Energy Gang Podcast Summary

Episode: What can we expect from energy in 2025? The people, places and technologies to watch this year
Date: January 8, 2025
Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests: Amy Myers Jaffe (NYU), Dr. Melissa Lott (Microsoft)

Overview & Main Theme

This episode rings in 2025 by forecasting key trends, places, people, and technologies shaping the energy sector in the coming year. The hosts dive into anticipated shifts in U.S. policy post-election, clean technology trajectories—including hydrogen, solar, wind, and quantum computing—and discuss the impact of political transitions, market forces, and innovation on the global energy transition. The discussion is candid, sometimes speculative, and always rooted in the fast-evolving landscape of policy, finance, and technology.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Places to Watch in 2025

Washington, D.C.: Center of Change (02:02–16:45)

• Political transition is pivotal: The new U.S. administration—implied to be Trump’s—signals an energy policy shift toward fossil fuels and price reduction, away from climate-centric regulation.
• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) uncertainty:
  • Implementation details and outstanding regulatory issues could impede investment.
  • Permitting reform failed to pass in 2024, leaving project deployment dependent on future legislative changes.
  • Depending on political priorities, streamlined permitting may or may not gain momentum, affecting IRA’s efficacy.
• Hydrogen rules update: Final hydrogen tax credit rules, out just before the administration change, are less restrictive than draft versions but raise complex life-cycle analysis issues (04:41–09:55).
  • “The more complicated you make the rule, the more different hurdles people have to go through.” — Amy Myers Jaffe (07:31)
• Uncertainties abound: Both policy reversals and slowdowns are expected, particularly for clean tech investment.

California: The Legal & Innovation Frontline (16:46–20:20)

• Gavin Newsom and the lawsuit strategy:
  • California readies for federal confrontation, budgeting millions to defend state-level clean policies (16:49–18:50).
  • California is committed to hydrogen, a 2035 ban on new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, and an aggressive renewables roadmap.
  • The state is positioned to delay or block unfavorable federal policies through legal action.

Other Jurisdictions & International Hotspots (20:18–21:49)

• States to watch: Multiple U.S. states are potential bellwethers, each with IRA-driven investments in recycling, EVs, and manufacturing.
• Europe and global markets: Continued focus on energy security, especially regarding nuclear and response to geopolitical shocks.

2. People to Watch

The Incoming U.S. Energy Team (21:49–26:36)

• Cabinet picks matter:
  • Trump’s likely Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, and Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, bring deep industry experience.
  • Focus may be on infrastructure and fossil fuel deployment, but both have broader energy backgrounds—Burgum, for instance, is a geothermal investor.
• Key question: Will “energy” mean “natural gas” or a broader portfolio?
• Federal-state tensions: How will they navigate IRA investments and competing state interests?

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber (32:17–32:30)

• ADNOC (UAE) as a global actor: The oil giant’s move to spin out a major lower-carbon energy company emblematizes the transformation of state-owned fossil companies. Their strategies in 2025 will have global resonance.

3. Technologies to Watch

Solar Power – At a Turning Point? (32:30–39:09)

• Solar’s decade-long boom: From 45 GW in 2014 to 500 GW in 2024—a tenfold increase.
• Possible 2025 slowdown: Policy headwinds in the U.S. and China (new Chinese quality standards, crackdown on overcapacity) may end the multi-year streak of annual record growth.
• Caveats:
  • Stockpiling could buffer impact.
  • Quality upgrades in Chinese supply could have long-term positive impacts.
  • Storage and pricing reforms (negative midday prices) now critically linked to solar’s ongoing deployment.
  • “If you think that’s going to stop... you’re really making an assessment about whether you think storage is going to have continued gains in terms of its cost effectiveness.” — Amy Myers Jaffe (35:06)

Wind Power & Long Duration Energy Storage (39:13–43:40)

• Wind at a crossroads: Offshore wind faces logistics challenges. Innovations like aerial turbine blade transport (Radio) are being tested.
  • “Are we going to have some breakthroughs when it comes to getting these really huge technologies on the system?” — Melissa Lott (40:33)
• Long-duration storage takes center stage: Solutions for grid stability beyond 100 hours, including Form Energy’s iron-air battery pilot in Minnesota, could be transformative.

Quantum Computing & AI (45:20–50:19)

• Emerging enablers of innovation: Quantum computing could fast-track breakthroughs across materials science, fusion energy modeling, and operational optimization.
• Power demands debated: Quantum’s environmental footprint is uncertain. Will its speed offset energy-intensive cooling requirements?
  • “These are tools that will accelerate discoveries... can be implemented so much quicker. I’m really watching that.” — Melissa Lott (48:40)
• AI applications: Already optimizing maintenance and system efficiency across generation and grid platforms.

4. Wild Cards & Unpredictable Risks (53:42–63:30)

• Oil price collapse: Downward volatility is a rare but plausible scenario given shifting geopolitics (53:42).

• Autonomous vehicles: Rapid progress but safety, trust, and technical hiccups remain. Could transform transportation emissions if scalability and reliability are achieved.

• Pandemics & Disasters: New pandemics (e.g., avian flu) and extreme climate events (Puerto Rico blackout) could upend market stability, demand, and emergency response priorities (56:45–61:38).

  • “I hope my wild card stays in the deck for a long time.” — Melissa Lott (62:16)

• Infrastructure resilience: Investments in distributed energy (e.g., solar+storage in Puerto Rico) and disaster-proofing are demonstrating real-world value when shocks hit.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You can’t say climate change anymore. We’re not doing decarbonization. We’re talking about hydrogen as a matter of national security.” — Amy Myers Jaffe (11:53)
• “The entire tech industry is shifting to what I call the national security moniker.” — Amy Myers Jaffe (11:53)
• “I’m watching where’s the heartbeat of energy transitions going to be within the new administration? Because how strong that is beating, how strong that is moving will affect so many things...” — Melissa Lott (22:00)
• “ADNOC is right in the forefront of those NOCs that are kind of forward thinking, changing themselves in interesting and significant ways.” — Ed Crooks (32:17)
• “I have this feeling like we’re at an inflection point of some type. And I am curious enough that I’m watching it.” — Melissa Lott, on wind power (43:04)
• “These are tools that will accelerate discoveries quite a bit.” — Melissa Lott, on quantum/AI (48:40)
• “If Quantum gets us to be able to be Star Trek-y and we can be beamed from one place to another... think of the jet fuel we’d save.” — Amy Myers Jaffe (53:05)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic/Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------------|--------------| | New US Congress & Energy Policy Preview | 02:02–04:41 | | Hydrogen Tax Credit Rules Update | 04:41–11:16 | | Capital/Investment Outlook under Administration | 09:55–11:16 | | National Security Framing for Hydrogen | 11:53–15:46 | | California’s Legal Battle Plan | 16:46–18:58 | | US States & International Perspectives | 20:18–21:49 | | Cabinet Picks: Chris Wright & Doug Burgum | 21:58–26:36 | | ADNOC & NOC Transition Global Impact | 32:17–32:30 | | Solar Outlook: Potential Slowdown | 32:30–39:09 | | Wind & Long Duration Energy Storage | 39:13–43:40 | | Quantum Computing in Energy | 45:20–50:19 | | Wild Cards: Oil, AVs, Disasters, Pandemic Risk | 53:42–62:16 |

Tone & Closing Remarks

The conversation is open, analytical, and sometimes playful—especially around “bets” on hydrogen’s progress and the hope for Star Trek–style breakthroughs. While the hosts express cautions about political headwinds and system shocks, there is a strong current of optimism for technological innovation and community resilience.

“There are lots of things that can be done to improve resilience in the face of those risks... we want to be solutions focused.” — Ed Crooks (61:38)

If you missed this episode, you’ll come away with a rich sense of the tough policy crossroads, innovation hotspots, and big bets that will define energy in 2025—plus which breakthroughs, setbacks, or surprises are most likely to hit the headlines next.