Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen recorded this month’s episode against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Following US–Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation across the region, the situation is a reminder of how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through global systems - from energy markets to supply chains. Rather than trying to predict outcomes, the grey elephant lens allows us to explore the structural signals sitting beneath the headlines.

One such signal is the rise of prediction sites like Polymarket, where users can bet on real-world geopolitical outcomes. While novel on the surface, platforms like this reflect deeper shifts in how information, expectations, and risk are distributed and priced. Hear how Europe’s evolving role in a more multipolar world, is a sign that the region is moving beyond regulation, toward building greater strategic capability around critical materials, supply chains, and technology independence.

We are also joined by TomorrowToday Digital Director, Jude Foulston, to share how the team’s participation in 1% for the Planet is supporting a grassroots education initiative in South Africa - a reminder that businesses can translate purpose into practical action through targeted social investment.

Our guest this month is James Cockayne, New South Wales Anti-slavery Commissioner, to explain how modern slavery is a grey elephant embedded within global supply chains. Although widely acknowledged, it is still often treated as a compliance issue rather than a strategic leadership challenge. James explains why regulators are moving beyond disclosure toward stronger human-rights due diligence, and why organisations that genuinely understand their supply chains are better positioned to manage risk, strengthen resilience, and create long-term value.

Key takeaways -

🌍 Multipolarity and shifting power blocs

Evolving global order and regional power blocs are increasingly shaping trade, technology, and security dynamics.

🎲 Prediction markets and new information signals

Platforms that allow betting on geopolitical events point to changing dynamics in how expectations, intelligence, and information circulate globally.

🇪🇺 Europe’s strategic awakening

Europe is beginning to move beyond its traditional role as a regulatory power and is investing more deliberately in industrial capability, supply chain resilience, and technological sovereignty.

🏗️ The overlooked constraints of the next economy

Critical materials, water availability, and aging infrastructure are emerging as structural constraints that could shape the next phase of economic and technological growth.

🐘 Modern slavery as a grey elephant

Modern slavery remains widely visible but frequently underweighted in corporate risk management, often treated as a reporting exercise rather than a strategic issue.

🔗 Supply chains, governance, and ownership

Addressing modern slavery requires clearer executive ownership and a shift from compliance toward deeper supply chain visibility and collaborative risk management.

🤝 Stewardship and long-term value creation

Businesses that build stronger relationships across their supply chains are better positioned to manage disruption and protect long-term value.

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Connect with Graeme and Dean:

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Email Dean at Dean@tomorrowtoday.consulting

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