Energy Gang — "Venezuela and What to Expect from Energy in 2026"

Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests: Amy Myers Jaffe (NYU), Melissa Lott (Microsoft, personal capacity)
Date: January 8, 2026

Overview

In the first Energy Gang episode of 2026, the team (Ed Crooks, Amy Myers Jaffe, and Melissa Lott) unpacks major developments in global energy, with a deep dive into the immediate fallout and broader implications of the dramatic events in Venezuela, energy policy shifts in the US, the accelerating LNG boom, and critical energy and technology trends for 2026. The conversation weaves analysis of geopolitics, clean tech, finance, infrastructure, and grid modernization, all with the Energy Gang's signature mix of expertise, banter, and candid debate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela Crisis and its Energy Fallout

[05:04 – 16:59]

• Event Recap: The recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the US is top-of-mind, with charges related to drugs trafficking—and oil considered a core factor behind US actions.

• Historical Parallel: Amy reflects on lessons from Iraq’s oil sector post-2003, contrasting Iraq's recoverable infrastructure against Venezuela’s deep, systemic damage (from looting, mismanagement, and depopulation of technical expertise).

  • Quote (Amy Myers Jaffe, 08:55): “Venezuela has a very complex set of problems that, in my opinion, are deeper than the problems that people faced in Iraq…there were some fields I hear that were so depressurized, it’s unclear whether they can be repaired or not.”

• Short/Medium/Long-term View: Melissa divides the crisis into:

  • Near-term (0-6 months): Geopolitics, humanitarian struggles, immediate price shocks.
  • Medium-term (1-3 years): Disruption and reinvestment in supply chains and field equipment, both in and beyond Venezuela.
  • Long-term (3-10 years): Lasting implications for infrastructure, the energy transition, and markets globally.
  • Quote (Melissa Lott, 10:00): "I'm thinking about it in three buckets mostly around time…geopolitics, humanitarian concerns...and prices. What is this going to do to markets?"

• US Strategic Interests: Ed and Amy debate whether US intervention is motivated by energy security—drawing a cautious analogy to the Bush-era rationale on Iraq vs. today’s shale-powered US:

  • Quote (Ed Crooks, 13:00): “Is it the case that despite being an oil superpower now, the US still has an interest in encouraging increased production from other parts of the world, and…Venezuela?”
  • Amy details overlooked military brinkmanship between Venezuela and Guyana (with Russian involvement) and its energy ramifications—revealing high-level energy/geopolitical stakes rarely publicized.

2. US LNG Boom & the Shifting Global Gas Landscape

[17:00 – 23:05]

• Gulf Coast Mega-Build: Ed spotlights the rapid expansion of US LNG export capacity—set to triple between 2023 and 2035—raising big questions about oversupply, price pressures, and global market volatility.
  • Quote (Ed Crooks, 18:34): "There's a huge investment boom going on...adding massively to US gas export capacity."
• Geopolitical Variables: Amy and Melissa speculate how an end to the Ukraine war could flood world markets with Russian gas, worsening oversupply and affecting the competitiveness of solar and other renewables.
  • Quote (Amy Myers Jaffe, 19:23): "If we could hope that we would see an end to the Ukraine war...that would unleash more investment potentially in Russian gas…and make the oversupply situation in natural gas 10 times worse."
• Consumer Impact—Market Integration: The US’s traditional “gas island” status is ending; global price arbitrage will squeeze the price gap between the US and Europe for consumers.
  • Quote (Melissa Lott, 19:00): “These are going to be very diverse impacts, I think it is fair to say…very curious how that's all going to play out…”

3. People to Watch in Energy (2026)

[24:10 – 31:42]

• Melissa’s Pick: Chris Wright (DOE) — chosen for his leadership in navigating US clean tech investment, supply chain development, and the intersection of energy and national security.
  • Quote (Melissa Lott, 25:15): “At the heart this last year at so many conversations…on how we invest in clean tech, how we think about LNG, and oil in different countries…”
• Ed’s Pick: Laura Sweat (Chair, FERC) — for her critical role in reforming grid interconnection policy, especially to meet data-driven power demand by AI/data centers, and for balancing federal/state regulatory tug-of-war.
  • Quote (Ed Crooks, 26:55): “This is going to create a whole new set of challenges for regulators…probably FERC, the federal regulator, in particular.”
• Amy’s Pick: Xi Jinping (China) — as 2026 marks the introduction of China's next Five Year Plan, with huge ramifications for AI leadership, cleantech rivalry, and global energy strategy. She notes contrasting US/Chinese AI strategies: US focuses on scaling, China on architectural innovation and open-source.
  • Quote (Amy Myers Jaffe, 28:52): “What’s going to be very significant…this is the year that China does its next five year plan. And that is going to be something to watch.”

4. Technologies to Track in 2026

[31:42 – 40:39]

• Melissa: Energy Storage*— both the commercialization of new chemistries and "onshoring"/deepening of global supply chains.
  • Quote (Melissa Lott, 32:09): “I’m looking across energy storage technologies...where are we seeing different technologies get off the learning bench and go into commercialization?”
• Ed: Iron-Air Batteries (Form Energy)—as the Cambridge, MN, project comes online, he ponders the fit of 100-hour batteries between daily and “dunkelflaute” (multi-week low-renewable wind/solar) scenarios, and the obstacles in scaling.
  • Quote (Ed Crooks, 33:44): “100 hours is quite odd as a duration…kind of too long for just time shifting...too short for the Dunkelflaute…so we’re going to learn about exactly how these systems perform, where the market for them is going to be.”
• Amy: Humanoid Robots—driven by AI advances, with Hyundai and Chinese firms racing to deploy robots in manufacturing; sees dramatic potential but cautions on cost, dexterity, and use-case fit.
  • Quote (Amy Myers Jaffe, 37:59): “For those of you...I got a beautiful Roomba…that did not work. So I’m not surprised they went bankrupt…But that said, you have a lot of money going into robotics...maybe it’s come to its time.”

5. Memorable Exchanges & Quotes

• On Mid-episode Tech-Nerd Out:
  • Melissa Lott, 42:48: “For those who have not read any of Isaac Asimov’s Caves of Steel, iRobot...there’s one called The Naked Sun...I’m gonna go reread this book this weekend!”
• On Technology as a Non-Silver Bullet:
  • Melissa Lott, 36:50: “When stuff goes wrong, I want lots of tools in my toolbox…it’s not ‘we need one solution.’ We need lots of stuff in lots of places.”
• LNG Analogy:
  • Ed Crooks, 23:17: “A Chinese gas company exec said: the difference between pipeline gas and LNG is like the difference between tap water and bottled water...if you can get the tap water, that's what you should have!”

6. Free Electron Segment (Energy Tidbits)

[44:35 – 49:16]

• Amy: Reflections on recent San Francisco blackout — AVs (autonomous vehicles) froze, exposing resilience gaps in both tech and grid.
  • Quote (Amy Myers Jaffe, 44:35): "The blackout in San Francisco really shocked everyone...the AVs stopped dead.”
• Melissa: Shout-out to Intersect Power (tagline: "Less Talk, More Steel")—Texas-based developer of large-scale renewables-plus-storage, just acquired by Google.
  • Quote (Melissa Lott, 46:07): “Whoever did marketing for this company—'Less Talk, More Steel’—I like you…It’s like practical pathways forward.”
• Ed: Podcast plug for Wood Mackenzie’s sibling show “The Interchange Recharged,” highlighting upcoming cross-podcast episodes.

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Venezuela Deep Dive: 05:04–16:59
• US LNG/Gas Export Boom: 17:00–23:05
• People to Watch in 2026: 24:10–31:42
• Technology Focus for 2026: 31:42–40:39
• Robotics, Energy Storage & AI: 37:59–44:03
• Free Electron/Energy News Nuggets: 44:35–49:16

Conclusion

With the year off to a turbulent start, this episode captures both the unforeseen shocks and enduring structural questions facing the global energy sector. From the implications of regime change in Venezuela, to the evolving shape of energy policy, storage technology, and power grid resilience, the Energy Gang underscores the complexity and dynamism of the years ahead. Their analysis is pragmatic, candid, and laced with both cautious optimism and realism—a must-listen for anyone invested in the future of clean energy.

Key Takeaway: 2026 will be a year where geopolitics, regulatory reform, technological leaps, and old-fashioned supply/demand will test the resilience, adaptability, and vision of the entire energy ecosystem.

For further details and past/current episodes, visit Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Gang feed.