Effectively Wild Episode 2478: MLB’s New Main Characters

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2478: MLB’s New Main Characters

Date: May 14, 2026
Hosts: Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer)
Theme: Daily baseball statistical analysis, commentary, and playful discussion

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Episode Overview

This episode explores several themes: injury updates (specifically Tarik Skubal’s elbow), evolving norms around MLB celebrations (with an in-depth analysis of the Giants’ now-notorious outfield “thrust” celebration), heartwarming baseball moments, performance updates for players and teams, and a statistical check-in on prospects and new “main characters” in MLB. The show weaves data-driven insights with humor, social commentary, and personal anecdotes.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tarik Skubal’s "Fat Lima Bean" Elbow Update

Timestamps: 00:45 – 09:19

• Procedure Details: Skubal recently underwent a "nano needle" arthroscopic procedure to remove a calcified cartilage “loose body”—described with increasing precision as “the size of a fat lima bean.”
  • Meg: “Now we know it was a fat lima bean, okay?” (00:45)
  • Ben questions the terminology: “A speck is tiny… that’s not the size of a lima bean. If a lima bean was the size of a speck… he wouldn’t have had so much fricking trouble convincing them that there were little creatures down there.” (01:51)
• Medical Technology: The Nano needle scope 2.0 uses a tiny, high-res camera and allows for less fluid to be pumped into the joint, reducing damage and expected recovery time. Previous uses in NFL and NHL suggest rapid return is plausible.
  • Meg: “Insufflate the joint as if a souffle. You’re making an elbow souffle. Insufflate.” (04:27)
• Body Horror & Humor: Meg warns listeners about “body stuff,” and Ben riffs on memories of medical videos and the sea-like interior of the human body.

2. The Giants’ Outfield Thrust Celebration & MLB’s Changing Mores

Timestamps: 10:20 – 36:04

• Genesis and Crackdown:
  • Giants’ outfielders (Jung Hoo Lee, Drew Gilbert, Elliot Ramos, and Harrison Bader) debuted an on-field pelvic thrust/“dry hump” celebration, drawing attention and subsequently getting nixed by team leadership.
  • Meg: “They did the full McCringleberry from Key and Peele. It was several pumps… This particular outfield win celebration will be one and done.” (12:53)
  • Ben highlights the broader tradition: “There is a proud tradition of groin on groin contact in baseball celebrations. This goes back a ways.” (18:17)
• Cultural Commentary & Consent: Discussion delves into masculinity, homosocial behavior, and what qualifies as acceptable celebration in baseball’s evolving culture.
  • Ben: “I think everybody should chill out a little bit. Let the boys have their fun. Look at these secure men having a good time with the fellas.” (17:19)
  • Meg: “I think in a sports culture that can be homophobic… I’m not suggesting that the crotch grabbing and groin bumping is necessarily breaking down barriers… but maybe there’s a little something there.” (26:04)
• Other Teams and Precedents: Recollections of similar celebrations by the Cubs, Dodgers ("Mookakke"), Mariners, Rangers, Mets, and Red Sox, illustrating a recurring impulse among MLB teams and players.
  • On the infamous Dodgers celebration:
    • “Mookie was in the dugout, and he did this thing with other Dodgers where they were grinding, cranking something at a groinish level… It was a pepper grinder thing, but he had a smile on his face.” (21:48)
• Summary: The new “taboo” seems to be thrusting and groin-centric celebrations in place of prior furor over bat flips.

3. Heartwarming Baseball Moments: Kobe Mayo and Pet Therapy

Timestamps: 36:34 – 41:26

• Kobe Mayo’s Support System: After a tough stretch, Orioles’ Kobe Mayo credits his family, girlfriend, and especially his dog Finn for unconditional support.
  • “My dog loves me, so it doesn’t matter what happens, he’s always going to be there for me.” (36:52)
  • Meg and Ben reflect on this universal pet-owner bond, with personal anecdotes about how pets provide comfort through adversity and everyday anxieties.

4. Current Team Check-Ins: Orioles, Giants, Braves

Timestamps: 41:26 – 62:13

Orioles’ Disastrous Start

• Pitching Problems: Mid-pack preseason projections have cratered; starters are worst in AL and fourth-worst in MLB. Once-promising arms (Bradish, Rogers, Bassitt) are underwhelming.
  • Meg critiques GM Mike Elias's optimism: “You need at least one dude amidst your guys so that everyone can be bros… I don’t think that pitchers can be fellas. I think that only position players are fellas.” (52:21–53:13)
• Defensive Woes: Poor fielding metrics exacerbating pitching problems.

Giants’ Recent Form

• After earlier struggles and a “thrust” flair-up, the Giants have improved their run differential and are experiencing an uptick while still trailing in certain key measures.

Braves’ DH Surprise

• Despite the loss of Jurickson Profar (expected DH), Braves’ Dominic Smith is pacing with a 181 WRC+ at DH, surging to league-leading offensive production in the slot.
  • Meg: “Dominic Smith has been great… You can’t predict baseball!” (60:21)
• Braves’ left field, by contrast, remains a black hole offensively.

5. Prospect and Player Progress: Connor Griffin, Paul Skenes, Others

Timestamps: 62:13 – 72:29

• Connor Griffin Watch: Approaching rookie eligibility threshold, Griffin has rebounded from a rough start. Since his birthday (April 24), he’s posted a 155 WRC+ and moved into the top 15 by WAR since.
  • “Maybe a switch flipped or at least his luck has improved.” (70:01)
• Paul Skenes’s Dominance: Continues to excel; efficiency remains the only thing preventing perfect games or no-hitters.
  • “Post Skenes gave up five runs in a single inning on opening day and he has a sub-2 ERA. It is… bonkers.” (65:49)
• Other Notables: Ben Rice’s surge with the Yankees; the ongoing WAR “race” of young stars like Kevin McGonigle.

6. Quarter-Season Statistical Check-in: Main Character Emergence

Timestamps: 72:48 – 96:27

• Best WAR Overperformers:
  • Hitters: Jordan Walker (7 WAR pace vs. 0.5 projected), Shea Langeliers, Matt Olson, Ildemaro Vargas, others.
  • Pitchers: Cam Schlittler, Davis Martin, Seth Lugo, Nolan McLean, etc.
  • Underperformers: Willie Adames, Ezekiel Tovar, Cedric Mullins, Patrick Bailey, and more; pitchers include Zach Littell, Cole Ragans, Garrett Crochet.
• Discussion: Who are MLB’s new “main characters”?
  • Meg & Ben’s picks: Jordan Walker, Ben Rice, Mike Trout’s renewal, Bryce Turang, Cam Schlittler, Nolan McLean.
  • Criteria blend statistical breakout, narrative resonance, and team context:
    • Meg: “If you had to tell the story of this season so far… Jordan Walker would be, I think, up there… certainly one of the more noteworthy players of 2026 who was not expected or projected to be.” (89:31)

7. Brief Corrections, Oddities & Listener Contributions

Timestamps: 96:27 – 106:33

• Listener corrections: On the “up and never comes down” ball scenario, referencing a real-life Vandy-Mizzou fog-ball incident, ornithological grackle clarification, and memories of Scott Podsednik’s postseason home runs after a power drought.
• Neighborhood Baseball: Meg observes a neighbor’s perpetual Yankee games, prompting nostalgia for communal baseball-watching moments.
  • “I’m very charmed by this one window where I can see the baseball on the screen. And there is a communal aspect to that…” (56:36)

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Notable Quotes

• On the Skubal procedure:
  Meg: “It was about the size of a fat lima bean, okay? …We’re getting increasingly precise.” (00:45)
  Ben (quibbling): “A speck is tiny… that’s not the size of a lima bean.” (01:51)
• On Giants’ celebrations:
  Meg: “It was the full McCringleberry from Key and Peele. It was several pumps. …It’s become kind of the new bat-flipping. Like, thrusting is the new bat-flipping.” (12:53; 18:17) Ben: “I think everybody should chill out a little bit. You know, let the boys have their fun.” (17:19)
• On player & pet support:
  Kobe Mayo (via Meg): “My dog loves me, so it doesn’t matter what happens, he’s always going to be there for me.” (36:52)
• On new main characters:
  Meg: “If you had to tell the story of this season so far… Jordan Walker would be, I think, up there.” (89:31)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Skubal injury/procedure: 00:45–09:19
• Giants celebration controversy: 10:20–36:04
• Kobe Mayo & pets: 36:34–41:26
• Team breakdowns (Orioles, Giants, Braves): 41:26–62:13
• Prospect/rookie update (Griffin, Skenes, McGonigle): 62:13–72:29
• Quarter-season WAR check-in & “main character” discussion: 72:48–96:27

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Flow, Tone & Style

• Language: Conversational, witty, frequently playful, often self-referential (“horny for baseball” is a recurring motif).
• Tone: Analytical but irreverent and open-minded, with healthy skepticism of organizational spin and traditionalist mores.
• Format: Back-and-forth banter, interspersed with data deep-dives and personal stories.

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Summary Table

| Topic | Insights/Conclusions | Notable Quote/Timestamp | |------------------------------- |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------| | Skubal’s elbow surgery | Less invasive “nano needle” scope should speed recovery; amusement at medical terminology | “Elbow souffle” (04:27) | | Giants’ outfield thrust | Celebration shut down; debate over “acceptable” joy, masculinity, and cultural shifts | “Let the boys have their fun.” (17:19) | | Evolving celebrations in MLB | Historical and inter-team echoes; broader context of normalization/“main character” emergence | “Thrusting is the new bat-flipping.” (18:17) | | Pet support for players | Baseball anxiety soothed by pets’ unconditional love | “My dog loves me…” (36:52)| | Orioles’ rotation struggles | Underperformed expectations; need for a true “dude” in pitching staff | “You need at least one dude…” (52:21) | | Braves’ DH surprise | Profar’s suspension led to Dominic Smith’s offensive surge as DH | “Dominic Smith has been great…” (60:21) | | Prospect updates (Griffin, etc)| Griffin rebounding; Skenes dominating; reminders of rookie adaptation curves | “From the day he turned 20 on, he has been far more productive.” (70:01) | | Statistical “main characters” | Walker, Rice, Turang as new faces of 2026 narrative; blend of narrative and performance | “Jordan Walker would be… one of the more noteworthy players…” (89:31) |

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For Further Exploration

• Full episode spreadsheets: Find links to WAR over/underperformance and other stats in the episode description or on FanGraphs.
• Listener corrections, good-natured ornithology debates, and community musings—see the last 15 minutes for delightful listener engagement.

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This episode neatly captures Effectively Wild’s strengths: deep baseball knowledge, sharp cultural observation, and the playful spirit of two friends who can care deeply about both a nano-needle arthroscope and whether Harrison Bader is likely to pelvic-thrust outside of the public eye. For those who missed the episode, this summary provides both the statistical substance and the sociocultural flavor that make Effectively Wild a staple for baseball fans.

Transcript

[Meg Rowley]

Well, it's moments like these that make you ask, how can you not be horny about baseball? Every take hot and hotter entwining and a butting. Watch him climb the mountain. Nothing's about nothing. Every stitch wet with sweat breaking balls back door me on Effectively wild out. Can you not be horny? When it comes to podcasts, how can you not be horny?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Hello, and welcome to episode 2478 of Effectively Wild, a Fan Graphs Baseball Podcast, brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of fangraphs and I am joined by Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer. How are you?

[Meg Rowley]

I regret to say that I have another Terex Google Elbow update. I'm pretty sure I suggested that the one on the last episode would be the final update, at least until he returns. But. But no, I have more courtesy of an excellent article by Cody stevenhagen at the Athletic that answered a lot of the questions about the Skoogle procedure that came to our minds when we recorded on Monday. First of all, we got another degree of precision about the size of the loose body, the joint mouse that was removed from Terex Goble's elbow. And we have also learned what it was exactly. It was a speck of calcified cartilage. And last time we learned that it was about the size of a lima beam, according to Scott Boris. Well, Dr. Neil Elatrache, who performed the surgery, now specifies that it was about the size of a fat lima bean. Okay? So now we're getting increasingly precise. And I appreciate that because I said last time, hey, lima beans can be big. Lima beans can be small. Lima. Now we know it was a fat lima bean, okay?

[Ben Lindbergh]

But, but Ben, problem, problem. I see here a speck is tiny. A speck is small enough to fit on a flower that Horton feels the need to protect from birds and other creatures because they're who's down there, okay? And they can't see them, right? And they're going to boil that dust bite. Boil it, boil it. That's what they're going to. That. That's not the size of a lima bean. If that's true, if a lima bean was the size of a speck or a speck was the size of lima bean is really the direction that that should be going, he wouldn't have had so much fricking trouble convincing them that there were little creatures down there.

[Meg Rowley]

It's true. Now, the good doctor didn't say speck. In fairness to Dr. Neil Al Trash, that was Cody's word choice. So we could quibble with speck, perhaps.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I quibble with speck. I. I quibble with speck. And really, you know, at a certain point, these indis. Are the fault of the editor for not saying, hey, I've read Horton Hears a who, and I know that as a speck, it's very tiny. And he needed those big old elephant ears to be able to hear them.

[Meg Rowley]

Here's another detail, and I'll just. I'll warn anyone if you're squeamish about injuries, body stuff them.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But I have to be here.

[Meg Rowley]

You have to listen to it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This is an OSHA violation.

[Meg Rowley]

Everyone else skip ahead 15 seconds. But oh my God, the effect of the specific, which was not a speck. So it says at various points throughout the past few months, the loose body would become lodged elsewhere inside school's arm like a stick in a bike tire. And Scubal's elbow would become locked. What that unpleasant to read like it

[Ben Lindbergh]

would be extended and he wouldn't be able to unextended kind of locked.

[Meg Rowley]

I guess it was kind of frozen in place because the lima bean was lodged in in the wrong place. And so it was somewhat painful. And then also reduced his range of motion. So that's how he knew that he had a lima bean, a fat lima bean in there. Now, the rest of the article largely does back up Scott Boris's interpretation of events, which I noted and quoted because he had appeared on Buster Only's podcast and talked about this. Now, Scott Boris branded this the Skubal Scope. That is not actually the name for the procedure or the device, and that is not how Dr. Neil Elatrach is identifying it. The tool is called the Nano needle scope 2.0. So scope is there, but the scubal scope part, that is Boris branding.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

And what they do here, so they make an incision. They still have to make a incision, but it's a narrow incision because this nano needle is about 1.9 millimeters in diameter. So it's about half the diameter of the traditional arthroscopic thingamajig, so it doesn't do as much damage. They can just stick it in there. And when they make the incision, then they pump the joint full of fluid and they use the camera on the end to identify the lima bean, the loose body, and then use a tool to either grab or suck it out. So it's not the nano needle. The scubal scope is not the thing actually sucking the loose body out. Yeah, it's just identifying where the loose body is like a little poke and the nano needle can just more easily glide to that location. And then the surgery would require, and I'm not sure I knew this word, but the surgery would require pumping an estimated 65% less fluid than the arthroscopic procedure to insufflate the joint in as if a souffle. You're making an elbow souffle insufflate. Yes. And that means less swelling and pain and in theory, less recovery time. And not just in theory, but also this has been used not on a high level baseball player, but it has been used in other sports. They've used it on NFL players. They used it on the great hockey goalie Connor Helbuk. He had this done to repair a torn meniscus and remove assist. And basically it. It does, according to all the studies out there, reduce the recovery time because the implement does less damage and Skubal can get back to throwing more quickly. And so even if there isn't really a MLB database of nano needle scubal scope injuries and treatments, there's enough evidence out there to make Boris and Neil El trash confident that Skubal can come back more quickly. But we will see when you have

[Ben Lindbergh]

a torn meniscus and assist, is it a siniscus? That's what Scott Boris would brand it. Well, I regret to inform you that we have to reset our days since Megan Ben were fighting counter back to zero, because that was way more detail than I was hoping for.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, I'm sorry.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I have a memory from my childhood of my stepmom had to get, like, her rotator cuff repaired and they gave her, like, a video of it and then we were okay. So forced implies that a younger version of me didn't think I was going to enjoy watching it and then change her mind, which is what actually happened. I was like, oh, yeah, let's look in there. And then I was like, I don't care for this at all. There was like fluid and there was the cuff, and you could see where the fraying was. And it did look like it was floating in there, like in an aquatic way, like. Like a current was going across on a coral reef. I didn't like that. I don't think that your body should look like the bottom of the sea, even though I understand there are probably parts of it that do. But again, those are on the inside. And even though it might be my business if it's my insides, fundamentally, it still isn't. You know, it's like, not mine to see.

[Meg Rowley]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So the needle is just very, very small.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes. Very skinny needle. It's.

[Ben Lindbergh]

How tiny must the camera be? Yeah, you know, like, that's really. Yes, that's really pretty remarkable. That's like a feat of engineering.

[Meg Rowley]

Impressed, Neil Trash would not use the. The nano needle 1.0 because the resolution on the camera wasn't sufficient. But when they upgraded to the 2.0, suddenly he could see in there.

[Ben Lindbergh]

The 2.0 is about the camera, not the needle. The needle presumably remains largely unchanged.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, might be both, but definitely the needle. And so he made the incision, he found the loose lima bean, and then slid a miniature grasper into the elbow. And because of the lima bean shape of the loose body, it had a tendency to float into t spaces inside the joint, and it would be difficult to remove with normal size instruments. So they had to use the special tiny instruments from Seinfeld that they used to operate on the squirrel. And he found the loose lima bean. And then he says there's some little tricks on how to hold it still once you find it. And then you enter the joint with a grasper and then you pull it out. I like when a medical device is just named after the thing that it does. It just. It grasps. So it's a grasper. Yeah, Grasper stat.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Okay.

[Meg Rowley]

So, yeah, now we know probably more than we needed or wanted to know about this procedure. And maybe that will be the end of the body horror for this episode. We have met our body horror quota.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Medical things they. They occupy. You're gonna be like, what is this comparison she's making? Come along with me, friend. It's sort of like college relievers. How every college reliever either looks like they're like 3, 13 or 49. There's very little in between. You know, they either look not old enough to drive or like they should be giving you advice on how to, like, rebalance your ira. And I think that medical device terminology occupies sort of a similar spectrum, where it's like either the most bananas word you've ever encountered in your life with so many syllables that it's clearly not meant to be a word that gets said out loud very often, or it's grabber, you know, and there's not a. There's not a lot in the. In the medical device space sort of in between. And if you're a person who sells medical equipment and you think that that assessment is incorrect, I defer to your expertise, and I am so confident in it that you don't even have to send an email about it.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay. Well, as a palate cleanser, from the grasping, maybe we can transition to thrusting.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, yeah, okay.

[Meg Rowley]

We can go from. From body. Part of body. Positivity. Body.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Meg Rowley]

Celebration. And can talk about the thrusting that the San Francisco Giants were briefly engaging in, but now are not. Because we've gotten some questions about this. We've talked about players kissing. Your position is they should, but only if they want to.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Only if they want to.

[Meg Rowley]

And now the question is, should they thrust? And I assume your position is the same, but, yeah, it's. It seems like the Giants position is not the same, that they should not do this even if they do want to. So in recent days, the Giants outfielders have debuted some groundbreaking celebrations, and they kind of built up to it because there was an initial case where Jung Hu Lee tried to get Drew Gilbert and Elliot Ramos. It's unclear, but they were hugging. They were embracing the trio of outfielders. And then Lee put his hand on the back of the necks of Gilbert and Ramos and tried to push their heads together.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes.

[Meg Rowley]

In a way that suggested to me that maybe he was hoping they would smooch. It could have been something else. But that. That's what I thought he was going for.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, and I. I took the. The position because, you know, we didn't have the. The information we do now, that's true. About just how intimate they all desired to be. I thought that he was, like, going for, like, a mutual, like, forehead bunk, you know, like, oh, let's put our little bunk. Bunking heads together, you know, and it turns out he did want to put their heads together. Just different.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. In light of subsequent events, though, I think we can update our priors on different. What he was hoping to do there. Yeah. So. So then shortly after that, they debut a new celebration where the outfielders come together and do a dry hump. Essential the outfield. I assume it was dry, but, I mean, it was.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I. I was going to take exception to the hump part because I think thrust is a more apt description of that particular motion.

[Meg Rowley]

Whatever it was, it was vigorous. It was not just one crotch bump. No, it was. It was repeated. It was several. Several groin taps.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So, yeah, groin taps.

[Meg Rowley]

I mean, it was the full McCringleberry from Key and Peel. It was several pumps. Oh, oh, we got a flag. Is that for excessive celebration? See, and I'm not sure about that call. I don't know, Bill. That was three pumps, and the rulebook says you cannot have more than two. Oh, my gosh. But look at the kid. He's Pleading his case with the ref. Pleading his case, yeah. Clearly, three pumps. Coach Johnson definitely not happy about this call. So that happened. And. And that seemed like, okay, that was the new normal. But then quickly, someone cracked down on this and it was relayed from on high. As Andrew Backerly posted on Blue sky, it's my understanding that a message has been relayed, and here's the thrust of it. Well done, Andrew. This particular outfield win celebration will be one and done. And indeed, it did go away. They stopped thrusting and they switched to bowing. They just lined up and bowed.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

With no full frontal contact or contact of any kind, really.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

And. And according to Baggerly's piece at the Athletic, here's what he wrote about it. So there was a meeting, a pregame team meeting prior to Tuesday night's game against the Dodgers, and the team had won a couple games in a row. And there were some issues that Tony Vitello wanted to address. He wanted to talk about the newly constructed roster. He wanted to talk about role adjustments and the need for flexibility and for everyone to trust the process. Also, and I'm quoting now, at some point before the meeting adjourned, he politely asked his outfielders to cool it with the pelvic thrusting quote. They're a close knit group, let's put it that way, said Vitello when he was asked about it. And it was. It was. Harrison Bader was the third member of the trio when they did the full thrusting, as well as Drew Gilbert and Jung Hooley. Drew Gilbert appears to be a wild man, just in a entertaining way, but that man, he's wired a little bit differently than most. So Vitello evidently put the kibosh on this. But I don't know whether he was the originator of that message or just the messenger, because maybe this was a mandate that came down from ownership, from the front office, because I don't know if you saw this, but Vitello did a clandestine pelvic thrust of his own. Did you see the Vitello thrust? I will, I will. And this looks more like a dog humping motion. Vitello was standing in the dugout and he grasped the dugout railing.

[Ben Lindbergh]

My God.

[Meg Rowley]

And he started going to town. And so that suggests to me that maybe he's trying to signal that he's on the player side, that this was not him. This was the man who was clamping down on the thrusting. And that Vitello, he's still on their side. He's secretly thrusting in the dugout where no one can see except the TV cameras. So this actually, this makes me feel more positive feelings about Tony Vitello than I did the last time we talked about it. But that. That made me question who really passed down this diktat. So I don't know whether we'll know. But perhaps Mattela was just relaying the message reluctantly.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I am not a betting person, but this feels much more posiesque to me than it does.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Tony having experienced on tv, but that was enough. His tenure at Tennessee. This doesn't seem like the kind of thing he would be bothered by.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, I was going to say ownership mandate, which I guess posey kind of distinction. Ownership. Yeah, minority ownership. But the Giants ownership is famously not liberal, politically speaking. Because I was going to say, like, how will the city of San Francisco survive such a scandalous site of. Of men thrusting vigorously. Scandalous. Look,

[Ben Lindbergh]

You play in San Francisco. I think if your boys want to be close, plenty precedent for that in the. In the great city of San Francisco. Yeah, and you should. This isn't like indecent now. They went from kissing to this in the space of like a week.

[Meg Rowley]

So what's next?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Maybe there was concern about what this was an on ramp to more than anything else.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

So, you know, maybe I have some sympathy for that, I suppose. But if one seeks to understand some of the celebrations that we see on the baseball field, you don't have to work very hard to un. To. To know that they're not, you know, family friendly. And so I think that is this maybe a more direct and straightforward version of that. But I also think it's fine as long as everyone is saying yes and having a good time. I don't think that this is like indecent to have on the field in the view of children. I think everybody should chill out a little bit. You know, let the boys have their fun. Look at these. Look at these secure men having a good time with the fellas.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. So I don't know if this is owner Charles B. Johnson measure or. Or who clamped down. I guess you could say they're representatives of the organization. It's perhaps not super professional. There are kids watching. It's a family friendly entertainment. We bleep swears on this podcast mostly because people with kids sometimes complain. So maybe it's the same sort of idea that it could prompt some uncomfortable questions or something. But I think it's fun and this is almost. It's become kind of the new bat flipping. It's like no one cares about bat flipping anymore. Like, thrusting is the new bat flipping. And it's not as if opposing teams complain. I don't think this is more of a, can we get away with this on the broadcast? Like, is this okay? Do we have to censor this somehow? And there's a proud tradition of groin on groin contact in baseball celebrations. This goes back. This goes back a ways. I. David Ross certainly popularized. I don't know if he pioneered, but he was among the first to do this with the 2016 Cubs. And then there's been a bunch of Dodgers celebrations. Right. In 2024, there was the Kike Hernandez groin bump.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

With Gavin Lux. And you know these are championship organizations, right. I mean, 2016 Cubs, 2024 Dodgers.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Meg Rowley]

These are teams you want to emulate. Right. So, I mean, this is an example of the Giants just not being a championship caliber organization if they're saying, no, no groin taps to you, everyone. No heavy petting. Everyone sit with their feet on the floor with the door open, boys. So it's not the only reason the Giants are not a championship caliber team currently, but maybe it's another manifestation.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I think, look, there are so many ways to celebrate with one's. With one's bros, and we should have an expansive understanding of it. And that's not to say that anything would go. But I struggle to find this particularly bothersome. What happens. What happens if they start playing poorly? Because, look, are the Giants a fundamentally different baseball team than they were a week ago? I would submit to you that they are not, Ben. I think that they are still. What do they call it in a bad way in terms of their current position vis a vis the rest of the league. But I'd also just note that these same here. Giants have won three in a row. They've won. They've won four of their last five. They beat the Dodgers twice.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, the vibes have been bad, so you don't want to crack down.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Come on.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And they're not even again. They're not even grinding. Thrusting. No, it's fundamentally different action.

[Meg Rowley]

Speaking of grinding, do you remember in 2022, this was before the Kike Hernandez crotch bump the Dodgers debuted, and specifically Mookie Betts debuted a celebration that I think became known as the Mukake celebration, because.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, boy.

[Meg Rowley]

I'm gonna send you a gift to refresh your memory. I will link to all this to be clear if anyone wants to watch along with us, but, yeah, this is sort of a. Yeah, this was in 2022, and it was, I think, after A home run.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This is what I'm talking about.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. And Mookie was in the dugout, and he did this thing with other Dodgers where they were grinding, cranking something at a groinish level. And then after all of that, someone spra a drink in Mookie's face.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes. And it was branded the mukkake by various fans, and I think they had to stop that, or they did stop that fairly quickly. But Mookie was asked about it later on a podcast or in an interview, and he said that it was a pepper grinder thing, but he had a smile on his face. He was laughing. I'm pretty sure we know what was happening here. All right, who came up with the home run celebration dance? You know which one I'm talking. Yeah, I don't know who came up with it, but it's just grinding pepper, guys. I don't even know what you guys are talking about. I mean, it's okay. It's not even grinding. Okay. That's all it is. Okay. All right, all right. What happens when it gets on your face, though? Because it's like a reaction, y'. All. No, the water. The water to the face. Hold on, hold on. Wouldn't you be trying to get pepper out of your eyes after they do it? But instead. Yeah, that's. That's why he. No, that's why he poured the water on my face to try and get the pepper out of my eyes. Oh, gotcha.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's why the ones got

[Meg Rowley]

looks a certain way, but you guys, you know, great. Yeah, it. It. It's not that way. It's not. It's not. It's not like that. But it was a. It's a great. I feel like it was a great celebration. And you know what? I'm pretty sure everybody in the chat would love to do the celebration, because that means they hit a home run in the big leagues. Yeah, okay. Sure. All right. You know, you can't admit it, maybe, but. And Mookie, he kind of disappointed me not that long ago because he was asked if he would think about Shohei Ohtani or Freddie Freeman when he goes to bed. This was, I think, in last year's playoffs after they had big games, and Mookie said, I'm probably not going to think about another man while I'm in bed. Like, come on, Mookie. Who among us hasn't lain in bed and thought about Shohei Ohtani? So that sort of, you know, just. Hey, we can all be comfortable enough to say that. But he was the one maybe who debuted that celebration back in 2022. So he did give us that.

[Ben Lindbergh]

This wasn't the specific celebration I was thinking of, but like Mariners fans can think back to the Kyle Seeger era version of the team where they would, if they would like double, they would do their hands above their heads in a. Look, I'm gonna say something, and it's crude, okay. And I just want the parents in the room who I don't know have gone this far with us. It was what some Mariners fans colloquially refer to as the double Handy J celebration.

[Meg Rowley]

And.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And they also tried to plausible deniability their way through, which is how you do it with these things, so that you can keep doing your celebration even though you know what it's about. But I struggle to believe them, you know, and who am I to unpack the complex psychology of pro baseball players who are simultaneously engaged in celebrations that one could call pretty gay while also exhibiting a version of masculinity that seems hostile to that particular view of the world. Now, not exclusively. Right. We know Kiki Hernandez, for example, to have fairly progressive politics. So I. I don't mean to. I'm not trying to smear anyone who is an ally, but it is a. It's an interesting bit of business, you know? Yeah, it's an interesting sort of bit of business. And I think that the best way for us to come to understand it is to let them kind of do whatever they want with their breasts. As long as everybody is saying yes and having a good time. Who's. Who are we to judge, Ben? We. Yeah, we are pro baseball players kissing and pro them doing whatever else. And as long as the threshold of consent is being reached, then say okay by me.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. I think in a sports culture that can be homophobic and not uniquely homophobic. But, you know, I don't know if it's as homophobic as, say, hockey. Heated rivalry aside, but it's not good. And Right. Jason Collins just died way too young. First player to publicly come out and play in a big four sports league. And that was almost 15 years ago. And that has not happened in MLB men's league.

[Ben Lindbergh]

We should.

[Meg Rowley]

Right. Yeah. Obviously

[Ben Lindbergh]

the many ladies of the W are going. Excuse you, Ben.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes, yes, of course. But you know, that still hasn't happened in mlb. And so I'm not suggesting that the crotch grabbing and the groin bumping is necessarily breaking down barriers, is making this culture more permissive.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You don't need to load it up with meaning it perhaps.

[Meg Rowley]

Right. I don't know if it's freighted with, with that kind of cultural, societal significance, I don't know whether someone who has been closeted is going to see this Giant outfield celebration and say, ah, it is finally safe for me to me or something.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

But you know, maybe, maybe there's a little something there. It wasn't just the mariners. The, the 2019 Rangers had a crotch grab celebration. Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara did that. I mean, they really like reached and got a handful. And granted, maybe there was, maybe there was a cup involved, but even so,

[Ben Lindbergh]

I mean, doesn't make it less of a handful.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. And this stuff, it, it often kind of goes mainstream. Like when I was trying to find that 2019 RA incident, I, the first headline I saw was, was at people, people magazine, people.com and it was sharing this Rangers crotch grab. Normally they would not be covering baseball. So there is an intrigue to this. There is a curiosity to it. Oh, and you may have seen this, but even though the Giants have been thwarted, stymied in their attempt to thrust, the Mets did an homage. They, they did a tribute to the Giants outfield celebration. Did you see this? So I did not. Yeah. So it's, it's spreading now. They didn't do it. They didn't do it well. They didn't fully commit to it.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, what are, what are the Mets doing?

[Meg Rowley]

Well, I know that's the thing. It's so Mets that they, they tried to do it, but then they like halfway through they kind of lost their nerve and you know, there was some bumping certainly, but they kind of like cracked up in the middle of it and they just sort of ran in Carson Bench, I think sort of started it, but it's hard to say. They weren't all perhaps consenting to this to equal.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is this from yesterday?

[Meg Rowley]

This was from yesterday, yes. Tuesday. So. Yeah, but clearly they had seen the Giant celebration then they wanted to do their own version, albeit inexpertly. So, you know, and, and the Red Sox, I think earlier this season they had a pelvic thrust celebration on the base pass and then they abandoned it. I think maybe shortly after Alex Cora was fired. I think given the way they started the season and all the, the tumult and everything there, maybe they just felt like it was not, it didn't fit the mood of the team or something. And I think sometimes the broadcast would cut away from it. So maybe they got a talking to also, or they just, they've substituted other celebrations. But clearly there's an impulse here you know, so this is, this is not as significant as, say, the Dodgers just announcing that at their pride night they are honoring and installing a tribute to Glenn Burke and Billy Bean. Billy Bean without an e on the end. And they're going to have a permanent display to those two. And that's great. And, and these temporary displays, well, I don't know whether they are motivated by. By the same desires, but, you know, I, I welcome it. I'm glad that these barriers are being broken down one crotch bump at a time.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And to be clear, like, I think that part of. Why it's just like, again, you know, maybe, maybe some of these will be expressive of, I would imagine, away from the field, but romantic motivations or interests on the part of the folks doing it. But mostly I'm just interested in there being a broader and more expansive range of ways that these guys can relate to one another interpersonally. And the one that we get the most prominently is very. It's a very particular understanding of masculinity. It's. It's very heteronormative. And so I just, you know, I want to open up the, the bounds of what, again, as long as everybody's wants to, you know, and I, and, and to be clear, I'm not, I'm not some libertine. Like, I understand that there is a, an outer bound past, which it is probably not advisable in what is a broadly inclusive space that is going to involve families to like, you know, you got to be reasonable here. I get it.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Maybe the mukake, the Brokake celebration, that

[Ben Lindbergh]

was maybe a little on the nose, literally. But also it's a space where I think we are engaged in. Just to make this sound a little more like, I'm a sociology student, you are engaged in a negotiation around these things because, sure, there are kids there, but, like, it's not just kids there. There are adults there too. And there are aspects of that entertainment that I think can be like a little bit. I was going to say sexier, but that's not quite right. Like raunchier. Right. They can have sort of a bald sense of humor about them. So I just think, I wish I had had the courage of my convictions to say, yeah, he's making him try to kiss. Because I watched it and I was like, I think he. He's looking at a head bonk. And he thought, not a salacious enough bon. We must bonk.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Other bits, we must be engaged in other. And, And I don't know anything about Jung Huli as a person is the other thing. I think that Harrison Bader, his involvement in this is unsurprising to me just based on like the way that he has presented himself publicly over the years.

[Meg Rowley]

Andrew Gilbert, for that matter. Yeah, back back early in his post saying that this might be the last thrust put in parentheses. I don't think Jung, who will be sad about that, that this will be one and done. So I don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Jung Hooli might not have been the instigator of it.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, you can see in the clip that he was not embracing it quite as wholeheartedly. I mean he was going along with it, but there's an element of peer pressure. And again, we do want this to be consensual. And and so he did mid thrusts as the other guys were were hugging and had their arms around him and each other. He put his arms up in the air as if to say like, whoa, whoa, I don't know about this. So okay, maybe he was a bit more trepidatious, I guess.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Re watching it it that that is right.

[Meg Rowley]

We'll continue to track these evolving norms and mores and probe what they might mean for the sociocultural just how MLB functions, just bros being bros and sometimes bumping groins like this. And I do think that this is kind of the new frontier of celebrations where we've all not completely put it past us, but the culture wars about can you just be exuberant by yourself? I think that has largely been resolved in favor of yes, you can. Of course, there are still some, some flare ups sometimes when someone takes exception to a celebration and thinks that it was targeted at them or it was putting them down or showing them up or something. But this, this is, this is a mutual expression of joy. And so I don't think I've seen other players object to this so much because it doesn't feel as targeted toward them. This just feels like something that players are, are doing that teammates are engaging in. And so this really, it feels like the resistance to this is maybe the audience or ownership or management or whatever or just some kind of latent can we do this? Is this okay? What does this say about me? So anyway, there's nothing wrong with that. Not that there's anything wrong with the Giant outfield celebration, but perhaps we will see it live on in other celebrations or echoes of it at least. Gosh, I'm not even going to have to instruct Shane to use the horny theme for this episode. I don't think he will probably do that on his own to make this more PG from here. Here's another quote that I identified with strongly and I thought was quite heartwarming. So Kobe Mayo has gotten off to a rough start this season, but he did hit a big three run homer the other night against the Yankees and supplied all the Orioles runs in a game that one by one run. And so Mayo was pretty relieved about that big hit. And he said afterward that he had leaned on his support system to get him through the tough times. His family, his girlfriend, his golden retriever, Finn. And he said, the dog doesn't know I made an error. He's referring to a two out throwing error that he made that resulted in a walk off win for the Marlins recently. The dog doesn't know I made an error. He doesn't know I struck out four straight at bats. This game does a lot to the mental side and we can have a lot on our minds. Going to sleep at night, putting our heads on the pillow, whether we're thinking about Shohei Ohtani or not. As much as guys want to flush it, sometimes it's tough to when you leave the field. So I think sometimes you need the people in your corner. My dog loves me, so it doesn't matter what happens, he's always going to be there for me. And I thought that was so sweet and touching, especially the end of it where he says it doesn't matter because the dog's gonna be there at the beginning when he's like, the dog doesn't know I made an error. He doesn't know I struck out four straight up bats. That leaves open the possibility that if the dog did know, he might turn on Kobe Mayo. You know, it's just he's kept him in the dark. He's. He's pulled the wool over Finn's eyes. He comes home and tells Finn he had a great game. And so Finn wags and says, I still love you. No, it's just that even if Finn knew about the air and saw the strikeouts, he still wouldn't care because it's an unconditional love for Kobe Mayo. And I think a lot of pet owners feel that. Or not even pet owners. You know, he talked about his family and his girlfriend. They were kind of afterthoughts. So it was really Finn mostly, but also the other loved ones in his life. And I've had this experience too. I come home after a tough day and I mean, usually I'm home to begin with because I worked.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I was gonna say, where are you coming?

[Meg Rowley]

That implies that I left to begin with, but I don't know, I went from one room to another after a tough day or there you go. It's something I. I associate even more strongly with when I was a kid. And if I knew I had a tough day ahead or there was something I was dreading or something I was anxious about, I had a big test or something, or I had to give a presentation, and I was kind of just. I was stewing in some anxiety about that. I would, like, lie in my bed the night before the morning of, and you know, just like, cuddle with my dog and think like, well, no matter how this test or presentation goes, I'll be back here, you know, later tonight. I'll. Like my dog at the time, Holly. Like, Holly will still be here. She'll still be getting under the covers or grumpkin today, and she won't care how that went. And so how bad could it be if at the end of it, I'm still back snuggled in bed with my dachshund? So that still brings me comfort, I think, even. Even now, but especially when I was younger and had tough times or really was apprehensive about something, that would be a thought that would kind of carry me through the day. Like, hey, I just gotta. Just gotta get back to my dog, who will greet me warmly as always and will make me forget about whatever happened. So here's to you, Finn and Kobe. I. I feel that too.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Oh, that's so nice.

[Meg Rowley]

I don't know if. If cats provide exactly the same comfort in all circumstances, but I don't want to get into a dog versus cat discussion. It's just, you know, cats, sometimes they. They might hold it against you if, if you do something wrong, I take it. But, you know, it depends on the cat.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, it does depend on the cat because much like dogs, there's. There's, you know, variation and.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And individuality to each special little feline spirit. The place where they can be kind of pissy is when you come home from a trip because they'll be like, excuse my swear. Where the have you been? You know, where were you? What were you up to? You were here, you know, And I imagine that your experience of this is similar to mine where when you are lucky enough to work from home, they're totally spoiled. Their barometer for what's normal for a pet is completely warped and out of, I imagine, alignment with a lot of pets where, you know, the. The person who is their owner has to go to like, an office job or what have you. So the cats are at their weirdest immediately upon arriving home. And part of that is one of the first things you have to do after a trip with a cat is be like, okay, what kind of weird stuff did you get up to while we were gone? Yeah, you know, what did you do that the cat sitter didn't notice, but I sure will. It often involves hairballs in weird spots is what it is, what it means, especially this time of year because it's so stinking hot, shedding like crazy. Ben just in a constant losing battle with the hair and the dust and the dander and the what have you. So. But, you know, like, as an example, our listeners might recall that last. Last Monday I was sick and I had been sick the week prior. I decided to, at the beginning of my illness in. You know how you're hopeful at the start of getting sick that, oh, this is just like a one day kind of thing. And then you come to realize, like, no, you're sick. You're going to be sick for a couple days.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And so I was like, oh, I'll take a nap on the couch with baseball on. Baseball nap has healing powers. And. And did the cat know I was sick or was the cat simply excited for the odd midday nap on the couch? Midday hanging out on the couch doesn't happen very often because I work in the office. And she came over and she snuggled in there and was like, here, I'll nap with mommy. And that was nice. It was nice, you know, and it didn't prevent me from being sick for a couple of days. But that, that was good. When the, the vomitus part of being ill hit, then I'm like, please be away from me because, yeah, I can't have you snuggling me. I might have to get up abruptly.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, the dogs, or at least mine won't hold it against me if I'm gone. Even though that's a rarity for me. It's, it's very much. It's Odysseus and Argus. It's, you know, you could be gone for five minutes or 20 years and they're just happy to see you.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Thank goodness you're back finally. It was way too long. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Elsewhere on the Orioles roster, I hope, I hope that a lot of Orioles have pets or dogs who love them because a lot of them have been struggling. And we talked the other day about the Giants. Last time we talked about the Giants, I think they had the second worst run differential in the majors. Well, now the Worst run differential the the Giants have thrust all the way up to fourth worst so things are are looking up for them. The Orioles are tied with the Astros for the worst run differential in the majors. If we look at their base runs run differential, which introduces another layer of abstraction, it's deserved run differential. What their run differential should be then they have the worst in the majors and so their base runs record is the worst base runs thinks that based on their underlying performance, they are the worst team in baseball. They've had the worst start to the season and what else is new? I guess the primary culprit not that the position players have been great, there's something like 21st in team position player war. But the starting pitching, the starting pitching, they have the worst starter WAR in the American League. They have the fourth worst starting pitcher WAR in baseball. It has been quite bad and worse than even I thought it would be. And we've been pretty low on Orioles starting rotations in recent years, but as of mid March or so, they were projecting to be middle of the pack. Fangraph step charts had them like 16th on March 9th when it was archived by the Wayback machine and now 27th. And I was looking back, I was casting my mind back to some Michael Lias optimistic quotes about the rotation. And it wasn't quite as bad as last year when he was just like, well, we couldn't possibly have dreamed that Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez could be heard at the same time. I mean, you know, like, who could ever have thought, no, it's a world not dreamt of in our philosophy. But this time in February, he talked about how it was a very strong group, a talented group of guys. We have a very good rotation. I think it's a really strong group. I think our rotation is very strong and very talented. So he restated multiple times how strong, how talented the rotation was. And then in another quote from later February, he said that the Orioles rotation has a ton of potential and that the Orioles are very hopeful. It's a real strength for our team. And then right before opening day in late March, he said, it's a rotation that has the potential to carry us to an AL east title and hopefully very deep into the playoffs. And I guess it did have the potential to do those things. So it's, you can't really fact check it and say it wasn't true. But, but it hasn't turned out that way thus far. And it's, it's been sort of surprising how bad it's been, at least to Me, we definitely said a lot of people said one more guy would have been good. You know, whether that guy was FR. Valdez. Well, given recent events, I don't know how you'd feel about having Frber, but he's a pretty good pitcher still. And the guys that they did get. So they traded for Shane Bazaar, he's been pretty bod so far. And then Kyle Bradish, basically they were banking on Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rodgers continuing to pitch like aces because those two guys had, they'd been a great one two punch at the top of the rotation and they had come back from injury. And so I think everyone was sort of extrapolating, okay, what if they just keep doing that all season? But they haven't. And radish has a near 5 ERA with a 4.2 fin. Trevor Rogers, after a recent ref outing, he has a near 6 ERA with a 4.5 ish FIP. And Chris Bassett, whom they brought on, he has almost a 6 era with a 5 plus FIP. I mean it's really been bad. Like everyone who's their most effective starter, well era wise has been Brandon Young, but he hasn't really been that good either if you look under the hood. So I know they've had some injury issues and stuff but like not a, a single guy who has made more than one start for them has a FIP under 4.2 or 4.19. Like there's just no one who's pitching like a top of the rotation pitcher. It's, it's a bunch of back of the rotation guys. It's as if Trevor Rogers and his ridiculously low ERA from last year just all of that kind of corrected at once. And it was sub 2 last year somehow. And so he pitched out pitched his FIP and now he's underperforming his fit. But his FIP also hasn't been very good. Yeah, so I guess you could still say in second guess. I mean it was a first guess for a lot of people, but you could still second guess even if you first guess and say they should have done more but they've kind of struggled across the board. It's also the position players which was the case last year too. We fixated on the starting rotation but maybe the bigger issue was that all of the bats regressed or a whole lot of them. So it's more evidence thus far. Even though they spent and they were pretty aggressive over the off season and we did give them some kudos for that. They're off to really rough Start. Maybe not quite as demoralizing as last year's start, but not much better, especially since they actually tried to get good this year. And so the longer this goes on, the more you start to worry and wonder, is this it? Have they peaked already? Is this gonna be what they got out of that rebuild?

[Ben Lindbergh]

I think that, well, there are a couple things. And this is relying on me remembering what I said at the time, which is that a thing I'm famous for. Ben sure is not. I appreciated that they spent money I didn't know and didn't think that they had engaged in, like, really optimal resource allocation.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's nice to get a Pete Alonzo if you have confidence that the bat is going to be stout. Okay, great. And I can appreciate why you might feel a reticence to, you know, sink a bunch of money into free agent starters because pitchers famously get hurt. So there was some, like, logic to, hey, we, we want to spend on a big bat. We think it's, you know, that Pete's gonna be like, even if he's not the 141wrc+ version of himself that he was in 2025, like that he has a pretty solid floor in the 120s. And that hasn't proven to really be true yet. You know, he's had, he's had stretches where he has been more stout at the plate than he is right now. But. But he said two hits today and that has brought his WRC plus up to 108 at the season level. So it just felt like a lot of money to give a guy who is really first base only and, you know, might not have a super graceful decline phase and you're like, happy for Pete Alonso that he finally got his big check. But also if you're the Orioles, is that where you really want to spend $155 million? I'd submit that maybe it's not. So there was that piece of it. And when you're an organization that has had to work really hard to convince ownership to spend, I do think that, like, you, you just have to be aware of the fact that like, you don't have endless checks. Right. Like, if you look at what the Dodgers did this off season, that hasn't really paid dividends for them, you know, like, and we can talk about the slumping Dodgers, I guess, at some point, but it's not like either of their really big marquee sign worked out super great so far. Now Kyle Tucker's bat seems to be on the rebound. He's up to a 118 WRC plus. But he hasn't been even the, I think, more realistic sort of 135 to 140 guy that people kind of expected him to be. I think everyone was aware that he probably wasn't like a true talent one 80 WRC plus hitter that like he was in 2024 in limited work, but like, thought he was going to be better. You don't have to play Tay, Oscar and write whatever. And obviously Edwin Diaz has, has barely pitched for them, is hurt and you know, was bad when he was on the mound. So they haven't been able to do much, but they have a lot more margin for error because the appetite for spending there is greater and they have just such a high floor to begin with from a talent perspective. Pressure's on for Baltimore, right? You, you spent time being intentionally bad. You brought together this great position player court. You were pretty reticent to trade out of that group. Group and so say that it didn't happen. But like, you kind of the like big consolidation trade that we all thought might be coming for Baltimore never really came. You know, you did a little bit to get some pitching, but like, it hasn't. You haven't moved any of the big guys whatever. So I just think that the way that they've decided to allocate resources across their roster, both in terms of actual, like, money and then, you know, what they might have done with that farm system when it was at its height, they haven't really done much there. And they seem to have a very strange notion of like, both the expected health of pitching generally, their guys in particular, and the likelihood of any of some regression from guys who were suddenly good last year or were good again last year, but have been inconsistent over the course of their careers. So. So do I think that this team, like, should be as bad as it is right now? No. And there have been some parts of it that have been better. Like, you know, it's really cool to see Adley Rushman good again. Like, Adley's just Adley back, at least seem back. You know, he's been really productive at the plate. The defense looks like it is in a, in a much better spot than it, you know, it had been. So like, okay, great. If you had told me that Adley Rushman would have a 144 WRC plus on May 13, I would think to 147. 147 per the live stats, I would be like, oh, surely the Orioles are better than 19 and 24 but they're not. And I just think that the way that they've decided to build their roster has left them very little margin for error. And I don't. I don't understand why Mike lives, who is a smart guy, keeps seeming so, like, bumfuzzled by it. He's like, I can't believe the guys get hurt. It's like, well, yeah, they're pitchers. Mike, you're not new. Like, what do you mean?

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And that exact rhetoric wasn't repeated this off season. Obviously, some of the moves that they've made have indicated that they wanted to reinforce that group. But, you know, you're reinforcing it with, like, guys who haven't quite lived up to their prospect pedigree and like, Chris Bassett and. Yeah, you need innings eaters. But like I think we said at the time, they didn't have. They don't have like a dude. You know, they didn't have a dude we felt was sure to be a dude. They have had. They have guys. They don't have a dude. Yeah, you need. You need at least one dude amidst your guys so that everyone can be bros. Yeah. This is like the hierarchy of guys. And you're sitting there thinking, meg, you dropped the word fella A bunch at the beginning. Position players are fellas. I don't think that. I don't think that pitchers can be fellas. I think that. I think that only position players are fellas. You know, the fellas, the boys.

[Meg Rowley]

Okay. Yeah. Interesting taxonomy. Well, at least they have Rico Garcia, so you can't make a whole pitching staff out of Rico, I guess. But he's been quite a pickup for them.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I love that name.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, me too. And you know, we're out of the. The jinx zone, I think now because we talked about Rico Garcia and his historic BABIP streak. His zero BABIP streak, that was last week. And he has pitched twice since then and has not allowed a hit on either time. So I think we're off the hook now.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

It only counts if.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If anything bad happens. You can't blame us Oreos fans.

[Meg Rowley]

No, we already jinxed it. And. And nothing happened. But I will point out now, when we talked about him last time, he had already set the record for the most 0babip innings to start a season.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, but.

[Meg Rowley]

But he was still climbing the all time leaderboard of just longest zero babbip streaks spanning a season across seasons. So now he was at 19 and a third innings, counting the end of last year. And he's pitched since Two more hitless innings. And so he is now up to 21 and a third innings which trails only Johnny Vandermeer, who he has just won out to go to catch up with. And of course famously back to back no hitters. And EK the all time record holder, Dennis Eckersley, who he is now three innings behind. So that's the number to beat. I'm now, I'm hanging on every Rico Garcia.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Outing and appearance now just to see if he can somehow sustain this. Because it's, it's wild. I mean, it's not wild. He has not been wild. But I don't know how he's doing this. It's. It's because he entered this season with a career 308 BABIP. If anything, that's a little worse than league average. There was no indication that he had any sort of hit suppression capacity. And yet this is the guy who just decides, nope, no more hits for anyone. So yeah, one more out he will pull even with Vandermeer and three more innings he would catch up to EK and you can't blame me if he doesn't because.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right. We didn't.

[Meg Rowley]

Statute of limitations already passed. Not my fault. Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Another thing that, that kind of gave me warm fuzzy feelings in the mold of seeing myself in Kobe Mayo and his dog. I also in my apartment, from one window, the one kitchen window, I can see into a neighbor's apartment and I can see their tv because the way this building, it's an old building and there are two lines, there are two elevators and so there's like the front of the building and the back of the building and there are only two apartments in the front and they're more in the back. And this is a back apartment. So I don't know who lives there and I don't know which apartment it is, but it's on the same floor. It's weird how in apartment living in the heart of New York City, like you can live in such close proximity to someone and not. Not know who they are or be able to. So I never see the person in this apartment, but I can see part of their living room and their tv I can always see. And they always have baseball on the tv. Yeah. At least in the evenings they always have the Yankee game on.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Nice.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, it is nice. And I just, I'm, I'm in the kitchen just refilling my tea or whatever it is, and I look out and I see the TV and there's baseball on it and it doesn't feel that invasive because I can't actually see the person. And so I don't, I don't know who lives there. I mean, I'm sure whoever it is, I've probably, if not shared an elevator with them because they live on a different elevator. I probably run into them in the lobby or something and maybe I've said hello, but I don't know. I can't put the face to the apartment because I've never seen the person who's in the apartment, only the tv, the unseen person off screen who's watching the screen. But I really, I like encountering baseball like that just in, in the world in this incidental way. Just it sort of reinforces. Oh yeah, other people care about this because, because I know they do and, and people listen to this podcast and they, they write in so that we know we're not just talking into the void. And people care about these things. But there's something to just seeing it in the world. And, and I'm not like going to sports bars and stuff at this stage of my life, so I'm not really seeing other people watch baseball unless I'm actually at a baseball game. And so I'm very charmed by this one window where I can see the baseball on the screen. And there is a communal aspect to that where I think, oh right, and who many, you know, there however million stories in the naked city or, you know, they're just people watching baseball on their screens all over the place and they're watching different games and we're all kind of tied together by that. It's very nice. And it reminds me of when I read about the, the stats about how everyone in Japan is watching the wbc, right? And you know, you can tell because like people flush the toilet at the same time in Tokyo because like if it's an inning break and everyone goes to the bathroom and it's this super high percentage of people, the population in the country watching games. And I'm always envious of that because you don't quite have that same communal feeling here because there's the popularity of it. It's not the same. And so I, I, I wish that we had that. And I get a little feeling like that every time I see my neighbor's TV screen and the baseball in their living room. So just thought I'd share.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Are they a one team kind of a living room as far as you can tell, or do they branch out?

[Meg Rowley]

I think it's always been the Yankees, but I'm not positive about that. But yeah. Anyway, they're a baseball fan. I could strike up a conversation with them sometime if I knew who they were, but I don't. It's a mystery. It could be anyone. That's the other nice thing.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Meg Rowley]

I look at the other faces of these strangers who are my neighbors, and I think, are you the baseball watcher? Do we have something in common?

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Meg Rowley]

I don't know. Maybe it's a little mystery.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Do we have a kinship we're not yet aware of?

[Meg Rowley]

Right, right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Another more surprising thing, I think, than Oriole starters struggling. I just happened to notice this, that Braves dhs are leading the National League in WAR and WRC plus. And how about that? Yeah. Which I would not have expected because Jerks. And Profar was expected to be the primary DH for the Braves. I don't think he was super pleased about that, but he was in line to be the starting DH for that team before he got suspended again. And when he got suspended, it seemed like they didn't really have anyone.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Right.

[Meg Rowley]

And so I thought they would struggle. Not that Profar was the best bat or anything, but he seemed to be better than what they had on hand.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is this because they're just like DHing Drake Baldwin a lot?

[Meg Rowley]

Well, it's. It's 16 games of Drake Baldwin, so it is a little bit of Drake Baldwin, but it's mostly Dominic Smith.

[Ben Lindbergh]

How about that?

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. Dominic Smith has a 181 WRC plus. That's so in 77 plate appearances, which is more than Drake Baldwin has out of that. Yeah. And you know, there was like one game of Acuna and a few games of Michael Harris ii. Although those were games when he happened not to hit, he said in all the other games. But yeah, Dominic Smith has been great. And the Braves are tied with the Astros and. And Yordon for the highest WRC plus by DH's 157. So that's very much a can't predict baseball season. I mean, it's like Jordan, it's the Astros number one, it's the Phillies number three. Okay, that makes sense. They spent a lot of money on a pretty good dh. And then it's the Braves sandwiched between those two teams with. Yeah. Now their left fielders have been terrible. So Profar played some left field for them last year. I don't. Wasn't really in line to this year, but they did sign Mike Krztzki to play left for them primarily. And that has not really worked out so well. So I guess, you know, it's not all coming up roses, although mostly it is for the race this year because not much has gone wrong for them really on the whole. But their left fielders, they raked close to the worst in baseball. It looks like 28th in WRC plus and 23rd in war. So they do have a weak spot. It's hard to identify, but it's there. Also the Orioles pitching issues. Their pitching has been bad, but also their defense has been bad. So that's part of the ERA FIP gaps is that according to Baseball Savant, the fielding run value stat cast base, they are 27th at negative. So that hasn't helped make the pitcher surface stats look good. But yeah, it's, it's been bad across the board.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It hasn't been good.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. And my other timely observation is that by the time people hear this, probably Connor Griffin will no longer be rookie eligible or prospect eligible. Obviously he's a rookie this year, but prospect eligible because he will have had his 130th at bat. He is one away as we speak going into Wednesday's games. And I guess that means there will be a new number one prospect technically in baseball. So congrats to, I don't know, Jesus Ma probably who will maybe take over the top spot. Big shoes to fill. But Griffin, he's kind of turned his season around quietly. And you know, we've all been marveling at Pirates pitching. We marveled at Pilots pitching last time and then Paul Skeens came out and shoved again. That guy, if they ever let him go nine, he is going to pitch a perfect game or a no hitter one of these days. It's just, it's a matter of time. I think.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Furious. I am furious. I was like surely just let him, just let him try. Just have him go batter to batter. Have him have Gregory Soto ready. Fine.

[Meg Rowley]

He needs to do, he needs to do what Bailey Ober did on Tuesday. Which is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Well, this is the thing. This is the thing. This is the thing. Bailey Ober. Bailey Ober. And no offense to Bailey Obert, Bailey Ober is a, is a fine pitcher. He, he was so happy to and I was just sitting there watching Bailey Ober be thrilled, watching the assembled twins be thrilled, watching the assembled non twins be thrilled. And I'm like, look at what you could have Pittsburgh look at this happy man.

[Meg Rowley]

Well, it's his fault for not being efficient enough because Bailey Ober, he didn't just throw a Maddox a complete game shutout and fewer than 100 pitches. He threw a complete game shutout in fewer than 90 pitches. He did it in 89 pitches, which was I think the second. There was the stat. Jason Lukart, who coined the Maddox stat, reported that he is the third pitcher after Adam Wainwright and Sonny Gray to have a sub 90 pitch Maddox this decade. There have been only 55 of them since 1988. When we can go back to. And of course, the leader in sub 90 pitch Maddoxes is Maddox. He did it seven times. But yeah, that's what Skeens needs to do. I guess he needs to be that efficient because otherwise he's. He's gonna get the hook. Unfortunately.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I just like, look, I don't want to sound like an old person, you know, or like an old school person. I don't. I don't want to be fussy. I appreciate keeping public Paul Skeens healthy. I understand. I, I was here on this very podcast talking about how the Pirates have obligations not only to themselves, but also to baseball because Paul Skins is so good and the responsibility got heightened when school went down. And is that fair? No, but it's reality. And I shouldn't have said that because they. Don Kelly, I'm gonna. I tell you what, Don, you stop it. You know, you stop. You let him try. And it's the sort of thing where he, you know, they didn't let him try. And the, The Pirates still won that game. They still beat the Rockies, but it got a little hairy there in the ninth and Gregory Soto gave up a run and I was just like, you deserve to lose. You've done this back to back starts. Also, can we just take a moment to appreciate. Post Skin gave up five runs in a single inning on opening day and he has a sub 2 era. It is. Is. Yeah, Bunkers, what this guy is doing right now.

[Meg Rowley]

He had a 1.96 ERA. It is rookie year, a 1.97 ERA last year and a 1.98 ERA this year, despite that disaster start on opening day, which wasn't even entirely his fault. But so I. At this rate, I guess in, I don't know, 40 years or so, he'll. He'll have a. Still have a sub 2.5 ERA because he's. He's adding a tenth of or a hundredth of a run every year.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But is it like it. It's like, you know how you can technically get like infinitesimally close to the

[Meg Rowley]

wall and never touch it asymptotically approaching? Yeah, I don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But I want us to have an opportunity to interview him again and I want you to refer to his era that way. I hope it's another zoom call so we can see what his face does when you say that. Because I think he's a smart guy.

[Meg Rowley]

You know, he went, he has a, a 183Babip, which is, you know, not nearly Rico Garcia esque, but quite low. Yeah, yeah, it's, it's, he's, he's just cruising, he's constantly cruising through every start. He makes it look easy, he makes it look almost low effort. And, and we talked to him about this. I think he, he does not throw it super max effort all the time. He's still like sitting 97 something, but we know he can throw harder than this. He was sitting like 99 as a rookie and he consciously tried to take a little off. I mean it's ridiculous that taking a little off can still be sitting 97 something but, but he is, he's so good and he is pretty efficient. And I think it's, it's really his command that. Because according to stuff plus, like he's at or close to the top of the league in location plus whether this season or since his debut. Not that his stuff isn't also great. His stuff plus ranks high, but his location plus is even more elite. So I think it's, I mean he just does it all. He throws whatever pitch he wants to and he puts it exactly where he wants to. And so he doesn't have the most eye popping strikeout stats. They're good to be clear, but there are guys who have higher strike. He's not the Miz in that respect. He's not throwing quite as hard, he's not missing quite as many bats, but he's just efficient and he doesn't walk anyone and he has such elite command to pair with with elite, pretty darn elite stuff that it's just the complete package. I mean he's great, but everyone knows he's great. This was supposed to be a Connor Griffin point, which is namely that Connor Griffin, he has kind of turned his season around. Now he's, you know, probably not going to make good on your bold prediction about him having Mike Trout's rookie war. However, he has already sort of salvaged what was a rough start to the season, understandably because he was 19 when he came up. But if you do sort of split his season, if you just look at. So he hit his first homer of the season on April 24, his birthday. That's right. Yeah. So from the day he turns 20,

[Ben Lindbergh]

I said it like that his birthday.

[Meg Rowley]

From the day he turned 20 on, he has been far more productive. He had. He has a 155 WRC plus since then, eight war. That actually ranks 14th among all qualified position players. So that's pretty darn solid. Now he has a 395 BABIP over that span. So it's, you know, the yin and the yang is Skeens is low and Griffin is high or something. But he's had an above average walk rate over that period. He has struck out more than the league average, but not an unsightly amount about 25% of the time. And he's been one of the best players in baseball despite just being 20. And he's also cut down on his chase rate. It's still high. He's chasing 33.6% of pitches outside the strike zone. But prior to his birthday it was 40.8%. And yeah, it was one of the worst in baseball. And now it's still worse than average but it is not nearly as extreme as it was. So you can kind of see him already putting it together a little bit and he still has strides to make. But he had a 38 WRC plus.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Through April 23rd and then he turned 20 and maybe a switch flipped or at least his luck has improved. But probably a bit of both. And I'm sure he'll only get better from here. And by the end of the season we may very well be saying that he lived up to expectations even though the expectations were extremely inflated because he was such a high hyped prospect.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Man, wouldn't it be cool if I, he did make my bold prediction? Right. That would be a hell of a run through the end of the season. I think my bold predictions were too bold. I think I maybe that's.

[Meg Rowley]

I applaud boldness in the bold predictions.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's what we're.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You mean I'm gonna lose. But yeah, he, he's certainly been more productive. I do wanna see. I know he's like from the 23rd through, you know, today he's slugging.500 and his ISOs 209. I would like to see more like over the fence power from him but you know, because it's, it's not a lot of. It's not a lot of extra base damage that he's. That he's doing. It'll come, it'll come because he is as we recall, really quite young still. So you know, I, that part of it like I want to see that sort of Translating game. His expected stats around power are a little bit better than his actual. So that's some of it surely. But yeah, it's really okay if they take a second to get acclimated and sometimes you burn bright like right away and you look at the top line numbers, you're like, oh my God, this guy's doing great. And then it's concealing like a recent slump. Like, you know, who hasn't been particularly good as good of late is Kevin McGonagall. But still. Yeah, but still printing still. I say that he had two hits yesterday, one of which was a double. So it's not like it's been, you know, atrocious but like, compared to the very, very hot start, it's like a mini. It's not even really. What were they talking about on the broadcast the other day? They're like, oh, it's been harder for him. I guess it has been relative to how it was going in the early going. But it hasn't been like that bad. You guys tricked me. I'm going to, yeah. Email Benetti and I'm gonna yell at him. I'm gonna say, oh, Jason, you guys. I mean he does have like an 81 WRC plus since the end of April. So it's, you know, it's been a little rougher of late. But the. There's an M and flow to these things is the point that I'm trying.

[Meg Rowley]

Exactly. Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

To make variants.

[Meg Rowley]

There's growing pains. Yeah, he'll be fine. They're both really good.

[Ben Lindbergh]

They're both really good. You know, they're really good.

[Meg Rowley]

And the last thing I have for you here is also related to performance relative to expectations because we have passed the quarter mark of the season, as I mentioned the other day. Not the quarter poll, the quarter polls telling you how much is remaining.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I know, but.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, but the quarter mark. We are now entering Wednesday's games. We are 25.8% of the way through the season. And sometimes at these milestones, I like to do little check ins on performance relative to preseason projections to see who's furthest ahead of or behind the pace. So I have for you the hitters and pitchers who have most outperformed their preseason war. Depth charts, fan graphs, projections. So this is the combination of zips and steamer with the playing time estimates. And if someone hasn't played at all, I counted that as zero war and I just compared the preseason WAR total projections to the on pace, the current on pace projections, which takes into account the percentage of games that you have played thus far and sort of extrapolates it forward. So this is looking at actual production to date, not updated projections for the rest of the season or anything. So the players hitters who are furthest ahead of their war pace. Number one, Jordan Walker. Jordan Walker had just a 0.5 war projection. People were giving up, were wondering if that former top prospect was still in there. He's on pace for seven war, 7.1, to be precise. So he's 6.6 war ahead of his projected pace. So he's number one. Number two, Shay Langoleers. He is 6.4 war ahead, and he was projected to be fairly productive. 2.9 war, but he's on a 9.3 war pace, so not so bad. Matt Olson, whom we talked about last time, he was obviously projected to be pretty good, but has been really good. So he's 6.1 war ahead of his pace. Il tomorrow. Vargas, whom we talked about recently.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's right.

[Meg Rowley]

Celebrated, but also downplayed the odds of this continuing, but Nonetheless, he is 5.3 war ahead of his pace. Brandon Lau, who has been a key to the Pirate success thus far. Good pickup for them, you know, and it was seen as a good pickup, but perhaps insufficient. Well, maybe it was sufficient after all the tinkering that they did, because he is playing 5.2 War ahead of his projected pace. Max Muncie, senior Max Muncie, original flavor. Max Muncie the elder. He is.

[Ben Lindbergh]

That implies that Max Muncie the younger is Max Muncie the elder son. And then you're, like, wandering about time travel.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, the age gap there is. Yeah. Max Muncie of the Dodgers is 5. 4 ahead of his pace. Bryce Tang of the brewers, who's been great and again was projected to be very good, but has been way better than good. 4.9 War ahead of the pace. Andy Pajas, also of the Dodgers, 4.8 war ahead. Mike Trout. Mike Trout, who had a 2.4 war projection and is still pacing for 6.9. Nice. Can you say nice on the 6.9? Why not? 4.5 were ahead of his pace. And then MickeyMoniac. Mickey is 4.5 war ahead of his pace and, well, not quite rounding out the top 10. That was 10, I guess, but. But tied at least out to the first decimal spot. Ben Rice of the Yankees. Yeah, he had to be here somewhere. So he had a pretty solid projection, but he's 4.5 war ahead of the pace. So those are your. Your top hitters who have outperformed and then some others. I, I will just reel off rapid fire. Otto Lopez of the Marlins, Miguel Vargas of the White Sox, J.J. weatherholt of the Cardinals.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, great.

[Meg Rowley]

Top prospect making good. Ezekiel Duron of the Rangers, Azie Albi, as we talked about last time, the Braves, he has bounced back big time. Bobby Witt Jr. Even though he was projected for 6.9 WAR. Nice again, 10.7 WAR pace, 3.8 WAR ahead of the pace. And then Carlos Cortez, the switch throwing Carlos Cortez of the A's. Yeah, he is 3.8 warhead. Cody Bellinger of the Yankees, Colson Montgomery, keeping it up for the White Sox. That's fun. All right, so those are your. Your top hitter over performers. I'll link to the full spreadsheets here. The guys who are most behind the pace on the position player side, Willie Adonis of the Giants, he was projected to be 3.9 WAR, so the projections had pretty high hopes for him. And he's on a negative 1.7 war pace. So that's negative 5.64 behind the pace. So. So, yeah, that's not good. Ezekiel Tovar, even though things are maybe sort of looking up a little bit for the Rockies, not for Tovar specifically, who was expected to be part of whatever core they were constructing there. He's five. Three WAR behind the pace. Cedric Mullins, a lot is working out for the Rays, but not Cedric mullins. He's a 5.1 war behind the pace. Patrick Bailey, whom we talked about at some length last time he got himself jettisoned, he is 5.1 WAR behind the pace. Matt Walner of the Twins, 4.8 WAR, and Kibrian Hayes of the Reds, who it's like the longest thread in the history of civilization. Can Brian Hayes be good? Can he hit? Can he field? Can he do anything Lately? Seems like no, maybe not. So he's 4.7 war behind the pace. Kyle Rally.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Now, obviously he had. He had an optimistic projection. He was projected for 6.3 war, but he's on pace for 1.6. I know he just showered in his uniform and had a couple hits after he tried to. To do away with whatever is plaguing him by just getting very wet. So maybe that will change his fortunes. But he's 4.7 war behind the pace. Trey Turner of the Phillies is 4.5 war behind. And Lawrence Butler of the A's, he is 4.4 were behind in Alejandro Kirk, who's 4.4 war behind, but he got

[Ben Lindbergh]

hurt, of course that's unfair, though.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, I know. So, and then, yeah, that's the bottom 10, I guess. And then you've got Catal Marte with the Diamondbacks. Should have traded him. After all, he's replacement level now. Yeah, I'm sure that won't continue. Boba Shet, disappointing pickup thus far for the Mets. Owen Casey for the Marlins is not delivered immediately. Trevor Story of the Red Sox, the aforementioned Mookie Bets of the Dodgers. He's been hurt. He just came back. Raphael Devers of the Giants, Juan Soto, another Met. And Fernando Tatis, whom we talked about. Still homerless, right? He still, he still has not ended that drought. I don't think it is strange. And Bo Naylor, who got himself sent down, and also Salvador Perez of the Royals. So those are your, your top 20 and your bottom 20 in terms of pacing ahead of or behind war. And I'll give you the pitchers, too. So here are the the pitchers who are ahead of their projected WAR pace. Cam Schlitler, number one. Yeah, yeah, Cam, he had a pretty conservative projection and he's on like a nine war pace or something. So yeah, he's, he's 7.2 war ahead of his preseason projection. Not too shabby. And Davis Martin, of course, catch Martin mania for the White Sox. Davis Martin is 5.8 war ahead of his pace. Seth Lugo of the Royals, 4.1 war ahead. Nolan McLean of the Mets, who McClain was acclaimed, but he also had a pretty conservative WAR projection and he's 4.0 war ahead of his pace. The Miz whom we talked about last time, he is about 4 war ahead of his pace. Kurt Hogue, by the way, he wrote something about how the Miz definitely seems to have a tendency to actually dial up his velo against like certain guys or certain teams or certain sluggers. So what we were talking about the other day with poor Spencer Jones, who, who had to face probably the hardest pitch ever thrown by a starting pitcher in history, and definitely the hardest pitch that a rookie has faced in his first major league plate appearance on record. But was not solely limited to Jones. The Miz does seem to he lets the emotions run high and, you know, puts the pedal to the metal. Also, this is pretty surprising, but he has been great. Bryce Elder of the braves, he is 3.9 war ahead of his pace. He's changed some things. He has been pretty impressive. And Parker Messick of the Guardians, you can always count on the Guardians to find a pretty solid starter who exceeds expectations. So 3.7 war ahead of the pace for him and the Blue Jays. Not everything has gone well for the Blue Jays, but the Dylan C. Signing has. He's been nails for them. So he is 3.7 war ahead of his pace. Cater Montero for the Tigers is 3.6 warhead. And Shota Imanaga of the Cubs is 3.4 war ahead of his pace. So some name brand names and some pretty surprising names there.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

On the list of surprises, as you would expect, I suppose. And then just rounding out, that was the top 10. After that, the pitcher over performers, we've got Landon Roop of the Giants, Antonio Santatella of the Rockies whom we've talked about, change his pitch mix. Justin Robleski Robo of the Dodgers. He has been excellent. Max Meyer of the Marlins, Braxton Ashcraft of the Pirates, we talked about him last time. Louis Varland just, you know, playing every day, pitching every day as he did in the postseason.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, I, I feel like every time I turn on a Blue Jays game, Louis Varland is on the mount.

[Meg Rowley]

Yep.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I, I feel like I've watched Louis Varland pitch more for the Blue Jays than any of their starters.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, it's wild. Yeah, it's wild. They have lost a lot of starters to injury, but nonetheless, yeah, he's picking up the slack. Shohei Otani, who is hours away from making another start against the Giants. In fact, Carmen Majinski of the Pirates mentioned him the other day. By Max Freed of the Yankees, though he's got some elbow issues of some sort now.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, he's got a butt elbow is the thing, Ben.

[Meg Rowley]

He's got butt elbow elbow posterior problem.

[Ben Lindbergh]

If, if there's something actually wrong with Max Freed, I'm gonna feel bad about having been a little casual in my joking about it, but everyone has made this joke. So I think there's like a safety in numbers thing. But yeah, butt elbow. Butt elbow elbow butt or butt elbow. Which is it? We don't know.

[Meg Rowley]

Varland is. He's seventh on the Blue Jay staff in innings pitched. You've got Gossman, Cease Lauer, Patrick Corbin, he's coming up. They picked him up after the season started, but he's already made seven starts, 34 to third innings, and he's been decent. At least he's been Corbin esque. So he's, he's given them what they wanted, I guess. But yeah, Varland is leading the Blue Jays. At least Blue Jays who have not made a single start. There are a couple guys, Spencer Miles, Braden Fisher have made one start a piece. But yeah, Louis Varlund, the the only reliever, only who is that high on the list. Pretty impressive. And Jensen Junk of the Angels. And then the pitchers who have not kept up with the pace. Former effectively Wild guest Zach Littell, he is a 5.7 war behind. His projected pace has not gone great for him with the Nats. Cole Reagan's of the Royals, that's disappointing because he had injury issues last year and then injury issues again and elbows and shoulders and he looked so good briefly there. It'd be nice if he could get back to being that guy again. But he's 5.2 war behind the pace. Garrett Crochet, who was bad and then hurt, is 4.5 war behind his pace. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks, he is back for another go round and it's not going well. 3.8 War behind the pace for him. Brian Abreu of the Astros, 3.4 WAR behind Luis Morales of the A's, 3.3 WAR. Brady Singer of the Reds, 3.2. Max Scherzer, who has been mostly idle and also not good when he was an idol. 3.1 war behind Tony Santillion of the Reds, 3.1 war. Nick Lodolo, also of the Reds, 2.9 war behind the pace. And Griffin Jax of the rays, he is 2.9 War behind the pace. Even though everything's coming up raised these days. And then you've got Ryan Weiss, Simeon Woods, Richardson, Roki Sasaki, Miles Michaelis, Hunter Barco, Brian Baio, Jacob Lopez and Tatsuya Imai. Also Sunny Gray, Eric Lauer down there. So those are the highlights and the low lights. I will put those spreadsheets online and you in case you want to just see where any particular player is comparing to their projected pace, you can just sort accordingly. So so of those names that we've mentioned, guys who have sort of catapulted to prominence. Zack Kreiser at the Bandwagon last year after April he did a little April in review and sort of anointed some new main characters because you know how we talk about certain baseball players being the main characters of the league league. And so after April he just came up with a handful of guys whom he thought had ascended to main character status and that also like they would maintain main character status and that people would be talking about them more throughout the season. So his five after last April were Pete Crow, Armstrong. So that was a good pick. I think even though he slumped late in the year, he was definitely a talked about player. Jesus. Who you know, maybe didn't keep up the. The hot start, but. But was good, had a good year, got some Cy Young votes. Kyle Rally, who was maybe the most talked about player last year? Jung Hu Lee. That didn't really hold up, I guess, so much. And then Nick Pavetta, whom I don't know if he was that talked about, but he was good. He had a very good year, so that continued. So those were his five after last April. He didn't do that exercise again this year. So hopefully I'm not stepping on his bit here. But of these names, I guess it doesn't have to be one of these names, but it most likely would be who has sort of ascended to, oh, this is a main character now. Or like, this is a guy whom we will be talking about as a main character. I wouldn't call it a breakout, but it could be a breakout. I mean, some of these guys have legitimately broken out, at least so far. And that is how some people define breakout. It's like, oh, he just went from a hipster player whom, you know, the sickos knew to more of a household name who everyone was talking about. So who has reached that level? Like, has. Is Jordan Walker? Has he become a main character? Has he done enough?

[Ben Lindbergh]

I was gonna. Well, I don't know that any of them have done enough. I think you need more than. Than we've had of the year so far. But I would say that he is. Is sort of the leader in the clubhouse for me of the guy who seems likely to sustain. And that isn't to say that he, you know, like Ben just wrote about him and I agreed with his conclusion that, you know, on the one hand, it doesn't seem likely that he will be quite this good for the entire year. But also nothing he's doing is like, so wildly unsustainable that it seems like he's gonna revert to being bad. It's sort of like he's finally playing like the guy we thought he would be.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I do think that the. The change in his launch is meaningful enough to, like, really give him greater margin for error. He's always going to strike out a good amount, but, like, he's getting the ball off the ground much more than he was. Still not an ideal amount, but a meaningful enough amount to like, sort of pass over a threshold of like, viability, I think, to the. To the rest of the profile and allow the just, you know, intense raw power to actually play.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. So if it's like, if you had to tell the story of this season, so far, and you were trying to come up with names who would not have been high on anyone's list before the season started. Jordan Walker would be, I think, up there certainly, like, he's been one of the more noteworthy players of 2026 who was not expected or projected to be, even though people hoped, you know, former top prospect. But people also were giving up. So.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

And I think that the. The former pedigree really helps in this sort of analysis because people are. Are ready for, you know, an ascendant Jordan Walker. They. They expected Jordan Walker to be good before. So I. I think that it. It. We love the story of the guy who, like, finally makes good on his prospect pedigree. And I think that when you couple that with the team he's on, you know, a club that it's, like, has intentionally sort of taken a step back, but that didn't do such a dramatic, you know, that is sort of, like, primed to be good on a, they hope, a relatively short timeline. You know, we like it when you have sort of upstarts within organizations like that. And because of how bad he's been previously, he sort of qualifies. And like. Like, they're 24 and 17, as we're recording today. Like, they're, you know, they're a viable club in a division that has proven to be a lot better than we were necessarily expecting it to be. And if you can combine, if he's finally able to, like, be the guy we thought he was going to be, and then you marry that with someone like Weatherholt, it's like, oh, now we're kind of talking about something here. You know, this is. This is a group that could be more exciting than we were necessarily giving it credit for. Maybe not this year, although, like, you know.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Because the Phillies and the. The Met like, the. The Mets being bad. And I think we can just say that now. You know, like, that's a. That's not to say that they can't fix it. That's a bad baseball team right now. You know, there's not a lot there to recommend it. It's like Nolan McLean and then a bunch of suck.

[Meg Rowley]

Yes.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Is pretty much what the Mets are. So. So the Mets being bad and the Phillies being mid opens up some possibilities. Right. Like, do I think that they're gonna. The Cardinals are gonna win the Central. I do not. I think that, you know, the Cubs are good, although, God, they need pitching badly. And I think that the brewers, now that they're getting guys back, like, they're gonna be good and frisky and we're seeing them be good and frisky now that they're getting healthier. So I don't know that they're gonna like win the Central, but it could be an interesting wild card thing, you know.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah. So Walker would be one of my five just because of the narrative surrounding him, because the Cardinals overperforming and because of my relative confidence that he could sustain this, that he could continue to be productive for the rest of the year. So I had. I'd include Walker, whereas, say, Ildemaro Vargas. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, ill tomorrow. But I'm not, not. I'm not quite as bullish. I'm not quite as much of a believer. So, yes, I guess if you were telling the story of the start of the season only this might be the year that we remember. Hey, remember when Ildemaro Vargas was like batting.400 for a while, that might be memorable. But I'm not sure that by the end of the season it will hold up. So I have a hard time elevating what a 34 year old kind of career journeyman utility guy who has a hot streak, which has been fun, to main character status. But I'd go Jordan Walker, I would say Ben Rice. I think he could qualify as a new main character just because he's a Yankee. So that always helps. And because he's just like teamed with Judge to kind of become a sidekick to Judge in the way that Juan Soto was kind of like an Eminem boys dynamic that they have going here. So to have a second big bat like that in the lineup and he was already good and there were people who were very optimistic about him and the projections were strong. But of course he has exceeded, I think, just about all expectations. So he has been fantastic. I mean, they were trying to platoon him for a while there. I don't think they need to do that. So I'd say Jordan Walker, Ben Rice. I think Mike Trout has returned to main character status and maybe he kind of was already just because he was Mike Trout. And we talked a lot about him even when he wasn't good and we bemoaned how he wasn't good. So he kind of had main character emeritus status just for life, I guess because of what he accomplished early in his career. But he's kind of returned to that status of. Of actually paying attention to what he is doing now and not just in contrast to what he was doing then. So. Yeah. And then there are other Guys, I mentioned Bryce Tang, but like Bryce Tang was already really good, right? You know, know, maybe in more of a mainstream appreciation sense. But like, yeah, he was very valuable. He was on the WBC roster. He was. I think maybe he was too good to have made this leap. Like he got some MVP votes last year. He won a Gold Club. I don't know, maybe. Maybe he's reached a new level now where we could say he's become a main character. So, okay, I'd consider him for main character status. So, so yeah, Walker, Rice, Trout maybe, kind of. And then maybe Bryce Tang I would lump in there and yeah, I think, I think those are the hitters I would elevate so far. And then as for the pitchers, I guess you gotta put Cam in there. Obviously he became a pretty prominent character late last year when he came up and he had big playoff performances and everything, but it wasn't clear that he would be this good. So yeah, I think maybe Cam Schlitler you gotta elevate. And that says something about the hot start that the Yankees are off to. If they have multiple players who are maybe graduating to main character status and exceeding projections by so much. And then McClane, can we put McClane in that category? Because obviously he was a top prospect and people, anyone who knew who he was knew he was good and he was on the WBC roster and everything. But also just because he's done it, he's continued to do it and because he is a bright spot on that team that has struggled so much and he's just really looked the part of an ace. Maybe, maybe Noah McLean counts.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I do worry that some of these guys are like too exposed, that we have two, that it's sort of like a, a version of the breakout conversation. But yeah, I think that's okay. Like if, yeah, if Cam Schlitler is in there, then it seems like Nolan McLean has to be right. Like you can't keep h. Include one but keep the other out. It's like not logically consistent.

[Meg Rowley]

Yeah, and I don't know if this, I mean it's. Obviously the attention you get is correlated to your market size and how good your team is and everything. Like, I don't know whether Davis Martin can be considered a main character of Major League Baseball. He's. He's off to an excellent start. But yeah, I think maybe we would need to wait on that one a little longer. Whereas. And the Miz, for example, he's right next to Mlan on this projection exceeders list, but he already became a Main character. He. He was a main character from day one pretty much. He was like, he showed up and was an all star right out of the gate. So if anything, he was rushed to main character status prematurely and maybe now he's like fully deserving it a little more based on the performance and not just the stuff, but I think he was there already. So among the pitchers, I'd say Schlitler McLean. Yeah, I think a guy like Davis Martin or even Justin Rubleski, you know, even though people got to know him a bit during the Dodgers run last year, or even like Braxton Ashcraft. I think there's maybe another category for a top prospect who's new. I mean, someone who's like as new to the scene as Braxton Ashcraft or J.J. weatherhold or Connor Griffin. Like, they were kind of main characters just because they were top prospects like that. And so I think unless they become a post type sleeper, sort of like a Jordan Walker, then I don't think they quite qualify for this because I think. I think they were there and. And someone like Mason Miller who is. He's like in the top 25 over performers or. Or just outside it. And, you know, it's harder for a reliever maybe to make. Make that list. And he was already so good that he had rosy projections anyway, so I think he was already too good to graduate to main character. He became more of a main character earlier this season than he had ever been before for sure. But I think maybe he was already known as an elite closer type. So, yeah, if I had to pick five new main characters, I'm gonna go Jordan Walker, Bryce Turang, who again, like brewers fans, knew he was good, but maybe not everyone did. Walker, tarang rice, Schlitler McClane. And then I think that's right if we want to stick Mike Trout in there. But he kind of was a main character for life anyway. So. Okay, that's my top five. Our top five. If anyone wants to look at these spreadsheets or not and suggest anyone else who maybe made that leap to main character status and could keep it up for the rest of the season, then. And our inbox is always open. Okay, a few closing corrections, slash updates. As I noticed that the Orioles, after we recorded, recorded their first shutout of the season thanks to six scoreless from Kyle Bradish, a combined one hitter. And no, the one hit was not allowed by Rico Garcia. He didn't pitch one. On episode 2475, we did a stat blast about season starting. Home run droughts by players who had double digit home run totals the previous year. And we noted that Scott Psednik was the only hitter to hit 10 or more homers in a season and hit none the next year in the regular season despite qualifying for the batting title. While Patreon supporter Emily notes, I do feel the need to point out that Piednik did hit two homers in that postseason, including a World Series walkoff. Yes, very important. Those homers count too. In fact, maybe they count even more. And this reminded me that we actually did a quite similar stat blast about power outages on episode 1879. And that time we had to do a follow up on episode 1885, another pseudnik correction, because Scott Pnik had not showed up in the first stat blast results because of his postseason homers and he was, we noted, the only qualified homerless batter to hit two homers in the postseason. So the first time we did that stat blast, Potedik did not show up because we weren't excluding postseason homers. And we had to follow up to say, actually no, he should be the record holder. We shouldn't have counted his postseason homer homers. The second time we did the stat blast, Potenik did show up as the record holder, but we didn't even mention his postseason homers, which were pretty important. So we have corrected the record twice. We all know how many home runs Scott Petsnik hit or did not hit in 2004 and 2005. Also on episode 2476, we discussed a hypothetical about a ball being hit up in the air, a pop up and never coming down, and how would that be scored? And then that morphed into a hypothetical about what would happen if a bird seized a ball in mid flight and carried it past the fence. Would that be a home run? And hey, what if the bird then changes its mind, turns around and comes back into the field of play and drops the ball? So much to consider. Well, at some point in that conversation, I think Meg may have said that a grackle, because we were talking about grackles and whether they were part of the corvid family. Not Covid, corvid. And one of our ornithologically inclined listeners wrote in Colin Patreon supporter, who pointed out that grackles are icterids or blackbirds, a family that includes orioles crows, cowbirds, and other species that do a lot of cool, intelligent stuff, because Meg was talking about how grackles seem so smart they are generally recognized as intelligent, even among birds which navigate thousands of miles on their own first try. But I would humbly postulate this is a result of exhibiting behaviors that are easily recognized by humans as being intelligent, such as cowbirds laying their eggs in other birds nests, or caching food or guarding of food sources cooperatively. Grackles in particular adapt well to humans. Confirmed. They are everywhere in Phoenix and Houston. But blackbirds also generally suck at flying, unlike swallows and swifts which spend the day aloft. But intelligence plus being close to the ground and in urban areas makes them uniquely observable. And in the case of red winged blackbirds, lots of aggression, which again makes them visible and observable. They are very cool. Thank you Colin and Simon writes in to say, I just finished listening to your discussion of balls that go up and never come down. While the explanation is not as whimsical as a bird carrying the ball off forever, this actually occurred in college baseball. Last week weekend, a ball got lost in the fog during the Vandy Mizzou game and chaos ensued when it was never located. It's true. Here's the call. Can they take it back here in the ninth? That ball is crushed into right field. They can't see it. One run is in. Here comes a second, the right fielder Jordan raises his hands up in the air and Holcomb comes all the way around. I think the ball actually went over the fence. This is madness. No, this is madness. So yeah, it was so foggy the ball just disappeared. It was originally ruled a home run. Then the umpires got together and consulted with the SEC office and ruled at a ground rule double. And so that tied the game for Vanderbilt instead of giving them a two run lead. And so the game was suspended and resumed the next day with the score 7 to 7. And ultimately in extras, Missouri prevailed 8 to 7. And in the fog of war here, I think justice was not done in a kind of cosmic sense because it seems to me that the preponderance of the evidence supports the initial home run call. An SEC spokesperson said during the top of the ninth with runners on first and second base, the batter hit a ball to right center field that was difficult to locate due to poor visibility. Upon conferring as a crew, the umpires ruled that the play was a ground rule double, scoring the runner from second base. After video review, the call on the field was upheld as no video evidence was available to overturn the call due to low visibility. So video review was just reviewing the video and finding that you still couldn't see the ball. But the Trackman data estimated that the ball was hit 108 miles per hour and traveled 379ft. That would have been a homer. The hitter, Braden Holcomb, said he was 100% positive that the ball went over the fence. A Vanderbilt fan, possibly biased, but nonetheless found a ball past the right field fence, or claimed to, that was caked in mud with no other balls nearby. This was allegedly the home run ball. Someone else did some math and calculated that it couldn't possibly have been a ground rule double. So Vandy was eh, I'll spare Shane a bleep effed by the fog. We've talked about Eduardo Westbar's Fogo Power. This was fog power or the lack thereof. That's college baseball for you folks. Raymond Chen also said that our discussion reminded him as it reminded me I was thinking about this, but I didn't mention it it when Shohei Ohtani hit a ball through a gap in the roof of the Tokyo Dome and he got a ground rule double for that. But I guess that's not quite the same as just having the ball disappear. You can support the podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners Jeff Chiucci, Peter Aspelm, Sparky Wilson, Nate Jacobs and John. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to the unabridged third episode of the week coming to you next time. If you want to hear the whole thing, please subscribe. You also get access to monthly bonus episodes, exclusive live streams, our Discord Group for patrons only, plus prioritized email answers, personalized messages, shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, Fangraphs memberships and more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com effectivelywild if you are paid Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphts.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music and other podcast platforms. You can find our facebook [e-mail] group effectively wild and the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectively Wild. You can also check the podcast post at fangraphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats recited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with one more episode before the end of the week. Talk to you soon. Statistics. I want to hear about some prospect

[Ben Lindbergh]

I should know about.

[Meg Rowley]

Affect. Affect. Effect, Everyone. Affect, Effect, Everyone. Affect. Effect, Everyone. Affect. Effect, everyone.