Effectively Wild Episode 2455: The 2026 Preseason Predictions Game

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2455: The 2026 Preseason Predictions Game

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Date: March 20, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)
Guests: Michael Bauman and Chris Hannell (FanGraphs), Ben Bauman

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Episode Overview

This lively episode of Effectively Wild celebrates the fourth annual Preseason Predictions Game, where the hosts and guests share their boldest predictions for the 2026 MLB season. Embracing the tradition of creative, often irreverent statistical speculation, the show opens with playful banter, an offbeat musical number, and plenty of inside jokes before diving deep into the main event: each panelist unveils 10 unpredictable, trackable, and delightfully weird baseball predictions, then invites listeners to rate the boldness of each via an interactive ballot.

Along with baseball futures, the episode is rich with side discussions on espresso machine memorabilia, player neck sizes, archive-of-our-own (“AO3”) fan fiction potential, the Pirates’ homegrown pitching hopes, and the oddities of baseball fandom and stats culture.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Opening Banter and Show Vibe

• The episode kicks off with a satirical musical performance riffing on steamy, baseball-themed lyrics, much laughter, and the running “how can you not be horny about baseball?” inside joke.
  • Memorable Quote:
    “How can you not be horny about baseball?” – Ben Bauman (00:09)
• Regular guests and special guests trade jabs and warm introductions, setting a familiar, irreverent tone.

2. Panel Introductions and Pre-Games

• Guests: Michael Bauman, Ben Bauman (Fangraphs), and Chris Hannell (statistician and “effectively wild scorekeeper”) join regulars.
• Pre-predictions game:
  • Michael Bauman hosts a “College Baseball Player or F1 Support Series Driver” name game, underscoring Effectively Wild’s love of baseball-adjacent nerdery and weird trivia.
  • Ben Clemens struggles to parse the real from the fake, with lots of good-natured ribbing.
  • Notable Exchange:
    “Colton Herta...college baseball or F1?”
    – “He is the driver for the High Tech Formula 2 team...”
    (06:09)

3. Predictions Game Structure

• Chris Hannell explains the rules (20:00):
  • Each of the four panelists makes 10 predictions.
  • Listeners vote at ewstats.com on how likely each is to happen.
  • The less likely predictions are judged, the more points panelists can win.
  • Each panelist can use a “doubt card” on a prediction from another, betting against it for extra points.

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Main Event: The 2026 Preseason Predictions Game

Below is a representative sample of how the predictions game unfolds, emphasizing unique or bold predictions, panelist banter, and recurring themes.

Sample Predictions and Discussion Highlights

Ben Lindbergh

• Challenge System Incites Benches-Clearing Incident (22:20)
  “The challenge system will incite a bench clearing at some point this season... sparked by a challenge or the way a player challenges.”
  Clarifies that his criteria include bench clearing, not necessarily involving the bullpens, and relies on the ‘know it when you see it’ rule.

• Shohei Ohtani Wins NL Cy Young But Not MVP (34:18)
  “Otani will win the National League Cy Young Award... but not MVP.”
  Explores odd injury and voter fatigue scenarios for the rare possibility Otani’s pitching would outshine his hitting, drawing on past medical consult and listener questions for plausibility.

• Four AL East Teams Make Playoffs (42:09)
  “Four American League East teams will make the playoffs. This has never happened.”
  Acknowledges it's become possible since expanded playoffs, but remains rare.

• Pirates’ Homegrown Pitching Milestone (91:26)
  “The Pittsburgh Pirates amass the most WAR by starting pitchers 30 or younger who never pitched previously for another team—in over half a century.”
  Enumerates potential contributors (Skenes, Keller, Ashcraft, Jones, etc.), dreams on a new, homegrown Pittsburgh rotation, and references sabermetric research support.

Michael Bauman

• Height Bimodality in NL Cy Young Voting (25:26)
  “Every NL Cy Young vote getter will be listed at 6’6” or taller, or at 6’0” or shorter...”
  Inspired by recent seasons’ trends; expects a visual ‘tall guy next to a short guy’ on the awards podium.

• AO3 Fanfic Mania: Tony Vitello & Kyle Shanahan (60:31)
  “Archive of our Own will have at least 10 entries of erotic fan fiction about Giants manager Tony Vitello, or at least one about him and Kyle Shanahan.”
  Unleashes the panel’s best puns, concern for rule manipulation, and references to the idiosyncratic Effectively Wild fandom.

  • “All it would take is for one listener to write a Vitanahan entry, and you win.” (65:37)

• A’s Spend Extravaganza (86:21)
  “The A’s will give out at least $100 million more in contract extensions this season, before we reconvene.”
  Speculates on possible contract targets and echoes the front office’s changing approach.

• Physical Confrontation with MLB Official (96:32)
  “Someone will actually physically assault one of Rob Manfred’s clubhouse emissaries—any physical confrontation between a player and one of Rob Man’s mandarins.”
  Defines broad assault, refers to recent dust-ups, and sparks concern about tracking/reporting.

Ben Bauman

• Cleveland Guardians Batters Troll Cal Raleigh (27:01)
  “Six or more Cleveland Guardians batters will extend their hand, arm or bat towards Cal Raleigh, in a way that invites Cal to touch it, on Opening Day.”
  Inspired by past poking fun at Cal Raleigh’s handshake, predicts playful trolling.

• Kyle Teal WAR Without PAs (39:26)
  “Kyle Teal will lead White Sox hitters in WAR despite not finishing in the top five for PAs among those hitters.”

• Chase Burns Top 5 in Cy Young Voting (48:06)
  “Chase Burns will finish in the top 5 for NL Cy Young voting—even though he’s never pitched at that level.”

• Super-Multi-Franchise Misses Playoffs (106:01)
  “The Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Sacramento A’s, and Cardinals all miss the playoffs in 2026.”

Meg Rowley

• Boldest Debut: Connor Griffin Surpasses Mike Trout’s Rookie WAR (30:00)
  “Connor Griffin will break Mike Trout’s rookie F WAR total of 10.1. The neck is so big. It’s just an enormous neck...”
  A mix of informed scouting (in-person at the combine) and comic awe at Griffin’s physical traits. Banter about “freak neck” lore spreads through the segment.

• AL HR Race: Judge/Raleigh Not #1 (40:52)
  “Neither Aaron Judge nor Cal Raleigh will lead the AL in home runs...”

• Corbin Carroll Joins 20-20-20-20 Club (49:51)
  “Corbin Carroll becomes the fifth MLB player in history with 20+ doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers, and 20 steals in a season.”

• Michael Garcia Surpasses Bobby Witt Jr. in WAR (69:53)
  “Michael Garcia will lead the Royals in WAR. Take that!”

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Notable Quotes & Humorous Exchanges

• “This episode is so weird.” – Meg Rowley (115:37)
• "Did you say Pegasus or AO3?” – Meg Rowley (71:31), in reference to Royals’ access to fanfic sites at team facilities
• “If a Jack Caglion Jersey is going for 8,000, then I’m probably taking the over on the espresso machine, which sounds preposterous.” – Ben Clemens (17:54)
• “I like that genre of prediction where it’s someone was signed to replace someone else and everyone assumes the higher-profile, sexier acquisition will be better... It’s like Meg’s Isaac Paredes will be better than Kyle Tucker prediction from last year, which didn’t quite work out but looked like it might for a little while.” – Ben Clemens (38:02)

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Additional Segments and Running Gags

• Espresso Machine Auction Shtick:

  • Prolonged riff about Team Italy’s WBC dugout espresso machine being auctioned for charity, and whether it should instead be displayed in the Baseball Hall of Fame or the Italian consulate. Much playful snobbery about Nespresso’s quality and speculation on where the auction will end.
  • “Can’t we do better than Nespresso?” – Meg Rowley (12:43)
  • “Erect this coffee machine at Columbus Circle, just high on a pedestal where you could barely see it from the ground…” – Ben Clemens (10:56)

• AO3 Fan Fiction Prediction:

  • Bauman’s prediction launches a deep dive on baseball RPF and the quirks of team managers and the fanfic economy, providing much laughter.
  • "Vitanahan" as the portmanteau for Tony Vitello/Kyle Shanahan slash fiction (61:36)

• Listener Participation Plug:

  • Repeated reminders to vote at ewstats.com, with a leaderboard and special swag for the top predictors. (120:10)
  • “First place will earn free swag from the Effectively Wild online store. So get over there, make your prognostications…” – Chris Hannell (120:23)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening jokes and music: 00:00–02:16
• Guest Introductions and Pre-Prediction Trivia Game: 02:16–11:05
• Espresso Machine Auction Discussion: 10:07–18:24
• Explanation of the 2026 Preseason Predictions Game Rules: 19:52–22:15
• Round 1 of Predictions (main game begins): 22:20–34:03
• Meg Rowley’s neck/effectively wild scouting riff: 30:10–32:10
• AO3 Fan Fiction Prediction Segment: 60:31–67:16
• Listener participation and sign-off, voting instructions: 120:07–123:02
• Polymarket/MLB partnership brief: 123:02–125:54
• Patreon roll and credits: 126:01–end

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Listener Instructions & Interactive Component

• Vote at ewstats.com: Listeners are urged to rate each prediction’s likelihood (vote must be cast before “real opening day”).
• Purpose: Determines point values for each panelist; the bolder (less likely) a prediction is judged, the greater the reward if correct.

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Episode Tone, Spirit, and Flow

• Characteristically loose, irreverent, and nerdy tone with much laughter, personal asides, and inside jokes.
• The panel balances earnest statistical curiosity and competition with an appreciation for baseball’s absurd side and Effectively Wild’s own peculiar community.
• Key themes include not taking themselves (or baseball) too seriously, giving the audience a participatory role, and celebrating both the plausible and the ridiculous in baseball forecasting.

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Concluding Notes

The episode stands as a testament to Effectively Wild's fusion of rigorous analysis, stathead fandom, and eccentric humor. It’s accessible for devotees and new listeners alike, drawing the audience into its predictions game and culture of friendly statistical competition, while never losing sight of the fun in prognosticating baseball’s future.

“Score them accordingly, however likely you think they actually are to occur.” – Ben Lindbergh (122:39)

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For more, including the complete list of predictions, see the show notes and vote at ewstats.com!

Transcript

[Ben Lindbergh]

Hello and welcome. What do I say next? Too effectively wild?

[Ben Clemens]

That's not what I said.

[Meg Rowley]

Leave it in.

[Ben Bauman]

Well, it's moments like these that make you ask, how can you not be horny about baseball?

[Ben Clemens]

Every take hot and hotter entwining and a butting. Watch him climb big mountain.

[Ben Bauman]

Nothing's about nothing.

[Ben Clemens]

Every stitch wet with sweat breaking balls back door me on Effectively wildlife.

[Ben Bauman]

Can you not be horny?

[Ben Clemens]

When it comes to podcasts, how can

[Ben Bauman]

you not be horny?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Hello and welcome to episode 2455 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fan Graphs presented by our Patreon supporters.

[Ben Clemens]

I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined as always by Meg Rally of fangraphs. Hello, Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

Hello.

[Ben Clemens]

But we are joined by a trio of guests who are not always with us, but we are always happy when

[Ben Lindbergh]

they are a couple of your Fangraphs colleagues, one Michael Bauman. Hello, Mr. Bauman.

[Michael Bauman]

I don't think you're always happy when I'm here.

[Ben Clemens]

I am.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We might have this little combative dynamic

[Ben Clemens]

going, but it's based on mutual affection and respect.

[Michael Bauman]

Speaking of mutual affection, I would like to thank Anton, who emailed you my recitation of the musical compositions I made the last time I was on here.

[Ben Clemens]

What we were referring to is when

[Ben Lindbergh]

you made Travis Kelsey's slash Taylor Swift

[Ben Clemens]

inspired Effectively Wild lyrics and they have been set to music.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This pod should come with a parental warning.

[Michael Bauman]

You're about to have your world rocked, my friend.

[Ben Clemens]

Getting all hot and bothered here he

[Michael Bauman]

makes all the D s before seem timid and mild when he bends me over and goes effectively wild I'm effectively

[Ben Clemens]

wild in the bedroom he's known to

[Michael Bauman]

be wild and he's good with the glove with his fingers in his teeth he's tearing off my garters saying, I'd like to thank a couple of our Patreons.

[Chris Hannell]

Supportive.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Just leave it all up to the

[Michael Bauman]

imagination, physiological and sexual prowess of my man's Effectively Wild. He's got me screaming with a purpose. I get on top. He does a stat blast on my cervix.

[Ben Clemens]

Well, now you've put more pressure on me.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is that it? You have more for me? Also with us from fangraphs is other Ben, Ben Clements.

[Ben Clemens]

Hello, Ben.

[Ben Bauman]

Hey, Ben. How's it going?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Do you have any Travis Kelce Taylor Swift inspired lyrics to share with us today?

[Ben Bauman]

Zero. But I do have a game that we're going to play during the draft, so that's fun.

[Ben Clemens]

Is it the 2026 effectively wild preseason predictions game?

[Ben Bauman]

No. I guess this is a great time to announce it. My predictions have a hidden theme and if you guess them, you'll get a guest subscription to the website.

[Ben Clemens]

Oh, wow.

[Chris Hannell]

Oh my God. We have an ARG inside the game.

[Meg Rowley]

Wow, Chris, not everybody plays magic. You got to remember buddy me on Bluesky, perhaps.

[Ben Bauman]

Is that the right way? The first person to figure it out will get it.

[Michael Bauman]

That's.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's one way. Or you could email [e-mail] maybe and

[Ben Clemens]

I will forward to other Ben, the

[Ben Lindbergh]

interloper who just chimed in before he

[Ben Clemens]

was announced on this podcast, goes against every rule. Don't speak unless you're spoken to. Whoa. It's Chris Hannell, effectively wild scorekeeper, a statistician. I don't know which official title you prefer, but you're welcome. One way or another, I'm allowed to talk now. Yes, now you.

[Chris Hannell]

Hi everybody.

[Ben Clemens]

You have been introduced.

[Ben Bauman]

Yay.

[Chris Hannell]

I'm so glad to be here for what is. What is my favorite day of the year in many ways and for many listeners as well, I am told.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, this is Chris's Super Bowl. A lot of preparation goes into this,

[Ben Clemens]

a lot of post podcast work on

[Ben Lindbergh]

his part, and the part of the

[Ben Clemens]

effectively wild stats team goes into this. So it's all been building up to

[Ben Lindbergh]

this and it will all continue to

[Ben Clemens]

build after this as he tracks all of our predictions throughout the year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It is an exciting time.

[Ben Clemens]

This is our fourth annual preseason Predictions game. Yes, we have all aged. Time has passed.

[Michael Bauman]

I'm close to running out of things to predict.

[Chris Hannell]

Ben.

[Ben Bauman]

Yes, Seriously.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, we tried to avoid repeating ourselves, but it's hard to be as fresh

[Ben Clemens]

and creative and original as we have tried to be in the past. But we'll.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We'll do it again. We'll see how it goes. And I always think that it's the bold Preseason Predictions game or the preseason

[Ben Clemens]

Bold Predictions game, but that's not officially in the title. It's just implied that the predictions will be bold. Even for me, I will do my best to be bold. And this is a really fun exercise

[Ben Lindbergh]

for us also for our listeners every

[Ben Clemens]

year because there is a major listener participation component.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Indeed, we could do this without you technically, but we'd prefer not to.

[Ben Clemens]

It wouldn't be as fun if we did. No, not nearly. And so we, we hope that you will all participate and Chris will explain what exactly we are participating in here.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But Bauman, I assume that you have come prepared with a pre predictions game of your own.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, we're going to try to keep this moving quickly because it's about people who move quickly. Ben, today's game is college baseball player or driver in a Formula one support series.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, wow.

[Michael Bauman]

So these are. These are minor league racing drivers. Essentially there are a number. Formula 2, Formula, Formula 3 and so on are like the undercard races for F1. And these are the Formula 1 drivers of tomorrow. At least that's the idea.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, I was going to say I

[Ben Lindbergh]

know a little bit more about F1

[Ben Clemens]

than I used to, which was nothing

[Ben Lindbergh]

because I have kind of covered it in a professional capacity on Hang up and Listen from time to time, but

[Ben Clemens]

our coverage has not extended to the minor leagues of F1, so I don't.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't think I will know these

[Ben Clemens]

names and you know, I won't know the college baseball names, so.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, we'll see.

[Ben Clemens]

Just firing in the dark here, but fire away.

[Michael Bauman]

Name number one is Colton Herta.

[Ben Lindbergh]

See, Colton sounds more baseball coded to me, but that last name sounds maybe more F1 is. So I'm not sure which way to

[Ben Clemens]

go, but I guess I'll stick with Colton being a baseball name. And I'll guess college baseball player.

[Michael Bauman]

No, he is the driver for the High Tech Formula 2 team, former IndyCar race winner and Cadillac reserve driver for. For the F1 team. I. Ben, when we worked together, I wrote a big feature article about him as one of the potential next Americans in F1.

[Ben Clemens]

That's embarrassing for me, but you don't

[Michael Bauman]

read any of my stuff, man.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I read much of your stuff, but

[Ben Clemens]

I may have missed the F1 prospect piece. I will confess. Did you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Did this go into your thinking at all that Colton sounds like a baseball name?

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, so you are actually trying to trick me here.

[Michael Bauman]

Not only that, but. But this is a guy who you could plausibly have heard of in your limited capacity as a sports generalist. So I was trying to shoot the moon and get one that maybe our

[Ben Clemens]

listeners, if that was my best chance, then that. Well, yeah. All right, continue.

[Michael Bauman]

You always figure out the rhythm before I do. So number two is John Morlonghi.

[Ben Clemens]

Are you refusing to spell.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Can I get you to spell D

[Michael Bauman]

I, N N O M E R L O N G H I.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, see now it's almost the opposite where that I would say F1. And so I'm going to guess that you are trying to flummox me again. And I'm going to say college baseball player.

[Michael Bauman]

He is a college baseball player. He's an outfielder for Central Connecticut State. Number three, Paris Pridgeon. Paris Pridgeon.

[Ben Clemens]

Paris Pridgeon.

[Ben Lindbergh]

There's some chance that I would have heard of someone with that name in college baseball. It just seems like a memorable name and does not ring a bell.

[Ben Clemens]

So, going to go F1 now.

[Michael Bauman]

Paris Pridgeon is an infielder for Austin P. The Austin Peay Governors. Let's go P.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is that the actual slogan?

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah. Number four, Peyton Westcott.

[Ben Clemens]

Peyton Westcott. Wow. This sounds so. So preppy, so aristocratic. I'm torn on this one. I guess I'll go F1.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

Peyton Westcott.

[Ben Bauman]

She.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh.

[Michael Bauman]

Is an F1 Academy driver.

[Ben Clemens]

Threw me for a loop there.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Michael Bauman]

Or PRA Racing. And in the Mercedes F1 ladder.

[Ben Clemens]

All right, all right.

[Michael Bauman]

And the last one. Titan Kamaka.

[Ben Clemens]

Titan Kamaka.

[Meg Rowley]

Titan.

[Ben Clemens]

Titan Kamaka.

[Meg Rowley]

Titan Kamaka.

[Ben Clemens]

See? See? Meg's giving me extra because I'm just

[Meg Rowley]

delighted by the name. I'm giving you no information other than.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, if I'd gone in cold, I would have guessed, like, AEW wrestler.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm just thinking.

[Ben Clemens]

Yes, true, But I'm just thinking Meg

[Ben Lindbergh]

is more likely to have heard of a college baseball player than I am,

[Ben Clemens]

and it sounds as if this might

[Ben Lindbergh]

be new to her, too, so I'm. I. I'm gonna go either way.

[Ben Clemens]

I. I won't attribute this to Meg chiming in, but I'll go F1.

[Michael Bauman]

No. Titan Kamaka is an infielder at Mercer, where he's currently hitting. He's currently hitting over.500.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Had you heard of Titan Kamakameg?

[Meg Rowley]

No. I really just was delighting at the name. Titan Kamaka. Titan.

[Michael Bauman]

I feel good about this. I feel like you had. You had gotten a bead on me recently. Ben. Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

I couldn't read you this time. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Did I. How many did I get? Two.

[Michael Bauman]

Two.

[Meg Rowley]

All right, that's not bad.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, I'll take two. I'm just happy to get on the board on any of these, really. That's. Once I get one, the pressure is really off. So I'm pleased with the outcome of this. We'll see if I will be equally pleased with the outcome of our flagship game today, our main attraction, which is not to suggest that people don't come

[Ben Lindbergh]

to hear college baseball player or.

[Ben Clemens]

Because I know that's a big draw, too.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I will just say one thing that I wanted to apprise Meg of,

[Ben Clemens]

though she may already be aware. And I hesitate to bring this up on the podcast, because by bringing it up, I am potentially making it harder for you to win this auction yourself, because I'm creating many potential bidders, but the espresso machine, slash auctioning nespresso machine.

[Meg Rowley]

Shouldn't that go to hall of fame? Yeah, a hall of fame.

[Michael Bauman]

Nespresso on display in, like, the Italian consulate in Washington.

[Meg Rowley]

Everywhere that there is a statue of Christopher Columbus, tear down and build a platform to temporarily display an espresso machine.

[Ben Clemens]

Erect this coffee machine at Columbus Circle, just high on a pedestal where you could barely see it from the ground. But no, it is true.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They are auctioning this thing off.

[Ben Clemens]

That's a crime.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess it's a crime. Although it's also ostensibly for a good cause. So there's that.

[Meg Rowley]

What's the cause? But still, let me be the judge of that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

You'll evaluate whether this is a sufficiently good cause.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It says all net proceeds from this auction will benefit the Southwest Autism Research and Resource Center.

[Ben Clemens]

Is that a good cause?

[Meg Rowley]

That is a good cause. Yeah. Unequivocal on that one.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, maybe whoever wins the bidding will

[Ben Clemens]

donate it to the hall of Fame or put it publicly on display. It'll be like, you know, you get Shohei Ohtani's milestone baseball or whatever, and then you display it in a glass

[Ben Lindbergh]

case with a bunch of security guards around. So I almost want to ask you

[Ben Clemens]

to guess what it's going for right now.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm not sure exactly when it started,

[Ben Clemens]

but as we speak, there are four days about remaining in this, as we record here on Thursday afternoon.

[Meg Rowley]

When did it open?

[Ben Lindbergh]

March 17th.

[Ben Clemens]

So that was Tuesday. Early Tuesday morning.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay.

[Ben Clemens]

And it closes on the 23rd.

[Meg Rowley]

I'm going to guess $10,000.

[Michael Bauman]

Not quite.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It could get there. It could get there.

[Meg Rowley]

There's thousand dollars.

[Ben Clemens]

This is what you would pay, I think.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But this is not what the market currently is. But there's plenty of time. We know you know, auctions.

[Ben Clemens]

Like, there will be a flurry of bids.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't think it's.

[Ben Clemens]

It's not at all unrealistic that it could end up there because, in fact,

[Ben Lindbergh]

there have already been 46 bids.

[Ben Bauman]

And.

[Ben Clemens]

And. But the bid increments are 10 bucks. So it stands right now as we speak at $1130.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay, so here's. Here's what I'll say about this, and I'm going to reveal myself to be a particular kind of snob. I appreciate the sentimental value of the espresso machine, but can't we do better than Nespresso? But, like.

[Ben Clemens]

Right, yes. You did say you wanted a fancier machine next time around.

[Michael Bauman]

That's how you know these guys are Italian American and not actual.

[Meg Rowley]

And not actual Italian.

[Michael Bauman]

You guys read Hannah Kaiser's story on the Italian guy, you say like he wants six Italian born players on the next WBC team is like a, an interstitial measure. I think getting a proper espresso machine should, should count as one of the six players.

[Meg Rowley]

I, as I said on our last episode, I think that they should just have a barista and. In the, in the dugout and not a branded barista. I want them to go to Italy and find preferably a small Italian man, and I want him to just like blow the socks off of Jack Caglion in terms of like what a good coffee can be. Because I think Vinnie probably already knows, but I think, you know, Jack's from Florida. He probably has a culinary education ahead of him. If I had to hazard a guess.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, quantities are limited.

[Ben Clemens]

There's only one of these in the world. I mean, I'm sure it's a mass produced item, but there's only one that was actually in the dugout.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This is not one of those things

[Ben Clemens]

where they authenticated a bunch of different models or something. They didn't swap in a bunch. I think there's, there can only be one. It's Highlander and it's the Team Italy espresso machine. But it says that it's authenticated to three WBC games, the pool play, quarterfinal, semifinal. And shipping is actually pretty pricey on this thing. If you're, if you're not in the continental US you got to pay 150 bucks to get this thing.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, sure, but it's probably going to be someone in the Continental.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, they probably have to hire a private plane and security and just like, you know, it's going to be chained to a briefcase that someone is holding in first class or something.

[Ben Bauman]

Well, how does it work with shipping something authenticated like that? Like I could ship you in espresso.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

How does it, how does it work shipping anything to that part of the world right now? Oh, God, what a, what a tragedy that would be if the Italian nespresso machine was shot down.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

Yes. No, we can't have that happen. But I do wonder, anyone care to

[Ben Lindbergh]

hazard a guess where the bidding will

[Ben Clemens]

end up, do you think?

[Meg Rowley]

Four days left.

[Ben Clemens]

You said four days left. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And, and this is, this has been

[Ben Clemens]

viewed as we speak, only fewer than 6,000 times. So I feel like by mentioning it on Effectively Wild, I'm potentially really juicing the bidding here, which I guess a good deed if you're the Southwest Autism Research and Resource center, but not great if you were hoping to just pounce on this thing at the last second.

[Michael Bauman]

I think my answer to that question depends on whether or not Meg is going to ask me to borrow money in the next four days.

[Meg Rowley]

It's like, why weren't you able to buy a house? Well, funny story. I'm going to say more than five, but less than 10,000.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

Like, more than 5,000. Less than 10,000 will be where it ultimately lands. Do you think that they flew it on the charter when they went to Miami? Like, do you think that it got a seat on the charter?

[Michael Bauman]

I would think so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

I would assume so. Like, you don't want to. I don't know if you guys saw this, but Daniil Medvedev, who almost won the tennis tournament, Indian Wells, flew commercial to Miami and lost his tennis rackets.

[Meg Rowley]

What?

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, he, like, tweeted at United, I

[Meg Rowley]

would carry them on and just be like, I'll play naked. Like, what are you going to do? This is the most important, important piece of equipment I'm bringing. I can go to Dicks for the other stuff.

[Ben Clemens]

Well, if you play naked, everyone's going to be going to Dicks if Danielle does it, at least. But it says it's sold in as is condition, so. Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

One more note.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They're not going to refurbish this thing.

[Ben Bauman]

No.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's going to be covered in. In all the grime that you would

[Ben Clemens]

want it to, which adds value. I think if you restored this somehow, it would actually would remove the value.

[Chris Hannell]

But does it have one of the little holographic stickers? That's what I want to know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It is.

[Ben Clemens]

It is festooned with stickers and it does not appear to have been tampered with at all.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And the interesting thing is that there

[Ben Clemens]

are other game used items. Like if Meg wants to pick up

[Ben Lindbergh]

another Team Italy item and they're all

[Ben Clemens]

going, most of them are going for more than the espresso machine. If you want to get.

[Michael Bauman]

That's crazy.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If you want to get a game

[Ben Clemens]

used jersey that was worn by, say, Jack Caglion or Michael Lorenzen or Francisco Cervelli, it's going to run you much more than this coffee machine. Currently, the. The Jack Caglion Jersey is at 8,000 plus right now.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Now.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay. It's closer to. To being done. So maybe that's it. Maybe it's just that they started earlier because I gotta think for that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Are they also going to charity? Let me check. But I. It looks like no.

[Meg Rowley]

So someone's just pocketing the Jack money.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I guess so. Yeah, but this is up. Up for bidding through the MLB auctions site.

[Ben Clemens]

And yeah, the jerseys are actually closing today, so that's probably why. But it would. It would be wrong if the jerseys went for more than the espresso machine, which was the signature item. And that actually makes me think. So if. If a Jack jersey is going for 8,000, then I'm probably taking the over on the espresso machine, which sounds preposterous

[Ben Lindbergh]

because I don't know what the actual model number of this espresso machine is, but the list price, the retail price for this piece of equipment is I'm guessing about what the shipping costs are probably less.

[Meg Rowley]

So, yeah, I think It's a sub $200 model. I'm laughing at Jack jersey as a. I'm just. Look, it's funny, okay? I have one. I have one working brain cell. I'm trying so hard to not have every word that comes out of my mouth, like, laced with just the fatigue and bitchiness.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, Meg, you still have a few days to get your bid in.

[Ben Clemens]

If you care. We'll see how high that number goes,

[Ben Lindbergh]

and maybe we can place a prediction

[Ben Clemens]

on that at polymarket now that MLB has partnered with its official prediction market partner. So I'm sure we're all pleased to see that news.

[Meg Rowley]

Can I share a fun Meg fact as I choke on water and samosa? I already have a Team Italy jersey, and it's a Pat Venditti Team Italy jersey, and it is one of my most prized possessions.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, that's great.

[Michael Bauman]

Oh, that's cute.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, well, let's get to our main game here. We have come with some predictions about

[Ben Clemens]

the 2026 baseball season, and we are about to share them with you, and you are about to weigh in on how likely you think they are to come to pass.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And Chris, Yes. Since you're really the ringleader here, you are the originator of this game.

[Ben Clemens]

You got us into this mess, and you handle all of the administrative details.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Would you care to run us through the rules refresh? And I'm including myself in that memories.

[Chris Hannell]

Absolutely. All right, so 2026 preseason predictions game. The way that this will work is each of our four panelists are going to make 10 predictions about the 2026 baseball season. And they are going to earn points if they come to pass, and they're going to lose points if they do not come to pass by the end of award season. Theoretically, when the MVP awards are given out in November, how many points they win or lose is based on viewer voting. Listener voting. So what's going to happen is you can pull it up right now as you're listening, go to ewstats.com and you will see a ballot of all 40 predictions that have been made. And you're going to grade them how likely each one of those you think it is, and those will be averaged out to determine the number of points that can win or lose. The less likely that you all think a prediction is, the more points they will gain and the less points they will lose. And we are adding one more wrinkle to this season. Each of our panelists is going to cast doubt on one of their fellow panelists predictions, and they will get to take the other side of that prediction. Any points the other person loses, they will gain towards their own point total. So you want to be listening for something that you think listeners will grade as likely but will still not happen. We will get things underway and we are going to go by reverse order of last year's contest. So that means our order is Ben Lindbergh, Michael Bauman, Ben Clemens, and last year's winner, Meg Rowley. So, Ben, where shall we begin?

[Ben Clemens]

All right. And I should say I'm glad you're

[Ben Lindbergh]

gracing us with your presence for this podcast because in previous editions, you have

[Ben Clemens]

not actually participated in the initial podcast. You have joined joined us on the recap pods where you reveal all the scoring and grading at the end of the year. But you have not been on the initial podcasts.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so by being here, you can immediately chime in. You'll probably mostly lurk as we go through this exercise, but if there are

[Ben Clemens]

any points of contention, anything we need to clarify, adjudicate, we can do that

[Ben Lindbergh]

in real time instead of via frantic

[Ben Clemens]

post, podcast recordings and maybe and exchanges. And so we can get that all straightened out as we go.

[Chris Hannell]

So it's all on the record. Let's get going.

[Ben Clemens]

All right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, I'm going to begin with a

[Ben Clemens]

challenge system prediction, because I'm sure I'm

[Ben Lindbergh]

not the only one who has one holstered. So I figured I'd, I'd get ahead of it and I'm gonna kind of take. It's a little bit reminiscent of my prediction from last year, which actually paid

[Ben Clemens]

off about that there would be a sarcastic challenge that someone would tap their helmet even though there was no actual challenge system in place. And that one did pay off for me eventually.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I'm gonna say. And we bantered about this not long

[Ben Clemens]

ago, Meg, but I'm gonna say that

[Ben Lindbergh]

the challenge system will Incite a bench

[Ben Clemens]

clearing at some point this season. Now, I'm already anticipating perhaps Chris questions here.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I. I think this is sort of a. You know it when you see it. It will be provoked, sparked by a challenge or by the manner in which a player challenges.

[Ben Clemens]

Maybe it's their body language as they're challenging. You know, maybe it's what we talked about with Willier Abreu, just taking it for granted that he was going to win the challenge and striding down to first base before the ruling was actually relayed. And maybe teams would take offense to that and there'd be unwritten rules and there'd be some jawing, and then the benches were clear.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Or maybe it'll be about the time when someone does it.

[Ben Clemens]

Maybe, you know, you're up in a

[Ben Lindbergh]

blowout and you challenge and it's considered unbecoming to press your advantage. Something like that. Now, there could certainly be intra team discord sparked by the challenge system, but that would probably not prompt a bench clearing. Maybe we'll. We'll hear about it.

[Ben Clemens]

Maybe there will be some arguing in the dugout or something.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But this is specifically, I think, interteam.

[Ben Clemens]

This is one team to the other.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I'm going to say that the challenge just has to sort of spark it.

[Chris Hannell]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, like, obviously, there could be additional developments.

[Ben Clemens]

Like maybe someone takes issue with the

[Ben Lindbergh]

challenge, and then there are words exchanged,

[Ben Clemens]

and then it heats up and then

[Ben Lindbergh]

it graduates to bench clearing.

[Ben Clemens]

I think that still counts, as long as it starts with the challenge system.

[Chris Hannell]

Can I offer a bright line? The bullpens have to come out.

[Ben Clemens]

See, that's bolder.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's bolder than I was gonna go. I wonder what percentage of bench clearings also include bullpen clearings. It's not a hundred, obviously, a lot

[Ben Clemens]

of them do, but it's. I. I don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think that's a slightly different prediction than I. I care to offer here.

[Ben Clemens]

And. And you can score it accordingly. But, yeah, I'm gonna say just benches

[Ben Lindbergh]

clearing, not necessarily bullpens, but there will

[Ben Clemens]

be general milling about, and people will be on the field, and there may or may not be tussling. There may or may not be players asking other players to hold them back or demanding that they do. But, yeah, that's. That's what I'm going with here.

[Chris Hannell]

I will allow it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think that.

[Chris Hannell]

That. I think you're right. I think we'll know it when we'll see it.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right.

[Chris Hannell]

I'm going to eat those words immediately.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But, yes, Bauman.

[Michael Bauman]

Okay. I'm going to go with a prediction that I had to revise actually on the fly. Every National League Cy Young vote getter will either be listed at 6 foot 6 or taller or at 6 foot or shorter. So that get it was originally every Cy Young, NL Cy Young finalist will be of those dimensions, but that actually happened last year with Paul Skeens, Christopher Sanchez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. So I'm doubling down on that trend. Get you Chris Sales, Spencer Strider, Andrew Abbott, who's my dark horse guy for this year, Jesus Lizardo, Freddie Peralta is listed at 6 foot somehow. So basically everybody but Logan Webb and a few other people, I'm guessing we're gonna get my favorite thing in sports, which is a picture of a tall guy next to a short guy.

[Ben Clemens]

It's interesting that there's a. That a height gap among the aces

[Michael Bauman]

there, but only in the National League.

[Ben Clemens]

Right? Okay. Yeah. Because I guess you have. How tall is Tarek Skle? 63. So he's right smack dab in the middle there. Yeah. Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right. That's a fun one. And other. Ben.

[Ben Bauman]

All right, I'm going to start with some call it WBC topical stuff. So here's my.

[Ben Clemens]

Here's one is complete.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right. You'll see.

[Ben Bauman]

It's things that are top of mind

[Ben Clemens]

because of the wbc.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I see.

[Meg Rowley]

Very recent.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, but it has concluded, which makes wbc.

[Michael Bauman]

I promise, I saw this Italy thing coming.

[Ben Bauman]

You'll see. All right, let's start.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And this is not your theme.

[Ben Clemens]

You're not giving away your secret that it's all wc.

[Ben Bauman]

Some of my predictions relate to people, relate to things that we were all made aware of during the wbc. So let's start.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And also your theme is not that

[Ben Clemens]

they're all things that you're predicting about the 2026 season. It's more specific than that.

[Ben Bauman]

It might be that, but I won't give you the subscription for that.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Ben Bauman]

Okay. So you'll have to do better. Okay. On their game on opening day, six or more distinct Cleveland guardians batters will extend their hand, arm and or bat towards Cal Raleigh in a way that either makes contact with Cal Raleigh or in the judgment of a neutral baseball observer, invites Cal Raleigh to touch the thing that they extended towards him.

[Meg Rowley]

I love this.

[Michael Bauman]

I tried so hard to come up with a way to make this. Make a Cal Raleigh handshake prediction. This is so good.

[Ben Bauman]

Okay, so I'm also thinking that I will explain why I think my predictions are bold on each of these, because that's kind of what we're doing. I think this one's bold because baseball players aren't good natured trolls like we are. Like, if baseball players were like me, this would have happened 27 times in the next three games. Like only Josh Naylor, who is a good natured troll, did it. But the point is, almost everyone I didn't. I. Like, if I were running these teams, if I were these players, this would be a 100% certainty. But no one does this. I really want them to, but I just don't think it's going to happen. I'm trying to manifest into the world, but aside from Bo Nailer, who I'm hoping takes something from his brother, I'm guessing that everyone's just going to ignore it. But God, it would make me happy if they didn't.

[Michael Bauman]

I think it's the wrong team to do this because the Guardians are a team of anonymous nobodies managed by a really nice guy.

[Ben Bauman]

And that would make it much funnier.

[Michael Bauman]

I mean, it would be awesome. It would make it way cooler. But like, if it was the Giants or the Padres or something. Yeah, I would be slamming this.

[Ben Bauman]

I'm with you. I had to work a while on getting the wording right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, now we know that Chris will be watching the Guardians game on opening day, I guess very closely. It's scrutinizing the video footage from every angle. He'll be Zapruder this thing.

[Ben Bauman]

Hey, at least it's not year long.

[Chris Hannell]

Yeah, I'm gonna have to get someone to attend the game for me and catch stuff that didn't make the telecast, I think.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, you have to go that far, I think. But if this happens, I think we would know because it, it would be newsworthy. I think it would be reported.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, but one or two might do it and no one will say anything about it. But if they all do, we're going to know.

[Ben Clemens]

I. I could see one guy doing it, but it's the. What did you say?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Six of them doing it.

[Ben Bauman]

That's six or more distinct batters. Not the same guy four times, two

[Ben Clemens]

others, which would be a great bid if they all committed to it. But yes, it does seem unlikely and, and therefore bold. All right. It fits the description.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, let's wrap up round one here with Meg Riley.

[Meg Rowley]

And I'm. I'm closing the round because I, I won last time, right?

[Ben Clemens]

That's right. Yes.

[Meg Rowley]

That's the logic behind the draft.

[Ben Clemens]

That is exactly why, just to remind you, we're victorious you trounced us all.

[Meg Rowley]

And therefore, I'm saying it once and then I'm moving on. Because unlike some people, view Adrien Brody's approach to speeches as aspirational.

[Ben Clemens]

No, you know, it was.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It was a. It was a nice win. It wasn'.

[Ben Clemens]

Historic.

[Meg Rowley]

Anyway, anyway, my. I'm going to open with this because I'm a little nervous that it'll get scooped. I think that I'm predicting that Connor Griffin will break Mike trout's rookie F war total of 10.1 war.

[Ben Clemens]

Spicy.

[Meg Rowley]

This is a Bolt. This is so Bolt record. And by a guy, you know, who had had time in the majors the year before. We don't even know for sure. Connor Griffin's making the opening day roster, folks, which suggests that he might have to do this in less than a full season. But also, the neck is so big. It's just an enormous neck and he's incredibly talented. So I'm going with Connor Griffin More than 10.1 more. And Chris, just to reiterate, I am specifying fan graphs.

[Ben Clemens]

Oh, yes.

[Michael Bauman]

Were you in the room when. When he came by, when we were

[Meg Rowley]

at the combine, I told the story, like, on seven different podcasts. I was so happy.

[Michael Bauman]

I had the biggest nec I've ever seen on a. On a child.

[Meg Rowley]

It's the biggest neck.

[Michael Bauman]

Thank you.

[Meg Rowley]

Thank you. I'm so happy. I'm so happy for you to verify my experience because when he walked in the door to talk to you, I was relieved that I have at least enough social skill to not go, oh, my God, your neck.

[Michael Bauman]

And it's a combination of. Of the neck and tiny ears.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, he does have small ears. You're right. He's sort of like Bryce Miller has really small ears. You know, have you ever noticed that.

[Michael Bauman]

That who was the. There was an NBA player with really, really tiny ears, like back in the 90s. I'm not going to pull it, but

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm glad you included the condition for

[Ben Clemens]

a child, because I was going to say there's a bodybuilder who's known as Nexilla, and I think Nexilla comfortably has a bigger neck than Connor Griffin.

[Michael Bauman]

But, yeah, I'd have to see what it was like when he was 18. But like. And like all these 18 year olds are 6 inches taller than me and.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

You know, gigantic.

[Meg Rowley]

But except for Weatherholt.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, he was little.

[Ben Clemens]

All right, that's a fun one. We do.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We do 10 of these each. Is that what we do? All right.

[Meg Rowley]

So many.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This is one, I think, also because Chris Keeps the voting open until first pitch, right?

[Meg Rowley]

Yes.

[Chris Hannell]

Oh, I should clarify. We're doing real opening day.

[Ben Clemens]

Oh, okay. Real opening day Thursday.

[Chris Hannell]

We're doing when everyone get out of

[Ben Clemens]

here playing Giants, Yankees, everyone's okay.

[Chris Hannell]

That doesn't.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, I was going to say that

[Ben Lindbergh]

at some point over the period between when this podcast is posted and first

[Ben Clemens]

pitch, there will be clarity as to

[Ben Lindbergh]

whether Connor Griffin is making the Pirates opening day roster, which will, I suppose, skew things a little. The early voters versus the late voters. But probably not that much. Probably not that much because this is still super bold.

[Ben Clemens]

Either way, it's so bold.

[Meg Rowley]

It's. You know, I'm. It's really.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Bold.

[Ben Clemens]

It is.

[Meg Rowley]

Chris. I don't think there's anything wrong with playing magic, by the way. Like, magic is cool. I'm just saying, not everyone place. I felt like I was kind of rude.

[Chris Hannell]

An ARG has nothing to do with Magic the Gathering. But I appreciate your.

[Meg Rowley]

But you know what I mean. It's like they're friends. The whole thing is friends. So I felt like I was a little rude and I felt bad about it. I had to say.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I also just want to make a. A plea and appeal here because, you

[Ben Clemens]

know, people will probably be listening, I hope, to this whole thing before they vote, and maybe I will repeat this plea later. But I. I hope people, in the

[Ben Lindbergh]

spirit of the exercise, do try to actually assess the likelihood that of these respective predictions, because they're always too high, which I guess goes with the territory. And maybe it's fine because it's all

[Ben Clemens]

relative anyway, but we are always sort of surprised by, like, how not bold

[Ben Lindbergh]

we are judged to be. And we always feel like we were

[Ben Clemens]

bolder than the crowd says.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And it's like, you don't want to

[Ben Clemens]

just, you know, zero out every prediction. Like, you want to have some fun here. I get that. But also, some of these are going to be extremely unlikely. So keep that in mind.

[Meg Rowley]

Keep it in mind.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's.

[Ben Clemens]

It's just generally inflated across the board, which is fine for the purposes of the game, but I want credit for how bold we're being. That's all I'm saying. All right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

My second prediction is one that I toyed with making on last year's episode,

[Ben Clemens]

but I decided not to because the time was not yet ripe. And it's probably not ripe now, but it's riper. And here it is. You're going to hear the first part of this prediction. You're going to say, ben, that's not nearly bold enough. But it will get bolder. SH Otani will win the National League Cy Young Award. And if he does, I guess that'll screw up Michael's prediction too.

[Michael Bauman]

Unless he grows.

[Ben Clemens]

Unless he grows, but is merely 64. But that part is not especially bold. Okay, the odds aren't in favor of

[Ben Lindbergh]

that happening, but he's a leading candidate

[Ben Clemens]

and he has said that he wants to do it. He has set his mind to doing it. And who are we to bet against Shohei Otani doing something he sets his mind to?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Here's the twist.

[Ben Clemens]

He doesn't win Most Valuable Player. He wins Sayan, but he does not win mvp.

[Ben Lindbergh]

How could this happen?

[Ben Clemens]

You're wondering. Well, probably it couldn't, is the answer. But there are some scenarios where it could happen.

[Ben Lindbergh]

One is that in a reverse of the situation we've had in the past

[Ben Clemens]

where he could hit but not pitch,

[Ben Lindbergh]

he sustained some injury that prevents him from hitting but not from pitching, which is unlikely, but possible.

[Ben Clemens]

And we actually had a listener email about this on episode 2107. And I consulted Glenn Fleisig at the American Sports Medicine Institute to ask what would be some sort of injury that could presumably prevent him from hitting but allow him to continue to pitch.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And he said that there are some possibilities.

[Ben Clemens]

So and I was mentioning this too on the podcast, like if he had some issue with his left arm or

[Ben Lindbergh]

wrist, like his non throwing arm, something

[Ben Clemens]

that wouldn't prevent him from wearing a glove while he's on the mound, but would prevent him from rotating his hands, his arms comfortably, his wrists, whatever. So that could be something. And Glenn Fleisig said, I certainly can see a hypothetical situation where a person

[Ben Lindbergh]

can throw but not back.

[Ben Clemens]

For instance, certain injuries in the lead arm or in the trunk may prohibit batting but be okay in throwing.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And from time to time we see something like that with a pitcher, or

[Ben Clemens]

we used to when pitchers hit when they were instructed not to, as Sam

[Ben Lindbergh]

Miller memorably wrote once. So I think that could happen. Obviously I hope that doesn't happen because

[Ben Clemens]

I want him to hit two but that's one possible way that this could pay off for me.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Another is that Connor Griffin has the best season ever, maybe, and Meg's prediction

[Ben Clemens]

comes true and everyone just wants to give him the mvp. And there's a little voter fatigue maybe

[Ben Lindbergh]

when it comes to Ohtani and we want some new blood here. And maybe even if Ohtani has his best pitching season, he has a little

[Ben Clemens]

bit of a down year offensively.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so that feels kind of like a letdown.

[Ben Clemens]

And so someone else just has an amazing year and he actually doesn't have the overall WAR lead somehow, or it's close enough that there's a desire among the voters to give that award to someone else. So that's what I'm going with here.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And, and this is the first time really that he has been unconstrained entering a season since 2022.

[Ben Clemens]

I guess 2022 is the only MLB season in which Ohtani has just gone wire to wire as a two way player and hasn't started or finished, compromised in some way. And he's been pretty explicit about the fact that he's going for it and he wants to be the first NPP player, Japanese player, to win a Cy Young Award. So that's the prediction.

[Michael Bauman]

All right. I've reordered mine again because I feel like it's I don't want to give away where I'm going to use my doubt card, but I'll just read my prediction out Jake Mangum produces more WAR for the Pirates this year than Connor Griffin.

[Ben Clemens]

Ooh.

[Michael Bauman]

Now I think Jake Mangum is a fascinating player, a weird player who probably should be getting plenty of playing time for the Pirates. I love Connor Griffin and his freakish neck. I think he's going to be an incredible big leaguer. But like we had this incredible freak athlete, you know, high school shortstop come up, Bobby Wood Jr. Just a couple of years ago and he had 20 home runs, stole 30 bases as a rookie and he also had a.294 OBP and finished with 2.3 WAR. And he was two years older then than Griffin is now. So Griffin could still be like future inner circle hall of Famer and not be that good as a 20 year old rookie, assuming the Pirates even bring him up early enough in the season to challenge the Mike Trout WAR record. So I'm shorting Meg's first prediction.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, I like that genre of prediction where it's like someone was traded for someone else or someone was signed to replace someone else and everyone assumes that the higher profile, sexier signing or acquisition will be better than the other guy. It's like Meg's Isaac Predis will be better than than Kyle Tucker prediction from

[Ben Lindbergh]

last year which didn't quite work out but looked like it might for a little while.

[Meg Rowley]

Kurtz1 worked well.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, yeah, Nick Kurtz Travis was on it. Yeah, I like that genre. Okay, other Ben.

[Ben Bauman]

All right, last WBC one. For me this is more righting a wrong. I was sad that Kyle Teal got hurt. That was a Bummer. So here's one that is that draws off that Kyle Teal will lead White Sox hitters in WAR despite not finishing in the top five for plate appearances among those hitters.

[Meg Rowley]

I love that.

[Ben Bauman]

Why is this bold? It's because of the. The correlation, right? Like, if he has the most war, it's often because he batted a lot, and if he didn't bat a lot, he often didn't rack up a lot of war. It's kind of like Ben's with the. The Cy Young mvp, you know, Sayon. Not MVP for Otani. Like, Cy Young and mvp very positively correlated, this one. Very negatively correlated. But, yeah, I don't know. Teal is awesome. I like it him. And that was just so sad that he got hurt at, like, this exhibition on a fun team. That was a big bummer. But I hope he bounces back strongly. And, I mean, Munaka Murakami is our projected leader for the White Sox, which is really good reason. I think that that makes sense. That's who I would predict, actually. I guess he's the predicted hitting leader. And Colson Montgomery, because of defensive value, gets a little ahead of him. Teal is not that close to those guys. I just think. Think that he's better than advertised, that he will produce more defensive value than we project, and that maybe somehow he will still not finish top five among plate appearances despite that, which is, again, you know, possible.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, he'll make the most of his plate appearances.

[Ben Bauman]

That's what I'm hoping.

[Ben Clemens]

Arrive late, but make up for lost time.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

Neither Aaron Judge nor Cal Raleigh will lead the American League in home runs. Neither of them.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Them.

[Meg Rowley]

If one of them does, then it doesn't. It's not true. They have to both miss.

[Ben Clemens]

I get it.

[Meg Rowley]

Both of them.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

And you might think, like, hey, Junior Caminero exists. And I would say, yeah, he does, but he hit a lot fewer home runs than those guys, so, you know, it's gonna be tricky. There is some boldness. I think it is like, a nice hedge for me rooting against something as it pertains to cow, so that if, like, it goes badly, I get to have something nice. So maybe this one's just for me.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I wonder what the.

[Ben Clemens]

The actual probability of that happening is. I'm not gonna look it up.

[Meg Rowley]

It's probably very high.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right field, usually field over, even if

[Ben Clemens]

it's two spectacular guys, is usually gonna be higher. I'm not Gonna check on MLB's new

[Ben Lindbergh]

prediction market partner to see if that's the Case.

[Ben Clemens]

But I think, yeah, that maybe undercuts the boldness.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But also it feels hard to envision anyone but one of those guys doing it in a weird way. So. Yeah. Okay. Okay. All right.

[Ben Clemens]

I am going to predict that four

[Ben Lindbergh]

American League east teams will make the playoffs.

[Ben Clemens]

And this has never happened. We've never had four teams from a single division. Technically, I think it couldn't have happened prior to what, 20, 22 or whatever. So that doesn't mean that much.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But obviously it's still sort of difficult

[Ben Clemens]

for it to happen. We need the AL east teams to run the table and be better than all of the potential wildcard contenders in the Central and the West. So on the one hand, I believe

[Ben Lindbergh]

that as we record on the Fangrass

[Ben Clemens]

playoff odds page, each of the top

[Ben Lindbergh]

four teams in the AL east has a better than 50% probability to make the playoffs.

[Ben Clemens]

Which might make this seem chalky, but if you put it all together, I think the odds are that at least one of them will miss. But I'm going to say that they don't. And I think this is going to be, even by AL east standards, a

[Ben Lindbergh]

really strong race and potentially a close and exciting race. And I'm going to say that, that

[Ben Clemens]

four of the teams, maybe, I don't know how good the race will be, but maybe all the teams that are actually involved in this race will win it by one definition by making the playoffs. All right.

[Michael Bauman]

Ben, you like space?

[Ben Clemens]

You know I do.

[Michael Bauman]

So I've got a launch, a space launch related prediction.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Michael Bauman]

Which is that Artemis 2 will launch before the first regular season batted ball with an exit below of 117 or more. Artemis 2 has been driving back and forth from the launch pad all winter

[Ben Lindbergh]

and it's supposed to be April 1st.

[Michael Bauman]

April 1st.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

This could be off the board pretty soon. Last year there were 32 batted balls at 117 or more, which felt low to me. I thought there would have been more. But the first came via John Kenzie Noel, possible AL home run leader on April 13th. So we'll see if the rocket gets the moon rocket lifts off before the the very first 117 mile an hour batted ball. And the Yankees could make a fool out of me very, very quickly.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, it was, I think wise of NASA to schedule this in honor of season five of For All Mankind debuting. I think this is a sponsored tie in. It's not actually, but it is.

[Michael Bauman]

I mean if this was For All Mankind, that thing would blow up.

[Ben Bauman]

That's.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, I mean from akind way Ahead

[Ben Clemens]

of our timeline when it comes to moon base building.

[Michael Bauman]

But I think, to my everlasting annoyance.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I know, but this is a fun one.

[Ben Clemens]

I don't know what the typical number

[Ben Lindbergh]

of scrubs per launch is, because for those who have not been following this

[Ben Clemens]

as closely as maybe Michael and I,

[Ben Lindbergh]

this is a crewed mission.

[Ben Clemens]

This is. We're going back to the moon, around the moon.

[Michael Bauman]

We're doing Apollo 8 again, going really

[Ben Bauman]

close to the moon.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so this is significant. This has not happened in a while.

[Ben Clemens]

And obviously they're always one after.

[Michael Bauman]

This is going to be the moon landing.

[Ben Clemens]

Whenever we theory, yeah, they're.

[Meg Rowley]

They're glowing up there, but they're not landing.

[Ben Clemens]

No, they're just shooting around and coming back. We hope. But.

[Michael Bauman]

And I don't like your tone about that, Meg. I think you're being a little snooty about mankind leaving low Earth orbit for the first time since 1972.

[Ben Bauman]

I mean, let's be real. If this was on for all mankind, it would blow up in air, but they would somehow fix it also in there.

[Ben Clemens]

Let's not even suggest that that could happen. But look, if we can put a man on the moon, then surely we

[Meg Rowley]

can put a man near a moon.

[Michael Bauman]

I mean, we're putting a woman near the moon now. Imagine that.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay. Back on board. So, I mean, a lot of you guys have been up there. You know, that's fair.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's true. Not as many as I would have liked. But the.

[Ben Clemens]

The gender skew has been. It's been a bit lopsided. It's true. Another way in which we lag behind for all mankind.

[Michael Bauman]

But, I mean, we're gonna. We're gonna get a woman at least 79 of the way to the moon.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You're always gonna get some scrubs in these things. If there's so much as a cloud, if there's so much as a gust of wind, you're gonna wait for the moisture content.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, the.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If there's a lightning bolt 90 miles away, if there's some static electricity and someone shocked themselves anywhere near the launch pad, then you're gonna scrub the launch because you want to be absolutely, absolutely certain.

[Ben Clemens]

There's a lot of expensive hardware at stake, but also in this case, human lives. And so even though it's.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's April 1st, and, hey, I hope

[Ben Clemens]

it goes off without a hitch, I'm guessing that's going to be April Fools, and it will not.

[Michael Bauman]

This is me being optimistic. I mean, it didn't used to be that way back before NASA went woke, we launched Apollo 12 and it got hit by lightning on the way up and we still landed on the moon

[Ben Lindbergh]

anyway and we were fine.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Nothing's ever, ever gone wrong with lunches or landings. So I think they will be careful.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They will exercise the utmost caution and

[Ben Clemens]

that will build in more time for you to have additional hard hit batted balls is what I'm saying.

[Chris Hannell]

I have two questions.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Chris Hannell]

Batted ball, does that count? Foul balls?

[Michael Bauman]

Balls in play.

[Chris Hannell]

It has to be ball in play.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Chris Hannell]

My second thing is the launch window is very wide and if this ends up happening mid game, my, my friend at Baseball Savant is going to be getting a lot of phone calls from me.

[Michael Bauman]

That would, that would be thrill actually. If it comes down to like a matter of minutes, the difference between the launch and the man. Imagine if the ball goes out while Artemis 2 is, is clearing the tower.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Chris Hannell]

I believe Baseball Savant has timestamps on every single event. So I think I can, I think I got that. I think we're good.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This will be like the, the famous

[Ben Clemens]

prediction, Alvin Dark predicting that a man

[Ben Lindbergh]

would land on the moon before Gaylord

[Ben Clemens]

Perry hit a home run and, and then Gaylord Perry hit a home run

[Ben Lindbergh]

like minutes after Apollo 11 landed in a nice bit of serendipity. So yeah, maybe it'll be sort of similar to that.

[Ben Bauman]

Probably not quite as famous.

[Ben Clemens]

Probably not. But it will be among effectively wild listeners.

[Ben Bauman]

Other Ben, these I'm switching to some bold pitching claims. I was at first worried Bauman was going to take maybe both of these, but now definitely not because of their height. So this one, Chase Burns will finish in the top five of SIAM voting. He's 63 so we've ruled that one out.

[Michael Bauman]

He doesn't look as tall as 6 3.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, our predictions can be I suppose internally inconsistent. Right. We can, we can hedge our bets. Bman can, can bank on some mid height guys winning in a different prediction

[Meg Rowley]

if he wants to.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah. Going into this one I was actually worried that, that Michael was going to take a Chase Burns prediction.

[Michael Bauman]

I do love Chase Burns. You were, you were correct to worry.

[Ben Bauman]

So I moved him up early in my order for that reason. But then I heard your Cy Young one and I was like I could have done it later. Why is this bold? Because Chase Burns hasn't pitched in the major leagues yet and he's not currently one of the five best pitchers in the National League. That's, that's pretty straightforward. Uh, this is bold because in the natural course of things he would not But I think it would be really fun if he did. He's super fun to watch. He is. If there was, like, a picks to watch list, he would be very near the top of mine. I. I really like the way he. I like the cut of his jib, so I figured that the right thing to do about that would be to play the flag.

[Michael Bauman]

To be clear, he has pitched in the majors just inconsistently.

[Ben Bauman]

That's. Yeah, that's incorrect. He has not pitched at the level of a top five starter in a major. He's had flashes, for sure, and he

[Michael Bauman]

looked really good for, like, an inning or two. Yeah, yeah. But he.

[Ben Bauman]

He has certainly not established himself as one of the five best starters in the National League. He is. I'm not sure he's established himself as one of the best, you know, like 50 starters in the National League.

[Michael Bauman]

He's barely established himself as one of the five best starters.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I was gonna say. Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

We still project him for eight relief appearances. But the point is, it would be sweet if he got top five Cy Young votes. And so I'm saying it's gonna happen.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Ben Clemens]

Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

Corbin Carroll becomes the fifth 20. 2020. How many 20s? Four 20s, four 20s player in major league history. That is. Chris, for your. No taking 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers, 20 ste. And obviously totals in excess of any of those at 20 would count. For the purposes of this prediction, there have been four other guys who have done it. Frank Shuttle in 1911, Willie Mays in 57, and then Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins in the same season, 2007. So this is bold because. Yeah, it doesn't happen very often. And despite the fact that Corbin is somehow back to dhing after breaking his handmade and having surgery, we don't know how that's gonna come. Potentially compromise him in the campaign to come, but he. He got kind of close last year. So.

[Ben Clemens]

Corwin Carroll, Frank Schulte actually might be Schulte. Not positive. I have heard it both ways. Wildfire. Wildfire Schulte. Yeah, that's right. Some respect on Wildfire's name and nickname.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, me mispronouncing a name is definitely about disrespect and not me being exhausted.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, back to me. All right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I am going to make one about the playoff field and the playoff landscape because my gut sense is that we're

[Ben Clemens]

not going to get a ton of

[Ben Lindbergh]

turnover in the playoff field, or at least we're not going to get a

[Ben Clemens]

ton of what I would label surprise teams, obviously, if I anticipated them making the playoffs, they would not actually qualify

[Ben Lindbergh]

as surprise teams technically.

[Ben Clemens]

So maybe I will be surprised, but

[Ben Lindbergh]

it just doesn't seem like there are that many dark horse candidates or teams that have been bad for a while that suddenly seem ready to make the leap. There are some potential candidates, but. But I would say fewer maybe than in a typical season. So my prediction is that no team that has missed the playoffs for the

[Ben Clemens]

past two or more seasons will make the playoffs this year. Essentially no. No team that has a drought of more than one year will end that drought this year. So essentially more than one year. Well, I don't think the Trout drought is going to end either. That would. That would definitely qualify as a surprise team if the Angels make prediction wrong.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But essentially I'm saying the playoff field will be the same teams as last year with the possible reintroduction of teams

[Ben Clemens]

that made it in 2024 but missed last year. So that would be if the Orioles bounce back or Braves bounce back. Happens if the Mets avoid a collapse, if the Astros make it again, if the Royals make it back. That does not invalidate the prediction, but it does mean that the following 13 teams which have missed for the past couple seasons will continue not to make the playoffs. The Angels, Pirates, Rockies, Nationals, A's, White

[Ben Lindbergh]

Sox, Giants, Cardinals, Rays, Marlins, Twins, Rangers, Diamondbacks. So I'm ruling out 13 teams on almost opening day.

[Ben Clemens]

Take that, Bud Selig. Hope and faith denied for all of you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And this is somewhat bold, I think, because some of those teams are actually pretty good.

[Ben Clemens]

And individually, I think each of those teams them saying won't make the playoffs,

[Ben Lindbergh]

doesn't project to make the playoffs.

[Ben Clemens]

But collectively it's pretty dicey. In fact, at first I thought about saying teams that made it two years

[Ben Lindbergh]

ago could come back in, which would allow the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Twins, Marlins and Rays in the mix.

[Ben Clemens]

But that's not bold enough. So, no, they are excluded also. That's my big market.

[Michael Bauman]

Ben, over here.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

Yes.

[Ben Clemens]

And maybe this will bring about a

[Ben Lindbergh]

extended work stoppage and a salary cap

[Ben Clemens]

and the monkey's paw will curl and what have I done? But probably not. All right, back to Bauman.

[Michael Bauman]

All right. Out of all of the former number one overall picks in the majors this year, the one who will hit the most home runs is mickeymoniac.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Okay. Remind.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Remind everyone who who the the player pool is.

[Michael Bauman]

Position players include probably Travis Bazana, Jackson Holiday, Henry Davis, Spencer Torkelson, Adley Rutchman, Royce Lewis, Moniac Dansby, SW, Carlos Correa and Bryce Harper. That does not include pitchers such as Garrett Cole and Paul Skeens. Skeens, of course, was a position player in college, so maybe he gets the bat out and hits 30 pinch hit home runs. But Moniac, I was writing about this in, in the positional power rankings for dh, which I think will come out at some point. I hope so.

[Meg Rowley]

But he set to go on Friday.

[Michael Bauman]

Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

Some subtext there, boy. No, I'm just doubting.

[Michael Bauman]

I don't know what day it is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We'll see.

[Michael Bauman]

I just know when my deadline was. I don't know what happens in the interregnum. I met the deadline. That's. You did. It's. That's out of my hands now. So Moniac was drafted as this quarter, sort of on base, table setting, contact hitting, center fielder. And he's turned into like a bit of a hacker power guy. And to say nothing of the fact he plays in Coors Field. So he hit 24 home runs last year. The leader among those number one overall draft selections and home runs was Spencer Torkelson at 31. Dansby Swanson I think hit 24. Harper hit 27. So Moniac is like right in there and I think we're like one hot streak away from, from him being a better home run hitter, at least for one season, than a couple of guys we think of as having like serious back power.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, Coors Field, he's got that going for him. That's fun.

[Ben Clemens]

I do like the idea of Paul Skedin just saying, I'll do it myself.

[Michael Bauman]

Just I've. I've prayed for it every night before bed for the past three years and God is not listening.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, other Ben, this one is also

[Ben Bauman]

a pitcher who is between 6 foot and 6 foot 5. So. And I think this would get him, say, young votes as well. So I guess I'm just picking against Michael again. Zach Gallen will bounce back big with a season of 150 or more innings pitched and also an ERA of three and a quarter or lower. So why is that bold? Because he's almost never done it. Even though he's been really good in the past, he's done this once in his career, A very good career. I love Zach Gallen. I was actually sad not to get to make a prediction about Gallen last year. I kind of had a few that I didn't do, so I figured I'd make one and then. Then he was terrible last year, so a little easier. I. I've written about Gall a lot and what I've always said is it's really hard to figure out what went wrong because always you would look at gallon and go, well, if you look at the, like, the stuff and command stuff, numbers, he should not be succeeding. And then he. He was. And then he continued to look like he couldn't do it and stopped being able to do it. So I don't actually know how he's going to get back to doing it. But a good pitching Gallon is great, and it's one of those things where. Where it's way more than the sum of his parts. Right. He throws like five, like, kind of bad pitches. His best pitch on our models is not very good, but the. The way that they all work together is awesome. So I invite you all to follow along with Zach Gallen this year. Hope he bounces back. But even if it's not likely, he's super fun to watch. So this is kind of a. I'll get to watch a bunch of Zach Allen starts by predicting this.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, I. I wouldn't be miffed even, you know, with you picking against my short guys and tall guys thing. But you're. Even if I were, I really appreciate how hard you're going for guys from New Jersey in your first couple rounds with Zach Allen and Kyle Teal.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, maybe that's the theme. It's not. It's not.

[Michael Bauman]

I was terrified that I had accidentally

[Ben Clemens]

stumbled upon it, but you could get

[Ben Lindbergh]

yourself a free Frank Graph subscription. That'd be nice.

[Michael Bauman]

No, Ben told me not to guess, so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay. All right, Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

The Pirates will finish. Finish in second place in the NL Central, but will not make the playoffs.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, how could they with every team from the AL east getting it?

[Meg Rowley]

Well, they play in the National League, so that probably.

[Michael Bauman]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

I don't know. It's bold. It's the Pirates second place in the Central. Even the Central. Come on. Why? You're all just stunned that I would predict something like that. You're like, wow, that is too bold to make it a compound.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You are fan graphic.

[Ben Clemens]

And fangraphs is currently predicting this, I think.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, really?

[Ben Clemens]

I think so.

[Meg Rowley]

Hey, I was busy editing Michael's blurbs for. No, thanks. No, I haven't gotten to your blurbs. That's everybody. It'll come later in the day.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I remember.

[Ben Clemens]

I remember questioning the boldness of when you said that the A's would finished second last year, I think. And. And then that turned out to be

[Ben Lindbergh]

fairly bold because they weren't as good as I thought maybe they could be.

[Ben Clemens]

They kind of salvaged it, but they did not finish second, clearly. So I will. I will withhold my judgment, but the boldness.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, the funniest outcome in all of this is that the Pirates make the playoffs thanks to 10.2 WAR from Connor Griffin and 11 more from Jake Mangum, who wins MVP, preventing Shohei Ohtani from winning MVP despite a scion.

[Meg Rowley]

Now I'm prediction season. Now I'm rooting for that.

[Ben Clemens]

Well, I have some Pirates predictions too, but not that one. Not that one. No, I. I think. Well, I won't. I won't give away anything else what I think about the Pirates, but okay, I will say that at least four players with lowest quartile of first quartile sprint speed steal 30 plus bases. So last last year we had two. Two famously, Juan Soto tied for the National League lead and Josh Naylor, of course. And they Both had comfortably first quartile sprint speed, by which I mean I guess 25th percentile or below. And I guess they could both repeat. But it might be harder this time because they won't really have the element of surprise. I think probably it took teams a while to catch on to wait, these

[Ben Lindbergh]

guys are base dealers now, so it might be harder for them to do

[Ben Clemens]

that without elite or even average speed. Then again, I guess maybe they learned something from that experience. But I think that they will inspire copycats. So I don't know whether they will do this again. And for all I know they will

[Ben Lindbergh]

say, well, I checked off that box. That was a story I can tell the rest of my life and I

[Ben Clemens]

don't need to do that again. But other players who are similarly unfleet of foot will be inspired by their success and will try to swipe 30 themselves.

[Michael Bauman]

My fifth prediction by the end of this season, the website archive of our own. Has anybody heard of this website?

[Chris Hannell]

Oh my God.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Already apprehensive about where this is going.

[Michael Bauman]

It's a clearinghouse for those of you who are not familiar with it. For fan fiction stories, it will have at least, least 10 entries of erotic fan fiction about Giants manager Tony Vitello. Or it will have at least one entry of erotic fan fiction about Tony Vitello and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh boy.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, the famous Tony slash Kyle fiction.

[Ben Bauman]

Wait, wait, Michael. What if you write.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh yeah, he can't write it.

[Michael Bauman]

I'm not. I. I promise, promise I will not do.

[Chris Hannell]

He can. The rules specifically state he can. But if he's. He's saying he won't, we'll never know.

[Michael Bauman]

Because the Tony Vitello Kyle Shanahan slash Vic. I'm not sure I can. I'm not sure my gifts in the literary space extend to.

[Ben Bauman]

Would you say it's Vitanahan?

[Ben Clemens]

Ooh, yeah, I think so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Probably.

[Ben Bauman]

Chanello is not bad either.

[Michael Bauman]

A little peek behind the proverbial curse curtain. I came up with nine of these predictions in the past 20 or past 24 to 48 hours. And this one I've been sitting on since about 10 minutes after the Giants were first rumored to be hiring Tony Vitello. So much so that the Kyle Shanahan was originally going to be Pat Burrell, but he does not appear to still be in the Giants organization.

[Meg Rowley]

I. I really enjoy the fact that I now have a. An explanation. Your reaction to that hiring like in. In copy was not hornier because I was like, this is pretty not horny. For Bauman writing on. On Tony. I'm surprised.

[Michael Bauman]

I mean, I so like I've interviewed him. Like, I try to be professional about people who I'm gonna encounter at work. Not so on this podcast, I guess. But I'm just banking on. There being one super horny four, you know, four team San Francisco Bay Area sports fan with an AO3 account.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. All right.

[Ben Clemens]

Well, it'll be hard to establish that

[Ben Lindbergh]

this is not some sort of sock

[Ben Clemens]

puppet, some sort of alt that you have created your AO3 burner.

[Michael Bauman]

But you'll have to take my word for it. I will have to take your word for it. Make my solemn vow. However, if anybody out there listening wants to try their hand at it.

[Chris Hannell]

Yeah, this is. This is the prediction. That's the revenge for the Colonels baseball player Star wars universe game from last. Last season.

[Ben Bauman]

Season.

[Michael Bauman]

You don't have to like monitor Chris. You just have to go.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Just check it once. Like.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, you have to check it once.

[Chris Hannell]

I've managed to never visit this website and now that's. Yeah, that's. That's all over now.

[Ben Clemens]

I mean, you're. You're missing out on a. Well, apparently wonderful fan fiction.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It didn't have to be erotic. I mean, there's plenty of non erotic,

[Ben Clemens]

but I know it did.

[Michael Bauman]

It did.

[Ben Clemens]

Well, yes, for you. I. I knew where your head was gonna go, so to speak. But that's. That's why I kind of of groaned when you mentioned Archive of our Own. But I'm just saying.

[Michael Bauman]

And I hope. I hope people will groan while reading it, so to speak.

[Ben Lindbergh]

God, that would be the goal, I guess.

[Ben Clemens]

Too much.

[Ben Lindbergh]

There are only three AO3.

[Ben Clemens]

Pat Burrow works, which I mean, to to kind of calibrate expectations here. You said 10, right?

[Ben Lindbergh]

So.

[Ben Clemens]

So, yeah. I mean, there's. There's three Pat the Bat entries, and

[Ben Lindbergh]

evidently Gabe Kapler zero tags on AO3.

[Michael Bauman]

That doesn't surprise me. Gabe Kapler is so orientated towards the male gaze.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes, thank you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Which is not to suggest that.

[Michael Bauman]

And my. My sense of pat burl is like, why would you bother writing fiction about Batman?

[Ben Clemens]

The reality already just suffices.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But. But, yeah, I mean, well, you could have male gaze going on on AO3, right?

[Ben Clemens]

I mean, you're not limiting any.

[Michael Bauman]

That's true. I don't mean to be sexist about.

[Meg Rowley]

We are saying gays, as in to look upon.

[Michael Bauman]

Yes, yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But it works either way.

[Ben Clemens]

But evidently, saying the Gabe distinction, it has not happened.

[Meg Rowley]

So people heard the ice cream story with Gabe, and they were out. They're like, yeah,

[Michael Bauman]

Gabe Kapler was the. Everyone hot. Nobody's horny of different managers.

[Chris Hannell]

Okay, so let me just make sure I have the wording of this correct.

[Ben Bauman]

By the end.

[Chris Hannell]

By the end of this season, the website archive of our own will have at least 10 entries of erotic fan fiction about Giants manager Tony Vitello. Or at least one entry of erotic fan fiction about Vitello and Kyle Shanahan.

[Michael Bauman]

Yes.

[Ben Clemens]

All right, all right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The other.

[Ben Clemens]

The problem here is that even if

[Ben Lindbergh]

you don't, you don't put your thumb on the scale. All that has to happen for this to come true is for one listener

[Ben Clemens]

to this podcast to write a Vitanahan entry. I mean, then. Then you win. Right?

[Ben Lindbergh]

So that.

[Michael Bauman]

Fingers crossed.

[Ben Clemens]

I feel like that's a lock.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Almost like someone's gonna make that come true for you.

[Ben Clemens]

I think it doesn't even have to be good.

[Michael Bauman]

I mean, I haven't spent my entire professional career living in mortal fear of your crazy fans to not profit from it every so often.

[Ben Clemens]

Hey, said with affection.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Dedicated fans. Enthusiastic fans. Eager.

[Michael Bauman]

Sure.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Affectionate.

[Michael Bauman]

Dedicated is way better.

[Chris Hannell]

All I'm All I'm saying is, as someone who has a pretty good knowledge of what this community looks like, I would move the slider to the right. That's all I'm saying.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And look, you know, I'd say let's let this be a natural experiment. And, I mean, I guess the prediction encompasses.

[Michael Bauman]

And that's not a. That's not a bad first line for a Vitana.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm just saying there's a lot of potential for manipulation here. And the predictions have always, I guess,

[Ben Clemens]

allowed for that, technically, so it wouldn't really be breaking the letter of the law. But I do think it's not in the spirit. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I'm, you know, I resent the

[Michael Bauman]

implication like my thumbs are going to be in plain sight all season.

[Ben Lindbergh]

No, I'm not suggesting you. I'm just suggesting a list listener.

[Ben Bauman]

That's another way that the article could start.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't think you could fake it if you try. I think, I think your prose is so identifiable.

[Michael Bauman]

It would be like the Unabomber letter.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If you, if you cut it out with magazine letters and mailed it in. I think we would still know.

[Meg Rowley]

Take as a headline. And yes, they'd be like, it would

[Ben Lindbergh]

still be a dead giveaway.

[Ben Clemens]

That's a Bauman line right there.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So I don't think you could fake it if you tried. I'm just our listeners, you know, let

[Ben Clemens]

the experiment play out as opposed to making it come true, so to speak. Yourself. Okay.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah. My next, my next ones are about, you know, subverting expectations like getting bolder is what I'm hoping to do. This one. Marcus Semian will turn back the clock and fight aging by leading all major league second baseman in defensive innings at second base this year at the age of 35.

[Meg Rowley]

I like it.

[Ben Bauman]

That's like pretty rare. Yeah, that's not really how this tends to work because when you're old you don't play as much. That's why it's bold. The reason that it's even worth predicting is that of all the people you could imagine, this is the guy most likely to do it because he's very durable. He was not in 2025. He was durable for a 34 year old in 2025 but he did not finish first in defensive innings or even second. He also missed a lot of games and the Mets have stated that they are going to hope to manage his innings more. So we Project him for 149 games this year which is like the first time it hasn't been 160 in a long time. So it can happen. And yeah, honestly I think this is one of my more likely picks but it's pretty unlikely. I think just because he's old, not because he doesn't want to, but because I think that the team will try to not let him.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

It's kind of like Ohtani winning the Cy Young. He has the talent but the Dodgers

[Ben Lindbergh]

might skip him from time to time

[Ben Clemens]

to want to keep him fresh. He's still a two way player etc so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But I'd say to reduce the Perceived

[Ben Clemens]

boldness because that's in the. My best interest. Yes, it's. It's historically unusual for this to happen, I guess, but it's quite common for Marcus Semyon to do it.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Ben Clemens]

He did it as recently as 2024 and 2023 and 2022.

[Ben Bauman]

2. But not 2021. He was the guy and then he kind of hit a bump. So the question is, can he fight the passage of time to regain his previous level?

[Ben Clemens]

Right.

[Ben Bauman]

On a new team where the replacement level is perhaps higher.

[Chris Hannell]

Is this leading all MLB second basemen that their primary.

[Ben Bauman]

I said innings played at second base. Okay.

[Chris Hannell]

So they have to be a primary second basement and lead at their base.

[Ben Bauman]

They do not have to be a primary second bas.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Just innings standing at second base. Yeah, actually physically there.

[Ben Bauman]

Although to. To lead. To lead this. You will be a primary.

[Michael Bauman]

You will.

[Ben Clemens]

Yes, it's true, but it's not a

[Meg Rowley]

condition edition of the prediction.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah.

[Chris Hannell]

Thank you.

[Ben Bauman]

But it's defensive innings at second base, Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

People were underwhelmed by my Pirates pick. And so now I feel

[Ben Bauman]

your most recent one, the Connor Griffin one, was both.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Chris Hannell]

I would have said something, but I was told to lurk.

[Meg Rowley]

Thanks, Chris.

[Chris Hannell]

No problem.

[Meg Rowley]

Not the you not talking that you being supportive. I appreciate it, buddy. Okay. Michael Garcia will lead the Royals in war. Take that. Take that.

[Ben Bauman]

Oh, I love this one, Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

Thank you. I love.

[Ben Bauman]

Can I like support.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Chris, I told you that we shouldn't do any new mechanics in future years, but maybe we should have like a thumbs up and thumbs down, you know, like to. On each other's ballots. I, I don't. I don't mean this in. In any way to disrespect Bobby Witt Jr. Who I, you know, like my, my favorite thing about the wbc. Well, there were a couple of things that were ahead of. Of wit, but just the. The early March reminder of how good Bobby Wood Jr. Is. Amazing. Spectacular. But you know what? Michael Garcia is really great. And I think that like the gains he had at the plate last year are real. It does seem like a real change to the swing in a way that's important. And I. He's such a good defender, as everyone always says. He would just be the ro. Starting shortstop. That's hard to say if it were not for the presence of wit. So I think that he is spectacular in the field and you know, he's going to carry the good vibes of the WBC through the whole season and he's going to out war Wit I'm not putting any conditions on how it happens. I would like to say in the presence of the baseball gods. This is not me wishing anything bad happening to Bobby Wood Jr. I don't want him to, like, pull hammy or. Or decided to change careers, injure his

[Michael Bauman]

wrist while perusing AO3.

[Ben Clemens]

Jesus Christ.

[Meg Rowley]

Do you think they let the royals look at AO3? I think they're worried.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They're just, like, not on Dayton War's watch.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, it'd be like the Jeff Kent truck washing incident.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, my God.

[Ben Bauman]

I was on AO2.

[Meg Rowley]

That's great. That's great.

[Ben Lindbergh]

During the Dayton war years, you needed a VP VPN to access sites like that from Royals facilities. Probably.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. They were very. They were very serious, but yeah. Michael Garcia, future Royals war leader. Let's go.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay. Yeah, I mean, I guess he only

[Ben Lindbergh]

has one guy standing in his way, really.

[Ben Clemens]

I mean, of course, you know, there are lots of other Royals too, but. Yes, like, something.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The reason why it's kind of a

[Ben Clemens]

dark prediction is that, like, something has to Befall Bobby Witt Jr. Basically.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Or. Or Michael Garcia just. Yeah, Michael Garcia is just the best player baseball. It could happen. And Bobby Wood as good as usual

[Meg Rowley]

to the baseball gods. And you're out here like, coming up, he's gonna get struck by lightning. He's gonna become tooth pastor.

[Ben Lindbergh]

By far, the most likely way that this could come true is if Bobby Witt Jr gets hurt or has a

[Ben Clemens]

bad year or something.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right?

[Meg Rowley]

He doesn't have a bad year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, he might just have a bad year.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, he could forget how to field. We haven't seen any recent evidence of that. He looks spectacular in the wbc. But maybe he'll forget, you know, maybe he'll bump his head after.

[Ben Bauman]

Wait, here's a. Here's a much less grim one, too. Maybe he'll feel just like always, but the models will disagree on how good he is at that fielding.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

See, like, they always seem to and say that he's terrible this year.

[Meg Rowley]

There you go.

[Ben Bauman]

No obvious reason instead of grade.

[Meg Rowley]

See, this is why other Ben's the better Ben. You know I'm kidding. You're both wondering.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's just. It's because I got triggered recently by

[Ben Clemens]

a Michael Garcia breakout prediction. And of course, I've been steaming about that ever since.

[Meg Rowley]

Because he was a breakout candidate.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, because obviously.

[Meg Rowley]

Save it. I got.

[Ben Clemens]

I'm not going to. No, I'm just saying you got to keep this moving.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He was by far the second most valuable player on the Royals last Year.

[Ben Clemens]

So like yeah, it's the competition is. But it's mainly one guy.

[Meg Rowley]

But I don't want people to, to. To maybe just Jack.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Jack will have his, his.

[Meg Rowley]

That's a bridge far. He could break out but he's not going to be. He's not going to surpass Bobby Witt Jr. If, if Jack Gag Leone has more war than Bobby Wood Jr. In 2026 then I think Bobby Wood Jr. Is dead. You know, disrespect.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, I will pick.

[Ben Clemens]

What will I pick? Okay, here's one. One. There are nine new major league managers this year which is I think a

[Ben Lindbergh]

record that's a modern era record. I don't think I really even need to stipulate modern era or I don't

[Ben Clemens]

know, maybe like the first season of the league I guess maybe.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But even then there weren't as many teams so there are a lot of

[Ben Clemens]

new managers is what I'm saying. So my prediction is that one of the nine new managers will be fired before the end. End of the season.

[Meg Rowley]

That's very good.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And, and by season I will include

[Ben Clemens]

postseason just like presumably one of these guys is not going to get fired after having made the postseason. But just to allow for. I'm not saying they have to be fired before the regular season concludes. If they're fired the day after or something that still counts. But one of the nine new guys will be fired.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess we could say just by

[Ben Clemens]

the time time we do the recap pod. By the time the awards come out though, you know, if you're going to get fired it's probably going to be right after the season as opposed to November or something. But there are a bunch of candidates, right? Because maybe it turns out that hiring a college coach doesn't work out that well and there is some sort of actual scandal not related to archive of our own and maybe, maybe Tony Vitello crashes and burns. I don't think that's going to happen. I'm just saying there's a little more

[Ben Lindbergh]

uncertainty when it comes to a unprecedented hire like that could. Could go wrong.

[Meg Rowley]

I do like that you're pegging Tony's potential.

[Ben Clemens]

I like that. Come on, Meg.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Phrasing. We're not doing phrasing anymore. But I'm not even saying he's the likeliest candidate that would probably be be Kurt Suzuki who is of course on

[Ben Clemens]

a one year deal and also the

[Ben Lindbergh]

manager of the Angels. But you know there were some surprising managerial hires.

[Ben Clemens]

Vello and Suzuki and, and you know, Stammon and there's going to be a Padre sale.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Probably. Who knows? Maybe they clean house, they bring in someone else. There's a new manager.

[Ben Clemens]

Whatever.

[Ben Lindbergh]

There are nine candidates.

[Ben Clemens]

I'm just saying something goes wrong for one of them and he loses his job.

[Michael Bauman]

Munataka Murakami will have more strikeouts than any member of the White Socks has hits.

[Meg Rowley]

This is so mean. I like it.

[Ben Bauman]

So.

[Michael Bauman]

But to who?

[Meg Rowley]

Right?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, everyone.

[Michael Bauman]

Everyone. Yeah, you're right.

[Meg Rowley]

Everyone. Okay.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Are you. Are you doubting Coulson Montgomery's capacity to. Well, I guess.

[Ben Clemens]

I mean he could rival rival Murakami strikeouts, but this is about hits really. So.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, I just don't think. I mean like there are some White Sox players.

[Ben Clemens]

I like Kyle Teal.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, I mean he's gonna miss some time, but. And also he's. He's a catcher. Yeah, he may have good race, but I just. I'm slamming the under on Murakami and just generally I still.

[Ben Clemens]

Which I still want to believe.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, I want to believe, but I think it's going to be ugly. I think like it could take like a 200 hit season.

[Ben Bauman]

I don't want to pour too much cold water on this, Michael, but Murakami is projected for 60 more strikeouts than any white sock is projected for hits.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I was going to say like

[Ben Clemens]

Murakami could actually be pretty good and still have this come true or Murakami could get hurt. High strikeout slugger.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, this is with us projecting for a 120 WRC plus but he could get hurt for sure.

[Ben Clemens]

This condition could be satisfied and it doesn't mean that he was terrible.

[Michael Bauman]

But I'm going. So I will say generally I'm going a little more conservative this year because I came very close to getting shut out last season.

[Ben Bauman]

Oh yeah, yeah. That's fair.

[Michael Bauman]

And that was not a good feeling.

[Ben Clemens]

So yeah, unlike you to. To pull back a bit. But yeah. Okay.

[Ben Bauman]

Other Ben, I'm gonna go back to the NL Central. That's a fun division and say the. That the leader in the brewers outfield war will be not Jack Centurio, international superstar and WBC winner, but Sal Frelich has at times played full seasons before.

[Meg Rowley]

Why wasn't he on team Italy?

[Ben Bauman]

Great question. I really wanted to say international WBC breakout Salf relic. And then I was like that's not true.

[Meg Rowley]

That's not true.

[Ben Bauman]

It's really disappointing for some truth in advertising. This happened last year for the Jackson Churio in 2025. I'm not going to try to mislead you that that didn't happen, but that was by far the best year of his career. And it. Cheerio was, you know, largely considered to have massively underperformed his expected metrics. He is projected to be much better than Freilich this year. And of course, the brewers would vastly prefer to give, you know, the. The quantum of playing time to Cheerio over Freilich.

[Ben Clemens]

So is that the new Bond movie?

[Ben Bauman]

But I'm saying, saying, like, if they have an incremental plate appearance to hand out, like, Cheerio is much higher in their hierarchy, of course, because he's their best player and they want to be the best player. So I think this is not impossible. Obviously, it just happened. But I think it's unlikely just because of who they are, what the projections are, their ages and their relative health and whatnot. I think it would be really fun if it happened, though. I wanted to add that I would still rank Jackson Cheerio higher in trade value, but that felt unfair because. Because, like, even if Frelick outperforms him again, people will definitely still think Trio is better. Like, that could happen for four years in a row, and I think they'd still think that. But I think it's really fascinating because Trio has never really quite hit it big. You know, he's like, okay, he's really interesting. Whereas a lot of the guys in the brewers kind of have in recent years. But I think Cheerio still projects the best by a mile, and I find that fascinating.

[Meg Rowley]

James Paxton will pitch an affiliated ball this year. Yeah, he looked great in the wbc.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It would be a waste if he

[Meg Rowley]

did good in the wbc.

[Michael Bauman]

Like somebody tells Zach Crab.

[Ben Clemens]

I know he was.

[Meg Rowley]

He was. He was throwing heat. He. The body looks great. Is James Paxton technically retired? I mean, I think he. He said he planned to retire. I don't know if a transaction went through. Has he not pitched in affiliated ball since 2024? Yeah. Is he made of candy glass also? Yes. So this is bold. But he also looked so good. He looked so good.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

You're telling. You're telling me. You're telling me that. I don't know who I've even fighting with. I'm so tired. I'm so tired. Anyway, James Bags is going to pitch an inflated ball this year. Okay, great.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That would be exciting because. Yeah, I've messaged my former former ringer

[Ben Clemens]

MLB cohorts Bauman and Cram and Bobby Wagner after that star appearance for Team Canada.

[Meg Rowley]

So good for Team Canada.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Because it was.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We had a running bit on the

[Ben Clemens]

ringer MLB show where Cram always thought that Paxton was going to be great and Bowman always thought that Lancelin was going to be great. And there was a Lancelin vs. Paxton undercurrent, heated debate going on for years and usually Paxton would get hurt after Zach got seduced by the whiffs and the stuff. And then Bauman would just ride Lance Lynn to his typical 180 innings of pretty good ball.

[Meg Rowley]

But enough about fan fiction.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But Lance Lynn has sailed off into

[Michael Bauman]

the sunsets and having already dominated the WBC three years ago, if anything, James Paxton's just getting there late.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, it's, it's Paxton's time.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, back to me, right? All right.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, how about this?

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm going to predict that Justin Verlander will have the best age 43 or older season by a non Nolan Ryan non knuckle slash spitballer. And this is specifically for starting pitchers.

[Ben Clemens]

I should make clear. So he will be the best starting

[Ben Lindbergh]

pitcher ever in a single season at his age or older, who is not named Nolan Ryan and who did not

[Ben Clemens]

cheat Father Time by throwing a knuckleball or a spitball.

[Michael Bauman]

So I have questions.

[Meg Rowley]

How are you?

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, you have questions.

[Meg Rowley]

Are you defining best?

[Michael Bauman]

How many knuckleballs would Justin Berliter have to throw in order to invalidate this?

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think. Well, I meant it when more as a non primary regular. If he works in one just for fun, I don't think put a number on it. I think he'd have to throw 10%

[Ben Clemens]

or more knuckleballs for him to be a real knuckleballer.

[Michael Bauman]

Second, how many times would he have to be get caught using sticky stuff in order to knock out as a spitballer?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Sticky stuff is, is okay. Sticky stuff is acceptable.

[Ben Clemens]

I mean it's not for, for mlb. But no, if, if he uses spider tack or something go back to the old Astros days, then I, I think that that's, that's okay for the purposes of this prediction, any other kind of cheating is acceptable.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, so.

[Michael Bauman]

So if he takes his shirt off and has the Eddie Harris like Bartol Vagisil, that's, that's cool. That's not spitbally.

[Meg Rowley]

I don't know that I needed Vagisil to appear on the pod today.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, I mean look, if he were caught not with some sort of vaseline substance and he was, I, I know. I think even if he was doctoring,

[Ben Clemens]

if he's not literally spitting, I think. Okay, yeah, if the substance is not

[Ben Lindbergh]

produced by his own body and well

[Meg Rowley]

that's not specific enough.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, Vaseline based.

[Chris Hannell]

Are we measuring by fan graphs?

[Ben Bauman]

War.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, we are measuring by fan graphs.

[Ben Clemens]

War. And we are measuring.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Measuring starting pitching.

[Ben Clemens]

I'm. I'm saying starting pitcher only. So if you were to say, shift to the bullpen and become a bullpen

[Ben Lindbergh]

ace or something, I guess that probably still wouldn't count. So I'm saying best starting pitcher season. So what this boils down to basically

[Ben Clemens]

the number to beat. Because the best starting pitcher wore VFM graphs for an age 43 or older pitcher. Nolan Ryan 1995.2 War. And then Nolan Ryan 1991. 4.9 War. War. And then Jack Quinn 1928.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The ageless Jack Quinn 4 War.

[Ben Clemens]

But he was one of the last legal spitballers. They banned the spitball. And then Jack Quinn was like, what if I just keep pitching forever though? You'll never get rid of this thing. And so I think he was the

[Ben Lindbergh]

second to last legal spitballer. I think Burley Grimes outlasted him by a year. Yeah, but Jack Quinn was benefiting from the spitball legally. And then Syl Need Grace comes in fourth at.

[Ben Clemens]

At 3.8 the Knuckler. So the number to beat, really it. That's 84 for. For Nico, which was not his age, though he looked at at times that was the year. But Randy Johnson, the big unit 2008 for the Diamondbacks before his.

[Ben Lindbergh]

His final swan song Giants year, which it looked like last year might be for Verlander, but no, Randy Johnson had

[Ben Clemens]

3.6 Fangraphs were in 2008. So that's the number to beat. He has to, I guess top 3.6.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And look, it's a long shot, but I think it's possible because he basically

[Ben Clemens]

pitched at this pace for half of last season, like over his last, you know, starting in early June, like his last 15 starts, he was pitching at roughly this. This pace.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So not saying he can necessarily sustain that.

[Ben Clemens]

He's even older now.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But maybe it'll be the fountain of youth homecoming. He's going back to Detroit. Presumably he'll be pitching in games that matter and for a playoff spot.

[Ben Clemens]

And maybe he'll be energized by going home again and he will tap into the old young Verlander and best big Randy. So that's my prediction. I like that I end all my predictions by saying that's my prediction.

[Ben Bauman]

Jack Quinn and Austin Hedges have basically the same career batting average. I just thought you guys might be curious Wikipedia page and decided I should look this up.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Ben Clemens]

Bman.

[Michael Bauman]

All right. The A's will give out at least $100 million more dollars in contract extensions this season. Meaning before we reconvene.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay, I guess this could be. This could be imminent. This could happen any day now. Maybe. Who knows? This is peak extension season.

[Michael Bauman]

If they get Nick Kurts to bite, they get Shay Langers to make bite. I don't know who else they have coming up. Leo De. They call him up. Say, here's $100 million.

[Ben Clemens]

Yep.

[Michael Bauman]

There are many paths to victory here.

[Meg Rowley]

Leo De looks great in spring.

[Ben Clemens]

Oh, my God.

[Meg Rowley]

Heard me good.

[Ben Clemens]

Justin Ferlander looked great the other day, too. He still got it. Okay, all right.

[Michael Bauman]

How much older is Justin Verlander than Leo De?

[Meg Rowley]

An entire lifetime.

[Ben Bauman]

One Leo De. Yeah, more than.

[Ben Clemens]

More than one Leo.

[Michael Bauman]

Justin Verlander is Leo De grandfather.

[Meg Rowley]

It's Leo dead.

[Ben Bauman]

Okay, back to Ben. Okay, we're going increasingly bold now. Carrie Carpenter will post the weighted runs created plus of 120 or higher against left handed pitching.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That is okay.

[Ben Bauman]

I mean, this is like insane.

[Ben Clemens]

This hasn't really happened.

[Ben Lindbergh]

No more Mr. Platoon for me.

[Michael Bauman]

I mean, if you want that, you should probably. Probably put some money down on Carrie Carpenter for ALMVP.

[Ben Clemens]

Can this be what I'm saying in like 10 plate appearances?

[Meg Rowley]

Well, do you need a plate appearance minimum?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

Why don't we look at his actual past years? His actual Highest before is 89. He's never come close to this. And the most he's gotten in a year is. Why don't we say minimum of like, I don't know, know, 50. Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

Just as long as we're ruling out.

[Ben Bauman]

I don't mind getting proven wrong, but he's.

[Ben Clemens]

He gets a hit on opening day and then he gets hurt or something.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, he's topped 50 more. Why don't we say 40? Because he's topped 40 more often than not, it looks like. And he doesn't bat that much against lefties anyway. But this would be, like, wildly out of character for him. He is Mr. Platoon. His career batting line against righties is scintillating. 140 WRC plus, like MVP candidate. And his career diversity plus against lefties is 70. It's not very good. He's not very good at this.

[Michael Bauman]

I'm like, I understand the platoon advantage, but like, how did. How does that mess you up that much?

[Ben Bauman]

It's truly shocking. He hits for no power. No power at all. Like against lefties, he doesn't strike out less or walk. He strikes out less against lefties. And Walks the same amount and he's this much worse. Like the true talent split might be worse.

[Michael Bauman]

Is he like blind in his right eye or something?

[Ben Bauman]

Maybe he has karate conus like Tommy fan. That. That definitely messed with fam's ability to see some types of pitches for a while. Um, but it's wild, right? Yeah, but yeah. 120 WRC plus or higher and a minimum, minimum of 40 plate appearances against left handing, left handed pitching for Carrie Carpenter. Love it.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

Wow.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right, Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

Bryce Tang will finish in the top five in NL MVP voting.

[Ben Bauman]

I like that one a lot. I've heard enough times in the last week that he's incredibly underrated and enough. Not enough people have seen him to think that he's no longer underrated. He's properly rated.

[Meg Rowley]

Was John Smoltz one of those people who told you though? Because that's going to make me feel bad about myself.

[Ben Bauman]

Absolutely. But I think John Smoltz had never seen Bryce Turang before he won.

[Meg Rowley]

I mean, barely paid attention to him while he was on the field in all likelihood.

[Ben Bauman]

That's what I'm saying. I. I think you're good there.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay.

[Ben Bauman]

He was like, wow, this guy's great. Holy crap.

[Meg Rowley]

The thing about Smoltz in the WBC was that I was like, do you have any idea what the end of your sentence is before you start it? Like just like the. Trailing off for a minute.

[Michael Bauman]

It does. Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Coming back, I was just like, buddy, what are we. Surely there's golf to be played that

[Ben Clemens]

can be entertaining in some hands or mouths, but less so in small.

[Ben Bauman]

I was begging when he specifically said that he likes arise more than guys who hit the ball 120 miles an hour but strike out 150 more times that he would just continue the thought long enough for Aaron Judge to bat.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

The same game.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

But it got lost somewhere in translation.

[Meg Rowley]

It did. It did. But yeah, like, I think that. I think Turang's pretty good. You know, I think he's pretty good. Although it was. He was like kind of flub probably throne in the field in the WBC in a. In a way that I was kind of surprised by.

[Ben Bauman]

He had a rough 20, 25 fielding. I remember from my voting. But I still think he's great.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, I still think he's good and I think he'll finish in the top five. He was like a top 15 vote getter, I think last year. So we got some votes. But I think he's gonna make a big leap and people are gonna be like, Bryce to ring and then we're all gonna have to remember how to spell Bryce. All the braces, all the J. Jarrett's. Garrett.

[Ben Clemens]

I do better with Bryce's than with some of the others.

[Ben Bauman]

Zach is the one for me.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Zach.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Zach's yeah. Should just lop off the fourth letter in all the Zacks and just make

[Ben Lindbergh]

them all Zach I am going to do one of my Pirates predictions and

[Ben Clemens]

it'll be kind of the polar opposite

[Ben Lindbergh]

of the Verlander prediction, an old pitcher prediction. This will be more of a young pitcher prediction and I am going to

[Ben Clemens]

predict that the Pittsburgh Pirates amass the

[Ben Lindbergh]

most WAR by starting pitchers. Now there are going to be a

[Ben Clemens]

few qualifiers here, but brace yourself.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The most war by starting pitchers 30 or younger who never pitched previously for another team.

[Ben Clemens]

So they are career Pirates and I'll say in at least half a century that's I wish I could do it like divisional ERA or something, but it

[Ben Lindbergh]

doesn't quite cleanly match up that way. But I'm going to say they in in more than half a century they

[Ben Clemens]

will have the Most starting pitcher war amassed by pitchers 30 or younger who never previously pitched for another team. And so the number to beat Here basically is 18.18.0 Fan graphs were thank you to Michael Mountain, Patreon supporter, for stat blasting this for me.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I will share a spreadsheet for anyone

[Ben Clemens]

who cares to see it, but the 2018 Met accrued 18 war from Jacob

[Ben Lindbergh]

deGrom, Zach Wheeler, Zach with a K Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Seth Lugo, Matt Harvey, Chris Flexen, Drew Gagnon. How do you I don't even remember how to say. Ganyon, PJ Conlon, Corey Oswalt. They had a whole lot of guys. Some of those guys got negative war, but that counts. And some of those guys, things didn't

[Ben Clemens]

go great for them after that year.

[Michael Bauman]

Nothing bad ever happened to any of those guys after that.

[Ben Bauman]

I had season tickets to that team. What happened next?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Ben yeah, well, look, they had some

[Ben Clemens]

good homegrown guys and yeah, I'll. I'll look up sometime what befell them after that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But the Pirates have a whole lot

[Ben Clemens]

of candidates to do this. Obviously, it, it starts with Paul Skins

[Ben Lindbergh]

who could get, you know, if he really goes off, he could get me almost halfway there himself.

[Ben Clemens]

Who knows.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But really, it's just that everyone who seems slated to make the Pirates rotation

[Ben Clemens]

out of spring training is helping me here because they all qualify.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think you do have Jose or Kitty hanging around. You do still somehow have Mike Clevenger hanging around. But it looks like as we speak,

[Ben Clemens]

it looks like the rotation is. Is going to be all homegrown guys. It's going to be Skeens and Keller and Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft and a Bauman favorite, I believe. Right. You have.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Ben Clemens]

You. You love your Majinsky.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So Carmen Machinsky might have.

[Ben Clemens]

Have. Have the inside track.

[Ben Bauman]

Did you.

[Michael Bauman]

Did you team me up for that just so you wouldn't have to try to pronounce his name?

[Ben Clemens]

I maybe partly yes, but can't say that I. I knew he was a but I. Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

Hey, Jared Jones.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And Jared Jones and Jared Jones would count. And Hunter Barco who's actually pretty good, I think.

[Ben Clemens]

And.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And Thomas Harrington is around. Like there are a lot of guys

[Ben Clemens]

who could help me satisfy this prediction. It's just a matter of will they be good basically. And you know, obviously some of them will be innings limited. But if the entire rotation is composed

[Ben Lindbergh]

of guys like this, then the innings have to come from somewhere. I guess they could come from the bullpen.

[Ben Clemens]

So that's what could hurt me here. Whether or not these guys get hurt. They might just not have the innings, but there's so many of them who could satisfy this condition and they seem good. And I want to believe that the Pirates can just have a great, just all homegrown nasty rotation because that would be fun for everyone and most of all Pirates fans.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So yeah, I'm going to say that they do this and I said more

[Ben Clemens]

than half a century basically because I guess, you know, prior to that you had the 1973 Cubs who had 19.1 war with Rick Russell and Bert Hooten and Fergie Jenkins and other guys. Yeah. So the all time record, by the way, is 22.8 war.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The wartime 1944 Tigers, led of course by Dizzy Trout, Hal Newhouser, Stubby Overmyer. I'm not going to go that high.

[Ben Clemens]

But you know, and it's annoying because

[Ben Lindbergh]

1973 was the first year of the

[Ben Clemens]

DH so I couldn't say DH era and like I couldn't do divisional era,

[Ben Lindbergh]

so I just said more than half a century.

[Ben Clemens]

But that'll. That'll work. Okay, back to bman.

[Michael Bauman]

I'm glad you did all the research for that because that was definitely going to be.

[Ben Clemens]

Or at least outsourced it to.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, you outsourced it to. To one of your devoted fans because that was definitely going to be more annoying to figure out what the bar was.

[Ben Clemens]

Didn't want to make Chris have to do the work So I made Mountain do it instead. Okay.

[Michael Bauman]

All right. So I've actually continued to improvise because I had this list of, you know, broadly speaking, judicious, objective predictions, and I found myself getting bored. So I'm pulling in for my reserve army.

[Ben Clemens]

I knew you. You couldn't be conventional, conservative. Mr. Chuck Michael Bauman, for this entire episode, I say that after you made a prediction related to fan fiction, erotic fan fiction about a manager.

[Michael Bauman]

You know how last year, apparently Bryce Harper got into it with a member of MLB's staff while they were touring the clubhouse. My prediction is that this year, someone will actually physically assault one of Rob Manfred's clubhouse emissaries. And so assault here in the broadest form of the word. I'm not saying he actually hits him with a bat or causes grievous bodily harm. It could be anything. It's a shove or a hand on the chest or the forehead to forehead contact that soccer players do. Any kind of physical confrontation between a player and. And one of Rob Man's mandarins.

[Ben Clemens]

So the confrontation was with Rob Manford himself. Right, because there was. There was also the. I mean, Mark De Roa was. Was involved.

[Ben Lindbergh]

De Rosa made some comment that was maybe misconstrued. Maybe he misspoke.

[Ben Clemens]

We know he does that sometimes, but

[Ben Bauman]

he told Bryce we're definitely making round two.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, but. But the actual confrontation was with Manfred himself. Right. So. But you're saying it doesn't have to be.

[Michael Bauman]

But that was just. Just words. Yeah. Rob Manfred or some other MLB executive and.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay. And Chris, do you have any clarifications here or this past muster for you?

[Chris Hannell]

I have my predictions. Then there's a column that says trackable, so it's like full. This is implied. I just have psy written next to this one.

[Meg Rowley]

This is going to get reported.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It has to be reported.

[Michael Bauman]

It will be reported. Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Chris Hannell]

I'm just waiting for there to be a he said, she said about, oh, it didn't actually touch them. And then one person saying, oh, no, he touched me. No, it didn't.

[Michael Bauman]

But in that case, I'm prepared to fight that out, so to speak, on a case by case basis after this.

[Ben Bauman]

I prefer to basically count it. If they get to a he said, she said.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, you know what?

[Chris Hannell]

I agree with you. I agree with you on that.

[Meg Rowley]

I think I'm comfortable with that as a rules determination for this one, too.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Ben Bauman]

All right. I'm gonna go super bold for my last three or.

[Ben Clemens]

I'm trying to do it.

[Ben Bauman]

Here's the first of them, Spencer Strider will get optioned to the Miners. What?

[Ben Clemens]

Oh, boy.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, There goes my sub 6 foot Cy Young candidate.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Given that every other pitcher on the

[Ben Clemens]

team is hurt already, he really has

[Ben Bauman]

to be bad for this would be, I mean, catastrophic.

[Meg Rowley]

I think people get fired if this has to happen.

[Ben Bauman]

So to be clear, this does not count injury. That's not being optioned.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay. Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

Rehab assignments are not. When you're optioned to the minors, that's. That's a different thing. Spencer Feder still retains mains options. Yeah, he still hasn't because he's been so good, but I'm predicting that he will. That something will have been so wrong. Yeah, it's shockingly so that they will option him to the Miners to work on his mechanics. This is bold because it's absolutely insane.

[Meg Rowley]

It is completely insane.

[Michael Bauman]

I don't think it's as insane as you think.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, we do see this, you know, like we see Koda Senga went down and you know, you get the resets

[Ben Clemens]

like the Jake Berger, but they're just so thin. Francisco Alvarez as this would be.

[Ben Bauman]

This is a lot different than Francisco Alvarez getting optioned to the minors, though.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

This is Spencer Strider. He has a Giant contract.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Meg Rowley]

Given the way the rest of this direction this episode went, I thought Giant was going to go in a different direction, man.

[Michael Bauman]

Me too.

[Meg Rowley]

I didn't expect this episode to be so horny.

[Ben Bauman]

I don't know what you guys are talking about.

[Meg Rowley]

I'm so sorry to all of our listeners.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, it's my turn. Jesus Christ. Okay, sorry. I'm distracted by my own nonsense.

[Michael Bauman]

My Spencer Strider's Giant contract. Those are some tight pants he wears too.

[Meg Rowley]

They're so tight.

[Ben Bauman]

This is like Arrested Development level of misunderstanding.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay, okay. Let's regroup. Let's regroup. Okay. We're going bold. We're going bold. A high school Pitcher will go 1:1 in this year's draft.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Ooh.

[Ben Clemens]

Now, I have no idea how likely this is because I have no idea who the draft prospects are, but it's not likely. Based on the profile, seems pretty unlikely.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, I think it's very, very bold.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes. Thank you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's what we're going for.

[Meg Rowley]

I thought I. I thought about qualifying it and doing something that has literally never happened, which is that a right handed high school pitcher will go on one, But I was like, it's bold enough. It's bold enough.

[Michael Bauman]

I almost predicted like the top four picks will all be college shortstops.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, that seems closer One of the

[Ben Bauman]

college shortstops has my favorite name in

[Michael Bauman]

the draft in a while, Rock Chalowski.

[Ben Bauman]

Rock Chalowski. Incredible.

[Meg Rowley]

There's so many gigantic high school pitchers in this year's draft. They are. They are huge. They're all huge. They're so huge. They're like all six, four and above. It's crazy. Crazy.

[Ben Bauman]

Savion Sims is six foot eight.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

It's a great name.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. And also how tall? I mean, just like you might be like, oh, he's gonna go one, one. And it's like, is he talented or is he just tall?

[Ben Lindbergh]

We always ask, has this happened since Brady Aiken? Is he the last guy.

[Ben Clemens]

The high school.

[Meg Rowley]

The most recent.

[Michael Bauman]

I still have the page up.

[Meg Rowley]

Wait, no, no, I have it up. I have it up. I have it, I have it.

[Michael Bauman]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, it would be. It would be Brady ain. He was the most recent. And then it was Brian Taylor in

[Ben Clemens]

9014 and before him.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Neither of those cases worked out so well.

[Ben Clemens]

So.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, yeah. It's never good when there's not a link in the, in the table. You know, when you, when you're.

[Ben Bauman]

Or when it says did not sign.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, yeah. When you're like, oh, boy.

[Michael Bauman]

Fun fact. Those are two of the three number one overall picks who are no longer playing professional baseball and did not appear in the majors.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

Brady Aiken and Brian Taylor.

[Ben Clemens]

Sensing a theme here. Yeah. Okay, well, Brian Taylor at least got in a fight. He came by it violently, so that's one.

[Meg Rowley]

Do you think he was mad that his name is spelled with an E instead of an A?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Does make it easy to remember.

[Ben Clemens]

All right, I am going to go

[Ben Lindbergh]

with my second Pirates related prediction here.

[Ben Clemens]

Here.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And this is probably not one of my bolder ones, but it's still less likely to happen than it is not to happen. So I'm going to say that the A's and the Pirates, who are two of the. Hey, these are frisky, feisty teams.

[Ben Clemens]

They're.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Things are looking up. Maybe they could make a run. This could happen. This could be a dark horse candidate, etc. Someone might even predict that the pirates would finish second in their dark division and be backed up by the playoff odds. But I'm saying that the A's and Pirates both miss the playoffs. But A's hitter WAR plus Pirates pitcher

[Ben Clemens]

WAR amounts to a top 10 team WAR total.

[Meg Rowley]

I like this.

[Ben Clemens]

So the A's and the Pirates project, I think they're.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They're neck and neck.

[Ben Clemens]

They're 20th and 21st in projected team war, which is probably not going to cut it if that's where they end up. But I'm saying that if you take

[Ben Lindbergh]

ace hitters who are pretty good and

[Ben Clemens]

Pirates pitchers who are pretty good and

[Ben Lindbergh]

you smush them together, then you will

[Ben Clemens]

get a top 10 team war total. But all for not because the A's and the Pirates in this scenario will both miss the playoffs. And so we will just wonder what might have been if indeed you could have vivisected them somehow and and turned them into one roster.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I think Denz ran the numbers on that earlier this year and and

[Ben Clemens]

came up with an 87 win prediction if you actually did combine the two teams. But you can't do that in real baseball.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But yeah, it's not wildly bold because they are projected to be something like 12th if you take A's hitter WAR plus Pirates pitcher WAR. But, but saying top 10 plus they both missed the playoffs.

[Ben Clemens]

And you know, the higher their WAR totals, the unlikelier it is that they will both miss the playoffs. If Connor Griffin makes Meg's prediction come true, then I think the Pirates would

[Ben Lindbergh]

probably make the playoffs. Though it sure would be something if he did and they didn't.

[Ben Clemens]

But yeah, I think they will be a top 10 team if you could just smush them together.

[Michael Bauman]

Caleb Durbin will get at least one MVP vote.

[Ben Clemens]

All right, I,

[Michael Bauman]

I invented a tool this off season called the perdometer which I tried to identify which players would pull a per the next Geraldo Perdomo or Mikel Garcia came from.

[Meg Rowley]

You mean Royals WAR leader Michael Garcia?

[Michael Bauman]

That's correct. Well, you know, assuming Bobby Wood Jr. Steps in a bear trap or something,

[Meg Rowley]

not only not only injured, but violently.

[Michael Bauman]

I ran the pedometer over Caleb Durbin and it started clicking like crazy. And he has recently been announced as the Red Sox starting third baseman. So we are all in. He's going to hit 50 doubles off the the Green Monster this year. Yeah, but that's not the. The specific prediction. The specific prediction is he will get at least one MVP vote.

[Ben Clemens]

I could even see a bold Durbin more productive than Bregman. Predictive. I also considered Okamoto being better than Bichette, but I'm not. I'm not making it. Someone could, but I'm not. Okay, Ben.

[Ben Bauman]

The Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Sacramento A's and St. Louis Cardinals will each miss the playoffs in 2026.

[Meg Rowley]

Whoa.

[Michael Bauman]

Who's even left to make the playoffs in 2026?

[Meg Rowley]

That's so fun.

[Ben Bauman]

All right, this one is. That's Bonkers they're connected in a thematic way that I'm not going to mention.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Give us the list again.

[Ben Bauman]

Baltimore Orioles.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees. That's tough right there.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

I don't love that part of this.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. This is incompatible with my 4Al east team makes the playoffs.

[Ben Bauman]

Sacramento A's and St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are kind of a toss in, but the others, it's not great. Even if you think that these are all independent and independently distributed, it's incredibly unlikely. But they're obviously not.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Ben Bauman]

If the Yankees do poorly, that's really good for the Red Sox and Orioles. I don't even have logic for this. I just needed to link these five teams for my theme thing. I was like, ah, crap.

[Chris Hannell]

These.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

I don't know. It could happen. It's definitely technically possible.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

I mean, it's almost the opposite of. Of my prediction, kind of. It's like only one playoff team will

[Ben Lindbergh]

come from the AL east, probably.

[Ben Clemens]

Unless.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Unless you're high on the race, maybe. But.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay. I wrote. I want to do this one, but I wrote it in a dumb way. So we're gonna workshop what I need.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay. Together. Gonna workshop what Meg meant by this. The A's rotation will finish in the fat middle of the league by fib. What. What does that mean? What did I mean by that when I wrote that down?

[Ben Bauman]

What is that?

[Chris Hannell]

The middle 10 teams?

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, but that's obvious, so why did I call it fat?

[Ben Lindbergh]

So they'll rank somewhere between 11th, 11th and 19th, or inclusive or something like that.

[Meg Rowley]

Inclusive 11 and 20th. 20th.

[Ben Lindbergh]

20th. Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay.

[Ben Bauman]

Well, hey, Meg.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah?

[Ben Bauman]

14 teams had starting rotations last year with a fit minus between 95 and 105. So maybe you meant that the middle is actually, like, pretty big.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, maybe I did. I don't know what I meant. You know, it's like. It's like the time that I wrote a note in my phone, make the baseball guy's brother brothers. What? What does that mean? How. How do you make them brothers?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Impossible.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, well, we worked it out.

[Meg Rowley]

It's bold because that rotation is bad, and that's a hard ballpark. Although maybe I was just inspired because Luis Severino looked pretty okay during the wbc. I think I. I think I have some. Some recency bias. That is WBC inspired.

[Ben Clemens]

Maybe.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So this is my final prediction. Right?

[Ben Clemens]

H. I've. I've got two that I want to make, so I'm not sure which one to choose, but I. They're Both NL east related.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I guess I'll go with this one. Each of the three former Yankees closers

[Ben Clemens]

on the Mets will amass more WAR than they did in any season with the Yankees.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So each of the three former Yankees closers on the Mets will have their

[Ben Clemens]

best season in New York and their best a better season than they had when they were with the Yankees. By fan Grass war, Clay Holmes has already done this. I guess he did this last year because he was a starter and had a higher WAR than he had for the Yankees in any season. But saying he'll do it again and

[Ben Lindbergh]

also Devin Williams will, with which you might think that wouldn't be hard after his single season with the Yankees went, but by fip, he wasn't actually that bad and so his WAR wasn't that bad with the Yankees.

[Ben Clemens]

So he would actually have to really

[Ben Lindbergh]

bounce back and be in fine form. And then Luke Weaver I think makes

[Ben Clemens]

it harder because Weaver had an excellent 2024 with the Yankees and you know, through 80 something innings or something like it would be pretty, pretty tough for

[Ben Lindbergh]

him to, to top that. But that's what makes it bold. And also I guess because he's the setup man, he'll maybe have a higher leverage than he did higher leverage index than he did in 2024, because 2024

[Ben Clemens]

he kind of worked his way up

[Ben Lindbergh]

to being the closer by the end

[Ben Clemens]

of the year, but was not for most of the year. And so he sort of earned his way into the circle of trust. And so if he starts as maybe the primary setup man for Williams then and he'll be in higher leverage role

[Ben Lindbergh]

and then that should help his WAR somewhat.

[Ben Clemens]

So maybe he'll have a higher WAR even if he doesn't have better surface stats.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But yeah, there'll be sort of crosstown rivalry, crosstown envy, Yankees fans looking from the Bronx.

[Ben Clemens]

Not that most of the Yankees fans are in the Bronx over to Queens and saying where were these guys when we had them? Or probably also using it to pump themselves up and say, ah, see, playing for the Yankees it's different from playing for the Mets, you know, the bright lights of the Bronx. It's not the same as playing in Queens. If you can't can't make it in the Bronx, you can can't make it anywhere or you can make it anywhere. That's how it goes anyway. Probably Yankees fans would turn it around from being bitter that these guys weren't better for the Yankees to use it as another example of Yankees exceptionalism and the Mets being an inferior Organization. Nonetheless, I. I think that's what will happen.

[Michael Bauman]

I think we need to get Meg out of here as soon as possible. And also, thank you. Ollie has stopped respecting the podcasters detente and is now agitating for dinner in a way that might be audible on the recording.

[Meg Rowley]

We can't hear him so far.

[Ben Clemens]

Michael's cat, to be clear.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, he's. Yeah, he's right at my feet. Meowing. So, all right. My last prediction is that one current MLB player, manager or gm will separate from his player partner, after which one party will publicly blame politics for the split.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You always have some sort of political scandal. Political apology. Apology for politics related tweets. So it's something in there.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, I mean, it was either. It was either this or Eugenio Suarez getting deported. So that's.

[Ben Clemens]

I'm glad you went with this one. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

What do you know?

[Ben Clemens]

What.

[Ben Lindbergh]

What's your. What's your inside info here? Are you secretly a relationship counselor for Michael L. Or someone just to name a name?

[Michael Bauman]

I mean, I'm sleeping with his wife.

[Ben Bauman]

Well, it sounds like they won't blame politics then, Mike.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's true.

[Michael Bauman]

I think Michael L. And I have. Have different enough politics that he might.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, this is.

[Ben Clemens]

This is interesting because.

[Michael Bauman]

Because I believe, you know, I have a worldview that believes in sharing and compassion, passion.

[Ben Bauman]

How do you feel about trading for pitching? Like, what if you have to go up some of your own prospects in

[Michael Bauman]

exchange for your wife?

[Chris Hannell]

My Google nose alerts are about to get so weird.

[Meg Rowley]

So weird.

[Michael Bauman]

I think this will be less difficult to.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah, I'm with you. I think this will take.

[Chris Hannell]

It's going to be much easier than the pedestrian getting struck by a mask.

[Michael Bauman]

Yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

Or the songs playing in the Phillies clubhouse or whatever.

[Michael Bauman]

Yeah, I feel like if this happens, we'll know about it.

[Ben Clemens]

Or the Otani press conference. Differences versus stolen bases. Yeah, this is.

[Ben Bauman]

I think we should probably go to mine because I've got one for. I've got one for you as well.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay. Well, this is.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, usually if.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If a GM or PO Bo or

[Ben Clemens]

whoever breaks up, we might not even know about that. Or if we do, we probably wouldn't know why. So it would have to be some

[Ben Lindbergh]

sort of truly scandalous situation.

[Michael Bauman]

But that's why I said publicly there will be, you know.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

Social in Instagram post. Probably.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. All right, then.

[Ben Bauman]

A picture of a notes app. Philip Rivers will not throw out a ceremonial first pitch in an affiliated regular season baseball game in 2026.

[Meg Rowley]

Does he often do that?

[Ben Bauman]

I don't know. Russell Wilson will.

[Meg Rowley]

Oh, yeah.

[Chris Hannell]

Okay. Wait, What? Philip Rivers will not throw a ceremonial first pitch in affiliated baseball, but regular season. Okay.

[Ben Bauman]

Ceremonial first pitch during a regular season affiliated baseball game. So, you know a level of the affiliated minors that has ceremonial first pitches, which I think is all of them. Many, but all of them. Is it all of them? Like the ds? I guess. Maybe not every single one, like.

[Ben Clemens]

Or the DSL or something, but if there are fans.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah. In any case, like, it's affiliated with the team, including the majors. Philip Rivers will not throw out a ceremonial first pitch in an affiliated regular season baseball game in 2026. However, Russell Wilson will throw out a ceremonial first pitch during an affiliated regular season baseball game in 2026.

[Meg Rowley]

That's interesting.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay. All right.

[Michael Bauman]

Does Philip Rivers have. What percentage of the active professional baseball players are Philip Rivers children?

[Ben Bauman]

I. I couldn't possibly tell you, but I don't. I don't feel comfortable saying. Zero. Certainly wouldn't rule that out.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, well, this will be news. This will be publicly reported if it happens.

[Ben Clemens]

So you can Google or if there's

[Ben Bauman]

a list of everyone who's trying to. Looking for one person.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Ben Bauman]

Somewhere.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Chris Hannell]

Yeah. I feel like there's going to be some PR person for Philip Rivers that will make sure it ends up somewhere.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah. Right. I agree.

[Meg Rowley]

I mean, for Russell Wilson, certainly.

[Michael Bauman]

You know, he's a grandfather.

[Meg Rowley]

Russell Wilson.

[Ben Clemens]

Russell Wilson.

[Michael Bauman]

No, no. Philip Rivers is great.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Ben Clemens]

What? That'd be quite precocious.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But yeah, I guess precocious is such

[Meg Rowley]

a nice way of putting.

[Ben Bauman]

Gives a whole new meaning to re. Virginification.

[Ben Clemens]

Oh, no.

[Meg Rowley]

This episode is so weird.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I know what theme song we'll be playing this time.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah. Okay. How many will Kyler Murray throw, I wonder. Okay, maybe he'll be busy.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right, so this is our final. Our final prediction, Right?

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

And in a weird way that you didn't plan. Ben, we are coming full circle because my final prediction is that. That Vinnie Pasquintino will use Espresso by Sabrina Carpenter as his walk up song at some point this summer.

[Ben Bauman]

Delightful.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. So the second straight year we've had

[Ben Clemens]

a Sabrina Carpenter themed prediction.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes.

[Ben Clemens]

Gamman would predict that he might date Sabrina Carpenter.

[Ben Bauman]

Probably.

[Meg Rowley]

But Vinnie's married, so I would never. Not. Not a friend of mine.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, until he breaks up with his wife because of politics.

[Ben Clemens]

Well, that doesn't count.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Account.

[Ben Clemens]

He's not a pobo.

[Michael Bauman]

No, I said player, player, manager, or oh, player two.

[Ben Clemens]

Oh, player. Oh, player.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, okay.

[Ben Clemens]

I thought it was more limited than that. Okay, that's More plausible.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Also the number of times that I sang graceffo like I was singing espresso during the wc. It's right there for me. I enjoyed it. It was nice.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Nobody has placed a bid on the

[Ben Clemens]

espresso machine, including Meg, while we have

[Ben Lindbergh]

been recording this podcast.

[Meg Rowley]

I don't need that. You know, I, I and I memorabilia person.

[Ben Clemens]

Neither am I. Right.

[Meg Rowley]

But I have no, I have a. I have some stuff. You know, I do a nice.

[Ben Clemens]

That'd be a cool thing to have.

[Meg Rowley]

It's just not a cool thing to display.

[Michael Bauman]

You know, that's why I think that the jerseys are going for more.

[Meg Rowley]

Right.

[Michael Bauman]

Because I'm thinking of like, like the local car dealer guy.

[Meg Rowley]

Right?

[Ben Clemens]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Michael Bauman]

Like you can put the Jack Caglion thing in a frame. Like the coffee machine just looks like a coffee machine.

[Chris Hannell]

It's not easy to find a shadow box for an espresso machine.

[Michael Bauman]

Exactly.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah. It's also not a. It's not a nice espresso machine. I feel like that.

[Ben Clemens]

That's part of the charm. Yeah. But you could construct a shrine of some sort.

[Ben Bauman]

Like, I guess what I'm saying is, like, I could imagine being like, I'll overpay for this espresso machine and I want a nice espresso machine anyway. And money's no object.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Right.

[Ben Bauman]

But I wouldn't get an espresso if

[Ben Clemens]

that were the case. Do you use it or do you just display it?

[Meg Rowley]

Right.

[Ben Clemens]

And.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, you.

[Ben Bauman]

I mean, I, I would not buy it at. Not use it. Like.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, I don't think I would buy it and use it.

[Ben Bauman]

Yeah. But then I want it to be nicer than an espresso.

[Meg Rowley]

It is. I mean, it's. It is amazing because you can, you can just. You can do. They can do better, you know, and they have the money. Like get a Breville. I don't know.

[Ben Bauman]

Like they could have had a barista in the dugout.

[Meg Rowley]

This is. Well, this is what I was saying.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think the jankiness, the low budget

[Ben Clemens]

jankiness of it was part of the charm though.

[Ben Bauman]

But I'm.

[Ben Clemens]

I agree with you. Next time does.

[Meg Rowley]

Anyway $3,000 they want to give me so I can buy this espresso machine.

[Ben Clemens]

All right. The one that I wanted to do or considered doing was that jerks and Profar would outwar his replacements at DH

[Ben Lindbergh]

for the Braves or maybe even to people DH and left field. Because that's conceivable. Possibly too. We got Dominic Smith and Mike Shamski right now.

[Ben Clemens]

I'm not sure And I guess technically it's like if you don't play, do

[Ben Lindbergh]

you have have zero war or do

[Ben Clemens]

you have no war?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is it undefined or is it a zero?

[Ben Clemens]

I don't know. But you all know what I meant

[Ben Lindbergh]

and maybe that makes sense because if he has replacement level players, they would

[Ben Clemens]

in fact be replacing him. So that was, that was my last cut that I kind of wanted to squeeze in there. So that's a bonus for everyone. But this was great.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think we, we got some good predictions here.

[Ben Clemens]

I'm surprised that I got all the

[Ben Lindbergh]

predictions that I wanted. I thought we were going to have

[Ben Clemens]

to fight over some or that we would end up with sort of stuff, similar ones, but we didn't.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Shockingly no one else had the Tony Vitello AO3 prediction.

[Michael Bauman]

Well, you guys were all interested in the Pirates. Yeah, I guess I had a Pirates prediction too. Very Pirates heavy.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'm surprised we had no other challenge system ones.

[Ben Clemens]

I thought just because it's so top of the mind we would have.

[Michael Bauman]

I completely forgot that the challenge system was happening when I was making this list.

[Chris Hannell]

I think every AL Central team is in here except the Twins and I

[Ben Clemens]

know how to feel about that but sorry.

[Meg Rowley]

We wanted to free liberate you if you wanted to be, you know, like you end up having to track so much of this. We didn't want to.

[Chris Hannell]

Very desired. I think at this moment you don't want to. I don't want to go up on that rant at this moment.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think we've all been pretty clear about our predictions and also they're.

[Ben Clemens]

They're trackable. You won't have to do too much math probably. Famous last words. But yeah compared to past years.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So. So please remind everyone where to go,

[Ben Clemens]

what to do because I know you want more people participating.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Every year we've done this, we've had more people voting and it's just. It's more fun for everyone, perhaps voters,

[Ben Clemens]

but also for us when this becomes a big group activity.

[Chris Hannell]

Yes, you go right now go to ewstats.com and fill out your ballot. You must do so before quote unquote real opening day at first pitch. We had over 1500 submissions last season. Our goal this season is 1800. I'm going to be very annoying on Blue sky rooting for all of you to come and contribute the top. You will all be scored and there will be a leaderboard that you'll get a link to so that you can follow your own progression and see where you are ranked amongst your Fellow listeners. And first place will earn free swag from the Effectively Wild online store. So get over there, make your prognostications or judgment of said prognostications and we will be following this along all season long.

[Ben Clemens]

And I will link to where you

[Ben Lindbergh]

can do that on the show page

[Ben Clemens]

in the episode description.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Would you care to tease a prize you have prepared or would you prefer

[Ben Clemens]

for that to be a surprise?

[Chris Hannell]

There's going to be a surprise. We're looking to do a thing for the top three listeners, but it is still being developed. But we're trying to do something a little bit special and unique, so stay tuned for that. I will. I will announce it on the Blue sky if that's going to happen.

[Ben Clemens]

Okay. And we will now each pick our. Our doubt cards after we record. But. But we will keep those secret, right? Those will be secret. And then you get to disclose those.

[Chris Hannell]

So you get to dunk. You get to dunk on your fellow contestants at the end in the recap.

[Ben Clemens]

Only you will know for now.

[Meg Rowley]

For now.

[Chris Hannell]

Yeah, we'll hold that information very tightly.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay, well, this was wonderful. Thank you again, Chris, for both originating

[Ben Clemens]

this thing and also just doing all the leg work to make it so much fun to follow throughout the year. And we will obviously have you back on to recap it all when it's all said and done, if not before

[Chris Hannell]

I say, quite literally, it is my pleasure.

[Ben Clemens]

And thank you, other Ben and Bauman.

[Michael Bauman]

No, it's my pleasure.

[Ben Bauman]

The entire topic of this podcast, in fact.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Wasn't your pleasure, Ben, Huh?

[Ben Clemens]

This was misery for you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

All right, well, everyone please go vote. Make your voice and your assessment of the probabilities heard. And remember, a lot of these are bold predictions, or at least intended to be. Score them accordingly, however likely you think

[Ben Clemens]

they actually are to occur.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And Chris wanted me to relay his

[Ben Clemens]

thanks, and I will also relay mine to the two developers on the EW

[Ben Lindbergh]

Stats team, Michael Fazio and Sean Mac,

[Ben Clemens]

me plus Raymond Chen and Michael Mountain, for their research assistance.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Guess it's ironic that I alluded to MLB's partnership with a prediction market in

[Ben Clemens]

the episode in which we're doing predictions

[Ben Lindbergh]

and asking people to gauge their likelihood. But of course, there's no money at stake here.

[Ben Clemens]

This is just for fun and bragging rights and pride.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The terms of that deal, by the way, not entirely clear, but MLB will reportedly be getting something in the vicinity

[Ben Clemens]

of 100 to $150 million a year from Polymarket. And this is not really, really a surprise. We had mentioned on an earlier episode that Manfred had already signaled his receptivity

[Ben Lindbergh]

to this Leagues have largely changed their tune if not outright partnered already. MLB is not the first.

[Ben Clemens]

The NHL, mls, UFC beat MLB to it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Of course a lot of media companies, news outlets, etc also have partnerships with polymarket, Kalshi or some other prediction market. But you know it's a completely unproblematic

[Ben Clemens]

partnership when much of the announcement deals with integrity concerns. I like this line in the Athletics report.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The deal can be voided if courts rule that prediction markets violate state law,

[Ben Clemens]

a league official who was not authorized

[Ben Lindbergh]

to speak publicly said, confirming a report from espn.

[Ben Clemens]

So that's always good.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Hey, if our new partner is found to be acting illegally, then this can be voided.

[Ben Clemens]

I guess that might be the case

[Ben Lindbergh]

with many partnerships, but the fact that

[Ben Clemens]

it has to be signaled here because

[Ben Lindbergh]

there are still significant questions surrounding the legality of prediction markets very much in flux as we have discussed discussed Seemingly

[Ben Clemens]

not a ton of appetite by the current presidential administration to crack down on these things. Donald Trump Jr. Invests in them. MLB is positioning this as a proactive

[Ben Lindbergh]

move to ensure integrity, but it's also making money. MLP has a memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which Rob

[Ben Clemens]

Manford says is an imperative step in

[Ben Lindbergh]

proactively managing the new and rapidly growing prediction market space. Predicting the entire integrity of the game on the field is our top priority.

[Ben Clemens]

By engaging in this community, we are able to work together to create clear

[Ben Lindbergh]

boundaries with the goal of mitigating risk while providing fan engagement opportunities.

[Ben Clemens]

Look, I suppose there's an argument keep

[Ben Lindbergh]

your friends close, your enemies closer, your official prediction market partners closest that MLB will have some oversight here.

[Ben Clemens]

Polymarket and the CFTC are supposed to

[Ben Lindbergh]

share info with MLB that's supposed to help flag suspicious activity, which, as we

[Ben Clemens]

know, didn't exactly work perfectly. In Emmanuel Classe's case, Polymarket's president of sports business told the Athlet Athletic we will work collaboratively with MLB to identify

[Ben Lindbergh]

what types of markets pose unreasonable integrity

[Ben Clemens]

risks for the game of baseball and

[Ben Lindbergh]

try to get those out of the

[Ben Clemens]

market, with the goal being how do you protect consumers?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Polymarket supposedly has partnerships with companies that are supposed to identify suspicious trading activity.

[Ben Clemens]

MLB said it would work with polymarket

[Ben Lindbergh]

to restrict markets that present an integrity risk to mlb, such as individual pitches, manager decisions and umpire performance, among others.

[Ben Clemens]

The league had already issued a memo reminding players that they're not allowed to use these things, as is the case with sports betting, which this essentially is, with some slight distinctions that the current case for largely unregulated legality rests on the deal does not include minor league baseball, but supposedly Polymarket will work with MLB regarding any minor league markets, which to the extent they exist probably even

[Ben Lindbergh]

more subject to manipulation.

[Ben Clemens]

Anyway, I'm sure it will all be fine. Fine.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That will do it for today and for this week. You can support the podcast on Patreon

[Ben Clemens]

by going to patreon.com effectively wild and

[Ben Lindbergh]

signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks as have the following five listeners Rebecca Fleming, Rebecca Vaughn, Will Peckingham, Greg Padgett and Kate.

[Ben Clemens]

Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks

[Ben Lindbergh]

include access to the Effectively Wild Discord Group for patrons only, monthly bonus episodes,

[Ben Clemens]

episodes playoff, live streams, prioritized email answers,

[Ben Lindbergh]

shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, personalized messages, discounts on merch and ad free fangraphs memberships, and so much more.

[Ben Clemens]

Check out all the [e-mail] effectivelywild if

[Ben Lindbergh]

you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro

[Ben Clemens]

themes to podcastangrafts.com you can rate, review

[Ben Lindbergh]

and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcast, Spotify, YouTube, music and other podcast platforms.

[Ben Clemens]

You can join our Facebook [e-mail] group effectivelywild.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectivelywild and you can check the show notes in the podcast, posted fan graphs or the episode description in

[Ben Clemens]

your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance.

[Ben Clemens]

We hope you have a wonderful weekend and we will be back to talk to you in the week of opening Day.

[Meg Rowley]

Take me to the diamond Lead me through the turnstile Shower me with data that I never thought to compile now

[Ben Clemens]

reeling out the scorecard with a crackage

[Meg Rowley]

and a smile Play wild.