Effectively Wild Episode 2505: Game Recognize (All-Star) Game

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2505: Game Recognize (All-Star) Game
Date: July 15, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (A) & Meg Rowley (B)

---

Episode Overview

This episode of Effectively Wild focuses on the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia—its Netflix broadcast, new format, the unique Philly energy, and especially Jordan Walker’s dramatic victory. The hosts also delve into All-Star selection trends, MLB labor negotiations, discussions about major leaguers in the 2028 Olympics, and late-breaking team trends heading into the second half.

---

Key Topics & Insights

1. Home Run Derby: Broadcast, Format, and Atmosphere

[00:42–32:00]

Netflix’s Broadcast: Clunky but Streamlined

• Hosts’ Experiences: Ben watched from home, Meg attended in person.
• Netlfix’s handling got off to a rough start (late, overlong intros, “self-promotional” stunts with Netflix show tie-ins) [03:18].
• “That was all annoying. That was all extremely Netflix, which is self-promotional and trying to be really big tent...that part was not great.” — Ben, [03:18]
• Format visually simpler than ESPN/Statcast: Distance shown, little extra data clutter, no split screens, focus on the action.
• Main broadcast flaw: Missing some swings/home runs for crowd shots or cinematic pans. “You have one job. It’s a home run derby. Show me the home runs.” — Ben, [04:32]
• Ben and Meg both preferred the “swings” format versus prior time-based models, allowing each homer to breathe and players to avoid exhaustion.

On the Ground in Philly: The Real Energy

• Meg: Event felt energetic, lively, very “Philly”—crowd both enthusiastic and traditionallly enthusiastic booers [01:00, 18:17].
• Location of press box in ballpark lauded (“tip of my tricorn hat to the Phillies for the location of their oxbox”) [07:17].
• Crowd’s booing: Yankees (esp. Ben Rice), Mets supporters, non-Philly players—good-natured and “distinctly Philly.” [18:17, 26:31]
• “I think the booing was great. It situated this derby in a particular place in a way that...is unusual for a derby.” — Meg, [26:31]

Format: From Gimmicks to Genuine Drama

• Swings-not-time format enhanced drama, let home runs “land” [07:17].
• Crowd helped move event along, “discouraged even more rampant taking” (waiting for perfect pitch) [21:25].
• Final swing was a true highlight: Jordan Walker's run of six consecutive HRs to win after initially trailing Schwarber [25:54].
• “That was the best possible ending and most dramatic demonstration of the potential of the last swing.” — Ben, [26:02]

The Booing: A Philly Tradition

• Booing was contextually appropriate, celebrated as playful and a unique marker of Philly sports culture [26:31–32:00].
• Non-Philly players generally understood the vibe and played along; “good-natured, not mean-spirited. It wasn’t J.D. Drew.” — Ben, [30:06]
• Contreras leaned into the “heel” role, Ben Rice took it in stride [30:41].
• “I do think that fans...are fanatical about their guys, and that is the place from which they are often booing.” — Meg, [27:47]

---

2. The Derby’s Field, Stakes, & Narrative

[34:09–39:41]

• Jordan Walker’s win: A rare righty/under-the-radar success in a lefty-favored park and field [34:09].
• “He appeared to be completely laid back...hoped it would inspire black kids who were watching and maybe get them back into baseball.” — Ben, [34:09]
• Derby as “coming out” event for players of lesser national profile [37:09].
• The mix of established stars & new faces is healthy for the event’s narrative.
• Format perceived as a “happy medium” (fewer, but meaningful HRs, less exhaustion than previous time-based formats).

---

3. Broadcast/Format Miscellany & Future Tweaks

[42:36–46:18]

• High praise for Walker’s walk-off, the final swing mechanic’s late payoff.
• Demand for tweaks: possibly shortening the event; show leaderboard more often, not every stat per swing.
• “I do expect...there will be a drumbeat that builds for changes because...it never stays the same.” — Ben, [42:36]
• Acknowledgment that keeping things fresh may trump nailing down a “perfect” format.

---

4. All-Star Selection Trends: WAR and the Modern All-Star

[49:05–56:00]

• More weight than ever placed on current-season (first-half) performance—especially by WAR—when selecting All-Stars; this is more pronounced for pitchers than position players [49:05].
• “It is becoming more and more dependent on first half performance and specifically first half WAR.” — Ben, [49:05]
• For position players, 87% of decision weight given to current season’s WAR in 2020s vs. 69% in the 1990s.
• Discussion of borderline/fluke All-Stars versus top rookies who have “no track record but obvious talent” (ex: Kevin McGonigle, Munetaka Murakami, Jordan Walker) [53:26].

---

5. MLB Labor Update: CBA Negotiations & Olympic Wrangles

[57:29–80:48]

CBA (Collective Bargaining) Tone-Setting

• Separate but back-to-back MLBPA (Bruce Meyer) & commissioner (Rob Manfred) press Q&A sessions at the BBWAA meeting [57:29].
• Key issue: MLB owners want a salary cap/floor system (akin to other sports), presenting it as “what fans want.” Union deeply opposed, sees no negotiating path forward until cap is off the table [57:29].
• “Until the cap piece of it is removed from the discussion, there’s no moving forward...You can’t have any agreement until the two sides are operating within the same set of constraints in reality, and right now they just aren’t.” — Meg, [65:09–66:03]
• Sides remain at impasse; “we’re absolutely nowhere” (quoting The West Wing) [66:03].

“Competitive Balance” Rhetoric vs. Standings Reality

• Manfred: Repeatedly cited “competitive balance” as necessary for fans’ hope and revenue growth [68:03].
• “How can you say that fans don’t have hope?” — Ben, [69:01], referencing the mix of current small-market contenders.

2028 Olympics: MLBers’ Participation

• MLB wants an extended July break for All-Star Game & Olympics, with major leaguers required to play for USA and other national teams. [73:13–82:52]
• Union opposes mandatory participation, threat of being placed on restricted list/unpaid for declining [73:13].
• Negotiations touch on hotel rooms, insurance, NIL rights—most importantly, player rights and injuries.
• Meg wonders if compulsion is necessary given recent enthusiasm for WBC [78:22].

---

6. All-Star Camaraderie & Baseball Culture Moments

[83:24–86:53]

• Joy of All-Star week: “seeing all the All Stars just hang out in this exhibition setting...lounging on the field...with their families and little kids” [83:24].
• Notable friendship: Ceddanne Rafaela & Pete Crow-Armstrong mutually declared each other their “favorite player” [85:45].
• Observational fun: Randy Arozarena almost missing team photo, Jesus Luzardo’s cheerleading for Phillies.

---

7. Team Trends: Red Sox Surge, A’s Plummet

[86:53–98:17]

Red Sox: From Flailing to Contending

• Nine-game winning streak, up 26.4% in playoff odds in July [86:53].
• Fourth-best run differential in AL; strong defense and improved offense/rookie pitching [93:00–97:25].
• "I might even take the over on [40% playoff odds] at this stage." — Ben, [93:16]

Athletics: Park Woes & Pitching Troubles

• Nine-game losing streak, -16.6% playoff odds, fired long-tenured pitching coach Scott Emerson [86:53–91:20].
• Stark home vs. road splits; pitching especially awful at home park in West Sacramento [89:37].
• “They have no margin for error on the pitching side,” — Meg, [91:20], city/ballpark and future outlook discussed.

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On missing swings in the Netflix broadcast:
  “It’s a home run derby. Show me the home runs.” — Ben, [04:32]
• On crowd booing:
  “The booing was great. It situated this derby in a particular place in a way that...is unusual for a derby.” — Meg, [26:31]
• On the Derby’s unique drama:
  “Walker hit homers on his last, what, six swings? ...That was the best possible ending and most dramatic demonstration of the potential of the last swing.” — Ben, [25:54–26:02]
• On the state of CBA talks:
  “Every time you hear from either side, it becomes clear that...there’s no moving forward. Right. Because you have one side...retain the basic structure we have now...and then you have one side that is trying to fundamentally upend that system.” — Meg, [66:03]
• On current All-Star selection:
  “It is becoming more and more dependent on first half performance and specifically first half WAR.” — Ben, [49:05]
• On the joy of All-Star week friendships:
  “They just declare each other their respective favorite players. Like, which is so cool.” — Ben, [85:45]
• Red Sox revival:
  “I might even take the over on [40% playoff odds] at this stage.” — Ben, [93:16]

---

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:42–32:00 — Home Run Derby broadcast, format, atmosphere, booing
• 32:00–42:36 — Player narratives, field mix, effects on Derby drama
• 42:36–46:18 — Format tweaks, future of the event, Derby legacy
• 49:05–56:00 — All-Star selection trends, WAR, rookie/stars discussion
• 57:29–80:48 — MLB CBA negotiations, salary cap, fan hope, Olympic player participation
• 83:24–86:53 — All-Star player camaraderie, best-buds moments
• 86:53–98:17 — Red Sox hot streak, A's struggles, team trajectories

---

Tone & Style

The discussion is characteristically insightful, lightly irreverent and detail-rich, with Meg and Ben riffing on broadcast nitpicks, stadium oddities, fan behavior, and the emotional beats of All-Star week. The tone is warm, accessible, and wry, full of both granular stat talk and affectionate, insiderish observations of major league culture.

---

For Further Reading/Worth Checking

• Neil Payne’s All-Star selection WAR research [49:05]
• Jeff Passon’s piece on Olympics/MLB negotiations [73:13]
• Leo Morgenstern’s “year of the lefty”—FanGraphs [34:09]
• Pete Abraham’s article on Ceddanne Rafaela & Pete Crow-Armstrong [83:24]

---

Summary prepared for listeners who missed the episode or want a detailed record of the key topics, opinions, and memorable moments.

Transcript

[A]

I want to know about baseball. I want to know about every single team. I want to know about stats, fan graphs and about.

[B]

Oh, oh, oh, Tony. I'm a very modern fan, reading up on all the analytics. I want to know about baseball.

[A]

Presented by Patreon supporters. Hello and welcome to episode 2505, Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs, presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer, joined by Meg Riley of fangraphs from Philly. Hello, Meg.

[B]

Hello.

[A]

Good derby. I think at least from afar, we spectated in different ways, different capacities, we might have different opinions. So I was watching from afar. I can provide my perspective on the Netflix of it all and. And you were in the park on the scene.

[B]

I was, yeah. I am fascinated by your experience of it watching on TV because, you know, one tries to be engaged and present when one is, I think lucky enough is a good way to describe it, to be at these things in person. It's a part of my job that I certainly don't take for granted. But I had an eye trained on, on Blue sky at points during the derby and I felt as if, at least in my limited little slice, which certainly plays a role, you know. What slice? What slice? I saw that there was a real divide between the in person experience of the derby, which seemed energetic and largely. Well, I was going to say positive. I don't know if that quite does justice to the Philly crowd and their booing proclivities, but enthusiastic, lively, it seemed like people were enjoying themselves. That doesn't run across purposes. Was saying that Philly fans were booing. If anything, it just suggests that they are being themselves. Then there were the folks online who seemed to have some notes both about the format of the event and the broadcast itself. So what, what were your takeaways?

[A]

Yeah, I saw some differing opinions online too. I didn't pay that close attention. I was trying to come to my own conclusions, but I think people had the knives out for Netflix, no pun intended, just because it's not a normal baseball broadcaster. We saw with the opening night broadcast that Netflix was not experienced, clearly not polished. Baby didn't know how to do a baseball broadcast. And so with the format change change with the streamer that was hosting this, I think a lot of people were prepared for it to be bad and it got off to a rough start. So for one thing, it got off to a late start and I know that the festivities started at seven officially, I guess with a preview show or something. I did not Tune in for that. You're not gonna get me to tune in for a Home Run Derby pregame show.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So that started at 7 Eastern. I tuned in at 8 Eastern, which was when I thought it was actually starting. It did not start then. It started about half an hour after that. So they squeezed in all the introductions and everything there. And that was pretty protracted. And you had Michael Buffer for whatever reason, and you had a boxing ring set up, and you had the stars of the upcoming Netflix show the Hawk, which is basically like a live golf kind of comedy. And that was all bad. That was all annoying. That was all extremely Netflix, which is self promotional and trying to be really big tent appeal to anyone and everyone as opposed to Baseball Die Hards. And that part was. Was not great because they had Luke Wilson and Will Ferrell and Jimmy Tatro set up on the sidelines, basically just doing commentary as the guys were coming out. And it was painfully unfunny and just like super scripted and weird and hard to hear too, because Bu was announcing everyone at the same time that they were trying to do comedic banter. And so all of that rough start, I think.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But once it actually got going, I thought it was fine. And I thought the format was good. I thought I still had some quibbles about the broadcast, which is, namely that they did just miss some swings sometimes, which was quite, quite annoying. It's like you have one job. It's a home run derby. Show me the home runs.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And they kept doing all these sort of cinematic pans, and let's look at the crowd and let's focus on the pitcher for some reason, to the exclusion of actually missing the pitches. Sometimes, like when they would introduce the pitcher, they would just have an image of that guy there and the chiron. And then like, you would miss a pitch or two, or they would show the flight of the ball. They didn't do split screen, for better or worse. So sometimes they would show the end of the flight of the ball, and then there would be kind of a quick pitch and you'd make. Maybe miss the start of the next swing, that sort of thing. So that would be my main note for next time, is that we want to see the dingers and we want to see the swings. So do whatever you can to actually show us every single swing. That doesn't seem like too much to ask. Beyond that, though, I thought it was kind of refreshingly uncluttered. And I guess on past broadcasts on espn, there were maybe multiple broadcasts.

[B]

Right?

[A]

There was sort of the statcast version, but there was a lot of statcast stuff even on the main version. And there was the ticker at the bottom and there was lots of split screen and you were seeing studio people and you were seeing the swings and you were seeing the ball and there were so many stats and everything that I just, I felt like my view was extremely constrained and here it was pretty stripped down. It was just kind of one big picture. And I saw some people complaining about the fact that say they weren't showing exit VO and launch angle. It was pretty much just distance. And I got to say that's all I need. That's, that's all I want. In fact, in a home run derby, I don't need to see the exit speed and launch angle for every single ball. Like they're, they're home runs. They were hit hard, you know, Like, I don't need to know. Okay. If there's one that was particularly crushed, I guess that would be nice to know. But I don't need to see the exit velo and angle for every single one. I just want to see what, where the ball went. And if it was a homer, I can assume that it had kind of a typical home run caliber exit speed and launch angle. And distance. Distance is useful and they were showing distance most of the time, so it was kind of uncluttered and, and I actually appreciated that. I really didn't need any more stats than I saw there.

[B]

Yeah, I think that there's likely no perfect format. Right. You're making, you're going to make a trade off somewhere in the whole situation. But I greatly prefer the swings to time model.

[A]

Yeah, me too.

[B]

Because you are able to, and this is true, I think both in the ballpark and on tv, you're just able to have a much greater appreciation for each individual home run when you have a certain number of swings because they're spaced out in a way that allows them to land and really be sort of taken in as opposed to the timing format where it's just like dinger after dinger after dinger after dinger and. Yeah, and that has something to recommend it, right, because you, you get these like really dramatic little runs that guys would go on. But I also think that you, you saw guys tire themselves out often. Right. It would have this sort of deleterious knock on effect in later rounds because, you know, like I think of some of Julio Rodriguez's home run derby performances where you're like, this guy's just spent because he had such a bananas first round. You Know, I think that we've seen that sort of over the years. So having to take a beat to really like appreciate what all was going on was nice. I think having a more sort of spare presentation to the scoreboard which like we, we saw that in, in ballpark that yeah, there was just a lot less information. And I think having the option when you're watching from home to pop over to the more statcast based broadcast like that, I, I think there's a place for that. But I, I agree with you. I don't think it's an event that really requires much in the way of overcomplication or even that much in the way of measurement because the base appeal of the Home Run Derby is dinger go far, you know, and I think having some quantification to exactly how far is cool. But you, you don't really need a lot of guidance in terms of was it hit hard or not. All those balls are getting destroyed. You know, like it's, this is a field of guys who, who can wallop the baseball. So I quite enjoyed it. You know, the location of the auxiliary press box for this game. And I just, I have to compliment. I know no one cares about how much the media likes the oxbox. I appreciate that this is a niche interest and can seem kind of navel gazy, but my tip of my tricorn hat to the Phillies for the location of their oxbox is they, they put it sort of out in the, the left field stance. And it's always nice when it's like taking advantage of actual Ste stadium seating. So you have a real, you have a real seat. Got a good, a good solid, a good solid plank for, for sitting on the WI Fi was a little inconsistent, but there's not much doing on that. Like that happens every year. Monitors at convenient distances. Good on you Phillies. Now I did one whack my knee getting into my seat with, with the force of a Jordan Walker home run. But that was user error. I can't, I can't blame the fanatic for that. That's, that's on Meg. Right. But where we were sitting meant that for this derby which had a lot of the action getting peppered out to the left field stands. Boy, what a, what a view we had. And really got to appreciate the value of, of that sort of line drive home run swing, you know, and there were some big beautiful arching home runs. There was certainly diversity of home run in terms of the arc and distance, but really got to enjoy that. Although I had my intrusive thought Further reinforced, which is I just need people to be less leany over the edges in that first row. You can be more careful, please, because I can't help but visualize it. So, yeah, I quite liked it. I liked being able to appreciate where each one was falling. It adds a tension, and the clock can add a tension of its own, I suppose, but there's just something when the guy's down to his last swing. And not to jump ahead to the final round here, but watching the run that Jordan Walker went on to win it, it was thrilling. Like, it was just exhilarating because it looked like for a second, it was like, oh, you know, Schwarber's got this one in the bag. And. No, he didn't. He didn't. And then we could see. We could. We could see down behind. I think it's the visiting dugout. It was where his family was, and we could see the broadcast crew trying to get his family down on the field, which they were able to do. And then we got to hear from his dad. And it's just, you know, I'm a sucker for parents who are so obviously proud of their kids and just express it in such glowing and loving terms. And that's always so nice, and it means something to people. And anyway, I thought it was great. I am given to understand that there were some flaws in the Netflix broadcast, both in terms of the production and also the particulars of. Of some of the calls. I do think it is unsurprising that that would be true. We have talked about the ways in which the opening night broadcast was. You know, you didn't always feel like you were in steady hands. These are not people who are used to broadcasting baseball. I think it's a hard thing to thread the needle on. Like, I don't know, not everybody wants Chris Berman, you know.

[A]

Right. That's the thing. I saw. Saw a lot of people pining for Chris Berman. And this seems like nostalgia speaking to me. This seems like selective memory, because when we had Berman, a lot of people could not wait to be free of Berman, at least latter years Berman. It just. The shtick wore thin. So, okay, maybe you might want to bring back Berman after you've been deprived of Berman for years. But when we had him every year, really, the charm wore off because this is a long event. And so I saw some people complaining about how excited Veskurgen or Pence and Rizzo sounded. I think they were fine. I think they got the volume level up when it was required. You don't want to be at 100 volume level every single call, because there are a lot of home runs, you know, and so it's tough to stay at that level for three hours. You got to pace yourself a little bit. So I thought the commentary was fine. I appreciate pence. I'm very much in the target market for numbers and stats. And even so it was sort of overload for me in past derbies. And now we know. Okay, the. The top distance was a Junior Camino home run that went 491. And that was also the hardest hit, 116 miles per hour. Okay, I know that now. It wouldn't have enhanced things much for me to see that on every single swing and batted ball. I think maybe they could have shown a leaderboard a little more often, because if you were tuning in midstream, you wouldn't really have known. Okay, what are we shooting for here? What's the number to beat? Who's the leader in the clubhouse? And they were saying that stuff on the broadcast. But if you were muting the broadcast or you weren't paying close attention, might have helped to know what's the target that someone is aiming for. But I was watching the whole thing, so I had some sense of that wasn't really lost on me. So, yeah, I think the format was a win. And I think this kind of found the happy medium between not enough homers and too many homers because we've really seen a great range. I'm not suggesting we go back to the late 80s, early 90s, you know, the. The 1990 Derby at Wrigley where the American Leaguers hit one home run total. It was Mark McGuire. He didn't even do the. The Simpsons, do you want to see me suck a few dingers? He didn't even do that. He hit one dinger and then it was. Was like four to one. NL versus al. No one wants that. It's a home run derby. We want to see some home runs, obviously, but it maybe got a little out of hand in recent years. And so I think this was a nice middle ground because like last year in round one, the home run totals were 17, 21, 21, 20, 17, 16, 15, and 3.

[B]

Oof.

[A]

Jazz Chisholm Yankees not showing. Showing out in these derby performances. Ben Rice also bringing up the rear this year. But this year, 13, 10, 13 12, 9, 8, 8, 7. I kind of like that.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Because everything in moderation, even if it's a derby, I think it. Because it becomes kind of inherently repetitive and monotonous. It's Just three hours is a lot, you know, and, and in fact, I wouldn't be averse to shortening this whole event just because a certain point I'm like two hours in and I'm like. And obviously the, the finals ratchets up the stakes and everything. And we had this great dramatic ending, which was great, but really, at a certain point, okay, how many more bombs can I see here? The guys are getting physically tired. I'm psychologically feeling some fatigue. So I, I thought this was a pretty good middle ground because home runs are fun in part because of their rarity, at least in real games. Okay. It's, it's still something of a rare event and a meaningful, consequential event. And so if everyone's hitting 20 per round, then that's not so consequential and it's not so meaningful and it just becomes kind of repetitive. So I thought this was enough where you were counting the swings and, you know, would I, would I have fewer swings maybe in the first round? I like to see everyone get their exposure to the audience and, and get a chance to get into the groove is the other thing, because clearly there's some nerves going on and you kind of have to get used to the vibe and everything. And so if you burn a few swings early, then I like to see someone kind of get hot, catch fire mid round. So I could see an argument for keeping things where they are, but I wouldn't mind an even quicker event because three hours a. To ask.

[B]

Yeah. And I wonder, you know, I, I understand that you need to have a sizable enough field for it to really feel like a competition, but I, I do wonder if, because they go from eight to six, like, would there be a way for them to.

[A]

I don't know. Yeah.

[B]

The danger of the swing versus timed format is that you just have a lot more potential variability. And you had a bunch of takers. Yeah, a bunch of takers in this field. And we should talk about the booing because I have a. Speaking of takes, I have a take about this, but the Philly crowd booed Leslie. Yes, the Philly crowd booed all manner of things. They did not boo all things with equal enthusiasm. And I think the thing, well, the thing they booed the most was Ben Bryce, I guess by virtue of him being a Yankee. That was funny. The thing they booed the second most was any Mets fan who was shown on the Jumbotron. So there was that. And then I think tied, tied for third was any take offered by a non Phillies player at Any juncture. Right. Because you know, Contreras led off the event. He was the first hitter. And when he got down to his final swing in particular, he was, he was taking pitches because he wasn't, Benny wasn't seeing the ball he wanted. Right. Yeah. And the boos, they were profound.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

So. So there was that and then. And then of course there was the booing of, of failed outfield plays by. I said kids when I initially posted about this. And some of them were smaller children, but there were some grown ass adults out in that outfield last night. There were some college age looking. I mean no one looked. Well, no one looked like they were as old as I am. I wonder if they were concerned about the required physicality of the exercise. But I remember the, the people in the outfield shagging to. That's gonna sound weird in connection with the rest of this sentence. To be children, to be shagging the fly balls. That's all they're shagging. To be small children in most derbies, I feel like they had skewed younger in prior years. Now I cannot say that I have tried to discern the age of every single person who has ever participated in that exercise. So it could be that I'm under appreciating the past present of older relative to small folks in the outfield. But I just remember them. Part of it is that they have seemed so tiny. They've seemed small of stature in a way that suggests that they are little kids and sometimes they get hurt out there, they get hit and that's sad. But also a tradition, a proud one. No, we won't say that, but a tradition nonetheless. And so whenever there was like a misplay or even a play that the crowd decided they thought that person should make but didn't, there were definitely boos to be had.

[A]

There were some slick plays, There were some fine catches both by those shaggers and also by the fans. But I do think it was important that the crowd was into it in that way. It was kind of like pre step offs throws over restrictions when someone would just keep throwing over to first when a, a potential base dealer was on there and eventually you would just get booed if you were a visiting pitcher and that maybe helped move things along. There weren't usually more than say three or four takes in a row, so it wasn't super egregious. And some of these guys were kind of playing to the fans, hamming it up a little. Like Contreras was embracing his, his heel role, which made it more Fun. You know, no one seemed to mind. Everyone seemed to take that in stride and, and appreciate that if anything, and that added something both in the ballpark and on the broadcast because people were actually into it and they had a real rooting interest with Harper and Schwarber and all the non Phillies. But yeah, I think some of the booing may be discouraged even more rampant taking because that is the potential downside of this format that you just get slow rounds and guys waiting for the perfect pitch and that didn't happen so much. That didn't really bother me a whole lot here. And. And another nice thing about this format is that it places a lot less importance on the pitcher I think because that's always something that frustrates me about home run derbies is that it's not just a product of the hitter's performance, it's largely the pitcher's performance, especially when there's a timer and the clock's counting down. And I would always get upset because some pitchers were kind of lollygagging and they were just taking their time and it's like this is about speed, like the more swings, the more chances you have to hit homers. And these guys were sometimes pitching at a deliberate pace or they didn't have great command and they weren't putting it where the hitter wanted it. And that was always annoying. And then I always felt bad for them sometimes because they were screwing up the hitters game, especially if it was like their dad or something and maybe they were feeling the pressure. So this places a lot less importance on the pitcher because it's not so much about the pace of the deliveries and if the pitcher can't quite hit his spots, well, you can wait for. Yeah, so that's another virtue of this. And I didn't think anyone really abused the privilege. It wasn't like early in baseball history before there was a strike zone. The reason why there's a strike zone is the guys were just waiting forever for the perfect pitch and it became very boring to spectators. And that could potentially happen with this. But I think the fact that it's just an exhibition and it's kind of just for fun, obviously there's money at stake, but it's largely for fun. And you have fans raining boos down on you and yeah, I think they were louder. I seem to recall maybe some booing at least of, of screw ups in the outfield by fans attempting to shag balls or. But I, I don't remember it being quite this loud or the boos for non Home players being quite this loud, and that was very odd brand for Philly, obviously, and. And that helped sort of situate it in a particular park, in a particular place, and also added to the stakes and the spectator entertainment value. So I think it. It really worked out for Netflix in the end, just because you end up with this dramatic Schwerber versus Walker battle. And it comes down to that final swing or swings, because largely the final swing gimmick was kind of a dud for most of the night. And it's. It seemed like that was maybe because the ball was a different color for that last swing, which in principle sounds kind of clever to differentiate it, but it didn't really show up that well on the broadcast. It was kind of hard to notice. But for the hitters, it actually did seem to disrupt them. They would all take a pitch or two to get acclimated to the new color. And then it. It seemed like maybe they were kind of icing themselves by doing that or maybe putting extra pressure on themselves. So switching the ball color when those guys were in a groove seemed to be counterproductive until the very end when that gimmick paid off. Not necessarily the fact that the ball was a different color, but just the fact that you're down to your. Your last swing, and you can keep it going. And Walker hit homers on his last, what, six swings?

[B]

I think six in a row.

[A]

Yeah, to get the walk off. And he. He needed to. He was, what, three behind Schwarber when he was down to his last swing, and then he hit.

[B]

That's right.

[A]

Four in a row. And. And you could kind of see Schwerber getting nervous because Walker just seemed to have found the range there. And. And so that added some real drama, and that sort of sold that aspect of the format at the very end. That was the best possible ending and most dramatic demonstration of the potential of the last swing. Keeps going. So it's sort of sudden death at that point. And that really raised the stakes. So that was fun.

[B]

I thought that the booing. I know that there were people who. Who thought that it didn't play. And look, I'm. I'm saying this in a mostly complimentary way. And then the little bit of it that isn't complementary is respectful fear. Okay, everybody, let's be on the same page about. About this. So I think the booing was great. Yeah. I thought it situated this derby in a particular place in a way that, you know, is unusual for a derby. Now, I don't think that derby's Feeling somewhat anonymous in terms of the locale is really all that much of a detriment to the. To the event. Like, I don't sit here and wish that every derby wasn't Coors so that we could say, like, oh, well, you know, the. The rocky outcropping in center fields, Although, you know, they had vegetation in center at Citizens bank, too. But I thought that it made it so obviously, and specifically Philly.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

It was received in the perfect way by the non Philly players.

[A]

Yeah. When Contreras came out, when he was being introduced, he was, like, putting his hand up to his ear. You know, he was kind of egging them on. Yeah.

[B]

Yes. Like, let's hear it. Let's go. You know, I thought that Ben Rice was like, a. Was a good sport about it because, boy, were people really committed to. To booing him. I do think that people, the non Philly players, were briefly mystified, but they largely, like, you know, they egged on the crowd in the right spots. They didn't seem to get huffy or defensive about it. And so it was this perfect interplay between, you know, feisty Philly crowd and visiting player. It wasn't universally negative vibe to be had there. Right. Like, a lot of these guys were very impressive. Like, Contreras looked great. Caminero looked great. Like, people were thrilled by their big home runs. And I think, in a way that feels very Philly. Like, I think the fact that, you know, Michael Bauman had this observation, and I tend to agree with him that, like, the way that Contreras was willing to sort of, like, play the heel a little bit there, the next time he plays in Citizens Bank, I bet he will get kind of a friendly reception because he understood the brief. Right. I thought that it made it very distinctly Philly when Walker won. I'm sure that if Schwaber had managed to stick it out, it would have been thrilling for the home crowd. But it wasn't like he won and then he got booed off the field or anything like that. I thought that everybody kind of understood their role. Philly fans knew that there was perhaps an expectation that they would be a little bit sassy. Yeah. And I think that, you know, when you look at some of the quotes that all of those guys gave after the fact, like, they. They properly situated the response, where I think it lies, which is like, Philly fans are fanatical about their guys, and that is the place from which they are often booing. Now, if there had been a met in the field, Been a little different. So, you know, there before the grace of God goes Pete Alonso. But, but. And it was funny when they were doing the montage of past winners and Alonzo came up as a Met.

[A]

Yeah. If Soto had been there or something, then maybe it would have been a bit different. But. Yeah, that's, that's good because you could read the room better than I could because you were in it. And I, I thought it was sort of good natured. It. It was playing and it was a bit basically. And they really did want their guys to win. But it felt good. Spirited, not mean spirited. It wasn't J.D. drew. No one was. Was getting pelted with batteries or anything. It was, it was fine. It was, you know, I guess you could say it wasn't the best sportspersonship or something, but I, I thought it was perfectly fine and fun.

[B]

I thought it was fine. I thought that it was fine. And again, it, like, it helped to, to situate it. We want these events to be a reflection of the city in which they take the place. And like, this is part of the tradition in Philly. Right. And you know, and it's, it's a tradition that has gone through rounds of, of myth making. You know, the degree to which they are quite so negative is, Is perhaps overstated. And some of the, you know, the battery stuff has kind of gone through.

[A]

Yeah, there's some urban legends, apocrypha, Santa stuff.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. And so, you know, I, I don't mean to say that like, and I don't mean to say that Philly fans are all one way and they will dish it out to their own guys. So I guess there's some honor among booers, as it were. But I do think that it is like part of the, the vibe and the tradition here. I think part of too, why I appreciated it is that, you know, a lot of the sort of pomp and circumstance and regalia around this All Star Game is being in a funny way, sort of abstracted away from the city of Philadelphia. Right. There's all this America 250 stuff. You sort of feel like the All Star Game is happening on the 4th of July. And some of that is obviously very deeply rooted in Philadelphia. So I don't mean to say that that is entirely removed from the spirit of the city, but the way that that stuff is being positioned is much more star spangled. And so I think it's good to have a reminder that, you know, some of these, some of these Philly fans are, you know, this is, this is The John. How's it work?

[A]

Yeah. Anyway, I, I'm glad that everyone did decently enough that I didn't have to feel bad for them, because I do kind of pity when players just get skunked or can barely get one over the fence and.

[B]

Yeah. Ben Rice, what's going on? What's going on? And I will say, say. I will say the Phillies who participated, I mean, it wasn't everybody's best day.

[A]

Yeah, it wasn't.

[B]

And I was briefly worried that we would end up with. I think it was good for, for the energy of the event, both in the ballpark and, and I imagine how it played on tv. Like, I wouldn't have wanted there to have been an assured place for a Philly in the final. Like that would have been nonsense. It needs to be a real competition. But I think good to have Schwaber in the, in the finals. Right. Because it does sort of amp up the home crowd. And yeah, there was, you know, there was some, some real variability there.

[A]

Yeah, I always imagine, yeah. Someone who just doesn't quite have the right stroke. And it's tough because sometimes they're like ripping line drives into the gap or something. And that's what you usually want to do. That's a good hit. But here it's an abject failure. And I'm just. I always imagine them being like, this never happens to me, I swear.

[B]

But yeah, it is funny. I am, I'm revealing myself perhaps to have at least a little bit of the, the guy in the famous tweet, like saying, shut the up. I'm calculating when probability added where I was like, wow, you know, some, some good, like double strokes here, like count for something. You should get like a, a quarter of a home run. I'm like, peg, shut up. That's not the purpose of this event at all.

[A]

There's some performance anxiety. You're just the sole focus and you have to hit that ball over the fence. It's a lot of pressure. And I like that Walker won. He was certainly an underdog both in terms of his career accomplishments entering this competition. As we said, it was not the most star studded field ever. And you did have a few guys who were first time participants or guys who were fairly early in their career or really in their first season as a Home Run derby caliber hitter. And someone like Jack Caglion or Jordan Walker, who until this year it was an open question whether he would ever get the ball over the fence enough to be a productive player. And boy, the raw power that he showed just that smooth, sweet stroke. That was great. Yeah. And he was an underdog because this was a very lefty heavy event. Five of the eight guys were lefties. Which was the most left handers in a home run derby since 2013 when Bryce Harper was a participant. He's been around that long. And, and actually in the All Star game, I think 11 of the starters are left handed hitters, which is the most in a single All Star game. And, and Leo Morgenstern declared this the year of the left handed hitter at Fan Grass last month, which we discussed on the pod. So this is a very lefty heavy year. You would not have expected Jordan Walker to be the one to break through. And it's a park that favors left handed hitters and sluggers too. Just in terms of the park factor, I think a lot of people were expecting that this would be a lefty because of Citizens bank. And, and also Kyle Schwaber is just on this earth to hit homers. So like, you know, I, I just sort of thought Schwerber winning was inevitable at a certain point because I just. He's just a machine when it comes to that. And so for Walker to make that comeback was. Was great. And I was thinking maybe it would have been good for him to go first in the final because there was the whole rust versus rest conversation and long layoffs. And then once Schwaber had a pretty good round and the whole park was pulling for him. The pressure's really on Walker at that point and he seemed to really thrive on it. And he appeared to be completely laid back. I mean, he was pretty pumped, but he didn't appear to be unnerved by the moment whatsoever. His whole family was there. He had the Griffey Jr. Style throwback backward cap going on. He talked after he won about how he hoped it would inspire black kids who were watching and maybe get them back into baseball. Plus obviously he had significant incentive. Much more so than Schwaber monetarily too, because he made a million bucks for winning this thing. That is considerably more than his salary for this season. So he had a lot at stake both financially and in terms of prestige and bragging rights. And he appeared to be pretty pleased that he.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That he won this thing.

[B]

I think that you're right that we talked about the sort of relative Q rating of the field compared to prior years. And I, you know, you want. I think it's nice when there's a mix of guys, right. When there are guys who both have a long history of Participation in the derby so that you have some sort of through lines to prior years and competitions. And I. I think having some. Some big, big stars is important to. To the exercise. But as we have seen, like, this really can be sort of a national coming out for guys where players who are stars to us, guys who we know and who their local fan base might be really familiar with, but who might have less of a national profile, it can really alter the trajectory of their place in the game. There is something that is just like, very satisfying from a narrative perspective for this guy who was viewed as something of a failed prospect, had not really been able to write the ship. Has this terrific first half on a team that wasn't thought to be going anywhere this year by design and is outperforming relative to preseason expectation. He's right at the center of that. He's finally paying off being the kind of hitter who he was thought to be when he was coming up as a prospect. And then for him to sort of be able to put this cherry on top of his first half, I think it's just a really cool and special thing. And you want. I think you just, you want to mix year to year. You know, we. We talk about this in the context of the. Of postseason play, where I think it's good for there to be years where, like, the Blue Chippers win the World Series because those teams have huge fan bases, they put a lot of time and money into their clubs, and then you want there to be years where there are surprises. Having that kind of sort of back and forth is, to me, suggestive of a healthy and sort of vibrant ecosystem in the game. And so, yeah, like, it is cool that the guy who wasn't necessarily thought to be the favorite ended up winning the thing and doing it in dramatic fashion. And when, you know, when Schwarber got up there to hit first, we were all talking in the oxbox. We were like, oh, I can't believe that they're not letting him go second. But in terms of the way that it built narrative momentum for the way Walker's round unfold unfolded, like, it ended up being kind of perfect in a way you wouldn't have been able to predict, because he knew exactly how many he needed, and so did everybody else.

[A]

He knew the number that he needed exactly.

[B]

And so we all sit there and we're all, you know, is he going to be able to pull this off? He has so few swings left, and, you know, every take is getting booed and every fly ball that falls short of the wall is getting cheered and it ended up, I think, culminating in something very dramatic. And so, yeah, there's certainly, I think every year it's worth the powers that be sort of engaging with the parts of the format that work well and the parts that could perhaps stand to improve. But at least in the ballpark, I thought it was a really great event and I had a ton of fun. It's been the thing that, as I have again been fortunate enough to sort of go to a bunch of these in a row that I have just been consistently surprised with how much I enjoy the Derby. Like, I really, it's a really good time, man. And I know that it is. It's in a particular place. The tickets are expensive in that place. But I think it's the sort of thing where if you, you know, Chicago is next year, the Cubs are Hosting in, in 2027, assuming we have a season. And you know, if you are in the Chicagoland area and you look into a ticket to one of these events, like it's worth going. Also a, a bit of another dry corn hat tip and Ben, I gotta send you. I, I have a mug now that's. It's Ben Franklin's head. It's just Ben Franklin's head. He's wearing a tricorn hat. It's got a little All Star Game logo on it. It's. It's precious to me already. I'm looking at it across the hotel room right now. It's in bubble wrap because it's got to come home in one piece. It is enormous. I have no idea where I'm going to put this thing. It's just going to have to live in the dish drainer because it's not going to fit amongst the other mugs in the cabinet. There's no room for it. I got a little, I got a, I got a hat with the Fanatic on it in a couple of spots. I haven't yet been able to find a plushie of the Fanatic with a tricorn hat. But if I don't find one because of the Ben Franklin mug, I'm, it's okay. I'm going to, I'm going to be satisfied from a merch perspective. But a tip of the cap to the city planners of Philadelphia who made SEPTA free after the after the Derby so that folks could take public transit back to their hotels in Center City. So if you are going, I don't know if this will even go up before the All Star Game tonight, but if it does and you are going to the All Star Game. I imagine that the same rules will be in effect this evening, and it certainly spared a portion of the fangraph's crew a very long wait for a lift back to the hotel. So just ride those rails. You know, they're free.

[A]

All right, well, congrats to Walker. First Cardinal ever to win a derby.

[B]

Yeah. How.

[A]

First Cardinal to participate since 2012, I think.

[B]

And who was the last Cardinal?

[A]

Carlos Beltrand.

[B]

Oh, okay.

[A]

Yeah. And, yeah. Yeah. Pujol's never won one with the Cardinals. I don't think McGuire actually participated in one with the Cardinals. He was doing it during the actual games. He was doing it in batting practice. But Pujols was there. Barry Bonds was there. They had a lot of luminaries on the scene doing various commentating. But, yeah, he was the fifth youngest Derby winner, I believe. And. And the big finish, I think there had been no homers on a final swing until that final round. Wow. And Schwarber got only one, I think. And then, yeah, Walker. One upped him or four upped him. So fun stuff. Good format. I think minor tweaks to the broadcast would be appreciated, but I'm fine with this basic framework for now. I do expect that there will be a drum beat that builds for changes because it's the Home Run Derby and it never stays the same. And I'm open to the idea that the event just grows stale after a certain number of years and that maybe after we have swings, people will advocate for outs or people will want to go back to the timer and then we'll just repeat the cycle. And maybe that's okay because it's. It's just an exhibition. It's just for fun. Maybe keeping it fresh is more important than having the ideal format dialed in. But this works for me for now, and I will be curious to see if and when we get numbers on the audience for this thing. Just because there was a time not too long ago when it seemed like the Derby was really becoming the breakout baseball event. And Sam Miller wrote his piece, I think it was 2019, about imagining a future where the Home Run Derby just displaces baseball itself and becomes the national pastime. And then there's the whole Home Run Derby X Circuit and everything. And I'm sort of skeptical. I think there's a ceiling in the appeal of this event just because it does get tedious after a certain number of swings and hoers. I feel like once a year is fine for me. I don't really need to see that. Many. And it's like the All Star Game swing off from last year that everyone got super excited about, was talking about, ooh, is this the way to end games? Who needs the zombie runner? You can do the swing offs. It's like penalty kicks or something. And I'm fine with consigning that to rare incidents with maybe an exhibition because these things are just more special when there's a scarcity to them.

[B]

I am not the target audience for the 3 on the MLBX 3 on 3 thing and its presence on Sunday is just a source of resentment for me because their insistence on sort of double booking the day that the Futures Game happens is really frustrating because it prevents us from getting a full night inning game. Having said that, I do think there's some promise in that event if you can, if you can construct the, the right field. And I don't know that it needs to be a whole skills competition. I don't know how much it needs to happen. It could be a quick thing and then you'd have the Futures Game go nine and then this quick fun thing. But you know, if you can, if you can properly identify the franchise icons who can still hit dingers. Look, people go bonkers for that stuff. And then this field featured two softball players. Beautiful swings. The both of them hit dingers. And then Jordan Mylotto was on the field. Who Ben. He's a football player for the Eagles. Okay, we're just going back to this bit because it's going to be right more often than it's wrong.

[A]

Unlearn everything I've learned. But yeah, the knowledge may fade.

[B]

Some detailed my lot of thoughts fascinating like sports dev story. But anyway, he's not a baseball player is one thing we learned. Although the swing wasn't as bad as I was maybe expecting it to be. But I think one of the things, I mean, it wasn't good to be clear, it was pretty bad, but it wasn't. It was more serviceable than I was expecting. I thought it was going to be like more embarrassing. But you know how you have that experience when you're looking at a pro athlete and you're just like, wow, that is a big. That's a big person. And one of the ways that that enforces itself is when you get close to them. And my experience of that is like, you know, if I am on the field like for batting practice and there's a big guy in the cage, you're like, holy Moses. That is just like a giant human. Or like at the combine when Brody Bumilla came into the suite, and we were all just like, that is the biggest teenager I've ever seen in my life. And then you look at his hands and you're like, those are the biggest human hands I've ever seen. Set aside demographic, but the proximity enforces the largeness, right? It reinforces the bigness of the person. And then I had the experience on Sunday of distance enforcing hugeness, right where I was sitting in the press box, the main box, because it's, you know, it's a Futures Game, so there's some more open seats than there are the rest of the time. And we're sitting up there and we're executing our plan of action. When are we going to leave? What is Brandon's approach to his piece going to be, et cetera? Jordan Mylotta is down there, and I'm just like. That is like the. I'm at a distance, and look how big that guy is. He's just like the biggest man. You're like, yeah, I would. I'd feel better if you were in front of me and I played for the Eagles, too, and be like, whoa. Okay.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So anyway, I think that there's. I think there is a lot of room for fun and creative approaches to all of these events, and they're not all gonna work. And as long as everyone's aware of that and, like, sort of applauds the approach of trying stuff, I think that the stakes are so low. We should just keep all of that in mind, and we can have that fun, sort of experimental, casual vibe for that stuff. And then we can make the Futures Game nine innings and preserve the actual baseball. And everyone will. Everyone will be happy, Ben. Everyone, I'm sure.

[A]

Yes, I'm sure you can please everyone with some approach to the broadcast or format. Absolutely. Everyone will say yes. You nailed it.

[B]

Nailed it.

[A]

Okay. I was wrong, by the way. Maguire did participate in two home run derbies as a Cardinal. His last two. 98 and 99.

[B]

But he didn't win.

[A]

He didn't win 99. He hit a lot of homers, but he didn't win. Griffey won that year. Okay, gotcha. So you will provide a report on the All Star Game as well on the podcast later this week. Just one thing about that, we're recording before the game. But Neil Payne, who did some research on All Star selections a couple years ago at my prompting, which I reported on the podcast on episode 2189, I asked him to look into whether All Star selections had gotten more dependent on single Season performance or present season performance as measured by war. And that has been the case. And he just updated that research, not at my behest, at his substack, Neil's substack. And he broke it down this time in terms of position players and pitchers and also starters and relievers. And he found how important the current season and current season WAR is relative to prior season WAR two seasons ago war. And he tracked this by decade going back to the 90s as well. And what he found last time holds up that it is becoming more and more dependent on first half performance and specifically first half war. Obviously no one was paying attention to first half war in the 90s, so now we have war. So that makes sense. But also I think people are paying closer attention to it, but just to put it into perspective. So pre All Star Break War was in the 90s, the relative importance of that to whether someone was an all star was 69% nice weighting on that versus 16% for the preceding season and 16% from the season before that. Whereas in the 2000s so far it's 87% weight being placed on current season war 87 versus 69 and then only 6 or 7% weight being placed on the preceding season. And it's even more pronounced for pitchers. That was for position players.

[B]

Oh, interesting.

[A]

Yeah. But now it's 97% weight on the current season for pitchers and it was always higher. It was always in the 80s or 90s for pitchers in past seasons too, I guess. I don't know. Pitchers are less predictable, more volatile. Their injuries and it's all subject to small sample with ERs or win loss record or whatever dictated that. But it's. It's less dependent on current season performance for bullpen arms for relievers.

[B]

Oh, interesting.

[A]

Yeah, which was kind of counterintuitive to me. I. I might have thought it was even more heavy emphasis on.

[B]

I think so, yeah.

[A]

Cuz it's just you have sort of a small sample fluky, you know, great 30 innings with a microscopic era or something. But yeah, I guess not. Maybe because. Well, it could be because WAR doesn't do as great a job of measuring relievers or at least if it does, it doesn't match quite as closely to the perception of those relievers maybe. And people are looking at other stats for that or saves or something though there's less of an emphasis on saves these days. But I guess being a star reliever to the extent that that exists can kind of get you into a game. But I think part of this is also that there's a lot of weight on, on the, prior to the All Star break single season wonders because for some of them, that's the entire MLB track record. It's like Kevin McGonagall or Travis Pizzano or Munetaka Murakami. Well, they don't have any history of major league performance. So it is a little different, I think if you look at say a highly rated rookie, someone who was a top prospect or a, a highly touted off season overseas signing. That's a little different I think, than just the pure first half fluke kind of thing where it's just someone who had a track record of not being very good, but having been in the big leagues before gets to be an All Star. That's a little different I think, than if you're Kevin McGonagall, where yet it is obviously based on just what you did that year. But, but what you did that year is your whole body of work in

[B]

the big leagues and like, who knows how his career will unfold. Right? But something that feels like it is approximating what we might expect of his performance. Right. Like it doesn't feel fluky even though there isn't a prior big league track record to rely upon because of when he debuted. You know what I mean?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Like you're not looking at it like, well, flash in the pan. Kevin McGonagall, that guy's pretty good.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah. And even Jordan Walker obviously was as highly rated as prospects come, but he was not very good over the preceding three years and especially the last couple he was sub replacement level. So in his case, it very much is sort of a, well, what have you done for me lately? He's done a lot for St. Louis lately. He's been way more valuable in the first part of the season than he had in the three partial seasons leading up to that. He of course came with that great pedigree and reputation, so that's a little different. Or Louis Varland, for instance, who wasn't really well known prior to the postseason last year and then he had this prolific postseason and he's been lights out this season. And so that's kind of a product of, of recency, not even bias, but just placing a lot of emphasis on what he has done lately.

[B]

So, and just, I'm sorry, like I, I don't have evidence for this, but I, I would hazard just because he pitches so dang much like his Q rating relative to both pedigree track record and like overall war production, it has to be the, like outsized in a way that no one else can replicate in the field because as we've established, every time I turn on the Blue Jays, Louis Varlund is pitching. He's just every day more than Dylan Cease. I feel like I've seen more Louis Varlin innings than Dylan Cease innings. And I know objectively that's not true because I've seen like you know, three Dylan C. Starts or whatever. But my, my God, I just.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, he is Blue Jays poochie, basically. He's everywhere. It's true. And yeah, so I will link to Neil's research. I don't think it's a bad thing necessarily because I am kind of in the camp of you have to have been good that year. I think there's something to be said for star power, certainly, and the event is is lesser for say, Shohei Ohtani not being there, for Aaron Judge not being there, and for other guys who just are stars but weren't off to a great start this season. But I do think it is imperative that the player actually have played well in the current season. Even if they're not quite playing up to their peak performance, even if they're not the most deserving by WAR in the beginning of the season, I think they at least have to have had a credible, more or less All Star level performance or then it just kind of becomes a career accomplishment award and we have the legacy picks by the commissioner and I think that's a good institution. But yeah, I think it should be representative of that season as well. It should be sort of telling the story of the first half. And I do mean actually the first half because that's pretty much what people are basing the voting and the selections are. So that's important to me too. Even though if you were going purely for ratings and interest, I guess you'd go with the biggest names regardless of whether they're doing well that year. It has to be a balance, but I'm fine with with the balance being leaning more a bit toward the present season performance direction. Anyway, I'll link to Neil's updated research on that and All Star Game itself can be discussed on the next episode. So just a couple other things before I let you get to the ballpark for the pregame festivities. You just attended a BBWAA meeting, correct? I did. And Bruce Meyer and Rob Manfred made appearances at said meeting and said things at said meeting. So anything interesting that you gleaned from their comments or statements or questions they were asked?

[B]

Sure.

[A]

They didn't give a dual Press conference, by the way. They usher them in separately. They make sure Meyer's out of the room, then comes in with a break,

[B]

with a break in between. I don't think that we heard anything new today from, from either party to the negotiation. And of course, you know, the questions they were asked were not entirely rooted in the cba, although that was a. A heavy theme. But, you know, they were both asked about gambling, both in general, and Bryce Harper specific terms as it relates to the FanDuel video and what have you. You know, there were a number of questions around Olympic participation and how mandatory or not it would be. Although the understanding, I think, from both of them is that they're in such early stages of negotiating around that stuff that it's. There's not really much to report at this, at this point. And obviously the Olympic participation negotiations will take a backseat to the actual CBA negotiations. Although, you know, both parties seem committed to MLB players participating MLB players seem to want to participate. Whether they will be incentivized or required to participate, I think is one of the questions. It obviously has implications for where the All Star Game is that year. Da da da. My main takeaway, and you know, we can quibble with the interpretation of facts on the ground that both of them might have presented, particularly Rob Manfred, but I think one of the things that I was struck by is that the league is really gonna lean on this notion that they are simply doing what their fans want when it comes to trying to implement a salary cap. That is the justification that was offered by Manfred. It was reiterated several times. He even put it in the context of, as he is talking to the various ownership groups in the league that he has been heartened by, and I'm not quoting directly here, but paraphrasing what he said, that, you know, he has been heartened by his ability to convince them of it, of the importance of appeasing fans on this question. Right. That they view competitive balance to be a real issue and that their sort of desired and preferred solution to that as an issue is a cabin floor system that resembles the one you see in, in the NFL and the NHL and the NBA. He was asked, he being Manfred, was asked about the level playing field commercials. You know, he was asked if this is in fact a genuine and organic sentiment on the part of your fans, why do you feel the need to advertise this issue? And he was like, well, you know, both parties in a negotiation are going to put their opinion force. And if, you know, we feel that the. The other side Isn't necessarily reflecting reality. Like, it just makes sense. Why wouldn't we say it again? I'm paraphrasing, but sort of rejecting the. The idea of this being advertising so much as communication and reinforcement of an agreed upon reality, even though the. I think the question is highly contested. So I think that we are in for. We're in for a long winter. Both Bruce and Rob sort of shied away from saying that their respective camps were willing to miss a season over it. But Bruce reiterated that this is an issue that is central to the union's sort of understanding of itself, that this is like a thing that they have been. This being the implementation of a cap has been sort of a bright line for them for a long time and will continue to be. And I want to acknowledge my own perspective on labor questions generally when I say this because I'm sure that there are things to quibble with when it comes to sort of Bruce's presentation of the facts, although I tend to agree with his understanding of the. Both the health of the game and the best and fairest thing when it comes to the distribution of revenue. But Manfred was asked about the draft proposals and why it's a priority for the league to restrict the eligibility of high school players and make the draft something that is only accessible to college athletes. And his answer was, well, this is the state of Play. You know, 70% of our draftees come from the college ranks. And it's like, well, that, that. That's true. But also, the first overall pick in last year's draft was literally a high schooler, right? Like, all you have to do is look at this year's draft to see that high schoolers still go high, that they are well regarded as prospects, you know, that they are viewed as having meaningful big league potential. The Rays, just as we discussed with Eric, they just took a high school shortstop, number two overall, right? And so you end up in this situation where you do feel something of a discombobulation, because it's hard to know how much of the rhetoric around this stuff is just a genuine disagreement over the interpretation of the facts, but that those facts were offered in good faith and how much of it is an actual attempt at media manipulation to. To sort of get a particular agenda present. So, you know, all of that to say that I think that we're in for a long negotiation, and that's not surprising. You know, we've been trying to encourage people to sort of take these initial proposals in stride and just understand that these are the first sort of volleys in what is likely to be a long war. And the fact of the matter is that there's not going to be, at least, in my opinion, any headway made until the first proposal after the league decides they don't need a cap. Right. Because everything that they are proposing is at least in part predicated on a cap and floor system. And so until they decide we are at risk of losing a number of games that we are unwilling to lose and will move on, or the union folds, and you can probably guess which of those things I think is more likely, we're not getting anywhere. Because you can't. You can't talk about redefining amateur entry. You can't talk about changing the structure of free agency when the, you know, the structure of free agency, as the owners want to define it, is predicated on hard salary restrictions that are directly tied to a cap system. And you can't talk about how to. How you might rework or reposition the draft until we agree that you're not going to cut it to 12 rounds and restrict the size of bonus pools. So for all the words that have been spoken back and forth, we're basically nowhere.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

You know, I mean, and I don't say that to be fatalistic, and I don't say it because my opinion of, like, how many games we're going to lose has fundamentally changed or anything like that. It's just like it is. Every time you hear from either side, it becomes clear that at least until the cap piece of it is. Is removed from the discussion, there's no. There's no moving forward. Right. Because you have one side that is trying to alter the economic system within the existing system to change things, but to retain the basic structure we have now. And then you have one side that is trying to fundamentally upend that system, and you can't have any agreement until the two sides are operating within the same set of constraints in reality. And right now, they just aren't.

[A]

Yeah. It reminds me of that season one West Wing episode where Sam Seaborn says to Leo McGarry, Leo, there are times when we are absolutely nowhere. Yeah. So that's where we are. I think we'll get somewhere. But we're not somewhere yet. We're still nowhere. But that is. Yeah, it's a good point. Yeah. When. When they decide to give up that pipe dream, if it is one for this round.

[B]

Right.

[A]

That will have some bearing on how quickly the rest of it plays out. So.

[B]

And you know, it's going to be a bunch of Back and forth and recrimination and, and, and here I will nitpick one thing, like, you know, Bruce was asked about the reality of the amateur draft proposal and the fact that those folks are not in the union yet and will their interests basically be sacrificed to the interests of the existing membership? And, you know, Bruce is like, well, that's never happened. It's like, well, yeah, it has. I mean, come on. You know, he did, he did paint a portrait of the history of the MLBPA and its membership that perhaps overstated the constancy of the solidarity across particular demographics. But we just will wait and see. And the final thing I'll say about this is that there will be, I'm sure, plenty of interaction between the media, both members of the BBWA who were present at this meeting, and, and those who are not so affiliated going forward. But it did strike me, it's like, oh, this is the last time we're all going to be in this room together for a little while, because in all likelihood we will not have a winter meetings because there will be a lockout and this availability only happens at the Ulster break anyway. But, yeah, it's like, oh, this is. It did feel a little melancholy to me. I don't. I'm not saying that was the, the energy in the room or anything like that, but I felt a little melancholy about it because it's like, all right, yeah, we're. We're in for a long and sort of separated winter as these things unfold.

[A]

Yeah. One thing about Manfred's comments, I know that this season's standings aren't really going to dictate the outcome of these negotiations, but when he was harping on the need for competitive balance, I believe that in order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we're about, competitive balance. We need to make sure that fans in markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win. I think that we need a system where fans, particularly in smaller markets, can have some hope. The players that are signed and developed by their organization can actually stay there through free agency. And honestly, I think we need a system where there is a more robust free agent market. So if you don't want to go to New York or Los Angeles, you have a realistic opportunity to get viable free agent contracts. And I also think we have an obligation to our players to get into a system where salary growth in baseball is not the slowest among the four major professional sports leagues. So going on and on about competitive balance when the standings look like they do right now.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And there are all sorts of teams that are. How can you say that fans don't have hope?

[B]

And he was asked about that. Right. Because you're right. As we are sitting here recording with, you know, the, the break before us, the, the Rays are in first place in the, the AL east and the brewers are one of the best teams in baseball and, and leading the Central. And there, there is a range, obviously the, the AL Central is what it is, but they're the guardians. Sit. So, you know, the, and he, he did sort of quip, he's like, I know it gives Bruce some talking points. And it's like, well, yeah, Rob, it does, because there they are and there's this funny contrast. He opened his remarks because each of them sort of gives sort of a little 10, 15 minute standup and then they take questions. And he opened his remarks about how attendance is up and viewership is up and not only are ratings up, but they're up with younger people. And the league has been able to sort of successfully capitalize on some of the boosts that the World cup has given them, that they've seen some positive sort of cross pollination there. I think both from an attendance and ratings perspective. The derby was so great and all of these events this week have been so wonderful and Philly has been such a great host city and then he immediately is transitioning into this sort of doom and gloom out, you know, forecast for the, the state of things. And he was asked to sort of reconcile that. And he's like, well, you know, the best way to arrest positive momentum is to just like, let things be stagnant. And we've, we've been able to accomplish all of this because of the feedback of our fans and the rule changes that they've liked and the MLBPA resisted. And, you know, and so this is just more listening to the fans. And of course, it's a brief availability. And so no one had the opportunity to ask. Well, you know, because he was, he was also asked about sort of what is their method of gauging fan priorities. Like, how do you know what the fans want? He talked about the polling firms that they use and the focus groups. And you know, of course the, the natural follow up is, well, if the fans told you they didn't want a cap, would you take it off the table? No, of course you wouldn't. I don't want to suggest that There isn't a perception problem because I do think that there are a lot of fans who look at the Dodgers and think that baseball ball isn't fair. You know, we've talked about this and I think that there is some attention that needs to be paid to that. There needs to be sort of an approach to making this whole project feel better for some fan bases. You know, we've offered suggestions on that, that the league isn't interested in just having a floor, no cap. You know, they don't want to live in that world. Their owners don't want to live in that world. But so I don't mean to say that like the, the fan piece of it isn't something that they're sensitive to. I think that they are. They're running a business and that business is purchased by fans. Right. The consumers of the product are fans. And so if for no other reason than they have, you know, a degree, a highly motivated self interest to keep people happy. I think it would be disingenuous to say they have no either understanding or care toward the fan experience, but it would also be ridiculous to suggest that that is the primary motivating factor for them wanting a capped system. It's just obviously untrue. And so.

[A]

And the fact that there's parody in the standings this season doesn't mean there's complete parody when it comes to resources and audiences. Of course, that's not the case. So it's somewhat surface level and disingenuous to pretend that there's complete parody in all realms because of the standings. But it does make it tough to argue that fans don't have hope when clearly a ton of teams are very much in it. And also, whether or not you have everyone outbidding the Yankees or Dodgers in free agency, I mean, not that the Yankees lately have always been the high bidders in free agency, but when you have teams signing their players to long term extensions early in their careers, as we talked about with Eric last time, you're sort of preempting free agency because you're just keeping them off the market entirely. So that's one path available to people. But yeah, it is a difficult stance to do.

[B]

Bruce had that listed to names.

[A]

I'm sure he, he was ready to

[B]

lay them all out. And he, he covered, yes, he covered the whole gamut on that score.

[A]

It's tough to choreograph that approach though, because. Right. Manfred. And he's been knocked in the past for not selling the sport and just pointing out the problems with it. And to some extent he was doing that in order to get changes across. And, and he had legitimate points when he was talking about games being too slow or too long or whatever. And so that was in service of selling a pitch clock and all the other changes. But he was often the one sort of going, woe is us. And here's what's wrong with baseball. Whereas people expect a commissioner to be sort of promoting the sport and maybe that's kind of an inaccurate understanding of what the commissioner's actual role is. But he is trying to sell the sport to broadcast partners, which is to the benefit of, of the people he works for. And so he wants to make it sound like, hey, there's a lot of interest in baseball, baseball's thriving, you want to be in the baseball business because a lot of people will watch our programming. But then he also, at the same time has to be like, baseball is broken and we need to dramatically overhaul the whole economic system or else. And so, yeah, to sell it as like, yeah, things are great, but if we don't change everything, things won't be great, things will be bad. That's, it's a little tough to do that dance. So anyway, we will continue to track all of that. One thing that came up, I guess briefly in those addresses, but was mentioned in some articles on Tuesday is the negotiation over players participation in the Olympics in 2028. Yeah, which is pretty interesting too because it seems like the All Star Game is probably going to be in San Francisco and there will be an extended All Star break and you'll have big leaguers participating in the Olympics. But all of that is subject to negotiation and the sides are still somewhat far apart when it comes to the specifics there. And Jeff Passon published a piece on Tuesday morning about this and it leads with. Major League Baseball has gathered support from owners to allow big league players to participate in the Olympics for the first time. But disagreements with the MLBPA over hotel rooms, tickets and a mandatory participation agreement have complicated their involvement in the 2028 LA Games. And it goes on to say that their plans to shut down the sport for 11 days. And then there would be the six team tournament, it'd be at Dodger Stadium, saying it's about hotel rooms, tickets and a mandatory participation agreement. I think probably the mandatory participation agreement seems like the big thing. I'm not suggesting that players don't care about how many seats and rooms and tickets they get. Sure they do. But the mandatory participation, that seems like a pretty big deal because MLB wants players to be compelled to participate. So it says potential complications have arisen during negotiations which involve a complex web of issues that include hotel rooms, tickets, insurance, nil rights and the mandatory participation agreement proposed by the league that would place players who run a foul of requirements on the restricted list without pay or service time from July 12 to Aug. 3, according to a copy of the league's proposals obtained by espn. And they want to do that because they want all the big stars and they want sh and they want judge. They don't want it to be like this all star gamer homer derby. They want it to be a true showcase of the biggest guys and not to have it like previous WBCS where it was tough to get players to participate sometimes. Then it says beyond balking at compulsory involvement for all players, the MLPPA strongly opposes a deal that would allow placement on the restricted list as well as Commissioner Rob Man's ability in the agreement to discipline for just cause with a fine and or unpaid suspension, according to the league's proposal. The union has not responded with its own proposal as of yet. I mean that sounds like a pretty big sticking point more so than tickets and hotel rooms and, and there's other stuff like the Olympics have their own drug testing agreement and everything and it's different and tests for different substances like cannabis or whatever than MLB does than the joint agreement does. But that's a big thing. Like I think a lot of players would be pretty enthusiastic about participating in the Olympics. Certainly Bryce Harper has been a big advocate. He even said during the WBC that the WBC is not quite the same as the Olympics and everything. So I don't know that you'd have to twist players arms to get them to go. Yeah, of course it's mid season and you're going to have guys who are nursing injuries and pitcher usage and all the rest of it, injury risk, everything. But I think a lot of players would probably jump at that potentially once in a career opportunity. But to make it mandatory and to say that if you don't want to play in the Olympics, you don't even get paid like you, you're going to be on the restricted list or something that seems quite heavy handed. So I, I would certainly understand balking at that.

[B]

It seems like the sort of thing that does require like a real negotiation. There are important questions here. I you know, I'm sure that some of it is more trivial but also probably easier to resolve. You know like yeah, you just, I think we have a good precedent for what big league standard is around. You know, hotel Accommodations and comps and all of that stuff. So I imagine that that is relatively easy to sort compared to, you know, questions of mandatory participation and what have you. And I understand the argument, the argument that the league is making, which is like what's the difference to you? There would be games played during this time of year without the Olympics. So just play them for Team USA or whatever. But you know, I think that we can imagine scenarios where a guy, you know, maybe a guy gets hurt. Like what if you're a pre free agency pitcher and you're compelled to participate in Team USA action and then you blow out? Well, maybe you would have blown out anyway. But the risk calculus, I can understand being different in one environment where your performance is directly correlated to your future compensation and another where it isn't like that. That seems like a sticking point that would be reasonable. I also, and this is a genuinely open question, I'm curious, like how, how necessary is the compulsion really? Right. Because we have seen WBC participation skyrocket and at a time of year where I think that players are more sort of understandably nervous to, to dip away either because they're worried it's going to mess up their, their preparation for the, the season to come or because they're not fully ramped up and are more concerned about injury as a result of that. And even with those limitations, like we saw, at least for the American team, like a real turning point this year in terms of the quality of the pitchers who decided that they were willing to, to play for Team usa. So I, I mean surely it is, it's a sticking point to some degree because of the all star stuff of it all. But I don't know, like you got two years. Yeah. To get everybody on board with it and, and start your campaign to get your best guys involved. And I don't know, if Mark DeRosa couldn't turn him off the WBC, how hard could it be?

[A]

Yeah. There's an email that ESPN reported here from Ian Penny, who is a lawyer and special advisor at the MLBPA and in late June wrote. The MLBPA is seeking fair treatment for its members in consideration for the substantial financial value they would bring to LA28. Ideally, that consideration would closely align with the value created and include direct compensation. However, what these proposals are largely designed to accomplish is to prevent our members from losing money by participating, whether due to expenses incurred or commercial rights lost, both individually and collectively. Given the significant financial benefits of flowing to non athlete stakeholders in the games, we view these proposals as particularly modest and imminently. Reasonable. And it does say imminently reasonable, not eminently reasonable. I don't know whether that's a typo by Penny or an ESPN misquote. I like the idea that soon they'll be reasonable. They're not reasonable now. But imminently our proposals will be remedied.

[B]

Just give it. Just give it a minute.

[A]

Yeah. Which is. I mean, that's probably true. That's how negotiations work, I guess.

[B]

Guess.

[A]

But, yeah, obviously this was a big thing for the NHL at the Olympics, and so it could be a big showcase for baseball. And, you know, MLB wants that in advance of the broadcast contracts expiring at the end of 2028 to have a big summer showcase for baseball and have all the biggest stars and six teams. But there's a lot that would have to be done with hockey. They didn't agree on a deal until July 2 of last year, which was 209 days before the Olympics started, where.720 days before the scheduled first start of Olympic baseball in 2028. So there's time, except that a lot of stuff has to be planned before then. So there's the All Star Game. They might have to start the season a little sooner. They would end the pre All Star break scheduled July 9. Then there'd be the Home Run Derby in the All Star game the next two days. Then they'd do the Olympics starting on July 13, which is actually right before the opening ceremony. And then there would be Medal Games July 19, and then everyone would be back and the regular season would restart July 21st.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So it's less of a break than in men and women's hockey, where the seasons really are suspended for weeks. But it's still. Yeah, it's still longer than we're accustomed to in baseball, but worth it in a lot of respects for the sport and perhaps for the players and the exposure and everything. So I hope they do work it out. But, yeah, certainly seems like there's some stuff to figure out and a little

[B]

bit of distance to cover, both eminently and. Yeah, maybe just imminently, but certainly eminently.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I don't know. Is it an eminently bridgeable gap?

[A]

Hopefully. I meant to say also that one of the nice things about the All Star Game in the Home Run Derby is just seeing all the All Stars just hang out in this exhibition setting and they're just kind of. Yeah, they're just lounging on the field and they got their families and they got little kids and they're teaching them about the game and they're associating with each other in ways that they don't get to do during the course of the regular season. Which is another thing about the WBC that's cool because it brings people from different teams together as teammates. And I think the epitome of this, this year for me, I read an article by Pete Abraham in the Globe about Satan Rafaela and Pete Car Armstrong and how they kind of have a little love affair going and it's great. Yeah, cuz that's great. I've associated these two guys in my mind because they both play spectacular center field and they had very similar trajectories last year where they had such hot first halves and then they just kind of cratered and were bad from then on. And they were sort of similar players in that they sort of swung at everything and didn't walk much and then had such great gloves in center. And now, of course, I think PCA has leapfrogged Rafaela. He's been twice as valuable this year. He's a hair behind Shohei and fangraph's war for the Matri League lead. And he walks now. Which is, yeah, maybe one thing that could come out of these conversations because they were spending some time together on Sunday and then had a longer conversation on Monday and in this piece they basically just declare each other their respective favorite players. Like, which is so cool. I mean, you know, maybe not including teammates, not on a personal level necessarily, but just players they admire and enjoy. Sedan Rafaela was PCA's answer when he was asked who his favorite player is. He said, I'm a huge fan of anybody who can play multiple positions. But then you add in the fact that he's a Gold Glover and there's nothing to dislike about Sedan's game. I like playing against him and I like watching him. And of course he was a late addition to the All Star Game. Rafaela, that is. And Rafaela said, I saw PCA on Sunday and he said, hey, how are you? It's my favorite player. And I told him, you're mine too. He's a great player and a great person and it's great to have a chat with him. Just so heartwarming, you know, and just

[B]

really fan out each other.

[A]

It's so sweet. And it's. And yeah, maybe, maybe PCA could instruct Rafaela on walking a bit more because then he could also level up on offense a little bit. Yeah, but you know, I, I just, I really like that, that these guys who maybe don't get a ton of time together in this sort of setting, get to spend time with each other and express their affection and appreciation for each other both to, to each other and also to the media. And yeah, yeah, I like the, the unlikely friendships, the, the best buds that we find out about.

[B]

It was fun to, you know, they keep panning to folks during the derby and man, Jesus Lozardo was going nuts for both of the Phillies during that stretch. And you know, as time went on, people were cheering for everybody. I do think my favorite players being goofy or adorable moment was when Randy Rosarino almost missed the AL All Star team pick. Oh yeah, I saw your picture sprinting across the fields. Got out there just in time for them to reset and retake it. But I was like, oh, Randy.

[A]

Yeah, it's nice. All right. And players who are, are normally forced to be on opposing sides. Well, I guess they still are because PCA and, and Raphael are in different leagues, but still not really. So they get to hang out and they're close in age. Raphael is a little older than PCA but close enough. So yeah, love those baseball bonds and, and the last thing, I guess we could segue from Rafaela to the red hot Red Sox and the ice cold A's entering the break because these two teams, the Red Sox entered the break on a nine game winning streak and the A's entered the break on a nine game losing streak. And if you look at changes in playoff odds since the start of July, the Red Sox are the number one gainers. They're up 26.4 percentage points since the start of July and the A's are the number one losers. They're down 16.6 percentage points since the start of July. And also they just fired their pitching coach. So these are two teams moving in very different directions and reshaping where they stand entering trade deadline season. And so I'm kind of bummed that, that the A's have fallen out of it a little bit and have run into this rough patch because that is a fun team or I thought it would be a fun team. And it's, it's tough. Like they fire Scott Emerson as their pitching coach who's been in the organization in various capacities going back to like moneyball time 2002. And they elevated their bullpen coach Dan Hubs to this role. That's rough because no one really thought the A's pitching was going to be good.

[B]

And yeah, but they also have the like, if you look at the last 30 days split on our leaderboard by team, like they do have the Worst era?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

In. In the majors over that time. Their FIP is real garbage. They have been worth, you know, negative 1.2 wins. The worst fib in the majors. Like I agree with you that the expectations of that staff both I think in the rotation and in the bullpen were pretty low. But they also have been playing pitching some pretty poor baseball.

[A]

And he's been the pitching coach for quite some time. So it could be partly on him that the expectations were low to begin with. But. But it's tough because they've had trouble recruiting pitchers and, and getting guys to want to play there and spending money and stuff in the past too. And then it does seem like they have some guys who have come up through the organization like Gage Jump is. Is good. And they also have this stark disparity in their performance on the road and at home.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

Which you would expect given the park in West Sacramento, but they have been quite good on the road really. So they have the 11th best ERA and the 9th best FIP on the road. And that's comparing their road performance to all other teams road performances. So they've actually been good when they're away from their home park, but at home it's been a complete disaster. So they are dead last in ERA at home, 6.37. And they are dead last in FIP at home as well, 5.7. And part of that is just the park that's not park adjusted, obviously. And then I guess it's. I don't know if there's a way to adjust to pitch in that park more effectively that they haven't done, but clearly there's something there if they're able to hold their own on the road like that. And so I don't know if it's just a, a park effect, it's entirely the park's fault, or whether it's just manifesting itself even more there. They have failed to pitch to the park in some way anyway. He's the fall guy. Of course, the offense hasn't been that great either. And if they were just really great at hitting and terrible at pitching, that's sort of what was expected. They've been. They have a 99 WRC plus also. So they're 17th in WRC plus and they're 24th in position player WAR. And yeah, they've had injuries and stuff, but who hasn't? So that's as disappointing as anything that they haven't made up for the pitching shortcomings by slugging the way that they were sort of expected to Also, yeah,

[B]

I think that, you know, it's, it's a combination of things and I'm sure that, you know, the, the fact that they are so much better on the road suggests that their true talent is better than what we have seen seen. But also I think they're, they're not, they have no margin for error on the pitching side and so they can't weather like offensive spoons in quite the same way because they just don't have that sort of run prevention floor to rely on where they can keep the merchants tight and, and not have to worry about it. So I think that this is the reality of your franchise. When you're going to spend some number of years in a minor league park, it's going to present environmental challenges to you as a result of the way the park plays and it creates recruiting challenges for you because big leaguers don't necessarily want to sign on to play there long term and not think that they're going to see Vegas. So I think that, you know, a lot of the guys they have on that team are really promising and they are, many of them are going to be around long enough that they will be still, I think, good and productive when they actually have like a, a real big league facility. Not that that park won't present some challenges of its own. You can engineer your way around some of them, but there is just a reality to playing at that in Vegas that they're going to have to contend with. But I don't know, I think that this is kind of how it's going to be for them for a little while. And they might have seasons in the midst of that where the pitching is better or the offense is really outstanding. And if some of their young pitching prospects come along and are able to contribute, okay, fine, you could still have years where things are working out the way you want them to. But I think the downside scenario looks a lot like what we're saying, so.

[A]

And as for the Red Sox, they are red hot. They have won nine in a row. They've won 14 of their last 16. This started when they swept the Yankees in a four game series. And I don't want to oversell it, they're. They're 46 and 48.

[B]

Right.

[A]

It's, it's not good. But, but they have vaulted themselves back into contention here in a very real way. And this is a team that was expected to be good and was forecasted to be a top contender. And so maybe it's just regression finally working for them. They have a 40% chance to make the playoffs according to fan graphs. I don't know. I might even take the over on that at this stage. Their fourth best run differential in the American League, which is not saying that much because it's the American League this year. But they have looked a lot better. They are now, I think under Chad Tracy, they're one of the better teams in baseball. It's not like a total Turnaround, but they're 36 and 31 now after this hot streak, which is the third best record record in the league. And you know, I, I wouldn't say Craig Breslow completely exonerated and vindicated, but some things have turned around a little bit. Like extremely slow starter Caleb Durbin has been a lot better. He's. He's basically been what you would hope for, I guess, for, for Durban, good defense, the bat has kind of come around. He's been by some measures about as valuable as Kyle Harrison, who got hurt. Right. And so that little belated breakout has been halted here along with Brandon Woodruff hurting his shoulder again, which just really, really stinks. It's every time he comes back he looks like his old self and then another thing snaps in his shoulder or something. It's. It's rough, but incredible defense for the Sox, which is not surprising. That was what they did last year too. But the, this outfield is just fantastic because of the aforementioned Rafaela flanked by Duran and Abreu. I mean, these guys just kind of catch everything, so that's really helping. And even though they've gotten nothing basically from Crochet, which is a big part of this, like getting nothing from crochet or Roman Anthony, that's a huge setback. And yet the defense has helped them compensate. And they've gotten good work out of some of the rookie pitchers. Tole and early, though he's now injured. And Jake Bennett, so that's starting to pay dividends. Some of these leftovers from, from the Bloom era as well and you know, starting to get guys like Anthony Siegler, who's, who's from that Durban deal also. He's done well. And Ranger Suarez is pitching like he was expected to pitch. Aroldis Chapman, who was extended last year, is continuing, just ageless, eternal Chapman just continuing to pitch pretty effectively. So, you know, they're getting some guys back soon in theory. Trevor Story for however long he and, and Suarez, they should be back by the end of the month. So there's some work to be done here. I, I think there's some deadline dealing to do as well. But the bones of this team just are still sort of solid. I just, I still kind of like the foundation the way that I did a few months ago before everything went south.

[B]

Yeah. I mean, like, I famously picked them to win the World Series.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So I'm thrilled that they are playing in a way that is commensurate with my understanding of their talent. And yeah, they, you know, we don't need to overstate the case. A team is never as bad as their worst streak or as hot as their hottest hot streak. And they are still two games under.500. But that felt impossible a couple of weeks ago because of they were playing a very uninspired brand of baseball. They had all these guys hurt. So it seems like they're in a position to potentially take advantage of how weak the American League is. Which doesn't mean that they are necessarily as good a team as I thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season. Season. But they surely weren't as bad as they had been playing either. And falling somewhere in between those two points might well be good enough this year.

[A]

So they're half a game out of playoff position, as improbable as that sounds. They're half a game behind the Twins and Meg's Mariners. And of course, there's a big jumble of teams directly behind them as well. So it's not going to be easy. But it is well within their grasp. And you would not necessarily have said that even when July started and the Vultures were. Were waiting and everyone was sort of seeing whether they would sell, whether they would be trade deadline divesters. And now you kind of have to see them. Of course, they. They could always have. Again, it's a long season and we're still weeks away from the trade deadline, and so maybe things will go south again. But as they stand right now, you sort of have to see them as. As a team that would add, I think, more so than a team that would subtract.

[B]

I think that's right.

[A]

Okay. Well, we will see how that all pans out. And I will not be with you next time. So you have the podcast con because it turns out, how do you get me to take an episode off? You send me a summons for jury duty. So as a upstanding citizen, I must answer the call. I actually, I thought I had slipped through the cracks some somehow, because I was. I was actually on a jury. I was selected and. And was on a jury. But it must have been, oh, gosh, I don't know, a dozen years ago or something. It was a long time ago, it

[B]

seems long enough for you to be back, I guess.

[A]

So I I hadn't heard a peep since then and I was thinking, gosh, did I. Did I slip through the cracks? Did I get lost in the shuffle? Did the system forget about me? I moved. Did they not know I moved or something? But no, the long arm of the government has tracked me down and so I will be showing up on Thursday to do my duty and we'll see how long that lasts. But you've got some travel post All Star Break. And so because of the travel and because of my summons, I will not be available on that day. So I will sit back and listen along with everyone else, and I will be eager to hear your review of the All Star Game and whatever else you banter about.

[B]

Sounds good.

[A]

Well, much as we're glad that Pete Carmstrong and Seydun Rafaela respect each other's talents, All Star Game recognize All Star Game. We're glad you enjoy what we do. Or that if you don't, you listen regardless. And you can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectivelywild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners Solomon Duveen, Andrew Burton, Matt Kasnik, Sean McCormick, and Matt Depain. Thanks to all of you. Patreon perks include access to a third unrestricted episode each week, a monthly bonus episode. You should hear what hijinks we get up to on those exclusive live streams. Membership in our Discord Group for patrons only, prioritized email answers, personalized messages, shoutouts at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, fan graphs, memberships and more. Check out all the [e-mail] effectivelywild if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphs.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Music and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook [e-mail] group effectivelywild. You can find the effectively wild subreddit at r effectivelywild and you can check the show notes in the podcast posted fan graphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats recited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. I look forward to joining the audience for the next episode. So I will talk to you next week, but Meg will be back later this week. How do you calculate more? Does it come from the heart? Should we use defensive Run safe or follow the OAA way? Who's gone away

[B]

with their quips and opinions?

[A]

Minions. It's effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. Effectively wild. It's effectively wild.