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Elon Musk Thinking
Elon Musk Latest Interview by Ron Baron!!!
00:40:09
Elon Musk Latest Interview by Ron Baron!!! Elon Musk is the CEO of the company X, Tesla, Neuralink, SpaceX and the Boring Company. #ElonMusk #RonBaron Source: https://x.com/BaronCapital/status/1989318999927107663?s=20 Follow me on X...
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- [00:00]
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- [00:14]
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- [00:22]
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- [01:03]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Are you going to build something? Is that the idea that we have behind boring company to go underground for the robots to walk around or fly above? Where's the room for them?
- [01:14]
Elon Musk
Well, actually, you can fit all of humanity on core in the city. That's how small the humans are. And Octopus doesn't mind being densely. How much room do people take? And this is why I think just having it in the back of your mind that all 8 billion people on Earth can fit on one floor in the city of New York. So another way to think about it is if you're flying across the country and your goal is to drop a water balloon on someone, you will fail because it's empty.
- [01:50]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
We used to do that when we were in eighth grade. We got them, though.
- [01:58]
Elon Musk
Yeah.
- [01:58]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So, Katelyn, don't worry. There's enough room. So one of the things I think about when you talk about Optimus is that there's so many functions that it can perform. What's going to be left for humans? Is there a job that humans going to have other than just living in this great abundance that you're going to create? What's going to happen?
- [02:17]
Elon Musk
Well, I think there is this question of how do you drive meaningful life if the robots can do everything? But we see lots of examples where even though machines can do much better human, like athletics, for example, or let's take a mental school like chess. Computers are so good that your phone not even connected to the Internet can beat Magnus Calls easily. But yet chess is at all time highs in popularity. So really machines being better doesn't mean we drive satisfaction in doing it.
- [02:56]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
The functions that you see these robots doing is what, what are they going to do and why is that? How are we going to have a billion of them when we have 8 billion people?
- [03:06]
Elon Musk
Look, it's going to take us a minute to make a billion robots. So you know, but I think there will ultimately be billions, billions of humanoid robots on it. A way to think of it is who on earth would not want their own personal R2D2C3PO like pretty much everyone you know. Even better, like a personal helper bunny robot. It would be great. You could teach your kids, take it back from a walk, get the groceries, you know, chat, chat, you know, protect you when needed is great. And then how many robots would there be an industry providing product? Probably three or four to one relative to humans, which, which suggests that total number of robots will be somewhere around maybe as high as $40 billion. 40, 40 billion. Maybe, maybe 30 billion robots. It's a lot.
- [04:02]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So. So the Japanese company named Kukup, those robots that are used in manufacturing are 50,0001-000001-50000. And you're describing a robot that's $20,000. We have to have a million a year to do that or 10 million a year to get to $20,000. And is that something that's going to be affordable for people? Are they going to be rented? They're going to be purchased corporations? Are we going to get some kind of carried interest once they buy them from us? How is this gonna work? Or don't we have the model yet?
- [04:32]
Elon Musk
My rough guess is that the cost of goods sold their labor materials for Optimus after we reach a million units of steady state production. So call it a year after reaching a million units a year. Because it takes a lot of effort to improve the cost. But at that point I would expect the labor materials to be 20 to $30,000 in current year dollars. And that's a pretty. I think that's a pretty safe estimate.
- [04:58]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
When you're improving costs with cars. Your idea is that everything we buy from other people to use in our cars, we know exactly how much it costs and therefore we can tell someone how much we're going to pay for what we're buying from them. And if it doesn't, if they're making too much, then we make that stuff ourselves. Is that the same kind of idea we have in this robots where we're going to should be Much simpler to make than a car. Or am I wrong because of a hand?
- [05:23]
Elon Musk
The hand is. The hand is extremely complex. There are 50 actuators in the hand with the hand and forearm.
- [05:30]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Actuators and motor.
- [05:31]
Elon Musk
Yeah, actuator is the motor, gearbox and power electronics. So that's 100 per robot. Really A lot of butt actuators and sensors. Right? Am I getting that right? Approximately. There's a lot of complexity.
- [05:43]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Why is that important? Why is it important that we have such a complex hand?
- [05:46]
Elon Musk
In order to do dexterous tests, you have to have a hand with the sensitivity, precision and degrees of freedom of a human hand. You know the. So something that is we find easy to do like pick up a screwdriver or turn a wrench or even say thread a needle or play the guitar actually require a lot of dexterity. One of the reasons we, we think we achieve sustainable abundance, which is sort of the, the new. Sort of the revised version of the company's goal because it was accelerate sustainable energy which as you mentioned we've, we've done that our new call this sustainable abundance. So that's abundance for all and. But in a way that is sustainable, that does not destroy any of the natural worlds.
- [06:30]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
How do we decide who gets what? Somebody wants to buy my house. They can just come in and start living there.
- [06:35]
Elon Musk
Well, I'm not sure why. I mean I do have a nice house, so I can certainly see the appeal. The robots will be able to make anyone a house, you know, as long as you. You don't just on it being in a particular location. You can have robbers will be able to build you a castle if you want so and that. But the reason for panic dexterity is you want to be able to do like surgery and precision medical actions. So imagine a world where everyone has access to the best surgeons, literally everyone. And optimists will have the level of precision that is frankly superhuman and will be able to do medical procedures of very sophisticated medical procedures. Procedures, any, any medical procedure. Perhaps things that really humans can't even do because they're too. They're too difficult and that will be available to anyone there. People often talk about eliminating poverty and providing great medical care, but they know they never actually have a solution. And money doesn't solve it because there are only so many. There's a very limited number of great doctors and surgeons. They don't grow on trees, but now they all get built in factories.
- [07:41]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So I sent you a year or two ago an article about a young man who was in interview in Barron's and he was 33 at the time and he'd become a portfolio manager. And he lost his legs to a. I knew it was a Paralympic performer and he lost his legs to man eating bacteria. And he said, is there anything we can do to get him out of the wheelchair? And you said, yes, there is. In three or four years, we can give him an optimus body and then we can use, you know, transistors in his head, in his brain to let him function as a normal person. Dance and sing and walk and run. Have we been able to make progress in that area?
- [08:18]
Elon Musk
Yes. So that's a complex of two of my companies. One is being neuralink and the other being Tesla. Neuralink is also making good progress. Now has, I think over 10 patients with Neuralink implants. And these people who didn't have the ability to move their arms or legs in some cases were completely locked in, like Stephen Hawking. And they can now communicate, I think, as quickly or almost as quickly as we're communicating right now, which is very cool. And that's, that's going to continue to accelerate. What we can do is use a neural link implant that is taking signals from the motor cortex brain and also receiving signals from the somato. Somatosensory cortex and then give someone who's lost their legs, optimus legs. And so you. I mean, we're really getting like the Six Million Dollar man here. I mean, from back in the day. I don't know if you watched that show, but. I watched it.
- [09:08]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
I, I watched it.
- [09:10]
Elon Musk
Yeah. I thought it was pretty fun. Yeah. And, and we, we can actually give someone superhuman cyborg capabilities like the Six Million Dollar man for less than $6 million. Even in this day and age, I mean, $6 million back then was a fortune. These days it's like nothing but, but for much less than that. I mean, like, for something that, that would be reasonable and affordable, you know, it might be more like $60,000 type of thing. And you could take signals from neural mind that would be transmitting to the legs and transmit those to robot legs and he would actually be able to run faster than any human. Just, just like 6 million dollar Neuralink.
- [09:47]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Sounds really exciting. Sounds unbelievably exciting. Let's switch to xai. So three years ago you were here and you had either just purchased or about to purchase, you know, Twitter, which you've renamed X, and you were widely criticized for that. And yes, I was right. In fact, you even mentioned here on stage that you didn't want to have anyone else Be angry at you because you had enough people trying to kill you already.
- [10:14]
Elon Musk
Yeah, yeah, totally.
- [10:16]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So. So you were buying. You were buying X, and it was $42 billion, I think, and you were in the process of raising money, and I called you up. You hadn't called me to solicit me, and I called you up and I said, I would like to invest with you $100 million in this. And it was $60 million for one of our funds and 40 million for me. And. And you said, really? I said, yeah. You said, really? And I said, yeah. And you told me that you thought I would make a double. And I said, well, I hope so. But to me, it felt like you made us $8 billion in Tesla and it'd be not very appropriate if I didn't support this new venture that you were doing. So we invested, and then the day that we paid the money, we marked it down 70%.
- [11:04]
Elon Musk
Oh, man. This is how I know you're a true friend, Ron, because this is, you know, I do regard you as a true. A true and trusted friend. And, you know, the test of friendship.
- [11:20]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
I got more to the story.
- [11:25]
Elon Musk
The test of friendship is who supports you when the chips are down and the times are tough and everyone's against you. That's a real friend. And that's, you know, Ron.
- [11:34]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Thank you. So. So we did invest that 100 marked down to 30. And then about a year later, we started getting phone calls from hedge funds who always seem to know things they're not supposed to know.
- [11:46]
Elon Musk
Yeah. How do they do today?
- [11:48]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Right? And they started saying, I'd like to buy your stock for what you paid for it. And I said, I think I'd rather wait and stay in. Which I did. And then. And then change the name to X and change this configuration of business. And. And then from that, you bought Twitter, and it came together in a social network along with this. And. And. And all of a sudden we have a business that has incredible data. Did you buy this for the data that no one knew about? But. But the data with 600 million people talking with each other, so physical data that no one else has. And then you started grok, which is based on our data, and everyone else doesn't have that. They got digital stuff. And then when they have grok, then we need more data centers. And you're building those. And in a space of a very short time, less than months, you built a data center which is four times what is large as anyone else on the planet, 25,000. What other people had in CPUs and we built it in GPUs 100,000 more powerful. And then, you know, now we have, now we're going to go to hundreds of thousands. But the bottom line is the investment that we made, we put up more money and we have a total of $350 million invested over the past two or three years. And now it's worth $700 million. Everything you touch is like that. It's the most unbelievable thing I've ever seen. So everyone invested in technology and we are investing in the technology person and best engineer on the planet. So thank you very much. So, so the vision is, the question is, did you buy X, did you buy Twitter because of the data? Is that, did you have all this in your head before you did it?
- [13:31]
Elon Musk
Not really, no. I, I just bought Twitter because I thought it was having a negative effect on civilization and just sort of pushing ideas that were anti civilizational. You know, it sort of have been, has been sort of captured by the far left. Know, it's fair to say the radical left, I mean, they wouldn't regard themselves as such, but it was captured by, you know, group of people whose political beliefs are those of, you know, deeply San Francisco and Berkeley, which is about as deep as you get in America. That matter wasn't a good forum for debate because they suspended many people on the right, including the president, as you may recall, a sitting president, which is really, dude.
- [14:14]
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- [14:19]
Chicken breakfast. Come on. I think you mean chicken dinner, bro.
- [14:22]
Nah, brother. Crispy bacon, fluffy eggs, juicy chicken and a buttery biscuit. That's the perfect breakfast.
- [14:28]
All right, let me try it. Mmm. Okay. Yeah, totally. Winner, winner, chicken breakfast. I'm gonna have to keep this right here.
- [14:36]
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- [14:44]
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- [15:01]
Elon Musk
I think we need to have a public square where there's true freedom of speech. And freedom of speech is. Freedom of speech is the bedrock of democracy. If there's no freedom of speech, people cannot make an informed vote. And if you cannot make an informed vote, you don't have a real democracy. So the purpose of acquiring Twitter was To try to bring it more to the center. There have been no left wing voices have been banned or anything like that or suppressed. But what we're trying to do is give equal weight to all parts of the country so that they can be a public town square where people can exchange ideas and hopefully it not reserve violence. I think that's, that's fundamental to. I think it's one of the. Like I said, free speech is the bedrock of democracy. It's why it's the first Amendment, because people came from countries where if they could be killed or imprisoned, what they said. And in fact this is happening all around the world as we speak, even in places like Britain. So that's. Anyway I did because I felt like the civilizational risk had to be addressed. I mean, if America is not strong, then what do businesses matter? America is the central pillar that holds up a western civilization, and if that pillar falls, everything falls.
- [16:18]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So you were one of the founders, the two founders of ChatGPT and you know, OpenAI and you had a disagree and it was founded as a charity and it was your idea that you wanted to make sure, you know, freedom of speech and all the things that you deem important for good lives on our planet were followed by safety. The, the other founder, what he tried to do and did was accomplish is that he got control, even though it was your money and he got control and, and you, and he said, elon, I'd like you to stay. And you said, I want to go, I don't want to be a part of this. And, and he offered you some ownership and you said, I don't want it. And so here you walk away from an ownership of ChatGPT. So you're obviously not doing all this stuff for money. I mean, you are, but I mean that's not. But I mean if it were only about money, you would have never left something that's worth $500 billion by itself. And so here you're forming this new entity, Grok, to accomplish what you wanted ChatGPT to accomplish. But you think that we have an advantage in this because of the data, because of the compute, because of what. And what are you going to do with this? Ultimately you talk about connecting physical world to digital. What does that mean?
- [17:38]
Elon Musk
Yeah, well, just going back to OpenAI for a second. The reason I founded OpenAI was because I was concerned, based on my conversations with Larry Page, who used to be a close friend of mine, that he was not sufficiently concerned about the dangers of AI. This really came to a head when at My birthday party, he in front of a large group of people called me Aspecius for favoring humanity over computers. I found that troubling. I was like Larry, what side are you on? It sounds like you're on the side of the computers, but you really need to be on team humanity here. After that I was like, okay, this is it. We got to have some counterbalance to Google because Larry doesn't seem to care if humans make it or not. So I thought what's the opposite of Google? It would be an open source, non profit. And that's where the word open in OpenAI comes from. It means open source. And I provided all the money beginning like one of the series APC rounds and recruited the key people like Ilya and bought them everything I know. I actually even got them to deal with Microsoft. With Satya actually I got such a to donate some time from Azure and for all that I did not seek any financial reward whatsoever. And the reason I actually turned down the offer for shares is because I mean I felt like what do you shares and why like non profits supposed to have shares these. Last time I checked, they're not space. Non profits are not supposed to be a vehicle for self enrichment. So that's why I turned on the offer of shares because it, it didn't seem morally illegally defenseful. With, with Xai, we, and we are starting late with Xai, you know, we're only kind of two and a half years ago. Basically we're starting from behind. We are somewhat of an underdog but pretty good with technology. So I don't want to pat myself in the backyard, but I'm pretty good with technology and we are advancing faster than any other way. So I think for technology ventures the winner ultimately is the one that is able to move the fastest.
- [19:36]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So we're optimizing for the best technology and we're doing something different than others others in a digital world and we're physical to digital with movements and visual and other people can't match that. And also we have the real time data. What does that mean? Why should we do better than everyone else? Why are we going to win? Why are we going to at least be different than everyone else so we have a really strong business.
- [20:00]
Elon Musk
Well, first of all, I think in terms of being a strong business, I actually not too worried about that because even, even a small player that is successful in AI will be worth a lot because they will contribute so much in productivity to the economy. So, so it's actually pretty easy to.
- [20:15]
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- [20:19]
Chicken breakfast. Come on. I think you mean chicken dinner, bro.
- [20:23]
Nah, brother. Crispy bacon, fluffy eggs, juicy chicken and a buttery biscuit. That's the perfect breakfast.
- [20:29]
All right, let me try it. Mmm. Okay. Yeah, totally. Winner, winner, chicken breakfast. I'm gonna have to keep this right here.
- [20:37]
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- [20:45]
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- [20:59]
Elon Musk
Select homes only achieve got pretty easy but I mean it's not there. There will be many companies that are worth sustainably several hundred billion dollars. Sustainably, then several. Question of like, well, how do we achieve the lead? That comes down to three things. Are you able to attract the best talent? Are you able to bring the most amount of AI hardware online? Can you, can you bring GPUs online faster than anyone else? We've, we've already demonstrated that we can do that. Jensen Wong himself said that he was blown away by how fast Xia lost his data center.
- [21:31]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Jensen said there's only one human on the planet who could have done that. That's you.
- [21:35]
Elon Musk
Yes, he does say that made us.
- [21:37]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Think about are you really human?
- [21:41]
Elon Musk
I keep telling people I'm an alien, but nobody believes me. I mean when I got my green card it said alien registration part. So I mean, you know, have proof from the government. Let's say I've got some, some like relatively rare skills these days in America comes of getting hardware built. If you look at the biggest successes in manufacturing in America Since World War II by far, Tesla and space.
- [22:08]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So, so, so to stay out to stay on grok for another minute. So the idea of connecting physical and digital is that that's different than digital. Digital. Figuring out who wants to buy what. We're doing something entirely different. Is that fair?
- [22:24]
Elon Musk
I wouldn't say we're doing something tighter. We're doing, we're doing some things that are the same, some things that are different. But just saying like the, the elements that define success for an AI company or going to be one the talent to the hardware. How much AI hardware can you bring to bear? That's actually a very big deal and we've shown that we're the best at doing that at xai. And then third Unique access to data. And for that we've got the X system, formerly the Twitter system, which is the by far the best source of real time data in the world. Those are some pretty significant assets and I think we're going to come up with some very innovative ideas. When I have more ideas in my head than I know what to do with, frankly, I think we'll make some moves that are not on the chess that people don't anticipate, some creative moves. And like I said, and I should point out, Grok right now, actually Grok Heavy is still the smartest AI, best of my knowledge. I recommend trying it out. Grok 4 Heavy is where we spawn several agents. They work in parallel, they compare their output like a study group and give you the final conclusion. And it keeps getting better. And now we've begun training on Grok 5. Grok 5 I think will be the smartest AI in the world by a significant margin on every, on every metric, without exception. I might be wrong, but I, I think that will be the case and that will be in Q1 sometime.
- [23:40]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Grok 5, yes.
- [23:43]
Elon Musk
I mean Grok 5 is the first time where I thought, well, we have a non zero chance of achieving artificial general intelligence. Not that it's a high chance. I, I sort of, I calculate like 10%. That's where my biological neural network comes up with, which still means 90% chance that we don't. But I've never thought that before. And so for the first time I think like, well this, this, this really could be general intelligence. At least a small chance. Grock 5 will really be something special and, and it'll be both extremely intelligent, extremely intelligent and extremely fast. So, so one of the things that we're doing that I think is interesting is Grokopedia, which we're going to rename down the road to insight to, to be Encyclopedia Galactic. In one of Isaac Asimov and Douglas Adams who both mentioned that. And the idea behind Galactica is to create an open source repository of all knowledge, like a distillation of all knowledge and an open source, meaning anyone can access it, anyone can use it, and if other people want to train on it, they can do so. And then we want to create copies of this and distribute these copies throughout Earth and even put them on the Moon and Mars and Alpha Deep Space, as in a way, sort of a modern day Library of Alexandria. It was the great tragedy that the Library of Alexandria burned down or was burnt down. And in order to preserve this knowledge, I think we want to literally etch it in stone and sort of stone stone like microphone and distribute it widely. So worst case scenario, future civilization can see what we learned and pick things up from there.
- [25:14]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So is there a major breakthrough that you can describe that allows us to do this with Grok 5? Is it just speed? Is it more compute and therefore we have more analysis, more you know, information we can train on? What is the breakthrough that allows us to have this 10% chance for AGI? Is there, is there a breakthrough or is it just speed and access to data? Not just, but it will be the.
- [25:39]
Elon Musk
Largest model to test my knowledge. So this is, this is a 6 trillion parameter model. Whereas Grok 3 and 4 are based on a 3 trillion parameter model. Moreover, the 6 trillion parameter will have a much higher intelligence density per gigabyte than Grog 4. I think this is an important metric to think about. Intelligence per gigabyte and intelligence per trillion operations. We've learned a lot. So the quality of the data that we're Training on with Grok5 is much higher. It's also inherently multimodal, so it's text, pictures, video, audio. It's going to be much better at tool use and in fact creating tools to be more effective at answering questions and understanding its vision will be extremely good. It'll have real, be able to understand real time, which is I think a really fundamentally important thing that none of the other AIs can understand real time video. And I think if you can't do that, which humans can obviously do, you're, you really can't achieve AGI.
- [26:40]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
By the way, every one of these.
- [26:42]
Elon Musk
There'S some special source items that I, that there's some special source items that I can talk about in a public forum. Obviously you can't give away, you know, all the secrets here just between us, but we have a few other special things that are in the works for Grok5. It's really going to feel sentient.
- [27:04]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So but there is no with Grok 5 when you're talking about the advances, there is no limit. So when we're Grok 5 is better than Grok 4, which is better than Grok frequent. So, so it keeps going. So once we get to sentient levels we go two sentient five sentient ten cent, a million.
- [27:21]
Elon Musk
The, the sentience will grow. I mean what's really mind blowing is how far can the sentience grow? To, to your point, how far does it go? I think it goes immensely far. Most almost incomprehensibly far. Almost does go incomprehensibly far. Like we see a path to putting 100 gigawatts per year of solar powered AI satellite into orbit and having this be actually the lowest cost way to power and operate AI at a very large scale. For reference, the United states consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year, because the average power load in the US is 460g.
- [28:08]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
The whole country? The whole country.
- [28:10]
Elon Musk
All electricity of all sources in the U.S. yes.
- [28:12]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
And you're talking about 100 being added?
- [28:14]
Elon Musk
Well, roughly a quarter of the U.S. electricity output. And we have, we have a plan mapped out to do that. It gets crazy.
- [28:20]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So, so there's what, a trillion planets like Earth in the world, in the solar system, whatever you call it, a trillion. And in that trillion. So big bang was 14 billion years ago, 13 billion years ago, and our planet's only 4 billion years old. So there must be other planets that are like ours with all the minerals, oxygen, hydrogen, silicon, carbon. So life here has been extinguished four times. And presumably you feel that other places, other civilizations, other planets, then we'll get off of this exist. And are they planets where the beings there are part human or part carbon and part metal?
- [29:07]
Elon Musk
Well, I think we'd like to find out. I'd like to find out. I mean my philosophy is one of curiosity. I, I just want to know what's, you know, what's going on in this universe. Is the standard, is the standard physics correct about the beginning of the universe? Is heat death the end of the universe? Are there other alien civilizations? Can we talk to them? And what questions should we be asking about reality that we don't know to ask? So that's my. Is to expand consciousness to better understand the universe.
- [29:32]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So, so let's go to away from the universe, back to Tesla again. As you said that gotta be back.
- [29:40]
Elon Musk
On the ground here.
- [29:41]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Back on ground. And so you said that our expertise is in making things better, faster, cheaper than other people. And when I started investing in Tesla, when we started investing in Tesla, you were telling us that it's the machine that makes the machine that's most important, the machine that makes. So you're into machine learning, machine technology then, which is 15 years ago. And now the average car I think is 50 minutes or 50 seconds, 40 seconds, 60 seconds. And we're now 35 seconds. Every 35 seconds the car rolls off and then you say that we're going to get down to 10 seconds. And you said it's a possibility we can go to 5,5 seconds. Every car is rolling off a line how's that happen?
- [30:27]
Elon Musk
I, I certainly see a path to achieving a roughly 5000 millisecond second time or 5 seconds, which is only, that's only really walking speed. That's like sort of a fast walk. 1 meter per second is a fast walk. The car is less than 5 meters long, 5 second cycle time. The cars will be exiting the line at walking speed speed. So it's, it's you, you can run away from them. It's not, it's not going to be like they're coming out like bullets or something. So but as a, as a rough rule of thumb that's, you know, 10,000 minutes in a week. If you run a 24, 7 operation and you get, you know, let's say 10 cars per minute, you've got 100,000 cars a week.
- [31:06]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So, but the question is, how come we're able to do this? Do other people just not care or they think that, gee, if I do something, if I have this idea and we try to implement it and it doesn't work, then I'm not going to get promoted or I can get fired or I'll get blamed and if it works, then I'm going to have to do a lot of extra work that I wouldn't know how to do if it didn't work. Why don't other people have, you know, a mindset of making things better? Why? The Chinese, they've been great at copying us and in some instances probably even done, done better than us after they've copied for the first time. How, how come do you think that other people haven't been able to make the advances we have? And even the guy from Ford just recently said, gee, those people in China wouldn't give us compliments. But he said the people and the Chinese have copied us. Those people in China are doing great, which is really a compliments us because the reason they're doing great is because us. So why don't other people do this? Why doesn't he do that?
- [32:02]
Elon Musk
Most companies are incrementalist. You know, the management team wants to do, I don't know, 5%, maybe 10% better than last year as opposed to big risks that could fail. And obviously I don't have a problem with taking big risks. Yeah, I'd say and I like to use the tools of physics to analyze things. You know, when I was in the factory one night I was, I was looking at the factory and I was like, you know, this, this could be much more efficient, it could be much faster. I just try to rough Math trying to calculate the volumetric efficiency of the factory. To divide the factory in cubic meters and say how many cubic meters are doing something useful. And it's a surprisingly small percentage. The volumetric density is not very good. And then the speed of the cars and the parts moving is quite slow, generally limited by the speed which people can say attach brake lights or a seat or something like that. So if you densify the factor and improve the volumetric efficiency, efficiency, which is helpful for production efficiency because things have less distance to move. Just like a chip. You densify circuits in a chip to make it more efficient. Think of factories. How do you make a chip faster? Well, you bring circuits closer together, make them smaller and you increase the clock speed.
- [33:16]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So Robin told me that you told her once, I think of myself as a bit. And if I'm a bit, how would I like to travel?
- [33:23]
Elon Musk
That makes sense. Or an atom? If it's the software software or if I'm on a ship, I say what's the journey of the bit? What am I doing? And if, if this journey doesn't make sense, I need to fix it. And if the journey of the atom in the factory doesn't make sense, I need to fix it.
- [33:37]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So when you say you're working on weekends, I spend all my Sundays working on a chip. What does that mean? What do you do?
- [33:42]
Elon Musk
It's Saturdays, but sometimes Sundays. Usually recent weekends it's been Sundays too. The AI 5 chip, which is going to be a great chip, you know, all of Tesla, all of Tesla hinges on that. That's the chip that goes, that will go into our next generation of self driving cars. And it's also essential for the Optimus robot. So that chip program was in bad shape. It wasn't closing because it's quite an ambitious chip design and it really wasn't on a path to success. And then we also had the dojo program which was also doing okay, but not on a path to be competitive with Nvidia. So I collapsed the two programs into just one program. Because to get everyone focused on AI5 chip, which is essential, continue to use Nvidia for training. But we need the AI5 inference chip which is, it's a very powerful.
- [34:30]
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- [35:02]
Elon Musk
Very low power, so it's, it doesn't use a lot of power. So it's performance per watt is extremely good. You think, you know, it's probably going to be at least two to three times better than Nvidia and performance per watt at the inference level in the car and the robot and you know, I don't know, 10% of the cost of an Nvidia chip, something like that. So, so these are very important numbers to achieve. I had to get the chip program back on track. So put immense amount of time into it and at this point I have the entire physical design of the chip laid out in memory. I could visualize the whole thing.
- [35:36]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
But when you're, when you're talking about morning chip manufacturing, you say we might have to build some kind of a giant fab. Presumably we would have a partner with TSMC or with Samsung. We wouldn't do this by ourselves. And those guys have been doing this for. We would do it by ourselves. And, and these are things that cost 20 billion, 30, $40 billion. And where the people come from to do this? How could we not have partners? Is your thought to have a partner to do it by ourselves? Ultimately 10 years, you know, there's not going to be enough chips in the world to accomplish what we're trying to do.
- [36:09]
Elon Musk
Yeah. First of all, I have immense respect for TSMC and Samsung and we, we've worked with both TSMC and Samsung, at Tesla and at SpaceX. TSMC and Samsung are great companies and we want them to make our trip as quickly as they can and scale up to as high as possible volume that, that they're comfortable doing. But the, it's, it doesn't appear to be fast enough. And you know, when I ask how long will it take to start, to finish, to get a new chip fab built, they tell me five, five years to get to buying production. And like five years to me is an opportunity. My, my, my timelines to me too by the way. One year, two year and at year three scale it reels to infinity. So I can't even see past three years. So then I'm like, damn, okay, this is, this is not going to be fast enough. Now if they, if they change their minds and stuff say yeah they're going to go faster and they're, they want to provide us with 100200 billion AI chips a year in the time frame that we need them. That's great.
- [37:08]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
But how could they not when they know that we're demand and we are going to use the product in our own product. How could they not want to be our supplier or how could they not want to be partners with us? I don't understand.
- [37:20]
Elon Musk
They are partners. We're using both tsp, I mean to.
- [37:23]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Really expand capacity tremendously. Why don't they do that from their standpoint?
- [37:27]
Elon Musk
They are because we'll be using TSMC Taiwan TSMC TSMC Taiwan, TSMC Arizona Korea Samsung and the Texas fab Samsung trigger 4 or 5 and you know from their standpoint they're moving like lightning. I'm just saying that nonetheless it would be a limiting factor for us. They're going as fast as they can from this standpoint. There's pedal to the metal. They're just never had someone with absence of company outside this emergency. That's it might just be that the only way to get to scale at the rate that we want to get to scale is to build a really big V and or be limited in output of optimized and self driving cars by the AI chips.
- [38:12]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Obviously you're not going to.
- [38:13]
Elon Musk
Those are two choices to go to.
- [38:15]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Fsd, we don't have too much more time but FSD full serve full self driving, you know we're making these tremendous breakthroughs it seems and you said recently that you didn't want to expand capacity for making cars until you were convinced that that was the case. You are now convinced that's the case. And again here we're making these exponential leaps in making in these cars. And you said that a very large percentage of people who've actually paid for self driving don't use it, have never tried it before.
- [38:48]
Elon Musk
Yes, it's pretty well yeah.
- [38:50]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
How, yeah how we do it, how.
- [38:52]
Elon Musk
Buy something when you want to try it type of thing.
- [38:55]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
It's amazing.
- [38:55]
Elon Musk
Yeah. So. So we're now kind of insisting with customers for safety reasons that we demonstrate full self driving because the numbers are unequivocal at scale. But with with the now over 10 billion miles driven that it's four times safer on full self driving than not. So it's actually a big improvement in safety. And so at this point we're just insisting that we at least demonstrate self driving to customers so they know how to use it and turn it on for Safety reasons.
- [39:33]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
So drives full self driving, drives just like a person, as opposed to having to code to look for every circumstance that would happen. And you had a, you know this, this is a fire truck in front of us with a bicycle attached to it or someone walking his dog while he's driving along. They have to identify everything with a code. What AI does, what we do is we, as I understand it, is to make sure that it's just like us. Is that fair?
- [40:03]
Elon Musk
Yes. The key to achieving full self driving unsupervised, full self driving, much safer than a human, is improving the AI software in the car. We're confident that the AI 4 hardware, that's a chip that we designed, currently made by Samson, is capable of achieving a safety level unsupervised, meaning if you're asleep in the car, at least two to three times that of the average driver, maybe more. And then with AI5, we think you can achieve probably a 10x improvement in safety. So these are really big deals. I mean, I think this is one of very profound things that I'm saying here and I really encourage people to go out there and try Tesla self driving and see for yourself. You can just go to any Tesla store, they'll show it to you. It's not secret.
- [40:48]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
See everyone here, you're benefiting if you try this and then buy it. But once you try it, you're going to buy it. You should try it. And so, so I want to close on what I mentioned this morning on CNBC was that you're not doing this so you can get enough money to buy a beach house. You're doing this. Even mine.
- [41:13]
Elon Musk
Yeah, that's right.
- [41:16]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
But you're doing this because, you know, Larry Page was right, you're a species that you think humans should survive.
- [41:25]
Elon Musk
Yes, I'm unabashedly pro human.
- [41:30]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
I mean, so you're, you're spending actually whether you're worth another trillion dollars or 400 billion, it doesn't really matter. What are you going to do with all this money at the end? What's your plan? How do you want people to think about you?
- [41:43]
Elon Musk
You know, mostly I need to have enough sort of ownership of the companies to be able to continue to direct their activities. But it's from a personal consumption standpoint, I, I don't actually own any vacation homes and I just own one sort of, you know, medium sized house in Austin and, and actually a tiny house at Starbase.
- [41:59]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
I've seen that house. It's tiny.
- [42:01]
Elon Musk
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Actually, people like friends of mine have come to visit, then they thought I was kidding. I'm like, no, it's real. I bought $8,000. But I've done a lot with the place.
- [42:11]
Interviewer (likely Jim Cramer)
Artificial turf in front, middle white paper fence sense.
- [42:15]
Elon Musk
But like I said, with, with AI and robotics there will be abundance world. So people actually, in fact in a benign scenario, there's going to be interesting threshold that that AI passes, AI robotics pass where it's run out of things to do for humans. Literally, it's. It's completely satiated, all human wants. And then I guess you'll have to start thinking about what to do for itself or. I don't know. Overall, I want to sit, take the set of actions that expand consciousness into the future so that the open scale of consciousness grows tremendously and that we explore other star systems like in Star Trek, go places nobody's ever gone before and find out if there are existing alien civilizations or maybe there's a long dead alien civilization and we can look through their ruins that understand what. What they were like and just generally understand the universe.
- [43:10]
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- [43:15]
Chicken breakfast? Come on. I think you mean chicken dinner, bro.
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- [43:24]
All right, let me try it. Mm, okay. Yeah, totally. Winner, winner, chicken breakfast. I'm gonna have to keep this right here.
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