Effectively Wild Episode 2513: Abandon Zyhir Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here

Summary

Effectively Wild Episode 2513: “Abandon Zyhír Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here”

Date: August 3, 2026
Hosts: Ben Lindbergh (The Ringer), Meg Rowley (FanGraphs)

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Episode Overview

This episode is dedicated primarily to the blockbuster trade sending Cy Young winner Tarek Skubal from Detroit to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ben and Meg break down the trade from multiple perspectives: the quality of the Tigers' return, Skubal’s fit with the Dodgers, and, most importantly, what this continues to signal about the persistent imbalance of power and ambition in today’s MLB. They also discuss other prominent trades from the pre-deadline rush and close with a memorable detour into baseball broadcaster Ben McDonald’s unique haircare routine.

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Key Segment Breakdown

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1. The Dodgers Do It Again: Skubal to Los Angeles

[01:06–06:00]

• Trade Details:
  • Dodgers acquire: Tarek Skubal (2x defending Cy Young winner)
  • Tigers receive: Prospects Zyhír Hope (OF, AA), River Ryan (RHP, AAA IL), Brady Smith (RHP, high-A)
• Reaction Mood: Both hosts express a mix of fatigue and exasperation at the Dodgers yet again landing the best player on the market ("Not again, Meg. The Dodgers...they did it again. This is well past pattern. This has entered predictable territory." — Ben, [02:10])

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2. Assessing the Tiger’s Return: Prospects Analysis

[06:46–19:04]

• River Ryan

  • Profile: Debuted in 2024, looked MLB-ready, but had Tommy John surgery (2024) and later hamstring injury. Age and injury history raise concerns about longevity, though his stuff is MLB-caliber.
  • Ranking Disparities: FanGraphs is high on him (22nd overall), but some outlets left him off midseason lists — age and durability doubts weigh heavy.
    • "He is...only what, two years younger than Tarek Skubal...and I know there are outlets that are a good bit lower on Ryan than we are." — Meg, [07:12]

• Zyhír Hope

  • Highly regarded; major raw power but with swing-and-miss issues. Improved contact rates this year. Praised for makeup.
  • "The general industry consensus...is that like this is an impressive young person who works really hard..." — Meg, [11:20]
  • Rankings: BP as high as #20 and FanGraphs as low as #57; average rank across outlets: 35th overall.

• Brady Smith

  • Young (21), recent Tommy John, high potential "boom or bust" profile typical of Dodgers’ risky development bets.

• Deadline Dynamics

  • Tigers may have accepted Dodgers’ offer early because other interested clubs (e.g. Tampa Bay, Milwaukee) wouldn't part with their own top prospects.
  • "There’s a reasonable conversation to be had about how they sequenced this trade...Would they have done better if they waited? Maybe." — Meg, [15:05]

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3. Why Not Hold? The Tigers’ Perspective

[16:48–19:04]

• Ben and Meg consider whether Detroit should have held Skubal given their competitive position (were just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot). But they conclude the prospect package is strong by modern rental standards.

"For a lot of people who are not prospect hounds...none of whom is like elite blue chipper, household name type of prospect..." — Ben, [18:27]

• Most deadline trades for rentals historically don’t return superstar prospects; Dodgers themselves have made similar deals and often did not regret giving up prospects.

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4. What This Means for MLB’s Competitive Balance & The Dodgers’ Systemic Advantage

[22:00–48:33]

• Dodgers’ Organizational Machine:

  • It’s not just about money; infrastructure, drafting, development, depth, and market advantages allow LA to replenish their system and take risks other clubs cannot.
  • "This is our perpetual motion machine and we're gonna go and go and go." — Meg, [37:27]
  • "If it turns out Skubal is just a rental…they won't even feel it. They won't notice the difference." — Ben, [48:13]

• Payroll vs. Ambition

  • Only a portion of LA’s advantage can be capped by payroll restrictions; much is built on scouting, analytics, and player development.
  • Issue is as much about "ambition gap" across organizations as it is structural imbalance.
    • "How do you close the ambition gap? That’s a bigger problem." — Meg, [62:00]

• Parallels with Other Clubs

  • Rays & Brewers run superb dev systems but won't risk top prospects on short-term upgrades; enduring frustration that more mid-tier clubs don't “go YOLO” to break the pattern.
  • "There is part of me that wants those teams to be uncharacteristically aggressive and just go yolo" — Ben, [43:02]

• Impact on World Series Odds

  • Dodgers' odds jump notably (+5–6%) with the move, which is massive; evidence that single superstar trades still move needles.

    "That might not sound like a lot, but that's a huge [deal] when it comes to World Series [odds]..." — Ben, [27:39]

• Is a Salary Cap the Answer?

  • Both hosts strongly resist calls for a cap, citing labor concerns and the Dodgers’ non-payroll advantages.
  • "A floor conceivably could help with the ambition problem." — Ben, [63:44]
  • "I'm a certified salary cap hater." — Meg, [04:56]
  • “The ambition gap, that's a bigger problem. And you don't solve that with a cap.” — Meg, [62:50]

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5. Broader Trade Deadline Roundup

[74:02–89:29]

• Tampa Bay Rays pivot from Skubal, acquire Freddie Peralta from Mets (for Eden Smith, Emilian Petré, and Gary Gil Hill).

  • Substantial prospect return, but more spread-out, “go-wide” than Detroit’s focus on top-end and upside.

• Luis Castillo traded from Seattle Mariners to White Sox, with Chicago taking on salary; Seattle expected to potentially use savings for bats—but fans skeptical until proven otherwise.

  • "I am nervous this is mostly about getting Castillo salary off the books..." — Meg, [81:53]

• Other Notable Moves

  • Atlanta Braves add Lane Thomas, Bailey Falter.
  • Twins shore up by trading for Dean Kremer, A.J. Minter.
  • Pirates acquire Camilo Doval for help in their weak bullpen.
  • Brewers acquire Bo Naylor (Guardians) in a catching-centered, depth-providing trade.

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6. The “Ambition Problem” vs. the “Parody Problem”

[59:41–68:00; 62:00+]

• Public perception is that the Dodgers’ endless acquisition of stars saps hope for other fanbases.
• Even with postseason randomness ("I remember the Dodgers getting swept out...by literally the Arizona Diamondbacks. They got frickin’ rinsed." — Meg, [60:17]), regular-season hope matters.
• The issue isn’t just payroll or prospects—it's ownership groups’ willingness (or lack thereof) to act with ambition.

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7. “Moment of Zen”: Ben McDonald’s Hair Care Revelation

[91:45–102:38]

• Orioles broadcaster Ben McDonald revealed he’s “never used shampoo” in his life, just soap—while wearing a full head of hair.
• The hosts react with a mix of bafflement, concern, and curiosity:
  • “He sounded as if we are the weird ones, those who use shampoo.” — Ben, [93:44]
  • Meg narrates gentle concern for scalp and hair health, but largely adopts a live-and-let-live attitude.

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Notable Quotes by Timestamp

• Ben [02:10]: “Not again, Meg. The Dodgers, they acquired the best player available despite already being the best team. They did it again. This is well past pattern. This has entered predictable territory.”
• Meg [07:12]: “Boy, it sure is a little weird that a guy who is like only what, two years younger than Tarek Skubal is the headliner here.”
• Ben [18:27]: “For a lot of people who are not prospect hounds...none of whom is like elite blue chipper, household name type of prospect...”
• Meg [37:27]: “This is our perpetual motion machine and we're gonna go and go and go.”
• Ben [43:02]: “There is part of me that wants those teams to be uncharacteristically aggressive and just go yolo and just say like, we’ve gotten close a number of times. Maybe what’s holding us back...is being a bit too disciplined or conservative.”
• Meg [62:00]: “How do you close the ambition gap? That’s a bigger problem. And you don't solve that with a cap.”
• Ben [93:44]: “He sounded as if we are the weird ones, those who use shampoo.”

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Additional Insights & Running Themes

• The Dodgers’ Superiority as a Structural Feature: Multiple references to their “perpetual motion machine,” capacity to lose top prospects and not feel it, and unmatched resourcefulness.
• Ambition as the True Differentiator: Payroll, prospects, and player dev matter, but nothing matters as much as a front office with the “will to win.”
• Fan Experience Matters: The psychological impact on fans of mid- and small-market teams now feels like a “predestination problem.”
• Resigned Humor: Despite frustration, both hosts maintain a playful, engaged tone—even while bemoaning the predictability of the Dodgers.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Dodgers Trade Reaction: [01:06–06:00]
• Prospect Breakdown: [06:46–19:04]
• Implications for Tigers: [16:48–19:04]
• Competitive Balance/Structural Issues: [22:00–48:33]
• Playoff/World Series Odds Impact: [27:39–29:11]
• Other Trades Overview: [74:02–89:29]
• Ben McDonald’s Hair Routine: [91:45–102:38]

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Summary Takeaway

Los Angeles’ acquisition of Tarek Skubal—despite their already overwhelming excellence—is less an indictment of the Dodgers’ conduct than of systemic MLB incentives and the all-too-real “ambition gap” among their rivals. While this trade and others add intrigue to the postseason picture, they also reinforce the pattern of mid-market teams opting for sustainability over aggression. As always, Ben and Meg balance statistical insight with human emotion—and slip in enough quirks (from prospect rankings to broadcaster shampoo habits) to keep the game’s wild heart alive.

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For full discussion on the remaining trade activity (plus whatever wild post-deadline fallout ensues), the hosts promise a follow-up episode post-deadline.

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[Effectively Wild theme song, philosophical and pedantic as ever...]

Transcript

[A]

A baseball podcast, analytics and stats with Ben and Meg from Fan Grass Effectively.

[B]

Hello and welcome to episode 2513 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fan Graphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, joined by Meg Riley of fangraphs. Hello, Meg.

[A]

Hello.

[B]

We find ourselves conducting a second straight Sunday recording of a regular Effectively Wild episode. Not due to jury duty. That's done.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Or because I couldn't wait to debrief. So to speak about your colonoscopy. Obviously I asked you about that off air on Friday. I wasn't going to wait a whole two days.

[A]

No.

[B]

Or even because I couldn't wait to talk about the WPBL opener on Saturday night. Though I was watching with some dismay as the New York Heights squandered their early leads. Though that was not the only thing that I was paying attention to on Saturday night. And that is why we're here. We're here to talk about more than one trade. We'll catch up with all the pre deadline activity that has happened as we speak here on Sunday afternoon and then we'll catch up on the rest. Post a deadline. But there's one particular trade that summoned us into emergency Sunday recording territory.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And you even suggested it. I did but press you into Sunday recording service. So you know I'm not a Dodgers reactionary. I don't have Dodgers derangement syndrome. But excuse my rare swear. Okay, I'm sort of sick of this. I really am. Not again, Meg. Yeah, The Dodgers, they acquired the best player available despite already being the best team. They did it again. This is well past pattern. This has entered predictable territory.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And I don't know if you felt the same familiar foreboding that I did on Saturday, because A little after 7pm Tulsa time, it was reported that Zaire Hope, the 21 year old outfielder for the Dodgers AA affiliate, though maybe the third best outfielder for the Daily affiliate, but nonetheless a highly rated prospect. It was reported that he had been scratched from the starting lineup at the last second. And that didn't prove anything beyond a reasonable doubt. A mindset. I'm still in. He could have been scratched for any number of reasons. Maybe he had a little injury. Maybe he just needed a day. Maybe he was going to wind up in some other trades. Or maybe there was a possibility that he would wind up in a trade, but it wouldn't actually come to fruition. But no, I had that tingle. I knew that it was that time that Dodgers discourse was rearing its ugly head again. And that the Dodgers were about to trade for Tarek Skubal. And indeed they did. So they did. The two time defending champs have acquired the two time defending Cy Young Award winner for three prospects, Zyre Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith. And all hell has been unleashed yet again.

[A]

I wouldn't say that the discourse is in great shape. I want us to think about this trade through a couple of different lenses. Maybe we can start with sort of assessing the quality of the return relative to expectation, because I think that that might end up being shortest part of the conversation. I do want to spend a bit of time also thinking about sort of Skubal's fit because I, I think that'll also be relatively brief. And then I want to, I want to spend some time sort of thinking through the broader, like, health of baseball part of the conversation. And we don't need to overdo that because we're going to have a lot of time in a potentially very long off season to sort through whether the Dodgers are ruining baseball. Am not. I am also not a certified Dodgers hater. And I am, I am a certified salary cap hater. But I, I, I want to spend time having a sort of a good faith conversation about the Dodgers being the ones that did this deal versus a team like say, the Milwaukee brewers or the Tampa Bay Rays and where we might apportion responsibility for that because that it's a worthwhile conversation. And as much as I find myself sort of worn out by the outrage around it, I think the volume of that outrage suggests a very real problem for the sport. Even if I find it the solution to that problem to be misaligned with what I would prefer and with what I think will actually advance the quality of play for mid and smaller market teams.

[B]

So, yes, and I'll, I'll let you continue, but I will interject and this won't be a surprise to you. I'm not jumping from this sucks to therefore a salary cap is the solution. And I don't even think that this particular Dodgers acquisition is even the best time to invoke that.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

But I think it's possible to both bemoan the Dodgers tendency to acquire almost every single great player that the team tries to acquire.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Without then saying therefore, the answer is X. Right. There may not even be a great answer or the solution, quote, unquote, may be worse than the problem right. In this case. But I do think it's a problem. Okay, continue.

[A]

I think because we have gone round and round on this so many times, I am mindful that I can come off a bit snarky when it comes to the concern of fans of teams that aren't the Dodgers. So I want to make sure that, that we're like really digging in on it in a way that that does justice to those concerns. Because whether or not you believe a cap to be the solution to all of this, and I agree with you, I think it's not. Not only is it not in the general sense, but in terms of the specifics of this acquisition or acquisitions, like it. But it isn't great for the game. We love to have this many fans this dissatisfied to the point that they're like taking the side of Bob Nutting, you know, that suggests something is very, is potentially quite broken. And so I want to engage with that in a serious way because I know I can be a little flippant about it sometimes. So. But let's start with the return here because I think that sort of dialing in the way these particular prospects are viewed is useful to understanding why Detroit sort of went the way that it did potentially. Because you're right to say, you know, River Ryan and Zyre Hope are generally very well regarded. I think we should start with Ryan because that's where I think the divergence in, in both evaluation and valuation is probably the greatest. Because boy, it sure is a little weird that a guy who is like only what, two years younger than Derek Skubel is, is the headliner here. And you know, I know that there are outlets that are a good bit lower on Ryan than we are in our most recent top.

[B]

I would say most places Hope as the headliner. But it varies.

[A]

It varies and I know that I believe that BP just left him off their mid season top 50. River Ryan, yes, they are and I think remain the high publication on Hope, which I don't see to ding them. They have been sort of in on Hope for a long time, but I think they made the decision not to include Ryan and I think their justification, as Jared Seidler articulated it, was his age relative to his prospect status. Because he is, you know, he is a guy who when he debuted in 2024 looked like a big league ready starter. Like he was going to be an important part of that rotation, like he was going to be a guy who exhausted his rookie eligibility at the earliest opportunity and then he needed Tommy John. Right. So he had Tommy John in August of 2024 and then this year, just when he was sort of looking like he was ready to return, particularly for a Dodgers team that had A lot of their star guys in the rot the shelf. He suffered a hamstring injury. It was the second of the season. He's currently on the AAA il. I think our understanding is that he will be back in time for the stretch run. But like he was not available to be of assistance to the Dodgers as they are trying to navigate their way through the absences of Glasnow and Snell and now Ohtani, at least from the rotation. His age certainly complicates the way you think about him, as does his injury history. Right. Because he, he is going to be at his peak, you know, assuming continued good health, which is something that I think we, we can't safely assume here. Though it is reassuring, I guess to some degree that the injury that has him currently sidelined isn't another arm injury. Right. But he is going to be sort of peaking during his team control. So I think that reasonable minds can kind of disagree about how you might want to deal with that. I will say that like, his stuff plays at the major league level based on what we've seen and I think will continue to play. He's a very impressive pitcher. He's got a lot going for him. But where we have him as a 55 future value and the 22nd overall prospect in baseball, he is much lower for other publications. Conversely, there are other pubs that are higher on Hope, who is a 50 for us and in the 50s from an overall rank perspective, really incredible raw power and swing and miss that you have that he will have to deal with and sort of overcome to actualize both that power and, you know, his potential at the major league level. Right. His contact rates have been worryingly low at times during his minor league career. They are trending better and have been better this year. But there was a time where he was running a contact rate like in the 60s, which in at his level was like quite concerning. I also will say that like the, the general industry consensus, and I don't think this is purely blowing smoke, is that like this is an impressive young person who works really hard and who the Dodgers think very highly of as like a human being. And so, you know, if you're a Tigers fan wondering what you're going to get here, I think that there's a lot to like about Zaire Hope and they have an unsettled outfield picture, at least in one of the corners. Right. They just called up Max Clark who did homer. So good job, Max. And you know, they have Riley Greene. But is the combination of like, you know, McKinstry and some of their other utility guys. The answer in left? Probably not.

[B]

They have Green also, of course.

[A]

Right. But in the other corner presumably.

[B]

Right. Yeah, I guess Clark can play center, right? I mean, yeah, he can if. Yeah, that's an outfield of the future, I suppose. At least a short term future, medium term future. But yeah, in the piece I wrote for the Ringer, I looked up the mid season updates, the farm refreshes from eight sources, which was probably more than I actually needed. But everyone had Hope ranked and as you noted, BP was the highest on him at number 20 overall. Fangraphs was the lowest at 57 for Hope. And then for Ryan, six of the eight sources had him ranked somewhere. BP omitted him, as you said, and also Baseball America did and I think fangraphs was the highest, unless you count while Keith Law had him higher even than FanGraphs. Ryan, that is the lowest was MLB Pipeline had him at 68. And yeah, Keith had him 19th, FanGraphs had him 21st. So yeah, the average ranking across those eight sources for Hope was 35. And then Ryan, it really varied because there were a couple sources that left him off entirely and a couple sources that had him higher than Hope.

[A]

Right. And so I think that, you know, depending on how you parse through those differences, it certainly informs what you think of the return that Detroit was able to muster here. There's a reasonable conversation to be had about like how they sequenced this trade, for instance, this getting done Saturday night when the deadline is Monday evening maybe suggests that they had firm no's on whatever their asks were of Milwaukee and Tampa. Just to name the two teams that were sort of apart from the Dodgers, most frequently mentioned with these, with Skubal, just because of the quality of their farm systems. Our farm system rankings, which should be fully up to date here. Well, yeah, because Tampa and Milwaukee would never really change. So we have Tampa first in baseball with the Ruiz not far behind them and now Detroit. So.

[B]

Yep. And the Dodgers fourth even after this trace. Right?

[A]

Yeah, right. And so you know, the, the sheer depth of LA's system and the concentration of outfielders that you noted, I think put them in a good position here. It would not surprise me, and I do not say this with inside information, but it wouldn't surprise me if Detroit went to Tampa Bay and said one Theo Gillen, please. And went to Milwaukee and said one Jesus Madra, please. And both of those teams were like no and hung up.

[B]

Or even Luis Pena or someone. Yeah, right.

[A]

In the third segment. So put a pin in that I'm trying to structure this. We stay on task. If they knew or felt confident that they were not going to get what they wanted from Tampa and Milwaukee and if they worried that the Dodgers would say, hey, you know, use it or lose it, we have other business that we can can conduct here. You know, Reed Demers isn't as good as Scubal. Jose Suriano isn't as good as Scubal. Freddie Peralta is really not as good as Skubel. But like, we'd like another starter and there are other options here that might bolster our postseason rotation. Well, maybe they felt like they had to make this deal now so that they could get what they wanted in a return that they were excited about. There's maybe an argument that waiting would have yielded a better return, but we will never be able to know that one way or the other. I think that for a rental, depending on how you particularly depending on how you feel about River, Ryan Short did pretty well here. Would they have done better if they had waited? Maybe. Would they have done better if they had dealt him last offseason? Absolutely. Like, I think that if they had decided this was their path forward last November, that they are getting multiple consensus, not worried about being dinged up top 100 prospects for a full year of Skubal. But I think they made the reasonable decision that they had a competitive team and that they were, you know, going to be chips in for October. And I give them credit for that.

[B]

Oh, yeah. I don't fault them at all for not trading him earlier. I fault them more for trading him now than I would for not having traded him before.

[A]

Because there's an argument to be made and we've had this conversation a bunch and like, it doesn't help that they've been kind of losing lately, but given how soft the AL field is even with the other teams, that they would have had to either leapfrog or whatever. Like there is an argument to be made that they should have just stood pat.

[B]

Oh yeah.

[A]

And held onto him and seen what they could do with one more ride.

[B]

Absolutely. Entering Sunday, they're two and a half games out of a playoff spot, and I know that there are four teams between them and that third wild card spot and a couple of them are AL Central teams. But.

[A]

Right. And there's some ties in there. And.

[B]

Yeah. And that's hardly insuperable, especially because I do think Detroit's the best team in that division in terms of run differential and just underlying talent. I. I do think that that's the case. And actually I would not be at all surprised if the Tigers still make the playoffs if they do a repeat of 2024 and they trade a starter to the Dodgers at the deadline. It was Jack Flaherty that time and then they have a surge subsequent to that and make the playoffs. It wouldn't even surprise me nearly as much if that happened this time as when it happened the first time. Obviously doesn't help their chances though that they just traded arguably the best pitcher in baseball. I'm just saying that's how much I believe in them, that I think that that's still well within their range of possibilities. Though obviously it would have been easier with Skubal and they could have perhaps gone deeper had they made it if they still had Scubal. So but what you're saying is, I think true, I agree that this was a reasonable, a substantial return. Yeah, I know that for a lot of people who are not prospect hounds and are just seeing Tarek Squibble traded for a few prospects, none of whom is like elite blue chipper, household name type of prosp. And we didn't even really talk about Brady smith who's a 21 year old righty. He is surgically repaired already. He had Tommy John surgery as so many Dodgers pitchers do. And he's pretty promising, but also like Ryan or maybe even more so, just totally Boomer bus could go either way.

[A]

Right?

[B]

I mean he's, he's younger, he's, he was their third round pick in 2023. He's just in high A like right. He's got some good strikeout stuff and everything, but who knows. So yeah, yeah. So that's the package. And relative to what teams get for rentals these days, it's not bad. Which makes sense because Tareks Google is about as good a rental as you're gonna get. Right? So but we went through this recently. Just there's not a lot of history of teams trading anything of substance or giving away some highly, highly rated prospect for someone who is under team control for two to three months. It's just not going to happen. These days teams are just too aware of the calculus and they know that adding one player, even if it's a superstar, only affects your odds so much and you're giving up a ton of long term value there. And at some point you do have to kind of forecast that and add up the wars and do a dollars per win sort of thing. And it would be one thing if you could trade for that superstar and be assured that you were going to get a flag that flew forever from that, but you can't be assured of anything. Maybe you trade for Curtis Mead and he fractures his wrist in his debut for the team or whatever, or it just doesn't make a difference. Most deadline deals don't make the ultimate difference. Right? It's just a lot has to happen for you to make the playoffs by a game or something. And you can trace it back. We acquired this guy or we barely squeaked through in the postseason and it was this guy we acquired at the deadline who came up big and we wouldn't have won without him. It's just pretty rare that you can do that. And the Dodgers are living proof of that because they've made many a major deadline deal and they didn't win the World Series in those seasons. And by the way, the same goes for the prospects you trade at the deadline. Most of them don't pan out. Most of them not only don't turn into players as good as the guy you gave up, but many of them you just never hear from again. They provide marginal value, if anything. Run through the history of the Dodgers. 2017, they traded for you, Darvish, right? 2018, they traded for Manny Machado. 2021, they traded for Max Scherzer and Trey Turner and other guys, bits and Bobs in in those years as well. They didn't win the World Series in any of those three seasons. And the guys they gave up for those marquee players. For Darvish, it was AJ Alexi, Willie Calhoun and Brendan Davis. For Machado, it was Dean Kramer, Zach Pop Breivik, Valera Ryland Bannon and Yuznil Diaz. And for Scherzer and Turner, it was Josiah Gray Ruiz, Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey. I mean, you know, this is like the Dodgers aren't crying over spill prospects in any of those trades, and it's quite possible that they won't in this trade either. And that just kind of goes with the territory. So my overall takeaway, I mean, the headline of my piece for the Ringer and part of my frustration here was that this time teams could have stopped the Dodgers. Because it's not that I think the Tigers got fleeced here necessarily. It's just that I think there are other teams that could have prevented this from happening, that could have just said, no, we want him more. And in so many cases in recent years where we have had the same Dodgers discussion, it's because either the Dodgers outbid everyone or it was because maybe they matched the highest offer and Someone chose them because they're the Dodgers and they have the competitive track record and they have the developmental acumen and they have the creature comforts and they have the favorable location. Whatever it is, there was some differentiator. Maybe it was money, maybe it was money plus other stuff that stymied other teams. And so when the Dodgers got well this past off season, Kyle Tucker, the best player available, or so it was believed, and Edwin Diaz, the most coveted closer. Those guys have combined for less than one win above replacement so far. So nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but people are upset because they went and they got the best guys. Or the winter before that it was Tanner Scott, best reliever available, who's looking more like that now, and at least two of the top three starters, right? Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, different circumstances. Sasaki wasn't so much about the money, but nonetheless. Then the winter before that, they got, I guess, the two best guys, Shohei and Yamamoto, and they traded for Tyler Glass now and then each year before that there was some major marquee acquisition. 2022, it was Freddie Freeman, right? 2021, it was Scherzer and Turner and Trevor Bauer, by the way, in 2020, Mookie Betts like, it's just name after name after name. And credit to the Dodgers for always going after those elite guys. Like when they do dip into free agency and when they splurge, it's usually on a guy that no one has any doubts about. There are some exceptions. Bauer again, but. But in a lot of cases, they're sort of shopping at the top of the market. That's not to say they don't sign some mid tier free agents too, but they really zero in on those elite guys. It's like Andrew Friedman gave a quote last week, there just aren't that many star level players in the game. Which by the way, makes it more frustrating that so many of them play for the Dodgers. And he continued, anytime one is available, we're always going to participate in those conversations. We've shown to be very aggressive in the past and the present, unfortunately for everyone else. So that's the thing though. When it was free agents, people could say, well, this was inevitable. We couldn't possibly beat the Dodgers. They were always bound to outbid us, or at least their pitch would be more compelling for other reasons. And Ty goes to the Dodgers basically. And it wasn't always tied. In this case, though, that didn't really apply because the Tigers certainly weren't out to do a solid for the Dodgers or anything like The Tigers were trying to get the best deal they could and Tarex Kuble had no say in this matter. He had no, no trade clause. He couldn't block a deal or orchestrate any particular destination. And so it was purely just who is going to give the Tigers the best prospect package here and the Dodgers did, and other teams at least conceivably could have. And I understand why some of them didn't, but they could have. Or the Tigers for that matter could have said, you can't have Tarek Skouble. We're keeping him because we believe in ourselves. So this was a case where the Dodgers could have been beaten, they could have been stopped, and no one stepped up to stop them. And we can get into more maybe why the Dodgers advantages made them more likely to do that. But this is one of the times that just makes me question, does anyone want to win as much as the Dodgers do?

[A]

Yeah, I think that that's fair. I want to keep to our script, which I did not share with you in advance. But before we move on so quickly, I mean we should just say like this, this did move and this is not going to help my argument later. Yeah, this did, this did move their playoff odds like kind of appreciable, at least in the way that, in the way that a individual transaction can. And if anything, and again, I'm gonna, I'm gonna say this in the interests of being honest, lest I be accused of being a dodger head. Like if anything, they're maybe underselling the playoff specific impact of this in the World Series odds because our World Series odds don't really handle exactly the way that pitching in particular is deployed come October. I mean it's, it, it's in there some. But like the, it's not perfectly accounting for usage. So the fact that it moved them like 5 percentage points this week, I

[B]

know underselling it even, that's nuts. That might not sound like a lot, but that is, that's a huge when it comes to World Series. And, and by the way, and you could say the saving grace is, well, the Dodgers still are given a less than 1 in 3 chance to win the World Series, which I believe because it's baseball and there's only so much you can play off proof a team or rotation though the Dodgers are pulling all the stops out to do just that. But 31% or whatever it is, that's a huge number when it comes to World Series odds because of that randomness and because of the 12 team playoff field, that's more than three times higher than the next highest team. So like, yes, they're still. The field is favored over the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are like lapping every other team. I mean by multiple laps maybe and, and just going up from 25 to 31 or whatever it was. Ish. As you said. Five, five and a half percentage points.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Just that marginal increase which for the Dodgers is about a 20% uptick in their World Series odds. That's about half the total World Series odds of any other team. The Yankees, the Brewers, Whoever's next. Like 5 percentage points is like half of their whole chances that the Dodgers just got by getting scubal, which you're saying might even undersell it. I mean it sounds like a lot because the Dodgers aren't really even helping their odds of making the playoffs by getting Scuba because.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Cause they're a lock. Right. I mean they have a double digit lead in the.

[A]

Yeah, they can't, they can't really do any. I mean it would take a. I'm going to say unprecedented. And there might actually be precedent, so. Yeah, but it would take like an, an unprecedented collapse.

[B]

Yes. I mean, you know, I guess last year's AL Central exists, so maybe when it comes to blowing a division, but.

[A]

Yeah, but that's a, that's. You gotta take that in. In AL Central adjusted terms. Right. That's a different, that's an entirely different animal.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Than, than what we're dealing with here. It would take something. I mean like I, I hate to put it in these terms. It would take something catastrophic happening to the team.

[B]

Yeah. Oh yeah. Yeah. So the Dodgers didn't even need Tarik Skubal to get to October. There are plenty of teams that are kind of on the bubble or, or maybe their playoff birth isn't entirely assured. Where scubal could have helped improve those odds and then also upped their odds if they made the playoffs. The Dodgers. This is purely a playoffs play. I mean they, they did not have to lift a finger to make it to October, so.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Yeah. It's wild.

[A]

And I think that the change in. And maybe we can use this to transition into the conversation about sort of what this means for baseball. I think understanding the lens through which they see their roster building relative to maybe not the entire rest of the league, but much of the rest of the league helps to explain some of the difference here. Right. This team is so good that they're not planning for the, the regular season. The regular season. It's, you know, it's obviously important. You do actually have to get results on the field, but they have so much redundancy baked into their, to their organization, you know, depth that is unfathomable to most teams. They're set up to weather Snell being on the shelf for a couple of months and Glasnow being on the shelf for a couple of months. They're. They're built to weather Ohtani, you know, being unable to pitch for however long. They're built to do that. And so they're. The way that they orient their roster. And I think part of the reason that they are so aggressive when it comes to top end talent and sort of. Not that they're indifferent to the results of the, the smaller deals they do because they care about those deals, right? Like, they were fine to let Michael Conforto walk. They also will get, you know, have guys who they just like and even if the production isn't like so stellar that they couldn't afford to, to see them go, they'll. They'll sign them to extensions, right? Like, they didn't need to make sure that Miguel Rojas was like a Dodger for a long time, but they like that guy and they like what he brings to their team. And so here he is being, being on their team for multiple years. You know, they love, they love Kike Hernandez. They love that guy.

[B]

Playoff Kike. Gotta have him, right?

[A]

And I was just about to say, I don't. I am very confident that if you were to ask Andrew Friedman, like, do you. Do you think there's anything to this that he would be like, no, of course not. But like, I don't know. There's an argument to be made that their continued attachment to, you know, a utility player who has been good for them at times and, you know, certainly seems to thrive there relative to other places is like them being October oriented in their roster construction. Right.

[B]

Like, Friedman might even say as much. You could say that he's been a bit complacent with the benches sometimes, which maybe doesn't matter that much because they have just such stars at every other position. It's almost like an afterthought. But the fact that they keep bringing back certain guys and those guys have gotten huge hits or even have a pretty impressive track record of doing so in a not insignificant sample in Kike's case, I would think that they might actually subscribe to something like that or, or just the pure kind of clubhouse presence or whatever it is. Right. I think they would say that there's a little more to him than meets the eye during the regular season. Right.

[A]

So that's the way that the Dodgers understand their project and they are bolstered by a tremendous resource advantage in pursuit of that project. And let's talk about that as we transition into sort of the broader concern here because I think it would be insincere to say that the Dodgers do not have an advantage relative to the rest of baseball. The contours of that advantage, one of them could arguably be addressed, quote unquote. Although I still both don't think that it really guarantees the parity that the league is purporting and is bad for players and it's anti labor. But only one of the advantages that the Dodgers have can be poked at via salary cap and that is the payroll advantage. And that's a big advantage. Right. I think every team in baseball can afford to spend more on their club in an on field capacity than they do. I am not going to tell you that the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Milwaukee brewers or the Tampa Bay Rays can spend as much as the Dodgers can. I think that's insincere. I don't think that that's true. I think they can spend a lot more than they do and I think that their sort of return on investment in that payroll expansion would be profound given, I mean, maybe les Pittsburgh pushed them out of it. We're going to talk about the brewers and the Rays a lot for the next couple of minutes. Okay? So like leave Bob nutting aside for a second. But you know, I think that their return on investment would be, would be profound because they can compete to a large degree even if it's not, you know, a complete one for one match with the other advantage that the Dodgers have, which is all of the, the people and infrastructure that they have invested in away from the field. The Dodgers don't pick at the top of the draft. They haven't picked at the top of the draft in a decades time. In a long time. Right? And so some of their ability to do deals like this, right, to be players at the deadline for these big marquee names and outbid other people is that there's, you know, there's a lot of talent in the draft. You don't have to be the number one overall pick in the draft to be a good minor leaguer or an eventually really good big leaguer. Right? But the top of the draft, it helps. There are really good guys and that's not where LA is picking. And so some of it is that they are really good at, you know, identifying guys that in the area of the draft where they are picking they have a comfort level with guys who they know to be dinged up and particularly guys who they understand to potentially be in need of major surgery. Right. They're not afraid to take a guy they know needs Tommy John and say eh, yeah, we got a number of years with him, we'll figure it out. Right. We think he can bounce back. We like what he shows on the mound when he's healthy, we're going to take him anyway. Right. So there, there's a risk tolerance there that is absolutely borne by the depth that they have and their faith in their player devs. So like these are all related. I don't mean to completely like disaggregate this advantage that they have but you know, they draft really well, they develop really well, they are good at the creature comfort stuff that you're describing and it puts them in a position to be able to say, hey, even though we haven't drafted at the top of the the draft in a long time, we're gonna turn Michael Bush into Z Hope and we're gonna turn Zer Hope into Derek Skubel and we're gonna turn

[B]

Matt Beatty into River Ryan. It's just, yeah, a treadmill. It's just, let's recycle guys we don't have positions for.

[A]

This is our perpetual motion machine and we're gonna go and go and go. To their credit, even though we sometimes give Milwaukee and Tampa Bay the business about what they spend on payroll or what their ownership groups will let them spend on payroll, they're really good at drafting and developing too and they have a good strategy that is specific to their market and Milwaukee is really great at this go wide approach and they find all these dudes and their hitting dev is obviously awesome. And in the last five years they had great luck with hitters who have been like post hype guys or even dudes in their own organization like Bryce Turing who they're able to help actualize finally because it's like, oh, now he hits for power and he's one of the best players in baseball. We're going to take Andrew Vaughn and we're going to turn him from a guy who Meg makes jokes about not being able to see the ball well enough because eyes are really close together on his head to a dude with a 143. Andrew Vaughn is a 143 WRC plus Finn. Sorry, I'm just like I knew he was having a good season and I know that he's he's had some injury stuff. So, like, this is 66 games and 207 plate appearances. So I don't want to make too much of it. But also. Jesus christ.

[B]

Yeah, I know.

[A]

1:43 WRC plus, right?

[B]

And seemingly another example of what I talked about on episode 2500, the phenomenon of players just sort of deciding to get better all of a sudden and then just doing it or getting some seemingly simple advice or instruction and then immediately being better. When Vaughn went to the brewers, they were just like, stop chasing. If you chase like that, you're not going to play. And he was just like, oh, all right.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

I mean, it's always more complicated than that. But boy, it sure seems a little

[A]

like it's that Jake Bowers. How, how on God's green earth do you explain Jake Bowers? Because he's played in 100 games this season. He has almost plate appearances and he has a 141 WRC plus. What is that business, Right? So they, they have had success with this. We know about the, the Rays player dev and their pitching development and what they've been able to do with guys. And you know, both of those clubs are sitting at the top of their respective divisions right now. The brewers have the best record in baseball technically because they have the same number of wins as the Dodgers and one fewer losses. Their run differential is second to the Dodgers. If you look at their base runs records, they're like a game or two off from one another. So that's a quality club in a mid market team in a mid market payroll situation that isn't spending a lot and is really good. They have been able to, with investment in their infrastructure and player dev and a kind of ruthless approach to their roster, which we often fault them for, but often works for them. Right? Have been able to be competitive during the regular season and advance for the postseason, and yet they haven't been able to get over the hump. Although the pitching hasn't been the problem for Milwaukee. Typically it's been an inability to score runs.

[B]

But if there's any pitcher in the world better than Tarek Skubal, he's a Milwaukee Brewer and his name is Jacob Misk.

[A]

Jacob Miski. Right. So. So if you're Milwaukee or you're Tampa and your business model is predicated on we draft and develop really well, we keep these guys and the minute they get expensive, we ship them out of town. A couple of exceptions. Then if Detroit comes calling and they want Theo Gillen or Jesus Maday, maybe you do say no, because the way that you do business doesn't allow for the, the risk tolerance that the LA is just able to absorb. Because, look, obviously Derek Scubal is going to have a big impact on their postseason roster, assuming health and availability and all those things. He doesn't guarantee them anything. And if it doesn't work out for them this year, well, they'll just spin

[B]

up again next season, possibly with Tarek Skuple still. We can talk about that. But no, it's true.

[A]

Again, it's potentially quite different for Milwaukee or Tampa. If they move their very best guys and then they're looking around six months from now because camp is starting, that's too soon. But you know what I'm saying, They're looking around in February because camp is starting, she says optimistically. And all of a sudden they're like, we really could use Jesus modding. Right? So I understand the approach that Milwaukee and Tampa are taking here. And now I'm going to say something that might surprise you based on how I've wound up so far. I do think on some level it sucks. It doesn't suck. Insofar as both of those teams have played really good competitive baseball for a long time. Both of them have post season success to point to. That is really exciting. I think that Milwaukee is going to be a problem for the NL field come October, even with the Dodgers the way they are. But they haven't been able to get over the hump. Yeah, and like you are so stacked in the farm and I don't know that I would be giving up Jesus mate either. But as you noted, it's not like he's their only top 100 guy. Luis Bay is a 55. You know he's 26th in baseball.

[B]

Logan Henderson recently graduated. So not that you want to give up Henderson either. I know they, they have the, the best rotation in baseball by fan graphs war just edging out the Dodgers. So they, they have plenty of pitching. But that didn't stop the Dodgers, who have even more maybe. And there is part of me that wants those teams to be uncharacteristically aggressive and just go yolo and just say like we've gotten close a number of times. Maybe what's holding us back from getting over the hump is being a bit too disciplined or conservative or however you want to play it.

[A]

Right.

[B]

This one time we're throwing caution to the wind, wins. We're going to go get the best guy. I would like that. That would be fun. And I think it would be Good for baseball if you didn't have the predictable outcome of the best guy going to the best team so many times. Not every time. There are occasionally times when the Dodgers miss out on someone.

[A]

Sure.

[B]

Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Max Scherzer when they tried to resign him, or they decide they don't want to keep someone. Corey Seeger or someone. Yeah, right. But in, in many of those cases it's like, well, did they go all out though? Or were they kind of okay with not wanting them? But yeah, they don't get absolutely everyone. But it would be nice if the talent were a bit more democratically distributed here. It's never going to be perfect parody and all the players are just spread out, doled out. You know, every team gets a great guy and it's just all even. But it's so concentrated Now. I, I looked at the rest of season projections for FIP by starting pitchers at Fan Grass according to the depth charts. So ZiPS plus steamer. The Dodgers now have the numbers one that's go 12, Ohtani, 16, Yamamoto, 21 Glasnow, and 23 Snell starters in baseball. So they have five of the top 23. And I know that three of those guys aren't currently pitching and who knows how many of them will be come October. But then again, that doesn't even include Justin Rubleski, who is an all Star this year. Emmett Sheehan, Roki Sasaki with his huge glove. You know, if they don't need those guys, they'll move them to the pen like they did last year. Except unlike last fall, they actually have a half decent bullpen now and they, they have Tanner Scott and everything. So it's just right and, and he's good now again. And so it's just a total embarrassment of riches. So obviously they're just kind of coddling these guys to some extent and just trying to make sure that they're all healthy and that rotation peaks at the right time. And so it's almost like Schuyl's insurance, which sounds ridiculous, but I mean, he's the best guy they, they have probably, but it's almost like, you know, if, if they have the other four guys and whoever else healthy, then they hardly need him, but they can't quite count on having. So now basically, if they have those guys healthy, which is a big if, but even if one of them's hurt or something, it's not like it's a huge step down and you don't even need five starters in the postseason really, so they're going to have basically a top 20ish starting pitcher going every single day in October. It's just so stacked that it's ridiculous. So that is the big difference. I think that the Dodgers have the freedom to say prospects, well, we can always make more of them. And also, even if we have them, we don't have a place to play some of them. And because this is their hope, as good as he is, is their third or fourth best outfield prospect. Right? Because they have Depala, who's their top prospect. And then they also have Sirota, not Soroka, not Sorotka, but Sirota. He is their maybe third best prospect. And then they have Eduardo Quintero who's a level down at high A. I mean, I mean it's like DePaula and Sirota are also at Double A and are as close to the majors as Hope and, and maybe even better. They're hitting better. Right. So.

[A]

Right.

[B]

It sort of stinks because the Dodgers did give up meaningful value here and yet it doesn't hurt them at all really. I mean it doesn't cost them a thing. I mean it could turn out that Hope is the best of all of them and, and they actually rue the day they dealt him or something. But sure, given that they have Pahis now sort of entrenched in center right, plus Tucker under contract for at least one more season, maybe more, plus this wealth of other similar if not superior prospects, it's like dealing these guys didn't ding their long term outlook at all really. And even, even Ryan, if he pans out, it's like The Dodgers have 10 guys who are as, as good or as good as or better than him, you know, so it's not that the Tigers got a bad deal, it's just that the Dodgers have so much that this doesn't actually affect their, their long term outlook. If it turns out that Skubal is just a rental and doesn't resign or extend.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Right. They won't even feel it. They won't notice the difference. Probably it's nuts. But, but it is a meaningful difference that the Dodgers can operate in a way that the brewers and Rays can't. At least as easily. Because in this case the, the salary wasn't really the impediment. Cuz you know, anyone could have.

[A]

And there was reporting to that end, right. That that was not a, that was not a deterrent to either of these clubs to despite the payrolls that they run because it's like what, 9, 9,

[B]

9 or 10 million for the rest of the way it's, you know, for, for Scubal. It's if, if that's stopping you, then middle reliever money. Yeah. So, yeah, that's. So it really was the prospect capital that presumably prevented them from topping this offer, which they, they could have, they could have put superior packages together.

[A]

They have the sheer prospect.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Talent.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

To exceed what. What the Dodgers offered them. And, and, and that's why I view this kind of. I mean, it's maybe adjacent to, but importantly different than the Roki signing. Right. Because the money with Roki wasn't a problem for anyone. Right. Anyone could have afforded Roki's salary and certainly his signing bonus because he was limited by the, the pool rules for internationals because of his age. So anyone could have done it. The, the, the razzle dazzle of the Dodgers is what ultimately swayed rookie. Well, you can't do anything about that. And so that is different than this situation where the players involved across the board don't have any say. So I want to, I want to make sure that I'm sort of differentiating between those appropriately. But it is similar insofar as you noted, that there, there is a better hypothetical prospect package available in baseball that could have been offered here and presumably would have swayed them. Like if, if the, if the brewers say, screw it, we want Tarek Skubal, they can, they can outbid.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

LA on this. And so could, so could Tampa.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Presumably.

[B]

And there might have been other teams that could have teams that, that operate in bigger markets or with higher payrolls because yes, the, the Rays and the brewers, they've gotten to this point and they're perennially relevant and in contention because they have such message discipline or you know, they don't stray. They don't say, oh, this one time we're going to get away now they perhaps could stand to, from time to time, perhaps they take that to an extreme. But I think that is part of why they've been so successful is that they don't let themselves get emotional about things and say, oh, we're going to for it and hell or high water, we're getting our guy. They do think about it in this kind of cool, collected, calculated and sometimes sure, infuriating way. And it helps in the long run. And it, it, they rely on those cost controlled, pre r. Pre free agency guys to sort of level the playing field and help them compete with teams that spend more. Could they also spend more? Yeah, to some extent, but obviously not as much as you said. So. So there's also the extension question Because I think it's almost presumed that, well, Schuylkill's just going to stay with the Dodgers now and I certainly wouldn't be surprised. I think you'd have to say they're the favorites. They were probably already the favorites. Of course, I think it's unlikely that he's going to sign an extension. It could happen. But Boris client, right.

[A]

And he's just, he'll almost certainly test the ball.

[B]

Yeah. He's so close that, that, you know, there's hardly any downside other than, I guess, you know, he could always break. Right. But in the next couple months. But barring that, it would seem to behoove him to test the open market. Put his elbow boo boo and his loose body further behind him if he has a big finish for the Dodgers. And also it's not as if the Dodgers, this wasn't like a glass now trade and extend sort of deal.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And so even if he does end up re upping with them, I mean even if he surprises people and, and signs an extension, it's not as if they couldn't have persuaded him to sign as a free agent. Right. So I don't see that as being a huge thing. I mean, yes, if you're the Razor brewers, you, you almost certainly know that it is going to be a two or three month short term thing because you're just not going to spend enough to keep him. But the Dodgers didn't really need to trade for him in order to sign him. I guess there's also the question of, of the lockout and how does that play into things? Does that affect his calculus at all when it comes to signing an extension. If the Dodgers were to make him a big offer, would he maybe say, ah, you never know, maybe 2027's canceled. Maybe it's more likely to be canceled if I sign this extension with the Dodgers. But, but maybe I just sidle around that risk and this is where I want to be and it's a good deal and so you never know, it could happen, I guess. And maybe it comes into play with one of those other teams that's not going to sign him. But, but I think it's mostly the other thing, just that they rely on those cheap guys, the guys who are under team control forever. There are other teams that were rumored to be interested in Skubal. Obviously every team is interested in him on some level. But realistically, seriously interested. Now maybe if you're the Yankees, you say we've got a strong starting five. Probably not as strong as the Dodgers or the Brewers. But. But Cam Schlitler, Max Freed, Garrett Cole, Ryan Weathers, Will Warren. That's not too shabby. So maybe we want to hang on to George Lombard Jr. You know, maybe, maybe Anthony Volpe isn't the cornerstone of our franchise at short, maybe we don't want to deal Lombard for a couple months of Tarek Skubel. Okay, what about the Cubs? Right? The. The Cubs were connected to Scubal. No one needs pitching more than the Cubs. The Cubs should have money to spend. I know that they don't have the system that the Dodgers and Brewers and Rays do, but. But it's not bereft. It's a, it's a middle of the pack system. And they had three guys on the fan graphs midseason update from late July. They had three prospects between number 47 and number 56. So, you know, I gotta think that they could conceivably have put a package together and maybe it would have cleaned out their system, but they could have put a package together that would have at least rivaled this Dodgers deal. And as we speak, we don't know we haven't gotten behind the scenes. Here's what this team offered and here's what the. For all we know, there, there were appealing offers. Maybe the Tigers were super high on Hope and Ryan or whatever. You never know. Maybe their internal ranking and pref list of of these guys didn't match the public consensus. That's always possible, too. But just saying there had to be some other team out there that could have matched this and maybe some bigger market teams. And then also the Tigers also could have said, no, we're not going to give you Terry Scuba. We want Terence Goble. He's our guy. We're close. We have a realistic shot at this. So put all those things together. And that's what I find frustrating. I don't blame the Dodgers for operating within the constraints such as they are of the system that they're in and maximizing their advantage. And it's not just money. They're not just the Mets. Right, right. Sorry, sorry. Mets catching strays here.

[A]

But I mean, no, I think that that's a good, it's a good comp to bring in because Cohen's basically been trying to replicate their model since he took over the team. And I do think they have made progress in some important areas. Like they are certainly a much better pitching dev organization than they were before he bought them. So you are starting to see some of the returns from that personnel and infrastructure investment but yeah, they haven't been able to do anything.

[B]

No, you can't just declare yourself Dodgers east and be Dodgers east. And you can't spend like the Dodgers and necessarily have the success that the Dodgers have had because they spend a lot, but they also usually spend smart and they don't make many major missteps. And the ones that they do, yeah, they can just swallow those and absorb them. Yeah. But they don't make that many.

[A]

I have a lot of respect for what like Milwaukee and Tampa do because I think they are importantly differentiated from. Okay, now I'm going to bring Pittsburgh back in. You know, I think they are importantly differentiated from some of the perpetual cellar dwellers and things are shaping up better in Pittsburgh this season than it has, than they have in a while. But, you know, I do think that the brewers and the, the Rays have a seriousness of purpose. Right. That there is ambition in those organizations. And I think that when you're a fan of a team and they show, I'm going to do a big swear, they show the like, let's go energy. It does change things. I was thinking about, as I was winding down from editing Ben's reaction to the trade. I was thinking about the brewers and the raise of it all in conversation with the Luis Castillo trade from 2022. And we'll get to some of the other deals that went down this weekend in a bit, but that move when the Mariners traded for cast SEO at the deadline, big prospect package, they may be hyped up their guys and so, you know, there's that. But like big prospect package, really well regarded dudes, they spent a lot in prospect capital. Excuse the kind of gross way of talking about human beings. And it, it was this signal that like, no, we're, we're, we're doing it now. We're, we're tired of this drought. We're getting this monkey off our back, right? This is the guy to help us do it. And then they signed him to an extension. It sort of reoriented the expectations of the fan base in a way that candidly, like, they haven't always done a great job of living up to in the intervening time. And I know that that maybe sounds harsh, you know, in a year that comes right after they were like one went away from finally making the World Series hashtag 54%. Right. But it signaled a real commitment to ambition. And I think that that is increasingly the way to, to think about the problem that faces the sport. And I wonder if it's a way that I can maybe Talk about it. That'll be more compelling to people. Because I think that the problem that baseball faces right now is that there is a feeling among fans who are not fans of the Dodgers that, like, what's the point? They're just going to win the World Series, right? That there is a predestination to the. The season. And even though we know the postseason has this element of randomness that makes that not true in, in a technical way. And you know, some of us can. And here I will be momentarily snarky. I feel like I've done a very good job of not being snarky, though, because it's important to grapple with it. Right. It's a real concern. And I think the way we talk about it needs to account for that. And I have maybe not done a great job of that in the last little bit because I've been. Been so annoyed with Rob Manfred.

[B]

And also it keeps happening, you know, and so, I mean, the conversation that we were having three or four major signings ago, well, when it happens over and over again, then we'd be silly not to update the tone, not take it seriously.

[A]

But I think that the problem is increasingly one of ambition versus not. And I am mindful that the architecture of payroll is certainly a manifestation of that. And it is a huge part of people's ability to enjoy the regular season. And it is not a sufficient answer. Even though it's true. It isn't maybe sufficient for us to say, well, the postseason is random. And it's like, well, that's true. And you know, here's the snark. Like, I remember the Dodgers getting swept out of the playoffs by literally the Arizona Diamondbacks. And they didn't just get swept out, they got frickin rinsed. Right? I remember that. That was in 2023. You know, that just happened. And. And I do think that we have a problem collectively of like, having really short memories around this stuff and that we ascribe a permanent to things that doesn't necessarily comport with reality. It wasn't that long ago, it really wasn't that long ago at all that the way we talked about the Dodgers was this is a big payroll team that's super talented and they can't get over the finish line. They just can't do it. And we sat there and we like, excuse my swear, fretted. It's Sunday, so I'm a little looser. We fretted over Clayton Kershaw and like,

[B]

should be less likely to swear on

[A]

the Lord's Day, I don't observe those rituals. And you know, can Dave Roberts manage his way through this and all this stuff? And last year, you know, it wasn't a given. Like, if Orion Kirker can field his position, maybe they're not even in the World Series. Right. Among other, among other things that happen that helps them on their way. But, you know, it would be disingenuous to say they lucked into that championship either. Yamamoto threw on zero days rest.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

That was amazing. Like, that was bonkers, right? Andy Boss made that great play in the outfield. He almost killed Hernandez doing it. But like, that still counts. So having more fans feel like they're in it and invest in the regular season I think is important to the future of the sport. And it's funny that the Dodgers are the ones ruining that for people because they don't give a shit about the regular season. I mean, they do, but they, but they don't. Right. So how do you close the ambition gap? And that's where. Apart from, apart from the labor questions attendant with a cap? That's where I find the cap to be a wanting solution because one, it doesn't address in really to anyone's satisfaction or it wouldn't address to anyone's satisfaction the advantages away from payroll that LA has. And I say that conceding that many of those advantages are intertwined with an and in part facilitated by the payroll advantage. So I don't want to separate them entirely. But like, again, the brewers are a good dev team. Like, they are a good baseball team. This is a talented club. Right. And they are able to do a lot of that stuff that isn't payroll as well as the Dodgers, even if they end up being prospect huggers at the end of it, in part because they don't have the payroll part of it. So that conceded like the ambition gap, that's a bigger problem. And you don't solve that with a cap. I don't think that if you look around capped sports that you fix that problem. And by the way, ask NBA fans how they enjoy the regular season and payroll conversations, they hate that stuff because it, it sucks. And this isn't just me being lazy about not wanting to learn about an apron, although that is part of it.

[B]

Yes, and, and look, a floor conceivably could help with the ambition problem.

[A]

Absolutely. But, and that is, that is something that the, the Players association has asked for and the owners say we're not doing a floor without a cap. And their commitment to the cap isn't really about ensuring Parity. I know that they say that, and I don't, you know, we don't have to take the PA at its word either, in terms of like, parity being its primary priority. They haven't said that.

[B]

And obviously the union's not going to do a cap without a floor. Right. So.

[A]

Right. And. And they're not going to do a cap at all. And they're. They, I think, are more, as I've said before, more directionally aligned with competition based on their proposals. But their, their number one priority, as well it should be, is to make. Make their members as much money as they can. And so, you know, I don't think that it is a, it is a genuine number one priority to either side of this negotiation. And I think that the cap system is very often, it serves as a cap on that ambition, too, because it's like, oh, is that guy. And I know that Bruce Meyers just said this, but I promise it's a thought that's been in my head before. The head of the union said it. Is that guy, the guy who's going to make a difference to you? Well, too bad. You can't. Can't exceed the cap, you know, so if you want him, you got to trade these other dudes. You're never going to make me excited about what the Washington Wizards have done in the NBA ever. You're never. That's never going to jazz me. Right. Or, you know, the Jazz, for that matter. So I think that we need to talk in more direct terms about the problem at hand, while still I think making the point, which I believe to be true, that the solutions that have been proposed on the owner's side are not a direct answer to those problems either because you don't necessarily need a payroll like the Dodgers to be a very good draft and development organization, or because it's about ambition. It's about the will to win in these circumstances. Circumstances. And in some ways, it's easy to have ambition when your best player is arguably underpaid relative to the value he's accruing to your organization. And you don't have to take my word for it. Like, I heard Bazin making this point too on Dan Patrick's show, where it's like the money that they are bringing in just from having Ohtani on that team is bonkers. Right. And so I think that fans of other teams are well within their rights to be annoyed and they are pointing at something that is real, which is this feeling. But I, first of all, don't think we're ever going to fully remediate that feeling because put a cap on the Dodgers tomorrow, they're still best in class when it comes to drafting and development. The sort of tales of that advantage are going to be long. Even when you take away the sort of payroll support to it. Right. They're still going to be a really good organization. That doesn't mean that they will suddenly, you know, that another club that is also good at that can't surpass them. But like that, that part of their advantage relative to much of the rest of the league will persist. I think it's not going to get Bob Nutting to care, you know, it's not going to get the owners of the Reds to care. If you put the system in. Sure. They'll have to spend more than they do. They will. I guarantee you manage that floor to the fricking dollar. They'll manage it to the dollar. Right. It will not solve the ambition problem. It just won't. Yeah. And so I think that there is, you know, there needs to be a shift and I think a reorientation in how we talk about this stuff. And I could stand to be less glib about it, but I really do think that there is a broader rot that is the, the main, the main issue. And look, I hesitate to even say this, not that I'm like some powerful witch. Skubal's next start is going to be what, like next Sunday? He could blow out and then what?

[B]

Sure.

[A]

I mean, he could, right?

[B]

Yeah, yeah, we, we didn't really talk about Skubal's performance because he's Derek Skubal. I figure people are pretty familiar with him by now. But I had some slight concerns after he came back from the nano needle super fast and was not quite his usual self for a few starts. He was pretty homer prone and maybe some of it was bad luck. And if you adjust for that and look at his ex fip, for instance, it was pretty flat during that time, but he was giving up a lot of runs and his pitch speeds are down almost a mile per hour since last season on average. So, so there could have been some causes for concern, but I think based on his more recent performance, I'm not really worried about him any more than I am about every pitcher, which is a lot. But, but, but not more than the norm because yeah, in his, his last handful of starts, he's basically been as dominant as ever. He leads all pitchers in FanGraphs war since June 30th. Like all the, the, all the metrics are basically back to being where they were. So is there a little elevated concern because of the loose body and everything? Yeah, I suppose, but I'm not that worried about it, at least on the spectrum of all Dodgers, whose elbows I'm perpetually terrified about. So. And I, I don't know really what could lead to the dissolution of the Dodgers, because you might think that it'll catch up to them at some point if they keep just trading prospects and getting older guys. They are an old team. They do have the oldest hitters in baseball, and some of those guys, at least offensively, are showing some signs of decline. I don't know what's going on with Tucker, but Mookie, for instance, okay, he can play shortstop pretty well, but he's not hitting like Mookie Betts used to. So you could say, oh, it'll catch up to them, and it has for a lot of other teams that pursued that model. But it just seems like unless some catastrophe strikes, as we talked about last time, unless Mark Walters fortune and or health is done in, then I don't, I don't know how you could confidently project that they would ever not be good for any foreseeable time in the future, because it does seem like they can kind of keep going because they keep signing the elite guys and then they mix in some young guys from time to time, like Yamamoto or Sasaki or Ohtani or whoever, who are pretty young when they get them. And it does seem like they can just kind of keep it running. And unless the money spigot turns off somehow or they do make a bunch of mistakes and they commit to the wrong player and they're just so choked up that there's no playing time for anyone who's good. It's just hard for me to see that happening. I'm not particularly conspiratorial, but I have to think that on some level, Rob Manford must have been rubbing his hands when he saw this deal get done, because for much of this season, the narrative was, was pretty anti cap, or at least it was pretty easy to undercut MLB's argument that there was a huge acute competitive balance problem. And people were writing things to this effect. I mean, just a few days ago, Ken Rosenthal wrote a column for the Athletic, which is basically like the standings belie the argument that there is some sort of pervasive problem here because there's barely any correlation between payroll and winning this season. It's like the weakest correlation since before the strike. And entering Sunday's games, even you had Seven teams that were more than four games removed from a playoff spot. Just. It was hard to look at the standings and make the case that, oh, boy, this is a big problem. And even the Dodgers, like last year, yeah, they're really good. They're almost certainly the best team in baseball, but it's not like they're running away with things. The brewers have been just about as good. Maybe Skubal gives the Dodgers the edge and helps their postseason seeding or something, but it's not like they were making a run at 116 wins or something. Obviously, they're not motivated to do that. They haven't blown everyone out of the water when it comes to the regular season. But now adding Scubal, I think suddenly refocuses everyone's attention on the Dodgers, which is what MLB has been trying to do pretty explicitly with its ad campaign and with some of its messaging to draw fans attention to the Dodgers specifically or to spending imbalance more generally. And this is like earned media now. I mean, Rob doesn't even have to run the MLB TV campaign for a while. He can just sit back and. And the Dodgers have done his dirty work for him because everyone's just talking about the Dodgers. They've broken baseball again. So that was part of why I just sort of, oh, here we go again. You know, sort of CJ from GTA San Andreas, which is essentially Los Angeles. The. The. Here we go again. Like, I just. I knew we were in for it after having gotten a bit of a reprieve because of the Dodgers not being so spectacular and lots of other teams that weren't expected to be good or weren't big spenders being good and then other big spenders being bad, et cetera. It felt like, oh, boy, it's about to come back with a vengeance. So here we are, and we do want to touch on a few other traits, so I guess we should do that. And. And the Rays, by the way, did end up making a trade. We have been talking about the one they didn't make. They then pivoted, and on Sunday, they settled for Freddie Peralta. So former Brewer involved in this one as well. And this was also for a prospect package. So the Rays have acquired Freddie Peralta for Eden Smith, Emilian Petrae, and my favorite name, Gary Gil Hill. I mean, that's just the best.

[A]

People are losing their gourds over Gary Gil Hill's name in a way that I. Well, this is gonna make me sound like a prospect snob. I'm like, what are you not familiar with Gary Gilhill.

[B]

Many people aren't.

[A]

But tell me you didn't 30 less without telling me you didn't edit 30 list. Yeah, like they, they took a more of a sort of go wide approach to this one than, than say Detroit did to, to trading school. You know we have a 45 on Gil Hill, we have a 40 plus on Smith, we have a 40 on Petrie. You know, this is like hey, this starter is bad and hasn't been very good and let's see what we can make of these guys. Gil Hill is a starter, a double A. Smith is a center fielder, is a second baseman. So that was the sort of approach that they took for it. Given Peralta's struggles, I think that that's a reasonable return all things considered. I can see the appeal of Peralta to the Rays where you know, I, I just said that the Mets have been a better pitching dev organization and I think that's true. I think that the race track record around that is a little longer so they'll see what they can make of him. But yeah, that was their move. Which I guess means the best available starter on the market right now is Reed Detmers. Yeah, that was true before got traded.

[B]

But yeah, assuming that the Angels actually do put players, if they hold on

[A]

to those two guys, it doesn't, it doesn't matter what you think of Detroit's return that they will have lost the deadline. If, if those two dudes are Angels at the end of the day on Monday, then John Moselek should not be made a non interim gm. That would be a bonkers outcome.

[B]

If that's the case, I doubt it will be his fault.

[A]

But yeah, you're right, that has raised

[B]

the question of why have a GM at all really?

[A]

Because just let Artie do it if he's gonna. Right?

[B]

Yeah. Or not. But we'll return to that topic one way or another next time. But yeah, Peralta, I wouldn't be surprised if, if he's perfectly fine for the Rays. Sure. Obviously he's not Tarek Skubal, but I think he is somewhere between his 2.7 ERA for Milwaukee last year and his 4.99 for the Mets. And his X ERA was, was in that range 3.8ish. I don't know. I could, I could see him just snapping back to basically being the guy he was at least under the hood for the brewers year in and year out. And that's not insignificant addition. So it's good that the Rays got a consolation prize at least it's hard not to feel let down a bit when, yeah, you're in the running for Tarek Skubal potentially and, and then you end up with anyone else. But. But Freddie Peralta is, is not a bad plan B, I suppose. Even if there's a pretty big gap there.

[A]

Yeah. And we don't know if they're done and you know, this is the danger of us recording on Sunday, but there were just so many transactions we had to get some of them out. We couldn't wait till Tuesday. That would have been a four hour long pod, which I know you wouldn't have minded, but.

[B]

Yep. Well, we could talk about another starter trades involving Meg's Mariners, which you just alluded to. So Luis Castillo is now in the White Sox and this was a swap for Sir Anthony Dominguez, whom you mentioned the other day. He's pitching every time you watch the White Sox. Right. So you're going to be seeing even more Sir Anthony and not. Not pitching well.

[A]

No. Yeah, I finally landed on the comp. He is Louis Varland's wario for me this season because every time I watch the Blue Jays, Louis Varland is on the mound. It's shocking. You know, it's like I turn him on and I feel like that's true even when I turn on the Blue Jays in the first inning, which are you a misperception on my part. But I just feel like I have seen every inning that Louis Varland has thrown this year and they've been great, to be clear. And I feel like I've seen most of the innings that Sir Anthony Dominguez has thrown and they've been largely bad. But here's the thing. Much like the role he settled into with Chicago, he will not, he'll. He'll be a middle inning guy, you know, he's not going to be, I would think, throwing high leverage innings for, for Seattle. I have a little more faith in Seattle's pitching dev than Chicago's. So maybe they'll be able to tease something out of him. I don't know. Okay, so the cynic in me is a little worked up about this trade because if it's a salary dump, that feels bad. And, and look, Luis Castillo is not the guy he was when they traded for him in 2022 and they ushered in this era of expectation that I talked about. Right. This signaling of ambition, the seriousness. He's not that guy anymore. He is having arguably his worst season in the majors. And this isn't just like, oh, he's getting unlucky, and he has fantastic peripherals. Like, everything is down relative to certainly his peak and even to last year. Right. He's not the same guy. And I think that that's important to remember, but also part of why they did what they did was because the White Sox were willing to take on not only what remains of his salary this year, but also the entirety of his salary in 2027. And he also has a vesting option that year if he throws 180innings and avoids certain IL placements, et cetera. So. So they are saving a meaningful amount of money, even taking on Sir Anthony's salary, which, remember when he signed and we were like, well, that's a lot of money to throw at a reliever. That's kind of weird.

[B]

Yeah. We were wondering if they would flip him to a contender at the deadline, whether that was the plan, which I guess that is what happened. But it turns out that the White Sox were a contender, too. Right.

[A]

But I think that, like, the White Sox need starter innings. They are certainly putting pressure on Noah Schultz at the moment. I imagine he will sort of phase out of that for now. And so I think that Castillo is like a good guy to have soak up innings as your fifth starter. He is, by all accounts a delight to have in the clubhouse and for a young team, contending in a way that was sort of unexpected. And I mean, credit to the White Sox, like, they're two years out from setting a record for losses. So, you know, this is. This is, I think, a defensible move on their part. They partnered with Boston Smith, who is unexpectedly a main character of this deadline. Right. Because savvy listeners will remember that Boston Smith was who the White Sox traded for when they traded away Curtis Meads, the Nationals. So weirdly, at the center of a lot of deadline activity this year. And then Nolan Jones, who had one really great year for Colorado and has been hurt and ineffective since then, he will, I imagine, be outfield depth for Seattle at aaa. There are some rumblings that, like, they are listening on Randy or Rosarina. If they do that, I think that they are signaling that they are not competing if they are to move him. Because you know what? Randy Rosarina has been, apart from infuriating at times on the base pass. Randy, stop running. Stop it. Also stop challenging. You're bad at that. And your base running, very strange. But he has been their best bet. And they're only all star. Even if you almost did miss the AL star photo. I'm never going to Forget that. It was such a delightful moment of, like, being in the press box at just the right moment to be like, is that Randy Rosarino sprinting across the field? Because they're taking the American League All Star photo right now and he's not over there. Yeah, that's Randy. I think Nolan Jones will settle in as sort of outfield death at AAA for now. They'll figure out if they can fix him. Boston Smith was sort of a aspect, as Eric put it, a priority senior sign. He didn't get much in the way of a signing bonus because he had no leverage. Not a good defensive catcher, Big pop in the bat, a lot of contact and swing and mississues. So they'll have to figure out if they can fix him. I am nervous that this is mostly about getting Castillo salary off the books. If they reallocate that money to a good bat, well, then you got more starters than you know what to do with. And lest anyone forget, Kate Anderson is just like shoving at Double A. Yeah. And they have, you know, they have Sloan, too. So they are very well positioned to backfill their rotation. There are other rumblings of them listening on Emerson Hancock, them listening on George Kirby. So I don't know where their rotation will, how that'll settle out when the deadline comes and goes tomorrow. But they are trading from a position of great depth, even if it feels sad just because of what Castillo meant to the organization and if there's a twinge of nervousness that this is about saving money because there's some precedent for that. But I am going to reserve judgment on that piece of it until we know what they have done in the next little while.

[B]

Yeah, there's enough money remaining on Castillo's deal that he better be better or else.

[A]

Right?

[B]

Yeah, it's gonna be a bit of a dragon for.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Yeah. I applaud the White Sox for. For doing something and making an effort because they've been such a fun story and. And, yeah, they have payroll room and they need help in the rotation. He doesn't have to be great to improve on their alternatives, but does probably have to be better than he has

[A]

been this season because he has been used. He's been deployed in sort of a piggyback role at times this year, which we've talked about on the pod and to varying degrees of success. And I should be clear, like, it's not like they're on the clock to spend all that money by Monday. It does give them flexibility to take on payroll in a deal. They could also look ahead to the off season. Maybe there's a bat that they like, you know, what have you. But if it just ends up going back into John Stanton's piggy bank, I'm going to be annoyed. But I'm going to be responsible in the interim and not be annoyed prematurely. As my mother always says, save your panic until you need it. I'm not good at that. It's like the advice she has given me the most often in my life and probably the advice I have inadvertently ignored more frequently than any other, which isn't me disrespecting my mom. I'm just an anxious little bird. So, so there's that. But yeah. Castillo, Luis. Thanks, bud. You, you were a fun mariner. I hope that those sunflower seeds you planted outside the dugout that one time blossom into you thriving in Chicago.

[B]

Well, I guess the only other somewhat significant move that's been made is Atlanta trading for Lane Thomas and Bailey Falter from Kansas City.

[A]

And I, I would maybe submit. So I like that deal for Atlanta makes sense for Royals to sell because they're not going anywhere this year and Lane Thomas is probably surplus to requirements for them at this point. I like Atlanta bolstering that lineup. You don't want Lane Thomas to play center field, which he was playing a good amount of for for Kansas City. But guess what? The Braves have Michael Harris second so he doesn't have to play center field. Pop him over into a corner, have some flexibility there. Dubon can pop around. He and Yaz can platoon. He being Lane Thomas. They've talked about wanting a right handed alternative for that lineup. So I think that works out nice. I think the most interesting thing and it's certainly not the highest profile move that has been made by the other Brewers.

[B]

The brewers trade brewers guardians.

[A]

I was going to talk about how the Twins little buy in action for Minnesota. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, it's the, the posture is more interesting than the individual moves. I think is. Is the way that I would maybe put it because I don't mean, I don't say that to try to be disrespectful to, to Dean Kramer. That would be rude. I don't, I don't want to disrespect Dean Kramer who's now a Minnesota Twin. But also, you know, like it's Dean Cramer gamer. But they, they, they also picked up Minter from, from the Mets. So that's, that's nice, you know, to get Minter.

[B]

It's a change from last year's deadline when they traded every reliever who wasn't nailed down and now, now they're acquiring some. So yeah, yeah, that's. Yeah, it's good. It's good.

[A]

Again, the, the part they're in it

[B]

according to the standings so they, they should be shoring up of a weakness here or there.

[A]

This is like a responsible posture. And again, we are recording at 1:30pm My time on Sunday. By the time we record again, maybe they've cleaned out the cabinet, you know, and this isn't their posture at all. But in terms of like an early signal, it's just like, oh, we're gonna make a little. We're gonna make some shoring up sort of moves we need to shore up. So here, here we are shoring. We'll kind of go from there. Seems reasonable given where they are in the standings.

[B]

So yeah. The Pirates also acquired a reliever, Camilo Duvall from the Yankees. We don't have to go in depth on every reliever move. There are going to be a lot.

[A]

But here's what I'll say. We have not yet written up Camilo Duvall because he is firmly in the either we'll do a reliever roundup or the Pirates will do more moves and Camilo Duvall can get written about.

[B]

Then yeah, I hope there's a Pirates reliever roundup because that's. They need that because man.

[A]

And they need better than Duval. Candidly.

[B]

Yes. Right. I don't know how much he helps, but at least it's a gesture in the right direction because the bullpen's been holding the Pirates back. They have this strong starting staff which is sixth in fangraphs WAR and then their fifth in position player WAR which exceeded my expectations for how good their non pitchers were going to be. And then it's the bullpen. The bullpen has been a big part of of why they're still sort of on the periphery of contention there. Bullpen is 18th in Fangraph's war. It's just it's gotta be better right? 19th and win probability added. Nothing more frustrating than that probably than when every other aspect of your roster is sort of squared away. But you can't hold leads because your bullpen keeps blowing them. And that seems like fortunately it should be one of the easier things to to correct because there are always relievers to be had. Not that you can always reliably predict which relievers are going to be good over the however 15 minnings or something that they have left. But. But yeah, do something. Don't. Don't let the bullpen sink your season when so much else has gone right.

[A]

It's like that other meme with the guy poking with a little stick. You know something.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Do something. He's, like, poking. What is he poking? Do you just always plaster over whatever he was originally poking with the thing that you want to do something?

[B]

Yeah. I don't even know if he's poking anything. He's just kind of.

[A]

Doesn't he have a little stick?

[B]

He. Yeah, he has the stick, but I don't know if he's actually poking anything in particular. He's just kind of.

[A]

He's just gesturing at the idea of doing something.

[B]

You can fill in whatever you want someone to do.

[A]

Gotcha.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

All right.

[B]

The brewers deal that I alluded to. I mean, the. The brewers acquired Bo Naylor. They did Cody Hoyer from the Guardians for Blake Perkins and Craig Yoho. So we all got to enjoy.

[A]

I can't believe Craig. He needs to be a Pirate.

[B]

Right?

[A]

Like, why is that?

[B]

Would fit. Yeah, right.

[A]

Because the sun. But also, I'd be really annoying about it if he were a Pirate because I'd sing the song. I can't believe that I managed to restrain myself when you. You mentioned Mike Sirota. I know, because I just. Every time I want to be like, yeah,

[B]

I guess I did refrain until now.

[A]

Yeah. I guess I didn't actually hold back, did I?

[B]

Yeah. Anyway, some of those names in that trade would have been more noteworthy a couple years ago or at some point in the past.

[A]

I think it's interesting Bauman wrote that trade up for us, and. And he made the point that, you know, it's sort of dependent on what Milwaukee is able to make of Bo Nailer. They do have roster decisions related to their catching position at. In the future. They have an option on Contreras. It's not particularly expensive. It's a little pricey for them, given where they operate. But there is a scenario where they make Bo Nailer really good, and then all of a sudden, they have options about trading and Contreras, and then we have to get back on the mic and talk about how annoying the brewers are, and no one will remember that when they're wanting to get mad at the Dodgers. Sorry, I snarked again, but I hope they don't do that because Contreras has been so good for Milwaukee. Bonaylor has been so frustrating because he was so promising in the beginning, and then, like, the offense hasn't been great, and it's not like he's a defensive Standout. So he can't even, like, hedges his way to value you. So they have some work to do there. Cleveland officially out of the. The nailer business. No more.

[B]

No more nails themselves. Of all nailers. All nailers, all nailers must go, not nail her down. Yeah. So there will be more moves and we will return next time to round them up. And hopefully not too much of what we said today is altered by subsequent moves. But, but inevitably it will be.

[A]

It will be.

[B]

That's, that's what tends to happen. But hopefully most of our analysis holds up and you get our trade reactions hot off the podcast presses. So that's that and more deadline deals to be discussed. The biggest news of this weekend, though, our moment of Zen to end on. You know how you always wonder whether men are okay because some of, for any number of reasons, but specifically because some of us have used from time to time some sort of three in one, four in one shower concoction where it's like body wash plus shampoo plus conditioner plus. I don't even know what else. Right. Well, it was revealed live on air on a Baltimore Orioles broadcast this weekend that Ben McDonald's is the opposite of that. In fact, maybe he could use one of those combined things because he eschews shampoo entirely.

[A]

What does he does?

[B]

He uses a bar of soap to wash his hair. You think you use the same amount of product in your hair as Brandon Marsh does? No way. For me, it's just a bar of soap. A bar of soap? Yeah. I've never used shampoo.

[A]

Not once.

[B]

Ever. Just a bar of soap in the hair. I was going to say he confessed this, but he didn't seem at all ashamed about it. In fact, if anything, he seemed quizzical. He seemed flummoxed that anyone would do anything else. And Kevin Brown was sort of the proxy for normal people. You have never used shampoo, never in your life, ever?

[A]

No.

[B]

Not when you were a kid? No. Just a bar of soap in the shower.

[A]

That's all I need.

[B]

You use shampoo?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Why doesn't everybody else.

[A]

I don't know.

[B]

I, I, I. It's just a bar of soap. It's simple. All you need is a bar of. Cleans it perfectly. I mean, Phil, Phil, how soft this is. It's just. This is a bar of soap. Look, I, I have my share of odd habits, as anyone who listens to our bonus pods can attest to, but.

[A]

Amen, brother.

[B]

But this is one where, where I'm firmly on the side of. Wait, what? Are you talking about. He sounded as if we are the weird ones, those who use shampoo. And. And in case anyone's wondering, it's not that he's hairless. It's not that he's bald or something and just has less need of shampoo. He has a full head of hair, but he does not believe in shampoo. He says he's never in his life used shampoo, which I don't know how he can verify that it was never used on him before he had reached the age of shampoo consent. But at least as an adult, as someone who can make his own choices about hygiene, he has not used shampoo. And he claims that he is none the worse for this. He had brown feel his hair and see how soft it was and how clean, supposedly. And so he just rubs a bar of soap over his head and that's how he washes his hair. And he claimed not to understand why anyone would do anything different, which to me is mind blowing, because if anything, I might underutilize bar soap just because I have, like, liquid soap and body wash or whatever soap, like, substances. And I. I don't like bar soap that it's like, I don't like the feel of it. It's all slippery. And, you know, I like some sort of liquid soap substitute. I mean, that's soap too. So soap in any form.

[A]

Getting in all the crooks and. Yeah, you know, nooks and crannies.

[B]

So this is very much as Bryce Harper's toothbrush method. Again, I'm open to different strokes for different folks. And. And if it works for you. And. And no one's complaining about his hair. And, and it looks clean. I mean, he is.

[A]

He is washing his hair.

[B]

He's washing it. He's just putting a bar. Just dragging a bar of soap over his head. It's just never would have occurred to me to do such a thing.

[A]

Okay, here, here would be my concern. Does he use any conditioner? Did he say.

[B]

Oh, I don't think so. Yeah.

[A]

So, okay, so there are two concerns I might have here. And again, like, everybody's head of hair is different.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So I'm gonna have less of a reaction than you maybe thought you were winding me up for here. Given some of my takes, which are correct about you guys and your lack of wellness. Mostly it's just, like, give yourselves little treats, you know, It's. It's fine. No one's gonna have questions about your masculinity if you use both the shampoo and a conditioner.

[B]

And I don't know if that's, if that's McDonald. Unless this is some internalized thing where he's worried that people will think he's not macho. I don't know. Look, he was a ball player. Maybe you're in the communal showers or whatever.

[A]

It's an expediency.

[B]

Yeah, that could be it too. Right. But he should have the time. And he has sort of an old school. He has like a flat top, like military crew cut kind of style going on here. I don't know whether that affects anything. Like, I mean, if he had long, luscious, flowing locks or something, maybe that would be harder to handle with a soap bar. Maybe because his, his hair is so square. Maybe more than one way. Maybe it's sort of soap bar shaped. Maybe it works for him. But. Yeah, so you, so you're not, you're not as.

[A]

I have two concerns, though. The first. The first is about the state. Well, look, it's either we talk about his hair or my colonoscopy.

[B]

So here we go, you know, which I'd prefer, but.

[A]

All right. Yeah, but you know what? Don't worry about it, everybody. Don't worry about it. Don't worry about it. I will say anesthesia is a trip. Man, that, that's such a strange, it's such a weird experience.

[B]

It is.

[A]

It wasn't unpleasant, but it was very odd. Yes, but my first concern would be like, what is. And I worry about this with fellas, sort of generally because I think a lot of you are very routine based in the shower and you're like washing your hair every day you're in there. And so I always worry, like, what's the state of your scalp? You know, like, are you real dried out up there? And there are a lot of things that can contribute to, to dander and scalp dryness. And so again, and everybody's individual little oil glands and this is. And that's. And you know, it's very particular. So. But having said that, I would be a little nervous that he's just dealing with a, a real dry situation up there. Right. Because depending on the bar soap he uses now, some bar soap is very nice and like, might be moisturizing. There are, there are solid shampoos that you can get that are in sort of bar soap form but operate like shampoo. But I'm imagining this guy with just like the barest bones, you know, like you go to the store and it's, it's the kind of aisle where you're only Getting like, single ply toilet paper, which is an abomination. And then you have just like the harshest. Yeah. Most astringent.

[B]

Any type of toilet paper is extraneous as far as I'm concerned.

[A]

But that's not. All of us have the days. Okay.

[B]

We have had. Okay, well, I mean, could rectify that and rectum. Rectify that.

[A]

I'm trying to pull us away from that end of the body. You know, I think it's good that we saved this till the end, though. I. I bet that there are people who saw. Who are gonna see this episode hit, and they're like, she's gonna talk about her stupid colonoscopy first. We didn't. We got right to the news of the day. We were really focused. I had a. I had segments. You know, I had a plan. We were. We were locked in. So I would worry about sort of the. The state of his scalp and how dry it is. And then I also would worry about sort of the. The texture and, and brittleness of his hair. Now, he might have wiry hair to begin with. He might have soft hair. He might be working with a really nice bar soap. Some of the bar soap.

[B]

Soap.

[A]

Because I'm a, I'm a bar soap person. Well, I have like, liquid soap also, because sometimes, you know, the. You forget to buy a bar soap. You do have to. Your margin for error there tends to be lower. And then I'll buy multiple bar soaps. And they can smell very nice and they can be very gentle. But I would worry about maybe the. The condition of his hair. There is a reason that we condition hair. Right. That we have conditioner to sort of add moisture and sheen. But also, and I want to. I want to express this as non judgmentally as I can, because I like that booth very much. I like him in that booth. I think those two are really nice compliments for one another. I really enjoy that broadcast and think it's really good. And he clearly likes his haircut. It's not for me. I don't have a desire to look like a drill sergeant. But also, he seems pleased with it. So as much as I do inquire after men and their okayness because, you know, dude, wipes and deodorants that are named after verbs, that's filling a segment of the market that does suggest that there's something to be a little worried about. And we did have what's his name with the metz and all those eggs. So I don't know that all of your sources for wellness are necessarily the best, but this one actually doesn't. Doesn't alarm me to the same degree. I would, I would though, offer to him that there is a whole wide world of stuff that might be a little softer on your, your scalp or your hair that might make it feel nicer to the touch for you, that might make your scalp feel like a little more quenched. And, and that if, if he ever wants to explore that whole whole big world out there and also would just invite him to, to remember that there's nothing wrong with using literally shampoo. I think that the, the best posture that one can take when one is adopting a minority opinion is to accept that you are outside the consensus. Which doesn't mean that what you're doing doesn't work for you necessarily, but also suggests that like you're the one that's being a little weird, you know, and you can just have the humility of that reality.

[B]

Yeah, I'm familiar with that feeling. Yeah.

[A]

Right. Because you, you are a lifelong holder of weird ass grooming and food opinions, you know, and I feel comfortable calling them weird ass because they are, some of them are quite strange.

[B]

I'm comfortable with you calling that. But not using shampoo is, is not one of them. So. Yeah, yeah, I can't cankle on with the other Ben. The other, other, other other Ben on this one.

[A]

So many Bens.

[B]

Yeah. Maybe one day he'll, he'll experiment. Maybe it's not too late and he'll just luxuriate and he'll realize what he was missing. Or. Yeah, maybe not. Takes all kinds as long as he's cleaning with something as he seems to be.

[A]

Like every time they take a road trip and he stays in a hotel and he goes in there and they have their shampoo and conditioner and body wash to see.

[B]

Like what's this Untouchable?

[A]

Yeah, Just, you know, maybe he's the smart one because he has never had to grapple with the, I imagine, cost based change that is terrible away from the little mini shampoos and conditioners and toward the fixed big bottles in, in the shower in hotels. And we. I'm not doing more hotel shower talk here. Okay. I save that for when Craig's on the show. But. But it is a travesty that we should collectively rebel against after we're done slipping on the water on the floor.

[B]

Okay. Met egg guy, by the way. Ryan Lambert.

[A]

Thank you. Ryan Lambert. Ryan Lambert.

[B]

Six plus ERA in AAA and see you Ryan. Also missed some time, so I don't know if it's because he was ODing on eggs, but it doesn't seem to have fortified him enough. At least it's been major control issues, both with egg consumption, possibly, but also with the strike zone, definitely. All right, well, much as the Rays, having missed out on Scubal, secured a starter Freddie Peralta, the Cubs acquired Kevin Gossman from the Blue Jays. The Yankees added the nationals Luis Garcia Jr. The Braves got Tyler Malley from the Giants, coverage of those trades and others next time. Also, all that shampoo talk reminded me of a scene from Season three of the West Wing that my friends and I still sometimes repeat to each other. White House Chief of staff Leo McGar, the late John Spencer and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Percy Fitz Wallace, played by the late John Amos, are sitting alone in the situation room. It's a heated time and they have a little light, almost non sequitur of an exchange. This is always when you say something, Have you changed shampoo? You have have. I can tell cuz your hair seems bouncy and more manageable. I like to look good for you. Well, I appreciate it. Not a sentiment we're likely to hear in the Baltimore booth. The name of that episode we killed Yamamoto. Not Yoshi, though. Isaroku, the World War II commander. You can support Effectively Wild on Patreon by going to patreon.com effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast going. Help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks, as have the following five listeners Matthew Cabot, Andrew Prigert, Crime Dog, Jamie and Paul Schumacher. Thanks to all of you, Patreon perks include access to a third unrestricted episode each week, a monthly bonus podcast, our Patreon Discord Group exclusive live streams, personalized messages, prioritized email answers, shout out at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, Fangraphs memberships and more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com effectivelywild if you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcastangraphts.com youm can rate, review and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Music and other podcast platforms. You can join our facebook [e-mail] group effectively wild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at R Effectively Wild and you can check the show notes in the podcast post of Fangraphs or Patreon or the episode description in your podcast app links to the stories and stats we've cited today. Thanks to Shane McKean for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with another episode soon. Talk to you then. If baseball were different, how different would it be? And if the slot just haunt your dreams? Well, stick around and see what Ben and Meg have to say. Philosophically and pedantically, it's effectively wild.

[A]

Effectively wild.