Effectively Wild Episode 2488: Ohtani Rules

Summary

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Effectively Wild Episode 2488: Ohtani Rules

Podcast: Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Date: June 6, 2026
Hosts: Meg Rowley (FanGraphs), Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer)

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Overview

This episode of Effectively Wild dives deep into the continued historic brilliance of Shohei Ohtani, focusing on his 2026 season—which is shaping up to be his best ever by WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Meg and Ben discuss Ohtani’s two-way dominance, compare his singular achievements to Aaron Judge and other notable players, and muse about how to appreciate generational greatness as the extraordinary starts to feel routine. The episode also explores stats quirks, award races, memorable moments, and the evolving narrative around Ohtani’s career. The tone is equal parts statistical, whimsical, and appreciative.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

Ohtani’s 2026 Historic Season

• WAR Pace: Ohtani is on pace for an 11.5 WAR season (Fangraphs), eclipsing his previous career-high of 9.4. Baseball Reference has him even higher.
  • “He is having himself a fine season and…he is having his most valuable season or is on pace to.” (Meg, 01:10)
  • “He is on an 11.5 WAR pace entering the weekend…” (Ben, 01:46)
• Two-way Masterclass: In a recent outing, Ohtani reached base five times as a hitter (three singles, two walks) and pitched six scoreless innings with six strikeouts, allowing only three baserunners.
  • “He allowed three base runners or three times on base and had five himself.” (Ben, 06:27)
• Statistical Leading: Ohtani is leading the majors in both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference WAR for 2026.
  • “Fangraphs has him at 4.5; Baseball Reference has him at 5.2.” (Ben, 03:02)
• Pitching Dominance: Lowered his ERA to 0.74 with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.41, underscoring both excellence and good fortune.
  • “I, I do have kind of maybe an irrational belief in Ohtani’s clutchness from having watched him so much…” (Ben, 05:20)

Signature Two-Way Achievements & Statistical Oddities

• Historic Feat: Ohtani outperformed as a hitter (times on base) compared to what he allowed as a pitcher seven times in 91 starts (7.6% rate), more than any pitcher since at least 1898.
  • “No one with as many eligible games started as Ohtani is remotely close to his career rate…No one besides Ohtani has done this more than twice, period.” (Ben, 09:42)
• Statistical Comparisons: Other notable “two-timers” include Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Doug Drabek, and Walter Johnson—all did so only twice each, far fewer than Ohtani’s seven.
• Accounting for the ‘Ohtani Rule’: Even when limiting to plate appearances only before he’s removed as a pitcher (excluding DH game advantages), Ohtani still has achieved this three times—more than any other player.
  • “Even if we try to adjust, you can’t adjust his singular excellence out of anything.” (Ben, 15:44)

The Challenge of Appreciating Sustained Greatness

• Narrative Fatigue: As Ohtani’s feats become “normal,” it’s harder for fans and even analysts to find new superlatives or maintain a sense of awe.
  • “Do you worry that we’re not talking about Shohei Ohtani enough? I do.” (Meg, 15:48)
  • “In order to get us to talk about him at anything like the old rate, he now has to be even better than he was before and impress us even more.” (Ben, 28:49)
• Comparison to Other Sports: The discussion touches on the NBA’s Victor Wembanyama and the challenge of keeping generational talent feeling fresh and exciting.
  • “How long are people gonna be amped for Wemby…? …I think that this is something that’s going to be interesting to watch NBA fans grapple with…” (Meg, 18:11)

Judge vs. Ohtani and the Context of Greatness

• Differences in Dominance: While Judge’s peak WAR (over 11) has exceeded Ohtani’s, Ohtani’s two-way brilliance is fundamentally a different kind of singular achievement—one that feels unprecedented.
  • “I think he has a strong case to have been better…than Shohei Ohtani…But…how unusual and incredible Ohtani’s…attempt and…the execution of the attempt [is].” (Ben, 21:17; Meg, 22:13)
• Lasting Legacies: Judge will be legible and familiar to future generations as “the giant amazing slugger,” while Ohtani might become almost mythical in their distinctiveness.

Ohtani’s Limits and New Narrative Frontiers

• What’s Left?: Speculation about what would represent the “next step” in Ohtani’s evolution, e.g., playing outfield, excelling defensively, accumulating even more innings, or winning both MVP and Cy Young in one year.
  • “So it is interesting to think, what else could he do? …Now we'll just all be blase about him.” (Ben, 28:03)
  • “…then he’d have to just get into another baseball line of work…maybe morph into a Gold Glove outfielder plus closer…” (Ben, 29:33)
• Cy Young vs. MVP Realities: Despite his excellence, Ohtani likely shouldn’t win the Cy Young this year due to innings limits and competition from pitchers with more volume or unique traits (e.g., Christopher Sanchez’s scoreless streak).
  • “He shouldn’t be the Cy Young… [He] has been outstripped significantly.” (Ben, 31:30; 32:49)
• Other Notables: Discussion of the compelling seasons of Christopher Sanchez, Jacob Misarowski (“the Miz”), and others for NL Cy Young contention.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Do you worry that we’re not talking about Shohei Ohtani enough? I do.” —Meg (15:48)
• “No one with as many eligible games started as Ohtani is remotely close to his career rate...No one besides Ohtani has done this more than twice, period.” —Ben (09:42)
• “In order to get us to talk about him at anything like the old rate, he now has to be even better than he was before and impress us even more.” —Ben (28:49)
• “You can’t adjust his singular excellence out of anything.” —Ben (15:44)
• “Judge versus Ohtani is kind of the sword fight in Raiders of the Lost Ark…Ohtani is doing all the fancy stuff…and then Judge is just kind of pulling the trigger the old fashioned way.” —Ben (25:46)
• “There will be legend associated with that because it will be so distinct from what folks are used to seeing on a day to day basis as baseball fans.” —Meg (23:49)
• “What if I am a two way player and…what if I’m the first 50/50 guy and you’ve never seen anything like me, and Aaron Judge is just like, what if I hit a ton of dingers?” —Ben (26:12)
• “If he were able to win the Cy Young…and the MVP and have a 10 plus WAR season…then he’d have to just get into another baseball line of work. He would have to…be a good outfield defender…” —Ben (29:33)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ohtani’s Historic WAR Pace: [01:10] – [03:31]
• Recent Two-way Outing (5 times on base): [04:20] – [06:46]
• Historical Context & “Ohtani Rule” Feat: [07:01] – [15:15]
• Statistical Uniqueness & Comparisons: [09:53] – [13:27]
• Narrative Fatigue & Sports Comparisons: [15:48] – [20:48]
• Judge vs. Ohtani – What Singular Greatness Means: [21:02] – [23:49]
• Judge as “Legible” Superstar, Ohtani as “Mythical”: [23:49] – [25:46]
• Movie Analogy (“Raiders of the Lost Ark”): [25:46] – [26:46]
• What’s Left for Ohtani to Prove?: [28:03] – [29:33]
• Should Ohtani Win the Cy Young?: [31:09] – [33:49]
• Cy Young Contenders/Judge & Ohtani’s Value: [33:49] – [34:52]

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Takeaways

• Shohei Ohtani is redefining the possible in baseball with a season that’s arguably his most impressive yet, bending not just the rules but the language of statistics to accommodate his two-way brilliance.
• Even as his accomplishments become “expected,” Ohtani remains an awe-inspiring outlier, setting records and presenting a statistical singularity, irrespective of adjustments for context or new rules.
• There is respectful tension in baseball’s appreciation for Ohtani: the need to remain amazed without letting wonder fade into routine, even as he challenges what ‘unprecedented’ means.
• The era’s greats—Ohtani and Judge—will be remembered differently by history, with Ohtani carving out an almost mythical place while Judge represents a familiar, if extraordinary, type of dominance.
• Ohtani’s next narrative peaks may require new roles or even more historic achievements, as he’s running out of feasible superlatives; yet his current form is worth marveling over without the need for newness.

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For fans, historians, and statheads alike, this episode is an ode to the joy and challenge of appreciating greatness in real time.

Transcript

[A]

Does baseball look the same to you as it does to me? When we look at baseball, how much do we see? Well, the curveballs bend and the home runs fly more to the game than meets the eye. To get the stats compiled and the stories filed, fans on the Internet might get riled, but we can break it down on Effectively Wild.

[B]

Hello and welcome to episode 2488 of Effectively Wild, a FanGraphs baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters. I'm Meg Rowley of fangraphs and I am joined by Ben Limburg of the Ringer. Ben, how are you?

[C]

Just dandy. How are you?

[B]

I'm alive.

[C]

Good.

[D]

That's better than the bare minimum. And I think we are both doing

[C]

decently in the grand scheme of things. But neither of us can compare to

[D]

Shohei Ohtani, who, whom I must report is doing well.

[C]

He is having himself a fine season and I know that we're well down from our historic highs of talking about Shohei Ohtani.

[D]

Our banter rate about Ohtani has been

[C]

higher in past seasons, but he is having a career year.

[D]

I will have everyone know this is.

[C]

This is probably peak Ohtani, which I know seems almost preposterous to say this far into one of the best peaks in baseball history. Do I even need to say one of but that he is having his

[D]

most valuable season or is on pace too? And even if we are not on pace to set a new high for

[C]

talking about Ohtani, maybe we can pick up our pace because he is on

[D]

an 11.5 war pace entering the weekend at Fan Grass.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Do you think that he took personally your suggestion that he would win the psy but not mvp? Do you think that.

[D]

Yeah, he has picked up his hitting since then?

[B]

He has. He has indeed. He is. He is quite a bit closer to his. His career norms at this point. Feels ridiculous to say. For a guy with a 161 WRC, it's a pretty special thing. I think we have seen flashes of this version of him before, but not quite like this. Not sustained in this way. Not. Not synced up quite so well, you know, between the. The hitting and the pitching and not in a context that matters, unfortunately. Right. That is part of what makes it special. So it's. It's really something to behold.

[D]

I have beheld it a lot lately

[C]

and his career high in the previous

[D]

season, I believe according to Fangraph's war was last year was 9.4.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

And now he is on pace to surpass that by two full wins. 11.5 WAR pace at baseball referen he is higher than that.

[C]

In fact, he is leading the majors in FanGraphs where at 4.5 Baseball Reference

[D]

has him at 5.2 and his career high, I believe at baseball reference is 9.9 in 2023. You know, I'm, I'm more of a fan graphs war guy than a baseball reference war. And that's not me being a company man. I'm, I'm paid by Patreon, by our listeners, not by fan graphs directly.

[C]

Obviously I have fond feelings about fan graphs. We are affiliated fan graphs.

[D]

You are employed by fan Graphs.

[C]

But I think just objectively, if I had to choose and, and I don't

[D]

much of the time, I can look at both. I do prefer fan graphs war. But this is giving me some second thoughts about that. The fact that Ohtani has a higher Baseball reference WAR both this year and for his career high.

[C]

I'm, I'm suddenly doing Distracted Boyfriend at Baseball Reference war.

[D]

So just bump up the numbers a little bit.

[C]

But you don't even have to put

[D]

your thumb on the scale because Ohtani is doing that himself.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And we have a lot in store for our Patreon supporters today.

[D]

We're going to talk about Aaron Judge, we're going to talk about Bobby Witt

[C]

Jr. And Jordan Alvarez awards races. I have a bunch of stat blasts to share later on this episode, but

[D]

I have one Ohtani related one to lead off with here because one reason why we're talking about Sherry Ohtani now specifically is that he just had a fantastic two way outing this past week and it was one of those where we all just take stock of oh yeah, we should be talking about him every single time he does anything.

[C]

Which was basically podcast policy for some time. And we've pulled back on that a bit. But yeah, in his most recent outing he reached base five times.

[B]

Yep.

[D]

Because he had three singles and two

[C]

walks and, and as a starter he

[D]

pitched six scoreless to further lower his ERA to what is it, 0.

[C]

74 now?

[B]

0.74. But like his FIP is 2. 4 1, so it's even good. Ben, you know, kind of washed.

[D]

Yeah, I know. Look at that. Sub 200babip is basically, it's just a mirage and a low home run per fly ball rate and everything.

[C]

Yeah, I, I do have kind of

[D]

maybe an irrational belief in sh. Otani's clutchness from having watched him so

[C]

much because he does have a tend see, and a lot of pitchers do. But his is pretty pronounced or it has been in the past to really

[D]

reach back to throw harder to get out of jams.

[B]

And he's a bear down guy.

[C]

He is. He really is. Cuz yeah, he, he paces himself somewhat.

[D]

Obviously his stuff is still ridiculous even when he's pacing himself. But you can totally tell when he knows that he's at the end of his outing and he's trying to get out of a jam or he's just he has runners in scoring position or whatever it is, he will often just suddenly dial it up and then you remember, oh right when he wants to he can just throw 101 or yeah, but. But yes, perhaps good fortune has been on his side, but I was wondering

[C]

about outings where he just so manhandles

[D]

the opposition that he is more productive offensively than the entire team he faces as a pitcher.

[C]

Because in this outing it was six

[D]

Gorlas and six Ks and he allowed only two hits in one walk. So he allowed three base runners or three times on base and had five himself.

[C]

And so I wondered because he had more times on base as a hitter

[D]

than he allowed as a starter, which

[C]

starting pitchers have had the highest career rates of doing that historically?

[D]

And how he compares. I guess he also personally scored more runs than he allowed because he crossed the plate once and his opposition did not.

[C]

But I thought it might be fun

[D]

to look at this in terms of times on base.

[C]

It it's kind of like the true win a stat that was discussed in the second SAM era, which was when

[D]

a pitcher threw a complete game and

[C]

hit more home runs than runs allowed.

[D]

So it was sort of as if he had won it single handedly because he just pitched the whole game and then just personally hit a home. And that would have made the difference anyway. He didn't really need his teammates to show up at all in a sense.

[C]

And this is less stringent than that.

[D]

And that's it was always rare, but it's unheard of. Now only Ohtani could do that really in the universal DH era.

[C]

But this is not a a true win. We'd need some new branding for this.

[D]

But I asked Michael Mountain about this and he looked into it and I think we have some interesting takeaways here.

[C]

So he has excluded from his analysis starts that were made with DHRU in place where the starting pitcher never batted. If the DH entered the game as a fielder and the starting pitcher subsequently batted, he did count that. Or if the Otani rule was in

[D]

place and Otani batted as the DH even after he left the game as a Starter, he counted that too. So that's the ground rules here.

[C]

So six of Otani's 10 starts so

[D]

far this season meet those criteria, which

[C]

gives him a career rate of 7

[D]

out of 91 starts, or 7.6% outreaching his opposing batters. And apart from Austin Voth, who made

[C]

nine starts in National League parks before the universal DH was instituted and accomplished this feat in his final opportunity on

[D]

June 6, 2021, one hit by pitch as a batter and zero base runners

[C]

allowed in his two innings of work as an opener.

[D]

I think we can probably not quite count that. Yeah, that was his only start of the season.

[C]

Ohtani has the highest rate of any

[D]

pitcher since 1898 with more than three such opportunities. We need a name for this. So I'm. If you have something off, off the dome, then feel free to suggest otherwise. I'm throwing it out there for others to suggest a moniker for this sort of two way appearance and, and excellence. But Michael continues that Joe Strong of

[C]

the Baltimore Black Sox also did this once in 14 games on record, which would put him ahead of Ohtani's coming into the season.

[D]

But now that Ohtani has racked up one more, that's not the case. Also, Negro league statistics are spottier. Strong started many more than 14 games.

[C]

Those are just the only ones Michael

[D]

could find with a known hits plus walks plus hit by pitch total for both his batting and pitching lines.

[C]

Okay, so no one with as many eligible games started as Ohtani is remotely

[D]

close to his career rate. I feel like I said remotely, that's not how you say that word.

[C]

But in fact, Michael says no one besides Ohtani has done this more than twice, period.

[B]

Oh, wow.

[C]

Yeah, the two timers.

[D]

And that's I guess a negative connotation,

[C]

but in this case, the two timers are Max Scherzer, who did it twice in 222 eligible starts. Madison Bumgarner, a pretty accomplished hitter in

[D]

his day by the standards of his day. He did it twice in 293 eligible starts.

[C]

Doug Drabeck did it twice in 316 eligible starts. And the big train, Walter Johnson, did

[D]

it twice in 666 possible starts. And again, Ohtani has done it seven times. So this is sort of a signature stat for him. I did enjoy that Michael mentioned that in the famous game when Cesar Tovar played all nine defensive positions on September 22, 1968.

[C]

He was technically the starting pitcher that

[D]

day, so he got that position out of the way early.

[C]

He allowed one walk in his one inning of work, but of course stayed

[D]

in the game and ended up 1 for 3 with a walk of his

[C]

own at the plate, making him the only player in recorded history with a 100% rate of reaching base more often than the combined batters he faced in his starts. Fun fact. So I was actually sort of surprised that no one else had ever done this more than twice because you go

[D]

back far enough to Walter Johnson or. Or beyond. Pitchers used to be more passable hitters.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

But they also generally pitch deeper into

[C]

games, so it was harder to do.

[D]

And Ohtani, he's just ducking out of there after six innings. He has it easy.

[B]

And I, I mean, I do, I do think bears repeating, Ben, the man has a 161 WRC plus. Like even in, even in an era where pitchers were better hitters than we saw at the tail end of the pitchers hitting era, they weren't generally 161 WRC plus guys. Right. They weren't even, they were not, they were not 142 WRC+ guys, which was Ohtani's full season WRC+ in 2022. They weren't doing that generally. I'm sure there are, you know, exceptions, but I'm not surprised that it says infrequent a phenomena as, as you're describing it, that that strikes me as just about right, honestly.

[C]

Yeah, well, I tried to make it

[D]

harder on him here because I'm anticipating people saying, oh, Ohtani rule. We're always bending the rules in favor of Ohtani special treatment.

[C]

And in this case it skews things a little bit because he does get

[D]

to stay in games after he is removed as a pitcher. He gets to continue to hit and he's not expected to finish what he started on the mound. So you could say, well, this is sort of skewed. It's easier for him to do this

[C]

because he doesn't have to go as

[D]

deep into games as some pitchers in earlier eras did. And he gets to keep racking up times on base after he is no longer pitching.

[C]

And, and by the way, as has

[D]

been documented, he generally has hit a little bit worse on days when he pitches. And so we're looking only at pitches here. And yet still he has done this so many times. Okay, so we thought, all right, let's

[C]

make it tougher on him. Let's hold him to the same standard as everyone else.

[D]

And Michael said, I, I could try

[C]

to figure out how many times Ohtani has done this. If you count only his batting appearances

[D]

before he was removed from the game as a pitcher. So.

[B]

Okay, so just imagine that he's like any other NL starter.

[D]

Exactly. Yeah. Back in the day when back in the day starters would hit. Yeah. Or any starters. Yeah. So. So he doesn't get to keep compiling after he's pulled from the game as a pitcher. That makes it more apples to apples. Now, in the game this past week,

[C]

he still would have done this because he reached in his first four plate

[D]

appearances and he still would have qualified. Cause he reached base for the fourth time in the top of the sixth as a batter and then he pitched six full innings as a pitcher, so would account it anyway.

[C]

But Michael looked at this also. If he didn't have the Otani rule helping him out, only quote unquote, only

[D]

three of the aforementioned seven times that he has done this would have counted. And, and Wednesday would have been his first time doing it as a DoD.

[C]

But that is still more than anyone else in recorded history has done this, regardless of how many eligible starts they made.

[D]

So, yeah, this is, it's, it's pretty,

[C]

pretty impressive because the, the four times he, he did this at Dodger Stadium last year were all Ohtani rule aided. June 16, June 22, July 5, September 16.

[D]

Of course, he didn't pitch a full season last year and he was ramping up even when he came back.

[C]

But the three that still count are

[D]

this week, Wednesday, and then twice on the road with the Angels. He did it as well. And it's, I guess, a little helpful, as Michael noted, to be on the road because you get to bat before you pitch in that case. But he did this April 20, April 20, 2022 and April 17, 2023.

[C]

So three total times. And again, no one else has ever done so. Even if we try to adjust, you

[D]

can't adjust his singular excellence out of anything.

[B]

Do you worry

[D]

that we're not talking

[C]

about Shohei O Tani enough? I do.

[B]

Do you worry that we, not you and I specifically, but like, as a sport, that we don't have anywhere left to go with this guy. Well, do you. You know what I mean? I was thinking today about, and I want to be clear, I think baseball is better when Aaron Judge is healthy and playing and playing well. But I was, I was thinking today about Judge's injury and you know, as Jay Jaffe and I were going back and forth a little bit last night as we got clarity into the severity of it, and you know, there's the relief that it's not thoracic outlet syndrome. You know, we're, we're kind of going back and forth on it because he really wrote about Judge today, and I kind of snarkily quipped. And again, I'm trying. I'm not trying to make light of the injury, but I was like, oh, well, we're gonna get a new AL mvp, I guess.

[D]

Yes. That was my.

[C]

One of my first reactions, too.

[D]

Oh, finally.

[B]

And what a spoiled brat. I sound like saying that because, you know, to be able to have both of these guys, and I'm gonna say something that might offend Yankees fans, and I just want you all. I don't. I'm not trying to bring you of low again, and you're in your moment of vulnerability, but, like, there we can acknowledge a gap, right, between Otani and Judge in terms of what the peak form can look like and sort of how singular it is. How singular can you modify singularity? Probably not. It's, like, unique, right. Anyway.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

Can have different degrees of. Well, maybe not you can. No, maybe you can't. But. Well, yeah, you could be. You could be singular in.

[D]

In more ways than someone else is singular. You could have several points of being singular.

[B]

Yeah. But you can have points of uniqueness.

[D]

It's true.

[B]

But I think we can acknowledge that, like, the firing on all cylinders version of Ohtani looks different in a. In a real way than Judge, and yet we should appreciate. We should appreciate Judge. You know, we need to, like, like, like, let ourselves acknowledge, to your point, what it means to be able to watch these guys. And yet. And yet we have this moment where we're like, oh, we get a new thing. And so I just wonder what the. The next narrative breakthrough is for Ohtani. And I think we're. We're seeing it this season, but, like, after that, you know, after we get the version of him that looks like it is gonna come with both an MVP and a Cy Young potentially. Although it really will be interesting to see how that trends. But then what? You know, it's like we. We talked a couple episodes ago about, like, Wemby and his giant hands apart from anything else, and I think that this is. Is something that's going to be interesting to watch NBA fans grapple with, like, how. How long are people gonna be amped for Wemby, which feels like a ridiculous thing to ask because he's so singular and so unusual in the. Even in the history of a sport that has a lot of precedent for, like, good big men. Right. He's just unlike anything we've seen, at least in a long time. And yet, you can kind of already feel it a little bit where it's like, well, he did. He did have that obvious elbow in that one game. And you know, he's so French. How will people feel about that? So I just, you know, and I'm not saying that people are going to like, turn against Ohtani. The people who are inclined to sort of embrace a heel turn are still trying to flog the notion that like, Ohtani was the one who was gambling and Ippei, like took the fall for him. So, you know, maybe we've already quarantined part of the baseball fan population and put it over in conspiracy land. But I. It's just a. It's just an interesting thing to think about. And I also can't believe I'm even entertaining it because really what we should be focused on is what he's doing right now, which is so incredible.

[C]

Yeah, well, Wemby's so young that he

[D]

has room to grow.

[C]

I mean, physically maybe not, although I wouldn't put it past him.

[D]

But yeah, he's just evolving. And this was a new version of Wemby this year. And he's so good at defense. But wow, how high is his offensive ceiling? Again, not physically, but he's 22 years old and Shohei Ohtani is about a month away from reaching the advanced age of 32 and been writing something about solo Beatles music. And so when I see 32, I think of Ringo Starr singing in the. The John Lennon written. I'm the greatest.

[C]

Now I'm only 32 and all I want to do is boogaloo. Hey,

[B]

it's shocking that you have time for so many obsessions because you also just consume so much media. You couldn't do it if you needed to sleep more. You realize that your entire like professional

[C]

life is predicated keeping all these plates spinning and balls in the air. Being a low sleep guy, short changing myself sleep wise. But anyway, so I'll.

[D]

I don't know whether all Ohtani wants to do is. Is boogaloo now that he is about 32. Probably not.

[C]

But I will say a word in defense of Aaron Judge, because won't someone stick up for Aaron Judge? I think that he has been good

[D]

in a meaningfully different way from Otani. But if we're just talking about peak value.

[B]

Right.

[D]

I think he has a strong case to have been better in that department than sh. Otani. Just, you know, he has had higher war totals. He's been at 11 war. Right. He is. When they are both kind of in the past Several seasons when they're both healthy and an operational and everything. Generally, Judge has outstripped Otani war wise.

[B]

So I want to be clear. I am not, I'm not like a, a Judge War truth or anything like that. I don't think that, you know, the numbers are what they are. And he is, he is phenomenal. And it's, it's incredible because he, you know, was a guy who after a couple of good seasons, people were still like, well, is this guy gonna really like be a Hall of Famer, though? And it's like, well, yes. The answer to that seems like it's a resounding and unequivocal yes. But I think that both of these guys will, their careers will stand the test of time when we are looking back on this era of baseball. But I think that the way that we collectively talk about Ohtani is just, it is going to be operating in a different register than it is for, for Judge and, and that, and I don't mean that as a, as a slight on Judge. It's, it's really just a statement about like how unusual and incredible Ohtani's both the, the attempt and the execution of the attempt. Attempt doing the two way thing. And like, especially if he keeps accruing hardware and adds a Cy Young. I just think that when we are at a point where there are generations of baseball fans who were not around to see Ohtani live and obviously their ability to access his play will be like appreciably better and different than our ability to like watch Babe Ruth, right? But Aaron Judge is good. Even though he is, you know, so much better than, than everyone else around him, he is good in a way that will feel familiar to baseball fans of the future. They're like, well, I've seen a version of that guy before, right? I've seen a version of the Giant guy. I've seen a version of the incredible hidden guy who, who looks like he should be too long but is able to hit the way the Judge is able to hit. They will have sort of precedent for that in their mental catalog of baseball. And maybe there will be more Ohtani lights in the future, but I just don't think that unless you were around to see it that you're going to be able to quite, you know, there will be legend associated with that because it will be so disappointed distinct from what folks are used to seeing on a day to day basis as baseball fans. So I just think it's going to be a different level of thing. Plus, like all of his Deferrals will have hit him by then. So he might just own California. You know, who knows, he might just. Yeah, who knows what will have changed? Maybe he'll be president. We, we might a lot more relaxed

[D]

about some stuff moved so he doesn't have to pay state income tax at

[C]

that point but on, on, on when he's actually making money.

[B]

But we don't know that he's that kind of guy yet. So let's tag him with it.

[C]

Maybe he will just decide I want

[D]

to give back to the public.

[C]

I want to help infrastructure projects and therefore please tax me by all means.

[B]

I do wonder. Yeah it would be so great if vote. He would really cement his his place on like lefty baseball Twitter if he came out tomorrow and was like no, I think that like we should be taxing millionaires at a much higher rate honestly. Like infrastructure costs money and we believe in a community. Good. I, I am always curious with guys who come to the States from abroad. Like what I wonder where he and his family will settle when his playing career is done. Like will he want to stay here or will he and his wife and family, however many kids they have by that point, want to go back to Japan? Anyway, that, that's neither here nor there. It's just a thing I think about, you know.

[C]

Well, Judge versus Ohtani, it's kind of

[D]

the sword fight in Raiders of the Lost Ark. It's like you have this, this fancy guy who's spinning the swords around and then Indy just shoots him and the fight is over.

[C]

That's.

[B]

That's such a. Yeah, it's kind of

[C]

what we have seen here where Ohtani is just like, what if I am a two way player and, and what if I do both things and then also what if I'm the first 5050

[D]

guy and you've never seen anything like me and Aaron Judge is just like what if I hit a ton of dingers? Like what if I was just judges

[B]

Indiana Jones in this.

[D]

Judges Indy.

[C]

Yes. And judges is Harrison Ford who had

[D]

dysentery and just suggested to Spielberg what if I just shoot the sucker so

[C]

that I don't have to have an extended sword versus whip fight here. That's kind of what this is where Ohtani is doing all the fancy stuff

[D]

and all the high degree of difficulty

[C]

and then Judge is just kind of pulling the trigger the old fashioned way.

[D]

And it's not particularly, it's not as impressive perhaps. It's very impressive to be clear. But it's maybe not quite as impressive.

[C]

But but it gets the job done. That's kind of what it is. Now, Judge has been so good at

[D]

the more traditional model of being good at baseball that still marveled at him. And oh yeah, he still has the ridiculous Bandian WRC plus marks and he still has the 62 homers and, and all the rest.

[C]

So he has been so spectacular at

[D]

doing this in a more conventional way

[C]

that it is still a spectacle. It is still sensational.

[D]

But probably, maybe in his heart of

[C]

hearts, who knows, maybe Aaron Judge is just looking at the WAR leaderboards and

[D]

saying, hey, scoreboards, leaderboards.

[C]

I have the higher total. Everyone's, you know, making, making such a fuss about Ohtani. He can do all this fancy stuff that we haven't seen in a century

[D]

or ever, etc, and here I am still being better at baseball than he

[C]

is in a sense.

[D]

But what Ohtani does is just so impressive and unprecedented, or at least without recent precedent, that we all marvel at

[C]

it because it's more than war.

[D]

It certainly is war, but it's the degree of difficulty that he sets himself.

[C]

So it is interesting to think, what else could he do? Because we've probably been having this conversation

[D]

just about every season of Ohtani's career, at least every fully healthy season of his career. Oh, okay, he raised the bar. He has now met or exceeded our wildest dreams for how good he could be. Now what? Now we'll just all be blase about him.

[C]

And maybe we have been to an extent because we've talked about him less, even though he is having maybe his most valuable season. We talked about him less on a

[D]

rate basis than we did in a lot less valuable seasons than he had

[C]

in the past because it was new and novel and we'd never seen him do it or anyone do it. And now we've seen him do it several times and we understand that he can.

[D]

And so in order to get us to talk about him at anything like the old rate, he now has to be even better than he was before and impress us even more.

[C]

And so he has done that at times with, oh, suddenly I'm a 5050

[D]

guy and hey, now I'll just be better at pitching than I've ever been and I'll do all of these things or I'll just be a better hitter

[C]

than I've been before. So really it would be hard to

[D]

go anywhere from if he were able to win the Cy Young awards and the MVP and have a 10 plus war season or something, then he'd have to. I think he'd have to just get into another baseball line of work. He would have to just start playing the field.

[C]

I think he'd have to show that he could be a good outfield defender. Let's say he'd have to maybe morph

[D]

into a Gold Glove outfielder plus closer or something like.

[C]

There'd have to be some new, some

[D]

new permutation of his skills. I think he'd have to be deployed in a different way probably.

[B]

Do you think that if he started to demonstrate a pronounced uptick in his durability as a starter that it would change anything? Because part of the reality of him having to manage the dual workloads is that he's probably always going to have some sort of upper bound on how many innings he goes in a start. Even if as the rest of his career unfolds, we start to see more, more days like we have seen of him this season where they just don't have him hit on the days that he's pitching and he's not doing. He's still a two way player, but he is not two way in the same game. Ohtani, we do need some new verbiage.

[D]

I know. Yeah. Or this week when he had that great two way game and then they gave him the next day off, which was pre planned but they told him ahead of time so that he could

[C]

just leave it all on the fields. Yeah.

[D]

And I guess that, that, that may have worked, but yeah, it's true. And he's been pitching on a once a week schedule pretty strictly too. So. Yeah, but, but then again, these days it's not like you have anyone really racking up.

[B]

Right.

[D]

Well, at least we haven't.

[C]

But this season. Well, maybe in some cases, Christopher Sanchez, he's doing his best. Cam Schlitler, sort of.

[D]

So that's the question, I guess, is should he win? Sigh.

[C]

Because he probably should not. Right. I mean if, if the season ended

[D]

today, as we always say, which would be weird and why would it. And that would be quite disappointing.

[C]

But if it did, he shouldn't be

[D]

the Cy Young winner.

[B]

He shouldn't be the Cy Young.

[D]

No, I, I don't think so.

[B]

And I, I'm sorry to be so like forceful about it because that sounds disrespectful. But he shouldn't be the Saiyan. No.

[D]

Now if he manages to be a qualified pitcher or close, he's just tracking barely behind that pace now and somehow we're able to maintain this sort of sparkling era. Well, there would be, I think a push, there'd be a sentiment hey, this is the thing he hasn't done. This is. How cool would it be if he

[C]

did do it and checked off this

[D]

box and it was his goal coming into the season. But we do not have to give him the award because he wanted it. So

[B]

what?

[C]

As cool as it would be for him to earn it legitimately, and I'm sure that even he would not want

[D]

to just kind of get a courtesy sigh or something, he wants to win

[C]

it fair and square. And as of today, he has not

[D]

been the most valuable pitcher in the

[C]

National League because, well, partly it's, it's

[D]

because, yeah, he, he has been a little lucky. Despite being great. He's also benefited from some good fortune.

[C]

But also he doesn't have the innings

[D]

and, and you know, he's doing a decent job in the innings department, but he has been outstripped significantly.

[C]

Christopher Sanchez has pitched 86 and a third innings. Shohei has pitched 61.

[D]

So if it were just the Miz,

[C]

who's about 10 innings ahead of Ohtani. Well, I don't know, but even the

[D]

Miz has been been more valuable as a pitcher than Shohei Ohtani has.

[C]

Ohtani's been excellent, but he is, I

[D]

think, effectively tied with Paul Skeens. But they are both well behind Christopher

[C]

Sanchez and Jacob Misarowski. So if, if they were to sustain

[D]

what they have done, then I don't think there's a great argument for giving Otani the MVP other than look how low his ERA is though. And wow, wouldn't it be cool if he won one?

[C]

Neither of which really passes Buster, if I'm being intellectually consistent here.

[D]

So, yes, I, I think that he

[C]

would have to continue to avoid regression if the other guys keep pitching at

[D]

this pace and they've just, they've done

[C]

it in such impressive fashion with Christopher Sanchez having a pretty historic scoreless streak

[D]

with the Miz throwing harder than anyone

[C]

has ever thrown as a starter.

[D]

They have some sort of sexy attention getting aspects to their season too, right?

[B]

This was the point that I made when we had our even more premature side discussion, which is that like, it is not as if there are, we are lacking in compelling narrative for the guys at the top of that leaderboard. And now we have even more compelling narrative because I think when we had that conversation, Sanchez had maybe just begun his scoreless streak. He was not that far into it, if I recall correctly. You know, and the Miz is the Miz so, so casual about that. The misses the Miz, you know, this like baby face Charizard. Obsessive who throws 103. I just love how much he loves Pokemon.

[C]

Yeah, it is fun. And and then you have pitcher of

[D]

the month Spencer Araghetti who's coming for all of them hot on their heels but fortunately for them, no, he's in the American League.

[B]

I was gonna say they don't have to worry about Spencer Arrighetti.

[C]

That'll do it for the free preview of today's Effectively Wild.

[D]

Thank you for listening.

[C]

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[D]

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[C]

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[D]

Wild whatever form it takes.