Empire: World History — Episode 330

The Iranian Revolution: 1979 vs. 2026 (Ep 1)

Hosts: William Dalrymple & Anita Anand
Guests: Scott Anderson (author of King of Kings), Ramita Navai (journalist, former Times Iran correspondent)
Release Date: February 3, 2026

Main Theme & Purpose

This gripping episode explores current turmoil in Iran (2026) by drawing insightful parallels—and marked contrasts—with the 1979 Revolution. Joining William Dalrymple and Anita Anand are acclaimed author Scott Anderson and veteran journalist Ramita Navai, who provide deep historical context and firsthand perspectives on the forces shaping both revolutions. The hosts and their guests examine evolving protest tactics, leadership vacuums, collective nostalgia, and the role of geopolitics within the shifting Iranian landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Context: Iran in Crisis (00:19–05:11)

• Current Upheaval: Widespread protests and violent crackdowns have left thousands dead. The sense of a "geopolitical earthquake" pervades.

  • “All eyes are on Iran, a country in turmoil. A country that seems to be on the cusp of an enormous transformative change. And yet it feels like we have been here before.” — Anita Anand (00:19)

• A Rare Dual-Expert Panel: Scott Anderson brings deep research on 1979; Ramita Navai provides personal and journalistic insight as a native Iranian and past Times correspondent.

2. A Strategic Shift: Monarchist Nostalgia Resurfaces (04:54–11:36)

• Rallying Around the Shah: Groups are uniting (for expediency) around Reza Pahlavi (son of the last Shah), and the pre-revolutionary lion-and-sun flag is oddly prevalent in cities across Iran.

  • “I could hear ‘long live the Shah, Javi Shah, Javid Shah’...I’ve never heard that on the streets of Iran. That is a strategic shift.” — Ramita Navai (05:23)

• Not True Consensus: Guests clarify that while chants surface, not all oppositional groups actually want the Shah’s return. Many see him, if at all, as only an interim figure.

• Nostalgia as Rebellion: The regime’s decades-long demonization of the Pahlavi era and “Persianness” has fueled an oppositional embrace of pre-revolutionary symbols—even among those ambivalent about monarchy.

  • “It is the ultimate insult you can throw back to the regime...now you’re supporting the mortal enemy.” — Scott Anderson (07:12)

3. The Search for Leadership: Leaderless Movements & the "Shah Option" (11:36–17:32)

• Why Just One Name?: Lack of a clear alternative has long stymied resistance. The decentralized, "leaderless" structure protected movements like “Women Life Freedom” but also limited their effectiveness.

  • “One of the reasons the protests managed to carry on for so long is because there was no leader. But that's also one of the reasons why so far, uprisings in Iran haven't been successful.” — Ramita Navai (14:37)

• The Exile Factor: Previously, only diaspora groups, especially in California (“Terrangeles”), fixated on Reza Pahlavi, but now his symbolic presence is visible on Iranian streets.

• Recent Strategic Shift: Grassroots activist leaders—some even imprisoned—have sent word to support Reza Pahlavi as a unifying, though uncomfortable, interim figure, purely as a pragmatic route to regime change.

4. Parallels and Contrasts: 1979 vs. 2026 (18:31–29:42)

• Carter & the Shah — Signals of Weakness (19:11–23:26):

  • In 1977, mass anti-Shah demonstrations in Washington D.C.—violence and bad optics, live-broadcast back to Iran—convinced Iranians that U.S. support was waning, sparking the first domestic protests.
  • “The optics were terrible...so many ironies about the Revolution, but one is that actually the Shah and Carter at that first meeting, there was very much a meeting of the minds. They liked each other genuinely. But the optics were...couldn’t have been worse.” — Scott Anderson (23:12)

• The Myth of Reform and This Regime’s Awareness (23:34–26:33):

  • While 1979's elites were unaware of their vulnerability, today's Islamic Republic regime is acutely conscious of public hatred and is reacting with lethal force.
  • “The Islamic regime also knows that the majority of people, its citizens, want it toppled...we know that from the regime’s own internal bulletins that were hacked during ‘Women Life Freedom.’” — Ramita Navai (25:29)

5. Economics as a Catalyst: Echoes of History (27:08–29:08)

• Economic Collapse as Spark: Both revolutions were/are driven by a dramatic worsening of living standards—with a collapsing currency and high unemployment in 2026 paralleling the crash after the oil boom in 1977–78.

  • “It was the economic factors that brought people out to the streets...most of all there was an economic thing.” — William Dalrymple (27:23)

• Corruption and Class Tensions: Both eras feature resentment against looting elites and deepening social divisions. The difference: the Islamic Republic’s veneer of religiosity is now hollow, with empty mosques as a potent metaphor.

  • “I’ve never been to any Islamic country in the world where the mosques are more empty today than in Iran.” — William Dalrymple (29:13)

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• On Living Change:

  • “Things are changing apace...all of these disparate groups...now seem to be coalescing under the banner of the progeny of the last Shah.” — Anita Anand (04:12)

• On Unprecedented Monarchist Chants:

  • “I’ve never heard that (chants for the Shah) on the streets of Iran...that’s a strategic shift that I have heard has come from activist leaders.” — Ramita Navai (05:23)

• On Nostalgia’s Political Purpose:

  • “It’s the ultimate sort of insult you can throw back to the regime...now you’re supporting the mortal enemy.” — Scott Anderson (07:12)

• On the Dangers of Leadership:

  • “There were many executions after ‘Women Life Freedom.’ The prisons became torture camps.” — Ramita Navai (14:37)

• On the Shah’s U.S. Visit, 1977:

  • “It was the most violent day in Washington D.C. in a decade...all broadcast live back in Tehran...and it backfired.” — Scott Anderson (21:00)

• On Failed Reform:

  • “What we do know is that the majority of Iranians want this regime toppled. And I tell you something else—the Islamic regime also knows that...” — Ramita Navai (25:29)

Important Segment Timestamps

• (04:12) — Discussion of regime opposition coalescing around Pahlavi nostalgia.
• (05:23) — Navai describes unprecedented monarchist slogans in current protests.
• (08:07–09:03) — Exploration of nostalgia for pre-Islamic Persian identity.
• (11:36) — Discussion asking if there’s any real majority view inside Iran.
• (14:03–14:37) — Why only the Shah as a unifying name.
• (18:31) — Transition to historical look at the 1977/78 context.
• (21:00–23:12) — Scott Anderson recounts the symbolic anti-Shah protests in Washington.
• (25:29) — Evidence that regime knows its population wants it gone.
• (27:08–29:08) — Economic parallels: public anger at elite corruption, role of economic crisis in mobilizing protest.

Tone and Takeaways

The discussion is urgent, analytical, and laced with both a historian’s perspective and the emotional gravity of lived experience. Both guests are mindful that while echoes of 1979 resound—the role of crisis, the speed of collapse, and the power of nostalgia—there are crucial differences: the regime’s awareness and ruthlessness, the search for unity among leaderless activists, and the uncertainty of whether history’s cycle will repeat—or rupture—in Iran.

Closing Fact-Check (30:03):
As of January 30, 2026, the Human Rights Activist News Agency confirms 5,459 protesters dead, with up to 30,000 possible deaths reported by Iran’s own Health Ministry amid ongoing turmoil and repression.

[End of Summary]