← Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Loading summary
Transcript245 lines
- [00:03]
A
The show is called Effectively Wild.
- [00:06]
B
It's about baseball and stunts.
- [00:10]
A
We might meet a major league guy, break down some autonomy and effectively wild. Effectively Wild. Effectively Wild. Effectively wild.
- [00:32]
B
Hello and welcome to episode 2483 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Rowley of fangraphs. Hello, Meg.
- [00:45]
A
Hello.
- [00:46]
B
Well, on our last episode last week, I sounded the alarm that Craig Kimbrell was on the loose. And in fact, he is no longer on the loose because he has been captured by the Tampa Bay Rays. So the Mets designated him for assignment. And as we were recording, I brought up a blog post that was published by one of the Sports Illustrated affiliated blogs that suggested that there were four bullpens that Craig Kimbrell could help right now. And I poo pooed the idea that he could help any bullpens. What evidence do we have that he could help bullpens? And the four bullpens in question were the Reds, the Dodgers, the Phillies, and the Rays. So my apologies to Patrick McAvoy, who blogged about this for Sports Illustrated and suggested that Craig Kimbrell could help the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen. Because you know what? It seems like the Tampa Bay Rays agreed that Craig Kimbrell could help their bullpen. It's a big league deal, Maggie. It's a major league contract.
- [01:51]
A
Is he a witch? You know, I think we have two. We have two options that we have to contemplate. Either Greg Kimbrell is a witch, or the Rays think that they are witches.
- [02:05]
B
Well, that's quite possible. Yeah.
- [02:07]
A
You know, of the clubs that we. We sort of poo pooed. I think our. Our biggest objection was to the notion that the Dodgers, which are currently second in fangraph's war among their relievers, had had a real need for Kimbrell. The rays currently ranked 22nd, uh, the Reds dead last. Who's the fourth team? Remind me.
- [02:29]
B
The Phillies.
- [02:30]
A
The Phillies are fourth. So the contenders. I think we were really mostly surprised by the Dodgers and the Phils because, like, they have good bullpens already. They don't. They don't need to introduce a chaos agent.
- [02:41]
B
Yeah.
- [02:41]
A
Who is potentially a witch. Tampa Bay, despite the success that they are having having as a team, pretty poultry in terms of the, the production that they've gotten out of their relief cores. We, we noted when we were trying to make sense of their success, who are three and a half games up on the Yankees, even after splitting a series with them. This weekend. So I think he's a witch. The other archetype that I might invoke here is that Craig Kimbrell. And I, I don't mean this as an offense to him as a human man with an actual personality and values, because I don't know Craig. So he might just be as sweet as can be and a, and a good hang, but he, he also alternatively is like the guy in high school that a lot of people date thinking they can fix him. And then it's like, you can't. He just, yeah, you know, he needs to have like a run in with the law and take the right class in college and maybe get kicked out once or twice before he like really hits rock bottom and then is like, oh, I should find a new way in my life. So he's a witcher, a dirtbag. Those are, yeah, those are the options.
- [03:46]
B
How many teams now have concluded that they could fix Greg Kimbrell and been disabused of that notion? It's, it's a lot. He is, he's getting up almost Octavio Dotel, Rich Hill territory. Depending on whether he actually appears for the raise and how many more teams take a chance on Kimbrell, he might actually get there. But yeah, my skepticism wasn't even so much team specific as it was Kimbrell specific. It was more, can Craig Kimbrell help any team relief at this point? Can he offer relief? Do teams need relief from Craig Kimbrell at this stage of his career? And it's true. The Rays, even though we think of them as an team that typically has a good bullpen, they haven't so much this year. They have been barely in the top 10 in baseball over the past 30 days in bullpen war. But also sub replacement level pen over the past two weeks. Right. And they just used five pitchers in a 13 inning loss to the Orioles. So maybe they're just looking for a fresh arm though. Again, I don't know how fresh Craig Imprill's arm is at age 38 or whatever. He is almost 38. Hey, it's his this week. Craig Kimball will turn 38 on Thursday. So happy early birthday, Craig. Obviously we're sending you well wishes as you can all tell, but yeah, if anyone can.
- [05:11]
A
Radiating through the microphone.
- [05:13]
B
Yeah, I don't not wish him well. I just, I have my doubts that he will pitch well. But if any team could do it, it might be the Rays. And maybe they can come up with some miraculous reinvention here. It would not be the first time.
- [05:29]
A
No it certainly wouldn't. And you know, is he good? No. Like he's not, he's not good right now. He's not as bad as his era, but it's not like his peripherals are particularly sterling. There's not some, you know, he hasn't suffered some massive, massive letdown on the part of defenses or what have you. Like he still has a FIP approaching 5. I guess his XCRA is like 4, 3. I think it's mostly what you said though. They just played a very long game and maybe they're trying to see if they can get anything going there. Do you think that that Orioles raise game ruined Robbie and Fred's Memorial Day?
- [06:13]
B
Yeah, because. Because it was four innings too many.
- [06:17]
A
Right. Just went and went and went. I was like, he's, he's pacing, he's throwing up, he's falling down, he is in agony. And it's all the fault of the Rays and the. Yeah, a lot of Terps off at that game. I noticed a lot of Terps off this weekend. Just like the Terps, they're off, you know.
- [06:36]
B
Well, Memorial Day, it's a milestone. Summer's coming, temperatures are rising. It's probably a more fitting time for tarps to be off.
- [06:45]
A
But yeah, what, what better way to honor the fallen than to take your tr.
- [06:50]
B
Yeah, well, Rob got his way because ultimately it was only four extra innings and maybe it would have been more in the pre Zombie Runner era. So it was one of those games that's obvious. Obviously it's close and low scoring when it gets to extras and then it ends up being a high scoring game and, and it's deceptive because it's zombie runner driven.
- [07:14]
A
Right.
- [07:14]
B
And it was, it was, it doesn't really tell the story of the game. It was a 9 to 7 Orioles win ultimately. But it was what, 2 to 2 after 9 and then suddenly you get a free runner at the start of every inning and oh, now we can score. How about that? So it's a little bit, bit deceptive, but yeah. Congrats to Colton Kauser. Right. For having another walk off Dinger. Yeah, I guess it was on back to back days but not back to
- [07:44]
A
back games because they had the double header.
- [07:48]
B
Yeah. And so there was a non Colton Kauser walk off game in between the two Colton counters or walk off games. But it was still a rare event and I think he was the fifth player I saw, according to Elias, the fifth player in the last 25 years with two walk off homers in a three team game. Span joining Jonah Heim in 2021, Albert Pujols in 2011, Barry Bonds in 2003 and Vladimir Guerrero Sr. 2002. So you got three hall of Famers or hall of Fame caliber batters there, plus Jonah and Colton Kauser. But yeah, according to our personal stat Blaster. Who needs the Elias Sports Bureau when you have our frequent stat blast correspondence, Michael Mountain determined that this was the 12th time on record that a guy hit a walk off homer two days in a row, irrespective of whether there was a game in between. Sure, but. But the Jonah Heim incident was the last time that it happened. And then Pujols in 2011, Albert Bell, 1995, Alvin Davis 86, Fred Lynn 85, Tom Petoric 81, Ron Santos 66, Johnny Callison 62, Don Dillard 62, Bud. Such apologies, Sauchak. It could be so many possibilities, pronunciation possibilities in 1952 and Wes Farrell, the pitcher who is not the hall of Fame feral brother but probably should be in 1935. So it's still quite a rare event. But there's a little mini blast for you.
- [09:27]
A
I love how you say the Jonah Heim incident like it's a, like Pula film. You know, it's like there's the, the Paranoia trilogy. And then you, you go into that. Yeah.
- [09:37]
B
Should we do a, a bet about Kimbrell? Because remember, we've done, we did a, we did a bet about a previous reliever the Rays picked up. I am remembering a couple years ago. Gosh, who was it? I'm remembering partially, but not remembering entirely. But there was a, it was a
- [09:55]
A
moving incident for you. Clearly.
- [09:57]
B
It was something I, I tracked all season long. But it was a, a reliever who was released by the White Sox, I want to say, with a high era. And then the Rays picked him up and we predicted what his FIP would be over the rest of the season or something. And predictably it was better than it had been and maybe it was even better than we predicted it would be.
- [10:22]
A
Was that a Meg era episode? Am I forgetting our own lore? It does sound familiar now that you
- [10:28]
B
say it was a, it was a Meg era episode. Yeah, but there, the Meg era, it's, it encompasses quite a span of time. Now, you know, you've been doing this for quite a while.
- [10:38]
A
I know I'm almost 40.
- [10:40]
B
But you haven't been doing it that long.
- [10:43]
A
Quite, Quite that long.
- [10:44]
B
But, you know, but I don't know if I have it in me to predict a Craig Kimbrel sans as much As I respect the Ray's powers of pitching rejuvenation. Yeah, I just. I don't know. I don't know if he has it in him.
- [10:59]
A
Doesn't feel quite right. It's funny when you're a guy who has had the level of success that Craig Kimberell has in the past, even if it's the, the distant past, because we're, we're never judging him relative to, like, you know, his 1.3 war season in Boston in 2018. We're. We're thinking of Craig Kimbrell as peak. Craig Kimbrell. Right. We're thinking about him in terms of the, the good years in Atlanta, the best years in Boston. Like, that's the version of him that we are sort of comparing him to. And that's in some ways like an unfair yardstick because you could be a rosterable reliever, a serviceable reliever, and not, you know, have a ERA that's barely over one. Right. You can be useful to a big league club. He hasn't been that guy either, for the most part. But like, he wasn't terrible for Philly. And that was only two years ago. Three years ago. Three years ago. I'm almost 40.
- [12:03]
B
Yeah. But even when he was sometimes good for a team, he always wore out his welcome by the end. I mean, I guess makes him sound
- [12:11]
A
like a very unpleasant person.
- [12:12]
B
I know. Purely on a pitching level. I'm not suggesting. We don't know if anything, he must be good company that teams want.
- [12:19]
A
Yeah, I guess that's true.
- [12:21]
B
They must put out feelers. Hey, is this a good clubhouse guy? And evidently they're getting good enough recommendations that people keep picking him up. But he does wear out his welcome as a pitcher purely. And. And it's always. He lulls you into a false sense of security and you start him out in low leverage and then suddenly someone gets hurt or he strings together some good outings and then next thing you know, he's pitching in important games and he's blowing them. And then people are playing hot potato with him once. We'll see. I'm sure the, the Rays are not making a major commitment to Craig Kimbrell here, but if anyone can find the, the inner Kimbrell that teams seem to keep seeing. It's just he doesn't have the same stuff that he used to have either. It's not purely an issue of command or whatever else. Like, he's not flame throwing the way he once was, nor would one expect him to at this age.
- [13:16]
A
Yeah, I think that.
- [13:17]
B
That's because he's almost 42. Not quite as close as you are.
- [13:20]
A
I know it's devastating. I don't care for it. Doesn't he seem much older than I am? He's lived a more peripatetic life than I have. And I've been around, you know.
- [13:30]
B
Yeah. You've had one job for years now, so.
- [13:34]
A
Oh my God. That's true. I've had this job. Wow. I've had this job for almost a decade now.
- [13:42]
B
Yeah. Yeah. We've both been fortunate in a topsy turvy media environment. Fingers crossed. It was Jake Dman. Jake Dman.
- [13:54]
A
Jake Diekman.
- [13:55]
B
Apologies to Jake Diekman and everyone else who was yelling at the podcast player Jake Diekman. Why can't you remember anyone who remembered our podcast lore better than we did? Jake Diekman in 2023, he had a near 8 ERA for the White Sox and then he got released and the Rays picked him up and we bet how good he would be. And whatever we bet he exceeded even our expectations. And he had a 2.18 ERA with the Rays for the rest of that season in 45 innings with a 3.2 FIP. He was legitimately effective.
- [14:29]
A
Now this is all coming back to me and now I'm. Now I'm remembering it. Jake Diekman seems like a sweetheart. You know, of a person.
- [14:38]
B
He's not pitching anymore. He. He last pitched with the Mets in 2024. No one's taking a chance on Jake Deekman these days. But Craig Kimbrell sure come on down.
- [14:47]
A
Well, maybe he's spending time with his family.
- [14:50]
B
Yeah, well, we'll see if Craig Kimbrell can be the next Jake Diekman. On the edges of our seats to find out. Okay, well, I've got a grab bag of banter that I've brought with me today.
- [15:03]
A
Various bag.
- [15:04]
B
Yeah. Various news, various observations and Craig Kimbrell changing teams. That was not the only transaction news of the weekend. Another was that Chris Taylor retired and then unretired and then re retired in.
- [15:21]
A
Did he re retire?
- [15:23]
B
He retired. He's retired again. If you miss the latest Chris Taylor,
- [15:27]
A
he got hurt or something, right?
- [15:30]
B
He did. Yeah. So Colton Kaiser had walk off homers on back to back days and Chris Taylor almost retired on back to back days. I guess there was one day in between his retirements. So he speed ran. What you sometimes see where someone decides to hang it up and then says, no, I'm not ready. Has second thoughts, comes back for better or worse. And then ultimately retires again for the final time.
- [15:59]
A
For real? Yeah.
- [16:00]
B
Chris Taylor just did all of that over one weekend. Which is the MLB.com headline is after brief reversal Taylor clears up Confusion officially costed a career. So it was like a false start on his post retirement life because he, he announced his retirement or I guess he submitted paperwork for his retirement on Friday.
- [16:24]
A
You have a process that you have to go through.
- [16:26]
B
Yeah. And he, he fractured his left forearm on Wednesday and then evidently mulled over what he wanted to do for a day or two. And on Friday he sent in the paperwork and so people reported that he had retired. And then on Saturday he changed his mind and he came out of retirement and people reported his unretirement. And then on Sunday he posted about his own retirement on Instagram and it begins with clearing up any confusion. I've officially decided to retire from the game I've dedicated my entire life towards. And then he goes on to thank various people. But I love that, I love that there was confusion surrounding Chris Taylor's retirement. I don't know how many people were following Chris Taylor. He's a few years younger than Craig Campbell. He had a lot of life left in him. He's just 35 years old and he
- [17:21]
A
has used the past tense to describe him as if now having retired, he does not have any more life.
- [17:28]
B
Now his life is over. I'm sorry. It was. You lived a good one, Chris Taylor. But, but he, of course, you know, multi time World Series champion and All Star and NLCS MV, quite a distinguished, successful 12 year big league career.
- [17:43]
A
Yeah.
- [17:44]
B
And he was hanging on in the minors this year with the Angels. He was in AAA and yeah, if you can't make the majors with the Angels, I guess that's a sign that it might be time because the Angels if, if you can play infield or I mean Chris Taylor at least nominally can play almost anything.
- [18:03]
A
Right.
- [18:04]
B
The Angels will give you a chance if you were last good in 2019. I mean they're like the team that's likely to sign someone you haven't heard of but remember being good way back when.
- [18:17]
A
Right.
- [18:17]
B
So if Chris Taylor couldn't get a call up with the 2026 Angels, then maybe that's a sign. Maybe that's the game telling you it's time to retire. But there was something relatable about this, I think that he retired and then, you know, he didn't declare backsies and no backsies and. And then he came out of retirement before most people realized he was retired. And Then had third thoughts after his second thoughts. It's a tough decision to make sure you've been doing this for your whole adult life and most of your conscious life.
- [18:51]
A
Yeah.
- [18:51]
B
And then you have to pull the plug on your career, at least your playing career. And I understand having misgivings about that and, and maybe having some second thoughts almost immediately after your first thought. So, you know, usually it's like you retire and then maybe when it's time for spring training the next year, you start feeling that itch and it feels wrong for you to be back home and, and you wonder whether you've still got a little life left in that arm or that bat. And then maybe you're. You're tempted to try it out again. But Chris Taylor, he just, it was very efficient really. He just got that all out of the way and out of his system in one weekend.
- [19:32]
A
I will always think of Chris Taylor as an example of how do I want to put this in a way that's sufficiently generous. It's really important to be able to to self scout your the guys in your org when you are undergoing sort of a change of front office administration. Chris Taylor started as people will. Will maybe remember as a Seattle Mariner. He was a Mariner's 5th rounder out of Virginia and was sort of in this wave of dudes who when Jerry came in, Jerry was like, like excuses where them kids like get these guys out of here. These aren't my guys. I don't care about these guys. And he got dealt to the Dodgers and I think that in his first full season with the Dodgers he had like a 126 WRC plus and he was almost a five win player. And he had this like super versatile defensive fit and he was really, really helpful and productive for them and everyone in Seattle. Sort of like a reverse version of the phenomena we talked about last time. Everyone in Seattle was like but why didn't. Why isn't he just a. And he could have been. And you know who he got traded for? Exactly. You know what Zach Lee did for the Mariners?
- [20:54]
B
Nothing.
- [20:54]
A
He did nothing for them. And that's not Zach Lee's fault. He got hurt. But like this is what happened. So. And Depot has said, in fact I was there when Jerry said it that it was the, the worst deal he'd ever made. I think he said that at like a lookout landing meetup which shocking amount of transparency from Jerry to look out event. He was very versatile. He had a couple of like really strong seasons. He was mostly like a guy Flirting with league average. But he popped, you know, a couple seasons above that. And when he wasn't hurt, which he was increasingly over the, the back part of his career, he was pretty good. Like at his peak with the Dodgers, he had a 116 WRC plus. And did that mean some years where he was in like the high 120s? Yeah, was. Were there years where he was like a 113 guy? Yeah, but like it all kind of averaged out to a really productive player and like you said, kind of move all over the place. He also could have played Joe Flacco in a movie. So you know, what a versatile guy within the last couple years. You know, 93 WRC close 103, 73, 56 last year. Not the best. So it is interesting though, they like to have a version of this guy on their roster. La does they like to have this,
- [22:12]
B
if not several versions.
- [22:13]
A
Right. They like this profile a lot as a way to, you know, what did Boris call it when he was like planting around the bigger plants? Wasn't that one of his strain free agency metaphors? But he was like, you know, complimentary ground cover a lot of the time and sometimes much better than that. So have a career, one that was much better than. Well, certainly than Jerry Depot thought he would have. So that's something.
- [22:38]
B
Yeah. Even at Salt Lake this season he played some second base, center field, left field and right field. So he still had it until he didn't. But very versatile even when it comes to retirement and unretirement announcements. So happy trails. Chris Taylor, assuming you have actually gone firm on this decision now and you are, don't have another unretirement left in you. We will see. Okay. Well, speaking of the Mets and Craig Kimbrell. So they have cast Kimbrell loose, but they are still plagued by ill spirits because they have lost four in a row now. They got swept by the Marlins and they're really, I would venture to say, pretty much done at this point. I know that we're just a third of the way through the season, but they are 22 and 32. Their playoff odds as we record on Tuesday afternoon, 16.5%. Woof. Yeah, that's a long shot. So. So you have to start thinking about divesting, about trading, about offloading. Right. Is this a team that will be open for business, that will be selling as we look ahead to the deadline, whatever they have to sell? There aren't, I guess, that many players who would be that enticing and attractive to teams, perhaps, but you'd have to think that as tough a pill to swallow as it would be for them to say that the season is lost, they are rapidly approaching that point. Right?
- [24:13]
A
It's not good. You know, they're 22 and 32. They're 14 games out of first place. That's shocking. You know, and I know, I know that our listenership can keep in its head the composition of the NL east on any given day. So I am not breaking news. But just as a reminder, that means that they are behind the Nationals and the Marlins in their own divisions. They, they have barely won more games than the Rockies. They have barely won more games than the Angels.
- [24:48]
B
They have the same record as the Giants. They're. They're tied for the second worst record in the National League.
- [24:53]
A
It's pretty grim business. And you know, you, you mentioned like trading but. But, but who, Ben? You know, because they, well, they're not going to be able to move some of their most expensive guys unless they eat a. But like who's taking Marcus Simeon right now? You know, who's out there saying I want, I want to be in that business not only this season but for a couple, a couple years yet? You know, that's, that's the real killer for some of their like least productive players is that they're on multi year deals. Like, I'm not saying he can't turn it around. I think that of all the guys I would want to give a little bit of run to to see how he could. Can course correct if he can. But like who's taking Bobaette, you know, with two player options for next year and the year after, who's doing that? You know, maybe you re, maybe you think that this is just like a very strange and aberrant sort of situation. But that contract has like his AAV is like 42 million a year AAV by the year because you know that required saying, you know how that was necessary to say. But so it's just we talked in the off season about how it is a strange roster in the way that it is shaped and that remains true even as some of the guys who contribute to that strangeness are you know, on the injured list at the moment. But they, you know, they have gotten either under performance out of their guys or their guys are hurt. You know, it's like they finally get something going. It looks like he's playing well and then like Francisco Alvarez tears his meniscus, right? And you know, it's not like his season was going spectacularly, but it Looked like he was maybe gonna kind of feel his way through to something productive. Now he's gonna be out for, like, eight weeks. And I know they're like, oh, it might be sooner than that. What, did he get the scope? He get the scope? He got some lima beans in his knees? No, no, he's got torn stuff in there. This is not a lima bean situation. Whatever size of bean, you can't give it to us in beans. You have to give it to us in torn, stringy things like string cheese. No, I don't. I don't feel comfortable with that. But. So it's just like a weird roster, both in how it was composed and then decomposing. It is going to be very tricky, too, because you're. You're just not going to be able to move some of the most expensive guys unless you take on a lot of money. But then why. Why, if you're on the receiving end of it, like, why are you giving up prospects for Marcus, Simeon, you know, like, what are you doing?
- [27:42]
B
Yeah, I can't imagine Simeon being in much demand, but they have a few guys who are impending free agents who would probably be pretty enticing. Freddie Peralta, of course, I mean, maybe seen as an extension candidate, but I'm sure that there are teams that would want to bring him on for a stretch run. Maybe David Peterson. Everyone has some relievers. You know, AJ Minter is about to be back. Brooks Rayleigh, Clay Holmes, if. If he is able to come back or looks like he will be returning. And Luis Robert was off to a decent start before he got hurt, so.
- [28:20]
A
But he's hurt again.
- [28:21]
B
Yeah, maybe him. But, yeah, there's not a lot unless you want to do something really dramatic, and you're pretty limited in how dramatic you could get, unless you wanted to say, like, if there's some fire underneath the smoke of clubhouse discord and Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor and do they get along and all this stuff. If you wanted to just blow it up or something and rebuild or try to find a taker for Lindor or something if he comes back, but I don't know that that would be advisable, and I'm not sure that they would want to do that. Obviously, they're the Mets. They want to get good again quickly. They thought they were getting good for this year, and so it does look like there are just sort of spare parts. There are some players here and there that could be plucked away by contending teams, but. Yeah, because if you could rewind their off season and do it differently. I don't know what you could even do that would salvage this season. I think obviously if they had made certain moves or not made certain moves, they'd be in better position than they are right now. But even if they had kept the longtime guys that fans were sorry to see go Edwin Diaz and Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo, okay, if you kept all those guys and swapped them in for the replacements, they might be maybe three wins better than they are now. Obviously Diaz got hurt. Alonso is not off to any sort of spectacular start. Neither is McNeil. Nimmo's doing okay. He's certainly doing better than Semyon, but he's not tearing it up or anything. So yeah, you're talking maybe three wins or something there, maybe make it four. If they'd managed to sign Kyle Tucker, who hasn't exactly torn it up himself. He hasn't torn up any body parts, but he hasn't torn it up at the plate either. So even if you swapped him in for Bo Bashette, you're talking three or four wins maybe there. They'd still be pretty lousy, maybe not out of it, but still lackluster and disappointing. So I think a lot of their problem because I know David Stearns, he's been taken a ton of grief from the fans and there have been Fire Stern's chants at Mets games recently and, and he certainly hasn't covered himself in glory. I'm not suggesting that he's got a great track record as Mets pobo. Far from it. But it does seem to me that a lot of the issues are injury related. They've just been really costly and then also getting nothing out of the younger guys whom Stearns inherited who. And you know, I guess he deserves some blame maybe if, if those guys flop for entrusting them with more playing time. But I would have expected a bit more out of the likes of Mark Vientos and Brett Beatty and Carson Benge. It's just. And Alvarez for that matter, who was so good late last season and those guys really had to take a step forward or at least replicate the best of their past performance. And across the boards they've been pretty blah. And then AJ Ewing arrives and starts hot. But mostly the holdovers have either been hurt or just have not progressed really. So I don't know that you could kind of undo a lot of what Stearns did over the off season and find your way to a productive contending Mets team right now. It's just so much has gone south. Even Nolan McLean has gotten lit up his last couple starts. E2 Nolan. So it's just really bad. And it is approaching the point at which maybe you do have to start thinking about next year and get whatever you can that might help you for future contending teams. But yeah, it's tough if you're not getting anything out of the guys that you were kind of counting on to improve.
- [32:20]
A
Yeah, it's. It's tricky. It is an old group, you know, and the ways in which it's young have been sort of faltering of late. Although I think, you know, I don't know that a couple of bad starts has altered my opinion of Nolan McLean as like a frontline starter. But it hasn't been an easy go of it for him lately. You know, he looked bad again over the weekend. I don't know that bringing back any of the guys that they lost this offseason would have put them in any sort of a different spot. And I think that, you know, moving on from McNeil and Nimmo, like, you're not that much worse off. The semian of it all isn't the. Isn't the best.
- [33:04]
B
But I'm.
- [33:05]
A
I'm not moved by Jeff McNeil, Neil. I'm not, you know, and Alonzo hasn't been particularly good. I don't know that their evaluations of the guys who were on their roster at the end of 2025 were wrong. I think that there might have been a sort of miscalibration of the inherent risk of some of the guys they brought in. Some of it is just bad luck. The injury stuff, it is an older group. And so you figure that you're going to maybe lose more time to injury than a young, younger team would. But that doesn't mean that some of this stuff hasn't just been kind of fluky, but they're in a bad way. And I don't think that the reset comes from them trading guys on this roster. I mean, if you can get out from under some of these more expensive contracts, fine. But even the guys on expiring deals, like, how much are they really gonna get for Freddie Peralta? Freddie Peralta has not lit the world on fire. They don't have anyone on their team who's in that sweet spot of having been like, really good and good enough to justify some kind of a prospect haul for a short term rental.
- [34:12]
B
Yeah, if they had more of those guys, they might just be a better team.
- [34:16]
A
They'd just be a better team.
- [34:16]
B
They wouldn't have to trade those guys.
- [34:18]
A
But you're not going to get, you're not going to get multiple top 100 guys for Freddie Peralta at the deadline. He has a 3, 5 ERA and his peripherals are worse than that. So you know, maybe if you have someone who is really enthusiastic about him and thinks that they can kind of of turn back time a little bit. You know, I liked their end of that deal when they made it. I liked it more than the brewers end just because I, you know, have expressed frustration in the past with the brewers moving on from guys a little too quickly when I think that the money piece of it shouldn't dictate quite so much of their roster construction. But I don't know, maybe their self scouting was pretty good because Peralta's been okay and and you know, they at least get young guys, although Sprout hasn't been especially good for them. Anyway, it doesn't matter. I I don't think that they're in a spot where unless there is organic turnaround on the roster as it's currently constituted, they're not getting better at the deadline but they're not going to seek to and I don't know that they can really improve their fortunes for 2027 all that much with deadline deals. They're going to have to get better performance from their young guys. They're going to have to successfully replace the guys on expiring contracts and they're going to have to hope from some kind of turnaround from guys like Simeon where it's just like a black hole but you're going to have to just eat the Boba shot contract now and maybe he's better next year. But it was funny I was watching the Blue Jays and sound like they've had an easy time of their season either.
- [35:46]
B
No.
- [35:47]
A
10 and a half out of first place. They're I think a better both true talent team and a then the Mets and a team more likely to turn things around. Although it was he's going on the aisle. Maybe that's a silly thing to say, but there were a couple of plays where I was watching them where Jimenez just like made a really nice play from shortstop and I was like oh right, it's not BO out there anymore. That's why that's happening that way. So I guess good job Blue Jays bringing Bridgette back.
- [36:11]
B
Yeah, Peralta's ERA has has certainly surged since last season, but that was kind of artificially low I would say say under the hood he's more or less the same guy that he always was in Milwaukee, which was maybe a tad overrated because he was kind of the nominal ace sometimes and he was the stalwart of that rotation, but he was never elite. He was very durable. He's always taken the ball and he's, he's a solid number two ish, whatever that means. So I, I don't think he's dramatically different from what he was when the Mets acquired him, really. But, but yeah, he's not going to bring back an enormous prospect haul for
- [36:51]
A
a few months, but I think that that's right. But he's also just like, he's allowing more hard contact, fewer strikeouts. Yeah, yeah. So like I, I just think that the, the overall profile is down relative to what it was last year and that's not just a matter of the ERA being almost a full run hire, although that's not going to help. But you're right, like there's divergence in the estimators. Like his, his XCRA is pretty similar to what it was before. Like his, his FIP is notably worse. So it's just, you know, he's, again, he's not like, I don't think that Freddie Peralta is suddenly like a pumpkin and unable to p to pitch a baseball, but I don't think he's the kind of guy who, even though you're only getting him for the stretch run, you're like, well, let's go get this ace who can help us secure the playoff spot and then be like a multi series, multime series playoff starter. That's not who Peralta is right now. That might be who he is a month from now. You know, like we still have a little ways and change to go to the deadline since on August 3rd of Monday.
- [37:58]
B
Yeah, I was gonna bring up the Blue Jays because that was one of the questions entering the season. Could they keep up the level of offense that they showed last year and especially in the playoffs that so impressed everyone who hadn't paid as close attention to them during the regular season? And because they pulled off this impressive feat of having a low strikeout rate, high contact rate, but actually hitting the ball pretty hard and hitting for power. And there was a lot of press about how they had done it and the swing training and the changes to swings and coaching and not saying any of that was not true, but because a lot of those players overperformed, there was some question about whether they could keep it up this year. And thus far the answer appears to be no, not at all because they had a 112 WRC plus last year that was the fourth best in baseball. And so far this year they're down to 25th with a 92 WRC plus. And a lot of those guys who were better have been worse and regression has hit them hard and they've mostly kept the contact. So they're, they're still a good contact hitting team. Last year they had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball during the regular season, 17.8%. This year, second lowest strikeout rate. Only the Rays have had a lower strikeout rate. So The Blue Jays 19.2 so K Rate A tad higher, but still one of the lowest in baseball. It's just that they're not hitting for power anymore and, and they were pulling off the neat trick of doing both of those things at once, which is basically a perfectly constructed offense if you can make a lot of contact and, and hit the ball hard. And they weren't the biggest sluggers, but they were a credible power threat. And they were 13th in homers, they were 12th in isolated power. And this year they're well the, the home runs, their 21st isolated power, their 27th. If you look at just the quality of contact. Last year they were just in terms of barrels per batted ball event, they were 17th. This year they're 28th. Last year in hard hit rate, they were 11th. This year they are scrolling down, scrolling down 27th in that metric too.
- [40:31]
A
So they're still scrolling. Should have given it away.
- [40:34]
B
I know they're still making decent contacts, but that capacity to make contact and also, also make good solid contact has kind of gone away. And, and I was thinking about this in relation to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Who I don't know if you can say as goes Vlad, so goes the Blue Jays offense, but he's obviously a big part of powering it and he has not done much in the power department this year. And he continues to be just one of the most compelling but mercurial hitters in baseball. As high a ceiling as anyone, but also almost as high a ground ball rate as anyone. So he sat on Monday because he got hit by a pitch on the elbow on Sunday and they gave him a rest. X rays came back negative. Doesn't seem to be serious, but he's now at a 119WRC plus and maybe the quality of contact is a bit better than that. But again, he just, he perennially has a pretty high ground ball rate and this year it's 48 something percent which is higher than last year's. And it just never seems like he can quite keep the swing the way you'd want in terms of just elevating and pulling the ball. He just does not hit a lot of those pulled fly balls that are kind of the coin of the realm that everyone wants in Major League Baseball these days. And. And so he's been, you know, somewhat productive. Like, he's. He's walking. He has a career high walk rate. I know walks have been up a bit league wide, but still, that's nice. His strikeout rate is lower than ever. He's walked more than he struck out.
- [42:16]
A
That.
- [42:16]
B
That's all good. He's got a.386 on base. Like, that's good. He's hitting for a fairly high average in this era, but he's slugging 3.72with a.287 batting average. He has an 85 isolated power. He's hit three dingers, and this is just not the guy they need him to be. And. And they signed him to be the Big Bopper who's been a. A 5 and 6 war player and who is just such a fearsome force in October last year. And that alone just the way that he propelled them to right within one win of a world championship. I've just hero status forever, just. Just for that playoff run. But I don't know, it's just. It's so hard to figure him out because he still hits the ball pretty hard, but he just has a fairly level swing and just never really seems to consistently tap into that light tower power that, you know, he has that he has shown at times in the past. And in 2021, for a full season, when he hit 48 bombs, like, you know, that's in there somewhere. But he just can't seem to channel that year after year, game after game.
- [43:31]
A
Yeah, I don't have much of an explanation for it. If I did, I'd probably be working for the Blue Jays. If I could figure out Vladi, I think they'd be like, hey, come help us. I mean, part of it, and it's like, it's not gonna help that he got dinged on the elbow over the weekend. Although, thankfully, that seems like. Like it was a pretty, you know, innocuous thing. I think it'll be okay. He's a streaky hitter. This happens with him where he'll have stretches where he's kind of underwhelming. But, yeah, I don't think, you know, last year it was like, okay, you're not necessarily getting the 164 version of Laddie.
- [44:08]
B
Yeah.
- [44:09]
A
But a 137 WRC plus and then his postseason run, you'll take that any day of the week. But I. I think they were. I'm sure hoping that that would be sort of the baseline. And this looks a lot more like his 2023 season, which was frustrating for fans and certainly for him and for the org. So I don't know how to explain the power outage, though. And it's a dramatic enough dip that you're like, is he hurt? You know, like, is there. I understand that there. There are the parts of his swing that we've just always sort of been surprised. Didn't work better. Right. Given what we saw of him as a prospect, sort of what the potential is there, the way he's able to generate power when he connects. It's like, can you just elevate a little bit, bud? Can you just elevate? Now, the last time he. The this season where he had his highest average launch angle was exactly like this one. So sort that out for me, Ben. You know, like, his best launch angle year was 2023. Kind of like underwhelming.
- [45:16]
B
Yeah, he. He has 94th percentile bat speed as judged by baseball savant this year, which is basically where it was last year. But he is not hitting the ball as hard as he did last year. And yeah, he just does not consistently hit it up or to the poolside. So it's tough because there's definitely more potential there. And I don't want to downplay. He's had a heck of a career already. He's sure he's 27 years old, and, you know, obviously he started young, but that was a testament to his talent. And he's already at 21.4 career WAR at FanGraphs. He's had big moments, home run derbies, all star games, playoff horror heroics, all the rest. But yeah, it's just when he's good, he is so good, and he just looks like you can't possibly beat him. Like, I understand that everyone goes on a heater, and Ernie Clement looked amazing in the playoffs last year, too. But when Vlad is. Is on point, it's just like you can't get anything by him. And he hits everything hard, and I just. I want to see that more consistently because even though he has made himself into a credible defender and everything, and he's worked on the physicality, it's. It's just overall, the bat is still going to be his carrying tool, obviously, so he has to hit to be a star and he's barely out hit Ernie Clement during this regular season. So yeah, yeah, you'd like him to be a bit better and I imagine that he will be over the rest of this season.
- [46:52]
A
Sure.
- [46:52]
B
But still, yeah, it would be nice if he could just consistently be that 160something WRC guy instead of of some years being the 160something, some years being the 130something, some years being the 1 17, 119, 110 kind of guy. It's just, it's hard to pinpoint exactly who he's going to be in any given season.
- [47:15]
A
Right. There's a lot of vacillation and you know that's true of that's true of a lot of guys. But you know, it's when you're supposed to be the dude, it is a little upsetting. Do you think that Ernie Clement sits there in the dugout and encourages Letty to hit that because he looks like Dominic Monahan?
- [47:37]
B
There is a resemblance there.
- [47:38]
A
It's shocking. It is. That might be him, you know, do we know? Have we ever seen them in the same place? It is funny for us to spend this much time talking about the relative underperformance of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. When like their biggest problem right now is arguably the fact that they have an entire rotation on the injured like list. Like that might be, yes, contributing somewhat to their struggles.
- [48:01]
B
The lineup is not the lone issue. But yeah, but it was such a a strength for them at times last year and something of a mystery heading into this year. And so far that mystery has been resolved. Not in Toronto fans favor. So I was just thinking when you mentioned that the Mets were barely better than the Rockies and the dregs of the majors that it is kind of a refreshing change that the worst teams this season are not nearly as bad as they've been for the past few years because we were all getting semi excited about the Rockies renaissance early this season and it's best not to look too closely at how the Rockies have played lately. It hasn't been the best. After their almost.500 April, they've been 6 and 17 to start May. So they're playing more like the Rockies of old lately. But that respectable April record counts. It's just that for the past few years we've kind of gotten used to the idea that the most terrible team or teams going to challenge all time records for futility and that just has not been the case fortunately this season. Because in 2023 three we had the A's who went 50 and 1 12. So that's a.309 winning percentage. And at points they seem to be on pace for, oh, this could be the worst team ever. 20, 24, you had the White Sox, who went 41 and 1 21. They did set a record for losses. That's a 2:53 winning percentage. And then last year you had the rockies who merely finished 43 and 119. That's a.265 winning percentage, but probably were worse than the preceding seasons. White Sox had been and had historically terrible run differentials and everything. And so this year the terrible teams are just run of the mill bad baseball teams. They're just not really remarkable. And there's time maybe for the Rockies to swoon so much that they end up in truly terrible territory. But they're 20 and 35 as we speak. That's a.364 winning percentage. The Angels are 20 and 34. This is normal, non historic territory for the worst teams in baseball. And we had three years running there where it was just like, huh. I guess the new normal is that the worst teams are like some of the worst teams that we've ever seen. And, and now not that. So we've talked an awful lot about how there aren't a lot of great teams and everyone's kind of in the middle and the American League is super mediocre and everything. And that's all true, but also I think sort of a saving grace. Now it was interesting for neutral observers to have these teams that were challenging all time, terrible team records. It frankly, it was in a rubber necking sense. I would tune in to see, I'd check the box scores, I'd be like, did the Rockies lose? Did the White Sox lose, lose? What are they on pace for now? And I'm sorry to say that that comes at the expense of their fans. But hopefully their fans were averting their own cases. And so this year we don't have that, we don't have that storyline to follow. But that's probably for the best for baseball that it's, it's not a negative reflection that some, some team is so far from being even a credible threat that they're just unwatchably bad. So these Rockies, they're still not good. And changing your pitch selection without a change in personnel can only get you so far. And some of their bullpen arms who have been surprisingly successful, maybe they will be moved because this is the new Rockies. These are the Rockies, a regime that might actually trade some relievers at the deadline instead of deciding to double down and extend them sometimes. So we might see them subtract from this roster and they might get even worse. But that's kind of refreshing. I think we were overdue for a season where the nadir of, of the standings was a little bit better and sunnier than it has been in recent years.
- [52:15]
A
Well, and I, I know that this is if you're a fan of one of these teams, like the, the fact that you are watching increasingly like respectable bas baseball, increasingly watchable baseball is the primary reward. And I don't want to put everything in terms of potential labor strife a couple of months from now, but I do think that the odds of there being productive conversations that result in a new CBA without a loss of games go up if the sport is in a position where it is viewed as thriving and, and robust and not something you want to mess with. And one of the things that can contribute to that sense is when you avoid having like these really terrible teams. Not that, you know, owners won't ask for what they're going to ask for. And we know that the things they ask for can bear little resemblance to reality if they put their minds to it. But it's a lot harder to make a case about like the big scary Dodgers and the threat, threat of competitive imbalance if you don't have a club that's setting like historic lost records. So really the White Sox and the Rockies are just doing their part on behalf of their brethren. You know, this is a pro labor stance that they're taking. Being good.
- [53:33]
B
Yes. Good job Mets. For, for tanking the narrative that spending a lot on your baseball team leads to success. It's, it's true. Now if the Dodgers get things together for the playoffs and, and they three Pennsylvania compete, then all the rest will be irrelevant and that's all we will ever hear about. But it is true that thus far at least, there's not a very strong correlation between spending and winning. And you could kind of look at the top and bottom of the standings and it's almost indiscernible. Which, which is the, you know, top spending teams and, and which is the bottom because it's all just a jumble at this stage. Stage. Okay, so a few other things here. One, I just, I have to follow up on the first impressions that hitters have made this season because we, we remarked on this early in the year when everyone was making their first impressions and we saw Kevin McGonagall and Justin Crawford and JJ Weatherholt and Munetaka, Murakami and Carson Benj and Chase the Lotter, all of these, these ballyhood prospects and, and Debutantes just had huge games to begin with and, and there were some historic stats that we shared at the time but that really has kind of continued leaguewide. And we got an email from Patreon supporter Preston who just brought our attention to the overall league wide debutant performance and, and compiled all the numbers and sent the stats of the 42 hitters who have made their major league debuts so far this season. And it is almost unbelievable. So again, 42 guys, 132 plate appearances. Just talking about their, their break in games, their first games in the big leagues. If you compile all the stats that they produced in those games, they are collectively batting. Batting 352. 455, 685. That's an 1140 OPS. And that takes us up through the most recent batter debutante who debuted on Monday, Riku Nishida for the White Sox. And he went 1 for 3 with a single that wasn't anything spectacular. Although you know, cool for, for him to debut. And he did, did make some history in that debut in the sense that he is the first player to have been born and raised in Japan and play D1 college baseball and then reach MLB. So it's a unique trajectory that he has taken to the big leagues. But the actual debut game, he got a hit, but it was not spectacular. But this has continued. We've seen seen some other excellent strong debuts in recent days and weeks. Brian Torres and Gabriel Gonzalez and Henry Bolte and AJ Ewing whom I mentioned and Ryan Waldschmidt whom I've mentioned. These guys have continued to really rake in their first games. And yes, that handful of guys who came out of the gate so strong, that's still, still helping. That's still sort of skewing these stats somewhat. And for these guys to collectively have been this good, this deep into the season, it's incredible and it's kind of unprecedented. So Preston wanted to know if this was what's the latest in the season that the slash line of players making their debut has led the league or you know, using the minimum number of plate appearances made by the debutantes. Basically, if you put all the debutantes together, are they the best batter in the league compared to other qualified batters? And this really has never happened before because they have collectively been better than the best qualified batter this season who I guess would be who's leading the league in OPS it's Yordon Alvarez, of course. So he has a 1021 OPS and the debutante batters are more than 100 points of OPS better than Yordon. And usually debutante batters are bad. Yeah, and, and I had Michael Mountain look into this. He helped me out with some research here. And over a full season, the collective debutante ops plus, just, just the debutante ops over the league ops, it's usually between 70 and 85. So the debutantes, the rookies, you know, making their major league debuts in their very first game, usually about 70 to 85% as productive as an average batter. And there has never been a season when the debutant had even a 100 ops plus when, when they were league average batters. So in the integration era, we have 1977 and 2022, they were 99 point something OPS plus, and that was in 209 PA in 1977 and 450 in 2022. So at best, the Debutantes have come close to league average over a full season. And so far this year, we're at a 162 OPS plus collectively for the Debutantes, it's just, it's nuts. Like the latest day of the year Michael could find where the debutantes had a collective 161 OPS plus or better in any prior season was April 16, 1960. And that was the fifth day of the season because season started later then and only three batters had debuted to that point. Ken Walters, Tony Gonzalez and Tony Kirk. And those three collectively hit 444. 444. 778. On April 12th in the same game, no less, a Phillies versus Reds game. And that was good for a 1222 debutante OPS. The league average was 7 12. And then the next day, three new rookies, Neil Wilson, Lou Johnson and Chris Cannizzaro, batted in their major league debuts and had one single in 11 play appearances. And that was that. And then suddenly the combined debutante season line was down to 250-250-400. So this is just wild for these guys to have been this good so far.
- [60:10]
A
Yeah.
- [60:11]
B
And you can find some recent seasons where they were, say, better than the league average this late or later. Even like in 2022, even in mid September, the Debutantes were a little bit better than the League average. In 2023, they were just a little bit better almost to the All Star break. So it's happened to July to June in 2015, 2011, about half of the last 15 seasons debutantes have been league average or better through at least this point. So that's one thing. But to be better collectively than the best hitter in baseball. Right. This, this has just never happened. And I don't know what it means, if anything, anything. But these guys are just, they're showing out in their first big league games and it's just, it's been a lot of fun to see it happen. I don't, I don't know that it could possibly continue or that it signifies anything, but it signifies that it's been fun to get hyped for these highly anticipated players to debut and suddenly they're immediately leave living up to the building.
- [61:18]
A
Well, and it's interesting too because, and some of this, I don't want to like give a misimpression here. Like some of it is, you know, just the, the pace at which good prospects are being promoted. But I do think that there's an overall sense, if you talk to public facing prospect evaluators that like, we've had a couple of years of shallowness in the minors. Yeah. Now the top of that group is guys, guys like Connor Griffin who are getting 70 at fan graphs. Right. So there is a concentration of very highly regarded prospect talent at the top. And some of the top 100 guys who have come up have been among the guys who have been producing and, and doing so well. But it is interesting that at a moment when it feels like, you know, we, we are like, put it this way, maybe you're a pro, a publication that says your top 100 could be as long as it needs to be. You know, what, what is 100 but an arbitrary number? Just rank all the 50 and above guys. You know, we're not ranking 120 anymore. Now some of that is a refinement of the process and sort of dialing in with, I think, greater accuracy, like who is truly worthy of that future value ranking. But it is not. You know, this, this wasn't like, I hate to use the farming analogy, but since we call them farm systems, this wasn't, wasn't like necessarily a bumper crop. It was a very good at the top crop. So it's just an interesting thing to have sitting next to the fact that sort of the overall state of the miners is kind of down, but the guys who were thought to be really good are the ones producing. So maybe it's not interesting at all, Ben, but maybe it is, you know.
- [62:56]
B
Yeah, yeah. I don't know.
- [62:58]
A
So I don't know.
- [63:00]
B
There's, there's gonna be regression, obviously. You have some extreme performance like this and it's been coming down since that wild first week or two. And even on an individual level, remember Jose Fernandez debuted for the Diamondbacks and he hit two home runs in his first game and there was a stat about how there had already been more debut multi homer games than in any previous full season. Well, he hit two homers in his first game. He has three now total and an 85 WRC plus. So yeah, not everyone's going to sustain that. And maybe you would expect that the quality of the Debutantes would decline a bit as the season goes on because maybe the most highly touted prospects would tend to be brought up early in the year. But yeah, even to persist to this point, I, I just, I don't think it really means that much. I think it's a strong class of prospects and Debutantes, but not so much better than any previous season that it's just like, yeah, these guys are just miles better than any crop of players that's debuted in any previous season. Or I don't know, everyone just didn't study the scouting reports this season for some reason or what. But so it's probably just chance. But also it's incredibly cool and fun and the fact that it's been this striking and that it's persisted this long, long, I think just bears repeated mentions. And so I am repeating my mention of it and updating it and we can maybe see where the dust settles and what it looks like at the end of the year. But yeah, it's one of my favorite storylines of this season. The the rookie batters collectively have now dropped below average. They're 99 WRC plus for all rookie batters. But the Debutantes, boy, they are setting the bar high. And and speaking of new arrivals, also the A's are promoting Gage Jump, one of their top prospects, a lefty pitcher who's been faring quite well in aaa. And so they are promoting him to offer some pitching help. And Gage Jump is a member of the 2024 draft class, which has been been getting some big buzz lately. He is a second rounder from the 2024 draft, but he's just 23, just turned 23 last month and he is, I believe, or will be the 15th member of that draft class to make his major league debut. And when Jeff Passon tweeted about Gage Jump's promotion, he he invoked the 2024 draft class. He said he was part of what's shaping up to be a very interesting draft class in 2024. And I wanted to see how that 2024 class is shaping up relative to past drafts at this sort of early stage, because we're not even two years past that draft. But it's been a ton of talent that debuted that year and has already made an impact. Right. So we're tough talk. And Nick Kurtz would be the big headliner. But then you've got Chase Burns, who's been fantastic this season. J.J. weatherholt, Cam Smith, another Blue Jays playoff hero, Treya Savage, Connor Griffin, of course, Travis Pizana, Ryan, Walt Schmidt, whom I just mentioned, Carson Benj, Christian Moore, Jack Caglion, who else has debuted from this draft class? Gage Jump is about to Payton Toy, Ryan Johnson, perhaps prematurely and not so successfully for the Angels.
- [66:47]
A
Not his fault.
- [66:48]
B
Yeah, talked about him last time. And then don't forget the fifth rounder Sam Antonacci, who's done well for the White Sox this year. So that's a, a class of 15 guys or it will be 15 when jump makes that official. And so I wanted to see how this stacked up up to previous draft classes two years after the draft. And I asked Dan Hirsch at Baseball Reference to send me some info on this and he did and I will share the spreadsheet and he has it broken down because there used to be multiple drafts and there was a June draft and a January draft and regular draft and secondary draft and all the rest. But if we just look for year N plus 2, basically. So compare how the 2024 draft class did through 2026 and the 2023 draft class through 2025 and the 2022 draft class through 2024 all the way back to the first draft in 1965. We've confined the number to beat here. So 2024 is at 14 players who've debuted thus far and 19.9 WAR. And Dan also sent the positive WAR because there are a couple guys with negative WAR, namely Rian Johnson and Jack Caglion. So you could still count it as an achievement that they made it even though they've been sub replacement level. And so you could look at positive WAR only if you'd like. But 19.9 War is already the 12th best total for a draft class through two years after that. And we still still have two thirds of this season left. And one would imagine that there will be a bunch more guys who get promoted and everyone will be compiling more war. But the number to beat is actually the 2023 draft. So we're all talking about the 2024 draft class which is pretty impressive. But the 2023 draft class through 2025 graduated 29 major leaguers with a war total of 42.3 and a positive war total of 44.7. So that's more than double the number of big leaguers and war that we've seen from the 2024 draftees so far in the big leagues. So that 2023 draft class, that was special because you had Paul Skeens the headliner and then you had Wyatt Langford and Matt Shaw, Jacob Wilson, Nolan Shan, Luke Kishel, Kyle Teal, Rhett Louder, Nolan McLean, Ben Williamson. Skin's doing a lot of work there obviously. But that was the record over the 1985 draft class which graduated 36 big leaguers. And that was with fewer teams back then though, I guess more draft rounds and 37.1 war 41, 1.4 positive were and that was Barry Bonds, Will Clark, Bobby Thigpen, Bruce Refn, Joe McGrain, Pete Incavilia, Barry Larkin, BJ Sirhoff, Willie Fraser, Bobby Witt, senior. And then There was the 89 class with Frank Thomas and Scott Erickson, Jeff Bagwell, John Olrood, the 2010 class with Chris Sale, Bryce Harper, Angelton Simmons, Yasmani Grandal, etc. So well, there have been better classes, but we'll see where this 2024 class ends up. And you're right, teams are promoting prospects faster these days and also there are fewer draft classes for better better or worse? Worse in a lot of ways. But I guess the guys who do get drafted, their teams are believers in them. So. So yeah, I will be curious to see where this 2024 class ends up by the end of 2026. Powered by gauge jump and other prospect debutantes to come. So some more 2024 guys will probably come along and add to these totals and then they will also affect the previous research about the debutante batting lines in their debut games. So we'll see if they they can keep up that standard. But I don't know if it's meaningful at all that 2023 and then 2024, both seemingly quite strong classes, maybe they just happen to be good years for draft eligible players or who knows, maybe teams are getting better at drafting, I don't know.
- [71:31]
A
And, and some of it I think is that and this isn't going to be true of all these guys because you know, not every single guy who who is coming out of these classes is a college draftee. But I do think that like the the college avenue as a route to actual player Development is much stronger than it used to be. I think, particularly on the pitching side. A lot of these guys are getting pro quality or close to it, instruction at the college level. And so they are arriving both better and more fully formed as prosperity aspects. A thing that is, I'm sure, delighting Major League Baseball that in some quarters would like to reduce the size of the majors further and shunt more development to that route. Just change some of the eligibility rules around high school draftees and whether there will be any. So some of it is that I'm sure some of it is like the idiosyncratic whatever of this particular draft. Some of it might be. We are seeing the effects of. Of not just college as a development pipeline, but for better or worse, more concentrated and targeted instruction and development further down the amateur ranks. Right. Guys who are. Who are specializing and doing so very early, playing an absurd amount of travel ball.
- [72:50]
B
Yeah.
- [72:50]
A
And it's not like that's a new industry, but it's not like the only people who are thinking about development are pro organizations. You know, there's an entire cottage, and it's not even a cottage industry anymore that's sort of trying to help your. Your special little guy get better and better. And so I, I think that, like, you're seeing sort of all of those things coalesce together where younger players are just more major league ready sooner than they used to be and I think are sort of better in general. And again, some of it is sort of like an idiosyncratic distribution of talent that is specific to this draft class. And we will see if. If other classes are able to sort of sustain. But, yeah, it's a very talented group.
- [73:35]
B
Yeah. I hope Gage is good. You might not as a Mariners fan, but he's good.
- [73:41]
A
I mean, he's first of all, incredible name. Just like.
- [73:45]
B
Oh, yes.
- [73:45]
A
And. And Ben, I know you didn't spend much of your weekend watching conference tournaments. Tournaments, but I did. There are some names out here, man. There are some names.
- [73:59]
B
Yeah. It would be great if Gage Jump could be good, though. Not only because his name is delightful, but because I really do find myself getting behind this A's effort. And I know that if they were to win the division, that would come at the expense of Meg's Mariners. But I really was kind of invested in the. The A's and the Pirates entering this year because I saw them as sort of similar in that. Well, I wrote an article about the two of them at the end of March and I called them MLB's lopsided dark horses. And I suggested that maybe they were the best bets to be teams that had been out of the playoffs for a while and might make their way back in. But they both seemed to be constructed with a particular strength and a particular weakness, and they seemed complimentary century in that the Pirates projected to be good at pitching and not so good at hitting, and the A's projected to be good at hitting and not so good at pitching. And to this point they've had almost the same level of success, at least records wise. They had, I think the same record heading into Monday and then now they're separated just by a bit because the A is lost to the Mariners and now they're 27 and 27 and the Pirates are 28 and 26. And hilariously the A's are in first place in the AL west and the Pirates with a better record are in last place in the NL Central where everyone's a winner. So that is weird, but they have both been pretty darn decent and, and fun to watch and fun to follow and their playoff odds are a whole heck of a lot better than the Mets, that's for sure. Although neither of them has quite reached the 5050 point or they're not there as we speak. But it has been somewhat surprising that they've made it work this well, particularly the Pirates who the pitching has been good as we have discussed and you know, they have had good health and, and this sort of all homegrown rotation has been pretty productive. And overall they are eighth in pitching WAR, which is solid. But the surprise is that they are also 8th in non pitching war. So I thought they were lopsided and in fact they've been basically perfectly balanced to this point. So they've gotten good production out of their lineup and this might be enough or it could be, would be if not for this weird crowded and NL wild card playoff picture. But as for the A's, they are 12th in non pitcher war, which is not bad, but they are 26th in pitcher war. So they've kind of been as advertised where you know, the hitting has not been overpowering, it certainly could be better, but it has been their relative strength and the pitching has really let them down as expected. And so anything they could do to bolster that staff and, and even out that imbalance would be a big help. I'm not expecting that they could hold off the Mariners, but a playoff spot is certainly not out of the question and any, any pitching would help whether it's gauge jump or otherwise. But yeah, I'VE been really riveted by these two teams and how they seem to be sort of parallel in a lot of ways. And, and that has continued except for the Pirates its over performance on offense.
- [77:33]
A
Yeah, it's like can you Voltron them together? Still would be appealing I mean because you're right like outperforming in some respects. But if you could pick the best bits. Look, I do, I want as a fan. I'd like the Mariners to do well as a fan. A friend of the Podburn Rooker. I'm fine with the A's being a good and productive team. It's such a weird organization to try to get your arms to around in terms of how you feel about it. Because I want good things for A's fans such as they remain and I want good things for A's players. They didn't. I mean even the guys who have signed extensions there, it's like they're not responsible for the behavior of their owner. Right. And I do want there to be. I want every club in Major League Baseball to be able to make a compelling case to a fan base to root for them because that, that's the whole, that's the whole thing, you know. And now, you know, with shovels in the ground and whatnot, I guess we're, we're in it to win it in terms of this particular franchise getting, getting to Vegas. So I think that them being in a playoff position would be super exciting and very fun. They have a lot of really dynamic young players, guys who they have chosen to keep in the. With money for a while, which is I think what we would like them to be doing. They have some veterans who we're all very fond of. They have, you know, they have an interesting farm system and it's starting to be able to like supplement the big league club in ways that they really need. And you know, we haven't even seen the best of their prospects at the big league level yet, you know, so there is certainly more to come come and more good to come when as it pertains to, to these guys because like we haven't seen the freeze yet and they have Kate Morris and they have Jamie Arnold. Look at our opinion. I'm gonna mumble about it because it's like don't, don't worry about it, Ben. You know, like, like don't, don't worry about the fact that Kate Morris says ERA is close to five or the. Jamie Arnold is four and a half. Don't worry about it.
- [79:47]
B
You know, I wasn't don't worry about me worrying about it.
- [79:51]
A
But I think that they are an interesting and dynamic club and if it continues to come with investment from ownership, well, I guess the, maybe the most honest way to describe it is them making the best of a bad situation because like the sin that they will never be able to fully cleanse themselves of as an organization, which again is not the responsibility or fault of the players, is the abandonment of Oakland. Right. And that's something that like has to be, I think a present day part of their story, even as Oakland itself, like both figuratively and eventually literally recedes from view for them because we need to be able to like grapple with that part of ownership malfeasance and avarice. And they are the most, most dramatic example. Even with nutting being the way that he is like they were. I still remember what it sort of felt like as a non ace fan to watch that final game and the, the collective grief of that place. So I don't want to, you know, I don't want to pretend that that didn't happen or that that's not part of even their present day story because it is because they're still playing in a minor league ballpark, like, and part of me, part of me wants to them to make the playoffs because I do think that for its part in that whole disaster that the league should have to bear the embarrassment of that ballpark hosting playoff games and because what will they do? What will. They're not going to not play them there? What, are they going to go down to San Francisco and play at Oracle? No, they're going to have to play at Sutter Health Field, right? Yeah, so I guess so. So there's all of that. But in terms of the, the actual big league club as it's constituted, like, I think that this is a really fun and exciting group and it's been really cool to see, you know, the, the sort of instant sensations that they've had. The guys who have managed to kind of come along and really advance their game in a slow and steady sort of way. I think all of that is pretty, is pretty cool. And so I hope that it continues to go well and that Gage makes a successful jump.
- [82:03]
B
Yep.
- [82:04]
A
To the majors. It's a wild name to trust me with. Like, what are they doing? You know, on some level, what are they doing? What are they doing with any of us? Like gauge jump?
- [82:13]
B
The temptation is too strong.
- [82:14]
A
Do you know any other jumps? Have you ever known someone with the last name Jump?
- [82:18]
B
I have not, no, not personally.
- [82:21]
A
Did you, did you see me blue sky over the weekend about Folger, Bowen, Boaz. I bet you didn't know his last. Boaz. Ben. It's not Bose. It's not Boaz. Folger. Boaz.
- [82:34]
B
Wow. I will keep that in mind.
- [82:36]
A
You should keep it in mind.
- [82:39]
B
Yeah.
- [82:40]
A
Boaz. Boaz.
- [82:44]
B
Folger. Boaz. The best part of waking up. All right.
- [82:47]
A
I mean it wasn't the best part of that game for unc but that's a, that's a separate conversation. Folger.
- [82:53]
B
Yeah.
- [82:54]
A
Boaz.
- [82:55]
B
Speaking of imbalance, o' Neil Cruz just, just wanted to mention because we haven't talked about him much this season but he's continues to be about as imbalanced as it's possible to be. He is just about on pace for a 3050 season and still it's like is he good? I guess he's kind of good. He's okay. Okay. But it just continues to be just the weirdest, most extreme profile in the majors and continues to be a stat cast hero. Just 100th percentile hard hit rate 100th percentile exit speed 99th percentile bat speed hundredth percentile arm strength 77th percentile sprint speed. Wow, he's really l ly gagging this year by on crew standards. But, but first percentile strikeout rate, second percentile whiff rate. He is on pace for 252 strikeouts which would shatter the Mark Reynolds single season records. So it's really something. He has on the whole been better and more productive than he was last year. Certainly he is. He's playable even if the defense can be sort of unsightly sometimes. But boy, almost 36% strikeout rate and yet the power speed combo is enticing. The highlights are riveting. Just what a weird player. I'm glad he exists. If he ever puts it all together some season then it might be a inspiring. But I almost wish he doesn't. I almost wish he continues to be this odd amalgamation of amazing and incompetent.
- [84:37]
A
It's such a wild thing. What if he shows up to spring training next year? He's just, just like a plus center fielder all of a sudden you lose your. You would lose what remains of your. Of your mind. I would lose what remains mine.
- [84:48]
B
Like that would really help. You wouldn't worry so much about the strikeouts.
- [84:52]
A
It would really help if he could play good center field. It would really help if he could play an average center field. It's still not good out there in my opinion. It's funny to think of him being imbalanced because it's like, oh, he's so tall. If he falls, that's going to hurt. You know, that's a hippie, hippie o' Neal crazy cruise disaster.
- [85:10]
B
But he is incredibly coordinated, so he probably won't tip over too often. Although. Well, there are times in center fields where it might look otherwise.
- [85:20]
A
One time I was sitting at my desk and I just like fell out of my chair. I didn't. Like, I just fell out of my chair. I think I've told this story on the pod before. Sometimes I feel that way when I'm watching o' Neill Cruz play center field. I'm like, what's going on out there, buddy? It's not always bad. To be clear, there are times when it's fine and he is so fast and he's got that big arm, but there are times where you're just like, wow, first time.
- [85:43]
B
Yeah. Sometimes when a team exceeds expectations, it. It is health. Obviously, health hurts some teams, like the Mets. Health helps other teams. And I was thinking about this in the context of the Pirates because of course they had some guys who were hurt before the season season started, Jared Jones for instance. But they haven't really had starting pitcher injuries since the season started. The guys they actually started the season with. And so that has played a part in their having, I think the fifth best starting pitcher war in baseball. Now they just have talent and they have stuff. They have the highest average 4 seamer speed among starting pitchers. Jacob Misrowski be damned, he's the brewers are second. Second. He just spams fastballs these days. But nonetheless, the Pirates are at the top of that particular leaderboard. But there are some other teams that have benefited in that department too, and teams that have also outplayed expectations. The Cardinals and the Guardians have barely had anyone miss a start this year. They've pretty much just had their regular rotation all season with maybe an occasional bullpen game or open opener mixed in there. But, but basically they don't have the strongest starting staffs, but they haven't had to dip into their sixth and seventh and eighth string arms either. And so that really helps. And, and this was true of the Cardinals last year. And the Cardinals were not good last year and it's not as if their starting rotation has been particularly good either. So it's, you know, it only helps so much. I think they're 26th in starting pitcher war this year and the Guardians are kind of middle of the pack. And even last year The Cardinals were 25th in starting pitcher WAR. So sort of the same deal where it's just like they have a bunch of guys who don't get hurt and they just keep running them out there. And that is good because you don't have to use the guys who are way down, down your depth chart. But at least in their case, the top options are also not good either. So it would be really bad if they had to then dip into even more inferior options. Although I guess the, the decline from the first stringers to the seven stringers wouldn't be really that drastic in their case. But sometimes that's kind of one of the things when you look at how is this team doing? Well, it doesn't seem like they should be the this good. Often it's a timing, sequencing, clutch kind of thing. And you look at oh, are they hitting well in high leverage spots or pitching well in high leverage spots or runners in scoring position. And then the other thing that's sort of a, a silent difference maker. Defense can be one sometimes even now. But also health if it's just, it's like evidence of absence. It's, it's kind of like, well, if, if someone hasn't been hurt, you don't even really notice. You tend to notice when guys do get hurt, but when they don't, you kind of take that for granted. It's like, well, yeah, this is the status quo. These are the guys we have. And you don't really realize that you've been somewhat fortunate. So I've always, I've wanted that to work out for a team like the Cardinals because I want it to be a viable model, a way to succeed where you just stockpile soft tossers or command guys, pitchers who have lower injury risk risk, and you just say, well, they're not going to be elite individually, but collectively if they're all durable, then this will work out because you'll have other teams, the Dodgers or whoever else, and they'll have all these top end arms, but then half of them will get hurt at any particular time.
- [89:23]
A
Right?
- [89:23]
B
In the Dodgers case, they have like 10 guys anyway, so it doesn't hurt them that much. But yeah, I wish that were a viable path where it's like some teams, well, we just want the stuff and throw harder, harder, harder. And then other teams would say no, we're, it's a undervalued commodity as the lower injury risk guy who doesn't have the dazzling stuff. And I don't know, it has helped the, the Cardinals this year. It's helped the guardians. But on the whole, I guess you can't really say that. Yeah, the, the competitive advantage, the market inefficiency is to get the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff. They. They always take the balls and they don't really do anything particularly impressive with it. But. But I wish. I wish that worked better.
- [90:07]
A
Well, and it depends on the time of year that you're talking about too. Right. Because that might be a viable strategy in May, it might be a viable strategy in September, but who's throwing innings for you in October? You know what I mean? Like, yeah, you need bulk at times in the postseason. It's not like you don't have the innings, but you need. You need dudes. You know, you need. You need at least a couple of dudes most of the time. Because the dudes for the other teams who maybe have missed time throughout the year because of injury. Well, as long as they're healthy enough, they can be dudes and they can be dudes multiple times in a series. And you don't have to worry about the. The guys who got you there. From a bulk perspective, the best of those are going to get moved to the bullpen, and the rest of them, you leave off your roster anyhow. So it's a fine or it can be a fine regular season strategy, but from a pitching perspective, I think it gets dicier. 1, 1 Postseason play rolls around because you're right. You need a.
- [91:10]
B
You need.
- [91:11]
A
Man. I think about Yamamoto coming in on no days rest like once a week.
- [91:16]
B
Yeah.
- [91:16]
A
And it's funny because he's been kind of homer prone this season. It's not like he's been bad, but, you know, he's been a little more hittable. He looked great in Milwaukee over the weekend, but like, I think about him. I think about him throwing those innings inning. Was it just the one? It was just the one.
- [91:31]
B
Yeah.
- [91:32]
A
Just the one. I think about that.
- [91:34]
B
He would have gone longer.
- [91:35]
A
He would have.
- [91:35]
B
He'd had to.
- [91:36]
A
Yeah, he would have. That's the thing. I think about that, like once a week. I. If I were him, I would talk about that every day. I would be so annoying about that. It would make people not like me. That's how much I would talk about. It's a bananas thing to have done. It's a bonkers thing to be able to say that you've accomplished.
- [91:56]
B
Yeah, actually in game seven. Yeah, it was. It was two and two thirds that he pitched in that game. Right. Cause he came in. Yeah, he came in in the ninth and then he finished it in 11. Yeah. Yeah.
- [92:07]
A
And then they went on from there.
- [92:09]
B
Don't want to shortchange him once a week.
- [92:11]
A
I think about it. Once a week. Week. But I clearly don't remember it very well. It's just an amazing thing to be able to.
- [92:19]
B
Yeah.
- [92:19]
A
Do.
- [92:20]
B
Yeah. And. And while we're talking about all these impressive debut performances, I suppose I would be remiss, not to mention grudgingly and late in the episode as it is the debut of Alimber Santa of the Astros, who participated in a combined no hit hitter. Yes over the no hit Texas Rangers. And as Davey Andrews wrote at Fangrass, this was a wildly improbable and pretty unimpressive no hitter, all things told. Yep, they won nine to nothing. That's the forfeit score. That's the impressive part. But Tatsuyamai started that game and Lucky could use any successful outing in any break he could get, given how this season has gone for him. But he was not particularly good. He. He walked four guys in six innings. He struck out two. There was just a lot of contact. And then Stephen Okurt came in and he took the baton and passed it to Santa, who was making his major league debut. And that's, I guess, a pretty tough spot to be put in making your major league debut. No pressure. Keep up the combined no hitter. And he did, and he pitched two scoreless innings. But on the whole, it was really about as lackluster a pitching performance one could muster. You know, I, I get only so excited about no hitters, and then I get far less excited about combined no hitters. And then there was this particular combined no hitter, which was just especially, you know, a couple. Again, it's a cool thing to make your major league debut and finish off a combined no hitter. So kudos to Alimber for doing that. But yeah, this, it was not a convincing performance. Not that you would expect it to be because the Astros have had all sorts of pitching problems this year. But you. You'd think if they pitched a no hitter, at least for one game, maybe they mustered some impressive dominant performance at. And no, not at all. And Davey broke it down every which way. And the whiff percentage and the hard hit rate, just comparing to other no hitters, and it just did not fare well by any metric except the one in the hit column and the run column too. And those were zeros. And ultimately that is what matters.
- [94:43]
A
I suppose it does feel lacking in generosity to, to harp on the unimpressive nature of this one, given especially in my struggles and the fact that like A debut guy was a participant in it. But also, yeah, look, sometimes the, the least impressive version of an impressive thing is good enough to win a baseball game. And that's really all the Astros need to worry about at this juncture, is trying to stack some wins, and it came at the expense of a division rival. That has to feel good. Do you think so? It's such a. It's also a funny feat because on the one hand, you look at it from the perspective of the Astros and it's like, all right, well, don't get too big for your britches here. But then you look at it from the perspective of the Rangers and it's like, what? You couldn't, you couldn't get one hit. You couldn't get one lousy hit on a day like that. Embarrassing. Yeah, embarrassing.
- [95:38]
B
Be adults. Yeah. The Rangers 19th in WRC plus this season, which is actually an improvement over last season. But the offensive woes continue. And the fun fact here, which was pointed out by Sarah Langs and perhaps others, Alimber Santa is the second player in MLB history to pitch in a no hitter in his MLB debut. Now that in is pretty important, the pitch in a no hitter as opposed to pitch a no hitter, but nonetheless the second player in MLB history to pitch in a no hitter in his MLB debut debut. Joining of course, the immortal Bumpus Jones. Bumpus of the Cincinnati Reds on October 15, 1892. And he went the distance. Bumpus did it all himself. And that was the year before they moved the pitching distance back to its its current mark and pitchers were ascendant at that point. And Bumpus did not go on to achieve achieve great things in the rest of his major league career. But he did achieve baseball immortality with that one debut pitching performance. And also sort of a patron saint, a spirit animal of effectively wild, I think, because as was highlighted by Alexandra Whitley at Baseball Prospectus, he was not particularly impressive in that performance either. And there was a quote, quote which Alexandra repurposed here, which I think was also highlighted in Bumpus's Saber bio. But this was originally from Sporting Life, a contemporary coverage back in 1892 which wrote the Pittsburgh players claim his wildness made him effective, they being afraid of being injured or maimed. So. So he was effectively wild. Bumpus Jones. I don't know if he was the original effectively wild pitcher. Probably not. But on that day his wildness made him effective. And that is hopefully often the case for us on this show.
- [97:41]
A
Bumpus.
- [97:42]
B
Bumpus. Just a great bumper crop of rookies this year and also a bumpus crop in 1892. And you know, despite my lack of enthusiasm about that combined no hitter, it does flummox me a little that that was the first no hitter of any kind since September 2020 cuz last year was the first no hitter list season in 20 years. Since 2005 and 2020 aside, I think every season from 2019 through 2024 had at least four no hitters. So it was weird that there was this protracted no hitter outage because batting averages are still low. I understand why we're not getting many individual no hitters because of pitch count restrictions, but you'd think we wouldn't have had such a long gap between combined no hitters. Even though bullpens have been pretty bad this year. I think relievers just surpassed starters and FIP in 2026 and starters, including openers still have a higher average 4 seamer velocity than relievers, which is weird. So relievers are being asked to do more and maybe they're not up to the task, but they were for the Astros on Monday and the last baseball observation I will make here is the Cubs. The Cubs have had an incredibly streaky season and I just want to offer my support to Cubs fans on this roller coaster ride that they are on. Which are they good? Are they bad? Are they unbeatable? Are they unwinnable? I don't know. It depends on the day and it depends on the streak because they've played 54 games and more than half of them have been part of a lengthy winning or losing streak because they have two 10 game winning streaks and a nine game losing streak that they're still on as we speak. So. So they've been on one of those extended streaks for more than half of their games this year. And I asked Michael Mountain about the highest full season percentages, just like the percentage of games that were a streak of some sort winning or losing. And he used seven games or longer because that puts you in the 90th percentile for win, loss, streak length. And unsurprisingly, as he said, all the teams at the top of this Particular ranking are 19th century teams with terrible winning percentages. So they just had extremely long losing streaks. It's just not quite what we're going for here. For a season of at least a hundred games, the record is. Who else? The 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who went 20 and 134 and 104 of their losses were part of a long losing streak. That whole season was essentially a loser losing streak for them. For teams that played between a.400 and a.600 winning percentage over at least a hundred game season. The highest proportion of games that were part of a seven plus streak is the 1916 New York Giants, whom Sam Miller wrote about in Pebble Hunting a while back and had a historic winning streak. 51 of their 152 games were part of a long streak of some kind. That's 34%. So the Cubs currently are blowing that rate out of the water. The integration era record with those same constraints. The 1951 Senators 43 games out of 154 or 28%. The 1988 on record, the 98 Orioles 43 games out of 162. That's 27%. And if you drop the winning percentage restriction but keep the post 1988, then it's the 2003 Tigers who were in that terrible team category. 62 out of 162 or 38%. And if you drop the minimum games played entirely, then the post 88 record is the 2020 mid pandemic Yankees 24 games out of 60 or 40%. But yeah, the Cubs, hopefully things will settle down for them in one way or another. And Cubs fans hope that they will win more than they lose. But also they don't have to do one or the other all at once. You know, you can just sort of sprinkle some losses in among the winds and vice versa.
- [101:43]
A
Can they?
- [101:44]
B
I don't know. I guess we'll find out. But this is something I will be tracking to see if they can stop streaking in one direction or another and just be normal for a while. Because they are on pace for some sort of record here for just perpetually streaking. They are the streakers of the 2026 season.
- [102:04]
A
The Dreamers of dreams.
- [102:05]
B
Yeah. The ironic thing is that their roster is not really a study in extremes. I think of them as being almost the opposite of stars and scrubs. They're just kind of all, you know, they've had some guys with negative war who have been bad, but they just, they have a real pronounced lack of star power. Right. So they have good players. They're, they're deep, they're solid, they're a good team. They, they will win more than they lose, I expect. But they don't have a lot of league leading types. They have Pete Kerr, Armstrong, who's probably been the most notable player because of the way he plays, because of epithets he screams at fans on occasion, because he's enthusiastic. He, he's quotable for better and for worse sometimes. But he's more of a spectacular, flashy player and is also study, study, sort of a study in extremes in contrast too. But they have a bunch of like all around good guys, you know, like Nico Horner or Alex Bregman, you hope. Just like not a lot of top end, high ceiling type of talent, which makes them, to me as a neutral observer, a bit less compelling. Just when I'm deciding, okay, who's, who's going to go on MLB TV now, who do I want to see? There isn't really a single Cubs starter I'm changing the channel to see. And there aren't really many Cubs batters I'm tuning in to see either. So it's just, I don't know if this affects Cubs fans experience of this team. And ultimately what matters most to fans is does the team win? Do we make the playoffs? Are we successful? The way that you get there matters a little less. But I guess it's emblematic of the fact that at times they've been a bit more penny pinching than you would want a team like the Cubs to be. And they haven't gone and gotten that, that top guy for the most part. And that is kind of reflected in the fact that their, their lineup, their roster, it's just a bit blase. You know, it's, it's deep, there's redundancy, it's productive, but it's just not that exciting.
- [104:13]
A
Yeah, I think that that's right. It's just kind of a, it's there.
- [104:17]
B
Yeah.
- [104:17]
A
You know, it's present.
- [104:20]
B
We, we had them pretty low on our team fund draft. I think we did because of this. Just who am I, who am I crossing the street to see? Who am I changing the channel to see on the Cubs? So I don't know. Cubs fans, write in if you agree, if you disagree, if this affects your spectator experience one way or the other. Ultimately, if they can just have a few more winning streaks and fewer losing streaks, then they'll probably be okay. Okay with it, man.
- [104:46]
A
100 WRC plus for Bregman. Wow.
- [104:49]
B
Wow.
- [104:49]
A
Wow.
- [104:49]
B
Yeah. And just want to note that there have been thrusts since we last spoke. The Giants, they've been busy thrusting and it's, it's really turned into performance art now because they are fully channeling the Key and Peel sketch.
- [105:05]
A
Yeah.
- [105:05]
B
Which I, I mentioned on one of our past podcasts when we talked about this and sort of suggested ingest that this was some sort of homage or this thrusting was in the vein of, of the Key And Peele famous football sketch. And they are taking that to heart. And they are now actually mimicking the thrusting that we saw Key and Peel perfect years ago. So I guess whatever edict came down to stop thrusting so much, they are now just ignoring or. Oh, yeah, they've just gone full Hinkle McCringleberry. So good for them. I guess.
- [105:44]
A
Guess I guess. I mean, it's. It's. It does have a different and sort of defiant energy to it, but.
- [105:52]
B
Yeah, it does, but playful.
- [105:55]
A
Playful for now.
- [105:57]
B
And no physical contact anymore either. And so if anyone preferred this way, where there's some separation and there's some distance. And so perhaps one outfielder is thrusting and the others are. Are gathered around to observe the thrusting and to count the thrusts.
- [106:14]
A
Right.
- [106:14]
B
But no one is thrusting into anyone else, which maybe makes it a little less compelling in some quarters, but points for creativity. Or maybe it's the opposite of creativity because they are just kind of copying the sketch. But nonetheless, I like the homage, the tribute. So I'm looking forward to seeing how this continues to evolve.
- [106:34]
A
Yeah, it'll be. Be. It'll be interesting.
- [106:37]
B
Yeah. And I purposely did not bring this up until the very end of the episode because I was worried that if we. Yeah, if we led with it, I thought, oh, this will take over the whole episode. We will swallow it. Will swallow the episode. Much like Bryce Harper might swallow toothpaste. But just parting shot here. Where are you on. This is non human behavior. This is reptile. This is alien in a bodysuit behavior. Or this is. Okay, both on the. The grand scale of human behavior and also the grand scale of Harper behavior. And for anyone who doesn't know what I'm referencing, this made the rounds on TikTok and Twitter, et cetera, this weekend because Bryce Harper did a TikTok where he showed off his method of brushing his teeth and in particular, applying toothpaste. And what he does is, is he applies the toothpaste directly from the tube to his mouth or to his teeth, and then he brushes, as opposed to the standard method of applying toothpaste to the toothbrush and then brushing your teeth. So the order of operations here, all out of whack. Where does this rank for you on the. Is Bryce Harper okay. Spectrum.
- [107:52]
A
Okay. Well, first of all, we just should all know less about each other. Other, you know, like, we should just. Bryce, you had done such a good job of being normal. You know, you had been. You had been pretty normal. By which I mean I had not heard from you.
- [108:07]
B
Yes. Hitting better and not as Far as we know, doing anything with ozone and blood and. But this is similarly viral. Seemingly.
- [108:20]
A
Okay, I have to. To ask this question, and I don't know that we know the answer to it. Here was the thing that I was the most immediately concerned about. Is there fluoride in that toothpaste? Is that real toothpaste?
- [108:30]
B
You know, I did wonder about that,
- [108:32]
A
but this is the thing I have to wonder with Bryce. This is the, this is the lack of trust this man has established. Right. Where. I just don't know. I just don't know, Ben, Is he.
- [108:41]
B
Yeah.
- [108:41]
A
Is he a fluoride truther? He might be a fluoride truther, yes.
- [108:45]
B
That is absolutely a relevant question. Question. But fluoride aside, the method, it was
- [108:52]
A
interesting to me because if I'm remembering the sequence of the, of the tick tock correctly, he's. He. The very first little bit of the snippet we see is him, like, talking about cleaning his tongue. He has like a tongue scraper, which, like, you should clean your tongue. And scraping it is, I think, fine, depending on what you're using to do that. But I would do it after put. You have a toothbrush. Just put it on your. Put it on your toothbrush. Why are you seeing the tube in your mouth?
- [109:22]
B
Yeah.
- [109:23]
A
Where the, where bacteria live. You're sticking it in your mouth and you're closing it up again. And then it's like, what's happening with all that. Yeah, it's not in there for very long.
- [109:31]
B
Right.
- [109:31]
A
Granted, I don't want to make of all the things that this man has put in his body, including his own blood, probably.
- [109:40]
B
Yeah.
- [109:40]
A
Like, the least troubling. I'm thrilled he believes in brushing his teeth.
- [109:47]
B
And I don't know how much contact is being made exactly.
- [109:51]
A
It's like, what is the, what is the philosophy behind this method? You know what I mean? Like, you're using a manual toothbrush. You know, I don't use a power toothbrush every night because sometimes you just, you gotta get in there and get out, you know, but, like, it's not. There's nothing advanced about the technique here. There's nothing that I think, you know, we do not see him do. Brusha brusha brusha with obviously real toothpaste. You know, he could be brushing his teeth with beef tallow for all we know. And, you know, there's nothing like, there's no, like, hey, I'm spending this much time and I do in quadrants so that I get every little bit of it. And then here I am Flossing. And then here's the mouth. Like, it's not like a particularly diligent or sophisticated approach to oral hygiene. And so that part's confusing to me. Like, why do we need to. What is. What is supposedly good about this? Right. Like taking advantage.
- [110:55]
B
Yeah.
- [110:55]
A
On its own terms. We'll set aside the. Hey, just be normal for like a hot minute element to every kind of Harper TikTok where we're like, why are you. Why are you telling us this? We. We had. I hadn't brought up raw milk in months, Ben. You know, I had moved. I had moved on. I had moved on. This man. This man has a 142 WRC. Plus, he is contributing to a Phillies team that, while they are a little bit back on the skid, is doing much better generally, as we have discussed and others have written at length, like, hey, be part of your resurgent fills. What's. What are you doing?
- [111:36]
B
Yeah, you.
- [111:37]
A
You're hosting an all star game in like a month and a half. Focus up, buddy. You want your pearly whites ready for that? Okay. Brush them like a. Nor. Children know how to do this. Do any of us do it? Well, no. That's why there are still dentists. We're all. This, this is. This is more broadly my theory of, Of. Of oral hygiene, the percentage of the population. And I am not exempting myself from this at all. This is very much looking at the gal in the mirror kind of a thing. I don't think most of us are as good about our oral hygiene as we ought to be. That's why we lie to our dentists. That's why we fib about how much we floss. You should be. I. I brush very regularly. I'm an. I am a. I am an infrequent flosser. I am not as much of a flosser as I ought to be. I know I'm wrong, but I'm so tired at the end of the day, Ben. You know, is the thing, I get so tired at the end of the day. And so sometimes I forget. And by sometimes, I mean most of the time. And so on the one hand, it's very relatable to be substandard at this, but even by that metric, he's being a freaking weirdo about it. What? You're just sticking it in, it goes. Just put it on your. You have an implement?
- [112:52]
B
Yes, and I don't know whether he is aware that there's anything atypical non
- [112:57]
A
standard about this in Nevada.
- [112:59]
B
Yeah, and look, maybe it works. For him.
- [113:01]
A
That's where he's from.
- [113:02]
B
Because some hitters, players have unorthodox mechanics and you wouldn't teach it that way, but it's effective for them. And maybe that applies to his toothbrushing. But I was, I was taken aback when I saw this. I've never done this. I've never contemplated doing this. It had not occurred to me that this could be done. I'm sure that there are other people in the world who brush their teeth this way, but I just don't know how you would develop this, this method really. And I have my idiosyncratic habits, as you are well aware. And I still hear about my method of eating burritos just because one time I bit into a burrito in the presence of Sam Miller in the middle of burrito and I've never heard the end of it. And I have an orthodox diet and you know, I put things together in a salad that you think do not belong together, but I feel like they're all going to the same place, they're all ending up in the same destination. And maybe you would think that about the brush and the mouth and the toothpaste.
- [114:05]
A
The brush has a purpose. It's not just, it's not, not like. Okay, well, two things. First of all, I do appreciate the self awareness of the statement one time Sam Miller saw me eating a burrito this way rather than trying to pretend that you one time ate a burrito that way. Right. An important distinction. Proud of you.
- [114:24]
B
Yeah.
- [114:24]
A
Second of all, okay, I have three things, actually. Second of all, the, the notion of like, well, it's all going to the same place as a justification for the things that you put together in that salad is unhinged. Because by that method, by that logic, you should be eating like chocolate and sardines together all the time. And third, the toothbrush serves a purpose. It is. It is. What is? Brushing your teeth. The only time that I have ever done anything remotely like what Bryce Harper has done is one time I was traveling and I forgot my toothbrush at home, but I had remembered the little travel toothpaste and, and I, before I had a chance to like run down to the corner store or whatever and just buy a new toothbrush, I had to brush my teeth because I am one of those people where I am a. I am on a weekday. The. Well, this is true on the weekends too. The very first thing that I do in the morning when I get up is get coffee going. And the second thing I do in the morning is brush my Teeth. I hate to have morning breath. I don't like to have a cup of coffee without having brushed my teeth first. I don't like to. I don't like to do anything. I want a clean, minty, fresh mouth before I. I To greet the day. Okay. And so I had to do something about that. And so I one time when I was traveling for work and had forgotten my toothbrush, but I had remembered my toothpaste. I did put toothpaste on my finger and then, like, kind of use my finger. Yeah, yeah. As a toothbrush.
- [115:59]
B
Yeah.
- [115:59]
A
And then, you know, I did a bunch of, like, water in there and go with the water and spit it out. And then when I was out and about that day, I acquired a toothbrush, and then I had one for the duration of the trip. Also, you should be switching out your toothbrushes more often than you think, everyone. This is like washing your water bottle. You don't have to do it that frequently because that would be a lot, but you should be doing it probably more often than you think. So.
- [116:21]
B
Yeah.
- [116:21]
A
And I say that as. As soon someone who has admitted to not being super fastidious about flossing. So I know, you know, stones and glass houses and all of that, but it's just a thing that can be easy to forget. So, like, have a backup and then swap it out more often than you think. But that is fundamentally different. That is making the best of a bad situation. I was basically camping except in a hotel. You know what I mean?
- [116:45]
B
Yeah.
- [116:45]
A
And it's, like, better to be able to go and have a clean, clean mouth and fresh breath for the day. And it's not like I wake up in, like, a horrifying state of. Of morning breath, but we all. We all have suboptimal breath in the morning, you know? Yeah. And so anyway, I just. Be. You have two choices sitting before you, Bryce, that I would prefer you choose from. I guess the third choice is be as you are. And, you know, there's something to that, I suppose, on a philosophical level, except that the way you are is weird. So here are the two. Two choices that I would like Bryce to. To choose from going forward. Choice number one, be. Nor more normal and do your tik toks. Choice number two, be as you are. Don't do any more tik toks, because I don't need to know this about him. Right. He. He started doing the cooking stuff, which was a tip off to those of us paying attention. You know, everyone was like, what's going on with the raw Milk. And I was like, he's been talking about raw milk for a long time because he's doing these tiktoks talks and he's making coffee and leaving all of us to have to go look up the differences between hot and cold caffeine and Mormon theology. And if there is actually a difference, please do not write us emails. I have already spent a lot of time on this. And you sit there and you're like, bryce, aren't you a practicing Mormon? And so how are you drinking all this coffee? And in the midst of that investigation is when we all learned about the raw milk for the first time and nobody, nobody was talking about it. But then he started to get loud about the raw milk and then his own blood, which again, like, imagine waking up in the morning and you're like, I'm gonna tell people about my blood today, you know, and, and, and you know, if you have a, a disease and you are trying to share your journey, that's a different. He was just like, my blood. It was in my body and was perfectly normal, but I needed to make sure it was outside for a little bit and then came back in. If you articulated that to someone, someone who didn't also think that you should be, you should have to go find a person who doesn't think that's normal, say it out loud and then have them repeat it back to you in the tone of voice that we are using on the podcast and then think about whether you're making good choices. This is all I'm saying. This is a grown ass man and a, a father. A fa. Is this the way his children brush
- [119:00]
B
their teeth, I wonder. Yeah, we haven't seen his wife's method. But my main concerns, I have only two concerns about this methodology. One is that if I were to employ this, which I don't and won't, but if I did, I would be concerned that I would use too much toothpaste. Probably just because if I were squirting it directly onto my teeth or something, I just, I wouldn't know how much to use because one of the nice things about you put it on the toothbrush, you can observe the it as it is forced out and so you can put the proper amount on there. And so I think I would probably get the amount wrong, but that might just be a skill issue on my part. Lack of experience. He perhaps has it finely calibrated from doing this his whole life, as far as we know. Maybe that's not an issue. Practice makes perfect. The other is that you might have the applicator, the emitter, whatever of the toothpaste touch. Touch your mouth.
- [119:58]
A
Right.
- [119:59]
B
And, and again, maybe he can avoid doing that and maybe he and his wife, maybe they don't care. You're. You're swapping spit with your spouse regularly anyway. You know, maybe, maybe it doesn't matter and she doesn't have a problem with it. But that could be a concern depending on your living arrangement. You, if you're sharing a tube of toothpaste, you might not want to just put it in your mouth, basically because someone else might have to use that. So those are are my main issues and everything else. I'm sure he has this down and probably it works okay for him. And again, we're glad he's brushing, but it definitely threw me for a loop. It's just that in the hierarchy of Harper transgressions, this is is somewhere down the list. Because not only is it not harming anyone else, it's probably not even harming him. Which is, which is nice. All things consider considered.
- [120:53]
A
Yeah. Of all the weird nonsense that this man has inflicted upon us. Hey, he's, he is brushing his teeth.
- [121:02]
B
Yes. And that at least should be celebrated.
- [121:04]
A
It should. Although qualified celebration because I still think it is a very legitimate question to be asking. Is that actual toothpaste true?
- [121:12]
B
Okay.
- [121:12]
A
Like real toothpaste that four out of five dentists would recommend?
- [121:17]
B
Yeah. Much as Bryce Harper Harper ends his day by applying toothpaste directly to his teeth, we ended this episode by talking about Bryce Harper's toothbrushing. All right, we will do our best to brush off that disturbing toothbrush imagery during this brief outro. Some updates for you the Cubs lost again to those big hitting, good pitching Pirates. 12 to 1 was the final score. So the Cubs have now lost 10 in a row and the fun fact finders are in a frenzy. As as was reported by many sources, the Cubs are Now just the second team in MLB history to have a 10 or more game losing streak and two 10 or more game winning streaks in the same season. After the hot and cold, but overall excellent 2017 Dodgers. And the Cubs are the first to do it so early in a season or within a single half. They are not the first team to have three 10 plus game streaks of any kind in a season. The abysmal 1916 Philadelphia A's, for instance, had an 11 game losing streak, a 12 game losing streak, a 20 game losing streak, and just for funsies, a nine game losing streak all by August 8th. But there's something about the combination of double digit streaks of wins and losses in a single season and in such a short span that makes this more mind blowing. Also, the Mariners beat Gage Jump and the A's Jump didn't have a great debut though I wouldn't say Seattle jumped all over him. It was a 4 to 1 game. The A's remain atop the AL west by half a game with a losing record. If only those last place Cubs who still have a winning record were in a different division. The Mets lost again, playoff odds down to 13.5%. Craig Kimbrell made his Rays debut, pitched a scoreless inning with a couple K's. It's happening. Also meant to mention that Riku Nishida in his debut game for the White Sox had the one hit as I mentioned, but also had a beautiful throw to cut down a runner at home plate to preserve a tie. And then the next day he did it again on Tuesday. He threw out another runner at home to preserve a tie in extra innings and send the game to the 11th. And then the White Sox lost in 11. But nonetheless, impressive arm. And we talked about the Rangers not scoring, not hitting against the Astros on Monday. Well, on Tuesday the tables turned. They scored 10 runs to beat the Astros and eight of those runs came in the very first inning of the game. And as determined by Elias Sports Sarah Langs, the Rangers eight runs were the second most by a team in the first inning of a game that immediately followed being no hit. Of course, the White Sox had a nine run first on September 27, 1905 in the second game of a doubleheader after getting no hit in the first game of the doubleheader against the Boston Americans, who've now been mentioned twice in as many podcast episodes. Last time we talked about the fun fact that there has never been a big leaguer who has played for the Marlins, the Cardinals and the Twins. It's the only combination of three teams whose big league bingo card has not been crossed off. And I mentioned that Matt Buck Bowman, who had just been released by the Twins, was a candidate to become the first because he had previously played for the Cardinals. All he had to do was sign with the Marlins, but no, he signed with the Blue Jays. Whoever listener Zach pointed out that we missed an extremely close call. I mentioned that Donovan Solano had played for the Marlins and the Twins. What I didn't mention is that he was a Cardinals farmhand for the first seven professional seasons of his career. He got to aaa, he left as a minor league free agent and then the very next season debuted in the big leagues with the Marlins. So, so close. Though if he had made it to the majors with the Cardinals, maybe he wouldn't have been a Marlin on a stop blast. On the third episode last week I shared some information about the first player to play in each stadium who was younger than that stadium born after the first MLP game played at that ballpark. I omitted mention of one active park, Chase Field. The first player younger than Chase Field to play in Chase Field was Fernando Tatis Jr. We need a has Fernando Tatis Jr. Hit a home this season yet? Website that just says yes or no. The answer somehow still no. Also some people asked us about this On Friday the White Sox got five hits and scored nine runs. And all the hits and all the runs came in the fourth inning. And so some people wanted to know was that the most runs scored while being hitless in all but one inning. Well, the White Sox were as determined by optostats and Sarah Langs and perhaps others, the only MLB team in the modern era to score nine or more runs in a a nine plus inning game with all of their runs and hits coming in the same inning. However, on September 11, 2021 the Blue Jays had all 11 of their hits and scored all 11 of their runs in the same inning, the seventh, but it was a seven inning game, the second game of a pandemic era doubleheader. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectively wild as have the following five listeners who have already signed up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going, help us stay ad free and get themselves access to some members. Premium Perks Steven Rush, Weirwood, Steve Foray, the original Drew and Marcy thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to a full unrestricted third episode every week, a monthly bonus episode exclusive live streams access to our Discord Group for members only. Prioritized email answers, personalized messages, shoutouts at the end of episodes, Fangraphs memberships and more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com effectivelywild if you if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphs.com youm can rate, view and subscribe to Effectively wild on Spotify, YouTube Music, Apple Podcasts and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group@facebook.com group effectivelywild. You can find the effectively wild subreddit at r effectivelywild, and you can check the podcast post at Fangraphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with another episode a little later this week. Talk to you then.
- [127:05]
A
Sometimes I still feel like that little girl hearing Grandma's handheld Radiant collecting base gift ball cards before I could read. They say I waste my time tracking all these stat lines, but it's here I found my kind all effectively. Wow.