Energy Gang Podcast Summary

Episode Title: What do China’s climate commitments mean for energy?
Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests: Amy Myers Jaffe (NYU), David Sandalow (Columbia University), Joe Webster (Atlantic Council)
Date: September 26, 2025

Episode Overview

This live episode, recorded at an NYU graduate class, dives into China's climate commitments and their impacts on global energy transition. The panel discusses expectations for China’s new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the extraordinary scale of China’s clean energy build-out, the interplay between industrial strategy, national security, and technological leadership in clean energy and AI, and the global ripple effects of Chinese policy and manufacturing dominance. The breaking news of China’s official NDC release during the show gives the conversation added urgency and relevance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: China’s Central Role in Climate and Energy

[02:52 – 05:12]

• China is critical for climate action: As David Sandalow notes, “China is the number one greenhouse gas emitter in the world, more than 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. There's no solution to the climate change issue without China.”
• Panel’s expertise: Panelists bring backgrounds in energy, policy, China studies, and national security.

2. Anticipating China’s New Climate Commitments

[05:12 – 08:03]

• Global stakes: China’s NDC, setting targets for emission reductions, holds “the most important document related to climate change that will be released by any government this year.” (Sandalow, [06:12])
• Expectations and details to watch for:
  • Scope of emissions reduction pledge (20–30% anticipated, but likely lower)
  • Selection of baseline year (indicating if China thinks its emissions have peaked)
  • Sector specifics and the language of the commitment (e.g., “strive to reduce” vs. “commit to reduce”)
• New industrial challenges: Alibaba’s $4 trillion AI/data center investment could impact energy use and coal reliance (Jaffe, [08:03]).

3. China’s Massive Clean Energy Build-Out and its Contradictions

[10:15 – 11:32]

• Staggering figures:
  • 217 GW solar deployed in 2023 alone—more than the entire-installed solar base in US history to date
  • 277 GW in 2024, and already 212 GW in 2025 (Sandalow, [10:15])
  • “The incremental additions in each of the past three years are more than exist in the United States.” (Sandalow, [17:17])
• Data centers & renewables: Most current data center load still comes from coal, but renewables are being phased in, especially via the “Eastern data, Western Compute” initiative.

Memorable quote:

"In 2023, there are about 217 gigawatts of solar, new solar deployed in China. ... That is more solar than had ever been deployed in the history of the United States at the time."
— David Sandalow ([00:17] & [10:15])

4. How Serious Are China’s Promises?

[13:12 – 16:42]

• NDCs as reflection, not drivers, of policy:
  • China tends to write NDCs to match ongoing trends, rather than set truly ambitious new policy directions. They’re serious about meeting public pledges, but NDCs rarely drive additional ambition.
  • "They look at what's already happening and then they define what the NDC is going to be." (Sandalow, [14:27])
• Strategic policy drivers:
  • Industrial leadership (EVs, batteries, solar)
  • Local air pollution reduction (2/3 drop in PM2.5 in Beijing in 15 years)
  • Energy security (reduce oil/gas import vulnerability and create advantage via electrification)
  • Decarbonization—real but not the top priority

5. Clean Tech, Military, and Geopolitics

[16:45 – 21:27]

• Clean energy and security multipliers: Tech advances in batteries, solar, and EVs have clear military and strategic implications (e.g., unmanned submarines, drones).
• Electric vehicles: “You can go to China and buy a pretty good electric vehicle for $10,000–$15,000 or even less actually in some cases.” (Sandalow, [15:04])
• China’s energy independence: EV and LNG truck adoption may soon peak China’s oil consumption in the transport sector (Jaffe, [18:36]).

6. Energy, AI, and the U.S.–China Race

[21:27 – 28:39]

• “Existential race” framing for AI: US sees AI/AGI competition with China as like WWII or the space race, but Chinese experts often see it as a marathon, not a sprint (Webster, [22:29]).
• Supporting high-power AI with energy: China moves quickly to add power capacity (all sources), while the US struggles with constraints—especially crucial as AI is energy-intensive.
• AI for the energy transition: Potential for vast benefits—e.g., AI-accelerated materials innovation, grid efficiency, emission reduction (Sandalow, [27:18]).

7. China’s Competitive Position in Energy

[28:39 – 34:41]

• Solar, batteries, supply chains: China’s “complete dominance of the supply chains,” especially for batteries and solar modules, means the US risks being left behind.
• Infrastructure flexibility: China is aggressively building HV transmission lines to integrate renewables from west to east; “in the US we are building none when it comes to long-distance transmission.” (Webster, [34:41])

8. Flexibility and Challenges in China's Energy Mix

[32:18 – 34:41]

• Under-utilized coal capacity: Many coal plants run at 30–40% utilization—are thus uneconomic; questions persist about grid modernization and reliability (Jaffe, [31:09]).
• Building for flexibility: China is making coal plants more flexible to better balance renewables and meet erratic AI/data center loads (Webster, [32:59]).

9. China’s Global Low Carbon Tech Impact

[34:41 – 39:18]

• Chinese exports are transforming energy systems in emerging economies:
  • Example: Pakistan’s economic crisis triggered solar imports; “Pakistan’s demand for diesel fuel... down by 35% this year.” (Crooks, [34:41])
• Benefits for petro-states: Saudi Arabia’s solar and battery imports help free up oil for export, following Norway’s model (Webster, [37:59]).
• Changes for U.S.: US unlikely to be a major player in this low-cost renewable global trade.

10. U.S. Clean Tech Prospects

[39:23 – 41:36]

• Potential breakouts:
  • Advanced batteries (esp. lithium-sulfur, with military and industrial synergies)
  • Advanced geothermal, leveraging oil/gas expertise for dispatchable, grid-independent power

Breaking News: China Releases Its 2035 NDC

[41:36 – 50:09]

• Main commitments:
  • Economy-wide GHG emission reduction of 7–10% from peak by 2035
  • Expand wind/solar installed capacity to over six times 2020 level (aiming for 3,600 GW by 2035)
  • New energy vehicles to be the “mainstream” of new sales
  • Expand national carbon market to include more sectors

Panel reactions:

• Relatively unambitious: “This commitment to reduce 7 to 10%... is going to be disappointing to a lot of climate activists... The hope was for a much more ambitious target. The Biden administration... was looking for a 30% reduction from... 2025.” (Sandalow, [43:29])
• Sheer scale still impressive: “China is aiming for three times [total US power capacity] just in wind and solar alone.” (Crooks, [46:30])
• Implementation details matter: Rapid deployment, location of solar/wind resources, grid integration all pose challenges (Webster, [47:30]).
• Lack of climate inspiration:

  "It is kind of like admitting that, well, if the United States isn't there leading, I'm not under pressure. I'm just going to go with my simplest, most straightforward NDC and not over commit myself, not stretch, not try to inspire others to come along the journey with me."
  — Amy Myers Jaffe ([49:06])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “China is the number one greenhouse gas emitter... There's no solution to the climate change issue without China.”
  — David Sandalow ([02:52])

• “The incremental additions in each of the past three years are more than exist in the United States.”
  — David Sandalow ([00:17], [10:15])

• “In general, the Chinese government does not make commitments in a public setting... that it doesn't plan to meet.”
  — David Sandalow ([13:12])

• “If we did not have tariff barriers against Chinese electric vehicles in the United States, our streets would be filled with them.”
  — David Sandalow ([15:04])

• “We have this very, I'd say incoherent approach in the US where we... are handcuffing ourselves by not being able... to get power to the grid quickly.”
  — Joe Webster ([22:29])

• "You can use AI to accelerate the pace of innovation in really important ways... AI offers the opportunity to accelerate the pace of innovation in really important ways."
  — David Sandalow ([27:18])

• "In the US we are building none when it comes to long-distance transmission."
  — Joe Webster ([34:41])

• “This commitment to reduce 7 to 10% from a peak year is going to be disappointing to a lot of climate activists, a lot of the diplomats who have worked on the Paris agreement.”
  — David Sandalow ([43:29])

• “It is kind of like admitting that, well, if the United States isn't there leading, I'm not under pressure. I'm just going to go with my simplest, most straightforward NDC and not over commit myself, not stretch, not try to inspire others to come along the journey with me.”
  — Amy Myers Jaffe ([49:06])

Important Timestamps

• 02:52 — Sandalow: The centrality of China in global emissions
• 05:12 – 08:03 — Anticipating China’s NDC; stakes and expectations
• 10:15 — Sandalow: China’s solar deployment dwarfs US
• 13:12 — Are China’s NDCs meaningful?
• 15:04–18:36 — Industrial strategy, air pollution, and military clean tech benefits
• 21:27–24:31 — AI, energy supply, and US–China geopolitics
• 27:18 — Sandalow: AI accelerates clean energy innovation
• 34:41–37:59 — China drives low-cost renewables in developing world
• 41:36 — US innovations: advanced batteries, geothermal
• 41:36–49:06 — China’s NDC released: panel reactions, implications

Conclusion

This episode captures a pivotal moment for global climate policy: China’s new NDC is relatively conservative, reflecting both massive ongoing deployment of clean energy technologies and reluctance to lead without reciprocal US ambition. The discussion highlights the enormous practical and strategic stakes of clean energy innovation, the complexities of geopolitics and supply chains, and the uneven global transition underway. Even limited Chinese advances, due to their unprecedented scale, can reshape global energy and climate trajectories—if the rest of the world can keep up.