Effectively Wild Episode 2463: Filled to the Brim

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2463: "Filled to the Brim"

FanGraphs Baseball Podcast | Hosts: Ben Lindbergh & Meg Rowley | Date: April 10, 2026

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Main Theme & Episode Overview

This episode dives into the quirks, controversies, and early trends of the 2026 MLB season, focusing on mound charges and ejections, early surprise and disappointment teams, statistical impacts of the new automated ball-strike (ABS) zone—especially for non-standard-sized hitters—and emerging, often humorous, on-field fashion trends. There's also a detailed look at the Pirates' big extension with ultra-young star Connor Griffin and the culture shock of college managers stepping into MLB dugouts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mound Charges and Ejections: Strategic Loopholes & Sportsmanship

• The Solaire-Lopez Incident: The recent mound charge by Jorge Solaire, the first in four years, triggered double suspensions and a listener question about potential loopholes (e.g., could a hitter essentially bait an ace pitcher into an ejection in a big game?).
  • [01:00] Ben: “This mound charge...is the first mound charging in the majors in four years.”
  • [02:15] Meg: "...Lopez really had no choice in the matter. Once Solaire charged at him, he had to defend himself only to get run from the game."
• The hosts debate the exploitability of the ejection rules—could a team send a "sacrificial lamb" to provoke ejection of a rival’s ace? Both agree issues of pride and “macho” culture make it unlikely, and umpires would probably sniff out anything too transparently staged.
  • [03:39] Meg: “I worry that this is an exploitable vulnerability...but I imagine the reaction on the field would be very different.”
• The psychology and history behind mound charges, including bench-clearing brawls as a cultural phenomenon.
  • [04:17] Ben: “It certainly gets people engaged...people are always interested in a mound charge, but we're in favor of a little less aggression and fisticuffs in general.”

2. Solaire vs. Lopez: Bad Blood or Bad Luck?

• Plenty of historical context: Solaire has dominated Lopez in head-to-head matchups (14-for-23, 5 HRs in 26 PAs), possibly fueling suspicions when Lopez plunked Solaire after a home run.
  • [09:00] Ben: “They have faced each other 26 times, and Solaire is 14 for 23 with five home runs...Absolute massacre.”
• The hosts break down the “theatrics” vs. genuine violence in brawls (“the hit rate...has got to be extremely low”).
  • [10:29] Ben: “Baseball brawls, the connection rate, the hit rate, it's got to be extremely low.”

3. Pirates Lock Up Connor Griffin: The Math & Messaging of Modern MLB Mega-Deals

• Pittsburgh’s extension of 19-year-old Connor Griffin (9 years, $140M, plus incentives): landmark contract for the team, representing a new era and potentially a culture shift.
  • [17:04] Ben: “Connor Griffin is a Pittsburgh Pirate for many, many years...If he turns into anything like the player he's supposed to, will work out quite well for the Pirates.”
• Discussion of the contract’s structure (early free agency for Griffin at age 29, possibility of second mega-deal).
• The oddity of a teenager being the highest-paid player in the clubhouse—and the front office’s profound confidence in such a large commitment.
  • [20:48] Ben: “Imagine being 19 and just being set for life personally and professionally.”
  • [22:21] Meg: “They think that this is the dude. And I think that they're gonna be proven correct on that score.”
• Broader implications: does this make Pittsburgh a more attractive free agent destination? How does it impact the likelihood of teammates (like Paul Skenes) sticking around?

4. Automated Balls-Strikes (ABS): Who Benefits?

• With ABS and the challenge system in full effect, the hosts discuss early evidence that shorter hitters (e.g., Jose Altuve) are seeing real benefit: fewer erroneous called strikes, leading to career-best walk rates.
  • [31:07] Ben: “There was some question before the season about how this would affect players at the top or bottom of the height scale...This would help the shorter guys.”
• Altuve’s start: “He is getting a more favorable strike zone called” (+200 WRC+ through early April).
  • [33:41] Meg: “He has walked way more than he's ever walked in a full season before. I'm not saying these numbers are going to hold up...but...he is getting more favorable calls than he had in the past.”
• The challenge effect seems more pronounced for shorter players; the hosts also ponder possible “resurgences” and future Hall-of-Fame trajectories.
  • [40:34] Meg: “It is truly one of the coolest things about baseball that there are...so many different kinds of bodies that can...not just make it to the majors...but succeed.”

5. Playoff Odds Check: Early Risers and Tumblers

• Analysis of the first two weeks’ impact on Fangraphs Playoff Odds across MLB:
  • Early-season slumps (Red Sox, Mariners, Cubs, Tigers, Giants, Blue Jays) have meaning—even if “true talent” hasn’t changed, banking losses early matters a lot for October.
    • [47:06] Ben: “It is true that, like, it's meaningful to have a dip in your playoff odds this early in the season...it's not just getting one of their faded bad runs over and done with early.”
    • [54:36] Meg: “It's not nothing in terms of your...season long expectation of a club.”
  • Biggest Gainers: Guardians (+20.8 points), Rangers (+16.2), Brewers (+10.7), Yankees (+10)
    • Biggest Decliners: Red Sox (-13.2), Mariners (-13), Cubs (-11), Tigers (-10), Blue Jays (-8.4), Giants (-7)
• Injuries have compounded some teams’ woes (esp. Cubs, Blue Jays, Red Sox).

6. The Manager’s Microphone: Cultural Clashes and PR Lessons

• The transition of Tony Vitello from college coach to MLB manager (Giants):
  • Noted for candid, sometimes awkward candor and “college coach” energy, which might not always translate to a pro locker room (“calling players try-hards,” mentioning internal issues to the media, frequent references to college days).
    • [79:21] Meg: “I've been a little stymied by it because it did seem, at least in the initial, going like they were trying to position him.”
• In contrast, Boston’s Craig Breslow strikes the opposite pose: ex-player, but extremely front-office/analytic in his language, sometimes to a fault.
  • [60:07] Ben: “He just has the most...the idea of deploying our players in a way that maximizes positive outcomes by creating the most favorable matchups that we can...”
• The hosts ruminate on the variety of management/leader types and effects on clubhouse morale and fan confidence.

7. Fashion Statements: Brimless Caps, ABS, and On-Field Aesthetics

• The incipient trend of brimless baseball caps (not quite beanies—just baseball hats with the bills literally cut off), allegedly started by Dodgers’ Tanner Scott, now picked up by Edwin Díaz and others.
  • [88:48] Ben: “What do you make of this incipient trend toward brimless hats...It is not a beanie, it's just a cap...with the brim just sliced off...sort of like a fez hat.”
  • [92:13] Meg: “It looks weird. It looks weird for now, and then if it becomes common, it won't look weird anymore.”
• Playful debate over whether it’s a fashion innovation or a crime against hats.
• Brief coverage of City Connect jerseys—some hits (Baltimore), some misses (Brewers), general fatigue (“Let's take a little break from that particular shade of blue”).

8. Quirky Stat Blasts & Listener Follow-ups

• History of consecutive one-run losses (record: 7), coincidentally set by the 1919 Washington team.
• The Tigers' amusing streak: matching record and day-date (e.g., 4-5 on 4/5, 4-6 on 4/6, etc.), longest since 1904 Phillies.
  • [103:14] Ben: “...their record was 4 and 5 on April 5, which is April 5 in month month day day format, 4 and 6 on April 6, 4 and 7 on April 7, 4 and 8 on April 8, and 4 and 9 on April 9.”
• Report on pitchers wearing sunglasses—Marlins prospect Aiden May does for prescription reasons, with historical nod to Kei Igawa.
• Listener follow-up: the phrase “good piece of hitting” is being reclaimed to also praise pull-side power, not just weak opposite-field hits.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the rarity of mound charges:
  • Ben [01:00]: “This is the first mound charging in the majors in four years...It's endangered. It's almost extinct.”
• On baseball fight choreography:
  • Ben [10:29]: “Baseball brawls, the connection rate, the hit rate, it's got to be extremely low.”
• On contracts and generational wealth:
  • Meg [20:48]: “That has to be a profoundly strange thing. I guess the other thing I would say is like, it does speak to. And I'm, I'm not trying to...nag Pirates fans...But...he is a very young, young man.”
• On ABS helping short kings:
  • Ben [31:07]: “There was some question before the season about how this would affect players at the top or bottom of the height scale.”
  • Meg [40:34]: “It's truly one of the coolest things about baseball that there are...so many different kinds of bodies that can...not just make it to the majors, not just hang on at the major league level, but succeed and really thrive there.”
• On losing streaks and statistical significance:
  • Ben [47:06]: “It is meaningful to have a dip in your playoff odds this early in the season...It's not just getting one of their faded bad runs over and done with early.”
• On fashion trends in the clubhouse:
  • Ben [88:48]: “...It is not a beanie, it's just a cap...with the brim just sliced off...sort of like a fez hat.”
  • Meg [92:13]: “It looks weird. It looks weird for now, and then if it becomes common, it won't look weird anymore.”
• On the Tigers' numerical streak:
  • Ben [103:14]: “...their record was 4 and 5 on April 5, which is April 5 in month month day day format, 4 and 6 on April 6, 4 and 7 on April 7, 4 and 8 on April 8, and 4 and 9 on April 9.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:54 – Solaire-Lopez mound charge and ejection debate
• 09:00 – Solaire’s career domination vs. Lopez and history of their matchups
• 17:04 – Connor Griffin’s extension with Pittsburgh
• 31:07 – ABS impact on strike zones for short hitters
• 47:06 – Early changes in team playoff odds, effect of “banking” wins/losses
• 60:07 – Craig Breslow’s front-office speak and contrasting manager/speaker types
• 67:21 – Mariners’ one-run loss streak and offensive struggle
• 79:21 – Tony Vitello, the challenges of college coaches managing MLB teams
• 88:48 – Brimless caps trend discussion
• 103:14 – Unique Tigers’ streak (record matches date) & other stat oddities

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Listener Q&A and Fun Stat Blasts

• Mound charge ejection loopholes
• Pitchers wearing sunglasses (Aiden May)
• "Good piece of hitting" semantics
• Tigers’ day-date streak
• Consequences of early losing streaks for purported contenders

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Closing Tone & Takeaways

This episode showcased the playful, deeply informed banter that defines Effectively Wild—mixing serious statistical and tactical breakdowns with joyfully deadpan asides about bugs, baseball fight choreography, hats with no bills, and sacred traditions both on and off the field.
It’s an episode rich in inside jokes, accessible advanced analysis, and affectionate exasperation with the quirks of both baseball and the people who play and run it.

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Transcript

[Ben Lindbergh]

Cease was effectively wild early. He's really settled in. And Shohei has been effectively wild the whole game.

[Meg Riley]

Effectively wild a fan. Gosh. Beastball Podcast Listen our emails that blast pedantic baseball chat every weekday.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Break down your favorite pastime, sit down,

[Meg Riley]

relax and unwind as we learn how tawny

[Ben Lindbergh]

hello and welcome to episode 2463 of Effectively Wild a baseball podcast from Fangraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, joined by Meg Riley of fangraphs. Hello, Meg.

[Meg Riley]

Hello.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Let's charge straight into this episode like Jorge Hor Soler charging at Reynaldo Lopez.

[Meg Riley]

You're having a really great, totally flawless time.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Meg Riley]

Yep.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes. No one has heard me make any mistakes when this where this intro is concerned. So we'll just continue to just full speed ahead and throw some haymakers podcast wise. So this mound charge, which was according to John Boyce, who has developed a database of mound charges, this is the first mound charging in the majors in four years.

[Meg Riley]

Wow.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, it's. It's endangered. It's almost extinct. Obviously there are stiffer penalties when it comes to mount charging. There didn't really used to be rules against this. There have been rules against it for a while, automatic ejection, but they're cracking down on it now. We haven't seen it as much and maybe that's for the best. Maybe that's nice. It certainly gets people engaged. People are always interested in a mound charge, but we're in favor of a little less aggression and fisticuffs in general. Yeah, but in this case we had a double suspension. Both Solaire who did the charging, and Reynaldo Lopez who was the charged, they both received seven game suspensions, which they both appealed. And Lopez's at least has been dropped down to five games. And given that he is a starting pitcher, that's pretty toothless. That's means he might not actually miss anything.

[Meg Riley]

Maybe still loses pay though.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, that's true. But we got a question prompted by this man charging that I thought was kind of interesting. This is from Dylan who says a coworker and I were debriefing after the Solaire Lopez dust up and came up with a scenario we'd like to get your thoughts on. We found it curious that Lopez was ejected after being involved in the brawl. Of course, this is standard practice by all accounts and we can't remember the last time a player was involved in a fight and not ejected. But Lopez really had no choice in the matter. Once Solaire charged at him, he had to defend himself only to get run from the game. Also, it's not like he was ejected for the pitch being up and in. He was ejected for his participation in the brawl. Yeah, which I, I guess is true. He's not necessarily completely blameless. We can get into that in a second. But Dylan continues. That brings me to our question. Say a team has their ace on the bump in a must win game for the opponent. What would stop a batter on the opposing team from taking faux exception to a pitch inside, charging the mound and getting the other team's ace prematurely bounced from the game via ejection? Would there be any way for the pitcher who did nothing wrong in this case to keep himself in the game? If he just ran away from the charging batter, would he be allowed to stay in? I think he would. But could he live down the indignity of fleeing from a fight? Because all kinds of macho considerations come into play here.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, I worry that this is an exploitable vulnerability, you know, because the, the way, the way to avoid it is to assert one status as a small being. And I don't know that many of these, many of these men will, will opt for that. Now I also don't think that Jorge Soler is just like looking around going, you know, tonight's a good night for fighting. I imagine that there were some words said, you know, I imagine, yeah, there

[Ben Lindbergh]

were definitely some words said. We don't know what words, but he's by all accounts a somewhat peaceable man. Typically.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, yeah. I don't think Jorge Solaire has a reputation for being a rabble rouser or an instigator. Now that doesn't mean that he has to charge the mound. We are advocates on this podcast of emotional regulation in the workplace where one can offer it. But I, I don't suspect that he was completely unaware of what might happen. Right, you don't. Or if you are, I, I'll say this and I'm gonna do a swear, don't talk if you're not trying to start, you know, like, don't, don't, don't do that. Yeah, that's a recipe for problems. So I do, I do suspect that this is an exploitable vulnerability, although I imagine the reaction on the field would be very different. So maybe this is a circumstance that is unlikely to arise just by virtue of the fact that, you know, words, words were said. And so this was, you know, this was a, hey, we're going to do this. Okay, we're going to do this kind of A situation and not. I'm just standing here. What's your damage, Heather? How many references can I fit into one little exchange here? But I suspect it would be somewhat exploitable. But we've also seen. I guess we have also seen players go, what? What? What? What?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah, that's true. They don't necessarily run. They don't tuck tail.

[Meg Riley]

You know, they don't. They don't like. Like play possum or something or a roly poly bug.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right. Just curl up in a ball. Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

Thank you for knowing what I meant, because I'm given to understand that how one refers to that particular kind of insect has a regional flavor to it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, do.

[Meg Riley]

What do you call those? The roly poly books? Do you call them.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I'd probably say a pill bug, actually. But I know what you think.

[Meg Riley]

That's the split. I think that's the east west split on that roly poly. But you probably say catty corner.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I. Yeah, I guess I do. But apparently the. The pill bug or roly poly bug is from family Armadillidi.

[Meg Riley]

There is. They. They put armadillo in the name. That's delightful.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I love it. How is that. Any kind of bug that curls up as a protective.

[Meg Riley]

They're like. You know what that looks like? That looks like an armadillo. We got to call it that. That's great.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So you could do that. You could pull an armadilla, die maybe. And then probably. I don't think you would get suspended if you did just sort of. If you just took a dive, backed away or something. Unless you were seen to have instigated it, which in Lopez's case. So the. The history here. This was not unprovoked. Of course. Lopez says that he didn't throw on purpose, and his manager said that he didn't throw on purpose. Well, Weiss, by the way, just. He got in there, you know, he was trying to hold back Solaire. Solaire is a large man.

[Meg Riley]

Big guy. Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And Walt Weiss is just, like, doing the holding back.

[Meg Riley]

Walt Weiss is in there. Mike Trout is on the other side. And look, we could. We could all, you know, have a moment of concern there just given.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Be careful, Mike, please.

[Meg Riley]

Fragile. He has proven to be. But I do think that. That an underrated role in the. The fisticuffs. And, you know, we. We spend all this time talking about the. The bullpens coming out from the outfield because it's funny, and that's. That's fine. But an underrated role is in the. The de. Escalation of the benches clearing brawl. And this was as close to an actual brawl as we've gotten in a little while, although there's been some fighting in the early. Going here. Anyway, is the guy who's built like Trout. And I think, you know, just to invoke an AL west comp here, you know, Julio Rodriguez has sort of played this role in various Mariners, Astros conflagrations, where it's like the guy who looks like he could credibly play like linebacker, who just gets in there and is like, look, I will lift you up and move you if I need to, but we're gonna be. We're gonna be done with this nonsense now. And, you know, Trout has just like the. The veteran authority to do that and also does look like he's, you know, could play linebacker. Although I would worry about him getting just pulverized, getting his various injuries over the years.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes. Yeah. So there's a history here. There's a better pitch matchup history, namely that Solaire has just absolutely owned Lopez.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So they have faced each other 26 times, and Solaire is 14 for 23 with five home runs. Yeah, it's. It's been a massacre. Yeah. Absolute massacre. That's a 2045 OPS.

[Meg Riley]

Beautiful.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So Solaire has completely crushed Lopez. No hitter who has faced Lopez more than seven times has hit him that hard. And Solaire has. Has. Has faced him 26 times. So that's the history. And Slayer had hit a home run off of Lopez earlier in that game in the first inning. And then Lopez hit him with a 96 mile per hour fastball the next time. And then in this inciting incident, Lopez threw one high and tight. He said it wasn't on purpose, and Walt Weiss wal said it wasn't on purpose. But you can understand, I suppose, why Solaire would reach the opposite conclusion.

[Meg Riley]

Sure.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And also, Solaire was sort of staring at him. And what Solaire said was, I asked him if everything was okay. And the answer he gave me, I didn't like it. That's why I went out there. So I don't know exactly what the answer was, but he didn't like it. So, yeah, just saying, you know, Lopez maybe some. Some incriminating circumstances there, maybe was not completely innocent. And then, of course he did, you could say in self defense, but he did throw, throw some punches. None of these punches really landed.

[Meg Riley]

No.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Like baseball brawls, the connection rate, the hit rate, it's got to be extremely low. And I don't know if that's just because these are not practiced professional fighters or because their heart's not really in it and they're just trying to make a show of it more than they are actually trying to hurt someone. And they recognize the consequences of actually hurting someone. You probably run that suspension up even more. So even in the heat of the moment, even if they're seeing red, they don't quite pull their punches. But sort of, you know, maybe it's a mutual, let's make this look good kind of thing. But yeah, if you could document that. I don't know if John Boyce has run those numbers, but I'm guessing it would not be, would not be high. But it was sort of self defense. He still had the ball in his hand as he was throwing a punch the whole time. Yeah, but Dylan's strategy here of just sort of having a sacrificial lamb, kind of like, you know, in, in video games, I guess you'd call it going aggro, getting aggro, pulling aggro. It's like when you attract, attract attention from an enemy, you know, and, and so if you're just like a, a tank, like a character who can take a lot of damage, then you will, you'll go aggro and you'll just get one of the NPCs to attack you and you're kind of almost creating a diversion like you're, you're baiting, you're luring the NPC into a trap and then everyone else can go about their business. So if you did that and you could have your number nine hitter, you could have your worst hitter, you could even just have them in the lineup specifically to dupe the opposing ace into getting himself ejected. Now if it's a must win game, if it's a playoff game, high stakes, the umpires are probably going to go a little easier, be a little more lenient when it comes to, well, are we going to actually change the course of this game by taking out a great pitcher in the first inning? Maybe we'll just allow, you know, be a bit more liberal in what we allow here. But yeah, I think if someone charges you and, and you defend them off and you meet punches with punches, then I think probably you'd be headed for an ejection too. So, you know, it's not the worst. It'd be an underhanded way to win. I mean, I, I'd like to think that teams just for sportsmanship reasons would not want to stoop to the level of just trying to get someone thrown out in this way. Intentionally provoking them. But would it work? Maybe.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah. And. And again, I want to. I don't want to overstate the case. I think the circumstances under which it happens are narrow because again, you need to. You need to be. Well, you need to be intimidating. Right? So it can't just be any, you know, guy in the nine hole like you kind of. I think you have to be built like Jorge Slaire. Because if. If what you're doing is instigating a. A brawl from first principles, basically, right. There's no, there's no pitch that preceded it that was borderline and a little too close for Com. The guy hasn't said anything. No one's mother has been invoked. Yeah. If you're just like, saying, hey, I'm gonna. I'm gonna pull aggro. I don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I think that's one way to say it.

[Meg Riley]

Pull aggro. Okay, well, we're gonna leave that alone. But it's gonna be. It's gonna be in the back of my head the rest of the day, and I'm gonna be worried about gamers. But if you're gonna pull aggro, you have to, like, in some ways, like, it inspire almost a self defense reaction from whoever is on the mound, right? To be like, oh, okay, holy. We're doing this. I guess I gotta, I gotta respond. You know, I. I wonder if you're. You're almost triggering the. The fight or flight more than you are, like, insulting the. The particular brand of masculinity we see most often in the big league context. We're like, you know, so.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, so if you had maybe your hitter who was also right.

[Meg Riley]

I'm just, I'm just envisioning the picture, like, doing the thing that older siblings do where they, like, hold their. This isn't familiar to you, but, like, imagine a movie you've seen, you know, where you hold your younger sibling out by their forehead, basically, and they're trying to swing at you, and you're like, all right, buddy. Like, yeah, tire yourself out here. Let's get tuckered and. And move on with our day, you know, like, it's a. It is. Is as I talk about it more, I think maybe a narrower circumstance. And I wonder if the umpire would be like, hey, what are you doing, man? Because sometimes, you know, this is an underrated part of this, of this little fight that Craig Goldstein pointed out. Jonah Heim was just like, this is not my freaking problem, you guys. Like, what are you doing?

[Ben Lindbergh]

You. You.

[Meg Riley]

I'm not Getting in the middle of this. And often a catcher will come out and sort of try to play cop and sometimes the umpire just gets out there right away. The fact that Solaire was allowed to charge as chargy as he was, is kind of surprising to me. And I wonder if the home plate umpire was like, that's a big man. I'm not.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Look. Well, you guys, you get in there.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, yeah. Come on, wall. Isn't this your problem? And it's funny because Solaire, I mean, Solaire was a brave for a while.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, it's true. Well, I, I think if you were transparently trying to do this and drawing someone into a fight, then maybe it wouldn't work so well. Yeah. Or if you did, you have to fight fire with fire. Fight fists with fists probably. And if you just sort of stood there and stood your ground on the mound, but yeah, maybe just fended them off in a fairly non violent, de escalatory way, then maybe you wouldn't immediately be ejected. Especially if they were trying to now, if they waited until a pitch got away from you or something and there was one inside just to make it look a little more convincing then maybe. But it's just a pitch down the middle and you're like, you know, trying to turn it into a thing, right?

[Meg Riley]

At a certain point it's like, hey, just, just focus on your plate appearance, guy.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Meg Riley]

Like this is all this subterfuge, all this potential draw. Just, just focus on the task at hand and try to hit this guy. That's probably a better use of your time and energy than. Yeah, I don't recommend this into fight, you know, like, come on.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, don't want to win this way.

[Meg Riley]

Be a man, you know, be a grow. Be a grown ass man and just do your job. Just do your job.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, we know a grown ass man who is still a teenager, but nonetheless, we know now the extension is official.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And Connor Griffin is a Pittsburgh Pirate for many, many years. And they have not really stuck their, their necks out here. Their, their giant, thick, massive necks. They have awarded an extension to Griffin that I think if he turns into anything like the player he's supposed to, will work out quite well for the Pirates. Which is not to say that this is highway robbery or anything. I think it's, you know, it's an appropriate term and everything. I think it should work out well for the Pirates. As long as Griffin turns into the kind of player everyone thinks he will, then, yeah, I think, you know, they'll be getting him at quite a discount here, but it's nine years. It's 140 million. There are some escalators and incentives. MVP escalators could go up another 10 million max, but that's it. And it's pretty simple. There are no options, there are no deferrals, nothing like that. There's a $12 million signing bonus that's paid out over a few years, but basically that's that. And this will make him a free agent after his age 28 season. So entering his age 29 season, this buys out his first three free agent years, but he will reach free agency barring a subsequent extension early enough to.

[Meg Riley]

Before he's 30.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, a massive mega deal here. And that's. That's on purpose. His agents, I think we're looking out for him there. And he can double dip and get even more rich at some point. But yeah, I mean, I'm happy for Pirates fans who now do not have to start some mental countdown clock here and can just enjoy Connor Griffin being a Pittsburgh Pirate for years and years. And obviously he and his representatives were happy and satisfied with the terms. And it is the biggest contract in Pirates history, which is not saying much, obviously, but beating Brian Reynolds's record. Yes. Yeah. And it does make me wonder, will this make it easier for them to convince others to stay? Is Paul Skeen suddenly thinking, huh, okay, well, if Connor's sticking around for years to come, then maybe this is somewhere I would want to be. Or even other free agents they might try to woo in future off seasons. Maybe just having that foundational franchise player locked up for years to come, maybe that makes that a more appealing proposition. But yeah, the deal is done as we sort of expected based on all the buzz and the smoke that be some fire here.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, Buzz and smoke and buzz and smoke. So I think a couple of things about this I do. I don't know that it will necessarily sway skins in particular, but I think that you are making a statement about your credibility as a franchise by committing a dollar amount that big. Now you need the next big contract to really seal the deal on that, Right? If you have a guy, if you have one guy on your roster making that much, you know, and what a. What a strange. Can we just take a moment to appreciate how odd it must be to be this young man who is soon to be 20, but is not yet 20. Right. To be this young man and to be the highest paid guy in the clubhouse by like a not small margin. That has to be profoundly strange. A guy with 22 big league plate appearances to his name, you know, and you're the, you're the guy with the biggest contract in the room. That has to be at least a little bit odd.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And imagine being 19 and just being set for life personally and professionally.

[Meg Riley]

Right? I can't imagine being married at 19. We won't linger. We're not gonna linger on that conversation because it's none of my business. But I'm just saying I was a very.

[Ben Lindbergh]

No, it's just, just get everything done. Just get it all out of the way. It's just generational wealth, you know. Sign a long term deal with your employer. Sign a long term deal with your high school sweetheart. A lifetime deal. You hope you vow, you know, term deal.

[Meg Riley]

Now there, I suppose that one could argue, well, hey there, there are guys who are making more money this year in that clubhouse. There's exactly one. Thanks, Mitch Keller. But, but, but it has, that has to be a profoundly strange thing. I, I guess the other thing I would say is like, it does speak to. And I'm, I'm not trying to, like this is going to make it sound like I'm like nagging Pirates fans or, or, or given the, the front office, the business. And I can just imagine the people in the Pirates front office being like, meg, shut up. Can't we do anything right? This is not that. It, I think it speaks to the profound confidence that the Pirates have and I think that that is a justifiable confidence. Like, we love this kid, right? Everybody loves this kid. Everybody thinks. And I'm saying kid, and I know that that's a silly thing because he's married and like has $140 million contract. But like he is a very young, young man.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, he is just speed running life milestones. But yes, he's still very young.

[Meg Riley]

He's still quite young. And I think it speaks to the profound confidence they have. And you might think, oh, that's obvious. But there are teams in baseball and not just the Dodgers where if a, a large contract goes sideways on them, it's not good, but it's survivable. Pittsburgh has decided they are not in that category of team. Right. If $140 million contract goes south on them, that's like profoundly destabilizing to their future payroll picture. So they, they trust this guy. They think that this is the dude. And I think that they're gonna be proven correct on that score. Right. I think that Connor is going to be a franchise altering player for them. I do think it makes it easier for them to say with a straight face to the next free agent they want to sign. Hey, we're serious here. You know, we think that we have the beginnings of something really special. The proof is going to be in the pudding on that. And there are bad teams that have like one guy who's getting paid. So they, they do need to continue to supplement their existing big league roster with viable role players. They need to draft and develop well. They need to do other stuff. This is not a sufficient condition for franchise success. But I do think that keeping guys like Connor Griffin around is a necessary condition and they are satisfying that. And I'm sure they're like, hey, bring your grievance now. Mlbp. You know, I'm sure that there's some strategy to it in that respect too. But, you know, giving your, your fan base a dude and saying, you can go, you can go buy this guy's jersey, you can do that and you can feel confident in that choice. That is, I think, a really important thing. And no disrespect to Brian Reynolds, but I think that the odds that Connor Griffin is relevant to the national conversation of baseball in a way that really only skeens is otherwise on this team. And that's not meant to disrespect their other good pitchers, but like, they got two now. That's very exciting. Yeah, they might, they might be able to, to go do something now, you know, and hey there, as we're recording this on Thursday, they're seven and five, you know. Oh, yeah, you know, they have a better record than the Seattle Mariners.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They do. Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

We'll get to that later. But. And the Detroit Tigers. Right. There are a bunch of teams that we thought were going to be like, big, big, big. And there's, you know, kind of floundering in the early going here. Whether, you know, those fortunes will continue all season, I'm sure we'll talk about. But it's quite exciting. 19. I just. Can I offer, Can I say something? Everybody? The circle of trust ready for everyone. There are lots of reasons why people opt not to consume alcohol, and I think that those are perfectly fine reasons. One should not feel pressured to do that. I do wonder if it's like a not unreasonable life rule to say that you maybe should at least have the option to do that legally at your wedding before you get. I'm just, it's very, I'm just. It's very young. It's. It's very young. But also many happy returns, you know, to your, to your contract, to your wedding.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah. I Mean, obviously, the, my goodness, the success rates, marriage wise, when you get married that young, tend to be a little lower, but probably I think it's

[Meg Riley]

higher though for big leaguers.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right?

[Meg Riley]

That young.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Especially if you sign a ginormous extension because money can be a real source of stress in a relationship. Right. And it shouldn't be now for Connor Griffin.

[Meg Riley]

So, no, I would, I would think not. So I hope, I hope it goes well. And yes, I would imagine that the success rates in this particular demo diverge from the average pretty meaningfully.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, baseball players, they, they have to grow up early in a lot of respects, so they do, especially if you're that good, that young. So, yeah, the Pirates, they have the sixth most starting pitcher war thus far. It's very early, but it has more or less looked like, yeah, they have good starting pitching and do they have enough of everything else? The bullpen has been quite bad and the position players have been middle of the pack. But that's why you call up Connor Griffin, I guess, and hope for the best. And Dan Sorski ran the Zips projected terms and zips suggested eight years and 142 million. So one year less. And that year is pretty important because that would be a free agent year tacked on the end and he's projected to be a star. And so Dan said that, you know, Zips would tack on another 40 million for one more year. So that's why I say it's perhaps a little light. And if he turns into one of the best players in baseball, then, yeah, it'll be a pretty steep discount, but he'll do okay. And also he'll get another bite at the apple. And I am interested because the timing of this is curious, of course, because as we noted last time, Buster only reported that this extension was done. Yeah, last week, Thursday, before Griffin actually made his major league debut. And then he deleted that tweet and there was no more about it. And in Ken Rosenthal's piece for the Athletic, he notes a contract agreement before his major league debut would have nullified the prospect, promotion, incentive eligibility, as we said last time. But one person briefed on the negotiations said the deal was not completed until 6:30pm Eastern on Tuesday night. That one person was Bob Nutting. I don't know, you know, probably someone. Now, I'm sure that's technically true. I'm sure that they didn't sign on the dotted line until Tuesday night or whenever because they wanted to preserve that ppi. And I don't particularly care. I'm not the PPI police here. So, you know, like, if this deal was agreed to and for all intents and purposes done before he was actually called up, and then they held off on announcing it so that they could get the extension while still retaining the eligibility for those incentives. I mean, you know, it's on MLB to. To crack down on that if it wants to. I don't particularly care. I'm not super scandalized by that. But, you know, it's. It's curious timing, right, when. Yeah, only predicted or reported the exact last week before his debut, and then that wasn't announced until days later. Like, clearly there was some sort of framework in place. Right. And so if I were MLB and I were trying to be a stickler for these regulations, I probably would do some investigating about whether this is actually, you know, eligible for that or not and satisfies all those conditions. But, hey, if they get away with it, I guess good for him.

[Meg Riley]

I wonder, and I say this without any inside information, but I wonder if there is a fairly robust mole hunt going on in the Pirates front office because, I mean, somebody talked to Buster and Delete. You know, you can delete all the tweets you want, buddy. Like, we all love that tweet. We all. Yeah, well, we saw that tweet. And so, you know, sort of jumping the gun on that leak could have very real implications for that front office. Now, at the end of the day, you've decided that you're gonna keep Connor Griffin around so you don't have the, like, service time consideration that they ended up kind of botching with skins, where he just ended up getting a full year of service anyway, even though he wasn't brought up within the time frame for a PPI pick. So, you know, you don't care about that. You've, you know exactly how much service time you have with Connor Griffin.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You've.

[Meg Riley]

You've made a decision about that. But that draft pick is. Is valuable, particularly for a franchise that still has, as we've noted, work to do to bolster the big league roster. And so that might be a really bad mistake to have made. So.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes. Yeah, you don't want to. If you're trying to do a little bit of, you know, let's sit on this news until.

[Meg Riley]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. And then that comes out. That could. Yeah, that could be bad.

[Meg Riley]

You'd probably investigate how that happened. But so anyway, head on a swivel. Pirates front office.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So one little ABS observation here. There was some question before the season about how this would affect players at the top or bottom of the height scale.

[Meg Riley]

Yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And people were saying, well, will this help Jose Altuve? Will this help the smaller hitters or will this help Aaron Judge and the big hitters? Anyone with a notably non standard strike zone who maybe was getting jobbed previously.

[Meg Riley]

What a lovely way of putting that. What a nice non judgmental way of putting that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, non standard. Could be a super size strike zone, could be a honey, I shrunk the strike zone. But one way or another, you know you were going to be getting some, some pitches called strikes on you that probably weren't quite fair. Just because it's hard for umpires to have individualized zones for, for everyone and dramatically different sized people. And Mike Petriello wrote about this a couple times just using the AAA data and the spring training data and his conclusion was that this would help the shorter guys and not necessarily the taller guys. He just looked at the challenge rates and it, it just seemed like the shorter guys were having more success with challenging than the taller guys. And so that was kind of his conclusion. And that seems to have been borne out in Jose Altuve's case at least because he's off to a fantastic start. He's one of those, the top 10 hitters in baseball this year. He has a 204 WRC plus as we speak here on Thursday afternoon in 13 games. And also he is getting a more favorable strike zone called. So this does seem to be playing out the way that one would have expected and not necessarily just directly from challenges he has issued, although he has been one of the more frequent challengers. He actually said, I think coming into the year that he didn't expect to challenge that much, but he trails the major league leader by one. He has issued four challenges and he has been correct three times. So although looking at where those challenges were, you might expect that they would have been on high pitches that were called strikes on him. They actually weren't. They were on low pitches or pitches to the side. But they have gone his way more often than not, those challenges. But I think it's less because of the specific pitches that he has challenged and just because I think umpires are just more mindful of this now because they know that the challenge system is there and that if they screw this up, they're going to get embarrassed in front of everyone.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so you can kind of see it if you look at baseball savant. So I, I looked all seasons, this is his, what, 16th major league season. So I looked at just the called strike rate on pitches that he has taken. And this year it's 29.4%. That is the second lowest called strike rate on taken pitches. On Altuve, only 2016 was lower. And then if you get more specific and you do pitches that were not in the strike zone, in the rule book zone that were called strikes on him, pitches that he took this year, only 4.9% of pitches that he took outside the rule book zone have been called strikes. And that is the lowest rate of his career thus far. And you know, small sample we're talking, yeah, five called strikes out of 102 total pitches satisfying these criteria. So, you know, change it by a couple pitches and outcomes and, and this would look different, but it is, I think meaningful maybe that this is the lowest rate thus far of his career. And I, I think this is actually paying dividends for him. And he has walked more often than he has struck out. He has walked way more than he's ever walked in a full season before. I'm not saying these numbers are going to hold up and that he's suddenly going to be a 200 WRC plus and almost 400 BABIP guy or that he's going to be walking a Juan Soto rate or anything like that. It's a hot start to a season. It's 57 plate appearances. But coupled with the expectation that this would benefit him and coupled with the observation that he is getting more favorable calls than he had in the past, I think there's something to this. I think there's some signal amid the noise here. And you know, he's obviously on the downside of his career here in the backside of his career. And last year he had a, a weak year at the plate. It was a down year by his standards. And he's 35 and so, you know, almost 30 turns 36 in a month or so. And there is a question of how much does he have left. And obviously defense not really his strong suit. I think this could kind of give him a second wind maybe, you know, and help compensate somewhat for declining skills.

[Meg Riley]

You know, you have this like perfect storm with him where he has a non standard strike.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

And also is sort of on the downside of his career and the margins matter more there. Right. Or maybe it's better said that you have less margin for error. And so if you are able to extract small concessions in the count, well, that can, that can matter for anyone and particularly maybe for, for someone like Altuve where it's like if you can boost your own base percent, you Just have a, a better, maybe more reliable way to have value at the plate. I, I could see that making a difference. Difference. My suspicion would be that it is more about bringing that non standard zone in line with a standard zone than it is like any particular boost or degradation relative to skill. But it, it does make sense to me that it would matter more, you know?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah. And Bradley Woodrum wrote this week for BP about the strike zone and it seems to be a, a bit taller and skinnier this season as umpires have been more mindful of this because really the, the zone itself has changed. It's confusing because the rules say that it's still a 3D zone and just if you pass through any part of that space, then it's a strike the way it was before. Yeah, they haven't really changed the rule book definition of the zone. It's just that there's this ABS zone which is sort of separate because it is just a flat plane in the middle of the plate and it's custom more precisely now and calibrated based on the actual measurements of the hitter. And so you do have sort of separate definitions of the zone now. But I think the definition of the zone that umpires are using on all pitches now is very much influenced by the definition of the zone for challenge purposes, because now they're subject to challenges on any pitch. So they kind of have to call it the way that it is according to the challenge system all the time. So it has been actually a bit taller and skinnier in general, but for Altuve specifically. And there was another BP piece about Altuve this week by Jarrett Seidler. I think for Altuve it has led to a bit of a lower zone just because he's not having a standard strike zone called on him, even though he is smaller. So that's interesting because imagine if it turns out, if he does have sort of a resurgence here, and it turns out that actually, yeah, he was kind of playing on hard mode all those years, not just by being shorter than the typical player, but because he was actually having an unfair disadvantage because umpires weren't calling the strike zone on him the way that it should have been called. That would make his career look even more impressive in retrospect and statistically. I mean, he's, I think, a Hall of Famer as it is, assuming that he does not get dinged too much for the banging scheme. And I don't know, given that that Beltran is in now and that there's reporting about Altuve, you know, not doing anything to stop the banging scheme, but also not really making that much use of it himself. And there's reporting about that also there's the actual audio and, and he was not getting the bangs as much during his plate appearances as a lot of other players were. So if you give him any special dispensation for that, or if you just time passes and it's not seen as a disqualifying thing, then I think he, he'd be Bo Cooper stone anyway. But, but if this sort of props up this decline phase of his career, right, then that would make his accomplishments look even more impressive, especially because then we could apply that in theory to all the past seasons and say, wow, he was that good, even though he had this going against him. Imagine if he had had this quote, unquote, fair zone the entire time, then he might have been that much better. So, yeah, it's just, it's impressive. You know, aside from, from the banging scheme stain, I have quite enjoyed Jose Altuve's career. It just, yeah, we're always in favor of non standard sized players, right, and, and non standard skill sets and everything. So I'm happy that a player shaped like him can not just make it to the majors, but succeed and be excellent there.

[Meg Riley]

So we've said this before, but we'll keep saying it. It is truly one of the coolest things about baseball that there are, are so many different kinds of bodies that can, you know, look and, and do and not just like make it to the majors, not just hang on at the major league level, but succeed and really thrive there and be, you know, future hall of Famers. It is one of the profoundly cool things about the sport. I do wonder what Altuve's hall of Fame discourse is going to be like. I don't think that we have, have. We have really gotten like the full flavor of a banging scheme player. You know, with Beltron, it was like he was at the end of his career, you know, he hadn't been a participant in that. I think there's this suspicion that, you know, there was malfeasance we didn't know about and that it is kind of coloring the way that some people engage with and understand the, the success that players on that team had before the banging scheme was uncovered. And, you know, maybe it continue to affect them in perpetuity, I don't know. So it'll be interesting to see sort of how we talk about, how we talk about these guys and the idea that we might introduce a narrative of like, actually Altuve might have been even better if it hadn't been unfair. Is that is going to short circuit a particular kind of online person's brain. I just want you to be prepared for what that district is going to be like.

[Ben Lindbergh]

No pun intended.

[Meg Riley]

No pun intended. I will not make fun of the Short Kings. He, you know, it's so funny because it's like he, he was a party to this massive, massive, you know, destabilizing, terrible thing. But he's honest about his height. So like, who can really know the heart of a man? Although he did stand there next to Bregman and let him just say, yeah, I'm six foot. And I was like, all right buddy. But maybe that's just like you gotta, you gotta live in a clubhouse, you know?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, exactly.

[Meg Riley]

Like, you see this, you see this fellow Shortish King over here? And this is not a knock on the Short Kings, okay? This is, that's not, I'm not trying to take any non standard zone. Beautiful. You know, we don't have judgment, we have admiration. It's a harder thing to do, you know, really. It's like what you look at Aaron Judge, you're like, of course he's good at baseball. Look at that Giant man. Although the strike zone thing is I can hear the Yankees fans being like his own, been unfair the whole time. What if Aaron Judge's zone has been unfair this whole.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Meg Riley]

You ever think of that, Ben?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, and I'll talk about that in a second. It's true, Beltron. That was his, the last year of his career. He didn't do anything to burnish his hall of Fame credentials when he was with the Astros. If anything, just the opposite. I mean, just purely as a player, because he was bad that year. He was a sub replacement level player. So his hall of Fame, he was too busy cheating maybe. So his hall of Fame resume, performance wise, was set before he got there. On the other hand, he was seen as one of the instigators and one of the architects of that scheme. So that's what really helped. Held him back, I think. But didn't hold him back for that long, obviously. Yeah. When it comes to Judge, so. Because that's another where, okay, he's already established himself as maybe the best hitter ever. Best right handed hitter ever. Imagine if he too was. And, and he was getting jobbed sometimes. Obviously because of his height, but I think not as much as Altuve was. Like if you just, just. So I looked over the past five seasons, 21 to 25, and looked at the highest rate of called strikes on taking pitches outside the strike zone. And Altuve was close to the top 10. He was 11th minimum. I don't know, 2,000 pitches. There were like 240 qualifiers and Altuve was, was 11th with 7.5% of those pitches were called strikes erroneously on him. Whereas Judge was more kind of. He was still elevated, but not as elevated as Altuve, ironically. But yeah, he was like in the top 50 but wasn't getting job quite as often as Altuve was. And Judge, over the same spin, actually had one of the highest rates of in zone ball calls because he just has such a huge zone that there were balls that should have been called strikes that weren't. And then if you look at this year, I think there's not as much of a case that he's getting a much more favorable zone too. If you look at just the called strike rate for him on pitches outside the zone, it's not notably lower than it usually is. It's kind of middle of the pack in all the seasons of his career. And, and if you look at just the called strike rate period on called pitches this year, it's not that notable. In fact, it's still pretty high. It's the second highest, I guess rate. He's. He's had 32.1% called strikes just on pitches that he has taken this year, which is the second highest of his career after 2016. So yeah, it's not as notable a difference. And he hasn't challenged as much either. He's only challenged twice. He's been right both times. And both times it was pitches just below the zone. Yeah, that and he got them overturned after they were called strikes and they were actually balls. But you know, I think it should help him maybe a little bit. And he's off to a good start. I mean he's got a 144 WRC plus which is like ho hum for Aaron Judge.

[Meg Riley]

But shabby though.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Very good for just about anyone else. But yeah, yeah, given what Petriello found previously, I think it seems like this will probably benefit the short kings maybe more than the tall Kings. And in fact the guy who I think had the highest rate of called strikes outside the zone on taken pitches, at least if you set the minimum to a thousand, was Nick Madrigal, who is also a short king and a guy that I was hoping would be good and then hasn't been. But yeah, 11.2% of pitches on Nick Madrigal that he has taken outside the zone were called strikes over the Past five seasons. So he needs the challenge system too. Anyway, early returns, small sample caveats abound. But it does appear that that is holding up and that the shortcut guys are getting a boost, which, you know, they need because it's still a slight disadvantage, you know, so they need a boost.

[Meg Riley]

They need.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, a little booster seat.

[Meg Riley]

They need a boost.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay. So we said last time that we would take a look now that we're two full weeks into the season. You know, some people, they do the, the panic meter and the confirmation bias check ins after one week or, or one weekend even. But not us. Not us here at Effectively Wild. We're very demure, very mindful, and so we wait two full weeks to do our. Should you panic about these teams, And I won't even call it that, really. We're just looking at the teams that have hurt themselves or helped themselves the most. And we'll look at the changes since opening day according to the fangraph's playoff odds. And this is largely based on who has won and lost games, but also also injuries. Injuries are coming into play here and there's been a wave of pretty demoralizing interest. Yeah, everyone is hurt. It's been pretty bad.

[Meg Riley]

I mean, I, I, Ben, I do not care for it. Everybody is hurt. What is going on?

[Ben Lindbergh]

A lot of stars, a lot of load bearing members of rosters, as you might say. Kate Horton done for the year, having ACL surgery.

[Meg Riley]

I mean, that's Zac Eflin done for the year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, big blow to the Cubs. Big blow to the Orioles. Matthew Boyd also on the IL for the Cubs with a biceps issue. And then we talked about Cody Ponce last time and all the injuries befalling the Blue Jays. Alejandro Kirk, also out for several weeks with a fracture. So that's. And then the Astros, Hunter Brown shut down for a few weeks with shoulder issues. That's always scary. And Christian Javier, removed from his most recent start with shoulder tightness, too. And then judo. Not serious, but he's on the IL with a calf issue. Mookie bets with an oblique issue. Yeah, it's just, it's one after another. So this is, this is not good. And that plays into the playing time projections and thus the playoff odds as well. But yeah, let's just look here. Changes since opening day. We've have some double digits, digit changes, and you know, it's, it's hard to affect your fortunes one way or another. But as Dan Sborski documented in another recent post for FanGraphs headlined Yes, Penance can be lost in April. It is true that, like, it's meaningful to have a, a dip in your playoff odds this early in the season because there is a school of thought, as Dan noted in his piece, that it's just variants and everyone's bound to have, have hot streaks and, and cold streaks and slumps. And so it's just like you're just getting one of those out of the way, basically. Yeah, but I don't think that's actually the case. I mean, that's kind of almost a gambler's fallacy thing. Just because you have had a slow start to the season doesn't mean you're due and you're going to make it up later. And it means that you're probably true talent wise, more or less the same as you were expected to be. It's not as if anyone has really affected their projections of their actual quality, but it's just some teams have banked wins and some teams have banked losses, and then you just sort of reset more or less and okay, now we have the same rest of season projection, but we're starting from a different baseline than we were on opening day. And as Dan noted, that that does actually affect things. And I thought was clever of him. He put it into perspective by noting that the changes in playoff probability after even one week in April, that's essentially equivalent to the changes that you see at the trade deadline. So we, we make such a fuss about trade deadline acquisitions and subtractions, but it doesn't mean that much usually because, you know, it's only a few months with that player. And so we've already seen teams now with two weeks into the season have their playoff odds swing about twice as much as you would see for the, the top team that change their fortunes at the trade deadline. So we should be making as much of these early season results as we do about that. Yeah. And, and he looked at all the teams. So he found going back to over the past 20 years or so that he has been running standing projections with zips. And he found all 83 teams with a median outcome of 90 or more wins going into the season. And he looked at their worst performances in April, 26 of them finished the month with a losing record. And he says for most of those teams, it wasn't just getting one of their faded bad runs over and done with early. From a preseason average projected win total of 92.5 wins, they had an average finish of 85.2 wins with slightly less than a third of them, 8 of 26 finishing with at least 90 wins and only 3 of the 26 came back and did beat their preseason win projections after their slow starts. So not to depress anyone who, whose team is off to a terrible start, it's. It's not insuperable, but it's also not, not meaningless. So. So the teams that have hurt their fortunes the most and the teams that have helped their fortunes the most tend to be corresponding ones that are going head to head with the ones that have hurt their fortunes. But yeah, the Red Sox, so they have salvaged their start slightly since we alluded to it last time. They've won a couple games, but they're still 4 and 8 on the season and it's been pretty rough for them. And they're down 13.2 percentage points of playoff odds and they're also in the double digits in division odds and that's rough in the AL east, which is.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Expected to be competitive as ever. They have been helped by the fact that the Blue Jays have also lost about 8.4% percentage points and are themselves off to a rough start 5 and 7 with the aforementioned injuries. So that has kind of blunted the impact of the Red Sox slow start maybe, but it has been frustrating, I think, for a lot of Red Sox fans because the expectations for this team were, I think, appropriately high.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, I, I think I picked them to win the World Series before the season started. I immediately flush all of my predictions when it happens. Um, of all of the teams that have had a bad go of it in the early going, I think this is the one that has surprised me the most. Just because my expectations were, were so high and off. I thought that all their pitching would be good if only because they had so much of it. And yet they have allowed four and a half runs a game. They have a negative run differential. It's not the orange run overall in the sport. Oh, white socks buddies. But then the Blue Jays are right there. What a weird beginning. You know, it feels very topsy turvy. And I don't mean to discount any of what you just said, which is really what Dan has said. I think that that's right, that it, you know, maybe it doesn't alter your true talent expectation of a team, but it's not nothing, right? It's not nothing in terms of your, you know, sort of season long expectation of a club. But some of these teams, I. They're. What, Ben? What?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, it's not great.

[Meg Riley]

Except for the White Sox at negative 29. From our own differential perspective, you're like, that's seems right. I know that. Yep.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's where I it's not great when you're, you're opening day starter Shane Smith has already been optioned to the Miners about a week into April. That's not ideal.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah. Yeah. Their projected run differential is negative 115, which feels bad, I would expect. Oh no, that's the rest of season. Their projected full season run differential is negative 1. 44. That's the white socks, not the red socks. But you know, what if. What if all the socks are going to do badly. What if. What if. Yeah, the Pope can't the, you know, this is just proof that the Pope is like got has bigger fish to fry. The Pope's not like trying to intervene. You, you. Did you see the Popet?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, I see they're giving away the Popet. Yes.

[Meg Riley]

Isn't that, doesn't that feel a little risky? Doesn't that feel a little. I saw it. I, I, I saw it and I'm

[Ben Lindbergh]

was like slightly sacrilegious maybe, but I

[Meg Riley]

don't know about that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

For all I know, they ran it by him. I mean, maybe he's all for it. He's, you know, he's a sports Pope.

[Meg Riley]

Not my I more than anything that the Pope was too busy doing more important stuff to be like, yeah, I'll approve the promo. I bet they, they probably talk to whoever the like Archbishop of Chicago is though. I bet they, they must have run it up some Catholic flag pole. Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

He has been photographed wearing a White Sox cap in the full Pope regalia. But not. Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

He hasn't altered the Pope hat, though.

[Ben Lindbergh]

No.

[Meg Riley]

That I'm sure has a specific name anyway. The Red Sox.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. It's a Deborah Izing start because you start the season and hopes are high and then you blow a bunch of games and, you know, Durbin's not hitting and it's just I wouldn't make too much of it, even though I just said that it is actually meaningful, but I wouldn't.

[Meg Riley]

But I do think that of, of the clubs that had playoff not just aspirations, but I think expectations. Right. Like, I think that Boston probably assumed going into the season we're going to play in October. And to be clear, that may well still come to pass. But I think that to your point, of all the teams that are like kind of on, on shaky ground, the ones in the AL east are the ones that I would be the most alarmed by internally if I worked for one of those clubs. Just because it is such a knockdown drag out kind of division. Of course, a stupid Yankees are up there at the top at 8 and 4, which neither of us wanted to draft in the fun draft.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, we said they'd be good. Just maybe that they wouldn't be that fun, but that they'd be. I guess you'd call the Pope hat. A miter.

[Meg Riley]

A miter.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. I saw Bauman make a pun about Sergio Mitre, which is spelled the same way as the Pope had, but not

[Meg Riley]

pronounced the same way. Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Works better in print.

[Meg Riley]

Chicago Pope. I'm still not used to that, Ben. I'm still not used to the. I'm still not used to the Chicago Pope because every time, you know, the Pope speaks in an official capacity, I. Well, I'm never listening to the Pope. Not like I'm not listening. Like, I think, you know, as popes go, I'm in on this Pope so far. So I don't mean it like, I'm not paying attention to or minding what he says. Although I don't really, like, mind the Pope. That's not my thing. Don't disrespect intended. But I'm not hearing him right. I'm not, like, listening to audio of the Pope. I'm just, like, reading statements, and they read, like Pope statements. They read like the. The Pontiff. And then I have to remember that he, like, has an opinion on Jerry Reinsdorf. Yeah, that's absolutely wild. It's still wild. I am not totally convinced because if. If listeners remember, I was on vacation when this Pope was named the Pope, like when the smoke came out of the chimney and everything. And normally when. When I'm on vacation, something happens online where I just have to, as I've said, protect to understand it for the rest of my life. Like the Rizzler. Still don't know if I have that quite figured out or Riz. Generally. Are those related? Don't tell me. I'm not convinced that this Pope isn't just a big, long prank on me, but I'm being pranked in a nice way, and J.D. vance is being. Is being pranked, like, in a way that feels like divine retribution. So maybe it's all. Maybe it's fine. Maybe it's fine, you know? Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Now, did you hear Craig Breslow's.

[Meg Riley]

I thought you were going to say something about J.D. vance. I have, and it is the least charismatic, terrifying thing I've ever heard in my life. That's not what you're going to say, though.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Least charismatic is debatable because Craig Breslow.

[Meg Riley]

That is the. You cannot say that even as a joke. That is so mean to Craig Breslow to compare. I am sorry, this episode is off the rails.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You cannot fellow. I've got no problem with Craig Breslow. I've interviewed him, sure. But, but in terms of just pure

[Meg Riley]

speaking charisma, I have confidence in Craig Bresla's ability to go into a donut shop and order like a normal human being.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe not say the same thing about

[Meg Riley]

our vice president, but when he talks

[Ben Lindbergh]

about his baseball team, it sounds, it's the most. You know how we talk about like front office speak.

[Meg Riley]

Yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And he just has the most. Most.

[Meg Riley]

I know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So that kind of the idea of deploying our players in a way that maximizes positive outcomes by creating the most favorable matchups that we can is a term, you know, that, that I would call optimization. And I think that's synthesizing analytical information. It's synthesizing the real time feedback that we would be getting from our players. And our coaches are interacting with each other every single day to ensure that we're doing that and making sure that we're not leaving wins on the table. And it's odd because he's a former player.

[Meg Riley]

I know, and I know that he

[Ben Lindbergh]

was, was, you know, analytically oriented and everything as a player, but did he talk like this when he was in uniform, like in a clubhouse? Was it. What were the other players thinking? Is he overcompensating for the fact that he's a former player? And so he's like, I gotta turn up the front office. Speak to. To 11 here.

[Meg Riley]

I don't know if you know this, but he did go to Yale.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I am aware because it was mentioned every time he pitched during his career. But, but even so, it, yeah, it's the most like business brained, kind of just talking about optimizing whatever, you know, and it's, I think, frustrating when your team is off to a slow start and then the guy who's in charge of your team is like coming up with this word salad that you just kind of, again, you don't want panic, you want a steady hand at the tiller. You know, you don't want someone to, to be visibly upset because you want to project confidence and they have every reason to be confident. Confident.

[Meg Riley]

It's a good team.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, but, but also, I don't know if you want a little sort of commiserating or empathizing or something or just acknowledging in some more comprehensible way that Things are not going well, that you're not just. You're not going to get that from cray bristle. So it's.

[Meg Riley]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know, from a PR perspective,

[Meg Riley]

I think a lot about the moment in that Netflix documentary. And you're like, which one? Cuz, yeah, they're making cuts in camp. You know, they're. They're deciding the final cuts to, like, send guys down to minor league camp. And there are only so many ways to tell a guy you're not making the big league roster. Right. And so I don't want to overstate the case, but because of the fact that we have footage of it, we just know that he said the same exact thing. Like, he decided, this is how I'm gonna communicate this. And there's nothing necessarily wrong with that. It's just that we don't normally get to see that conversation play out. And so, you know, back to back to back to back to back to back to back. And it's just the same way of saying it. And again, there are only so many ways to say it. It's not necessarily a problem. But I. I think about that scene a lot because I think he is starting to read to people in a way that is very kind of robotic.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Meg Riley]

And part of this is, you know, part of this is that the Mariners aren't rolling Jerry out as much anymore. Right. They're having Justin Hollander talk to the media. And so, like, you know, Breslow is sort of filling a void. He's filling a. A business tech brain void that typically Jerry is happy to run into.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. It is funny, though, that they're both former pitchers, and so I. I do wonder if there is a little bit of. I've got to fit in and not seem like a jock or something. And so I'm gonna go completely in the other direction.

[Meg Riley]

Maybe.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know.

[Meg Riley]

I do. I do think. I do think that the, you know, the, The Yale. The Yale part of this is not to be understated.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. But Jerry. Jerry's not even an Ivy League guy. He's not an Ivy League Virginia Commonwealth University guy.

[Meg Riley]

Right. But he. So he might be. It's funny. It's like, what are you. What are you overcompensating for? You know, like, Jerry might feel out of place as a former player who doesn't have sort of a prestigious pedigree. Right. Whereas, you know, many as you have written to great effect and I think better than anyone, like, you know, a lot of these former player types who are heading front offices now, you know, dispositionally and sort of resume wise. Not all that different from the the typical CV of a of the guys running, running the show who didn't come up through the player pool. So who knows? Who knows.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I try to avoid the front office speak where I can. I almost referred to MLB right sizing Jose Altuve strike zone but you know, I always roll my eyes when a company off a bunch of people and they say oh, we're not downsizing, we're right sizing. But maybe that actually applies in Jose Altuve strike's own case. But that, that whole term. Yeah, it just carries associations that I want to avoid. Okay. The team that has hurt its fortunes the second most in the early going unfortunately is mixed Mariners. It's Mariners off to a 49 start. So they're down also so about 13 percentage points of playoff odds. And yeah, it's been bad. They have not been scoring much. Cal's off to a rough start. Julio as ever, is off to a rough start. When does he ever look good? Early in the season, but he's looked particularly bad thus far. One of these years. One of these years he's just going to get off to a good start and have an amazing season. But not, not this year seemingly. So yeah, we actually mini stat blast. We got a question the other day about the Mariners and their string of one run losses. This came from listener Michael who said April 7th. As I'm sure Meg knows, the Mariners lost their fourth straight one run game despite a complete game from George Kirby. Although I'm tempted to ask a stats question about Kirby's knack for paying homage to King Felix? What I need to know is this. What is the MLB record for most consecutive 1 run losses losses? Are the Mariners chasing yet another historical milestone in futility? A cursory Google search didn't turn anything up, so I'm coming to the experts. Well, the experts went to baseball references stat head tool and found that this was not a record. The record is seven seven consecutive one run losses and that was the Washington. Well the Washington team I guess Baseball reference calls them the Nationals in 1919. And yeah, they consecutive games by one run and they lost a lot of games in general they were 56, 84 and 22 ties that year. So that's not good. But four is not that notable. It's rare obviously, but nothing historic. It's happened 223 times going back to 1898, including six times now in total by the Mariners as recently as 2023 and 20, 20, 24. So not even really that new. For the Mariners, the good news is they have snapped this streak because the game after that, they lost nothing. Yeah. So now they've lost five in a row. But. And also they scored zero runs.

[Meg Riley]

But.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But they lost by more, which I guess is worse. But at least they snapped this streak anyway. Offensive futility. It has also been a demoralizing start for a team that was seen as maybe the best of the league.

[Meg Riley]

Hasn't been good. It's so strange because I was, you know, I was traveling and then like yesterday it was all day games, and so I haven't seen with my human eyes a lot of this futility. But it does feel early in the season to be like, sure, they're leading the Rangers now, but what's to come. It's fine, though, because generally, you know, they really do well when they're playing the Astros in Houston. So I'm sure that next run here will, Will go well. I, I don't care for it, you know, I really don't. I. I feel like I was a really good sport about Joe Adele and the robbing of the home runs because I, I don't want the young man's career to be a problem. But also. Enough already. All right, you guys. Boys. Boys.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

Gentlemen, score some runs. You know, and like, Naylor has like a negative WRC plus. That's never good. You know, that's never, never good. It's, it's. It's bad enough that you don't even have to do the, like, you don't want your, your first baseman to have a. No, it's bad no matter what position. I mean, like.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

Good Lord. But. So that's bad.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, as long as you're intact. Because I, I think the bats will come around. You know, I think they'll start scoring some runs.

[Meg Riley]

Sure.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And as long as injuries haven't hit you hard, there's a limit to how upset I would be. But the only other team that is in double digit percentage points down in playoff odds since the start of the season is the Cubs. Now, the Cubs are off to a 6 and 6 start, which doesn't sound so bad, but they're down about 11 percentage points. And.

[Meg Riley]

And they're injured.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And they're injured. Yeah. And. Right. And those are some serious injuries. So that would dismay me more. You know, I, I mean, I think I'd rather be 4 and 9 with all my guys healthy than 6 and 6 and having lost Kate Horton for the year and Boyd being injured and everything else. So, yeah, that's, that's a double whammy. That's kind of a insult to injury.

[Meg Riley]

I believe it was when they were 4 and 8. It was pointed out maybe by John Cheniere, who's a smart guy, works for the team that, like, they started that same way last year and the season ended up going just fine for, for them, not World Series fine, but like a successful season by any reasonable measure. So it's not like it can't be done. And I do think that, you know, when you're, when you're healthy and you theoretically still have reinforcements on the way and also, you know, a good farm system, albeit a top heavy one to trade from, like, you know, you have the means to, to theoretically right the ship as long as people start hitting. And despite the early success of, of some of the other teams in that division, I think correctly understood to be a more winnable division than say, the AL East. So, you know, but also, I can't say I, I, I like it. I can't say I particularly care for it. How do you, Sorry, we were talking about the Rangers even tangentially. How do you feel about these city connects? I'm sorry to derail us, but I,

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't have particularly strong opinions on most jerseys.

[Meg Riley]

As you know, you're not, you're not a, a Jerseyman, really.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think they've maybe used up some of their better ideas in, in previous years.

[Meg Riley]

I think we can be done. I do like the, I like the Baltimore ones. I think the new Baltimore ones are pretty spiffy. Part of that is just that I really didn't like, like the, the last run that they had. But I like the Baltimore ones. I think that the Atlanta ones are good, but like, I still think we can just take a little break from that particular shade of blue and it would be okay. Are there a lot of gamers in Scentsy? Because these still read to me like streamer, like outfits. Like if you took a team of

[Ben Lindbergh]

streamers and sports jerseys or something.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, yeah. If they were, if they were full aggro. What did you say?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Pulling agro.

[Meg Riley]

If they were pulling agro.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Agro. Drawing agro.

[Meg Riley]

Draw. I, I feel at a remove from that culture. I do, I feel it's okay. Feel like I'm at a distance, but yeah. So I don't know. I, they're, they're better, I think, as a whole. But, but it's a lot of them, they, and like many of them all at once. I, I, I don't like the pro brewers wants. The brewers wants her bad. I'm whispering. And then the Rangers ones. I. I guess you take that statue out, though, you know, like, what are we doing here?

[Ben Lindbergh]

That would be nice. Yes. Okay. And then I left out one other slow starter that's in double digit negative territory, and that's the Tigers you mentioned. Yeah, they're 4 and 8.

[Meg Riley]

They just got swept by the Twins.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, they did. So. And on the other end of things, so the guardians are 8 and 5. And because the Tigers have been so bad and the Guardians have been good, they're up 20.8 percentage points. They're the, the top gainer. And then the Rangers, who have been the beneficiaries of the Mariners. So start. They're 7 and 5. They're up 16.2 percentage points. And the brewers, they might not have great city connects according to you, but they are 8 and 4 and they're up 10.7. So again, it's, you know, Cubs are off to a slow start and Tigers and Mariners, and thus the Guardians and Rangers and brewers are. And the Yankees, because of the Blue Jays and Red Sox low starts and the Yankees being 8 and 3 or whatever, they're. They're also up about 10 percentage points. So those are the big gainers. And yeah, I, again, like Tigers. How much does that conserve me? Not enormously. I still think that these are all good teams, so. But they are now kind of at a deficit and now they have dug themselves a little bit of a hole that they have to climb out of.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah. And, and you know, I think that of all the, like, we don't need to keep harping on how poor the, the Central is. But like, speaking of winnable divisions, you know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

And I think that's a good club and they'll find their way. But I did watch the diamond backs, like, beat Tar in person. So, you know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Yeah, you got to see a pitcher duel as advertised. But Zach Allen was even better, I guess. Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

How many? I should have stop blasted this. It was, it was funny to watch the Diamondbacks. People are like, when was that start? Hey, we were, we had to take a pause because I had to travel and I watched it in person. Left on left. Home run made the difference in that game. How excited, exciting.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The other decliners, the Blue Jays, we have touched on the reasons for that, but they're down about 8 percentage points injured and, and then the Giants are off to a 5 and 8 start, and they're down about 7 percentage points, and no one was expecting too much of the Giants. People were expecting 500 out of them, and they've been worse than 500. But, yeah, Tony Fello has been. Been not reassuring anyone who was worried about how he would adjust to the big leagues. I don't want to make too much of this either, but. And maybe, like, people are kind of hyper focusing on everything he says, because it's such a unusual situation and he's the first guy to really make this exact transition. But it has felt like a little lack of feel when it comes to the way that he talks about stuff, because it seems like he hasn't really let go of his college coaching career. And he doesn't have to on a personal level. Like, he can continue to cherish that time or hold grudges from that time, but he keeps dredging up these issues from his college career. And this was happening in spring training when he was kind of picking bones about just like how it was reported that he was taking this Giant's job and seeming to criticize that it was reported that he would be taking the job before he actually decided to take it. But then he did take it, and he took it quite quickly after the report. I get that maybe it was kind of awkward because he hadn't told people, perhaps. And so it was the news broke before he had broken the news himself to his colleagues or players or whatever. But then, like, he was, I think, asked for comment in that report. And so he had to know that it was coming. And. And it's also just like, old news. No one cares other than you, you know, and so for him to. And he was bringing up, like, this gripe he had with, you know, runners. Calls on runners in the baseline or whatever and throws, and was hearkening back to times that he had been upset about this in his college career. And he doesn't have to pretend that he wasn't a college coach. He was an accomplished, successful college coach. But I just can't help but think that for players in his clubhouse, they're just not going to be particularly impressed by that. Or like, yeah, might not want to feel like their coaches, their manager's head is still sort of in college. It's like, hey, this is the big leagues, you know?

[Meg Riley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And if the knock on him was going to be that he hadn't played or coached at this level, then would you want to be constantly reminding everyone that that's your background? So that coupled with the slow start for the team and then talking about, like, little issues. I mean, there was the Chapman in the mound visit telling Casey Schmidt to catch the effing ball. Right? And you know, maybe that's just a veteran with a little tough love for a rookie or whatever.

[Meg Riley]

But.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And then Chapman made his own mental mistake. And then, yeah, Vitello came out and said like, there had been a few clubhouse issues, but they were minor, but also, like, why even mention them then? And like, make it sound like there's a bigger issue than there is. And then also him talking about Kanye or, I don't know, like just it's, he's kind of an oversharer maybe, and I don't know, quoting Kanye. At this point, I don't want everyone to sound like Craig Breslow. So.

[Meg Riley]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's, I guess, to the advantage of press and fans to like hear the authentic thoughts of these managers. I don't want everyone to sound like a robot and be so buttoned up that they never say anything interesting. But I don't know, it just, it doesn't seem like he's helping his case. And, and this is probably something where if they were off to a better start, this would not be a bigger issue. But he, he keeps, he's quite candid and he keeps raising eyebrows with his comments like he already doesn't have the background of any other major league manager. But also he's not sounding like any other major league manager and maybe he's just leaning into, well, I, I'm different and I'm going to sound different. And if the team were winning, maybe that would be endearing and charming and people would embrace it and we'd be talking about Tony Ball or whatever. But as it is, since people were kind of like waiting for him to screw up, you know, and just, just like, also sounding like he is making a lot of the fact that the team is struggling early on and, and in kind of a college coach way and like delivering pep talks to the team and I don't know, it just sounds a little bit bush league.

[Meg Riley]

I think, you know, part of it is a, a very dramatic shift in the, both the current and projected competitive picture for the team he's dealing with. Like Tennessee. See, this is like a powerhouse. And also, you know, there are full time professional reporters who cover college baseball. So I don't mean to suggest that the only people he's interacting with are like, you know, kids on the student paper. And also there are plenty of really good student journalists. So there are any number of ways in which I don't want to sound like I'm being insulting here, but Like, I, I do wonder how much of this is an adjustment to like, hey, hey, you. You're standing in front of, like, a professional beat, and they're gonna have questions for you every day. You know, they are often going to concern why your club isn't winning because your club isn't. So I think there are just any number of things separate and apart from the managerial differences of being a manager versus a coach, which is like the split. Right. You talk about college coaches and you talk about big league managers, and I think that there are any number of things that are just different. That isn't to say that he can't grow into that role. That isn't to say that he's like a disaster or that the hire is a disaster. But it is a little surprising to be seemingly kind of caught off guard by the way that he is, you know, going to have to interact with the media. The, the expectations will have some of the potential pitfalls. It's like, why, why are you. Why do you seem surprised by this? And I, it does kind of strike me as, as him being a little bit surprised at times where it's like, hey, Tony. Yeah, they're gonna, you're gonna have to talk to him every day, you know, and they're gonna want to know about the game you just won like that, you know, So I have been a little stymied by it because it did seem, at least in the initial, going like they were trying to position him. Well, you know, he traveled with guys from the club, like they went to. To Asia in the off season. And we saw him walking around winter meetings, and he and Buster are like, glued at the hip. And it's just a little bit odd. It's like, yeah, you're. Guess what, it's April 9th. No one cares about what the, the press coverage was when you got hired. Like, you gotta, you gotta get in today, you know, you gotta take care of business right now. I mean, they don't have a game today, as we're recording, but you know what I mean?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, and. And he was talking about how it was just like, after they got shut out a couple times, which is not how you want to start, but not that big a deal. And he said it's emotional in the clubhouse, and there are a lot of try hards. He's calling his players try hards as if they're just pressing or something. And it's just a little stream of consciousness. I guess he just kind of just says whatever's on his mind in this very not Media trained kind of way and, and just divulging to say, like, there were a few clubhouse issues. And then he's like, and we were able to keep them from you guys, which is great. A couple things we were able to keep from you guys, which was great. But then you're, you're revealing that you kept things that were happening. Why even say them then? It's so, I don't know, maybe he'll get used to it and the team will start winning a bit more and it just won't be that big a deal.

[Meg Riley]

And it's like, you know, I, I appreciate that the separation that we're implying between the majors and the college ranks is like, perhaps not quite as clean as we're suggesting you do. You're dealing with professionals. And I understand that the distinction between a professional and an amateur these days is, is less stark than it used to be. But, you know, there's still coaching that goes on at the big league level. You still have to mentor you still there. Like, there are aspects of being a college coach that I could see being incredibly valuable in a big league setting. Even as you're having to navigate the reality of these being professional and many of them on that roster, big league veterans, you know, like, you still have an opportunity to, to, to teach and to coach and to bring guys up like that. That still happens there. And it's not like he's the only one on that coaching staff. So you have other people who have experience in that context, but surely you didn't disclose every, like, unflattering or contentious moment moment at Tennessee. Right. And the, you know, they're a bunch of college kids. They were probably being knuckleheads in ways that would horrify. Yeah. Knowing the vibe of that clubhouse, I wouldn't be shocked. So. And by that clubhouse, I mean the Tennessee clubhouse. So I, I just think that, like, you know, we're seeing the rough edges and we are particularly mindful of them because the team isn't playing especially well and it could all sort of itself out, but it does feel, well, like a less professional outfit than you might expect from a big league manager. But, you know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, okay. And the Pirates are, are up about 9 percentage points too, for reasons we have touched on. Twins are up a little bit. Marlins are up a little bit, even though they had some clubhouse discord, too, because Clayton McCullough pulled Sandy Alcantra from a start. Alantra was going for his second consecutive Maddox, which would have been quite special. I think the first pitcher to do that since Maddox himself, but he was not able to finish that out. And he. He got pulled when he got in a little bit of a jam in the ninth, and then Marlin's bullpen coughed it up, and Sandy was displeased that he hadn't been consulted before being yanked and made some comments to that effect. Also, I'm confused about what they're doing. Joshean pointed this out in his newsletter, but. But they're. They're pretty strictly platooning Owen Casey and just not having him start against lefties, which just seems weird because, like, you know, why. Why not see if he can hit them? He hit them okay in the minors. And you're bringing in Austin Slater, who hasn't even hit lefties himself that well lately and isn't a big part of your future. And Casey's like a cornerstone you just made a big trade for, and he's hit perfectly fine. So. It's weird. Weird to platoon a guy like that.

[Meg Riley]

Strange. They're weird. There is kind of a weird. There maybe a little bit of weird work, you know, like, I like they're trying stuff, but I don't like the stuff they're trying.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I know. It's like.

[Meg Riley]

You know what I mean?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. The. The pitch calling from the bench is spreading that the Twins are now toying with it in the minors, and it's like not rooting against any particular players involved in this. It's not. It's not their decision, and some of them are fine with it. But since I don't really want this to catch on, I'm kind of. Of like, well, if the Marlins weren't doing so well, maybe they would decide to stop this, but they're doing fine.

[Meg Riley]

I think. I saw that several players on the Dodgers were like, that's a bad idea. And I was like, listen to them.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, yeah. And some of the Yankees have said it, right? And look, again, I. I think it might benefit teams that try it. And the Marlins are off to a good start. And hey, the Rockies are off to a good start for. For them. They. They have not changed their playoff odds one iota. No, but they're 6 and 6. They're still at 6.1% chance to make the playoffs, but it. It took them until May to win their sixth game last year. So they haven't gotten.

[Meg Riley]

This is like their best start since,

[Ben Lindbergh]

like 2022, I think. Yeah. Two or three, 500 through their first 12 games. Yeah, they haven't done that since 2022 when they started eight and four and even that year they lost 94 games and we're a last place team. But if they only lost 94 games this year, that would be a success. So good for them. You know, they've been playing like a credible baseball team lately, so that's exciting. But yeah, and you know, we'll talk maybe about some surprising players too, like Jordan Walker. Is this the real Jordan Walker? He's hit five homers. Are we finally seeing the blossom in of Jordan Walker? But the Cardinals haven't changed their playoff odds fortunes that much. But they're seven and five. That's nice. But yeah, it's the, the veteran teams. It's like the Dodgers, the Yankees. Yeah. They've said they don't want to change anything and call pitches from the bench because, well, they have a lot of experienced, good, high priced players and the teams are playing well. So sure they're going to say that. And that's why I think this started with the Marlins and the Rockies. Like these are teams that didn't have as much riding on it or just were desperate or didn't have established players who could push back on it. And I get that, you know, it's kind of a collaborative process. It's not purely an edict. But even so, I think there's a lot of pressure on young players. Even if you say this is a suggestion, it's not a demand. Well, how often are you going to go against that? Especially if you haven't developed the next of calling these pitches yourself, really. So anyway, we will continue to track this and we'll do periodic check ins on the playoff odds fortunes. I did want to ask you, since we talked about new look jerseys and we talked about the Pope hat, what do you make of this incipient trend toward brimless hats which you may have seen? Our pal Jake Mintz snapped a, snapped a pic of Edwin Diaz.

[Meg Riley]

Yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Who was wearing a brimless hat. And Diaz said that Tanner Scott, also of the Dodgers started this trend. And it is not a beanie, it's just a cap. Can you even call it a cap? It's a hat. It looks with the brim just sliced

[Meg Riley]

off sort of like a fez hat.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It does. It looks like that. Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

Did you see Jordan's, Jordan's version, which, you know, credit where it's due. Jordan did not do the seam ripping there. His lovely wife Bailey did. Shouts to Bailey. Hi, Bailey Daily. Okay, so first of all, if I'm, if I'm Edwin Diaz, I'm not following any trend that Tanner Scott strucks until such a time that I feel confident that that doesn't involve, like, you know, cooties or a curse or bad vibes. Sorry, Tanner. You were very good, and then you were not. And I don't know where you're gonna fall this year. You know, I. I feel nervous about following now. It's gone okay so far. It's gone okay so far. So two era, but so four. Four and two thirds. You're. You're confident after four and two thirds that you know what the implications. The vibe implications of following a Tanner scout friend are? I don't. I wouldn't feel confident in that ERA over four last year. Stay away from him, Edwin. Also, just turn your cap around. What are. What is the. What is. What are we solving for? Okay. Ken Griffey Jr. Is one of the coolest people to ever live, and he just turned that. Are you so offended by foul territory that you have to cut the thing just off? That's a little dig at foul territory, which I don't mean as a dig, but maybe I do. What are you guys doing over there? What's with all the backwards baseball caps? What's going on?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, it's. It's definitely a different look. And I know that there was a. It's like a kind of viral video several years ago where a guy had a Yankee cap with no brim and some. I don't know if that was the inspiration, because that was, like, 2020, probably. So there was a long lag there. But I had not seen actual big leaguers employing this look before. I. I don't know. I don't hate it. I don't. I don't have strong opinions on this because much as I'm not a Jersey opinion. Have her. I don't wear caps. I'm not a. I'm not a hat wearer, and I'd probably be more likely to wear one if it didn't have a brim. Maybe just because I feel you're just

[Meg Riley]

describing a beanie that doesn't have a function.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Like, I think that's true. It's like, why not just wear a beanie?

[Meg Riley]

What is it doing? What is it meant to do? Are you cold? If you're cold, wear something designed to actually insulate you. I'm skeptical. You are cold because. Yeah, in Los Angeles, although, you know, it's not like they've played all of their games at home and it did rain that one day, but. But still, what is the purpose? Because you're not. You're not shielding your Eyes. The. The backwards baseball cap, in addition to having a tradition of being cool, also, like, it can, you know, it, like, shades your neck, which is, you know, an area that sometimes people forget to sunscreen, and then they get. They. Then they get burned back there, and that's not good. So. Okay. But you're not shading anything. It looks weird. It looks.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It looks weird for now, and then if it becomes common, it won't look weird anymore.

[Meg Riley]

It's like, you know, the really big hats. Have you seen these? Really, like, the. The. What are those about? What. What's that about? I don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It doesn't offend me, though. I think it's just. I mean, there's no utility to it. Clearly, you're. You're a movie. Removing the part of the cap that offered some utility to players. But I think it's purely. Just a fashion statement. It's purely like, wouldn't this be silly and perhaps fun? I. I get. Players are. They can be copycats. I'm. I'm guessing that this will catch on to some extent.

[Meg Riley]

Why?

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know why.

[Meg Riley]

It's a different stupid.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I mean, I don't know. I don't mind it.

[Meg Riley]

I'm taking your standing against this. I think it's. I think it's doofy. I think you're. You're ruining those caps. You're ruining them. They're ruined.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You think you're improving them also, did

[Meg Riley]

Tanner Scott, like, bring a seam ripper from home? Who's doing the alteration? Is this something that you're imposing on a poor clubby to. To take the brim off your. And what do you. How do you explain it? Like, I. I know that. I know that Edwin Diaz did it, and we know that because of Jake, and that's fine, but he did it because Tanner Scott did it. Why did Tanner Scott do it? What is Tanner Scott's justification for this?

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know.

[Meg Riley]

I don't understand. Yeah, I don't like it. I think it looks dumb. I think the whole silly.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Just having a cap is not strictly necessary. Right? I mean, you know, people were wearing caps on night games, I guess, okay, maybe the lights could get in your eyes or something. But I think the utility of the cap is probably a bit overblown anyway.

[Meg Riley]

It has all utility. It has all utility in other contexts. It's part of the uniform, which is why you wear it at night. I understand that it has different, lesser utility at night because, sure, maybe you're worried about the lights, but you're you're probably not worried about the lights, but it's part of the uniform. You would look naked without it. And you know we already have the pants. Right. You're already basically naked out there because they haven't fixed the paint pants. They're doing. All these city connects still have transparent pants.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yep.

[Meg Riley]

They still have sheer pants that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They were always like that.

[Meg Riley]

They are not. They were not always like that. No. I'm slamming my keyboard down. I don't like it. I think I understand that there are a lot of kinds of hats, and not all the hats are about utility. Some of them are about beauty. They're about it looking pretty. They're about it looking.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This is why I don't wear hats, mostly because I, I don't care about making fashion statements, and I wouldn't make good ones if I did.

[Meg Riley]

Probably I'm going to say something, and I, I, I. I want to preface it by reminding you that we are friends and you are dear to me, but if I could speak to Edwin Diaz and Tanner Scott and anyone else who's. This man doesn't care about fashion. He just said that, and he thinks this is good. So, like that what you will. Okay. I just, like, take that piece of information in, and I am no fashionista. Okay. And I famously like very ugly hats sometimes. I'm like, that, that hat's ugly. Give it to me. But I'm here to say, this is a bridge too far even for me. A person who doesn't. Who isn't turned off by ugly hats. Some hats are ugly. And I'm like, I don't know. I kind of need that. I have some hats, and I've been been told, I'm like, I need that hat. And then someone will be like, you're not gonna wear that. And I'm like, yes, I will. And then I don't. But I have it and I look at it. I'm like, that's ugly.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. I don't know if it's good. I'm not necessarily endorsing it. I'm. I'm neutral. I'm indifferent. I think it's fine.

[Meg Riley]

I need an articulation of what about it? You, not you. Tanner Scott. What do you like Tanner? What? And the problem is the Tanner is pitching well in, like, limited action, certainly, but he's pitching. He's pitching well. And I'm sure that that is a great relief to him and a tremendous relief to the Dodgers and a really great relief to Dodgers fans. But it's like, what do you why did you do it? What did what? Why did you do it? What inspired you to do it? Why were you like, I should do that? And again, did he do it or did he make someone else do his crafts for him? In which case, why?

[Ben Lindbergh]

If this catches on, presumably they will just start selling hats like this. Right. And they will just have rimless hats that you can buy.

[Meg Riley]

I am making such a why face about that. I just don't understand. So many, like, baseball caps are great and there are so many good ones and even the ugly ones will keep the sun out of your eyes. And it's like, if you're gonna do creative stuff with hats, then move off of the cap genre entirely. There are so many different kinds of hats.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's true. And other caps. Yeah. If you're removing the bill, other caps would probably be more comfortable anyway. Right. So that's one reason. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Couple final follow ups here on things we've discussed. While we're talking about pictures and fashion statements, we got an email from Eli Sussman of Fish on first, the Marlin site responding to your comment that we don't usually see pitchers wear sunglasses. And Eli says on episode 2462, you guys very briefly discussed why pitchers never wear sunglasses. Well, the unorthodox Marlins have a prospect who does. I was in attendance for their spring breakout game last month and noticed them on right hander Aiden May. Here he is after that game explaining that they are prescription lenses. He found out at the 2024 draft combine that he had impaired vision, but was, quote, too stubborn to address it until now and has turned it into a fashion statement. He has continued to wear them during the minor league season and there's at least a little precedent for this because I was reminded that Keogawa used to sometimes wear sunglasses when he was with the Yankees. And I think in his case he did it because in Japan he had pitched much better in night games than in day games. And so when he pitched in day games, he wore sunglasses not to block out the sun necessarily, but to simulate,

[Meg Riley]

replicate the experience of a night game.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I'm not sure how well that worked in his case, but. But yeah, in, in both of these cases though, it's still, there's some reason other than just wanting to block the sun, which is the reason why a lot of players wear sunglasses. You need more than that if you're a pitcher. I guess that it's, it's not sufficient. You need, you know, either you need a prescription, so you have to wear some sort of glasses. So you might as well. Or you're trying to. Trying to make it look darker to fool yourself into thinking that it's a night game or something. There's always some sort of explanation, some extenuating circumstance. But yeah, it's not totally unprecedented. Also, we talked last time about Patrick Corbin. He's actually starting Friday for the Blue Jays. So it turns out not a long lead time there. He's just about ready already. Which means, yeah, bump up the innings estimates accordingly but John Schneider, Blue Jays manager Manager this was posted by Keegan Matheson, who covers the Blue Jays for mlb.com John Schneider on the feedback he got about Patrick Corbin from old teammate Max Scherzer. I think Max actually called him a sled dog. It was the first time I've heard that. I guess he just kind of does what he's told and pulls the sled. So Patrick Corbin a sled dog according to Maxi Scherzer, which I guess that's what we were saying more or less. He takes the ball, you know, he just stays in harness. You tell him to run and he just runs. And I guess that's what you want when everyone else on your staff is injured.

[Meg Riley]

That's so funny.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. Also slit dog. Yeah. We talked about Carter Jensen and his oversleeping and listener Paul wrote in to say when you were wondering if Carter had a person at home and later noting it's often these players first times living alone. It reminded me that when Jensen was a late season call up last year, he lived with his parents for at least part of that time since he's a Kansas City native and Paul says my siblings and I were joking that this wouldn't have happened to him last year because his mom would have woken him up. It's true. That's probably part of why this doesn't happen more often. Also, Paul says it seems like the Royals have moved on to the friendly razzing stage of this story because since the incident the team hit celebration has become the nighty night laying your head on the pillow move which I think is pretty funny. And Jensen did that himself the other day and other players have done that too. So now they're doing the, you know, put your head on your hands thing after you you get on base. So that's fun. I like you know message was sent and they did the rebuke and now everyone can laugh about it hopefully and they've incorporated it into their yeah and for Jensen to poke some fun at himself a little self deprecating he humor. I like that so you know, that's a happy ending to the story maybe. And then also an email from listener Jonty who wrote in to say the discussions on episode 24, 60 and 62 about starting pitchers staying eye washingly serious during ring ceremonies made me think of a game back on August 27, 2021, when Andre Jackson, then of the Dodgers was warming up for his second big league appearance appearance after having made his major league debut 11 days prior. Sportsnet LA the Dodgers RSN did a segment about him on their show Backstage Dodgers. The stadium will often play segments of backstage Dodgers before games. And the one about Jackson's debut was playing on the day he was set to make his second career appearance. This was happening while Jackson was in left field doing some early warmup tosses. Endearingly, Jackson stopped to watch himself on the big screen. My partner Linda was there for the game and captured the moment and he sends us some photos of this. Of course, this is not nearly the same level of pomp and crowd attention as a ring ceremony, but I appreciated Jackson showing us. He's a normal person just taking it in. And in retrospect, I always had an inexplicable little fondness for a guy who pitched 39 innings for the team. I follow. I think this little human moment explains it. And a postscript. Andre Jackson ended up playing for NPB's Yokohama Bay Stars for a couple years and in 20, 20, 25, while wearing number 42, he hit a home run. And his celebration was infectiously joyous. And I will link to that too. He was a pitcher because they still have pitcher hitting there. And yeah, he was quite happy. So he's, he's a man who enjoys his triumphs and takes a moment to drink them in. And, and that's nice because you know, if you're Andre Jackson and you're not gonna be there that long, maybe, I mean, I don't know if he was thinking that, but he should have savored that moment because you can't count on there being many more.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, I think that's right. I think that, you know, it can be so fleeting, so soak it in.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay. Congrats to White Sox right hander Duncan Davitt, my guest on episode 2419 back in December. As you might recall, he is not just a pitcher, he's also a sports writer on the the side. Had a great conversation with him and expected that at some point I would be able to wish him congratulations for making the majors this season. And I didn't have to wait long he has been summoned to try to improve that White Sox run differential. So a newly minted major leaguer. We have already met another fun little mini blast by Patreon supporter TRW in the Stat Blast channel of our Discord group. Well, not so fun if you're a Tigers fan as TRW is. But the Tigers won on April 4, bringing their record to 4 and 4. Since then they've lost five straight, meaning that their record was 4 and 5 on April 5, which is April 5 in month month day day format, 4 and 6 on April 6, 4 and 7 on April 7, 4 and 8 on April 8, and 4 and 9 on April 9. This is the longest such streak since the 1904 Philadelphia Phillies, who went from 5 and 18 on May 18 to 5 and 23 on May 23. And that streak of six ties the longest ever since streak of Record matching date in month date format. If you go by day and then month format, the record is eight set by the 1939 Yankees starting on May 14, 1949 ending on May 21 and they went from 14 and 5 to 21 and 5. TRW says the schedule makes these streaks impossible in certain years, basically the entire second half of the 20th century. They became possible again only in recent years and they've really found flourished. 2020 is the only season in which a month, month, day, day or day day month month streak happened in August in month and then day format. All other streaks happened in April or May in day and then month format. There were a couple that happened in June, otherwise all in April or May. Usually an early season phenomenon. So if the Tigers lose again on Friday, they could set a record, a record related record and one more late breaking follow up on the outro to our preceding episode, I talked about how Andy Dirks has been referring to some pulled batted ball hits as good pieces of hitting or nice pieces of hitting. Counter to the convention that that phrase be reserved for going the other way, not trying to do too much, etc. Jason Benetti informed me that Dirks is not doing that on purpose to try to reclaim that phrase. However, listener Brad wrote in to say Boog and JD in the Cubs TV booth had an extended conversation last year about the phrase good piece of hitting, how it's typically used when a player has a weak hit away from his pulse side. Then they started saying it when someone hit a ringing double or homer because that's when we actually should be complimenting a hitter. Well done Boog and JD Boog went to my high school so you know he's a great guy and we'll know that you're great if you support this podcast on Patreon, which you can do in time for our next episode which will be a subscriber only full episode by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks as have the following five listeners, Andy Kims, Adam Barber, Wiley McLeod, Ben Etter and Shane. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include the aforementioned weekly subscriber only episode, our monthly subscriber only bonus pod, our Discord group for patrons only, our exclusive live streams, personalized messages, prioritized email answers, Fangraphs memberships and much more. Check out all the [e-mail] effects I am grateful for you. All other podcasts that I have done have come and gone, always subject to the whims of other decision makers, but not this one. And that's thanks to the listeners who have stepped up to support it and also now to get some good stuff too. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphts.com you can join our Facebook group at facebook.com effectively wild. You can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music and other podcast platforms. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit @r effectivelywild and you can check the show notes in the podcast post at Fan Graphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we've cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with one more episode before the end of the week, which means we will talk to you soon.

[Meg Riley]

It's effectively wild and it's wildly effective at putting baseball and perfect perspective. Impressively smart and impeccably styled. It's the wildly effective Effectively wild spin Braid along Shango.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You might hear something

[Meg Riley]

for.