Effectively Wild Episode 2503: Very Important Prey

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2503: Very Important Prey

Date: July 11, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)

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Overview

This episode of Effectively Wild dives deep into the randomness behind short, extraordinary baseball achievements—specifically, why some of the most impressive hitting streaks belong to unsung, mediocre players rather than stars. The conversation then shifts to the 2026 Home Run Derby field, before pivoting to the day’s biggest off-field story: Bryce Harper’s involvement (however tangential) in problematic sportsbook marketing. Ben and Meg navigate the ethical and societal issues posed by sports gambling’s rising influence, especially as it relates to player endorsements and MLB partnerships.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Why Do No-Name Players Hold Small-Sample Hitting Records?

[00:33–07:47]

• Ben recaps the “12 consecutive hits” anomaly:
  • Historically, the record for 12 consecutive hits or plate appearances is held by players like Pinky Higgins, Jose Miranda, Walt Dropo, and Tyler Tolbert—hardly household names.
  • Intuitively, shouldn’t some stars appear on these lists?
• Listener responses provide statistical perspectives:
  • Listener Ricky: “It’s just odds. Anyone can do anything for 12 plate appearances…you have a league with thousands of mediocrish players and few stars… it makes sense that it’d be some random group. It’s a random streak.” [01:25]
  • Listener Preston: Average players get more PAs lower in the order, with more men on base, so they’re more likely to be pitched to aggressively even mid-streak. But ultimately “it’s random” [02:13], and even 10-game streaks have some stars (Pedroia, Bernie Williams, Altuve), but mostly just randomness.
  • Listener Tom: The difference between a .200 and .300 hitter is “not huge” in the context of 12-straight. Since there are vastly more “meh” hitters than stars, the odds favor the randoms.
  • Listener Benjamin: Bayesian logic—“A .300 hitter is 9 times more likely to get 12 straight hits than a .250 hitter, but there are 100 times as many unremarkable players [as All Stars]…so we'd expect the unremarkable players to do it.” [04:49]
• Ben’s conclusion: The outcome is “just that the not-so-great players outnumber the great players.”
• Meg: “A statistic that is really highlighting these guys being very good, albeit in a short stretch, is actually about making us appreciate the very good players more…It’s just like a large numbers situation. I find that compelling.” [07:24]
• Ben: For more skill-dependent feats (consecutive HR games), the list includes at least some legends (Griffey, Mattingly). For streaks governed by chance, the “randoms” win out.

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2. Home Run Derby 2026 News

[07:47–13:25]

• Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber join the 2026 Derby:
  • Harper’s addition is headline news—possibly to distract from the day's controversy—but Meg and Ben mostly see normal PR timing.
  • Ben: “The field as it stands…a little lacking in star power…I could imagine the average fan saying Jack Caglione, who?” [11:07]
  • Meg notes the “fried rice battery” meme involving Yankee Ben Rice, and jokes about the quirky fun of non-star participants (Jack “Jackwagon” Caglione, etc.).
  • Ben hopes Japanese star Munetaka Murakami joins to boost international appeal.
• Assessment: Fun field, but missing marquee “Q rating” names like Judge or Shohei Ohtani due to injury or choice.

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3. The Bryce Harper–FanDuel Gambling Controversy

[13:25–35:17]

The Story Unfolds

• Philadelphia Inquirer reports on a lawsuit:
  • A VIP gambler, deep in addiction, received a personalized Thanksgiving video from Bryce Harper, facilitated by FanDuel. The legality and morality of this are questioned.
• Ben’s summary of the facts:
  • Harper’s message was generic—well-wishing, no explicit betting encouragement. It included a FanDuel watermark but no FD gear.
  • “As we record still exactly…what Harper knew about it. There’s a FanDuel logo…but it is clear that he knew it was FanDuel related…the actual text…was about a 20 second video addressed to this gambler…‘Hey Terry, what’s up, brother?…Your host, Brittany from FanDuel wanted to make sure your Thanksgiving was extra special…Appreciate all the support through the years…Have a great day, see you soon.’” [15:07]
• No comment from Harper’s camp or the Phillies.

Ethical & Regulatory Discussion

• Ben frames the core issue:
  • The practice is “certainly distasteful” [19:55], but Harper is arguably more a tool of the system than its architect.
  • MLB’s CPA allows player sportsbook endorsement, so long as they don’t encourage baseball betting specifically.
• Meg’s analysis:
  • “I think the takeaway here is…this is just an industry that seems wildly predatory.” [22:09]
  • Cites evidence of persistent “VIP” treatment even toward self-reported addicts.
  • Draws parallels to alcohol companies targeting those in recovery: “We’d think really badly of Anheuser Busch if they camped out outside of AA meetings…a violation of the social contract.” [26:20]
• Ben’s conclusion:
  • “When you understand that someone has a problem…you’re just their dealer… giving them more rope to hang themselves while you profit from their financial demise. It’s just terrible.” [29:04]
• Both hosts call for greater regulation:
  • “Societal fallout...this is an actual societal ill that is having measurable harmful effects. And just ethically… how can you justify…” [29:15]
  • Other countries have imposed broadcast restrictions and advertising limitations after seeing the harms.
• Lighter aside:
  • Bryce Harper's Mormonism, which generally frowns on gambling, makes the optics stranger: “It is kind of uncanny how Bryce Harper always ends up becoming the main character though.” [34:30]
  • Ben and Meg joke about one of Harper's previous “raw milk” phases, his look in the video, and the relative innocence of most Cameo messages.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

Statistical Streaks

• Ben Lindbergh [01:25]:
  “Anyone can do anything for 12 plate appearances...if you have a league with thousands of mediocrish players and few stars...it’d be some random group.”
• Meg Riley [07:24]:
  “A statistic that is really highlighting these guys being very good, albeit in a short stretch, is…actually about making us appreciate the very good players more.”

Gambling Ethics

• Ben Lindbergh [13:25]:
  “I guess, you know, maybe that’s conspiracy minded of me…but…let’s change the narrative, Bryce, what can you do?”
• Bryce Harper (quoted video; read by Ben) [15:07]:
  “‘Hey, Terry, what’s up brother?…Your host Brittany from FanDuel wanted to make sure your Thanksgiving was extra special…Appreciate all the support through the years…Have a great day, see you soon.’”
• Meg Riley [21:37]:
  “If I were a professional athlete…I would want to have as much of a remove from it [sports betting] as I possibly could…we know how vile some of the messages that pro athletes get are when bets go sideways for people…”
• Meg Riley [22:09]:
  “…the simple act of being able to do it from your phone…and the ease with which you can kind of get in the hole and not realize it...is...its own problem. But on top of that...these companies are...not only...not indifferent to that, they are actively cultivating those most problem gamblers.”
• Ben Lindbergh [29:15]:
  "Societal fallout from this...this is an actual societal ill that is having measurable harmful effects. And just ethically, morally…how can you justify..."

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:33 — Ben introduces the topic: Why do mediocre players hold improbable hitting streak records?
• 01:25–06:30 — Listener responses and math-driven explanations; discussion of the statistical and Bayesian underpinnings.
• 07:24 — Meg on how random streaks can paradoxically heighten our appreciation for true stars.
• 07:47–13:25 — Home Run Derby lineup news and the importance of “star power.”
• 13:25 — Ben introduces the Bryce Harper–FanDuel/ gambling controversy.
• 15:07 — The content of Harper’s video message is quoted and dissected.
• 19:55–22:09 — Ethical responsibilities: Should blame fall on Harper or the industry? Comparison to big alcohol or tobacco marketing.
• 26:20 — Meg’s analogy: “It would be like if Anheuser-Busch camped out outside of AA meetings…”
• 29:04–35:17 — The case for stronger regulation, international context, and the recurring theme of Harper as “main character.”

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Tone & Takeaways

• Tone: Analytical, wryly skeptical, concerned but not sensationalist; hosts blend technical/statistical insight with dry humor and ethical seriousness.
• Takeaways:
  • Small-sample baseball feats reinforce the overwhelming role of chance, not just skill—most record-holders are random “average” players.
  • MLB, players, and fans face difficult new challenges as sports betting becomes ever more predatory and pervasive.
  • While star endorsement can create controversy, the real villain is unchecked sportsbook marketing and insufficient regulation.
  • Both hosts argue that a serious, unified regulatory approach is needed to address gambling’s societal harm—especially as U.S. sports sprint ahead of lessons learned elsewhere.

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End of free episode; for the full discussion, Effectively Wild listeners are encouraged to join the Patreon.

Transcript

[Meg Riley]

Baseball is a simulation. It's all just one big math equation. Hear all about these stats we've compiled cause you're listening to Effectively Wild with Ben Lindbergh and Matt Rowley. Come for the ball Banter's free. Baseball is a simulation. It's all just one big convers.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Effectively Wild hello and welcome to episode 2503 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, joined by Meg Riley of Fan Graphs. Hello Meg, Hello. Well, my curiosity has been satisfied. I think we might have an answer to the riddle, the mystery that has consumed me since we potted a couple days ago about Tyler Tolbert and the undistinguished group of five guys who have had 12 consecutive hits at least in 12 consecutive at bats, or three guys in 12 consecutive plate appearances. And it's the Pinky Higginses, the Jose Miranda's, the Walt Dropos, the Johnny Klings, the Tyler Tolberts of the world. They have made history, but they're mostly not players anyone would know otherwise unless they're true scholars of baseball. And I wondered and we wondered why this was because yes, there's plenty of randomness when it comes to hits and hitting streaks, especially small sample hitting streaks. But wouldn't it stand to reason that there would be at least some stars in that group, some standout hitters? And you know what? Maybe not. Maybe I underestimated the randomness and how rare stars are. We got a couple responses to this from listeners and Patreon supporters and I think they might be spot on here. So listener Patreon supporter Ricky says I have a thought on the 12 consecutive hit streaks. It's exactly what you would hope. It's just odds. You said it yourself, anyone can do anything for 12 plate appearances. If anyone can do it and you have a league with thousands of mediocrish players and few stars comparatively, then it makes sense that it would be some random group. It's a random streak. Possibly their lack of prowess may be why they would still be pitched to after hits. 7, 8, 9, etc. Listener Patreon Supporter Preston had sort of a similar response. I've got a pretty simple theory on Ben's observation that those who hit in 12 straight at bats are mediocre players. Mediocre players will tend to bat lower in the order. This makes it more likely that they will bat with people on base, which in turn means that they are more likely to be attacked by pitchers while the better hitters on a team would be more likely to pitch to round. That's a theory, but here's what I actually think. Having looked at streaks of 10 or longer, you it's random. The two streaks of 11 at bats are by borderline hall of Fame players Dustin Pedroia and Bernie Williams, who each had 200 hits in the year they did it. Streaks of 10 are a little more random. Corey Dickerson had just a 98 OPS in the year of his streak, but no one else was lower than.109. The only really shocking one is Chris Stines, who spread his streak over two seasons with two teams. He combined for a.109 OPS during those two seasons, but was at just 87 for his career. However, Jose Altuve had a 10 at bat streak. Two more in this vein, here's listener Tom who says here's my unremarkable hitters are the ones who have gotten hits in 12 straight plate appearances theory. Most major league hitters have batting averages between.200 and.300. While there's a difference there, it's not huge. Now if you assume that any player's chance of getting a hit in a single plate appearance is his batting average, you just have to figure out the probability of 12 straight hits. And I guess that would be true with bats. Obviously with plate appearances, there's other stuff going on. While Ted Williams will have a higher chance of that than Tyler Tolbert, they're probably both very small chances. Now here's the important part. I imagine there have been more plate appearances taken by average meh players or worse than by stars, certainly, and probably by a lot. So the chances of any particular player doing it are very low in and higher for better hitters. But because worse hitters have taken more of the plate appearances, they have been the ones to get lucky and flip 12 heads in a row, as it were. Yeah, I haven't done any actual math on this, but might if I have time later. This is different from other hitting records where you need to be better for longer. I wonder if other similar short records, most walks in a row, most played appearances or games with a homer have similarly anonymous names. And a little more math was done by listener Patreon supporter Benjamin who writes and has sort of a similar hypothesis here. The list of players with 12 straight hits being fairly unremarkable is actually what you might expect for a Bayesian framework. So we were not doing enough Bayesian thinking here. Essentially there are just so many more unremarkable players. The probability of a.250 hitter getting 12 straight hits is 0.25 to the 12th, which is 0.000000596. I don't know if I did the right number of O's there, but seven, seven zeros, 596. The probability of a.300 hitter getting 12 straight hits is 0.3 to the 12th, which is 0.000. That's seven straight hits. No. 8, six straight zeros. 531441. So both are very unlikely. Obviously 0.3 to the 12th divided by 0.25 to the 12th equals nine or so. So a given.300 hitter is nine times more likely to to get 12 straight hits than a.250 hitter. But there are just so many more unremarkable players. As a proxy, there have been about 22,000 big leaguers and about 2,200 all stars. So roughly 100 times as many unremarkable players. So if there are a hundred times as many unremarkable players as All Stars and All stars are only nine times more likely to get 12 straight hits, we'd expect the unremarkable players to do it. I obviously made a lot of simplifications here, but I think the results make sense and I think they're onto something here. Now, obviously the better players, the All Star type players, they are going to get a disproportionate number of plate appearances per player. They're probably going to have longer careers, but they are still outnumbered significantly by the other part of the bell curve, the guys who are big leaguers. So obviously they're good, but by big league standards, they're not that good. So I think this makes some sense. And of course, if you're walking a lot, if you're reaching base by other means, then that'll make it hard for you to have the 12 straight hits and 12 straight at bats because you might have a walk or something in there messing things up. But this holds true. The unremarkable players, even for the 12 straight plate appearances, group the even more restrictive club. But yeah, maybe this is just it that it's, it's fairly random and there are many more players who are just kind of mediocre than guys who are really good, and the odds aren't different enough to overcome that difference.

[Meg Riley]

I think it's very funny that a statistic that is really highlighting these guys being very good, albeit in a short stretch, is, is actually about making us appreciate the very good players more. They are not the ones on, on the list. Just Because I, I think you're right that it's just like a large numbers sort of situation. I find that compelling. Okay.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I was, I was hoping there'd be some sort of smoking gun. There'd be like, oh, the secret to why worse players counterintuitively are more likely to have great hitting streaks in small samples or something. But it's, it's really just that the not so great players outnumber the great players, I guess. I guess that's it. But yeah, that's worth keeping in mind too, I guess when it comes to most consecutive games with a home run or that sort of thing, as the first responder here was mentioning, I, you know, that's probably a little different. Just because it is harder to hit a home run, that is a lower probability event. And so you do get, you know, single games, like the four home runs in a single game. There are some surprising guys, right. And know most consecutive games with a homer. You've got Ken Griffey Jr. In there, who is one of the more prolific home run hitters of all time. You've got Don Mattingly, who is an excellent hitter in his heyday. And then you've got Dale Long, which is maybe not quite as much of a household name more in the Walt Dropo class of hitter, but you do have at least one alt timer and one guy who was hall of Fame level at his peak. So it's sort of two out of three really remarkable players. So that makes a bit more sense. But yeah, home runs are, are just harder to hit in general. So. And even Dale Long was an All Star once, so he's part of that remarkable cohort, relatively speaking. Okay, well, I want to talk more about All Star selections and Zach Wheeler's snub and I want to talk about a disparity in how two no hitter attempts were handled on Wednesday in the wake of the Iryperes pulled mid perfecto game that we talked about from Sunday. But we had an interesting contrast in how Dylan Cease and Jared Jones were handled in some noteworthy starts of theirs midweek. And we'll get to some stat blasting and maybe some emails. Lots in store here. However, I guess we should talk about the big news about Bryce Harper, which is of course that he will be participating in the Home Run Derby next week. Congrats Bryce. Congrats Phillies fans. That'll be fun for all involved. But no, that was not the biggest headline about Bryce on Thursday. In fact, the timing of that announcement was almost semi suspicious. Just like. Let's change the narrative Bryce, what can you do? What's a feel good story that can get people talking about something other than this paid promotion that you did for FanDuel. And I guess, you know, maybe that's conspiracy minded of me. This is of course the time when Home Run Derby participants are generally announced and makes sense for him to do that in Philly and, and I'm, I'm glad he is doing it because the field as it stands as we record here on Friday, a little lacking in star power I think for the. The average mainstream kind of casual fan who might be tuning in.

[Meg Riley]

I don't know if you saw the news though just before we started that Bryce's teammate Kyle Schwaber will also be.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I was waiting for that.

[Meg Riley]

To the dirty. So not. Certainly not the only Philly. And I think, yeah, you know, of the guys with sort of name brand recognition, he has to rank pretty highly. I think people just, you know, shore Bomb, as it were.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Definitely. Yes. Oh wow, look at that. I just refreshed the Home Run Derby page that I had opened just before we started recording and now there's another name and headshot on there. Kyle Schwarber has a wild. Kyle Schwerber has appeared. Well, that makes all the sense in the world. I was wondering if, if Schwarber would do it because Phillies and great home run hitter. And I'm interested in all these players, of course, but I could imagine the average fan saying Jack Caclione, who you know, Ben Rice is not the big name Yankee slugger even though he has been great. Jordan Walker, all these guys are deserving, but not quite as much. Name value, brand value. Q rating, I suppose.

[Meg Riley]

Q rating. I mean, I think that Ben Rice has a high rating by virtue of being a Yankee. And also, you know, the, the. Everyone wants the, the fried rice battery. I know it's freed rice, but Fried rice battery, even though he hasn't caught a game this season. So we have been left waiting and you know, maybe I'm just too familiar. It strikes me as a. A good group and a fun one. And I think anyone who isn't enthused at the prospect of Caglion isn't aware of Jack Wagon. We're gonna have to bring Jack Wagon back.

[Ben Lindbergh]

You know, he hits balls a long way when he hits them, which he probably will in the Home Run Derby. You would think Junior Caminero, Wilson Contreras. Yeah, look, there'll be a lot of bombs. This will be fun. I hope and suspect that Munetaka Murakami may be the final participant added to fill out this field since he has healed just in time. And maybe that'll give the derby even more of a global audience that I'm Netflix craves. Murakami, of course, very much up my alley. But yeah, it's like the biggest stars. George obviously is. Is hurt and probably wouldn't participate anyway. And Shohei is not going to be doing this. Some of the bigger names we have shown people may be more likely to. To pull out.

[Meg Riley]

Leo is concussed and can't do it. I don't know that he would anyway.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But yeah, okay. The other news though, about Bryce Harper, reported by hometown paper the Philadelphia Inquirer. The headline is FanDuel sent a personal message from Philly star Bryce Harper to a customer with a gambling addiction. And this is a man named Terry Thompson who's involved in a lawsuit against FanDuel for its predatory practices. I guess we could say allegedly, but I don't really feel the need to. But when it comes to this specific practice. But this guy lost millions of dollars after wagering many millions of dollars and obviously had a huge problem and was unable to control himself and just placed tons of micro bets and was egged on to do that, as happens with the high rollers at these big sports books or really the whales, because they can't afford to be high rollers. But the betting companies know that they're where the profits come from. And they'll be damned if they're going to let them delete those apps and put down those phones which are always at their fingertips. The VIP treatment and they get induced to gamble more. Not that he was about to stop, but this guy's life was coming apart. I mean, his house was foreclosed on, he was taking up multiple mortgages. He was seemingly suicidal by the end of this saga. And one small part of the treatment that he was afforded as a result of the money that he was spending here is that he got a little personalized cameo style message from Bryce Harper. And Bryce Harper does actual cameos. And it's unclear as we record still exactly what the provenance of this message was and how much Harper knew about it. There's a FanDuel logo on the video, a watermark, but Harper isn't wearing any FanDuel gear. But it is clear that he knew it was FanDuel related because the actual text of what he said it was about a 20 second video addressed to this gambler. And he says, hey, Terry, what's up, brother? Hey, man. Your host, Brittany, from Fanduel wanted to make sure your Thanksgiving was extra special. I'm sure she did. So I just wanted to hop on here and wish you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving. Tell the guy's son I said hello. I appreciate all the support through the years, and I just hope you have a great day. Enjoy it. I'm sure he did. And we'll see you soon. Bye. So that's that. But a lot of people were wondering, was this just ordered through Cameo and he just didn't even know it was FanDuel related? Well, clearly he knew there was a FanDuel connection here.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't know exactly what the terms were and what he was paid and what he knew about the recipient of this message. I'm going to guess that he didn't know all the details of FanDuel's VIP program or how problematic that can be and how this can prey on people who can't restrain themselves with gambling. I kind of doubt that. Yeah, he was aware of that or thinking of that. And for all I know, he was recording 15 different videos and this was just one of them. And someone sent him what to say and he did. Right. But we don't know exactly because the Phillies and MLB and Bryce Harper's agent, Scott Boris, who is normally quite talkative, all. No, commented the Inquirer when they inquired, as they do. So that's what we know. And obviously this doesn't look great for Harper, though. I kind of think that making Harper the headline is.

[Meg Riley]

I agree.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, it's. It's the wrong culprit. Right. It's the wrong.

[Meg Riley]

Right. Yeah. It's putting the emphasis on the wrong syllable, as it were.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. And I'm. I'm not questioning the journalism of the Enquirer putting Harper in the headline. It's a Philly paper. You want to get people to read this thing and maybe it makes this practice more visible. But yeah, Harper, not saying he bears no blame or culpability here, but this really, I think, puts the spotlight on the practice that these sports betting companies employ. Because to single out Harper now, as far as we know, as far as the inquire could determine, this isn't a common thing for athletes, or at least active athletes, to make this kind of FanDuel requested VIP, quote unquote, directed video. And so it is a little iffy to do that. But on the other hand, MLB and the Players association partner with FanDuel. This is one of the official sportsbook partners of MLB and by the way, also partnered with the Ringer Which I feel like I should probably disclose.

[Meg Riley]

Sure.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But, you know, the fact that the league is in bed with the sports books like this, I don't know whether Harper would have thought anything was untoward about doing this. And in the collective bargaining agreement, as the Inquirer noted, I'll quote from this piece, the CBA allows athletes to appear in advertisements or make personal appearances for casinos, racetracks or sportsbook companies so long as the ball players do not encourage betting on baseball. NFL players are prohibited from marketing or promoting any form of gambling under the league's current cba. And the NBA allows its players to own a passive ownership stake in sportsbook and prediction market companies, as we have seen with Giannis, et cetera. But really, I don't know that this was that out of line with what other players have done. There are other players who are spokespeople and pitch people for these companies. And I guess he wasn't explicitly encouraging betting on baseball, in fact.

[Meg Riley]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I don't think this particular. I would go with victim more so than vip, but problem gambler. I think he was more of a football fan or a big football better super bowl tickets were another one of his perks, slash temptation, slash gateway drugs. So I don't know how Harper ended up being the one tapped to do this, but yeah, I don't know that, that he actually crossed the letter of the law here or did anything that you could hold him accountable for because obviously this whole endeavor is to get people to bet.

[Meg Riley]

Right.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But he didn't really say anything specifically about betting or encouraging the guy to bet or anything. He basically just said, have a nice Thanksgiving and have a great day, you know, so, yeah, I don't think you can really ring him up on it. And while it is certainly distasteful, I think it's a symptom more so than. Yeah, let's single out Bryce Harper here.

[Meg Riley]

I tend to agree with that. My, my suspicion is that part of the reason that there was a no comment, even though I agree with everything that you just said, but I suspect that the reason they went that route is because there is ongoing litigation. And so they probably just don't want to add grist to the mill of whatever that suit is, which might be true, irrespective of his potential individual liability. I think that we, you know, we have seen other reporting around this practice.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah.

[Meg Riley]

From the sportsbooks, maybe not specifically having literally like the star first baseman of your local baseball team send someone a cameo style video, but there has been extensive reporting on the vip treatment and how persistent it can be, even in instances, and I don't know if it's true of this particular guy, but, you know, even in instances where the gambler in question has indicated to the sportsbook, hey, I have a problem and I'm trying to stop. Right. And they do not seem to care about that as a moral breaker that they would put on trying to get these people to gamble.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah. If you're out there doing their utmost to pull you back in.

[Meg Riley]

Right. And so, like, if I, if I were a professional athlete, just given the, the experience that pro athletes are having on the receiving end of, of gamblers, some of whom I'm sure are problem gamblers, others of whom might just be problem people, like, not the best sorts, I would want to have as much of a remove from it as I possibly could, if only to spare yourself having to engage with that space at all. Because we know how vile some of the messages that pro athletes get are when, like, bets go sideways for people because someone missed a free throw, someone blew a save, whatever the. The case may be, their parlay got blown up. And so I would want to have a distance from the entire enterprise. I don't know that this necessarily puts more of a spotlight on Harper for gamblers thinking about his performance, but I would just want to stay away from the whole thing. But I think the takeaway here is the same as it's been the other times we've talked about this, which is there was this, you know, rush into the space after the Supreme Court decision. There are varying sort of regulatory regimes on it, state to state, but in general, like, this is just an industry that, that seems wildly predatory. And, you know, I think you could make, I don't know if one can be sort of negligently predatory. Predatory probably requires a more active pursuit. Pursuit regardless. But like the simple act of being able to do it from your phone and the ease with which you can kind of get in the hole and not realize it because you're not at a physical sports book, I think is its own problem. But on top of that, yeah, if these are. If there are people who are committing large sums of money and losing. Right. Because that's the other part of the reporting around sort of the VIP high roller experience is that not universally, but in some instances, once people start winning with regularity, sportsbooks aren't interested in taking their bets anymore. Right. So I think that, you know, when you bring this, like, constellation of facts together, it's very easy to step back and say, this is this is an industry that is in need of very serious and sort of across the board regulation because the piecemeal nature of it is causing some real problems. And I still am unclear on some of the specifics. So like in, for instance, and I know that there are partners, partnerships between some of the tribal casinos in Washington and these larger sports books. But like, sports betting on your phone through one of the apps, like, isn't legal in the state of Washington, but because of the prediction markets, they're effectively taking bets on sports in all of those in all 50 states now. And the way you know that is because you can't get out of an MLB TV ad break without that guy yelling at you, literally yelling at you, that congratulations, now you can bet in all 50 states. And I love that particular commercial because he leads with exciting news from the sports betting world. And it's like. And it's not about a trade. And you're like, yeah, it's not about anything related to the actual quality of the product on the field, to the potential fates of the teams that you care the most about. No. We're excited to tell you that we have come up with another way to separate you from your money. And I know that there are plenty of people who enjoy sports betting. They enjoy betting generally, they enjoy gambling. They're able to do it in a way that isn't compromising to them. I don't think that there's like any stain on the moral character of people who like to, to gamble or play poker or do games, whatever. Like, I think that if you can do that in a way that's responsible, that's your business. I spend money on, on all kinds of stupid. I cannot wait, Ben. I'm gonna buy so much dumb all star stuff this week. I. If I can't find a fanatics plushie in a tricorn hat. I've said it before and I'll say it again, someone in Philly's PR is failing. Like, I want to be able to buy the fanatic. You should have a little hat, you know, and like, that's dumb. I'm a 40 year old woman. Do I need a fanatic? Like stuffy? Basically, no, I don't. But I'm gonna buy one if I find one, right? So people spit. Thank you. I don't think I'm gonna struggle. I really don't think it's gonna be that hard. But I don't want anyone to take away that. I think that like everyone who does this is like a bad person. I think These companies are bad, are populated by irresponsible people at the very least, because for every person who is able to put their phone down, not compromise their mortgage, not yell at their spouse, there are plenty of people who are finding themselves in really dire straits personally, whether it's their interpersonal relationships, their financial fortunes. And these companies are not only, you know, not indifferent to that, they are actively cultivating those most problem gamblers. Right. It would be like if we would think really badly of Anheuser Busch if they camped out outside of AA meetings. Right. We would find that scummy. We would find that to be sort of a violation of the social contract. And these companies just seem really indifferent to that. And I think it's destroying a lot of people's lives and, and, and leading the rest of us to get yelled at during ad breaks. Obviously a less dire consequence of their indifference, but an annoying one nonetheless.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yeah, yeah. And I don't know what Harper's personal stance on this stuff is because he's been pretty open about his Mormonism, and Mormonism tends to frown on gambling, as I understand it. But I don't know, I. I think it's not like he's named in this suit or anything.

[Meg Riley]

Sure.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It's really something where I hope that there is regulation of this practice because, yes, there are plenty of people who can gamble responsibly and enjoyably and in moderation. And that's fine. It's not for me. And yes, we're sort of resentful of being subjected to so much marketing around it, but fine. But it's this stuff. It's the really just ability to double down and just wring every last cent from these people more than every last cent. Just the horror stories that are out there and absolutely preying on these people when they're down. It's just terrible. And it's even worse in a sense, because if you actually can beat the house for any amount of time, then they limit you. And so if you're losing gobs of cash, then they are happy to keep getting you to fork that over to your detriment. But if you actually beat them at their own game and you prove that you're some sort of sharper, you even just get lucky for a while and resemble one well, then suddenly you find that your bets are restricted and then you can't bet much money anymore. So that's the sort of thing that I think that there has to be and hope that there will be some sort of regulation. Yeah. As well as maybe limiting who can promote these things, whether athletes are allowed to and how visible the advertising can be and during what times and which broadcasts. Because some other countries that legalize this stuff sooner and felt the effects sooner have taken some steps in that direction. Because the. The societal fallout from this, even if it is a small subset of people who end up in this sort of situation, the damage from that to them can be catastrophic. And not just to them, but lots of people in their orbits and in their lives. And it's a sizable enough group of people that various studies have shown that this is an actual societal ill, that this is having measurable harmful effects. And just ethically, morally just how can you justify. When you understand that someone has a problem like that and you're just their dealer, essentially, and you're just giving them more rope to hang themselves with while you are profiting from their financial demise? So it's bad. So I don't really hold Bryce Harper personally responsible for any of that, but the association here, it's just part of the larger umbrella of leagues being in bed with sportsbooks and that relationship being quite cozy. And yes, there are some lines that can't be crossed without consequence, and I kind of doubt this will be one of them. We will see. There was a report from the New York Post. Just a line here that says, and I quote, a source told the Post that Harper is not affiliated with FanDuel Sportsbook and that the content creation company Cameo, which worked with FanDuel to have this video made for the underwater betting client. And that's where the sentence ends, even though that is not a grammatically complete or correct sentence.

[Meg Riley]

Wait, that's the sentence?

[Ben Lindbergh]

That's the sentence.

[Meg Riley]

Oh, woodies.

[Ben Lindbergh]

But I think the sentiment there is that a source told the Post that this was maybe part of Cameo and that, yeah, maybe fanduel ordered this through Cameo and he was just reading a script. Obviously, he said the word fanduel. He knew it was for someone at fanduel, but perhaps did not understand the specifics or just thought, you know, like, oh, this, this is a customer, and they get gifts and stuff. Not knowing the extent to which these companies will go.

[Meg Riley]

Yeah, I mean, I doubt. Look, I'm sure you have the ability to. To refuse to record particular messages. I'm not super familiar with the precise terms of service for Cameo. I doubt this is the most unhinged thing that Bryce Harper's ever had to say Cameo video before. I mean, not if you don't know that the. That the person on the receiving end of it is Someone who's suffering from gambling addiction. Like, it's a pretty benign message. It's, have a good Thanksgiving. You know, you throw in the nice line for the. The guy's kid. Like, I'm sure. I wouldn't be surprised if it. It. It struck him as a perfectly fine thing to do. And he didn't necessarily have. I mean, I'm sure he had no way of knowing. Well, I guess I'm not sure, but I would. I would hazard that he. He doesn't. He didn't have any way of knowing the precise amount of money this guy was wagering the contours of his relationship with fanduel. Yeah, I don't know. Like, I think that there was a moment in the early going when the decision came down from the Supreme Court and the. The proliferation of sports betting on phones started, where these companies maybe had some amount of plausible deniability. I think that these apps were engineered in a way that is meant to make them sticky, right? That is meant to keep you on them and keep you betting. But the precise interaction between, you know, an individual person's brain chemistry and that app and the sports of it all, like, sure, maybe they didn't have an understanding of the particulars. And it's probably still an understudied interaction when it comes right down to it. But at this point, like every study we've seen on the effects of sports betting, whether it involves individuals who might be sort of clinically described as addicts or just, you know, betters who bet a lot but perhaps haven't crossed that threshold, it just. It's devastating. It raises bankruptcy rates. It raises domestic violence rates. As soon as these apps make their way into states and the practice is legalized to do it on your phone, it just. It's socially corrosive. And we know enough now, and they probably know a lot more because I'm sure that one of their great projects is trying to keep you on these devices and these apps as much as they can, just like every other app designer, but with, like, a greater social ill associated with it. So, yeah, I don't know. I just. I hope that this guy is getting the help that he needs. I hope that, you know, everybody who is sort of grappling with this, whether they're the gambler themselves or like you said, the people sort of in their social orbit, you know, I hope that people have resources available to them, but I suspect that they are, you know, sort of pale in comparison into the scale of the problem. So not good.

[Ben Lindbergh]

It is kind of Uncanny how Bryce Harper always ends up becoming the main character though.

[Meg Riley]

What reminds me. What. What year was this message recorded? Do we know the precise year? Because I was gonna say he looks very raw milky in this particular video. Although, you know, he might have just been tired. We'll. We'll allow that possibility.

[Ben Lindbergh]

I believe late 2024.

[Meg Riley]

Okay, well, you're. You're maybe in the raw milk, but does he have all of his blood, you know, it all in there? We don't know.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Who knows? His decision making may have been compromised

[Meg Riley]

because you never know how much blood there is circulating around in that guy. Although, as we have said, he looks like someone who is drinking just totally normal pasteurized milk at this point. He looks good to go.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes. Okay, well, I guess regrettably but appropriately, this is where we cut off the episode for non Patreon supporters. But look folks, that's how we afford not to record these kinds of messages on a sports podcast.

[Meg Riley]

Although we will remind everyone that if you become a Patreon supporter, one of the tiers has us benefit these types of videos. Although we will not induce you to gamble. We. We mostly just end up either congratulating people on graduations or announcing the order of their fantasy drafts.

[Ben Lindbergh]

Yes, that'll do it. For the free preview of today's Effectively Wild, thank you for listening. If you'd like to listen on and hear whatever wisdom and wit away, we would love to have you. You can visit patreon.com effectivelywild to access the rest of this episode and plenty of other exclusive content. Weekly subscriber only episodes, monthly bonus shows, our discord group, our livestreams. Either way, we will be back with another episode soon which will appear in full on this feed. Until then, we wish you well and thank you for your support of Effectively Wild. Whatever form it takes.