For a century, the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the world’s key energy choke points. But during the past couple of decades, the U.S. relationship to the shipping lane has changed.

In this special episode of the Energy Capital Podcast, Josh Rhodes talks with Michael Webber about what the Iran conflict means now, especially for Texas. The U.S. is not as vulnerable to oil shortage as it once was, but greater energy self-sufficiency does not insulate the country from global prices.

The U.S. now produces more oil and gas than it did in the 1970s, when another energy crisis rooted in the Middle East rattled the U.S. economy. That leaves the nation less vulnerable from a security perspective.

But consumers in Texas are still tied to global markets through pricing, refining constraints, and fuel trade flows. As Webber explains, even if the country has enough energy overall, price spikes abroad can still show up here at the pump, and they can linger.

The conversation gets into a few issues that will develop over the coming weeks and months:

* Why gasoline and diesel prices may rise with a delay, then fall more slowly than consumers expect.

* Why U.S. oil abundance does not fully protect Americans from disruption overseas.

* Why Texas benefits, and what’s at risk, from the state’s current energy mix.

Rhodes and Webber also stress that resilience covers a range of issues: what resources can be refined, what generation and infrastructure can be built, and how quickly the system can adapt to challenges. That spotlights variables including refining capacity, permitting reform, and the roles of wind, solar, batteries, and electrification in reducing exposure to fuel volatility.

The episode explores how Texas fits into a deeply interconnected global energy system, even after the state’s shale revolution.The unresolved question: if the disruption in the Middle East continues, where will the state’s real vulnerabilities start to show?

Energy Capital Podcast is produced by ClarityForge Studios.

Timestamps

* 00:00 - Iran Conflict & U.S. Exposure

* 02:29 - Why Prices May Rise

* 03:57 - Self-Sufficient, Still Coupled

* 06:07 - Texas Refining Constraints

* 08:03 - SPR, Export Bans, and Policy Tools

* 10:48 - Renewables, Gas, and Energy Security

* 16:35 - Affordability Politics

* 19:14 - Permitting Reform & Outro

Resources

People & Organizations

* Texas Energy & Power (Website - LinkedIn - YouTube)

* Joshua Rhodes (LinkedIn)

* IdeaSmiths (Website - LinkedIn)

* Michael Webber (LinkedIn)

* Webber Energy Group (Website - LinkedIn)

* International Energy Agency (Website)

* U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (Website)

Company & Industry News

* US gasoline prices soar past $3.75 a gallon as Middle East war rages on

* Oil settles up 9% as Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed

* Goldman Sachs raises Q4 Brent, WTI crude price forecast amid longer Hormuz disruption

* Here’s the energy policy we need for the war in Iran

Related Podcasts by Energy Capital Podcast

* Build Fast or Fall Behind with Michael Webber

* Interview with Energy Expert Dr. Michael Webber

Related Posts by Texas Energy & Power

* The Growing Importance of Energy Efficiency

* Why Are Energy Bills Rising So Fast?

Transcript

Joshua Rhodes (00:05.558)

Welcome to the Energy Capital podcast. This is a bit of a special edition where we’re going to talk to Dr. Weber again. We’re talking on Friday, March 13th, and we’re really kind of doing a little bit of a current events type take on the energy impacts of the current conflict in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Weber just published an article or an op-ed in the Houston Chronicle where he just talked about the energy implications of what that would mean for the U.S.

Joshua Rhodes (00:33.624)

So Dr. Michael Weber, welcome back to the Energy Capital Podcast.

Michael Webber (00:39.502)

Thanks so much. It was great to be here and have another conversation with you. I appreciate you inviting me. Absolutely.

Joshua Rhodes (00:43.854)

Well,

Joshua Rhodes (00:44.234)

let’s dive in. You wrote in your op-ed that the energy risks we worried about 20 years ago, like disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, that are actually happening right now, but you argue that the U.S. might not care as much this time around. Why is that?

Michael Webber (00:58.51)

That’s right. say that first of all, the risks of the Strait of Hormuz have been known since the seventies, but really amplified as a risk in the eighties with the Iran-Iraq-Tinker war that happened in the eighties and is really the main justification for why the US Navy projects so much force there just to keep the shipping lanes open, all that kind of thing. So the risk of the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point for global commerce around oil and refined products and helium and aluminum and other things like fertilizer area, that’s been known. But what has changed is how much we might care.

Michael Webber (01:27.648)

So 20 years ago, when I studied this for Think Tank doing national security work for the Pentagon, we identified the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as one of the biggest single point risk failures the world could go through in terms of destabilizing global energy markets. But that was before the shale revolution, all these other things that happened 20 years ago. So we were really worried about what this might mean in terms of United States even getting access to the resources in the first place, plus price spikes and everything else. In the 20 years since we did that study for the Pentagon,

Michael Webber (01:54.626)

The Shell Revolution’s come through, so we have a lot more domestic oil and gas production. We’re now exporting instead of importing. We have a lot more wind and solar, so we need less domestic fuels like coal or natural gas in the power sector. The whole situation’s changed where we’ll be exposed to the risks of higher prices, but we have enough supplies. We don’t have worry about absolute supply cutoff. And that’s a good position to be in. I think we should celebrate when we can policy successes. And I would say the last 20 years have been a combination of policy successes.

Michael Webber (02:22.434)

that put us in a better national security position when it comes to disruption to Middle Eastern flows of energy.

Joshua Rhodes (02:29.122)

So Americans are already seeing higher gasoline prices and diesel prices after this escalation. You mentioned that these price spikes can often lag disruption by a week or two, but should consumers expect this to get worse?

Michael Webber (02:41.326)

I expect it to get worse and I also expect the high prices to linger for a while. So there are a couple of things that happen. The disruption happens physically. The prices start to reflect it in the futures market pretty quickly, but at the gasoline pump say a little bit later. So there’s some lag time between physical disruption and higher prices. And then there’s also lag time from when the disruptions are settled and when prices come back down. But sadly, as one of the sort of bitter ironies of life, prices go up a lot faster than they come down for variety of reasons.