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Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Effectively Wild Episode 2458: The Opening Day Debutant (Base)ball
00:21:38
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Ben Lindbergh
Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild.
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Meg Riley
Hello, and welcome to episode 2458 of Effectively Wild, a fan Graphs baseball podcast, brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Riley of fangraphs, and I am joined by Ben Lindberg of the Ringer. Ben, happy third opening day.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yes, the real one.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Did we decide?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
They're all real to me, in some sense. We need them all together. It's with their powers. Combined, we are captain opening day. So this is good.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
All the teams will have played by
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
the time people have heard this, so you don't have to feel left out.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
If you were the Squidward spongebob meme looking through the blinds at other people
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
playing and having fun. No, now you get to play, too. It's opening day for everyone.
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Meg Riley
Finally, finally, finally.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And brought to you by our Patreon supporters. Also brought to our Patreon supporters, because
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
this is the first paid episode of Effectively Wild.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
So welcome to our subscribers. Welcome also to our free previewers.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Whether you are spending something or nothing on this episode, we hope you'll feel like you at least got what you paid for. We hope that you'll stick around if you're able. And we're cool.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Gratified by the response from everyone this week.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And, you know, I was thinking, I mean, it's a. It's a momentous thing to ask people
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
for their money, which we've done, in a sense before, but are doing in a more concerted fashion.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And we always ask people for their
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
time and plenty of it.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
But I know they say time is money.
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Meg Riley
A shocking amount, one could argue.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Yeah. And, you know, time may be money in a sense, but not.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Not literally.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
There is an important distinction there. And also, I guess we're asking for both, so we don't take that lightly.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And we understand that it may be difficult for everyone to swing that. And so I am not at all attempting to make light of that when I say I was just imagining a hypothetical listener who is considering subscribing to hear the rest of this episode, but is still sort of on the fence. Not for budgetary reasons, but just sell
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
me, you know, just like, talk in such a fashion that I want to keep listening.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And I need the free trial of however many minutes the free preview on
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
this episode is to sort of, you know, you've been doing it for 14 years and about 2,500 episodes. I think I need maybe 15 more
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
minutes to make up my mind, you
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
know, you haven't quite sold me. So we'll see if this Free preview is the thing that puts you over the edge.
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Meg Riley
Maybe we talk about mostly the free preview.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Right? Exactly. I'm sure that's the kind of content that people are thinking, oh, so they just are going to talk about the fact that this is a paid episode the entire time. Well, I can save my money.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
No, we're going to talk about some baseball.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
That's what we do here much of the time.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And we're going to talk about some opening day activities. And this was a great opening day. And you know why this was a great opening day? What made this opening day great?
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Meg Riley
What's that?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Well, people played baseball, so. Oh, sure, that's part of it.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
I mean, that kind of comes with the territory. As we just said, not everyone played baseball, but, but the playing of baseball, that's pretty key to the appeal of opening day. And so that alone makes it wonderful after we have been major league baseball deprived for so long.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
But what made this opening day particularly
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
special, I think, was that all the
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
guys we were most excited to see, they did the things that we were most excited to see them do. Yeah, this was all the shiny new toys, all the, all the guys that we've never seen be in big league
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
baseball games before because they never had been.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
They immediately showed what we had been waiting for and showed out. So I don't think it was necessarily the, the most high profile prospects we've ever seen on a single opening day or the most debuts, but just about everyone who did debut and who was
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
someone that people were anticipating watching on
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
the stage immediately showed, oh yeah, that, that's why everyone was excited about them. This was like a baseball debutante ball. This was like a coming out party. Not, not in a heated rivalry sense, unfortunately, but kind of like a cotillion, you know, I know these are, these are all sort of female coded terms, I guess, you know, that's okay, guys. We got cheated out of the debutante ball.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
I mean, I'm not sure if we were getting cheated so much as it was being imposed upon.
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Meg Riley
Yeah, not men. Say, I don't know. But I don't know if that' the, the grand tragedy of the debutante ball.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
But why won't anyone think of the dudes who didn't get to attend their own debutant ball?
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Meg Riley
There are lots of fancy young men who simply want to put on a toast and have it be about them.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Yes. And go 4 for 5 with some extra base hits. Right. And so that's what we saw here. It was just a great day for rookies so there were eight brand new,
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
newly minted major leaguers that we met on this day. Not in the sense of our meet a major leaguer segment, though I suppose it will be time to bring that back sometime soon. But guys who made their major league
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
debuts and all the ones that you
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
had heard of previously did something.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Did something really significant because that's not always the case. Maybe you can see someone's physical tools, but sometimes guys scuffle, they struggle, everyone slumps, everyone takes overs. And so you don't expect everyone to
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
just hit the ground running and be great right away.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
But of those eight debutantes, is there a male coded?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Can we make that gender neutral differently?
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Meg Riley
I think you just lop an E off the end.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
There's just no E. Yeah, okay, sure.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Blonde, right? So that of the eight, I would say that six were pretty well five, at least six. I'm already downgrading guys, but. Oh, no, no, I. I guess of these guys. So, look, I'm not suggesting that people
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
were not excited to see Walbert Urania of the Angels, because I'm sure that Walbert Urania's friends and family were super excited to see him.
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Meg Riley
You know, sometimes like a guy has a cool name and you're like, yeah, Walbert's here. Yeah, that's how I feel.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
I was excited to see the name Walbert. So I'm. I'm happy to add that I doubt there's been a previous big league Walbert. I will check, but I'm guessing that's a first. So you have Walbert Urania, and then
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
you have Hedixon Paez, who is a
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
pitcher for the White Sox. And yes, I did look up how to pronounce that. It starts with a J. There's an X in there. So Hadixon and Walbert, we have expanded the catalog of MLB names, so that's exciting.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And then Carter Bombler, who is a Rangers player, he appeared as well, you know, this, like, also ran, slightly overshadowed perhaps, but yeah, these, these other guys, we have Justin Crawford of the Phillies.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
We have Kevin McGonagall of the Tigers. We have J.J. weatherholt of the Cardinals. We have Munetaka Murakami of the White Sox. We have Carson Benge, not Benj Ben of the Mets.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
This is a lot of top prospects and they all had fantastic games.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And also Chase the Lauder, of course, of the Guardians, who. This was his regular season debut, right? Of course he made his debut in the postseason, which was real trial by fire, those circumstances, but this was his regular season Debut.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
All six of those guys had great games.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Immediately showed, hey, here's why we're top prospects. You don't have to wait and read the scouting report. No, they were all great immediately.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And look, a lot of the old
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
standbys were great and it was nice to see Mike Trout hit a homer
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
and draw a few walks. And, you know, a lot of the
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
main characters, the recurring characters, but the new characters made incredible debuts.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
They just walked right in. It's like sitcom character entrance and everyone's clapping. Suddenly it's like, that's what happened here.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And that made this opening day particularly entertaining for me.
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Meg Riley
It was really something because, you know, we had just spent the very last bit of spring trying to remind people that the guys don't always hit the ground running. Right. That Connor Griffin needing more time to marinate in the minors isn't like a sign that all the prospect evaluators got it wrong or that he's going to be a bad big leaguer or whatever. Mostly means that he's 19.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
You know, sometimes they hit the ground like the dead bird who plummeted to
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
the earth in Carson Bench's vicinity to
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Meg Riley
that in a second. But, yeah, like, that isn't to say that guys can't hit the ground running, that they can't have a day like, say Kevin McGonagall had. And I liked, you know, just sort of generally that you're right, that each of these guys sort of showed out that group of four maybe most dominantly. I do put Dilaudor in a slightly different category, which is perhaps unfair because he had a two home run night. So, like, way to go, Chase. But that they were each also very much themselves. You didn't tune in to the Phillies game and then go, well, what. What were you all talking about? Justin Crawford is a bopper, you know, and he's. He's elevating and celebrating.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
No, he didn't hit the two homers. The latter hit the two homers.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Yeah, right.
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Meg Riley
He's. He's hitting, you know, singles and going fast. And will it all hang together? We're still going to find out. But. But if it does, like, it's probably going to be a very extreme version of the profile that we saw on offer yesterday. So, yeah, it's. It's very exciting. If you're a Tigers fan, though, man, you gotta be. You gotta just be absolutely thrilled because, you know, all of these guys had a. Had a good day. But McGonagall, I really. He really did it, man. 24 for 5 with two doubles and the very first pitch of his big league career is, is a two run double and he was hustling and you're like, wow, this is this guy's maybe legit. I wonder if it, if it creates a false sense of expectation, but maybe that's impossible for a guy who's like a consensus top five prospect in baseball.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And Torkelson to McGonagall to Dingler, just an incredible sequence of names. I mean this is the new Tinker to Evers to Chance, I hope. But these are not the saddest of possible words. These are the happiest and silliest of possible words.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
So that is just wonderful. Even if those guys weren't good, just the fact that we are graced with a Walbert and a Head Dixon and a McGonagall and a Dingler and a Torkelson. I mean, could it be better? Not much.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
So I tried to, to stat blast
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
this a little bit. I do have a line on a little stat blast that I think I will share later in the show. But I tried to craft a fun
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
fact about these debuts and you know, all fun facts lie a little bit. And I was, I was purposely trying
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
to make this season singular and hey, how can I say that this is
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
unprecedented and I don't know that I can quite get there but I, I
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
made a few different attempts and I will share them with you.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
So it's tough sometimes to, you know,
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
we have game score for pitchers and there are various versions of game score
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
and it's a handy dandy little stat.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And Bill James did at one point
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
toy with a batter game score but
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
it was later on, it didn't really
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
take and it's just a little bit harder to have a batter game score. And so how do you quantify the
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
goodness of a game that a batter had? And so we try to approach it in various oblique ways.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
So one way that I tried to
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
do this is with a little stat called RE24.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And probably the less I say about
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
it the better because I've never succeeded in explaining it in actual clear ways
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
that anyone would understand. But it's, it's called base out runs added essentially. I think there's a bit of a
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
branding issue with RE24 frankly, but it's
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
also kind of a confusing conceptually stack because it's, it's like in between a little bit. It's basically looking at how you contributed offensively.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
You look at the run expansy at
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
the start of your plate appearance and
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
the run expectancy at the end and you consider just the 24 is the 24 possible base out states. And so it's like, well, did you put your team in a better position
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
to score runs or worse? So it's a little like win probability added but less context sensitive. But still a little context sensitive. So it's not context neutral like a linear weights WRC plus. Are we selling you on the subscription pad? Anyone? Sold?
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Meg Riley
Yeah. You got to stop talking about it, Ben. You're, you're tightening up.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Go to patreon.com effectively wild right now, now that I've given you Mishpee RE24.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
But look, it's a, a slightly context neutral, slightly context sensitive way to just say did this guy help his team put his team in a better position to succeed essentially.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
So I looked up, okay, what's the most guys we've seen first game of a season and the first game of
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
their career who had an re 24 of 8 or more? And again, what does 08 more mean to anyone? What's the context for that? Just, it's good, it's a good game, you know.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
OK, so four of these guys cleared that bar.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Benj, McGonagall, Murakami and Dilautter.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And for stat head at baseball reference
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
purposes, Dilaudor here, this counts as the first game of his career.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Obviously in a very real world sense it was not.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
But for regular season purposes it was. Okay, so four guys did that.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Has that happened before?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yes. This tied the most times that has ever happened. This was the fourth time that there had been four guys in the first
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
game of a season that was also the first game of their career or the regular season at least, who had
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
an Re 24 of at least 0.8. This happened in 1914, as we all recall. This happened in 1938, of course, like it was yesterday and it happened in 1950. So we have tied the maximum number of times now. It's not in first place alone, but
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
it's, it's tied for first.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
That's something.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Because who could forget 1914 opening day. Biddy Dolan had himself a game and obviously went on to great things and
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
has become a household name because who wouldn't remember Biddy Dolan, Max Flack, Charlie
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Hanford and of course Dick Crutcher.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yes, Dick Crutcher.
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Meg Riley
Crutcher.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Dick Crutcher.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And did I read that as Cruncher? Initially I did and then I went back and read it again. It's not that much better.
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Meg Riley
I was gonn say, you get A you get a strong visual, I think either way.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yes. You must have such a. A meaty member that you need a. A crutch to support it. Perhaps a Dick.
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Meg Riley
I was thinking it was the crutch.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Oh yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Well, in that case even more so perhaps, but.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
But less said about that the better. Perhaps. But Biddy Dolan went on to be
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
a sub replacement level player, as did, I'm sorry to say, Dick Crutcher.
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Meg Riley
Well, he was busy.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
This does put into perspective that having a big game on opening day for.
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Meg Riley
I thought that one different word was going to follow big there.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
But anyway, it does.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Does not necessarily portend greatness.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
That's all I'm saying. However, they achieved greatness on that day.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Okay, so that was my first attempt
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
and I achieved a tie with the all time record.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
All right, how about I move on from Re 24 and what if I just say total bases? Who doesn't like total base?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Now that's an easy one to explain.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
So much re 24 base out states total basis.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
How many bases did you. You know, I guess certain ways that you can acquire the bases and rack up your high score of bases.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
But basically people understand total bases. So in this category, I said four or more total bases because that was the criterion satisfied by Benj Delater, McGonagall Murakami and J.J. weatherholt, who also acquired four total bases because he homered. Murakami homered, Delaude homer twice. Benjamin and McGonagall, as you said, went 4, 5 with a couple doubles. So they got there in different ways. But four total bases for five of those guys.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Okay, how about that? Is that unprecedented?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Have I done it?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Have I set this opening day apart?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Almost. Almost.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
We're tied. Tied for the all time high with again that pesky 1938. 1938 also had five guys who fit
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
all those criteria who had their first game on that day. So gosh. Yeah, curses spoiled again.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And of course, in 1938 the five were Ernie Coy, Emmett Miller, Ena Slaughter.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Now that's a guy who went on to have himself a career hall of famer.
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Meg Riley
Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Dario Lodigiani.
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Meg Riley
Amazing.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yeah. Could have played for Team Italy if he were still around. Yeah. And of course, Coker triplet, Coker triplet.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Coker triplet, Coker triplet. Yes. All right, so, okay, I'm doing decently here. That's a poker triplet. Yes. This is.
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Meg Riley
Okay.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Dick Crutcher, Coker triplet, triplet. These names will be bouncing around in our heads.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Names?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yeah, names and don't forget Biddy Dolan. All right, My last attempt.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
So I, I achieved a two way all time tie. Not bad.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
But I want to get Justin Crawford in here. How can I get Justin Crawford?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Because he had a nice game, but
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
it wasn't quite as standout an offensive game, but he went two for four.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Two signals. He had himself a thousand ops.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Now that's a nice round number.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
All right, so how about I set the cutoff at a 1000 OPS? First game of the season, first game
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
of career or at least regular season, career, 1000 OPS. Has that happened before?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Have we had 6000 OPSers?
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yes, yes, we have.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
That has happened twice before. 1938, again, the bane of my existence. I'm trying to craft a fun fact here. 1938, and you keep getting in the way with all your Coker triplets and your Enis slaughters. And they also had six that year.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And so who, let's see, Johnny Rizzo, of course. Maybe you know, another potential candidate for team Italy back in the day. And 1901. 1901 also had six guys satisfy all of those criteria. Yeah.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
So it's a, it's a three way tie in that stat. And also every way I can craft
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
has happened before, I'm sorry to say.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Wow. But you know what? That's a lot of baseball history.
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Meg Riley
It is.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And this was, if not quite unprecedented, it was without precedent in most people's living memory, without precedent in the expansion era, without precedent in, well, since 1950. I mean, that's not bad, right?
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Meg Riley
It's not bad at all.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Yeah. And all of these guys went on to wonderful things, as we have established.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And of course, in 1901, you had Jack Hayden, Jim Jackson, Larry McLean, wid.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Conroy, Billy Gilbert.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Wid.
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Effectively Wild Co-host 2
And Jim Delahanty. Yeah, yeah.
- [20:20]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Wid. Yes.
- [20:21]
Meg Riley
Okay. Okay. I am worried that you're making fun of me, you know.
- [20:27]
Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Nope.
- [20:27]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
It's all very real.
- [20:29]
Meg Riley
Wid.
- [20:30]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Yes.
- [20:31]
Meg Riley
Dick Crutcher.
- [20:32]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Dick Crutcher. Coker, triplet.
- [20:34]
Meg Riley
Coker, triplet. I'm just supposed to move on from that? From poker?
- [20:40]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
We're gonna have to triplet. The point was great suite of six debuts.
- [20:45]
Meg Riley
Terrific.
- [20:46]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
And also those other guys we mentioned, they were there too. And congrats to them. They achieved great things. They became big leaguers.
- [20:51]
Effectively Wild Co-host 2
But this was just a ton of fun to immediately see these guys strut
- [20:55]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
their stuff on this stage. So congrats to them and congrats to us because we all won on this day.
- [21:03]
Effectively Wild Co-host 2
That'll do it for the free preview of today's Effectively Wild.
- [21:06]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Thank you for listening.
- [21:07]
Effectively Wild Co-host 2
If you'd like to listen on and hear whatever wisdom and wit await, we would love to have you. You can visit patreon.com effectivelywild to access the rest of this episode and plenty
- [21:17]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
of other exclusive content.
- [21:18]
Effectively Wild Co-host 2
Weekly subscriber only episodes, monthly bonus shows, our Discord group our live streams. Either way, we will be back with another episode soon which will appear in full on this feed. Until then, we wish you well and thank you for your support of Effectively
- [21:31]
Effectively Wild Co-host 1
Wild, whatever form it takes.