Energy Gang Podcast Special: "Energy Addition, Not Energy Transition?" (Recorded at ADIPEC 2025)

Date: November 8, 2025
Location: ADIPEC, Abu Dhabi
Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests/Interviewees: Carol Nakley (Crystal Energy), John Gilley (Kent), Sascha Sisiu (Aerzener), Clay Seigle (CSIS), Bjorn Otto Sverdrup (OGCI)

Episode Overview

This special episode of Energy Gang, recorded live at ADIPEC 2025, explores the shifting global narrative from "energy transition" (replacement of fossil fuels with renewables) to "energy addition"—the idea that renewables, hydrogen, and other low-carbon tech are being added to, rather than replacing, traditional energy sources like oil, gas, and coal.

Host Ed Crooks and a diverse group of industry leaders discuss whether this "addition" framing reflects reality, its implications for decarbonization and climate goals, the role of AI, hydrogen, and nuclear, energy security, and the geopolitics of energy in a changing world.

Key Themes and Insights

1. Energy Addition vs. Energy Transition

• The Framing: Instead of switching entirely to new sources, the world is adding renewables and low-carbon tech on top of persistent fossil fuel usage.
  • "Newer sources of energy, in particular renewables and also other low carbon technologies such as green hydrogen, are being added to the world's established energy sources...rather than replacing them." — Ed Crooks [01:15]
• Why Addition? Economic, political, and technical realities: Demand keeps growing, fossil fuel infrastructure is resilient, and transitions can't be abrupt.
  • "We really need all of the above." — Clay Seigle [00:01, 29:55]
  • "The energy transition is about complementarity, not substitution. It's too early for substitution." — Carol Nakley [00:27, 07:33]

2. AI, Digitalization, and Energy Efficiency

The Hype and the Reality

• AI as 2025's hot topic at ADIPEC, reflecting the energy sector’s drive for efficiency and cost optimization.
  • "Each year you do find a main theme...this year in particular, AI digital technologies..." — Carol Nakley [02:53]
• Concerns about job losses, unknown impact on workforce, and whether AI’s disruption will match past tech revolutions (like horizontal drilling or fracking).
  • "I don't think and I'm not convinced that AI is as disruptive as a technology as, for example, what we saw with the shale revolution." — Carol Nakley [05:13]
• On AI's double-edged demand: While it increases energy use (data centers etc.), it can also support efficiency and grid management.
  • "There's enormous potential for AI to help solve these challenges." — Ed Crooks [22:55]
  • "How can we use this software, this gift, to accelerate us working more efficiently, producing hydrocarbons more efficiently and more responsibly..." — John Gilley [20:38]

3. The Evolving Decarbonization Debate

A Shift in Tone at ADIPEC

• Decarbonization and net zero were less emphasized in discourse, but work continues behind the scenes.
  • "AI is dominating discussion, versus decarbonization being the hot topic of previous years." — Summary of Crooks/Nakley [06:10]
  • "Policy shifts, for example, the geopolitical changes...policy shifts moving away from the rapid push towards decarbonization...to a deceleration." — Carol Nakley [06:39]
• For major oil & gas producers, the aim is now to have "the lowest carbon intensity" rather than to exit oil and gas altogether.
  • "When you look at the Aramcos...the organization and the country that has the lowest carbon footprint, the lowest carbon intensity...they will be the last to leave a shrinking market when that happens."— Carol Nakley [07:33]

4. Hydrogen and Nuclear—From Hype to Reality Check

• Hydrogen was notably "out of fashion" compared to past years, signaling a more sober outlook on its timeline and impact.
  • "Hydrogen was not a big thing this year...the excitement...has faded." — Carol Nakley [09:05, 09:57]
• Nuclear is re-emerging, especially as a focus in the Middle East and the US.
  • "The UAE...their nuclear program has been a big success...there's this massive push, $80 billion plus push into new nuclear construction being backed by the US government." — Ed Crooks [10:40]
  • "Is it the next hydrogen story? I don't know." — Carol Nakley [11:02]

5. Industry Perspectives: "Doers," Not "Delayers"

Company Strategies

• Kent (John Gilley): Now prefers to shape the transition from within, working on both fossil and low-carbon projects; culture reset to focus on tackling climate change.
  • "I prefer to be in the industry doing something about it than being outside driving my Range Rover and saying these companies are destroying the planet." — John Gilley [13:08]
• Aerzener (Sascha Sisiu): Still sees strong mandates and market pull for decarbonizing tech among oil, gas, and heavy industry clients.
  • "The most drive that actually comes from companies...they have their own mandate to push decarbonization forward." — Sascha Sisiu [25:09]
• Companies are innovating with hydrogen compressors, gas recovery, and see decarbonization as a "must now," not a sentiment.
  • "It's an uptrend, actually, it's a must now." — Sascha Sisiu [25:53]

6. Energy Security, Geopolitics, and the US–China Rivalry

• The US is cementing its leverage with LNG exports; policy is shifting to prioritize affordability and security, often over climate concerns.
  • "The US has real geo economic leverage...huge pipeline of liquefaction export projects...backed out Russia from Europe." — Clay Seigle [32:02]
  • "In this White House, there is no trilemma...these guys are laser focused on affordability and energy security." — Clay Seigle [38:58]
• China’s “electro-state” model (rapid industrialization of renewables, EVs) is attractive but will not quickly displace global oil and gas demand.
  • "China is providing another paradigm, another model about how to deploy and employ a similar kind of geo economic leverage." — Clay Seigle [35:55]

7. Climate Initiatives: Methane, Flaring, and Responsible Production

• Industry efforts are zeroing in on methane and flaring reduction—efficiency and climate stewardship are converging.
  • "The main point was...on sustaining the momentum on particularly reducing methane emissions and flaring towards 2030." — Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [41:22]
  • "Methane emissions are flaring, is energy loss and we need to address that...the business case is as solid as ever." — Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [42:11]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On “energy addition” reality:

  "We really need all of the above. The transition will happen when it's economically viable. No greater example than solar...when they become viable, it just happens." — Clay Seigle [00:01, 16:56]

• On AI and real disruption:

  "I don't think...AI is as disruptive...as the shale revolution." — Carol Nakley [05:13]

• On the new climate narrative:

  "Definitely a deceleration...not ditching net zero, but rebalancing." — Carol Nakley [06:39]

• On the danger of moving too fast:

  "Getting off [hydrocarbons] as quickly as we can is probably not the right statement. Getting off them in a controlled manner over decades is the way to go...If you rush into, it'll cause massive economic problems." — John Gilley [15:20]

• On company purpose:

  "We want to be known as a company that is courageously tackling the greatest challenge of our time. And the greatest challenge is climate change." — John Gilley [13:08]

• On US energy policy priorities in 2025:

  "In this White House, there is no trilemma...these guys are laser focused on affordability, and energy security is a means to the end of affordability." — Clay Seigle [38:58]

• On persistent oil & gas:

  "Oil and gas is by far not...sinking. It's an uptrend, actually, it's, it grows." — Sascha Sisiu [29:12]

• On the industry's decarbonization resolve:

  "I think the message from the CEOs...was very clear. We are staying the course on this." — Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [42:11]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro & Framing the "Addition, Not Transition" Debate: [00:01-01:15]
• Carol Nakley – AI, Policy Shifts, Future Themes: [02:53–11:35]
• John Gilley – Corporate Climate Purpose, Transition Realism, AI at Kent: [11:55–24:49]
• Sascha Sisiu – Decarbonization Mandate from Companies, Product Innovation: [25:09–29:40]
• Clay Seigle – US/China, Energy Security, Politicization: [29:55–41:03]
• Bjorn Otto Sverdrup – Methane, Flaring, COP30 Preview: [41:22–44:26]

Conclusion

This episode captures a moment of recalibration in the global energy debate: While the political and public rhetoric around rapid decarbonization has softened or stalled in many arenas, momentum for change—driven by economics, technology, and industry action—continues under the surface. “Energy addition, not energy transition” may best reflect energy realism in 2025. The future will be about pragmatic progress, efficiency upgrades, and sector-by-sector advances, even as the world grapples with deep uncertainties—about AI, technology disruption, and the pace of climate action.

Next episode: Insights from COP30 in Brazil—the global climate conversation continues.