Energy Gang: The Year in Energy Review (December 23, 2024)

Overview

In this end-of-year episode, host Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie) is joined by regulars Melissa Lott (Microsoft, Energy Technologies) and Amy Myers Jaffe (NYU, Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab) to look back—and critically reflect—on 2024’s major trends, moments, and predictions in the energy transition. They revisit their own forecasts from January, discuss their personal highs and lows, highlight favorite episodes, and share rich anecdotes and insights along the way.

2024 Predictions: What Did & Didn’t Happen

BYD, EVs & Global Market Shifts

• Ed’s Prediction: Wang Chuanfu of BYD as 2024’s person to watch, with Chinese EVs set to take a major share of the European market.
  • Ed: “They had a fantastic year. It looks quite likely that they will have sold something like 4.25 million cars in 2024. It's quite possible they will have sold more this year than Ford or than Honda. They sell something like 1 in 3 of all the EVs in China.” (03:32)
• Amy: Reminds listeners she and her students had pointed to BYD’s rise last year.
  • Mentions growing markets to watch in India (e.g., Ola, Tata Motors) for future EV growth. (04:21)
• Melissa: Reflects on her own EV purchase journey, noting rapid growth in consumer options and infrastructure—even in cold, challenging markets.
  • Melissa: “The progress has been really real...I was excited by how many options were out there...including around our unique set of circumstances.” (05:27)

Hydrogen: Momentum or Stagnation?

• Amy’s Prediction: “2024 might be the year, the actual year, of hydrogen, and that it's not hype.” (07:20, from January)
  • Amy admits the year was a “mixed draw”: Federal tax credits lagged and political uncertainty loomed.
  • Amy: Highlights surprising developments: security-driven demand for hydrogen in undersea and aerial drones (protecting Baltic undersea cables from Russian threats) and ongoing momentum in California’s hydrogen trucking hubs.
  • Still, setbacks abound: Hyvia (Renault/Plug Power JV) near bankruptcy, plug power’s 90%+ stock fall, Fortescue’s wavering ambitions, Universal Hydrogen’s collapse, and more. (10:12)
  • Amy: “I'm not going to say it's 100% wrong prediction, but I still think there's momentum, but maybe it's still early.” (11:38)
• Ed: “Maybe we'll call this one a draw, but I don't feel like it's been a great year for hydrogen.” (11:58)
• Panel: Broader agreement hydrogen for light vehicles remains unlikely, but consensus is growing around hydrogen’s harder-to-abate industrial/military roles and in natural hydrogen (geologic deposits) entering common discourse.

Enhanced Geothermal: Quiet Acceleration

• Melissa’s Prediction: Momentum for enhanced geothermal as a “firm dispatchable power” breakthrough.
  • Melissa: “We saw some big milestones happen. So I think Fervo took top of the headlines at least. But we saw progress across a bunch of different companies and some of the big permitting issues for the new facility in Utah…got sorted out this year.” (17:10)
  • Amy: Notes possible political tailwinds, with pro-geothermal leadership at DOE if a new administration comes in (19:07).
  • Panel: Oil & gas firms more interested in natural hydrogen; geothermal for buildings (HVAC systems) emerging as a trend, especially for real estate/LEED.

Personal Highs and Lows of 2024

Lows: Geopolitical & Process Setbacks

• COP29 Failure
  • Melissa: “COP was a low for me...the more we talk about it, the more...after this holiday, need to regroup, refill cups, and then see how we can run up to the next COP.” (24:29)
  • Ed: “Just really the failure to agree. A big number for climate finance flows from rich countries to poorer countries. It calls into question...the UNFCCC process and where that goes from here.” (25:11)
  • Amy: Draws parallel to the failed UN global plastics treaty talks, noting industrialized world’s waste impacts on the Global South. (26:58)
• Amy’s Additional Low: Geopolitics—a rough year with Venezuelan elections stalling democratic hopes and persistent Middle East conflict. (28:37)

Highs: Infrastructure, Tech, and Diffusion

• Auto “Supercharging” Breakthroughs
  • Melissa: “One of my highs is how many announcements were made and made into reality for major auto manufacturers about putting their cars on the broader supercharging network in this country…It’s decreasing those hurdles.” (30:17)
• AI, Electricity, & National Security Awareness
  • Amy: Praises “all the progress...in AI, but with a caveat where all of a sudden people woke up: ‘This is a national security issue. We have to have the electricity…’ It doesn't matter who wins the election. I can give the same talks…because I'm going to tell you something on US national security and energy and AI that is going to be true no matter who is president.” (31:21)
  • Melissa: “We are transitioning to a new era...Too many different trends came together this year and brought awareness to this topic...” (32:45)
• Ed: Turns optimism global: surges in solar (Pakistan, now “third largest solar market in the world”), battery storage (Saudi Arabia), and low-carbon investments in less expected markets.
  • Ed: “A lot of that is very exciting, I think.” (34:19)
• Amy: Reiterates national security as a driver for clean tech, especially post-Ukraine.

2024 in Context: Key Transitions & Big Insights

Tech Ecosystems, Integration & Utility

• Melissa: Cites her family’s obsession with RV charging and the juxtaposition of electric and hydrogen fueling at a single Pilot/Flying J in New Mexico.
  • “This is the epicenter of energy futures and transitions, I think, where I'm sitting right now.” (15:44)
  • “None of these technologies can work in isolation. They all have to be part of an ecosystem 100% to have the engines. You need the filling stations.” — Ed (16:44)
• Panel: Enhanced geothermal leverages drilling skills from oil & gas (“not from zero”) but is a different business logic than natural hydrogen.

Market Maturity & Election Resilience

• Melissa: The energy transition “is not the same conversation we have...just a couple of election cycles ago, it's a very different place we're in and we're seeing that play out around the world. And those elections matter. They influence how this will all develop. No doubt, but not in the same way..." (39:46)

Favorite 2024 Energy Gang Episodes

Amy’s Pick:

• “Is There an Energy Transition?” (April)
  • Data-driven discussion on investment flows: Oil majors invested $56.6B; leading climate venture funds invested $90.6B.
  • Warning: Cleantech investment is pro-cyclical, at risk if policies cool or oil prices fall. (41:15; 44:38)
  • Ed: “That show actually changed my mind...even if the transition is slow...it still makes sense to think about us being on a journey towards a lower carbon energy system.” (45:39)

Melissa’s Picks:

• Book Club w/ Joseph Mashkit (CSIS) & Brett Christophers (“The Price Is Wrong”): “Thought provoking and engaging and I really learned a lot from it. Fundamentally important discussion.” (45:44)
• Recent episodes on AI’s impact on the grid (with Bryan Janis) and on transformers.

Ed’s Pick:

• NYU Climate Week/Entrepreneurship Panel: Featuring Marisa Beatty (Turnover Labs) & Apol Sinner (Carbon Upcycling), on transforming CO₂ waste into practical products. Ed found this session “inspiring to see people...turning ideas into businesses” and commends the students’ high-level engagement. (47:07)
  • Also highlights the deeper discussions with Google’s Carolyn Golan and Kate Gordon on AI and electricity (48:43).

Notable Quotes

• Melissa Lott: “I am optimistic…But I will say, you know, and I talked about this on the show, I just had to buy another vehicle again and so I got to touch the entire electric and plug in hybrid and internal combustion engine space really personally again…” (05:27)
• Amy Myers Jaffe: “There's this new class of drones that's required now for security...and when you run them with a battery, it's very inefficient...people are experimenting...with hydrogen.” (08:58)
• Ed Crooks: “Just really the failure to agree a big number for climate finance flows from rich countries to poorer countries…calls into question a lot of what's happening now in the UNFCCC process.” (25:11)
• Melissa Lott: “When I bought my Tesla…one of the big reasons I did it…the robust network for moving around the country...Now with my new plug in hybrid...I have access to the supercharging network.” (30:17)
• Amy Myers Jaffe: “All the progress…in AI, but with a caveat where all of a sudden people woke up, ding. This is a national security issue.…” (31:21)
• Ed Crooks: “It's the spread of low carbon energy technologies around the world in a lot of markets where you might not necessarily have expected them to be growing...Pakistan...Saudi Arabia, absolutely booming as a market for battery storage.” (34:19)
• Amy Myers Jaffe: “One of the big warning bells, though, from that study...is that it's been pro cyclical...if the Trump administration is not going to be oriented toward ∗having that kind of stimulus, it could be a bad signal for staying the course on all this money that's been going into cleantech.” (44:38)

Holiday “Gifts” Segment (Lighthearted Finale)

• Panelists “gift” each other books, tech gadgets, and streaming recommendations, e.g.:
  • Ed to Amy: Portable solar EV charger (“...a way to reassure yourself you’ve got the solar panels there...” 52:05)
  • Amy to Ed: Paramount+ and recommendation for “Landman” (Taylor Sheridan’s oil drama) and the “Boomtown” podcast (57:03)
  • Amy to Melissa: Netflix to watch Martha Stewart documentary (“...how she reinvents herself and how resilient she is...”) (58:52)
  • Melissa to all: “Let’s all rediscover classics like ‘Power Trip’...and try Michael Sandel’s ‘The Tyranny of Merit’ as well.” (55:17)

Conclusion

The core message: While geopolitics and global climate diplomacy faltered, the panel sees strong progress in the market and tech foundations for the energy transition—be it through vehicle electrification, energy storage, policy-wonky geothermal wins, or grid investment driven by AI and national security. The transition’s pace is uneven, but it is clearly under way, with surprises and setbacks both at center stage and behind the scenes.

Final sentiment: “We are in a fundamentally different place...This is not the same conversation we had just a couple of election cycles ago.” (39:46 — Melissa)

For further context, review the discussed episodes from April (“Is There an Energy Transition?”), the September NYU Climate Week panels, and book club episodes noted above.

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment/Theme | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------|------------| | Episode Introduction | 00:00 | | 2024 Predictions—BYD, EVs | 03:32 | | Hydrogen: Hype vs. Reality | 07:20-11:58| | Enhanced Geothermal | 17:10 | | Geopolitics and COP29—Lows | 24:29-30:08| | Highs: EV infrastructure, AI/electricity | 30:17-34:19| | Cleantech Investment Cycles | 41:15-44:38| | Favorite Episodes of the Year | 41:15-48:43| | Holiday “Gifts” Exchange | 49:35-58:52|

For a deeper dive, listen to referenced episodes and book recommendations included throughout the summary.