit different from his answer. What would constitute success for the Colorado Rockies in 2026?
- [135:00]
Patrick Lyons
Oh boy. Well, I think, I think success really is going to be about wins and losses more this year than any players stepping up. I think that's an obvious one. Like, the Rockies just haven't had a superstar since they traded one away to the St. Louis Cardinals, so that's something that they do need and that's something that they can eventually develop. And maybe they have one in Charlie Condon, maybe they have one in a couple years in Ethan Holiday. But for right now, I think they just need to change the look, the aesthetics of the Rockies as being this perennial 100 loss team. And I think even if they win 17 more games than they did last year, they're still going to lose 102 games. And so I think it's going to be really Hard for them to not lose 100 games. But if they can do that, that's. That's a big boost in the win column. That's. That's 20 wins that they turn around and maybe they can look at themselves and say, hey, maybe we can be like the Royals, who went from a 100 loss team to a playoff club. Now, they won't have done that if they just win 63 games, but they might be able to say, you know what, we might be able to make another jump next year. We might be able to convince some free agents of real value to come here. So I think if they can go 63 and 99, that would be a major success, because there's not a ton of teams that lost that many games that have turned around and won 20 more games. And if everyone is healthy and everyone, you know, does play to, I don't know, their 80th percentile, even 70th, then yeah, I think that could happen. I think, because the way Warren Shaffer is going to go about this season and really not. Not giving in at all and, and trying to have his guys grind out every. At that, even late in games, you know, I think they'll end up winning more games than what their Pythag record suggests, because, you know, they're. He's going to get more right from. From what the roster is. The, the sum of their parts, you know, is. Is they're going to be less than that. I'm. I'm losing myself in the metaphor here. I'm operating on zero hours of sleep with my flight out to Scottsdale. So I'm on the struggle bus, which is probably the mode of transportation for this franchise right now. So I think 63 wins would be huge success.
- [137:28]
Ben Lindbergh
Yeah, it's not a great situation when you could be simultaneously maybe the most improved team wins wise and also the worst team still wins wise. But the Rockies do find themselves in that. In that spot. So. Yeah, because unlike even, say, the White Sox a couple years ago, or even last year for that matter, it's hard to look under the hood and say, oh, they were just unlucky and they were actually better than that. They were legitimately that bad. I mean, I know maybe the run differential was sort of inflated because, of course, to some extent, but it was still just historically terrible and unprecedented in modern baseball. Anyway. I'm not telling you anything you don't know, Patrick. You. You watched it and covered it all. I would suggest that maybe what would constitute success for these Rockies, though? I. I suppose we won't know whether they Satisfy this until 2027 is for them and and you not to be the closer the victor Vodnik of the team preview series next year. Fate from from Fabian yes, if we if we don't have Dodgers and Rockies to lead off next year, if it's someone other than Rockies going last because someone else has a worse person projection, that would be a win in a way. So that's something to potentially look forward to. Another thing to look forward to is Patrick's coverage of the Rockies, which you can find in a number of places. He writes for Just baseball@just baseball.com and he covers the Rockies at Rockies Insider, which is a multimedia effort. It's a substack, it's a podcast, it's a YouTube channel. We will link to them all. Thank you very much Patrick.
- [139:08]
Patrick Lyons
Thank you for having me. Appreciate it guys.
- [139:10]
Ben Lindbergh
Well, exciting stuff in the WBC final. Venezuela tops Team USA three to two despite some late heroics by Bryce Harper. Eugenio Suarez supplied some heroics too. Great game. Great tournament. Congrats to Venezuela, both the baseball team and the country, frankly. Well played. So we will hit the highs, we will hit the lows. More managing questions, much to discuss and we will be back to break it all down soon. In the meantime, you can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectively wild as have the following five listeners who have already signed up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad free and get themselves access to some perks. Chris Daniels, Sean Hughes, Chris Bonner, Kara Hooper and Tommy Breeze. Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to the Effectively Wild Discovery Discord Group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes, playoff live streams, prioritized email answers, shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch and ad free fangraphs memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings@patreon.com effectivelywild if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangrafts.com youm can rate, review and subscribe. Subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group@facebook.com group effectivelywild. You can find the effectively wild subreddit at r effectivelywild and you can check the show notes in the podcast, posted fan graphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back to put a bow on the WBC soon. Talk to you then.
- [140:49]
Patrick Lyons
Baseball is a simulation.
- [140:52]
Meg Riley
It's all just one big math equation.
- [140:56]
Patrick Lyons
Hear all about these stats we've compiled Cause you listen to Effectively Wild with Ben Lindbergh and Mac Rowley Come for the ball.
- [141:10]
Ben Lindbergh
Banter's free.
- [141:12]
Patrick Lyons
Baseball is the same Simulations all just one big conversation. Effectively Wild.