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Elon Musk Thinking
Latest: Elon Musk speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland!
00:31:44
Latest: Elon Musk speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland! #ElonMusk #WorldEconomicForum Source: World Economic Forum Elon Musk is the CEO of the company X, Tesla, Neuralink, SpaceX and the Boring Company. Follow me on X...
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- [00:01]
Narrator
This is the story of the 1. As the purchasing manager at a manufacturing plant, she knows the only thing more important than having the right safety gear is having it there when you need it. That's why she partners with Grainger for auto reordering, so her team members can count on her to have cut resistant gloves on hand and each shift can run safely and efficiently. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click granger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done. Latest interview of Elon Musk.
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Larry Fink
That's better. Thank you.
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Elon Musk
Yeah, we're going to make this interesting.
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Larry Fink
How many quotes are you going to want that are going to be after this session?
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Elon Musk
I don't know, I mean, five.
- [00:48]
Larry Fink
Okay, so good afternoon everyone. It's great to see everybody here. It's been an amazing week here in Davos. Hopefully everybody saw that we are having conversations here. Hopefully everybody agrees there are some conversations that we may disagree, there's many conversations we may have agreed. But through those conversations and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today, the World Economic Forum is here to have those conversations, to have understandings and also resolution. So it's an important component of who we and what we are. And I'm thrilled to have Elon Musk here. He came all the way from California to be here to see all of you. So thank you, Elon.
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Elon Musk
You're always welcome. I heard about the formation of the, the peace summit and I was like, is that, that P, I, E C, You know, a little piece of Greenland, a little piece of Venezuela, we got one. All we want is peace. Okay.
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Larry Fink
I want to, as I said, I'm a pretty proud CEO of BlackRock. Since we went public, the compounding return of BlackRock to our shareholders with 21% since Elon took Tesla public, his compounded return is 43%. This is just another advertisement for everybody, especially for Europeans. This is why more citizens should be investing with growth, investing with their countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds invested with Elon Musk when Tesla went public and how much return would be all the pension funds that invested side by side with Elon and the growth. So a spectacular return. There's very few companies. Well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has that compounded return. So congratulations. I think it's a good measurement.
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Elon Musk
Well, we have an incredible team at Tesla and that's the reason.
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Larry Fink
So I want to get into the dirt, the meaningful component about technology, the possibilities. I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space, and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale, execution. And few, few people, if not anyone, has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues head on. Not just the ideas, but the execution across so many different technologies. Elon. And that's why I thought it was important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos. So you're presently building on AI, on robotics and space, on energy, all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?
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Elon Musk
Well, they're all very difficult technology challenges, but the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization. Like basically maximize the probability that civilization has a great future and to expand consciousness beyond Earth. So take SpaceX for example, that SpaceX is about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, to the moon, to Mars, eventually to other star systems. And I think we should always view consciousness, life as we know it, as precarious and delicate, because to the best of our knowledge, we don't know of life anywhere else. You know, I'm often asked, are there aliens among us? And I'll say that I am one.
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Larry Fink
Or you're from the future.
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Elon Musk
They don't believe me, okay, so, but I think if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. And we have 9,000 satellites up there and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So I'm like, I don't know. Bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness is extremely rare and it might only be us. And if that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to ensure that the light of consciousness is not extinguished. Because we're effectively, the way I view it is, the image in my mind is of a tiny candle in a vast darkness, a tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. And that's why it's important to make life multi planetary, such that if there is a natural disaster or a man made disaster on Earth, that consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX. Tesla is obviously about sustainable technology. And, and, and also at this point we've, we've sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance. So with robotics and AI, this, this is really the path to abundance for all. If you say, you know, people often talk about solving global poverty or essentially how do we make, give everyone a very high standard of living. I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics, which doesn't mean that it is without its issues. I mean, we need to be very careful with AI. We need to be very careful with robotics. We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie, you know, Terminator. He's got great movies, love his movies. But we don't want to be in Terminator, obviously. But, but if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an ex. An explosion in the global economy, an expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent.
- [07:38]
Larry Fink
Can that expansion be broad?
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Elon Musk
Yes.
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Larry Fink
Or is it narrow? And how can that be created? How can it broaden the global economy?
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Elon Musk
Yeah, it's, I mean, I mean, the way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots.
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Larry Fink
Right.
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Elon Musk
And, and actually my prediction is in the, in the benign scenario of the future that we will. The robots will actually make so many robots in AI that they will actually saturate all human needs, meaning you won't be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point. Like there will be such an abundance of goods and services, because my prediction is there'll be more robots than people. So.
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Larry Fink
But how do you then have human purpose in that scenario?
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Elon Musk
Yeah, I mean, you know, there are. Nothing's perfect, you know, but I mean, I mean, it is a necessary.
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Larry Fink
Like.
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Elon Musk
You can't have both. You can't have work that has to be done and amazing abundance for all. Because if it's, if it's work that has to be done, then. And only some people can do it, then you can't have abundance, then it's narrow. It's narrow. Exactly. But if you have billions of humanoid robots, and I think there will be. I think everyone on Earth is going to have one and going to want one, because you would. Who wouldn't want a robot to, you know, assuming it's very safe, watch over your kids, take care of your pet. If you have elderly parents, a lot of friends of mine said they have elderly parents, it's very difficult to take care of them.
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Larry Fink
Expensive.
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Elon Musk
Yeah, it's expensive. And, and it's expensive. And there just aren't enough people to take care of the. There aren't enough young people to take care of the old people.
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Larry Fink
Right.
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Elon Musk
So if you had a robot that could take care of and protect an elderly parent, I think that would be great. That would be an amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things. So overall, I'm Very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. And definitely we are in the most interesting time in history. I think there's more interesting time in history.
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Larry Fink
Can you and I reverse aging in this new history, or are we going to see it?
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Elon Musk
I haven't put much time into the aging stuff. I do think it is a very solvable problem. Like you can. I think when we figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body, you know, with some pretty much age at the same rate. I've never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm ever in my life. So why is that? That means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock that is synchronizing across 35 trillion cells in your body. And you know, there is some benefit to death, by the way. There's a reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan. Because if people do live forever for a very long time, I think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of things just getting kind of locked in place and, you know, it just may become stultifying, just not lack vibrancy. But that said, do I think we'll figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging? I think that's highly likely.
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Larry Fink
I'm looking forward to that.
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Narrator
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Elon Musk
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Larry Fink
Yeah, so the future that you talk about, the AI models, autonomous machines, rockets, depends on massive increases of compute, massive increases in energy, expensive energy, manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to get there? And once again, with all that expenditures, again, how can we make sure that it's broadened, not narrow?
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Elon Musk
I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can and the cost of AI will get is already very low and it's plummeting Every year. I mean almost the cost of AI is almost meaningfully changing on a month to month basis.
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Larry Fink
There's open, there's open models now everywhere. Yeah.
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Elon Musk
Yes, very. There's open models. The open models only lack, they're maybe a year behind.
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Larry Fink
Right.
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Elon Musk
The, the private, the sort of closed models. So, so I think the AI companies will seek as many customers as possible, which means they'll see, they'll provide AI to the world.
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Larry Fink
But the cost of getting to there, the compute, the chips, the fab, the powering that to me, what are the, what are the, you know, those are huge limiting factor.
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Elon Musk
Yeah, I think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.
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Larry Fink
It's just right, it's energy.
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Elon Musk
Yeah, yeah. I mean we're seeing the, the rate of AI chip production increase exponentially, but the rate of electricity being brought online is 3%, 4% a year, max. Yeah, it's clear that we're very soon, maybe even later this year we'll be producing more chips than we can turn on. Except for China. China. China's. China's growth in electricity is tremendous.
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Larry Fink
They're building 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.
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Elon Musk
Actually solar is the biggest thing in China. So China's, I believe China's production capacity on Solar is 1500 gigawatts a year. And they're deploying over a thousand gigawatts a year of solar. Now, you know, for continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly, I don't know, four or five. Call it, that's around 250 gigawatts of steady state power paired with batteries. And that, that's a very big number. That's half of the average power usage in the U.S. right. So U.S. u.S. Power usage on average is, is 500 gigawatts. China, just in solar, just like, just in solar like that can provide steady state power. And batteries can do half of the US Electricity output per year just with solar. Solar is by far the biggest source of energy. And actually when you look beyond, or even on Earth, but certainly beyond Earth, the sun rounds up to 100% of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. So the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about 0.1%. And everything else is miscellaneous. Now even if you were to burn Jupiter in a thermonuclear reactor, the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100% because Jupiter is only 0.1%. If you teleported, teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burnt three more Jupiters and everything else in the solar system, the sun's energy would still round up to 100%. So it's really all about the sun. And that's why one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX within a few years is launching solar powered AI satellites.
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Larry Fink
Right?
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Elon Musk
Because the space is really the source of immense power. And then you don't need to take up any room on Earth. There's so much room in space and you can scale to enormous, I mean you can scale to I think ultimately hundreds of terawatts a year.
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Larry Fink
You and I have had these conversations before, but why don't you tell the audience what would it take for the United States and what type of geography would it take to have that solar field to electrify the United States? And let me ask a question. Why aren't we doing it?
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Elon Musk
Yeah. So I mean, I guess rough way to think about it is 100 miles by 100 miles, we'll call it 160km by 160km of solar is enough to power the entire United States. So 100 mile by 100 mile area is, I mean you could take basically a small corner of Utah, Nevada, Nevada, New Mexico, obviously wouldn't want it all in one place, but it is a very small percentage of the area of, of the US to generate all of the electricity that the US uses. And the same is true actually. I mean for, for Europe you could take a small, you could take relatively unpopulated areas of say Spain and Sicily and generate all of the electricity power that Europe.
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Larry Fink
So why don't you think that there's a movement towards that here and in the United States? Well, there is, as it is in China.
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Elon Musk
Well, unfortunately in the US the tariff barriers for solar panels are extremely high and that makes the economics of deploying solar so artificially high because China makes almost all the solar and attack that.
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Larry Fink
What would it take for Europe or the US to build it commercially if it's that scale?
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Elon Musk
Yeah, I think, I think. Well, I can tell you what we're going to do, you know, SpaceX and Tesla was, is we're building up large scale Solar. So the SpaceX and Tesla team is both separately are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the US of manufactured solar power. And that'll probably take us, I don't know, about three years or something. But these are pretty big numbers and you know, I encourage others to do the same. We Obviously don't control the, you know, U.S. tariff policy, but for, for, for other countries I would recommend that this, China makes solar cells that are incredibly low cost and I think it would be worth doing large scale solar.
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Larry Fink
So I know you are, you're going to be having a couple big announcements on robotics and what it can do. I mean when I went to the factory you showed me those robots. How quickly you talked about the billions of robots, but how quickly and how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and be create that abundance that you talked about?
- [20:53]
Elon Musk
Well, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly. I think. We do have some of the Tesla optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory, except probably later this year. By the end of this year I think they'll be doing more complex tasks and be still deployed in an industrial environment and, and probably sometime next year. I'd say that by the, by the end of next year I think would be selling humanoid robots to the public. But that's when we are confident that it's very high reliability, very high safety and the range of functionality is also very high. You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like to.
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Larry Fink
You're already seeing that in Tesla cars. The software changes that you're doing and what is it every quarter now a software change that upgrades the ability of the robot within the car.
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Elon Musk
Yes, the Tesla full self driving software, we update it sometimes once a week. And recently some of the insurance companies have said that it is actually so safe, Tesla full self driving so safe that they're offering customers half price insurance if they, if they use Tesla full self driving in the car.
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Larry Fink
And that can be monitored by the insurance company. Is that part of the agreement?
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Elon Musk
Yeah, but I think self driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point. Right. And Tesla's rolled out sort of Robotaxi service in a few cities and will be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the U.S. and then we hope to get supervisible self driving approval in Europe hopefully next month.
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Larry Fink
Really? That quickly?
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Elon Musk
Yeah. And then maybe a similar timing for China. Hopefully.
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Larry Fink
I want to move to space because historically space is very capital intensive. It historically been done by governments. Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model, but we've seen it slow to scale and now I'm starting to see it ramping up and what you're doing and other things. Talk to us about the, you know, the automation and AI, how it's changing, changing the economics in building and preparing for us in operating in space. Sure.
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Elon Musk
Well, the key breakthrough that tells that the major breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability. So no one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. We've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage. We've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. But we have to throw away the upper stage. The upper stage burns up on re entry for Falcon 9. So and the cost of that is equivalent to a small to medium sized jet. But with Starship, which is a giant rocket, it's the largest flying machine ever made.
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Larry Fink
That's a rocket that you using for the idea of going to Mars, right?
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Elon Musk
Yeah, Mars and the moon as well as for high volume satellite stuff. So Starship, hopefully this year we should prove full reusability for Starship, which will.
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Elon Musk
A profound invention because the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. It's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect between say a reusable aircraft and a non reusable aircraft. Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very expensive flight. But if you only have to refuel, then it's the cost of the fuel. And so that's really the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space, we think below the cost of freight on aircraft. So, you know, under a hundred dollars a pound type of thing easily. So it makes putting large satellites into space very low, very cheap. And then when you have solar in space, you get five times more effectiveness, maybe even more than that than solar on the ground. Because it's always sunny, it's cold. Yeah, well, toy sunny. So you don't have a day night cycle or seasonality or weather. And you get about 30% more power in space because you don't have atmospheric attenuation of the power. The net effect is solar is five times more. Any given solar panel will do Five times more energy in space than on the ground.
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Larry Fink
Is there any capacity in doing that and taking that power and bringing it back to Earth? Is there any way of doing that? Or you're just taking that power and utilizing it for the needs like building AI data centers in the space?
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Elon Musk
I think the case, it's a no brainer for building AI, solar powered AI data centers in space because as you mentioned, it's also very cold in space. If you're in the shadow, then it's very cold in space. There's 3 degrees Kelvin. So you just have, you have solar panels facing the sun and then a radiator that's like point like pointed away from the sun so it has no sun incidents. And then it's, and then it's just cooling. It's a very efficient cooling system. So net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years, maybe three, three at the latest. Wow.
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Larry Fink
So looking 10 or 20 years out, what would, how would you describe success with AI or space technology? And where do you see it? Is that, can you, are you more certain what's going to happen the next three years or five or 10?
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Elon Musk
I don't know what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing, I think we're, we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year and I would say no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031, call it five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.
- [28:48]
Larry Fink
We only have a number of minutes left, but I want to humanize you for a second. So there's no speculation that you're one piece. Right? I want to, I mean I would frame this question by. You are the most successful entrepreneur industrialist in the 21st century, maybe beyond. I want to, so I want to really get this, you know, what inspired you, who inspired you? What was the foundation of your curiosity? And, and importantly what was the, what was it? Was there a aha moment epiphany at any time in your life and career?
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Elon Musk
Well, I mean as a kid I read a lot of science fiction, sci fi, fantasy books. Yeah. We talked about and comic books and I always liked technology. I didn't expect to be where I am today. Seems incredibly implausible. But yeah, I was inspired by reading about books about the future, about science fiction. And I guess I want to make science fiction, not fiction forever at some point turn science fiction to science fact. And you Know, we want to have like Starfleet and Star Trek, really for real, like where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, traveling to other star systems, beamed.
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Larry Fink
Up to go back to New York. I'd like to just be beamed back to New York instead of flying.
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Elon Musk
Yeah.
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Larry Fink
Talk about Star Trek.
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Elon Musk
No, I guess my essential, what I would call the philosophy, philosophy of curiosity. I'd like to understand the meaning of life. You know, the, is the standard model. Is the standard model of physics correct regarding the beginning of life, beginning of existence, and the end of the universe? What, what questions do we not know to ask that we should ask and AI will help us with these things. So I'm just trying to send. How do we get here? What's going on? What's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are. And if we've got spaceships that are traveling to other star systems, we may find, we may encounter aliens and, or we may find many long dead alien civilizations. But I'm just, I just, I just want to know what's going on. I'm curious about the universe and that's my philosophy.
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Larry Fink
Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime?
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Elon Musk
Yeah, I mean, I would say like, you know, I.
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Larry Fink
That's a long commitment. I've been asked, wasn't that three years each way?
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Elon Musk
It's six months.
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Larry Fink
Six months, that's all it is.
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Elon Musk
Yeah, six months. But the planets only align every, every two years.
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Larry Fink
Okay.
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Elon Musk
So yeah, I've been asked a few times, like, do I want to die on Mars? And I'm like, yes, but just not on impact.
- [32:02]
Larry Fink
That's a good answer. Anyway, we're out of time. Hopefully everybody enjoyed this. I mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk. I could tell you he's a great friend and I constantly learn so much from him and I'm totally inspired by what he has done. Evan's been inspired who he is, and I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future. And I don't think it's such a bad future. And I agree with his optimism. So, Elon, thank you. Any last words?
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Elon Musk
Well, I think generally, I think my last words would be I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future.
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Larry Fink
Good.
- [32:49]
Elon Musk
And generally, I think for quality of life, it is actually better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong rather than a pessimist. And right, on that note.
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Narrator
Thanks for listening. See you in the next episode.