Effectively Wild Episode 2455: The 2026 Preseason Predictions Game

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Date: March 20, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)
Guests: Michael Bauman and Chris Hannell (FanGraphs), Ben Bauman

Episode Overview

This lively episode of Effectively Wild celebrates the fourth annual Preseason Predictions Game, where the hosts and guests share their boldest predictions for the 2026 MLB season. Embracing the tradition of creative, often irreverent statistical speculation, the show opens with playful banter, an offbeat musical number, and plenty of inside jokes before diving deep into the main event: each panelist unveils 10 unpredictable, trackable, and delightfully weird baseball predictions, then invites listeners to rate the boldness of each via an interactive ballot.

Along with baseball futures, the episode is rich with side discussions on espresso machine memorabilia, player neck sizes, archive-of-our-own (“AO3”) fan fiction potential, the Pirates’ homegrown pitching hopes, and the oddities of baseball fandom and stats culture.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Opening Banter and Show Vibe

• The episode kicks off with a satirical musical performance riffing on steamy, baseball-themed lyrics, much laughter, and the running “how can you not be horny about baseball?” inside joke.
  • Memorable Quote:
    “How can you not be horny about baseball?” – Ben Bauman (00:09)
• Regular guests and special guests trade jabs and warm introductions, setting a familiar, irreverent tone.

2. Panel Introductions and Pre-Games

• Guests: Michael Bauman, Ben Bauman (Fangraphs), and Chris Hannell (statistician and “effectively wild scorekeeper”) join regulars.
• Pre-predictions game:
  • Michael Bauman hosts a “College Baseball Player or F1 Support Series Driver” name game, underscoring Effectively Wild’s love of baseball-adjacent nerdery and weird trivia.
  • Ben Clemens struggles to parse the real from the fake, with lots of good-natured ribbing.
  • Notable Exchange:
    “Colton Herta...college baseball or F1?”
    – “He is the driver for the High Tech Formula 2 team...”
    (06:09)

3. Predictions Game Structure

• Chris Hannell explains the rules (20:00):
  • Each of the four panelists makes 10 predictions.
  • Listeners vote at ewstats.com on how likely each is to happen.
  • The less likely predictions are judged, the more points panelists can win.
  • Each panelist can use a “doubt card” on a prediction from another, betting against it for extra points.

Main Event: The 2026 Preseason Predictions Game

Below is a representative sample of how the predictions game unfolds, emphasizing unique or bold predictions, panelist banter, and recurring themes.

Sample Predictions and Discussion Highlights

Ben Lindbergh

• Challenge System Incites Benches-Clearing Incident (22:20)
  “The challenge system will incite a bench clearing at some point this season... sparked by a challenge or the way a player challenges.”
  Clarifies that his criteria include bench clearing, not necessarily involving the bullpens, and relies on the ‘know it when you see it’ rule.

• Shohei Ohtani Wins NL Cy Young But Not MVP (34:18)
  “Otani will win the National League Cy Young Award... but not MVP.”
  Explores odd injury and voter fatigue scenarios for the rare possibility Otani’s pitching would outshine his hitting, drawing on past medical consult and listener questions for plausibility.

• Four AL East Teams Make Playoffs (42:09)
  “Four American League East teams will make the playoffs. This has never happened.”
  Acknowledges it's become possible since expanded playoffs, but remains rare.

• Pirates’ Homegrown Pitching Milestone (91:26)
  “The Pittsburgh Pirates amass the most WAR by starting pitchers 30 or younger who never pitched previously for another team—in over half a century.”
  Enumerates potential contributors (Skenes, Keller, Ashcraft, Jones, etc.), dreams on a new, homegrown Pittsburgh rotation, and references sabermetric research support.

Michael Bauman

• Height Bimodality in NL Cy Young Voting (25:26)
  “Every NL Cy Young vote getter will be listed at 6’6” or taller, or at 6’0” or shorter...”
  Inspired by recent seasons’ trends; expects a visual ‘tall guy next to a short guy’ on the awards podium.

• AO3 Fanfic Mania: Tony Vitello & Kyle Shanahan (60:31)
  “Archive of our Own will have at least 10 entries of erotic fan fiction about Giants manager Tony Vitello, or at least one about him and Kyle Shanahan.”
  Unleashes the panel’s best puns, concern for rule manipulation, and references to the idiosyncratic Effectively Wild fandom.

  • “All it would take is for one listener to write a Vitanahan entry, and you win.” (65:37)

• A’s Spend Extravaganza (86:21)
  “The A’s will give out at least $100 million more in contract extensions this season, before we reconvene.”
  Speculates on possible contract targets and echoes the front office’s changing approach.

• Physical Confrontation with MLB Official (96:32)
  “Someone will actually physically assault one of Rob Manfred’s clubhouse emissaries—any physical confrontation between a player and one of Rob Man’s mandarins.”
  Defines broad assault, refers to recent dust-ups, and sparks concern about tracking/reporting.

Ben Bauman

• Cleveland Guardians Batters Troll Cal Raleigh (27:01)
  “Six or more Cleveland Guardians batters will extend their hand, arm or bat towards Cal Raleigh, in a way that invites Cal to touch it, on Opening Day.”
  Inspired by past poking fun at Cal Raleigh’s handshake, predicts playful trolling.

• Kyle Teal WAR Without PAs (39:26)
  “Kyle Teal will lead White Sox hitters in WAR despite not finishing in the top five for PAs among those hitters.”

• Chase Burns Top 5 in Cy Young Voting (48:06)
  “Chase Burns will finish in the top 5 for NL Cy Young voting—even though he’s never pitched at that level.”

• Super-Multi-Franchise Misses Playoffs (106:01)
  “The Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Sacramento A’s, and Cardinals all miss the playoffs in 2026.”

Meg Rowley

• Boldest Debut: Connor Griffin Surpasses Mike Trout’s Rookie WAR (30:00)
  “Connor Griffin will break Mike Trout’s rookie F WAR total of 10.1. The neck is so big. It’s just an enormous neck...”
  A mix of informed scouting (in-person at the combine) and comic awe at Griffin’s physical traits. Banter about “freak neck” lore spreads through the segment.

• AL HR Race: Judge/Raleigh Not #1 (40:52)
  “Neither Aaron Judge nor Cal Raleigh will lead the AL in home runs...”

• Corbin Carroll Joins 20-20-20-20 Club (49:51)
  “Corbin Carroll becomes the fifth MLB player in history with 20+ doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers, and 20 steals in a season.”

• Michael Garcia Surpasses Bobby Witt Jr. in WAR (69:53)
  “Michael Garcia will lead the Royals in WAR. Take that!”

Notable Quotes & Humorous Exchanges

• “This episode is so weird.” – Meg Rowley (115:37)
• "Did you say Pegasus or AO3?” – Meg Rowley (71:31), in reference to Royals’ access to fanfic sites at team facilities
• “If a Jack Caglion Jersey is going for 8,000, then I’m probably taking the over on the espresso machine, which sounds preposterous.” – Ben Clemens (17:54)
• “I like that genre of prediction where it’s someone was signed to replace someone else and everyone assumes the higher-profile, sexier acquisition will be better... It’s like Meg’s Isaac Paredes will be better than Kyle Tucker prediction from last year, which didn’t quite work out but looked like it might for a little while.” – Ben Clemens (38:02)

Additional Segments and Running Gags

• Espresso Machine Auction Shtick:

  • Prolonged riff about Team Italy’s WBC dugout espresso machine being auctioned for charity, and whether it should instead be displayed in the Baseball Hall of Fame or the Italian consulate. Much playful snobbery about Nespresso’s quality and speculation on where the auction will end.
  • “Can’t we do better than Nespresso?” – Meg Rowley (12:43)
  • “Erect this coffee machine at Columbus Circle, just high on a pedestal where you could barely see it from the ground…” – Ben Clemens (10:56)

• AO3 Fan Fiction Prediction:

  • Bauman’s prediction launches a deep dive on baseball RPF and the quirks of team managers and the fanfic economy, providing much laughter.
  • "Vitanahan" as the portmanteau for Tony Vitello/Kyle Shanahan slash fiction (61:36)

• Listener Participation Plug:

  • Repeated reminders to vote at ewstats.com, with a leaderboard and special swag for the top predictors. (120:10)
  • “First place will earn free swag from the Effectively Wild online store. So get over there, make your prognostications…” – Chris Hannell (120:23)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening jokes and music: 00:00–02:16
• Guest Introductions and Pre-Prediction Trivia Game: 02:16–11:05
• Espresso Machine Auction Discussion: 10:07–18:24
• Explanation of the 2026 Preseason Predictions Game Rules: 19:52–22:15
• Round 1 of Predictions (main game begins): 22:20–34:03
• Meg Rowley’s neck/effectively wild scouting riff: 30:10–32:10
• AO3 Fan Fiction Prediction Segment: 60:31–67:16
• Listener participation and sign-off, voting instructions: 120:07–123:02
• Polymarket/MLB partnership brief: 123:02–125:54
• Patreon roll and credits: 126:01–end

Listener Instructions & Interactive Component

• Vote at ewstats.com: Listeners are urged to rate each prediction’s likelihood (vote must be cast before “real opening day”).
• Purpose: Determines point values for each panelist; the bolder (less likely) a prediction is judged, the greater the reward if correct.

Episode Tone, Spirit, and Flow

• Characteristically loose, irreverent, and nerdy tone with much laughter, personal asides, and inside jokes.
• The panel balances earnest statistical curiosity and competition with an appreciation for baseball’s absurd side and Effectively Wild’s own peculiar community.
• Key themes include not taking themselves (or baseball) too seriously, giving the audience a participatory role, and celebrating both the plausible and the ridiculous in baseball forecasting.

Concluding Notes

The episode stands as a testament to Effectively Wild's fusion of rigorous analysis, stathead fandom, and eccentric humor. It’s accessible for devotees and new listeners alike, drawing the audience into its predictions game and culture of friendly statistical competition, while never losing sight of the fun in prognosticating baseball’s future.

“Score them accordingly, however likely you think they actually are to occur.” – Ben Lindbergh (122:39)

For more, including the complete list of predictions, see the show notes and vote at ewstats.com!