Effectively Wild Episode 2480: The Most Embarrassing Baseball Play

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2480: "The Most Embarrassing Baseball Play" FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Hosted by Meg Rowley & Ben Lindbergh
May 19, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode provides a thorough analysis of recent MLB trends, standout team progress (both positive and negative), and a playful debate about the most embarrassing thing that can happen on a baseball field. Meg and Ben mix deep statistical analysis with trademark dry wit and baseball nerdery, covering managerial changes, improbable winning streaks, the rise and fall of players and prospects, and all the small, silly, and painful indignities of trying (and sometimes failing) to play the game well.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Phillies' Turnaround After Managerial Change

• [00:42–09:48]
  • Discuss the Phillies’ 15-4 record after firing manager Rob Thompson and replacing him with Don Mattingly.
  • Debate the impact of managerial changes on team performance vs. regression to the mean.
  • Examine health improvements (Zach Wheeler, Duran, Harper) and easier schedule as possible factors.
  • "It wasn't likely to be all that different under Don Mattingly. And I think so far that has proven to be true." — Meg [02:01]
  • Statistical context on team record, run differential, and playoff odds improves to 65%.
  • Reference research by Dan Szymborski and Neil Paine indicating managerial changes rarely budge long-term team performance.

2. Mets Snap Infamous Streaks & Injury Updates

• [10:19–13:45]
  • The Mets break a 91-game streak of losses when trailing after eight innings.
  • Injuries continue (e.g., Clay Holmes fractures leg vs. Spencer Jones), but team shows signs of life since the Phillies’ managerial change.
  • Humorous speculation on team “curses” and the mental weight for players ("I think I do believe in curses, at least on a limited baseball basis and more so with the Mets than others." — Meg [13:45])

3. Rico Garcia's Zero BABIP Streak Ends

• [14:43–17:32]
  • Oriole reliever Rico Garcia allows his first hit in play after a historic run.
  • Ben plays a clip from the Orioles broadcast and contextualizes Garcia’s record compared to Johnny Vandermeer and Dennis Eckersley.
  • Garcia praised for both stochastic "BABIP luck" and legitimately nasty stuff.

4. The Ethics of Gamer "Trickery": The Aggressive Flop

• [17:33–22:47]
  • Throwback to a previous suggestion: Could a weak hitter "take one for the team" by being intentionally hit and charging the mound to get a dominant pitcher ejected?
  • John Kruk, Phillies broadcaster, is found to have had the same comedic idea (audio included), delighting the hosts.
  • Debate on which types of players would be best suited to such shenanigans and how believable the execution would be.

5. "Oh No, the Mets": Humbling Moments on the Field

• [23:15–28:45]
  • Discussion of Joe Davis’s “Oh no, the Mets” call, triggered by a dropped fly ball.
  • Explorations of how Mets' mishaps become emblematic—one player's error is extrapolated to "the whole franchise."
  • On the emotional weight for individual players ("It's like Carson Benj, that's not you failing. That's a Mets man. Like, what do you expect? You're on the Mets." — Meg [26:13])

6. Main Segment: The Most Embarrassing Baseball Play

• [28:45–47:30]
  • Patreon listener Jeff asks, "What is most embarrassing: a pinch runner picked off immediately, a defensive sub making an error, a reliever giving up a first-pitch hit, or a pinch hitter popping up first pitch?"
  • Data: Pinch runners are picked off more often (0.6%) than average runners (0.49%) due to aggressive leads and game context ([34:53]).
  • Discuss levels of embarrassment: forgetting how many outs there are, being caught napping, walking in a run, failing the “one job” you were put in for.
    • "That's actually might be the worst one now that I think about it—forgetting how many outs there are." — Meg [39:06]
  • Distinction between physical mistakes (routine errors) and mental errors.
  • Hitting and pitching outcomes sometimes just the odds; mental errors linger longer.
  • Mundane but deeply embarrassing scenarios: popping up immediately as a pinch hitter, making a can-of-corn error as a defensive sub, etc.

7. Ambidextrous Oddities: Carlos Cortez's Debut

• [47:30–54:26]
  • Carlos Cortez, known as an ambidextrous ("switch thrower") player, takes the mound but disappoints by not switching hands.
  • Ben laments the lost opportunity for Pat Venditte-style spectacle, theorizes Cortez lacked the custom glove needed for true switch pitching.

8. Prospect Callup News: Mariners and Pirates

• [54:26–62:00]
  • Mariners call up 20-year-old Colt Emerson due to injuries; discussed as the youngest Mariner called up since King Felix.
  • Meg provides context: “He's 20 … and he's played 44 games at AAA, you know, so I think you want him getting consistent reps.” [60:20]
  • Pirates prospect Ostenson “Password” Garcia’s potential promotion mentioned (largely for his meme-worthy name).

9. Teams Most Over/Underperforming Projections

• [62:00–91:06]
  • Ben compiles a list of teams most overperforming and underperforming Fangraphs' preseason projections (~30% into season).
    • Overperformers: Rays, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, White Sox, Cubs, Brewers, Guardians, Nationals
    • Underperformers: Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Astros, Tigers, Mariners, Giants, Royals
  • Detailed breakdown of how/why (luck, opponent quality, under-the-hood stats, injuries) for a handful of teams.
    • "Part of it too is that they've gotten really great performances so far from the guys at the back of their bullpen." — Meg on the Braves [69:07]
    • "You expect there to be sort of a shutdown set of arms at the back of that bullpen and they haven't really had that yet." — Meg on the Rays [74:12]
  • Discuss whether strong/poor starts are sustainable, with both hosts expressing surprise at certain teams but hedging with skepticism about regression.

10. Quick Hits & Follow-Ups

• Corrections on previous DRS/statcast methodology ([98:30–101:40]).
• Minor corrections about player team assignments (e.g., Jonah Heim now with A's, not Rangers).
• Closing statistical clarification about pickoff rates, shoutouts to Patreon supporters, and community engagement links.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Phillies’ Recovery:
  “Now they're playing better. They're over .500 … things have improved in a marked way and that's really all you can hope for.” — Meg [02:01]
• The Mets’ Eternal Suffering:
  “I think I do believe in curses, at least on a limited baseball basis and more so with the Mets than others.” — Meg [13:45]
• On the Embarrassment of Mental Errors:
  “That's actually might be the worst one now that I think about it—forgetting how many outs there are.” — Meg [39:06]
• On Switch Throwers:
  “I hope that someone special delivers a special mitt for Carlos Cortez so that if he's ever in a mop up man role again, he is able to show off the fully operational Caros Cortez experience. Because, come on, we were cheated.” — Ben [53:24]
• On Overperforming Teams:
  “You expect there to be sort of a shutdown set of arms at the back of that bullpen and they haven't really had that yet … but also, you know, being able to be competitive in that division at this juncture and I think goes a long way.” — Meg, on the Rays [74:12]

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Useful Timestamps

• Phillies/Mets discussion: [00:42–13:45]
• Rico Garcia streak: [14:43–17:29]
• Managerial trickery & John Kruk: [17:32–22:47]
• Oh no, the Mets: [23:15–28:45]
• Most Embarrassing Baseball Play: [28:45–47:30]
• Carlos Cortez switch thrower: [47:30–54:26]
• Mariners’ prospect Colt Emerson: [54:26–62:00]
• Over/Underperforming teams analysis: [62:00–91:06]
• Corrections & Patreon: [98:30–end]

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Language & Tone

• Throughout, Meg and Ben maintain their familiar, lightly sardonic, statistics-forward style: self-deprecating (“Can you tell I watched the Mariners a lot?” — Meg [32:23]), collaborative, and intellectually playful. They dig deep into numbers but never lose sight of narrative and baseball’s (sometimes absurd) human drama.

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For First-Time or Skipping Listeners

This episode is a classic mix of Effectively Wild's best: granular statistical context, broader baseball trends, and light-hearted riffs on everything weird or embarrassing about the sport. Key takeaways include perspective shifts on the impact of managers, what actually embarrasses MLBers most, and a rundown of which teams' surprising starts might be for real (and which might not).

No true outcome (walk, strikeout, dinger), but plenty of well-struck nerd banter.

Transcript

[A]

Upstairs. That's inventory. They both mean a lot to me. That's why I love rainbow spiritual dances, preview series pitching, and pure poetry. That's why love plays. Effectively wild. Effectively Wild. Effectively Wild Baseball Podcast hello, and welcome to episode 2480 of Effectively Wild A Fan Graphs Baseball Podcast, brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Riley, the Fangraphs. And I am joined by Ben Lindberg of the Ringer. Ben, how are you doing?

[B]

Well, but not nearly as well as the Philadelphia Phillies. Now, I know we've had this kind of conversation before, quite possibly when the Phillies replaced Joe Girardi with Rob Thompson and their fortunes changed. But these Phillies are. Are 15 and 4 since firing Rob Thompson. That's the best record in baseball over that span. And it's not a bunch of fluky one run wins or extra inning wins. They have the second best run differential over that period, too, trailing only the Brewers.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

So what are we to make of this as rational, saber, metrically minded observers? Must we simply say regression and small sample or they were bound to do better anyway? Or must we bow before Mattingly? Magic.

[A]

I mean, look, I don't. I don't feel the need to denigrate Don Mattingly. Not here to blow up his spot. I'm not here to give him a hard time. But I feel like it's a good baseball team that wasn't playing particularly well. Seems like they were sort of due to play better and they had some guys who were hur. Get healthy again. And, you know, they have Zach Wheeler

[B]

healthy and pitching well. Good job, Donnie.

[A]

Yeah, he looks more and more like himself with every start. And they have Duran back and like Harper's playing well again. We already talked about that at one point. Schwarber keeps scalding the baseball. Yeah, if they can just get Trey Turner going and we cook him with gas over there. So I think that it's mostly this was a better baseball team than they were playing as. And I think that there was an understanding at the time of Rob Johnson's dismissal that they were kind of shaking it up for the sake of doing that. It wasn't likely to be all that different under Don Mattingly. And I think so far that has proven to be true. Now they're playing better. They're over. 500 as we are recording on Monday before games start. They are still eight games out of first place in the East. But weren't they like 15 out at one point or some bit of nonsense, you know, so things have improved in a market way, and that's really all you can hope for.

[B]

Yes, and their playoff odds are back up to 65%. And even if Atlanta hasn't exactly slowed down, obviously things are looking quite a bit better for the Phillies from a wild card perspective. They're tied with the Pirates three and a half games out of the third NL wild card, so at this rate, they'll have claimed that spot perhaps by the end of the week. But are we so dogmatic as to maintain, though, that the firing made no difference, that they would have had the same record over that spin? Because I'm with you, of course this team was going to be better one way or another. And it's not even as if Rob Thompson seemed to be some sort of pariah or something that anyone was particularly complaining about Rob Thompson, or boy, naming him, holding him responsible for anything. It was just, well, we got to throw somebody overboard, right? So are we still to say, though, even accepting that this was a good team, that it had the foundations of a playoff favorite and that its fortunes were destined to improve? Would we still take that to the extreme of saying if they had not fired Rob Thompson, if Don Mattingly had remained the bench coach, they had not rocked this boat, which was taking on water, they would have gone 15 and 4 anyway? Would you take it to that extreme of saying that things would have played out exactly as well for the Phillies if they had stayed the course?

[A]

No. I mean, yeah, I try not to be especially dogmatic about things. Just generally. I. This is a rather thin needle that I'm going to try to thread here. I don't want to say that there was a lack of urgency on the part of the Phillies players prior to his firing. I do think that when you are at the point in your season where the front office feels the need to make a performative managerial firing, and it is, you know, not yet. May you maybe sit there and. And go, oh, gosh, I gotta get my. My ass in gear here a little bit. I'm sure there's some of that. I haven't watched every single one of those games, so I can't really speak to whether there were any moments where, you know, we had a Mattingly stroke of genius that, you know, that Rob fumbled. But I suspect that much more of it is attributable to the team simply just kind of playing much more like their true talent level than anything else. But, you know, I. I guess one thing you can say. One thing you can say is sort of a roundabout way of being complimentary to Don, is That Mattingly at least didn't, like, lose the clubhouse. Right. There wasn't some rift that formed as a result of moving on from a skipper they liked, and then Mattingly's elevated the count. Counterfactual that I'm actually the most interested in, which we obviously can't know the answer to, is how different would it have gone if at all, if they had succeeded in hiring Quora? That's the. That's the alternate reality that I would be fascinated by, because I can imagine a circumstance where that goes worse, you know, where there's like a bristling and a. You know, you're like breaking in a new guy and it's like, well, why are you bringing in this guy who got canned from his job? Like, why can't we just keep our guy? We know and like you. So that one I would have been fascinated by to see how that would have gone. But I don't know. I think that's a good. Pretty good baseball team. They have some good guys. I think it's mostly just like Zach Wheeler's pack and. And looking more and more like himself all the time. So.

[B]

Yeah. And this has not been a particularly tough stretch of schedule for the Phillies. It was Giants, Marlins for four games. A's, Rockies, Red Sox, Pirates.

[A]

So gotta talk differently about the A's than you're accustomed to. Ben, you got a course correct on that?

[B]

Oh, yeah, I'm. I'm bullish about the A's, but even so, these are not the best teams that they've been playing, and they'd had a fairly tough schedule going into the firing. And yeah, it's not as if, even if you think that in this specific case, it might have made some difference. Obviously it's not a panacea in all cases. The Red Sox are nine in 10 post Korra, which is an improvement, but, yeah, not a noteworthy one really. But we talked about Denzo Borski's research and about how on the whole, over the course of 20 years and 40 firings, teams played precisely to their expectations, their projections at the time of the firing. And Neil Payne also looked at this on his substack, and he seemed to find a bit of a boost, at least early after a managerial change where teams outplayed their previous performance at least. Obviously, you're going to outplay your previous performance performance just because you probably underperformed if your manager is getting the axe. But even though I am more toward the side of managers don't matter all that much in most cases. And I Wouldn't say that Rob Thompson was clearly the outlier. The unusual case where he actually was tanking the team's fortunes. I guess I'd still say that when you have this sort of run of success, which obviously wasn't expected or projected, that if you did anything differently, it almost would have to go worse. Maybe I don't know exactly how or why, but it's kind of like 15 and 4. That's about a best case scenario. And so if you messed with that success, then probably it's all downhill from there. And so I don't know exactly. It would be hard to tie it to, okay, this guy got a hit in this game because he was inspired by Don Mattingly being his manager, or a fire was lit under him because Rob Thompson was deemed expendable and now who's next? Or something. So it would be really hard to connect the dots, but in sort of a butterfly effect way, I guess I might say that if they had not done that, my expectation would be that they would have had a slightly worse record. Perhaps if they had just stayed the course. But it's a long season and it's quite possible that they will. On the whole, from here on out, they will mostly play to projections. I wouldn't be surprised if when the dust settles and it's all said and done, we look at what Zip said on the day they made the managerial change and what their actual record ends up being and find that it's not too far apart.

[A]

I think that that's right. Maybe they. Maybe they want to do it for Rob. Maybe they. Yeah, felt like we should do it for Rob. He lost. He lost his job, kind of. It must be a strange feeling to be a player and correctly read the situation. As we were playing, like I'm going to do, swear we were playing like such a dog that this guy lost his job even though he wasn't really at fault for anything that wasn't happening. That has to feel bad. I would feel compelled to do better for the. For the skipper, as it were.

[B]

Well, the Mets did not make a change. Cars Mendoza is still their manager and they are. Since the Phillies fired Thompson, The Mets are 11 and 7. So things have ticked up a bit for them. Though the injury issues, of course, have continued. It's. Yeah, it's been rough. They just. They get one guy back, they lose another guy. Clay Holmes now done for months, seemingly after having his leg fractured by that. That menace Spencer Jones, he hits the ball too hard and sometimes at people. And Holmes just. In the latest example of superhuman pain tolerance or the power of adrenaline or whatever it is. Just he kept pitching for a while. I mean, I know not every fracture is like created equal. Obviously. You know, it's not necessarily like your femur sticking through your skin or something here. Maybe it's just a. What sorry it is with you lately. Ok, sorry. It's all the loose bodies that have been floating around. It's just, it's getting to me now. It's Blake Snell's got the loose bodies. We'll see if he has a snail scope or not. But yeah, sorry if I've been somewhat cavalier with my descriptions of. I tend not to be squeamish about these things and so I may just not anticipate what sort of reaction this will spark. I'm sorry Clay Holmes is hurt is the point.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

So. But, but things are looking up, relatively speaking for the Mets and just the first of a few follow ups here. The Mets did have a big comeback, late inning win and a walk off win against the Yankees on Sunday. And this is something that had come up on episode 2458 when we fielded a question about extended streaks of not coming back to win a game that you were trailing after eight innings. And we, we got a question about that because the Mets at that time, they hadn't done that. They had something like a 70 game losing streak when trailing after eight innings. And someone asked us if this was a record and we, and by we I mean Michael Mountain determined that no, it was not nearly a record and that the record seemed to be the White Sox having lost 205 consecutive games when trailing after eight from late 2023 and then into early 25. So no, it wasn't that noteworthy, but it still felt noteworthy for Mets fans and it was the, the longest active streak in the majors of, of failing to mount a come from behind victory when trailing after eight. So finally they snapped that streak. So it was 91 consecutive games I believe that they had lost in that situation. And then Tyrone Taylor said, Not 92. That's it. I'm drawing the line right here. So good for the Mets, a big win for them and they haven't had that many. So this was I think the last time they had won such a game in the regular season since September 30, 2024. That was when they beat the Braves to clinch that playoff appearance at the very end of the season. And then if you include the postseason, it happened in the wild card series immediately after that when Pete Alonso hit the homer off of Devin Williams. But yeah, it had been far too long for Mets fans taste and who knows, maybe that will motivate them.

[A]

Yeah, maybe. You know I think they got some, some reasonably good news as it pertains to Francisco Lindor and his timetable to return. So maybe they'll also be on the come up. It's so funny because they, you know, we should apply the same sort of analysis to their club in terms of expecting that a team that is more talented than they have played so far will play sort of closer to their true talent level. And that's not to say that like every move they made this off season was great or that I don't know what's wrong with Boba shot. Can't figure that one out. He's not being bad in the ways that I would expect his game to collapse. So that part of it is flummoxing to me. But they should be better and that's the approach we should take. And I don't believe in magic, but I think I do believe in curses at least on a limited baseball basis and more so with the Mets than others. So don't know what to make of that.

[B]

I also have an update about a streak pertaining to former Met and current Oriole Rico Garcia. Yes, because sadly his streak was snapped. We didn't jinx him, Kevin Brown did. So I will, I'll play a quick clip from the Orioles broadcast. You'll hear Kevin Brown and his broadcast partner Ben McDonald and this will be edited and abridged and combined. But you can hear Kevin Brown bringing up the zero BABIP streak that Garcia had going and then calling the end of it. Rico did not allow a hit for the first 10 games of the season. In the 11th, Kansas City's Michael Massie Homer he is now not allowed to hit in eight consecutive games. The league is 1 for 57 against Garcia. Just unfathomable number dumps in a curveball strike. There's no pattern to what he's doing. You always got to respect 95 and 96 because he's got that in his back pocket. But the all speed stuff has been outstanding. There is one pattern. Well yeah, let's hope that pattern continues. Here's an O2, a base hit,

[A]

a miracle.

[B]

That is the first hit against Rico Garcia in the field of play this year. So it was Garcia on Garcia crime. It was Luis Garcia Jr. Who ended this. And this was not seeing eye single or anything like that. He earned that hit. And Rico Garcia's streak of not allowing a hit on A ball in play ends at 211 2/3 innings dating back to last season. So he did set the record to start a season. But he will have to settle for a tie for second longest streak all time with the well known Johnny Vandermeer. So Rico Garcia just did what Johnny Vandermeer did essentially. Although he did obviously allow the home run in the midst of his streak. But he tied Vandermeer and trails only the all time leader Dennis Eckersley, who had just two and two thirds innings more. So he was almost there, he almost made it, but no slouch to be second and no one would have ever guessed that he would have been the one to do that. But he's been nasty. It, it's partly just BABIP luck, but also he's been good. He's been like a real, real live late inning, arm missing, tons of bats, getting whiffs, nasty movement, good control. He looks like quite a find for the Orioles at the back of that bullpen.

[A]

Sometimes guys emerge, you know, and sometimes

[B]

guys emerge after their Mets, but not while they're Mets. Much to the dismay of Mets fans. But again, the bullpen hasn't been the biggest problem for these Mets. And one more follow up on a conversation that we had earlier this season on episode 2463. We entertained the suggestion that maybe a team should consider essentially sacrificing a weak hitter to try to get an opposing pitcher ejected. Yes, by having the hitter get plunked, let's say, and essentially flop. But in the most aggressive way possible, to take it personally, to charge the mound. Because we found that even when a hitter charges the mound and a pitcher basically just puts up his dukes in self defense, he's liable to get ejected. Even if he's not instigating it or throwing a haymaker or anything, you could get him run. And we talked about whether this would work and whether it would be underhanded and who might be a good candidate to go through with this. And then none other than a broadcaster we have discussed a few times already this season. John Kruck. Great minds. He had the same idea. And I will play a quick clip of him. This is from Sunday's Phillies Pirates game.

[A]

Oh man, that got him good.

[B]

So he's hit by a pitch.

[A]

I mean if you want to get schemes out of the game, charge him out.

[B]

Right?

[A]

No, you didn't mean this on purpose,

[B]

but we got to get your ass out of the game.

[A]

I am just so delighted that some part of John Crook's Beautiful Mind overlaps with ours. Yes, I am terrified by that. You know, I do want to acknowledge the part of me that feels a deep concern, but mostly it's just a profound sense of flattery and gratitude that we could connect, you know, through space and time and arrive at a similar conversation. It's funny because dispositionally, I want to be clear, I don't think of Adoles Garcia as like, a particularly, like, aggressive guy. He's definitely a demonstrative guy when things are going well for him. Right. We've seen him really bat flip. But I don't. I don't read him as, like, a particularly, like, aggressive dude. Maybe I'm missing something, but that's not. But here's the thing. You got to deal with those arms, you know, sure, he's. He's like the. A weak hitter within that lineup. He, you know, we talked about this when he was acquired, and. And really, it's just. You want any kind of an upgrade with the bat and really any kind of an upgrade with the defense and. Right. And that's what you're getting with the dollies. But he. He looks like someone who could really wreck you because he's just. His arms. I mean, look, we know Crook appreciates his physique. We know he does. He wants to see him oiled up in wrestling. Like, we know that about John.

[B]

Like, see him and Garcia oiled up and flexing after a good workout. Garcia might have him this year.

[A]

Well, he's a big man regardless of the pitcher on the mound. I don't think this is specific to skins or anything, but I do think it would give you pause about your desire to rumble, because it's like, now sk. As. As no less illuminary than Michael Bauman has noted is built like the USS Nimitz. So maybe he's not going to be intimidated by Adoles because he's, you know, himself quite an intimidating figure. But I, I wonder if, like, the. The vibe of it is a little bit wrong where you. You have a. A pause that you must entertain to be like, do I really want to fight with this guy? Like, does that now, you know, he's got six inches on a dualist, so maybe he's like, arms or. No, I don't care. Let's go. But maybe not. Maybe. Maybe it's not quite the right. But you would inspire him to fight more. So maybe it is the right thing. Right? Because this was the. The delicate balance that we. We noted when we were talking about this. Like, you can't just have some little Shrimp of a guy do this because the guy, the pitcher is going to be like, that's adorable. What are you. What are you getting up to there, buddy? Yeah. Tired or something. Like, it has that sort of energy. And then if it's a really big hulking dude, well, then it's like, well, what if they actually fight? Then you have real risk of injury, so you have to sort of thread the needle. So maybe Garcia is the right candidate for this, both in terms of his offensive profile and also the fact that he's, like, big enough as a. As a physical presence to like, think that he means it and could do some damage, but is relative to skiing's shorter enough and Skeens is himself robust enough that it would, you know, it wouldn't come to. To real blows. But also, I think that Paul Skeens is aware of how important it is that he be on the field for the Pirates as much as possible. He probably wants to pitch in the ninth inning.

[B]

Yeah. Although in that specific case, the Phillies did not need to resort to trickery. They beat Paul. Skin's fair and square.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

He had a fairly rough outing. They touched him for five runs in five innings. So that's one way to beat him. Just hit him hard instead of getting him ejected from the game. Yeah. Instead of. Or at least threatening to. So, yes, it is heartening. Also somewhat disturbing that John Crackhead. The same idea that we consider done effectively wild. Maybe he's a listener. Who knows? If so High Crocker.

[A]

But I am skeptical.

[B]

I'm also. I can't. I don't see him as a podcast person.

[A]

I was gonna say, I don't think it's anything about us.

[B]

I think it's not an aversion to effectively Wild. Specifically podcasts.

[A]

Yeah. I can't imagine him being like, I'm a. Be a podcast guy. I don't.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I think that I. And I say this to his credit because wouldn't we all benefit from this perspective? But my. My sense is that John Crook views his cell phone as a phone, and that's all. You raised an issue on our most recent Patreon episode that you're flummoxed by all of the apps on phones and desktops, for that matter, sort of looking similar. And it can be a little bit discombobulating when you're trying to find something specific because all the apps are blue. I bet that John Crook has, like, two apps on his phone. I bet that John Crook has. I bet one of them is a bad.

[B]

Are we counting the phone app.

[A]

We're not counting the phone app.

[B]

Text message app.

[A]

Yeah, I bet he can text. I bet he can receive email, but never checks it on his phone. He strikes me as someone who's like, well, I gotta look at email on my computer, because that's where you look at email. It's sort of like how millennials can't book flights on their phones. That's true. What do you want to be able to see? The big screen?

[B]

I prefer more real estate.

[A]

Sure. He doesn't strike me as a. A podcast guy and, you know, God

[B]

bless him, he has appeared on the odd podcast, I believe. It's hard not to if you are a member of the media. But as far as I know, he hasn't hosted one and I don't know anything about his podcast consumption habits, but we can, we can guess, perhaps. So, yes, those are important updates for all of us. And I'm especially happy for the Mets that they pulled that one out because on Saturday, the day before that big comeback victory, Joe Davis had debuted a call. I'm sure you heard the, the, oh, no, the Mets call that Joe Davis gave us all for posterity. This was a Carson Benj Dropped fly ball. He kind of had a Aaron Judge clanked off the mitt sort of incident. And Joe Davis, well, I'll play the clip. Bellinger flies the first one to right center field, Drops the ball.

[A]

Oh, no, oh no, the Mets.

[B]

And I love that he extrapolated just from bench dropping a ball to oh, no, the Mets. Like, it was this very, just all encompassing. This was not just one player making a mistake that ultimately proved not to be that costly. The Mets were winning that game, and they went on to win that game. But it was just so redolent of the Mets, so emblematic of the Mets, that all he could think in that moment was, oh, no, oh no, the Mets.

[A]

Yeah, they do. They do inspire you to sort of extrapolate out from any individual moment of failure to sort of indict the whole franchise in a way. I mean, I'm sure it's not a relief to any of the players on the team because I bet they wish that things were just in a better spot for them than they are. But I wonder if it's freeing in a way. It's like, Carson bench, that's not. That's not you failing. That's a Mets man. Like, what do you expect? You're on the Mets.

[B]

Yeah, well, I'm sure that call will echo through the ages. We can trot out, oh, no, the Mets, whenever it's appropriate, which it's so often is.

[A]

I will, I will say on that there is a certain amount of risk to that decision on Joe Davis's part because do I imagine that the Mets are going to be the Dodgers biggest problem come October? I submit to you that, that they will not be even when they start playing in a way that is more in keeping with the, the actual skill on that roster. But, but it's a bold move as an announcer to sort of give bulletin board material to a potential rival. You know what I mean? Because if you're, it's one thing if it's a player, but you're just. I mean, no offense to Joe Davis, I think he's a good announcer, but you're just some guy, you know, you're, you're not, you're not involved in, in the production on the field. That's not your responsibility. Your responsibility is to describe it in a good, entertaining way and help fans understand it. But to potentially put something on, on a bulletin board in an opposing clubhouse, that's, that's bold. I think there's the potential for backfire there. Now the Mets have to do a lot better than they have for it to matter at all. You know, we sit here and talk about the Phillies being eight out, 11 and a half for the Mets, and they're 20 and 26.

[B]

So, you know, and you can't defend that specific play. It's not as if that wasn't an oh, no moment.

[A]

It's just, oh, no, Mets.

[B]

Other Mets might have looked around and said, I didn't do it, right? Oh, Carson Benj, maybe. But what did I have to do? How am I getting lumped in with this?

[A]

I suppose. But if I'm, I'm a guy on the Mets right now, I'm not sitting there being like, how dare you impugn my honor. It's like you don't end up 20 and 26 due to one guy. So, you know, everyone is shouldering at least some of that blame, except for maybe Nolan McLean.

[B]

Well, speaking of failure on the field, we got a question from Patreon supporter Jeff that I thought I'd throw out to you and, and the audience for discussion. So Jeff says episode 2479 had a stat blast about pinch runners getting immediately picked off. Ben suggested that it was the most embarrassing thing that can happen to a player on a baseball field. You know, because you had one job, right? You were brought in to do the running. Someone else earned his way on base and Then you took his place and your job was maybe to advance a base, but. But primarily not to be out. Right? And you couldn't do that. So. Especially if it was like the Sam Haggerty case from last week, where he got picked off immediately, that's pretty embarrassing. So Jeff says. That got me thinking about other scenarios in which a player is brought in to do one job and instantly does a bad job. A pinch hitter weekly popping out on the first pitch. A defensive replacement making an error on the first ball to them, them. A reliever giving up a hit on their first pitch. Could we rank these in worseness? A couple of thoughts. One is leverage in today's game with universal DH and small benches. Pinch hitters, runners, and defensive replacements seem more likely to happen later in the game with potentially higher stakes. Relievers, on the other hand, come in earlier, though not necessarily in lower leverage. Another thought is redemption. Pinch hitters and runners might get only one shot in that game. A reliever might stick around for two more batters. A defensive replacement generally stays in the rest of the game with potentially more opportunities to make up for that mistake. So can anything compare to or surpass the pinch runner who immediately gets subjected to a two plan?

[A]

I kind of don't know that. I think there is like, let's say you, you're a reliever and you come in and the bases are juice and you immediately give up a home run. Well, that feels really bad, right? Your, Your job was to get out of the jam, to help get out of the jam, but also you didn't put those guys on base. You know, that's not your fault. You're just, yeah, you're there to try to clean up somebody else's mess. And if you don't do a satisfactory job of it, well, don't spill stuff on the carpet then. You know what I mean? So it's. It's not good to be clear, and it feels really bad. But it's. I think of a different category now. When a pinch hitter comes in, their optimal approach at the plate is going to be at least somewhat dependent on what the, the pitcher in question is doing. I like it. It feels better to me to like, see a pitch. Like, see a pitch. You know, I think the, the exception to the pinch hitter being less bad is like, like, if you come in to pinch hit and the pitcher in question does not have it that night and they are scattershot and you immediately go up there swinging, I get very annoyed by that. It's like, see a pitch, show, make him show you that he can throw you a strike. My guy, why are you swinging away? Stop swinging away. Make him throw you a strike.

[B]

But what if the pitcher is thinking that, well, he's going to take one here and then he just throws you a meatball down the middle. Middle.

[A]

Well, you know, you got to react to the pitch. You have too. But I'm just saying, like, sometimes you'll see a guy come in and he will. He'll flail at a pitch that is not a strike. And he like weekly grounds out and you're like, what. What was that about you. He watched the two guys prior to you making three strike. Why are you. Why are you helping him out? You know, so that's very frustrating.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Can you tell? I watched the Mariners a lot. But the pinch running, it's just you are being selected for such a specific skill. You gotta hold it together, man. You know, and it's especially embarrassing because it's not like you. You never get. See, guys get legitimately picked off or thrown out on the base paths, but it does feel like a skill that you should have dialed in better. You know what I mean? Like, most guys don't get picked off. Most guys, if they're out there to run, they have the skill to do that in a way that is reasonable. So I find it very. Flaw mixing.

[B]

Yes. Well, I have some data on this specific situation because at the end of last week's last episode, I threw out a question for people to ponder, which was, do you think that the pickoff rate is higher for pinch runners or non pinch runners? Because you might be inclined to think pinch runners are probably better runners and therefore they would be picked off less often. Then again, pitchers and catchers are highly aware that they're better runners, and so they're going to be throwing over there and checking up on them and trying to keep them close. And also the situation when a pinch runner comes in, maybe they are often expected to be trying to take that base, swipe that bag. So they're taking extra risks, they're taking longer leads. So I asked Michael Mountain if he could determine who has a higher pickoff rate, pinch runners or non pinch runners. So I do have an answer now. And he filtered the time range to 1951 through 2025. 51 is when MLB first started tracking caught stealing officially. So the overall pickoff success rate is 0.49%. So 0.49% of opportunities someone is picked off, that's 4.4 million opportunities. And I think that was when a Base is open ahead of you, essentially. So it's 0.49% overall. But the pickoff success rate against pitch runners specifically is 0.6%, 0.6 higher than 0.49, and that's in 89,000 or so opportunities. So.

[A]

So pinch runners get picked off more,

[B]

but yes, they get picked off more.

[A]

Do we think that part of the explanation for that is that pinch runners are brought in with the expectation that they might be both speedier and able to advance the base and so they are taking like a larger lead and so are more like that. That's the explanation we would attribute that to, right?

[B]

Yes, I think so. And they're just going to be drawing more scrutiny. And Michael, slice and dice this a bit more to look at what happens with stolen base threats specifically guys who have some wheels. So against players with 10 or more stolen base attempts that season who are not pinch running, the pickoff success rate, and really it depends on whose perspective you're considering the pickoff from, I guess should be from the defense's perspective, but 72% in about 2 million opportunities. So that's against the stolen base threats. So that's the highest yet. The overall 0.49 pinch runners,06. But the stolen base threats who are not pinch runners,0.72%. Whereas the pickoff success rates against non stolen base threats, guys who had fewer than 10 stolen base attempts that season who were not pinch running, their pickoff success rate was only 0.28% in about 2.3 million opportunities. So even if we limit it to non pinch runners, the guys who are more liable to take off, they have a. A much higher rate of being picked off. And so I think we can say that the pinch runners having the higher rate is because pinch runners have a disproportionately high percentage of runners who are stolen base threats or you know, there's a real risk that they're going to go. So as Michael says, without controlling for how costly a pickoff would be given the game state, which is almost certainly not uniform across those samples and which should theoretically impact both how determined a pitcher is to try it as well as how careful a runner is in avoiding it, pinch runners overall are more successful at avoiding being picked off than eager stolen base attempters who reach base of their own accord, who are not pinch runners. So yeah, it's just a skewed sample sort of thing. The pinch runners, they're guys who can go in situations when maybe they're expected to go, and thus the defense is vigilant so that is the answer to that question, but it's not necessarily the answer to the question of what's more embarrassing. So maybe that minimizes the embarrassment a bit, because often a pinch runner is going to be taking a bit more risks. And it's not that they really have one job, which is not to get thrown out. That's easy enough. If. If all you had to worry about was not getting thrown out, then you could just stand on the base. You wouldn't take a lead at all. You couldn't possibly be tagged out if you maintain contact at all times. But they're probably taking longer leads, and maybe they've got the green light. Maybe they were even instructed to go. So now they still should not get picked off, if possible. But still, it's. It's an unusual situation, but I still think it's pretty embarrassing when you are inserted into that spot. And obviously it depends on the specifics and pickoffs can. You know, sometimes it can be scored a pickoff, but you're actually going. And sometimes it's just, you know, you misread the move and you dive back too slowly or whatever it is. You get caught napping or you're just appropriately taking a risk. Who knows?

[A]

And, you know, we have often made the case, and we are hardly alone in this, that, like, there is a. A good case to be made that runners should be going more often than they are, that there's a. A lack of aggressiveness that is sometimes to their detriment. Sometimes you need to force the defense to make the good play. You don't want to nap or be caught napping. It's funny that we say that. It's, like, so rude.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

It's like a deeply insulting thing, really. It's. It's not just, oh, you made a mistake. It's like you were fully neglecting your responsibilities. Do you think it's worse to be caught napping or forget how many outs there are?

[B]

Oh, yeah, that's another quite embarrassing.

[A]

That's a. That.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That actually. That actually might be the worst one, now that I think about it, forgetting how many outs there are. And it's true. It's. It's a fun one because it's bad on either side of the ball. You know, you don't want to be goofing around with how many outs there are. If you're the fielding team or, you know, you're on offense.

[B]

It's not always costly to forget. Sometimes you just have a brain fart. But. But when it is, yeah, yes.

[A]

That's because you're sitting at home and granted, you're being reminded constantly how many outs there are because it's sitting there on the score bug. But you, you know how many outs there are. You're very aware of how many outs there are. Etc. You're sitting there, always remember, and you're like, isn't, isn't one of your primary jobs to know how many outs there are so that you don't. I think that's actually the worst one. When it, when it costs you, when it doesn't, then you feel like you've brushed up against a ghost.

[B]

Yeah, that is a strong contender because

[A]

I think, oh, that sucks.

[B]

When that there has to be an element of unforced error and especially if it's a mental error because a reliever coming in and giving up a hit, that's. That's not embarrassing. It, it might be annoying, it's disappointing, but it's not, it happens too often for it really to be embarrassing.

[A]

And it isn't even necessarily an indication that you threw a bad pitch. Sometimes you gotta hand it to the guy, right? Sometimes a guy just, you know, he gets up there and he, he hits it. True.

[B]

Yeah. As the saying goes, the. The other guy drives a big car to her or lives in a big house too, or I guess I don't know what the saying is. Maybe there are multiple versions of that saying. But. But yeah, all these guys are good. So if, if you get beaten on a particular pitch, that's not that big a deal, if someone, okay, if, if you pinch hit for someone and it's like, oh, here comes the big bat. And then you pop up on your first pitch or something that's mildly embarrassing. Maybe just because you were inserted for your hitting prowess and probably the guy you pinched hit four is thinking, well, I could have done that, you know, and it's, it's kind of like Casey at the bat comes up and just goes down swinging or something, then maybe that's a bit embarrassing, but it's not that embarrassing because hitting is hard. So, you know, odds are you're going to make an out, right? You're Barry Bonds, basically. So, okay, if you make a week out and it's on the first pitch or something, maybe that's worse, but it's not that bad. And even pitcher, the odds are more in your favor in any particular point appearance. But it's not like the percentage that we're talking about with getting picked off as a pinch runner where it's sub 1% of the time opportunities that happens. So the only one I can think of other than what we've talked about, I guess. Well, when you can't throw strikes, that's, that's pretty bad because at a certain point it does become probably the hitters taking, you know, like if you've walked a couple guys and it's three, zero or something, that's an invitation to just lob one in there. And if you still can't throw, especially just walking someone on four pitches.

[A]

Yeah, of.

[B]

Of course it kind of goes beyond embarrassing into uncomfortable at times.

[A]

Right. You feel bad for the guy.

[B]

Yeah. Or when it verges on yips sort of situation. Depends how wild. If you're just missing by a bit, it's not quite as bad. But yeah, when you can't find the strike zone for an experience extended stretch, that, that's uncomfortable. And I guess walking guys with the bases loaded, that becomes pretty embarrassing. Especially if you do it a bunch of times. Like that's just. It's free passes, it's free runs. You gotta make them earn it at some point. So I think that would be up there or something like Carson Benj and, and having that ball go off his glove, that's pretty embarrassing. And maybe it would be worse if you were a defensive replace. The other thing, I think Russell Carlton has studied this and I think maybe he didn't find glaring evidence of a defensive replacement penalty within one game. When you're switching from one position to another, learning a new position. Yes, but I don't know that there's quite a defensive equivalent of the pinch hitter penalty where pinch hitters seemingly depending on the study, hit worse. And it's hard to control for because sometimes guys are pinch hitting because they had some physical ailment or something that prevented the them from starting. Maybe they're not at a hundred percent. And there's the DH penalty which doesn't seem to affect full time dhs who acclimate to that role. But yeah, when you're sort of put on the spot, then it kind of balances out because on the one hand you were chosen to do this job and so you must be especially well suited for it. You're a pinch runner, You're a pinch hitter. You must be a good runner or a good hitter. Or if you're a pinch pitcher, basically right, you're a believer, you're brought in. It's because your manager thought that you had what it took to get that job done and then you don't. And that reflects poorly on you. But also you were put in a tough situation because if you're pinch hitting, you know, you were cold and you were trying to warm up and you weren't in the game, or if you're a reliever brought in to try to clean up someone else's mess, you didn't make that mess. So it's a bit more forgivable. So if you're a defensive replacement and you have a ball clank off your glove on an easy play, and that's. It's a physical error, but it's almost more of a mental error if it's just a can of corn, if it's a completely routine play, Right. That anyone would make, then it's not so much a coordination issue as it is you took your eye off the ball, literally, like you were not paying attention or something. And so that's kind of on you. So defensive replacement or otherwise, if a ball just drops, it's not even like going through the five hole, you know, go between your legs, go under your glove. That's bad. But there could always be bad hops. And it's hard to sort of sacrifice your body, even if you're conditioned to do that as a professional player. But, yeah, just kind of muffing a really easy play or some sort of like, you know, it's Snodgrass's muff or it's Merkel's boner, like it's some. Some huge high leverage situation, and you make a mistake, that is more of an issue of lack of game awareness or something or.

[A]

Right.

[B]

You know, there's always overthrowing the cutoff man, throwing to the wrong base. That's kind of in the mold of the. Forgetting how many outs there are.

[A]

Oh, forgetting how many outs are so much worse, though. Yeah, I'm sorry. I think that one takes the cake for me. I don't know that I'm ever more frustrated than I am when that happens. I'm like, how did you. Dude, how. Yeah, half the time, too. And it's like, if it's on, I'm like, your catcher is often being like, hey, there, too. There too.

[B]

Yeah. The one that we talked about recently where Henry Davis ended the string of seven consecutive walks by Reds pitchers and he was up 2.0and then grounded out on a pitch that if you're Henry Davis in that situation, you probably shouldn't be swinging it at all. That's. That's up there, I guess, because, yeah, it has to be a combination of the physical mistake of. Of mishitting a ball, but also just the decision to swing in the first place when you're. That probably should have been on your shoulder.

[A]

Right. Make him throw you a strike. Make him throw you a strike. Don't get thrown out on the base pass. Remember how many outs there are.

[B]

You know, the fundamentals, the little leagues. Yeah. And I know it's, it's harder in practice at major league game speed than it is when you're sitting on the couch and saying, I learned that play in little league. But nonetheless, if you are actually in the big leagues, you should be up to that speed. So. Okay, those are some candidates. Please feel free to write in to suggest others that we may have overlooked the. The most embarrassing thing that could happen on a baseball field. And I guess, guess keeping it in the realm of baseball plays, maybe, you

[A]

know, I mean, if your pants split, that's the most embarrassing thing that can happen on a baseball field.

[B]

If you have some sort of.

[A]

That's embarrassing if you're on a city bus also, you know.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. So we're talking about actual baseball action. Some, some misfortune that befell you while you happen to be playing baseball. Okay. All right, we'll settle that once and for all also. So here is a great disappointment to me. So we mentioned Carlos Cortez last week of the A's because he's off to a fantastic start. He was one of the hitters who had most exceeded his WAR pace when we checked in after the first quarter of the regular season. And that is still true. He has a 165 WRC plus, not too shabby. But he also made his major league debut as a pitcher. He did some mop up duty on Sunday and this was exciting to me when I saw that it was happening because cars. Cortez is a switch thrower. He is ambidextrous and he made some history as we mentioned previously last year. Typically what he does, he plays right field or outfield, left handed and then he plays infield, third base, right handed. And he did both of these things in one game last year. And it was at least the first documented case of a position player entering a game, throwing with one hand and then switching their throwing hand and position later in the same game. So yeah, there aren't a lot of officially listed switch throwers out there. There's Cortez, there's Anthony Siegler, but he hasn't played those same positions. So. So this was exciting to me because we have seen him be ambidextrous and demonstrate his ambidexterity in A single game. And here he was on the mound. And so I was thinking, well, he's going to do the Pat Vendetti, he's going to be a switch pitcher on the mound. Because why wouldn't you if you were Carlos Cortez? And to my great disappointment, he didn't. And he threw left handed and he just, you know, lefty in the outfield, righty in the infield, lefty on the mound. Which I guess makes sense if you had to pick a side. But he didn't. In theory he, he could have alternated and he didn't. And so when you go to the mlb.com playlog for this, it knows, I, I suppose that he is officially a switch thrower. And so the playlog says before every plate appearance, Carlos Cortez is now pitching left handed. Yeah, because it's like the, the Pat Bendetti rule. Like you have to declare which side you're gonna, you know, otherwise you end up in the silly dance where especially if a switch hitter is up and you're just switching sides ad nauseam. So I guess they considered it as him declaring himself anew as a left handed pitcher with every plate appearance when he was throwing as a lefty. But he did that for the entire outing, which was disappointing to me, me. And ultimately he threw a scoreless inning so it didn't really come back to bite him. But he did get touched up a little. There was a little traffic, he walked Daniel Susak and he gave up a double to Matt Chapman. Both right handed batters who had the platoon advantage against the lefty Cars Cortez. So even though he limited the damage and stranded the runners, perhaps he would have fared even better had he been alternating. So yeah, I can only assume that he didn't alternate because maybe he didn't have the right equipment. Because what some people may not realize about Pat Bendetti is that not only did he have the capacity, the ability to throw with either hand, but he also had a special glove which looked like any other mitt from afar. But it, it actually had had six fingers or four fingers and two thumbs and then a pocket in the middle sort of splitting the digits in half. And so he could use this on either hand. And so he could just, he could switch, he could switch hands, which I'm gonna guess that cars Cortez as a non pitcher probably did not have a specially designed glove. And so that was okay when he wasn't switching positions mid inning. And he could have one glove for the outfield and one glove for the infield, but maybe he would have needed the special Mizuno Pat Vendetti model to do what Vendetti did on the mound. So I, I don't know for sure, but that is my hypothesis about why he wasn't doing this. Or maybe he just wasn't adventurous. I don't know. Also, he was, you know, getting it in there, like mid-80s. I mean, he, he had some decent stuff, certainly by position player standards. I think it was some of the hardest pitches thrown this season. So maybe he's just better from that side. Maybe it's like a, a Jo Angelo Sanja sort of situation where he is ambidextrous, but he throws much harder from,

[A]

from the one than the other. That would be my guess. But also like we're into like the third order level, like, like ambidextrous application, right?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean he must, you know, if he's able to play right field and third base and, and can do one or the other with either hand. Like those are both positions that require one to have a strong arm. So he must have two fairly strong arms. But yeah, maybe he has more aptitude for pitching with one or the other because he is a natural lefty. He learned later to throw righty. But I hope that someone special delivers a, a special mitt for Carlos Cortez so that if he's ever in a mop up man role again, he is able to show off the fully operational Caros Cortez experience. Because, come on, we were cheated.

[A]

Yeah, I, I think that that's right. Like it's just go buy one glove, you know, how much could it cost?

[B]

Yeah, come on. I know it's, you know, a special design and probably not something you can just, just walk into a store and, and buy off the rack, but he's a big leaker, you know. Yeah, the, the innovation has been made. The technology has been perfected in the past. It can be rebuilt, it can be replicated. So yeah, I hope he looks into it now that he is a professional pitcher. Also, some news for Meg's Mariners. We, we have a prospect call up Cold EMERSON. Consensus top 10 prospect in baseball. Mariners top prospect extended this spring. Was promoted to the majors. Made his debut on Sunday. So that's exciting. 20 years old, right? Youngest Mariner promoted since King Felix. Good company. So tell me about the arrival of Cold Emerson.

[A]

Well, Ben, how close of attention have you been playing to the Mariners last week? Look, they had to do this because Brendan Donovan went on the IL again. Yeah, and they were a little stretched. And it was one of those call ups where he was not initially in the lineup for Sunday's game, which I mentioned mostly to illustrate how like kind of last minute this decision ended up being. But luckily, you know, Tacoma's just down the way and as bad as i5 traffic can be, not an impediment to him actually getting up there. I think that were it, were it not for the injury to Donovan that he would still be in Tacoma. He's striking out like 27 of the time and I think Cole Emerson is going to be fine. I think that Colt Emerson will be a good big leaguer. He went over two with a walk. He did score run in in Sunday's game, a game they lost eight to three. That's not the best. I don't think that there was anything that I saw in his debut that made me think differently of him as a player. But I do think that, you know, they're kind of in a bad way right now and it doesn't feel amazing when injury necessitates a high profile prospect being promoted rather than like, hey, this guy's, you know, busting down the door. But I don't want to sound dis. Like he's 20. It's exciting. Like he's going to be a good player, I think. And here he is so nice to debut in the Steelheads uniforms because they're just so sharp. They just look slick. But it's hard to get super amped about it when it comes in like a bad loss and they look sort of rudderless, you know, it's like, can you also turn into a high powered reliever while you're up there, Colt? Like, do you have that. You know, we're talking about guys coming in in fun and interesting ways, you know, do you actually. You throw 100 by any chance? And like you want to help to solidify that bullpen. But yeah, he, he is up. I will be curious to see how long he is up. And I imagine that the way Cole Emerson plays will have a lot to say about that. But they're pretty banged up right now. You know, we didn't talk about how Cal's on the aisle for the first time in his big league career. Donovan, again, they have a number of injuries on the pitching side, so it. Does it matter in an Al west where like one team is exactly 500? Maybe not, but they kind of need to make some moves here. You don't want the. I mean like I was giving you guff saying you Got to re re. You got to update your priors on the A's leading the division at.500.

[B]

Oh yeah. Yes. This NL Central has no losing teams. Al west has no winning teams. Situation has persisted for an improbably long time.

[A]

Here are the position players currently on the injured list for the Seattle Mariners, Cal Raleigh, Will Wilson. That's also a big deal. Brendan Donovan, Master Bony, who I don't think is on the 40 but Patrick wisdom, Victor Robles, and then they are. They have both brash and spire on the aisle on the pitching side. So that's not great.

[B]

Yeah. I wonder what percentage of top prospect promotions are precipitated by injury. Yeah, at least partly by injury. Of course there are plenty of top prospects who make their debut on opening day. They break camp with the big club. I guess there could be injuries involved even in some of those situations, but especially with the mid season call ups. Often there's some sort of injury at play. I guess when, when Connor Griffin came up, I guess it wasn't really sparked by an injury. Jared Triologist sort of injury and sort

[A]

of like whoa, we have good pitching and remember how the offense isn't as good as it could be.

[B]

Yeah, I forget the sequence. I think Triolo might have gotten hurt immediately after that. Obviously he wasn't a great bat to begin with with. Or Travis Bazana for instance. He was brought up after Gabrielle Arias got hurt and then they had to move Brian Rocchio and then Juan Brito wasn't hitting. So it was a combination of an injury absence creating a vacancy and then someone else not doing an adequate job filling that vacancy and then you call up the top prospects. So.

[A]

Right.

[B]

I wonder. Obviously there always has to be some sort of hole to fill because there are many instances where a good prospect is just blocked by a better player at the same position for a stretch. But I wonder how often it's. It's totally just taking someone's job. Just someone plays, plays their way out of a starting spot and the prospect played his way into a promotion versus someone goes down, someone gets hurt and, and gets pipped pretty much. You know, but like, like legitimately gets hurt and then their spot is stolen by the hot shot prospect who comes up. So when Donovan comes back then I guess it depends on how Emerson plays in the meantime. But he is the shortstop of the future. Right. And so you have JP Crawford who is hitting well but continues to field. Like maybe someone who should be DHing or preferably playing a corner or, or something. Right. So if Emme Emerson hits well, which is obviously an open question. Is there any way that Crawford could be displaced in the short term, that Emerson could stay up, or does his continued residence on the roster depend on somebody being hurt?

[A]

I don't think you want him up there if he's not playing every day. Yeah, you know, he's such a young guy that having, you know, reps at a high level on a consistent basis I think is just obviously going to be to his benefit. And, you know, he played 34 games at Double A last year and six games at Triple A. It's not like he has a ton of high minors experience where it's like, okay, well, just let's throw him out there and see what he can do against big league pitching. Let's see if he can figure out how to, like, deal with that high fastball, you know, like he's 20 and he's played played 44 games at AAA, you know, so I think you want him getting consistent reps. Now, if Donovan is hurt in a way that stretches, then, you know, maybe this resolves itself. I don't know. I don't know what they're gonna do about J.P. he's in the last year of his deal. He is hitting well. So you want the bat in the lineup. They have a number of guys who they'd be better off d aging, but here we are. So it's like, what are you going to do there? You have two guys coming back from injury who you're presumably going to cycle through the DH spot a little bit as they're coming back to sort of ease their transition back into hitting. And you want them hitting every day, but maybe you want to give Cal more time off his feet when he returns. You want to give Donovan more reps at dh. So they have a little bit of a roster puzzle to sort out, and I don't quite know how they'll. They'll play it, but they definitely want Emerson playing every day.

[B]

Well, they have added a cult to a collection of coals that they already had. So this is exciting.

[A]

Many young guys.

[B]

Yeah. And speaking of Pirates promotions, there was some buzz that the password could be on his way to the big leagues, potentially Ostenson Garcia, who is probably a bigger prospect because of his nickname at this point than his performance, although he was was formerly a higher rated prospect and remains a prospect, but I think is better known than his pure performance would warrant because of the unusual spelling of his name and the nickname that has resulted. But he's been doing well after initial slow start to the season and he may come up to provide further reinforcement for a Pirates team that is off to a strong start. So, okay, here is a question. Well, this will perhaps touch on the Pirates. This will certainly touch on the Mariners again. But last week I sound so excited to talk about, don't I, when we talked about players who were over or underperforming their preseason projections through the first quarter of the season, this is kind of the team equivalent and obviously we've touched on some teams that are doing better or worse than expected. But I just, I looked up now we're almost 30% of the way through the season and I compared the pace that teams are playing at just extrapolating their winning percentage over a full season to their preseason projected win total according to the FanGraphs playoff odds page. And I just look to see who is pacing furthest ahead of or behind their preseason projection. And there are several teams that are about 15 full season wins or more ahead of their pace and several teams that are 15 or more full season wins behind their preseason projected pace. And I thought I'd just throw them out to you and, and see if you're a believer in in any of them. Which, which surprise team do you most believe in? And I guess that could be maybe the team that is playing better than forecasted. Which one do you like or has changed your mind the most? And then of the teams that are scuffling and struggling and suffering, which of them maybe do you believe will rebound whether or not they fire their manager and hire Don Mattingly? So, okay, okay, maybe we can start with the teams that are playing most over their heads from a preseason projection standpoint. We have the Tampa Bay race sitting pretty in first place in the AL East. They were projected for 79.7 wins and they are on pace for 108. So that is a difference of 28.3. And again, this is not looking at their full season projected win total. This is just looking at what they are on pace for given how they have played thus far. So 28.3 wins ahead of their preseason pace. Then we have the braves, who are 20.7 wins ahead of their 89.6 win preseason projection. Then we have the St. Louis Cardinals, yeah, who were projected to be mediocre 75.4 wins and are on pace for 95.1. So they're 19.7 wins ahead of their pace. Then the San Diego Padres, who had an 80.6 win projection, they're 18 wins ahead of that. And the Chicago White Sox who projected for 67.4 wins and are 17.1 ahead of that pace. So those are the five teams that are 15 or more wins ahead of their pace if they were to continue playing at this pace relative to their preseason projections and then just missing that cutoff. You have the other Chicago team, the Cubs, who are right at 15 wins above, or 15.2 to be precise. And one of their, their rivals in a robust NL Central, the Milwaukee brewers, who were 12.7 wins ahead. What else is new? The brewers surpassing projections. Who knew what. Speaking of. Next up on the list, the Cleveland guardians, who were 11.8 wins ahead of their projection. And then the only other team in double digits, not a good team, but not a terrible team, which they were projected to be, the Washington Nationals, who are were 11 wins ahead of the pace. So the big five, Rays, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, White Sox. Is there one of those that has impressed you or, or changed your mind the most and converted you into a bigger believer than you were?

[A]

Well, we've already talked about the Braves and my skepticism of them coming into the season. I think I have to lead with them in part because a good bit of their current success is being driven by offensive returns to form, but forms that we have seen previously. So that makes me more confident in them. I still worry about their ability to sustain on the pitching side, but, you know, maybe they'll keep getting guys back and maybe it'll be okay. It could be okay. They've got a reasonable cushion, so that's impressive, you know, And Sale is. Well, he's having a great season. Is there a gap between a ZRA and his fip? Yeah, but like, it's not like the FIP is bad.

[B]

And I'll say this about the Braves. They are the only one of these teams that is not overperforming its base runs record. The Braves actual record as we speak is 32 and 15. Their base runs record identical 32 and 15. So they have pretty much played. I mean, their run differential is about 20 runs higher than it, quote, unquote should be. Their, their base runs deserved run differential. But basically, if you strip out some of the luck and fluctuations, the Braves have had a, an under the hood performance that mirrors their record records. So that is pretty impressive given what their record is.

[A]

Yeah. And you know, as I said and have said before, part of the disconnect for me with them is that I just anticipated them being much worse than they have been because I thought they were too injured on the pitching side. And yeah, it's Been fine.

[B]

You know, I was very optimistic about the Braves at the start of spring training.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And then by the end of spring

[A]

training, like half their rotations on the

[B]

Internet list and Profire was suspended and just, yeah, everything seemed to go wrong and it seemed as if history from last season was repeating itself.

[A]

Right. But they have been stout enough in the rotation. Part of it too is that they've gotten really great performances so far from the guys at the back of their bullpen. So, you know, they've been kind of able to paper over some of that stuff. To the extent that there was an issue before, it's like, well, when you have Suarez and Iglesias and they're pitching the way they are, like you can kind of get away with a good amount of, of stuff and nonsense. You know, Fuentes has been fine for them and relief and so I think that I, I was more down on their pitching than I necessarily needed to be. And part of it too is that like, I didn't know what to make of some of the declines that they had seen in their hitters. Especially some of those guys have eight aged and you know, a lot of their hitting looks really strong and gosh, Drake Baldwin's fun. So I just think that they're a more complete all around team than I was necessarily giving them credit for. You know, Hasan Kim is back. So like they, they I think have managed to build this really nice lead in the division. Which isn't to say that they can rest on their laurels because, you know, we have the, the Phillies and the Mets sort of playing more like themselves lately. But I think that they're the most impressive of this group. The, the Rays. I don't know what to make of the Rays. I mean, the Rays. So the rays are, they're 30 and 15. Their Pythagorean record is 25 and 20. They're 24 and 21 by base run. So they're obviously outperforming. Their pitching has been more stout than I was necessarily expecting it to be. But I felt like they had space for sort of positive variance there just because of they're getting guys back from injury and you don't know what you're going to get with that. And like, is Griffin Jax's starter? I don't know. Do I expect them to be this good? Did I? I certainly didn't expect them to be the best team in the AL east on May 18, Ben. I didn't expect that.

[B]

Yeah, it's not as if they were completely written off as being competitive, but they were, were no one's pick to win that division or very few people's at least. And yeah, I figured maybe they could stay in it. I, I didn't think they would be bad, but yeah, I did not expect that they would be sailing along like this. And I think part of it is that, well, it's just the general anonymity of their roster, which is nothing new for the Rays really, but certainly from a mainstream perspective, they just have so much roster, roster churn and turnover. And this off season was kind of classic Rays. They just made a zillion moves and it was hard to tell what it all amounted to. And did they actually get better? I don't know. And can you count on anyone actually being here for very long? And I think yeah, they've been a little lucky. And Joshian wrote about them a few days ago and he always breaks it down in terms of what he calls 1x or 1/x games, which is like not just your one run game record but also extra innings. Because in extra innings, sometimes with the zombie runner you end up winning or losing by a lot of runs. But obviously it was, it was close. You know, it was tied after nine, so it was kind of a close game until they switched the rules around on you. So if you just look at how they had done in those games and not double counting the one run games that are also the extra inning games, they were as of a few days ago, ten and two in those games. And they'd done it with a pretty bad bullpen so far, which we're not really accustomed to seeing from the Rays. So as Joe noted, it's, it's just, it's kind of a weird, it's a

[A]

weird mix of things. But like McClanahan's been good and effective and Nick Martinez looks like a good pickup for them. Right. And Rasmussen's been pretty okay. So it's like there are parts of it that are working well and there are parts of it that you wouldn't expect to be quite so good. But like Yandy Diaz is having a great start to the season and Iran has been good and Caminero's been good and you know, they're getting like, okay performance out of Ryan Velotti and like he's so, you know, it's like they're, they're, they're raising it in a, in an interesting way. But you're right that like you expect there to be sort of a shutdown set of arms at the back of that bullpen and they haven't really had that yet, but, like, they're hitting well enough in other parts of their lineup and they're getting okay production out of their starters. And so, yeah, like, they seem like a team that's probably five or six wins above what you would expect from their underlying statistics, but also, you know, being able to be competitive in that division at this juncture and I think goes a long way because, you know, do I think they're better than the Yankees? I. I absolutely do not think that to be true. I don't think they're better than the Blue Jays, but I also think that, like, those ones are banked. So, you know, who cares?

[B]

It's funny, Rasmussen. I've seen a lot of fun facts going around where people try to stump other people, because Drew Rasmussen is on the list of lowest eras over however many seasons, minimum however many, many innings. He has a career 2.78 ERA as a Tampa Bay Ray, and this is his sixth season with them. So he's been quite good at run suppression for some time. He has a 3.19 ERA this year, and that's his highest as a Ray. So, like, he just doesn't give up runs. But no one really knows because he's been hurt a bunch. And even when he's not hurt, he doesn't go deep into games. So his single season high is 150innings. And, you know, he's kind of been a swing man at certain points. You never know who's going to be in the raise rotation or relieving for the raise. Like, yeah, Griffin, Jax. Sure, why don't you start? We're shorthanded here. Why not? So Rasmussen is pretty impressive on a perning basis, and he's done that for quite a while now. And so they're this weird team. They have an effective rotation, but a rotation that doesn't go deep into games, which is kind of classic raise. And also the personnel that they have. And then usually they really ride the bullpen hard, but the bullpen has been bad. And then they have a really good outfield defense, but a really bad infield defense. Yeah, you know, they have like some mashers who just are basically dh quality fielders like Kevin Arrow and Aranda. And you know, you only get. Get Diaz and you only get one dh. Yeah. So the others have to play somewhere. So, yeah, it's sort of a. A strange team. And whenever you see the Rays exceeding expectations, I think you're always inclined to just say, oh, it's the Rays, they've. They figured it out. They're doing something right. They've hit on something that no one else has, and everyone will be copying in a couple years. So I don't know. I think they're not this good, but maybe they were underrated a bit just because they just don't have a ton of continuity or. Or big names. But, yeah, it's. It's an awkward, inelegantly constructed roster, maybe. And yet the sum of the parts, not a bad team. So. Coupled with disappointing starts from Toronto and. And certainly Boston and Baltimore for that matter. They're. Can't really say, running away with this thing, but, yeah, they're. They're in a nice spot right now and certainly in. In good playoff position one way or another.

[A]

Yeah. And then it's like you look at some of the other teams you mentioned. Like, I. I think that the White Sox are. They're performing in a way that is respectable. You know what I mean? Like, do I think that they're necessarily a playoff team? No, because I don't know that more coffee is going to maintain this level

[B]

of

[A]

home run rate. But, I mean, they're a better club than I thought they were. The pitching's not very good. The pitching remains not very good.

[B]

The White Sox are fun. I mean, they're fun. Yeah. And. And we talked about this with James on the preview.

[A]

They were.

[B]

They were feisty. They were frisky. You know, they. They had a lot of good, exciting young players. They'd clearly turned a corner. You know, like, you could see the light at the end of the tunnel. And then they have some. Some really interesting players I was excited to see. Could Colson Montgomery keep that up? Yeah, I guess so. Sure looks like it. Could Murakami hit? Sure looks like it. And then you've got Miguel Vargas hitting as well as he has. Like, they just. Yeah, I. I agree with you. It's. It's a little light, it's a little thin, but it's. It's coming together, you know, and putting that together with. With some prospects who are waiting in the wings. I'm pretty high on the White Sox in the medium term. This might be one of those seasons where they're sort of at least a year ahead of schedule. I know it's odd to say that about the White Sox because in a way, they're, like, three years behind schedule and also a year ahead of schedule, maybe, but, yeah, they're kind of. They're constructing a core here, and it's a watchable team.

[A]

It's a watchable team.

[B]

It's the AL Central. So that, that has a way of maybe moving up the timeline a little bit, especially with the Tigers struggling, which we will mention in a moment, and teruble hurt and everything. Am I going to completely count out the White Sox keeping pace with the other teams in this division? Making it interesting, making a real run? No, I'm not. Ultimately. Yeah, they probably don't have what it will take this season, but yeah, I mean, 24 and 22. Do I think that they're that much worse than a.500 team at this stage? I don't know. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe that's kind of who they are. Like they're, you know, they're seven runs in the red run differential wise, so they're a couple wins above their base runs record, but not by a lot. It's not a complete mirage.

[A]

Again, it's a respectable club. They're giving people, you know, they're giving people a reason to watch them. And it's not just Murakami. I mean, Murray does help a good bit, to be clear.

[B]

Catch the Davis Martin mania.

[A]

Yeah, right. Yeah. Catch the fever.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Yeah, it's exciting. He's, you know, he's pretty good.

[B]

And then we have the Padres and the Cardinals. Now the, the Cardinals I had next to no expectations for.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And they entered the season as as much a non entity as the Cardinals have been in the past couple decades, they just seemed like a non factor and it seemed like a positive sign that they had really committed to the rebuild. And then you could kind of forecast, okay, a year, two years, three years down the road. They might have the makings of something here. And this will be an important year for them to figure out what they've got and, and who's worth keeping around. But for them to get off to a start like this after shipping out Gray and Contreras and Donovan and all the rest, you know, just like kind of moving on from all those veterans like this is pretty darn impressive that they get off to a 27 and 19 start after that.

[A]

Yeah, I think that, you know, we've spent a good amount of time sort of contemplating Jordan Walker's re breakout, reintroduction, ascent, whatever you want to call it. And there have been a number of impressive rookie performances this year and I think because the expectations of the Cardinals were low, like the, the way that J.J. weatherholt is playing is getting lost in the rookie shuffle a little bit. But like he's 119 WRC plus he's playing good defense.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

You know, he has eight home runs. So I think that they are getting contributions from both ends of the expected sort of competitive window. Right. Like where you could imagine a version of Jordan Walker who kind of continues to flounder and isn't well, is part of the next group that's good, but isn't viewed as sort of a core piece of that. But you know, if he's able to sustain this, like I think we have to reevaluate him. It hasn't gone well with everyone that they were trying to like figure out this year. Right. Like Nolan Garman has 93 WRC plus. So, you know, not everyone who they were sort of using this year to, to reassess and sort of understand better has necessarily been great. But you know, it's been, it's their respectable club and, and as you've kind of joked like, that's not a, that's not a gimme division right now. So the fact that they're playing this well, given the, the rest of the competition that they're facing in that division, like that's not, that's not nothing.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah, you're right. Yeah. They do have these still kind of confounding guys like Gorman, Lars Newbar, but they also have, I guess Alec Burleson's, he's hitting pretty well. But they have like Victor Scott ii, good glove, not hitting at all. So that's sort of disconcerting. Yeah. But when you have Jordan Walker doing what he's doing, doing, and you have Yvonne Herrera who's not only hitting as usual, but also has returned to catching more regularly, which is pretty exciting for me personally. But that plus Weatherholt plus Mason win.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And Burleson, like, you start to look around and okay, you've got the makings of something here. Right. And I was talking about Riley o' Brien as a potential trade piece the other day. Well, not if they keep playing like this. He's, he's older than the rest of those guys, but he's also team controlled for a while and if they think that they might actually be good sometime soon, then maybe you want to hang on to him. So, yeah, it hasn't worked out for, for everyone, obviously. I mean there's Victor Scott, there's Pedro Pajes, there's Matthew Libertor. Like some guys aren't really breaking through the way that they had hoped. But this is encouraging. Not even just because of the record.

[A]

He's been pretty good. Good.

[B]

Yeah. And I guess the record goes hand in hand with the fact that some of these players are playing well. But. Right. Even if you took away the record somehow and you just had a lackluster record with these individual successes, that alone I think would be more than most people expected from this club. So if they could actually stay in this thing and make this season interesting from a competitive playoff race standpoint while also shoring up hopes for future seasons, well, yeah, that's a big win.

[A]

Yeah. And you know, I think that when, when we talked through their rebuild or step back or whatever. It's not a step back. They dealt too many guys for us to, to use that kind of cutesy terminology, but it was clear that like they want, they want to be good reasonably soon. I think their expectations of it are, you know, not that it would necessarily happen this year, but part of why I think they took the approach they did to some of the deals that they did where they were getting a mix of guys who, you know, were likely to be big league ready soon and guys who were further away is to give themselves the opportunity to have sort of this, like I, I've already used the term positive variance, but positive variance, right. Where maybe you have a couple guys pop. You use the year to evaluate in a real way the dudes who are on your roster who are sort of in between cases. Figure out which of them are going to be important for you going forward. Now their biggest challenge as an organization, the thing they have to figure out is like, how do they develop this pitching? How do they develop the guys both who are in the system already and who they've recently either drafted or acquired? And you know, some of the early returns on those guys are, aren't the most outstanding. Right. Like Liam Doyle is an era of 604, but he has a 371 Fitbit Double A. So maybe it'll be okay. You know what I mean? Like, they still have to solve that piece of it, but you know, they have time to do that because I don't think that this should, this should meaningfully adjust anyone's expectations in terms of when they're going to be good and competitive again. The nice bonus for Cardinals fans is like, hey, you're going to watch a more entertaining brand of baseball this year than you are were reasonably going to expect. But like, let's imagine for a second that they are able to sustain this. They become a playoff team. Like, what are, what are we really talking about there? Right? Like you're, you're going to throw this rotation in a playoff series Like, I don't know about that. That seems, you know, game one starter Michael McGreevey feel good about that. You, you want Dustin May in your playoff rotation. So like, there are obvious, obvious limitations to this group in terms of not only their ability to sustain and make it to October, but then perform there, but it has to be encouraging and answering for yourself as an organization, which of these dudes are dudes for us in a year when you don't expect to compete to your point, like, that's a year well spent if you come away with answers on those players and you are giving opportunities to young guys to get run where it makes sense. Like, like that's, that's a good use of the year. Hey, guess what? We were right. J.J. weatherholt is good.

[B]

Yeah. Okay. And so from a base runs perspective, the Rays are six runs over. The Cardinals are four wins over. Not, not runs, wins, whole wins.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Times it by 10. And then the Padres are five wins above their base runs record. And this is with Fernando Tatis Jr. Remaining the hardest hitting, homerless hitter.

[A]

It's bananas.

[B]

It's wild.

[A]

It's. Yeah, it's, it's really something.

[B]

It's not as if that many Padres are having standout seasons. No, the offense is, is leading the team with 1.4 WAR.

[A]

Yeah, the offense is pretty lackluster just across the board. It's been, it's been a tough go for their, their, for their offense. Really not the best.

[B]

Yeah. Now Michael King has looked good and, and has been on the mound, which was kind of the key for him, so that's looking like it was a smart signing. Maybe some other teams were scared off, but yeah, you, you know, they've been kind of patching together a rotation and you look at just the individual stats and you kind of wonder how they're making it this competitive.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Because, yeah, the Dodgers have had their issues with health and hitting and, and everything lately, but the Padres are half a game back, you know, and, and equal in the last column as we speak. So they're running neck and neck with LA.

[A]

They only have one qualified hitter with the WRC plus above 100, and that's Xander Bogarts, who's having quite a resurgent season. Like, way to go, Xander Bogarts. You're having a, a great time. But like, their leader from a WRC plus perspective is Gavin Sheets.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And, you know, he's, you know, not so far off the qualified pace, but, you know, he has a 152 WRC plus. Miguel and Duhar has a 124. But the they're big boppers like Machado, Tatiana Piece and Jackson Merrill all have WRC pluses in the low 70s. Jake Runnerworth, my God, dude, like, what's going on with you? So it, it's a weird, it's a weird group because on the one hand they feel like a team that should be hitting much better than they are, but they're also winning. So I don't know what to make of them other than this is strange. And hopefully you get some sort of a course correction from guys like Machado and Maryland Tatiana Piece. And then, well, hey, again, you've, you've banked wins. You, you've kept yourself within striking distance of the Dodgers while you're trying to figure this stuff out. But I don't. Ben.

[B]

Ben, when are the Padres not having some sort of strange season? This is one of. Yeah, strange in a good way this year at least.

[A]

Yeah. So very odd org some of the time, you know.

[B]

Yeah, well, it's AJ Peller's team, so that makes some sense. Plus they're in the midst of, of being sold. I mean just. Yeah, what a weird year. And one cautionary note on the Rays that Joshian mentioned, even though we're talking about how they're exceeding expectations, they do have very flat swings and sort of, they don't walk a lot, they don't hit for a lot of power. They have kind of a Joe made the comp to a, a 2010s royals or 2020s guardians or recent brewers sort of offense where you wonder how it works. And it's kind of contact and average and speed and all the rest of it. And there's at least some evidence that maybe that doesn't hold up super well in the playoffs should they get there. Because even though contact guys, they might lose a little less proportionately speaking against high velocity, at least according to something I wrote years ago. But they have sort of a long sequence offense as, as Joe puts it, like you just have to string together a bunch of hits because they're not walking that much and, and they don't have a whole lot of big boppers and so sometimes that doesn't go so great in the postseason when you're facing great defenses and great pitchers and hits are hard to come by and you kind of hope for the three run homer and maybe they're not the best equipped to provide it. But just to get there would, I think, exceed most people's preseason expectations.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Okay. And then of the teams bringing up the Rear here on this list, the teams that are tracking to be 15 or more wins worse than what they were projected for preseason. Well, you have the Mets, who else, who are at a negative 19.5 relative to the preseason total. And then who else? The Red Sox, negative 18.1. Even though those two teams have course corrected somewhat, they are still well behind where they were supposed to be. And then the Angels who have had it rough lately and also long term, they're at negative 16.9 really over any frame of reference or span of time. They've had it rough 16.9 wins below where they were supposed to be and they weren't supposed to be good to begin with. With. And then the Astros, we've talked a bit about all their injuries and where they will go from here. They're 16.2 wins behind the pace. And then the Tigers at 15.2 and your Mariners just spared from clearing that, that 15 win above or behind bar there at minus 14.1. And then the other teams in double Digits, the Giants -13, the Royals negative 12.8. So the big losers there, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Astros. You could throw in the Tigers if you care to. I guess I could say are there any that you really believe are just genuinely bad? Are you a believer in their surprise suckage? But I was going to frame it more in terms of do you believe that they could bounce back? Do you see some of these teams as being better than their records so far would suggest?

[A]

What are my options again?

[B]

Mets, Red Sox? And we've talked about those teams playing. Yeah, Angels, Astros, Tigers, Mariners, if you want to include them.

[A]

I think that the Tigers and the Mariners and the Mets and the Red Sox are better than their records. Whether they'll be able to bounce back, I don't know. I think that the Tigers and the Mariners will have an easier time of it just based on the, the competition that they face in their division, which doesn't mean that it'll be enough. But I think the Astros are a bad baseball team. Generally. They seem like a pretty bad baseball team. You know how I know that they're not a good baseball team? They mostly made the Mariners look pretty good. When that's always a sign, that's always a little indicator. And then the Angels are bad, but we kind of knew that. And, and I don't think that the expectation expectations of the Astros were particularly high even with their underperformance. Like it just seemed like we're in a, we're in a period of slow swoon.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

And it Just becomes a matter of like, how aggressive does the team want to be in pursuing or rebuilds? I don't know. How bad you have to be. How bad? Well, I'll put this question to you so that you have to contemplate it for our listeners. How bad did the Astros have to be to entertain trading Yordon about this bad?

[B]

Probably, I think, yeah, you always want to embark on the rebuild. I'd rather do it too soon than too late. That was something that Branch Ricky was famed for, where he would just anticipate when he would have to move someone and the whole, I could finish last without you, that is attributed to him. But yeah, the Astros just fit that mold of kind of like the, the post championship Phillies where they just, they tried to keep it going. You really, you run into trouble sometimes when you say, we'll keep, we'll run it back, we'll cling to this core. We'll keep trying to patch over these flaws and, and we'll make one more run at it. And then the stalwarts just get older and older. And if you don't have that pipeline, which they had for so long, which was supplying new talent to the team, then it just gets harder and harder and the tires get more and more threadbare. And sometimes if you pull the trigger on the trades a year too late, then you're dooming yourself to maybe a few down years. Right. It can really be. If you, if you do it, yeah, you'd rather be too early. I. And not that, you know, in this era, in this environment where you don't actually have to be that good to make the playoffs, then there's always the argument for, well, could we maybe. Yeah, could we maybe make this work and squeak into the playoffs and make a run? And that's defensible, too. And sometimes we give teams a hard time when it seems like they don't really have a championship caliber team, but they might have a wild card winner. And in baseball, if you're a wild card winner, well, you could be championship caliber because the playoffs are pretty random. So, yeah, it's hard to pull the plug, I think, especially these days. So. So I, I sort of don't fault them for trying because they were so close last year despite having a huge injury stack. And so they could have talked themselves into, okay, we'll have better health this year and it will be better. And then they really haven't had better health. And you don't really expect better health as you get older. So, yeah, there's still Some pretty enticing players on that team. And so if they were to really strip it down, and I'm not saying old school, Jeff Lunow sort of strip it down, but, you know, a standard rebuild for this era, then, yeah, they would certainly have some takers and. And someone like Jordan, as good as he is. But. But even their quote, unquote, young guys aren't that young, like Yordan or Jeremy Pena. And then if you have someone like Yordan who is obviously defensively limited and has an injury history and everything else. And. And even now when he's healthy, he can still be an impact player as a dh because he might be, like, the best hitter in baseball. Yeah. But anything short of that or. Or less availability, then it's tough to construct a team on that foundation.

[A]

Right. And you have guys like Christian Walker, who has had a nice little bounce back from his first year in Houston, which was terrible, but, you know, he's 35. Like, do you really want to. But I'm just saying, like, they. There are ways in which their ability to capitalize on your Don might be limited by the fact that he does come with pretty pronounced injury risk. But you also have. He's not a free agent until 2029. Now, if you think that next year is going to be a truncated season, like, does that alter the way you think about how much time you have with him? So, like, I'm sure that'll play, but he would. I mean, he would easily be one of the most desirable trade targets on the market. I know we're not talking about the deadline line. I'm breaking my own rule. But I'm just saying, like, they're a bad club, and they're gonna have to answer this question for themselves in the coming month. Probably.

[B]

Yeah, I would. I would be open for business.

[A]

Yeah. And it's too bad for them because, like, they've actually been hitting well. Like, the offense hasn't been the problem. They're pitching. It's just been Garbo. I also worry that the Mariners are, like, psychologically damaging. Am I all on their own? Because he was their first team back after coming. Coming off the aisle, and it didn't go great. Ben. You know it didn't. So. So there's that. The Angels are. The Angels will entertain the Trout trade conversation again at some point. I'm sure they are pretty bad. I think they're just a bad club, and they are mired. They are mired in the suck, as it were.

[B]

Okay. All right. A few closing corrections on our last episode, I referred to the fact that jonaheim started the season with the Braves but is no longer employed by that team. However, I still misteamed him as Discord Group user Mulder Bat Flip pointed out I said he was on the Rangers, but no, he's on the A's. Of course Heim had been on the Rangers. He was on the Rangers last year and for some years before that. And before he was a Ranger he was on the A's for the first time. So this is his second go around with the A's. I can't keep track of where jonaheim plays. Where in the world is jonaheim? Well, for now he's in West Sacramento, at least when the A's are another mea culpa. I promulgated an outdated description of DRS methodology and I heard straight from the source. Alex Figterman, listener, Patreon supporter and Vice President of Analytics at Sports Info Solutions, which publishes DRS Alex says, I was listening to episode 2479 and wanted to hopefully clear things up a bit about the methodological differences between oaafrv, that's the statcast based Outs Above Average or Fielding run value and drs. At this point, both systems handle positioning similarly. Ben recalled correctly that this was a discrepancy between team facing and public facing drs. There's still some methodology differences, but Public DRS IRS has taken positioning into account for infielders going back to 2013 implemented in 2020, and for outfielders going back to 2021 implemented in 2021. So both systems do take into account the starting point on any particular play. Alex says, Interestingly, my colleague Mark Simon and I were just discussing an MLB.com article detailing Ray shortstop Taylor Walls ability to position himself perfectly. That article also posited that statcast accounts for Wells's positioning better than drc. Statcast and SIS theoretically use the same moment in time the pitch release to judge where a player is positioned, but we come to different conclusions about Walls's positioning prowess, so there's something to dig into there. You can actually find the positioning value we carve out for teams on fangraphs, and I will link to that. It's on the leaderboards on the Fielding Team Stats page. Alex says it's named a bit Funkly because the abbreviation RTS comes from Team Shift Run Save Saved, which is what we used to call this concept before the updated system and the leader this year, Taylor Walls. His raise. Let me know if there's anything else that would be helpful to clarify as you can tell from the fact that this has come up twice in a week, the word hasn't exactly gotten out as well as we'd like. Well, here I am helping to spread the word, the correct, accurate word this time. And I did ask Alex whether he's looked into whether there's any more of a disparity between DRS and FRV than there used to be, because I had seen some people postulate that there is. For instance, Joe Sheehan, writing last month about the Padres defense, said DRS hates their defense, statcast loves it, and increasingly I don't know what to do with those splits, which seem to be more common. So I said to Alex, I don't know if there's truth to that or if there is what it would mean. He said, we haven't looked at that, but maybe Mark and I can get our heads together on something. The methodologies are more similar now than they were a few years ago because of the components MLP has added, so I wouldn't have expected that kind of result. But there's also some room for chaos because Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs sometimes show different totals because column names or mappings have changed over time. The team DRS values are an example where fan Graphs has a separate positioning run saved value and the total that includes that value, while Baseball Reference has a column that claims to do the same, but in fact doesn't include the positioning value. That may have been the source of my confusion. Alex says, fun. We try to address these when we find them, but we don't always find them and we don't always coordinate as well as we could with our pals over there. So defensive stats in principle more similar than ever, but sometimes still different. To paraphrase the old effectively wild refrain, if defensive stats were different, how different would they be? And one final follow up on that same stat blast from last time about pinch runners that we referenced earlier. The numbers I shared for Michael Mountain last time were slightly off because of the way the retrosheet data is coded. Sometimes there's a pickoff flag, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the runner was actually put out. So on something like 30% of the plays with pickoff flags, the pickoff didn't result in a put out. So the rates I cited earlier on this episode were accurate. And I will also link to an updated spreadsheet with the individual pinch runner rates, which includes everyone with at least seven stolen base opportunities who has a higher pickoff range rate than the most prolific pinch runner. Matt Alexander's 4.7%. This is again pickoffs over stolen base opportunities as the denominator. And Michael kept that minimum of seven stolen base opportunities so that he could include pitchers Jack Flaherty and Tommy Hughes. Not to mention of course dead ball era Phillies outfielder Budweiser. That's right, Bud Wiser and those guys and one John Monroe. They all got picked off one time in seven stolen base opportunities. That that's a 14.3% pickoff rate and that's the worst. If you require double digit stolen base opportunities then it's Bubba Thompson who was picked off in three of 25. That's 12%. Matt Alexander was 16 out of 341 and Michael notes Senator Slash Twin Starting pitcher Pedro Ramos had 165 stolen base opportunities as a pinch runner and was picked off only once. On the other hand, he attempted only four stolen bases in his career and had a few 50% success rate. The most stolen base opportunities for a pinch runner who was Never picked off is 246 for Dick Schofield Jr. We would love it if you would support the podcast on Patreon, which you can do by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks as have the following five listeners Humber Pie, Not Humble Humber, Maureen McCord, John Ellis, Dave Finnegan, and Kenneth Perske. Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to our full length unrestricted third episode of each week as well as a monthly bonus episode, exclusive live streams and our Patreon Discord Group, plus prioritized email answers, personalized messages, shoutouts at the end of episodes, fangraphs memberships, potential podcast appearances, and more. Check out all the [e-mail] effectively wild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphs.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Music and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook [e-mail] group effectivelywild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectivelywild and you can check the show notes in the podcast, posted fan graphs or or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We will be back with another episode a little later this week. Talk to you then.

[A]

How are you?

[B]

I'm okay. We got so much to do today. Breaking balls and blinking snouts and those stats won't blast themselves.

[A]

Effectively wild, effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild, effectively wild.