← Elon Musk Thinking
Elon Musk Thinking
Elon Musk Latest Announced at Tesla's 2025 Shareholders Event!!!
00:58:17
Elon Musk Latest Announced at Tesla's 2025 Shareholders Event!!! #ElonMusk #Tesla Source: Tesla https://www.youtube.com/live/VGPlvmMjPtE?si=iIRELO4dtdQ97GGW Follow me on X https://x.com/Astronautman627?t=RFQEunSF2NwRkCOBc6PkkQ&s=09
Loading summary
Transcript126 lines
- [00:00]
Grainger Narrator
What do you think makes the perfect snack?
- [00:02]
Grainger Narrator 2
Hmm.
- [00:03]
Elon Musk
It's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient.
- [00:06]
Grainger Narrator
Could you be more specific?
- [00:07]
Grainger Narrator 2
When it's cravenient. Okay, Like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter, available right down the street at am pm.
- [00:13]
Elon Musk
Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at am pm. I'm seeing a pattern here. Well, yeah, we're talking about what I.
- [00:19]
Grainger Narrator
Crave, which is anything from AM pm.
- [00:21]
Grainger Narrator 2
What more could you want?
- [00:22]
Dutch Pet Care Advertiser
Stop by AM pm where the snacks and drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience.
- [00:28]
Elon Musk
Am pm Too much. Good stuff.
- [00:31]
Grainger Narrator
This is the story of the 1. As a custodial supervisor at a high school, he knows that during cold and flu season, germs spread fast. It's why he partners with Granger to stay fully stocked on the products and supplies he needs, from tissues to disinfectants to floor scrubbers. All so that he can help students, staff and teachers stay healthy and focused. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Grange Ranger for the ones who get it done.
- [01:00]
Elon Musk
I'm gonna say a bunch of things that probably I shouldn't say, but. But that's what keeps it interesting. Have you watched any other annual shareholder meeting? Honestly, I was like, if you need to go to sleep, sure. I mean other shareholder meetings are like snooze fest, but ours are bangers. Look at. This is sick. Here we got like the Cyberpunk nightclub here with real robots just standing there and milling around and dancing. And around our engineering headquarters in Palo Alto. The robots just walking around the office 24, seven with no one minding them. They're just. And then they go charge themselves. And yeah, the scale of Optimus, like I said, that's really going to be something else. I think it's going to be the biggest product all time by far. Yeah. So bigger than cell phones, bigger than anything. I guess the way to think about it is that every human on Earth is going to want to have their own personal R2D 2C3PO. So who wouldn't? But actually Optimus will be even better than that. Like RTDT would beep at you and it's hard to figure out what he's got talking about 3PO to translate. But Optimus is going to be like, everyone's going to want one. I think in terms of industry, providing products and services, I think it's probably, I don't know, three to five robots in industry for everyone. That's a personal robot. I think there could be tens of billions of Optimus robots out there. Now obviously it's very important we pay close attention to safety here because we do want the Star wars movie, not the Jim Cameron movie. I love Jim Cameron's movies. But yeah, yeah. So we're going to launch on the fastest production ramp of any product, of any large complex manufactured product ever. And starting with building a million unit production line in Fremont and that's line one and then a 10 million unit per year production line here on the. I don't know where we're going to put the 100 million unit production line. Maybe on Mars, I don't know but, but I think it's going to literally get to 100 million a year, maybe even a billion a year and if you can get to the 5 second cycle time. So it's a lot of cars, so these will be everywhere in the future and we want it to look futuristic so like it changes the look of the roads. Now the. Yeah, the ingredients, when you look at what Optimus is, what's required to make Optimus and the various ingredients, what do you need to do to make, to do high volume humanoid robot production? I think it's worth considering that really the cars we make are already robots, but they're four wheeled robots. So Tesla is already the biggest robot manufacturer in the world because every car we make is a robot. And when you break it down to the fundamental elements, you've got batteries, power, electronics, motors, gearboxes, you've got connectivity, you've got a vision based AI, hi Optimus. And all the various pieces that you need for a humanoid robot, you need the AI chip, you need the AI software, you need to be able to manage a large fleet. And so really Optimus is a robot with arms and legs as opposed to a robot with wheels. Tesla's ideally suited I think to make, to succeed in this arena. You will see certainly many companies showing demonstration robots. There's really three things that are super difficult about robots. One is the engineering of the forearm and hand because the human hand is an incredible thing. Actually it's super dexterous engineering the hand really well. The real world AI and then volume manufacturing, those are generally the things that are missing. One or more of those things are missing from other companies. So Tesla is the only one that has all three of those? Yeah, yeah. So this is the Optimus kind of initial, it's kind of the prototype production line. The high volume production line will be very automated obviously, but this is really the production line that we use to make the prototypes. So you can get a sort of rough sense for what it takes to build the robot here. Pull the finger. And then as I've said before, I think once we reach about a million units per year of sustained production, or in excess of that, I think probably the cost of Production is around $20,000 in carrier dollars. So this will be certainly very affordable. And yeah, like I said, I think Optimus will ultimately increase the size of the economy probably by a factor of 10 or more next year. We saw production with Optimus version 3. What you're seeing here is Optimus version 2.5. Optimus 3 is an incredibly good design. The Tels engineering team is amazing. When you see Optimus 3, it will seem as though that this is the.
- [07:29]
Grainger Narrator 2
Story of the 1. As head of maintenance at a concert hall, he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes, ensuring every light is working, the H Vac is humming, and his facility shines with Grainger's supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces. Plus 24. 7 customer support. His venue never misses a beat. Call quickgranger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.
- [07:58]
Grainger Narrator
This is the story of the 1. As a custodial supervisor at a high school, he knows that during cold and flu season, germs spread fast. It's why he partners with Grainger to stay fully stocked on the products and supplies he needs, from tissues to disinfectants to fluids, floor scrubbers, all so that he can help students, staff and teachers stay healthy and focused. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [08:28]
Elon Musk
There's someone like a person in a robot outfit, which is how we started with Optimus. It really is going to be something special. And then Optimus, Optimus 4 that hopefully stops production in 27 and then Optimus 5 in 28. So it's like an annual release cycle with significant improvements with each one and gigantic increases in the scale of production. Yeah. Sustainable abundance via AI and robotics. That's the future we're headed for. And as I think most people here know, the safety statistics show that miles driven on FSD are much safer than miles driven without it. What this will translate to ultimately is saving the lives of millions of people and preventing hundreds of millions of accidents. So a massive increase in the in lives sold and tragedies avoided. It's going to be amazing. And how many people here have tried 14.1 okay, all right, cool. Yeah, you can see that even with the point releases it's getting quite a bit better. It should be pretty smooth at this point. But really 14.2 is, there are major changes. 14.2 and then 14.3 and I think by 14.3 is when we're really be at the point where you can just pretty much fall asleep and wake up at your destination. And then I've been putting a lot of time into the new Tesla chip design because in order to have a functional robot you have to have a great AI chip and it needs to be an inexpensive chip and it needs to be, be very power efficient. So we, we believe the AI5 chip will be probably about a third of the power of say something like a Blackwell and Nvidia Blackwell, which is a great chip for roughly comparable performance and about, and much less than 10% of the cost. So this is a chip that is very much optimized for the Tesla AI software stack. So it's, it's not meant to be a general purpose chip, it's meant to be an amazing chip for the Tesla AI software. And a couple things that I think make like how is Tesla able to achieve such an improvement? I think it is because, because we are specialized, we're not trying to. Nvidia has to serve the superset of all past and future customers. So all of their requirements, all of the software that they've written has to work, which is a very difficult problem. Whereas we just need to make it work for our software and so we're able to simplify the chip dramatically. And then we also, I think, I think we're unique in this but like we, we have an integer based system and integer operations are fundamentally more efficient than floating point operations. So we can do floating point but we, but the vast majority of our inference is done in integer, which is if you're familiar with sort of logic gates like the simplicity of integer and Integer is much more power efficient, much more silicon efficient. But you have to, you actually have to train for integer inference which everyone else is training for floating point, those that's like a niche technical detail, but it's actually very important. Yeah, this is going to be a great chip. So this chip will be made in basically in four places. TSMC Taiwan, Samsung Korea, TSMC Arizona and TSMC Texas. And we already know what improvements to make for AI6. So I'm hopeful that we can, within less than a year of AI5 starting production, we can actually transition in the same fab to AI6 and double all of the performance metrics. I'm super hardcore on chips right now. As you may be able to tell. I have chips on the brain. I dream about chips, literally. I can draw at least the broad brushstroke physical design of the AI 5 chip by heart at this point. It's a good chip. It's a good chip, sir. So this is really key now. One of the things I'm trying to figure out is how do we make enough chips? I have a lot of respect for the Tesla partners, TSMC and Samsung. Maybe we'll do something with Intel. We haven't signed any deal, but it's probably worth having discussions with Intel. But even when we extrapolate the best case scenario for chip production from our suppliers, it's still not enough. So I think we may have to do a Tesla Terafab. So it's like Giga, but way bigger. I can't see any other way to get to the volume of chips that we're looking for. So I think we're probably going to have to build a gigantic chip, apparently. Got to be done. So anyway, some of the stuff I've already talked about, yep, we've done a tremendous amount for sustainable energy and that is only going to grow over time. The world is moving towards a solar battery economy, which is ultimately the. That's. It's where, that's where it was going to go anyway. But what Tesla's done is accelerate, accelerate that outcome. Sometimes people don't understand quite how much energy comes from the sun. So The sun is 99.8% of all mass in the Solar System. Jupiter being 0.1% and then 0.1% is miscellaneous. Earth being in the miscellaneous category. So the total amount of energy. So sometimes people say we'll build fusion reactors on Earth. It's actually the giant fusion reactor in the sky is basically impossible to beat to such a degree that even if you could burn Jupiter in a thermonuclear reactor, the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100%. That's how much energy the sun produces. So solar power is necessarily the future. And I think there's going to be a lot of solar powered AI satellites and I think Tesla is going to play a role in that. We've obviously refreshed the product line. So S3XY. If, if people haven't tried the model S3X or Y or the cybertruck, I recommend at least getting a test drive or a test ride, as the case may be, try out the Full self driving and I think you'll be blown away. So those who do not, if you may be listening and don't have a Tesla, you should try one. And of course we've got the Cybertruck, which is the toughest truck of all time. It's literally bulletproof, faster than a Porsche 911 and can out tow a Ford F350. So it's a great car, great truck. And then starting next year, we manufacture the Tesla Semi. So this is already, we already have a lot of prototype Tesla semis in operation. PepsiCo and other companies have been using the Tesla Semi for quite some time. But we will start volume production at our Northern Nevada factory in 2026. So we got two big products or three, three massive products starting production next year. Got Optimus, we got Tesla Semi and we got the Cyber Cap and then battery packs. So the, if you look at total US power generation capability, it's roughly a terawatt, but the average power usage is less than half a terawatt. And that's because there are big differences in power usage between day and night. So daily and seasonal variations in power consumption mean that the United States, and really every country is only using about half, is only producing about half as much electrical energy as it could, could because without batteries there's no effective way to buffer the energy. So what batteries actually enable is even if you don't build any incremental power plants, you could double the energy output of the United States just with batteries. This is a super big deal. And in fact I think that's really where most of the incremental energy production in the United States is going to come from, is literally batteries. So a bigger deal than it may seem. And then we've got, we keep improving the battery design. So the mega block, which makes it really easy to deploy battery utility scale batteries. So we've just simplified and brought more of the components to be internal to the batteries. So you can just show up and drop off a battery and it works. And then hopefully with, hopefully over time we will actually add more and more of the power electronics. So that Megapack will actually be able to output up to 35 kilovolts directly. So you won't need a substation. That's what I'm saying. You can just literally drop it off. Like the way that a power wall, you just connect it to the house, the utility wires go on one side and the other side goes to the house mains and that's it. So we want to get Megapack to the Point where you just literally take the utility wires and you plug them in and it just works. Then we've got the. We've also built the world's largest supercharger network. So we do a lot of things here at Tesla. That's the biggest supercharging network in the world by far. And ultimately you'll be able to go anywhere on earth using a Tesla Supercharger. And it's pretty close to anywhere on earth, but it's, it's going to be ultimately just anywhere. It'll just work anywhere. The Supercharger team has done great work expanding that and improving the efficiency of the supercharger network. And in North America they did such a good job that the, the other car companies basically said they'll just use the Tesla Supercharger network. Okay, sounds good to us. It's always important to have a slide on safety in the factory. So we continue to improve safety for our factory workers. We care a lot about their well being and like one way you can just tell if a company is a good company or not, if you just walk through the factory or walk through the office and catch the vibe and the vibe in the Tesla factory is good, people are happy. That's how you know it's a good company. We've also put a lot of investment into raw materials we've built in South Texas and Corpus Christi. This is the story of the 1. As a maintenance supervisor at a manufacturing facility, he knows keeping the line up and running is a top priority. That's why he chooses Grainger. Because when a drive belt gets damaged, Grainger makes it easy to find the exact specs for the replacement product he needs.
- [20:54]
Grainger Narrator 2
And next day delivery helps ensure he'll.
- [20:56]
Elon Musk
Have everything in place and running like clockwork. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Grainger.
- [21:04]
Dutch Pet Care Advertiser
For the ones who get it done. Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24,7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.
- [21:38]
Elon Musk
The biggest lithium refinery outside of China, I believe. So it's starting open up with 50 gigawatt hours of lithium and will expand from there. So this is very important to have in a worst case scenario that we have the ingredients necessary. Necessary to make a battery. Very important. And then we've got here on this site the Cathode factory, which is just the sort of giant building about a half mile that way. And we're just making sure that we, from a supply chain standpoint, are resilient against any potential geopolitical challenges. And then also at this factory, we also make the 4680 cell, which is getting better and better. And that 4680 cell will be used in the Cyber Cab. Cyber. It is being used in the Cybertruck and will be used in the Cyber Cab and also in Optimus. So that's going well. But we continue obviously to get sales from many suppliers. It's kind of like the chip bad thing. We'll take as many chips as our suppliers can provide us, but then beyond that, if they can't provide us with any incremental cells or chips, we have to make them ourselves or we get stuck. That's the Tesla semi factory. So it's going to be pretty cool to see these going down the road in scale. Yeah. So that's the basic plan. Sustainable abundance for all. Right. So yeah, I guess we can go into Q and A now. Maybe at the next annual shareholder meeting we'll have Optimist take some of the questions. That'd be cool. So let's see. Alexandra, thank you for your help, by the way. Yeah, please go ahead.
- [24:08]
Retail Investor 1
Thank you. Is that a mic, is it? No, let me hold it.
- [24:11]
Elon Musk
It's okay.
- [24:13]
Retail Investor 1
What a year it's been, right? Just a year ago, President Trump got elected on the same day. These 12 months have been a heck of 12 months. Thank you to the board because I think they had to weather quite some storms. Institutional investors, and obviously thank you to you and we stand with you. I think we showed it and we will show it. So we would like to express a wish, please. This is a nice venue. We love coming to the factory and I think it's actually great we're doing this at the factory, but there are thousands of retail investors who are crying because they cannot. They come to me. I love playing the mama, but I now give it to you. Please organize a bigger venue. We're bigger than Berkshire and we will do better than Berkshire.
- [25:05]
Elon Musk
Okay, sure.
- [25:06]
Retail Investor 1
We can pay.
- [25:10]
Elon Musk
Yeah, actually, Tesla will be way bigger than Berkshire. Long term, it's going to be nutty. All right, we'll do the next one. Maybe we'll do it in the Arena? Yeah, like maybe the downtown arena or the soccer stadium or something like that.
- [25:25]
Retail Investor 1
And get your security checked. We want to make sure that you're safe.
- [25:28]
Elon Musk
What if I just bob and weave?
- [25:32]
Retail Investor 1
But we want a party and if you can bring the other Elon companies there as well, investors would really appreciate it.
- [25:38]
Elon Musk
All right, sounds good.
- [25:39]
Retail Investor 1
Thank you very much for listening.
- [25:41]
Elon Musk
All right, Elon, as a father, I just want to first thank you for the. Everything you're doing in the world, especially freedom of speech. Thank you. And one question. Will you or Tesla ever consider FSD tied to an owner's account rather than a vehicle to encourage more frequent upgrades provided? A transfer is to only a brand new Tesla vehicle while fostering brand loyalty. If the vehicle is sold or traded without upgraded to another Tesla, fsd, ownership would end. We have done that a few times. I guess we could extend it again. We'll extend it for at least another quarter and then play it by year after that. All right.
- [26:37]
Retail Investor 2
Howdy, Elon. Congrats on not having to show up.
- [26:39]
Elon Musk
To work for free anymore. Yeah, we now have over a $40 billion war chest.
- [26:52]
Retail Investor 2
We're cash flow positive and remain that. We know how you feel about Fiat already. Is it time to take a look at Bitcoin? What's your belief on that? Also, you've hinted towards that there's a wheelchair accessible model in the works.
- [27:07]
Elon Musk
Were you referring to the Rebovian?
- [27:09]
Retail Investor 2
And if so, can we please speed up production to help the least fortune it.
- [27:14]
Elon Musk
Sure, yeah. The. Obviously we need a vehicle that's big enough to fit a wheelchair. Wheelchair accessible. So I think that that's. That is the Bovin or robust or whatever we call it. The. It's not like we're slowing down because we want to slow down. It's like we're spinning like a zillion plates here. But I do think it would be very cool because I think aesthetically as well, it's just. It just would change the look of the roads and make it feel like the future. So it won't be long before we make that. But it's. But since we do have Optimus, we've got Cybercab, Optimus and semi all next year. It'll probably have to be maybe the year that, you know, a couple years from now or something like that. But we certainly will make a wheelchair accessible vehicle. Thanks.
- [28:05]
Retail Investor 3
Hi, Satoshi. I was privileged enough to attend the investor day and you also talked about the factory being a product and I saw the dry cathode method and so forth and I wanted to know the progress in that and also would Optimus be working on that in the future production line in the future?
- [28:21]
Elon Musk
Yeah, I guess. The dry cathode, man, that's turned out to be a lot harder than we thought. It does look like it's going to be successful and it will have some cost advantage relative to wet cathode. But if I had to wind the clock back, I would probably have gone with wet cathode. It's of dry cathode because it, it just turned out to be a lot harder to make it high Vol. Capable of high volume production with super high reliability. Yeah, but we will be, we will be scaling up battery cell production at Tesla and looking for cell production from our suppliers as well. Because we're going to be ramping up production very dramatically at Tesla now that we, we believe we have full self driving, that we have autonomy solved or at least are within a few months of having unsupervised autonomy solved at a reliability level significantly better than human. It's not. That means it's time to ramp up production because the value proposition is now much greater than a regular car. The killer app really is for people. Can you text and drive or can you sleep and drive? Can you, can the car take you to your destination or do you need to pay attention and be and have to drive it? And before we allow the car to be driven without paying attention, we need to make sure it's very safe. But like I said, we're on the cusp of that. I know I've said that a few times, but we really are at this point and you can feel it for yourselves with the 14.1 release. So what we're going to try to, we're going to push to expand vehicle production as fast as we possibly can. So aspirationally would aim to increase vehicle production by about 50% by the end of next year. So yeah, so that's, it's very hard to increase production, but that's roughly, I don't know, maybe we get to, I'm just guessing at an exit rate by the end of next year of around 2.6, 2.7 million vehicles annualized production and then aim to get to maybe 4 million by the, at annualized rate by the end of 27 and then maybe 5 million by the end of 28. Those are our aspirational goals. So these are, this is a gigantic increase in output, which means that the entire supply chain has to move in unison with that, with that increase in volume and the nature of producing a large complex product is that it moves as fast as the least lucky, dumbest element in the entire system and there's 10,000 plus items. But, but this, like I said, this really is a new, it's not just a new chapter for Tesla, it's a new book. And that new book is massively increasing vehicle production and ramping up Optimus production faster than anything's ever been ramped up before in history.
- [31:07]
Retail Investor 2
Awesome, Elon. Thank you. Thank you from all of us that retail shareholders really care. And so I echo the sentiment of a larger venue where can come as a testament to that. I was here. I was fortunate enough to be here last year and since then touring the factory, talking to people that work here. I'm just a retail shareholder, but increased my holdings 12 times. So I, I know it's really engaging and gives people a confidence and so thank you for having us. And I do echo that. I hope it grows. Last year I'm the one that asked you about your well being and safety.
- [31:41]
Elon Musk
Oh yeah, still alive.
- [31:49]
Retail Investor 2
It was a broad general question and it was before some of the uncertainty that's unfolded since then. And yes, I hope it had a positive impact and we all care. And so my question this year here you've talked recently about the most mind blowing product demo of all time. And I shot it being the most memorable product.
- [32:12]
Elon Musk
Oh yeah. Ever Roadster. Yeah. Yeah.
- [32:16]
Retail Investor 2
And I have patiently been waiting on my founders series Roadster reservation. On behalf of the founder series guys that have stuck in there. Can we be on invited to this unveil?
- [32:31]
Elon Musk
Oh yeah, sure. Absolutely. Definitely.
- [32:33]
Retail Investor 2
Okay.
- [32:34]
Elon Musk
Yes.
- [32:35]
Grainger Narrator 2
So all founder series can be involved.
- [32:37]
Elon Musk
Yes, yes. It's the least we could do frankly, for people that have long suffering roaster reservation holders, I feel confident saying it will be the most exciting product unveil ever. And I hope that whether it goes well or doesn't go well, since I'm.
- [33:01]
Retail Investor 2
Up here, can I get the first one?
- [33:04]
Elon Musk
I guess it's according to whoever put down their deposit in that sequence. So that's the. But you'll get a very early one. And the new roaster is very much like. It's not even the icing on the cake, it's the cherry on the icing on the cake. It's really, it's not essential for sustainable abundance, let me put it that way. But I do think there should be very cool technology in the world that is, that's way beyond anything that's ever existed. And I think I'd like those even if I could never have access to those things. I'D like to know that they exist and see the future happening. So I think it will be inspiring to a lot of people. And just it's extreme.
- [33:45]
American Giant Advertiser
It's like since 2011, American giant has been making everyday clothing with extraordinary effort. Not in far off factories, but right here in the usa. We obsess over fabrics, fit and details. Because if you're going to wear it every day, it should feel great and last for years. From the cut of a hoodie to the finishing of a seam, nothing is overlooked. Our supply chain is tight knit and local, which means less crisscrossing the country and more care in every step. The result is durable clothing. T shirts, hoodies, sweatpants and denim that become part of your life season after season. This isn't fast fashion. It's clothing made with purpose by people who care as much about how it's made as how it fits. Get 20% off your first order with code STAPLE20@american-giant.com that's 20% off your first order at american-giant.com with code STAPLE20. With the state of today's economy, it's more important than ever to invest in products that last for years to come. As the seasons shift and get cooler, make sure your closet is stocked with durable layers that stand the test of time. From American Giant. American Giant's clothes work harder and are wearable season after season. Their greatest hoodie ever made is made from the highest quality materials that are cut and sewn right here in the United States. So you're investing right back in your local community. Choosing American Giant means taking a stand for American manufacturing and hard working Americans, something other mega corporations don't care about.
- [35:22]
Elon Musk
American.
- [35:22]
American Giant Advertiser
From fleece to knit, all in a range of colors for versatile daily wear, American Giant delivers everyday pieces designed for everyday life. Feel the difference of quality made to last. Clothes from American Giant. Get 20% off your first order with code STAPLE20@ameran-giant.com that's 20% off your first order at american-giant.com with code STAPLE20.
- [35:47]
Elon Musk
The coolest car, if it even is a car that has ever that will probably ever exist. Yeah.
- [35:56]
Retail Investor 3
Hi Elon. Congrats on the proposal plan. That was amazing.
- [35:59]
Elon Musk
The compensation question, back to chips. Chips will be the limiting factor to the future. So on chips and electricity are the two limiting factors. Yeah. And we got the energy and power and energy packs ready to roll.
- [36:11]
Retail Investor 3
So I think on the chips, I think you said TSMC, Samsung, perhaps Intel.
- [36:15]
Elon Musk
14A in several different sites. I heard a couple US factory sources which is I heard like everyone. Yeah, yeah.
- [36:22]
Retail Investor 3
And so I guess the.
- [36:23]
Elon Musk
Is there an open door in the future of investing directly into some of those foundries? And second question, how big is a Terra factory?
- [36:31]
Retail Investor 3
Can you put that in scale?
- [36:32]
Elon Musk
Oh, yeah, yeah.
- [36:34]
Retail Investor 3
Semiconductor Terrafactory.
- [36:38]
Elon Musk
Yeah. The thing is that we actually have agreed to buy all the chips that are made from the Fab. So it's basically a money printing machine for TSMC and Samsung. It's like literally the faster you make the chips, the faster we send them money. But it's still not going fast enough. So that's why I think as far as I can see, the only option is to go build some very big chip app and then you go to solve memory and packaging too. But otherwise you just tap out at whatever the chip production rate is. And so I guess Terra would be, you'd want to say it's got to be at least 100,000 wafer starts per month size fab. And maybe that would be one of ten in a complex. So ultimately it'd be a million wafer stars per month. Yeah, exactly. You can tell when it gets the giggle factor. That's probably a good sign that we're onto something special. But I wouldn't be surprised if long term it's like a million wafers a month. Yeah. Hi, Lon. I'm a long term investor, so I've been holding the shares for 12 years. I worked at the autopilot team development for 10 years and brought my dad here from Brazil. We actually won the Tesla Vision contest with a Cybertruck B video. I hope you get to see that at some point. So thanks for the free Model Y. And my question is about obviously market expansion, but not only South America, Brazil, but also into Mars. Like with the upcoming rendezvous of Mars and Earth, what's going to be in the payload where we're going to send there? Optimus is going to play a big role. Optimus and I think Tesla vehicles will play a big role on the moon and Mars. So for a moon base and a Mars city, Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots are natural fit for building and operating a moon base in a Mars city. Cybertruck also. So sorry, Cybertruck also. Yeah, yeah, Cybertruck. You will need to drive around in a pressurized vehicle if there's a person inside. But yeah, it'll be something cool. Next level. Moon buggy or Mars buggy?
- [38:52]
Retail Investor 3
Hi, Mr. Musk. Gaurav. Been a fan of yours since 2006, I think. I saw a piece in Popular Science magazine. It was really cool. And I think I was 15 at the time, shareholder since 10 years now. It's been really rewarding. It's changed my life. So thank you very much to you and Tesla. My question is regarding Tesla's mission for a sustainable future as it pertains to autonomy. I personally feel fully expect a deflationary period after unlocked by autonomy basically both in moving humans and goods and whatnot. Excluding Optimus even.
- [39:28]
Elon Musk
Yeah.
- [39:29]
Retail Investor 3
What efforts are is Tesla going to focus on to reduce the dollar per mile? Rough math. I think like 30 cents a mile would be really nice. 50 cents is pretty good too. Looking at inflation later on. And then I guess the second part of that. How low does it have to be for people to just stop buying cars? Like where it doesn't make economic sense to do that. I expect that to affect economies of scale and then further increase the pricing of vehicles there on out. So like how what is that node.
- [40:00]
Elon Musk
At which inflection happens in terms of cost per mile? We do see a path with a lot of work to get below 20 cents a mile in current year dollars. And I somewhat agree that there's things will probably be deflationary as productivity increases because you can think of money supply as being the ratio of goods and services to what's the growth in goods and services versus the growth in the money supply. That ratio is basically inflation. And so if the output of goods and services grows faster than the money supply then you necessarily have deflation or vice versa. They try to make it sound complicated, but it's not. I'm not sure that even government over overspending can actually. I think government overspending will not be will be lower than the increase in productivity of goods and services, which would imply deflation as you expect.
- [40:51]
Retail Investor 3
Sorry, what about economies of scale and the impact it has to how you respond as an automotive company when people stop potentially buying cars?
- [41:00]
Elon Musk
Economies, sorry, economies of scale like auto manufacturing for instance.
- [41:04]
Retail Investor 3
It only makes sense if lots of people buy your vehicles.
- [41:07]
Elon Musk
Oh, the total number of vehicles will decrease. The sort of vehicle fleet out there is about 2 billion cars. If you add up all cars and trucks that are not at a scrapyard, I think it's around 2 billion. But the that number would decrease with autonomous vehicles, so the total fleet size would drop. I actually think miles driven will increase because it is now much less painful to travel somewhere. So if somebody's thinking about traveling across a busy city, then they'll take into account how much pain do I have to deal with if I have to do it through two hours of traffic, I probably won't. Won't do it. But if you're just, say, sitting in a cyber cab, watching a movie or doing some work, then it's just like sitting in a little lounge. And so I think you'll see probably a significant increase in total miles driven, but at the same time a decrease in the total active fleet of vehicles.
- [41:59]
Retail Investor 2
I'd just like to reiterate how grateful.
- [42:01]
Retail Investor 3
We all are to have you on board ready to lead US to another 7 trillion in market cap. At least.
- [42:07]
Elon Musk
At least.
- [42:09]
Retail Investor 3
Obviously.
- [42:10]
Elon Musk
Thank you.
- [42:12]
Retail Investor 3
My question is, how much of a concern is it that when cybercab starts production in Q2 next year, that regulation won't be there yet to where you can deploy cyber cabs being produced? Or are you guys confident that every cyber cab you guys make, you'll be able to deploy?
- [42:27]
Elon Musk
Yeah, I think the rate at which we'll. We receive regulatory approval will roughly match the rate of Cyber Cab production. It'll be maybe a little tight, but that's. It's about right. And I'd like to thank Waymo for paving the path here. It's very helpful. Yeah, but it's. I think we'll be able to deploy all the cybercaps that we produce. And the other thing is, once it becomes like, extremely normal in cities, it's just going to become like the regulators will have just fewer and fewer reasons to say no. And then you've got the accident statistics at scale, and you can show that autonomous miles save lives then, and you've got unequivocal billions of miles to prove it, then I think it's hard for regulators to say no. Yeah, true. All right.
- [43:23]
Retail Investor 3
First of all, Elon, thank you so much for everything you do for the Tesla shareholders.
- [43:27]
Elon Musk
Thank you. Do you see a path for Optimus.
- [43:31]
Retail Investor 3
To have consciousness downloaded to it?
- [43:35]
Elon Musk
You mean human? Human consciousness or. Yes. Yeah. It's not immediate, but if you say it down the road, would you be able to say with a neural link, have a snapshot of what is an approximate snapshot of somebody's mind, and then upload that approximate snapshot to an optimist body? I think that at some point that technology becomes possible, and it's probably less than 20 years. Yeah. Of course, you won't quite be the same. Be a little different because you'll be in a robot body and the mental snapshot will not be precise. It'll be probably pretty close, but not exactly the same. On the other hand, are you the same person that you were five years ago?
- [44:25]
Retail Investor 3
Nope.
- [44:26]
Elon Musk
A lot of things have changed. Yeah. But I guess at some point if you want to be uploaded to a robot body, my guess is that becomes possible.
- [44:39]
Retail Investor 3
Hi Elon. Space based data center is a great idea and I agree with that. I was curious on your views on space based solar power. The idea of beaming down microwave energy down to Earth so that you can just point it to where it needs to go without transmission, without distribution lines and it's more energy dense so you know, less band use. Just curious on your views Space solar power.
- [45:05]
Elon Musk
Until the advent of something like starship where the cost per ton to orbit drops by orders of magnitude, the cost of getting payload to orbit is so high that there was no possibility of space solar power solving anything. Really? Really. Now with starship, like I see a path to starship cost per ton to orbit being lower than air flight. If you were to fly, do a long distance air flight with cargo, say took a 747 from here to Sydney, Australia or something like that. I think, I think ultimately starship will be able to do that trip for less cost per ton than an aircraft. So then you, so now that now you've got that opens up a w very wide range of possibilities. Like the most obvious one I think is actually solar powered AI satellites. So to, to move the AI to, to orbit and essentially deep space over time. Because the you can actually access over a billion times more energy from the sun in deep space than you can on Earth. The scaling to scale to Kardashev any to make any progress on a Kardashev 2 scale which is using some non trivial amount of energy from the sun, you have to do space solar power. Now you could only beam a tiny amount of that back to Earth or you would melt Earth. So Earth actually receives a very tiny amount of the sun's energy. Where Earth is a tiny dust mote. You see like Earth to scale with the sun, we look like a little crumb. So to scale civilization like I said, to be at all relevant on a Kardashev 2 scale, like to even use a millionth of a percent of the Sun's energy, you really have to be have use solar power in deep space. And you could beam some of that back to Earth too. But you can only beam a tiny bit of it back or you'd melt Earth. And this will be our last question. Okay, we'll do a few more. We'll do a few more. Sorry. I'm sorry. All right, Elan, look around you. This is a very small sample of Tesla soldiers maybe. Actually I Should say Elon Musk soldiers, thank you for your support. So thank you everyone. I just like to say thank you from the bottom of my heart for your support.
- [47:39]
Retail Investor 3
Thank you.
- [47:40]
Elon Musk
And thank you everyone out there. So I know for sure a lot of them sold the farm to buy Tesla and they stuck with Tesla through thick and thin, good days and bad days. Yes. So my question to you is, how do you feel about repeating the success but in a safer way where you get qualified Tesla retail investor only to invest in SpaceX, avoiding all these market manipulator, those crooks and these short sellers. Yeah, it's, it is a tough problem that you highlight the. Basically the. Unfortunately over time the parasitic load of being a public company has just grown over time and, and so you get all these spurious lawsuits obviously and they just make it very difficult to operate effectively as a public company. But I do want to try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX. That would be very cool, a qualified.
- [48:47]
Dutch Pet Care Advertiser
Investor.
- [48:50]
Elon Musk
There, then we do that and this way avoid all this public export. I've been giving a lot of thought to how to give people access to SpaceX stock because I do want supporters to have SpaceX stock. But there's a sort of 2500 shareholder threshold for before you become a de facto public company. But I don't know, maybe at some point tells maybe at some point SpaceX should become a public company despite all the downsides of being public. All right.
- [49:32]
Dutch Pet Care Advertiser
Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24,7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments. And shipping is always free with Dutch. You'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.
- [50:03]
Grainger Narrator 2
First of all, thank you very much Elon. Just an amazing job you're doing not only for Tesla shareholders, but the humanity in general. So we've got a couple of questions many of us are asking like we want to know. Many of us think you are one of the most consequential business people on earth ever. And we want to understand how do you think, for example, like a couple. One, how did you know in the master plan part two, this is like 2018 or something like that. You calculated that point. It takes 6 billion miles of FSD miles driven before maybe the world regulatory would approve it. And then the second is like when you were deciding if Tesla is going to have the hardware chips, AI chips. Did you know at that time that at some point when you get to A five it's going to be used not only for cars but for bots and for AI data centers? Was that luck a little bit or was it like knew that was going to happen?
- [50:59]
Elon Musk
I generally, I mean in terms of the estimates like the, for the self driving stuff, I generally try to get things to within an order of magnitude. So if so it seemed to me like probably and this was technically in, in kilometers but would be more closer to 10 billion kilometers which is roughly 6 billion miles than it would be to 1 billion. But I think I thought it would not take a 800 billion kilometers. So it's really just when you're trying to guess something where there's a lot of uncertainty, just try to get it, get the estimate to the nearest order of magnitude closest factor of 10. And that's why I said probably around 10 billion kilometers or 6 billion miles. And then yeah, the chip, the reason Tesla created a chip team and it's important to know like the vast majority of Tesla is like a dozen startups in one and the only, we've only really done one major acquisition which is Solarcity and then some very small ones. So all of this is, almost all of this is organic. I bought the chip team from scratch and the AI team from scratch. The it was just because it became a limiting factor for hardware 2 we used Nvidia but Nvidia was at that time focused on making really AI server hardware which obviously was a smart bet. They're the most value, currently the most valuable company in the world. And Jensen Huang and his team have done an incredible job at Nvidia. My hats off to them. I'm a huge admirer of Jensen and Nvidia. They've done amazing work. But they were, they didn't want to do a cut a low cost power efficient car computer at the time, AI car computer. So I was like okay, I guess we, we need to start a chip team to solve that. So then that's when I hired Jim Keller and we built the chip team and did AI3, then AI4 and then we, to be honest we made a few, we made some mistakes there with AI5 but now AI5 is back on track and, and we'll have a very rapid cadence to AI6 and so forth. And this will really, this is really necessary for, for, for the car to like, like with AI4, I think we can get to 2 or 300% better than human safety, maybe 400% better. But with AI5, I think we can do 1,000% better or maybe even better than that than human safety. At a certain point actually it might be too much intelligence for a car. So like I was thinking like, what if you get stuck in a car and you have too much intelligence? But then one of the things we could do is when the car is idle is use the car as a massive distributed AI inference fleet with the container customers. We're like, do you want your car to earn money for you while it's sitting in your garage at night? I don't know, we'll pay $100 a month or $200 a month or whatever the right number is if you allow Tesla to do AI inference workloads when you're not using your car. So that will also help the AI in the car not get bored because like imagine what if I got stuck in a car and then. Well, and the highlight of your day was driving. But they don't always want to drive, so then what do you do the rest of the time? So I think Tesla could actually end up having the largest. Tesla might end up having the most amount of AI inference computer in the world. Like if, think like maybe if we had 100 million car fleet and at some point we may have more than 100 million car fleet and they'll have AI6, AI7 and if you're able to run a kilowatt of inference on 100 million car fleet, now you've got 100 gigawatts of distributed inference with built in cooling and power electronics and distributed power. Probably the market's valuing that as 0.0 right now is my guess. But it seems like an obvious thing to do if you, if you've got distributed inference AI and you've got the power and the cooling, which is very difficult to do the power and the cooling and 100 gigawatts is a lot. The average. As said, the average power consumption in the US I think is around 460 gigawatts for the. That's the entire electrical consumption of the US so the, if you do it 100 gigawatts, that would be a pretty big number. But yeah, it's basically something is a limiting factor and then we take actions to address the limiting factor.
- [55:30]
Grainger Narrator 2
A quick follow up. Thank you for that very much. A request for you. So you guys just unveiled the Cyber Bear.
- [55:35]
Elon Musk
Looks fantastic. Oh yeah, we'd like to.
- [55:37]
Grainger Narrator 2
It's beautiful. We'd want you guys. Or maybe do a cyber bull here in Giga, Texas. My name is Herbert. I've got a Brighter with Herbert channel on YouTube. This is the Cyber Bulls. We are representing the Tesla Bulls and we stand with you, Elon. But wouldn't it be cool to have a cyber bull right here in Texas?
- [55:55]
Elon Musk
Like a Cyber Longhorn.
- [55:57]
Grainger Narrator 2
Cyber Longhorn.
- [56:00]
Elon Musk
We'll do a Cyber Longhorn for the factory. All right.
- [56:08]
Retail Investor 3
Good afternoon.
- [56:09]
Elon Musk
I'm very excited to ask this question. I've dreamed of giving away a Tesla.
- [56:14]
Retail Investor 3
For a very long time, and I.
- [56:17]
Elon Musk
Finally wore EV Jack down enough that they're willing to foot the bill for it. But it turns out to give away a Tesla, I have to have your permission to say we're giving away a Tesla. You don't have to do anything Tesla. Tesla doesn't. We're going to go through the normal channels. We'll buy it from a store. Sure. All that stuff you can give away Tesla. Totally cool. Yeah. Yeah. But certainly you don't need my permission to give away a car. We'll take, like, maybe a couple more questions and then call it a night. All right. Hi, Elon. My name is Jonathan. You mentioned that the Roadster will have more tech than all the James Bond vehicles combined. Do you think there's any possibility that any of that tech will make it into the current vehicle lineup? No. And to follow up on that, do you have any estimate of production or delivery timelines for the Roadster? So we're aiming for the. So the product unveiled will be of the Roadster 2, which will be very different from what was shown previously. That Domo event will be April 1st of next year. I have some deniability because, like, I could say I was just kidding, but we are actually tentatively aiming for April 1st for what I think will be the most exciting, whether it works or not, demo ever of any product. And then I guess production is probably about 12 to 18 months after that. I think production is probably a year or so after that. Oh, I can't give away secrets, but you won't be disappointed. All right, take one last question. Three last questions. Okay.
- [58:15]
Grainger Narrator 2
Hi, Elon.
- [58:16]
Retail Investor 3
I'm really excited about this future of sustainable abundance that we're talking about. You're going to be saving a lot of lives with fsd, but the number of lives that would be saved and improved with this future vision you have is really inspiring and very exciting. So even today you've mentioned, though, that in a post scarcity world, the role of money could diminish or become obsolete. Given that much of today's power, including yours, is tied to wealth, do you, do you think achieving this abundance would require powerful people to relinquish their power? And how might we address resistance from those who hold power to make this vision a reality?
- [58:53]
Elon Musk
I think actually long term the AI is going to be in charge, to be totally frank, not humans. If artificial intelligence vastly exceeds the sum of human intelligence, it is difficult to imagine that any humans will actually be in charge. So we just need to make sure the AI is friendly. Yep.
- [59:13]
Retail Investor 3
Thank you.
- [59:14]
Elon Musk
Is that the question? Go ahead. Sure.
- [59:17]
Retail Investor 3
Yes. Okay. Sorry Elon. Okay. Okay. Yeah. I'm Cybercat on X and I'm doing YouTube and the content creator. There's one thing I always heard about Tesla owners or people who want to buy Tesla complain about that is about a super expensive insurance. Right. And the thing is Tesla, I know Tesla also do insurance. However it's not cover every place based on Boston. I don't have too much options. It's super expensive. And the other point is the FSD is very safe right now. I've been using FSE for about four years. Right. It's getting to a point, it's like almost unsupervised. However, the insurance still does not take this into consideration. They don't ask you whether you have FSD or not and they don't know how much you travel with fsd. And that is not a part of the risk prediction kind of thing. So I feel like what is, what's your thought about insurance going forward? Especially when we getting close to the autonomy, what is path like either using your own with the external partnership. For example, there's a company called Lemonade.
- [60:29]
Elon Musk
We not have the questions be super long. Tesla insurance is trying to expand as quickly as possible, but the regulatory structure for insurance is extremely complex and works on a state by state basis. So it's really somewhat of a racket. And the rules for insurance are different with every state. It's a very complicated thing, but I'm aware that insurance often is too expensive and doesn't take the right things into account. But so all I can say to that is yeah, we'll keep expanding Tesla insurance of when the car is operating as a cyber cap, Tesla will simply self insure. So that kind of solves that. But insurance is a. Yeah, a real pain in the neck for sure. But okay, I do need to end this at some point. I'll take one question and one question there. All right, thanks Elon. For taking my question. I appreciate it. My question has to do with compute and what the build out or what, how much is necessary to train Optimus and actually get them to a very household meaningful robot that can do things. And if the partnership with xa, with XAI would help accelerate that. Yeah, there's, there's a lot of training compute needed for Optimus and because the AI chip in the robot is relatively weak, because it's really limited on power, you can make up for that with a lot of training. To have a lot of training result in a very efficient AI that can run on a low power chip in the robot. So it is. We will actually have to spend a lot of money on training. Ultimately it will be like tens of billions of dollars on training computer. So it's a big number. Would a partnership with XAI help accelerate that? Yeah, I think potentially, yeah, I think that that could. Yeah, there's potential for accelerating that. Yeah. Did the XAI investment thing get approved? No. Yes. Okay, okay, okay, okay. Whatever, whatever. Like it's Tesla and some other company that I have an interest in, then it's like always quite complicated to do things. Has to go through a lot of hoops to happen. But I do think there's a lot of potential for collaboration with Xai in the future and with SpaceX. Right, okay.
- [62:50]
Grainger Narrator
This is the last one.
- [62:52]
Elon Musk
Yeah, sorry. Thank you so much, Captain Elliot.
- [62:56]
Retail Investor 2
Next.
- [62:56]
Retail Investor 3
I support you. Thanks so much for everything you do.
- [62:59]
Elon Musk
Very simple question. I'm from Israel.
- [63:01]
Retail Investor 3
I don't represent a lot of people, but people do ask me and I'm.
- [63:06]
Elon Musk
Going to ask you any chance to.
- [63:08]
Retail Investor 3
Have the app in other languages, like Hebrew for example?
- [63:12]
Elon Musk
Some people struggle with even the app.
- [63:15]
Retail Investor 3
Is the app itself. Yeah, just the app.
- [63:17]
Elon Musk
The app is not in Hebrew. No.
- [63:19]
Retail Investor 3
Oh, and a lot of people don't speak English, so.
- [63:21]
Elon Musk
Oh, okay, shoot. I thought we had it in all languages. Okay, definitely the app needs to be in all languages. All right, all right, thank you.
- [63:48]
Dutch Pet Care Advertiser
Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24. 7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.