Energy Gang — Episode Summary

Episode Title: The COP30 climate talks are under way in Brazil. What is the point of the conference?
Date: November 13, 2025
Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests:

• Amy Myers Jaffe (Director, NYU’s Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab)
• Amy Harder (National Energy Correspondent, Axios)
• Lisa Jacobson (President, Business Council for Sustainable Energy)
• [Key: A - Ed Crooks, B - Lisa Jacobson, C - Amy Myers Jaffe, D - Amy Harder]

Main Theme and Purpose

The episode analyzes the role and expectations of COP30, the 2025 UN Climate Conference held in Belem, Brazil. The panel examines what meaningful progress looks like at this year’s COP, explores the challenges around global climate policy and finance, addresses evolving US domestic policy, and discusses the broader momentum of the global energy transition. Special focus is given to the implications for business, policy implementation, and practical climate action, particularly in the context of Brazil’s unique role as host.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Evolving Role of COP Conferences

• Incremental Progress, Not Always Headlines:

  • Current mood is that COP30 may lack the “drama” or “big agreements” of COP21 (Paris) or COP28 (Dubai), but such “workhorse” COPs are still vital for incremental action.
  • “Just because it’s a trough from an intention or attendance perspective doesn’t mean it’s not productive from what COPs are actually meant to do, which is make progress on the Paris climate agreement and more.” — Amy Harder [09:12]

• Implementation vs. Ambition:

  • “Implementation COP” is a common descriptor, emphasizing practical steps over new international declarations.
  • “The word ‘implementation’ doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but it is the case that this is more of a workhorse type COP, and that’s what that reflects.” — Amy Harder [28:00]

2. Business and Subnational Leadership

• US Presence in Brazil:
  • Lisa Jacobson describes high-level US business and subnational participation, emphasizing clean energy's role in economic competitiveness, cost, and security.
  • “The message [from US Governors and mayors in Rio] was clear there that we’re just moving on… so many reasons to take advantage of clean energy and energy efficiency technologies... for cost effectiveness, affordability, energy security, and jobs.” — Lisa Jacobson [04:51]

3. Private Sector and Technological Momentum

• Shift From Policy-Driven to Market-Driven Change:

  • While policies, especially subsidies and climate commitments, drove progress over the last decade, many clean technologies are now economically competitive and capable of moving forward on market terms.
  • “We’re starting to see technologies where that technology is a better solution. That might be because countries aren’t trusting the global LNG market… or because renewables are just easier and cheaper to install.” — Amy Myers Jaffe [19:16]

• Business Commitment and Resilience:

  • Despite US political headwinds, especially with pending rollback of climate-friendly legislation, corporate actors and many states are continuing transition efforts.
  • “Businesses and many countries as well as international institutions… risk manage in their own mind for four-year transitions… but we are looking at decades-long transitions.” — Lisa Jacobson [11:51]

4. Policy Gaps, NDCs, and the Paris Agreement’s Future

• Global Ambition Lags Behind Need:

  • Recent Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) still put the world on track for 2.2–2.5°C warming.
  • “If you look at the commitments… you get to maybe a trajectory that gets us to 2.3 degrees of global warming. It still means that the Paris Agreement is out of touch.” — Ed Crooks [15:44]

• Is the Paris Agreement Enough?

  • Panelists agree it’s too early (and risky) to “move beyond” Paris, advocating for its flexibility amid changing realities, and reminding that global transformation takes time.
  • “It is not going to be linear… I think we performed very well in really hard-to-move sectors… It’s only been 10 years. That’s not a long time in these industries.” — Lisa Jacobson [36:45]

• Goal-Setting and Human Welfare:

  • Reference to Bill Gates’ COP memo: shift metrics toward human welfare and technological readiness rather than just emissions alone.
  • “Orient the metrics around human welfare... focus more on the readiness of technologies.”—Amy Harder, referencing Gates [38:52]

5. The "Who Pays?" Challenge

• Climate Finance Is Stuck:

  • The fundamental political and logistical barrier remains: who pays for climate adaptation and mitigation, particularly in lower-income countries?
  • “This question of who pays is still a giant barrier and the way climate finance works... where the opportunity problem comes is that, you know, a 1% tax on all first class airline travel or… shippers would pay some kind of a tax… you would use that to actually pay for some of the money that needs to go into low income countries and low-lying island countries.” — Amy Myers Jaffe [42:00]

• Disconnect Between Pledges & Reality:

  • Panelists note that much-hyped mechanisms often don’t translate into actual support, especially for adaptation, agriculture, and energy access.

6. Brazil’s Role & Sectoral Initiatives at COP30

• Land Use and Sustainable Fuels:

  • This COP is seeing a renewed focus on land use, agriculture, and a push—led by Brazil—for a global commitment to quadruple sustainable fuels production.
  • “Land management, agricultural sector focus, industrial processes—these things really will make a big difference. And then, you know, on sustainable fuels… now we have this commitment... If we just got half of them moving in the next five years… that is what we want to see.” — Lisa Jacobson [30:42]

• China’s Emissions Turning Point:

  • China’s Q1 2025 greenhouse gas emissions saw their first quarterly decline—an inflection due to policies and economic conditions.
  • “People do think that their emissions will permanently peak sometime this decade as the Chinese have targeted.” — Amy Myers Jaffe [14:36]

• Optimism Despite Bumps:

  • The group agrees that progress, though uneven, is real and structural change is underway.
  • “You can make pronouncements. NDCs are important to show the direction of travel… but it’s action on the ground that matters.” — Lisa Jacobson [32:20]

7. The Value and Limits of the COP Process

• Process Matters:

  • Gathering diverse stakeholders and building relationships leads to insights and bottom-up change, even if little appears to happen at the top.
  • “Just the simple act of getting the world together to think about climate change and to think about what should be done about it is actually valuable in itself.” — Ed Crooks [33:22]

• Direction of Travel Is Hard to Kill:

  • Despite attempts by various interests to block stronger action, the “direction of travel” towards decarbonization is deeply embedded.
  • “If COP 30 shows that it’s too hard to kill the direction of travel… that’d be a big accomplishment, I think, under the circumstances of a world that’s had wars and energy security challenges.” — Amy Myers Jaffe [35:07]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Practical vs. Rhetorical Progress:
  “Too much time was spent in Dubai on whether we were going to say we’re abandoning fossil fuels… when the substance of whether people were really going to do it or not was not tied to having four words or ten words in a communique.” — Amy Myers Jaffe [34:28]

• On Market Momentum:
  “We’re starting to see some element where the business case might drive things forward and not have to be always driven by some top down measure.” — Amy Myers Jaffe [19:16]

• On Clean Tech Resilience:
  “Technologies like EVs, wind and solar, are more mature and are moving forward despite the rollbacks… the more commercial ones will continue to move forward.” — Amy Harder [20:09]

• On Climate Finance Gaps:
  “There’s a big disconnect… countries really need money to salvage agriculture and to handle water, and a lot of the money doesn’t go to that.” — Amy Myers Jaffe [44:20]

• On COP’s Value:
  “Just bringing people together to focus on different parts of the world and what can be done… is healthy and important. Especially in a fragmented world, this coming together is extremely important.” — Lisa Jacobson [33:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [04:51] — Lisa Jacobson on the US business delegation and subnational leadership at COP30
• [06:40] — Amy Myers Jaffe on the diplomatic legacy and shifts since earlier COPs
• [09:21] — Amy Harder on COP cycles and the importance of “workhorse” years
• [11:51] — Lisa Jacobson on success metrics: private sector focus, long timelines, industrial decarbonization
• [14:36] — Amy Myers Jaffe on China’s emissions progress
• [15:44] — Ed Crooks highlights that current pledges still put Paris goals out of immediate reach
• [19:16] — Amy Myers Jaffe argues that tech and security are driving the transition, not just policy
• [22:50] — Lisa Jacobson on the US grid, renewables and market posture
• [28:00] — Amy Harder critiques the “Implementation COP” naming, sees value in practical progress
• [30:42] — Lisa Jacobson on land management, sustainable fuels, and focusing on actionable progress
• [35:07] — Amy Myers Jaffe on the unlikelihood of reversing the transition’s direction
• [36:45] — Lisa Jacobson: Paris is enough; the world needs time and optimism
• [42:00] — Amy Myers Jaffe digs into the persistent “who pays?” problem of global climate finance
• [46:34] — Lisa Jacobson and Amy Myers Jaffe on Brazil’s sustainable fuels pledge

Conclusion & Takeaways

COP30 may not deliver flashy international treaties, but the discussion demonstrates that meaningful work—on technologies, market shifts, land/sectoral initiatives, and finance—continues. The COP process is valuable as a forum for global convergence, idea sharing, and reinforcing the collective “direction of travel” toward decarbonization, even as hard questions about finance and ambition remain unresolved.

The panel’s tone is thoughtful, pragmatic, often optimistic about energy and climate progress, but realistic about the political and economic barriers still in play. The episode is essential listening for those wanting an on-the-ground sense of what global climate diplomacy looks like in a period less focused on headlines and more on implementation.