← Elon Musk Thinking
Elon Musk Thinking
Latest Interview of Elon Musk with Stagwells CEO Mark Penn.
00:34:11
Latest Interview of Elon Musk with Stagwells CEO Mark Penn. #ElonMusk Follow me on X https://x.com/Astronautman627?t=RFQEunSF2NwRkCOBc6PkkQ&s=09
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- [00:00]
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- [01:01]
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- [02:03]
Chairman of Stagwell
Chairman of Stagwell here with Lindy Ocarino and an assembled group of about 25 CMOs of major corporations here at CES during the CES to really see the latest in technology and we're graced with Elon Musk who has consented to give us some of his time to answer some of these really burning questions about technology, how it's going to develop and change our lives, and how some of his interactions with government may also change our lives as well and so if I might start off with kind of a big overall question and I'll do some questions and then we'll get some questions in from the group. You know, I have to say that I've been actually a Tesla owner for many years, so.
- [02:53]
Elon Musk
Great, thank you. You're clearly, you're clearly someone of great taste.
- [02:59]
Chairman of Stagwell
Well, I, I will say that I. I drove from Miami to Fort Lauderdale to meet my brother for dinner, about 40 miles, and I did not touch. Well, I touched the wheel. But let me tell you that the Tesla.
- [03:15]
Elon Musk
The car, Dr. Is what you're saying, and you did not need to intervene.
- [03:21]
Chairman of Stagwell
It did not need me for this entire ride.
- [03:24]
Elon Musk
Yeah, it's pretty magical. It's like. Like when you tell people that they've not experienced it, they don't believe you, you know? Yeah.
- [03:35]
Chairman of Stagwell
Yes. And I didn't believe me either because I've been a skeptic about how far it would go.
- [03:41]
Elon Musk
Sure.
- [03:41]
Chairman of Stagwell
And your latest releases of software are, you know, really incredible, so people to try them as a big question. And in that vein, coming in the next decade, what do you think is going to be the greatest advances in technology that will affect people's lives? What should they be expecting to see here from technology in their lives?
- [04:04]
Elon Musk
Okay, well, I don't blow your minds, but AI is going to be big. I feel confident in that prediction. But you know, the funny thing is, if you go back even five years ago, certainly 10 years ago, if 10 years ago, even 15 years ago, I was saying AI is going to be this massive thing that has deep super intelligence, smarter than the smartest human. People thought I was kidding and they thought that that's ridiculous. There's no way a computer is going to be smarter than a human and be able to do all these complicated things. And now the latest AIs are able to pass complicated tests better than most humans. Like, they can pass the medical test better than 80% of doctors or something. AI can diagnose radiography better than most people who've been doing it their whole life. So that's just accelerating, obviously. I think probably if you haven't seen Jensen's talk, it's excellent. And it really shows how much AI is advancing and it's advancing on the hardware front, on the software front. In terms of data, the new sort of thing is synthetic data because we've actually run out of all the books. And you literally run out of. You take the entire Internet and all books ever written and all interesting videos, like, you don't need a thousand cat videos. That are exactly the same, but all the interesting videos and you sort of distill that down into tokens, essentially bits of information. And we've now exhausted all of the. Basically the cumulative sum of human knowledge has been exhausted in AI training. That happened basically last year. And so the only way to then supplement that is with synthetic data where the AI creates. It'll sort of write an essay or it'll come up with a thesis and then it will grade itself and sort of go through this process of self learning with synthetic data, which is always challenging because how do you know it, how do you know if it hallucinated the answer or it's a real answer. So it's challenging to find the ground truth. But it is pretty wild that AI at this point has run out of all human knowledge to train on. Crazy.
- [06:46]
Chairman of Stagwell
I know that you're building for grok, the largest AI center on the planet.
- [06:53]
Elon Musk
We already have. Yeah.
- [06:55]
Chairman of Stagwell
It's an operation Microsoft is planning $80 billion where I used to work for a while.
- [07:01]
Elon Musk
But that's a lot of money by anyone's standards really.
- [07:05]
Chairman of Stagwell
What does it mean? I did a poll and we asked is AI making a difference in your life today? 13% said yes. And they said in five years from now. Will AI make a difference in your life? 87% expect in five years it will make a difference, gigantic difference. Okay, what is it going to do for people? Is it going to anything you want? Right.
- [07:27]
Elon Musk
AI will do anything you want and even suggest things you never even thought of. So I mean AI really within the next few years will be able to do any cognitive task. It obviously begs the question what are we all going to do? But pretty much any cognitive task that doesn't involve atoms, AI will be able to do within, I'd say max three or four years maximum. And then another element of it is the robotics is that you need. So you can't just be thinking, AI can't just be thinking in a data center. It's got to do things. So that's where you need the robots. So and you need, you know, self driving cars which obviously you've experienced. And that rate of improvement is exponential in how good the self driving cars are. You know, we feel confident in passing the basically being better than human driving in about three months, basically Q2 of this year, if we feel confident of passing, having a probability of accident that is better than the average experienced driver and then we'll keep going from there. Ultimately I think it's going to be 10 times safer than a human driver. And then 100 times safer to the point where really it just won't crash. So, and that's, so that's happening this year with Tesla and this is a software update to, you know, our cars. So as you've experienced yourself, it's the same car, it got a software update and suddenly it's way smarter at driving.
- [09:19]
Chairman of Stagwell
Well, let me try a few timelines then because, you know, look, I'm not the youngest guy around, so I want to.
- [09:29]
Elon Musk
My standards for what is young get older every year as I get older.
- [09:33]
Chairman of Stagwell
I used to build computers and kits. Right. When, when you didn't. Couldn't buy them yet and I don't have to do that anymore. So self driving, some timelines, self driving cars, certified, government certified, self driving, you think will be within a year?
- [09:48]
Elon Musk
Well, I mean there already are autonomous, you know, in, in small, in some regions, like Waymo has autonomous vehicles with no one in it, but they're limited to like a few cities in the U.S. the Tesla solution, which is a much more difficult path to go but ultimately much more powerful, is a general solution to self driving. So the Tesla software is just purely AI and vision, doesn't rely on any expensive sensors, no lidars, no radars, or it doesn't even require knowing the area beforehand. Like you could put, you could have it drive someplace it's never been before, and no Tesla's ever been before. It could even be an alien planet. I mean it. And the car will still work, still drive. So, and so that's this year, you know.
- [10:43]
Chairman of Stagwell
When can I get a home robot?
- [10:45]
Elon Musk
Okay, right. Well, so that's the other element is our humanoid robots. So I think probably most people, if not everyone, would like to have their own personal C3PO, R2D2. And I actually think humanoid robust will be the biggest product ever in history by far.
- [11:08]
Chairman of Stagwell
I agree.
- [11:10]
Elon Musk
Yeah. It's just wild because you can just say, well, every human is going to want one, most likely, and some will want two. And then there'll be all of the industry in terms of making, providing products and services. So you have to say, what's the ratio of humanoid robots to humans? My guess is it's at least three to one, four to one, maybe five to one. So we're talking about 20, 30 billion humanoid robots. And you know, the, it's not even clear what money means at that point or if there's any meaningful cap on the economy. I think at that point, assuming that things haven't gone awry, you know, in the good AI scenario, I think we will have. We won't have universal basic income, we'll have universal high income.
- [12:00]
Chairman of Stagwell
So do you think five years for my first robot or.
- [12:05]
Elon Musk
Well, for Tesla, we're, you know, Optimus robot really is. It's. Unless somebody's got something secret we don't know about. Our Optimus robot is the most sophisticated humanoid robot in the world. It's got a hand that has 22 degrees of freedom. It looks and feels like a human hand. And we're aiming to have several thousand of those built this year. Initially, we'll test them out at Tesla factories, but then assuming things go well, we'll 10x that output next year. So we'll aim to do maybe 50 to 100,000 humanoid robots next year, and then 10x it again the following year. It's like 500,000 robots in three years. That's a lot.
- [12:53]
Chairman of Stagwell
That is a lot.
- [12:54]
Elon Musk
Yeah. Maybe we should think of this in terms of Roman legions. How many legions of robots will we have? Like a Roman Legion is 5,000.
- [13:07]
Chairman of Stagwell
When will we have a colony on Mars?
- [13:10]
Elon Musk
Well, I think we'll be able to send the first uncrewed spacecraft to Mars in two years. So Earth and Mars synchronize every two years. And so we're at a synchronous point right now. So then the next one will be in roughly two years from now, and then it'll be two as from then there'll be another one. So for the first trip, obviously we want to make sure that we, we can land starship without crashing. We need to prove that we can land starship on Mars without incrementing the crater count. And if those land safely, then maybe on the next trip we would send people and then hopefully that would grow exponentially. So eventually there'll be thousands of starships going to Mars. And I might have this like really cool visual like Battlestar Galactica or something. You know, the colony ships departing altogether with these like bright points of light in space. I think it looked really cool, but I think the goal has to be to get to the point where Mars is self sustaining. So the point at which Mars is self sustaining, which is really defined as the point at which if the resupply shifts from Earth, stop coming for any reason that Mars doesn't die out, that Mars can continue to grow. So if there's something that happens on Earth, like let's say there's a World War 3 or some natural disaster or who knows what, but for whatever reason, the resupply ships stop coming. If Mars can still continue to survive, then the probable lifespan of civilization is dramatically greater. So you know, if you sort of stand back and say, how would you evaluate any civilization? You'd say like, well, is that civilization still stuck on its home planet or are they a multi planet civilization? And we don't want to be one of those lame one planet civilizations. We're going to have a respectable outcome here. Even if we don't make it beyond our solar system, we're at least got to get to another planet, you know.
- [15:16]
Chairman of Stagwell
And finally on my list, brain to technology. Communication. Yeah, communication. Am I, am I going to see that also? Because right now this is looking pretty good for me.
- [15:26]
Elon Musk
Yeah, so we've got Neuralink. We've got now three patients with three, three humans with Neuralinks implanted and all working well. And we've upgraded devices that, where the devices will have more electrodes, basically higher bandwidth, longer battery life and everything. And so we expect to hopefully do 20 or 30 patients next year or this year, I should say, with the upgraded neuralink devices. And this, our first product is we're trying to enable people who have lost their brain body connection. So they're a tetraplegic or paraplegic or basically like you can imagine, like say Stephen Hawking. If Stephen Hawking could communicate as fast or even faster than a normal human, that would be transformational. So that's our first product is being able to read the motor cortex of the brain and say that if you think about moving your hand, it will move the cursor on the screen and it enables people to control their computer or their phone just by thinking. And then our next part will be blind sights that even if somebody has lost both eyes or has lost the optic nerve or if they've been blind from birth, we can interface directly with the visual cortex in the brain and enable them to see. And we already have that working in monkeys, actually I have a monkey who's now had that for I think two years. And so enabling, sort of basically enabling people to control devices. And ultimately we think if you have a second neuralink device that is past the point where the spinal damage occurred, we can actually transmit the signals from the brain past the, where essentially the wires are broken and enabled someone to walk again. So that would really be profound, obviously, but I'm confident that that is physically possible. And then the long term goal for Neuralink is to be able to improve the bandwidth. So right now when we're speaking, bandwidth in bits per second is quite low and the sustained bandwidth of a human is less than one bit. Per second over a 24 hour period. So there's 86,400 seconds in a day. And the average human outputs much less than 86,400 bits in a day. If someone's a writer, they might all exceed that. But most people do not output more than the number of seconds in a day.
- [18:14]
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- [19:16]
Elon Musk
With a neuralink, you could increase that output capability by a thousand or maybe a million. So it would be a profoundly different experience. Like you'd be superhuman, essentially.
- [19:30]
Chairman of Stagwell
Put me down for all of this so far. An early adapter.
- [19:35]
Elon Musk
Yeah. And trust me, you really like the chip. I can guarantee it.
- [19:42]
Chairman of Stagwell
And let me kind of bring us down to earth for a question. On Doge, I worked very closely actually with President Clinton in the 90s where we did have reinventing government. We did balance the budget in two years, actually.
- [19:57]
Elon Musk
That's awesome. Oh, those were the days.
- [20:00]
Chairman of Stagwell
Well, it's been a while. It didn't last very long because it got blown up very quickly. Have you identified some cuts that you're really. That you're really looking at that you think will be successful? Do you think the 2 trillion is. Is a realistic number now that you're looking more closely at it?
- [20:17]
Elon Musk
Yeah. Well, I think we'll try for 2 trillion. I think that's like the best case outcome. But I do think that you kind of have to have some overage. I think if we try for 2 trillion, we've got a good shot at getting one. And if we can drop the budget deficit from 2 trillion to 1 trillion and kind of free up the economy to have additional growth such that the Output of goods and services keeps pace with the increase in the money supply, then there will be no inflation. So that I think would be an epic outcome. And in terms of saving money in the government, well, as you point, as you know, it's a very target rich environment for saving money. Like if you, if you look at any direction, it's like, it was like, where will you find places to save money? I'm like, it's like being in a room full of targets. Like you could close your eyes and you can't miss. So there's just a lot of waste in government because especially the federal government, you've just got a situation where the checks never bounce. Like they've got like the infinite money computer. And then the people that spend the money are not the people, it's not their money. It's very hard for people to care about spending someone else's money. And then even if you, I know people in the government who do care about, just as a matter of principle, spending money effectively and they try to do so and they can't, the system prevents them from doing so. And they even get told to do crazy things, as probably sounds familiar, where you get towards the end of the budget cycle and they're told to spend up to their budget, even on nonsense stuff, because if they don't spend their budget, the budget gets reduced. So it's actually sort of a perverse incentive to waste money and then they kind of get punished for not wasting money. So it's totally bananas.
- [22:29]
Chairman of Stagwell
Well, I agree. You will find, you know, I, I did a mathematical analysis in terms of how government used to do things. So if you take the Brooklyn Bridge or the Lincoln Tunnel and you. Yeah, yeah, inflation, the infrastructure bill should actually get you 4,000 adjusted. Break Lincoln Tunnels, which of course. Yeah, of course it's not because government is sufficient as it used to be.
- [22:53]
Elon Musk
No, exactly. Essentially we've had an accumulation of laws and regulations that make basically any large project essentially illegal. And even if you've tried to do it, you've got to satisfy, you've got to spend way more money on the paperwork than on the thing itself. And then it gets delayed. And so there's, there's an element of like Doge, which is very important, which is looking at regulations and getting rid of ones where the harm is worse than the good. Like you say, like, well, any given regulation, it's like, okay, there's some amount of good, some amount of harm, but you know, what's that ratio? Is it like, you know, and there's A lot of regulations where frankly they're completely nonsensical and we want to get rid of nonsensical regulations that do not serve the public good.
- [23:46]
Chairman of Stagwell
Well, Linda Yaccarino in her keynote here mentioned the Doge thing and she got enormous applause. So I think the country is really waiting to see this effort. They're behind it, they're optimistic. Let me try to get in one more topic here before I get one or two other questions out there, which is obviously Mark Zuckerberg made an amazing 180 degree turn.
- [24:12]
Elon Musk
Yeah.
- [24:12]
Chairman of Stagwell
You know, what's your reaction to what he did and his acknowledgement, frankly, that the government was in fact censoring things or he was censoring things, or the government or some combination thereof.
- [24:26]
Elon Musk
Yeah, I mean, there's no question, I mean, 1000% the government was censoring things. We know that for a fact from the Twitter files. I mean, some of the stuff was like, pretty illegal, frankly. I mean, the FBI had this portal into Twitter where they could spy on anything and censor anything and had a two week auto delete. So we don't even know what they did except that they had immense power to do whatever they wanted, which doesn't sound legal. And you know, that sounds pretty crazy. And you know, there was also a lot of self censoring and I don't know, there was just a lot of censoring going on. And I think you, I feel very strongly that the. You have to have freedom of speech to have a functioning democracy. You know, if you don't have freedom of speech, freedom of expression, then how do you know what's really going on? And if you can't make an informed vote, then you don't have, you don't have a real democracy. So it's just, that's incredibly important to, I think, listen to the wisdom of the founders of the country and say, why did they make that the First Amendment? You know, and they did it for a reason. It's because they came from places where there was massive censorship and the penalties for speaking your mind would be, you know, fines, imprisonment or death. And they're like, we really don't like that. We want that to not be the case in America. So then they, you know, freedom of speech.
- [26:03]
Chairman of Stagwell
You just posted. You are the media. Citizen journalism. I mean, really becoming more and more important in this age of media. And you see it with the, with the wildfires here.
- [26:15]
Elon Musk
Yeah, exactly.
- [26:16]
Chairman of Stagwell
It really takes the citizens to report and tell people.
- [26:21]
Elon Musk
Yeah. Actually you think of it like before there was, before the Internet you kind of had to have the, what I call legacy media, which is you had to have some aggregation points where, you know, you'd have reporters going, find things out. Then they would come to, they would go to their office, they would write up articles, they would then print those articles on paper. That paper would then be distributed. And it was kind of the only, it was the only way to know what was going on. But it was very slow, especially in the old days. You know, I think when, like, when Lincoln was assassinated, I think it took like three weeks for the, that news to reach Asia or something like that, you know, and in fact, in the old days, like, you wouldn't even know that your country had gone to war because it would take like a month for the fact, hey, we're at war to reach your village.
- [27:16]
Chairman of Stagwell
Yes. We actually learned about Pearl harbor because we decoded the Japanese. They didn't know that we decoded their, their, their cyber system.
- [27:27]
Elon Musk
Right.
- [27:28]
Chairman of Stagwell
And that's how we actually learned about, about it.
- [27:30]
Elon Musk
Yeah.
- [27:31]
Chairman of Stagwell
And, and, you know, we have just, if I can squeeze in, I just got three minutes here.
- [27:36]
Elon Musk
It's fine if you got a little longer if you want.
- [27:38]
Chairman of Stagwell
Okay, thank you. I, I so just, I got three questions in from the audience that Dan Gardner and Toby Daniels of On Discourse Head want to know. Do you think the Internet sucks and what do you think we need to.
- [27:52]
Elon Musk
Do to fix it? You mean the content on the Internet or your Internet connection? Because Starlink can help you on the Internet connection. Starlink is great for Internet connectivity. So, you know, especially for, like, faces that have bad connectivity. In fact, I think Starlink is really having a significant effect in terms of lifting people out of poverty. In fact, in many parts of the world where people have a product that they want to sell, but if they don't have an Internet connection, they can't do it, and, or if they want to learn things like, basically, you can learn anything on the Internet for free. Like, MIT has all its lectures that are available for free on the Internet, but you need an Internet connection. So once you have an Internet connection, you've got access to education, you've got access to global market. So I think it's very significant at how connectivity makes difference in people's lives. But now with respect to maybe the question was geared at, like, is there too much negativity on the Internet? I think at times there is too much negativity. And, you know, actually on the X platform, I proposed, like, well, we were going to tweak the algorithm to be a bit more Positive. And then people got upset about me for that. I'm like, I'm like, okay, like what do you guys want, you know?
- [29:11]
Chairman of Stagwell
Well, actually the second question from Zach Moffat, CEO of Target Victory, was how do you make pessimism uncool again? So I think it ties to maybe exactly what you're saying, which is that, you know, it's become people, people are afraid. You know, this used to be a can do nation, so always very positive. And now the country, when I ask if we're on the right track or the wrong track, they never say that we're on the right track anymore.
- [29:36]
Elon Musk
Okay, well, hopefully, you know, hopefully with this, you know, I'm actually pretty optimistic about the next four or five years. I think we're actually gonna, I think we have the potential for a golden age. So we need to, it's very important to get rid of the mountain of regulations that are holding things back. And I don't mean there's some good regulations, but there's just so much that we just can't get anything done. I mean, you take sort of the California wildfires, for example. We really need to have fire breaks and we need to clear the brush back away from houses and we need to make sure the reservoirs are full. These are all kind of obvious things, but due to a bunch of environmental rulings, you can't actually do that in California. So they're not allowed to do the five rakes and they're not allowed to push the, the brush back away from houses because it might, it might hurt some like red legged frog or something like that. You know, there's like some sort of creature, usually a creature you've never heard of, that is preventing this from occurring. You know, there's this is, there's like this fish called the smelt for example. And so there's. So we have far more fresh water runoff into the ocean than we should really on the theory that it helps this one little fish that likes a slightly briny freshwater saltwater mix. And if we keep more fresh water, then the smelt fish will not be happy. But there's no actual evidence that the smelt fish is going to be unhappy if we keep a bit more fresh water, in fact. So we should keep more fresh water, keep the reservoirs full and just have some sensible fire breaks and move the brush away from houses. That's just an example of like we've saved a lot of trouble, a lot of tragedy in LA if we've done that. So, you know, and yeah, I think, I think AI and Robotics is going to lead to a higher standard of living for people beyond what they can imagine. So I think we're going to have AI doctors in medicine that are pretty incredible.
- [31:53]
Chairman of Stagwell
So that's the final question she says, from Catherine Heritage. Heritage. If I got that right, if all the robots and everything frees up time for humans, what is it they will do with that time? Or what can we ask them to do with that time? I think that's a question that rounds out the circle of technology.
- [32:20]
Elon Musk
Yeah, I guess it would be a bit like being retired. I mean, there's. Now, this will take a few years, but at some point, as AI and robotics get better, eventually AI will be able to do everything that humans can do. So any task you do will be optional. Like, it'll be like a hobby or, you know, so now it does beg the question, well, like, will this, will our lives have meaning if the computers and the robots can do everything better than we can? And that is, that is a real question. I do wonder about that myself. And that's maybe that's why we need the neural link, so we can enhance human capability, so we can keep up with the machines.
- [33:11]
Chairman of Stagwell
Yeah, well, I, I just want to thank you for, well, this obviously incredibly optimistic view about technology and where it's going. I, I feel reassured that the, the kind of leaps that, that are going to be made, particularly what you're working on, are, are just incredible in the next few years. Not, not decades away, but really very close. Talked in terms of years consistently and very thankful for that. And, and I think that that's, you know, absolutely tremendous message here at the, you know, where we are in Las Vegas kind of studying what, what technology is going to be available to people. And, and really, again, thank you for the tremendous role in opening up free speech and for the role that, that X and, you know, Linda is playing in terms of that. I know that we're, we're working to get full recognition by everyone of the platform, as it should be, because free speech is, I think, the proper way to go.
- [34:11]
Elon Musk
Yeah, I think an unbalance is good. And, you know, one of the things I try to create conceptually with the X platform is like, it's like a global consciousness. It's like collective consciousness of humanity. Now, if you have a collective consciousness of humanity, well, you're going to get every aspect of humanity good and bad. That's just naturally what happens. So. But I do want it to be a good and productive thing. And the aspiration is to maximize unregretted user minutes. So like you spend time on the platform, it's like, well, did you regret it or not regret it? And we want to maximize unregretted user time.
- [34:54]
Chairman of Stagwell
Well, and I always go back, you know, I always say that everything in technology was either in the Jetsons light, you know, it's either in Star Trek or the Jetsons, more or less. Right. But the one thing that was never predicted in any book that I could find is social media. So it's the one thing that they really. No book built around how social media would develop, how it would really impact society, how it would move political movements and so forth. And it's interesting that everybody missed that in their, in their projections. And so I guess the last closing question maybe is what do you want X to be and where is that platform going to go?
- [35:38]
Elon Musk
Well, I mean, I do want X to be a force for good. That. Exactly. So I do want X to be a force for good. And I do view it as sort of like the group mind of humanity. And we want to have a sort of a healthy, happy, insane group mind versus the opposite. And I mean. Or. Yeah, so. And I want it to be just like the best source of truth. Like if you're trying to understand what's going on in the world, that it has the most accurate, the most up to date information about anything large or small. So it gives you the best understanding of what's going on in the world, you know, anywhere, anytime. Yeah.
- [36:41]
Chairman of Stagwell
Terrific. Thank you. Any closing thought you want to leave us with, otherwise, I want to thank you for being so generous with your time.
- [36:49]
Elon Musk
You're welcome. I think I would encourage people to be optimistic about the future. I think it's much more likely to be good than bad. So that's my prediction.
- [37:00]
Chairman of Stagwell
Thank you.
- [37:09]
Elon Musk
All right, thanks, guys.