Energy Gang: What Happened at COP30?

Date: November 25, 2025
Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests:

• Amy Harder (Axios)
• Lisa Jacobson (Business Council for Sustainable Energy)
• Simon Evans (Carbon Brief)
• Giampiero Nachi (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

Overview: Main Theme and Purpose

This episode of Energy Gang provides a comprehensive debrief of COP30, the UN's annual climate summit, held in Belem, Brazil. The discussion zeroes in on three primary themes:

• The outcomes and perceived successes or failures of COP30,
• Evolving approaches to emissions cuts (mitigation) and adaptation to a warming world,
• The chronic struggle to mobilize the finance needed for global climate action—especially for poorer nations.

Through expert perspectives, the show breaks down contentious negotiations over fossil fuels, the rise of adaptation as a priority, and ongoing frustrations with the glacial pace of climate finance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Was COP30 a Success or Failure? (04:20–09:08)

• Mixed perceptions: The panel acknowledged a sense of anti-climax, noting COP summits are rarely seen as outright successes but rarely total failures either.
• "Staying in the race":
  • Amy Harder (04:40): "Sometimes it's just enough to stay in the race and not fall down and completely fail. And that's what we saw out of Belem."
• Marathon, not a sprint:
  • Lisa Jacobson (06:21): "It's a marathon. This is not a short term endeavor and it's not going to be linear... We are in an implementation and action phase and that's what we found."
• Amazon context: Hosting COP30 in the Amazon increased awareness of climate impacts, nature-based solutions, and the daily realities of extreme heat for billions of people.

2. Adaptation Takes Center Stage (09:08–13:34)

• Raised profile: Both host and guests observed a new urgency and prominence for adaptation—preparing societies and infrastructure to cope with impacts of climate change.
• Funding adaptation is challenging:
  • Lisa Jacobson (09:52): "Most of the conversation was about funding and we all know how challenging that is right now, but also essential."
• Different players:
  • Amy Harder (10:40): "The discussion of adapting to a warming world is really other than the political leaders, it's a totally different set of people who are responsible for it... it's really two parallel problems that we have to deal with."

3. Climate Finance: Persistent Frustrations (11:48–18:46)

• Shortfall in funding: While a $1 trillion/year climate finance goal was floated at COP29, only $300 billion/year by 2035 was agreed at COP30, and even that with vague language.
• Language matters:
  • Simon Evans (13:34): "The decision text that came out of the cop was a call to triple adaptation finance by 2035... 'calls on' is literally the most weak and woolly version of verb they could possibly have chosen."
• Uncertain progress:
  • Ed Crooks (17:23): "If the language is kind of calls on, it's the weaker kind of language that does not presumably inspire a lot of confidence in this money actually flowing."
• Adaptation vs. mitigation competition:
  • Amy Harder (18:46): "How does the debate begin pitting adaptation dollars against mitigation dollars? There's only so much money to go around... I also worry the richer countries that can deploy novel technology will leave lower income countries further behind."

4. Emerging Debates: Geoengineering (20:31–22:12)

• Solar geoengineering enters conversations:
  • Amy Harder (20:31): "The sudden rise in discussion about solar geoengineering... a controversial but very affordable way to lower the global temperature... I'm just suddenly seeing it everywhere and it's a significant one that we should watch closely."
• Will governments take it seriously?
  • Amy Harder (21:29): "You're seeing startups be invested in that would aim to do this. I think you often see governments as a lagging indicator. So you're seeing entrepreneurs and scientists inching toward this and then governments will inevitably have to address it."

5. The Role of Technology & the Private Sector (24:41–29:10)

• Falling costs help, but aren’t a panacea:
  • Lisa Jacobson (24:41): "We're still kind of in a situation where the amount of money that we need is never going to be met in the short term... Global investment is far behind just to provide energy access."
• Blended approaches: Opportunities exist to combine adaptation, mitigation, and public health (e.g., building technology).
• Private investment:
  • Private sector appetite to invest in low-carbon projects is growing but hinges on stable regulatory environments and risk mitigation.

6. Geopolitics: China’s Increasing Influence (29:10–34:54)

• China’s duality: China both pushes clean energy exports globally and continues expanding coal capacity at home.
  • Simon Evans (30:20): "Regardless of what China is actually saying at the COP... what they're doing on the ground is actually making already a really big difference to emissions around the world."
• US vs. China: The US is still a major player, especially at subnational levels; China is cautious about being labeled a "leader" but is central to energy transitions globally.

7. The Fossil Fuel Debate (35:42–39:41)

• Controversy over language:
  • Simon Evans (35:42): "The phrase 'transitioning away from fossil fuels'... was agreed in Dubai at COP28 two years ago... Countries that signed up... are no longer willing to say it again and they say, well, that's backsliding."
  • Amy Harder (38:18): "I think it matters what the words that they include and whether or not they include fossil fuels... The fact that there wasn't some additional language that really tried to reverse what was agreed to in Dubai, I think is a success."

8. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (39:41–43:47)

• Progress but off-target:
  • Simon Evans (41:11): "There is not a single major economy that is on course to meet its goals under its NDC for reducing emissions by 2030... we're still pretty much on track for about two and a half degrees of warming, give or take."
• Positive trajectory:
  • Simon Evans (41:11): "The graph shows... we had this graph going way up into the sky and it was heading for four degrees... now we've got this graph which is like, sure, flattening off, starting to go down a bit now..."

9. Final Reflections and Hopes Moving Forward (43:47–47:06)

• Still in the race: The panel expressed cautious optimism, citing that while progress is slow and the impacts are severe, backsliding was avoided and international climate cooperation persists.
  • Amy Harder (44:23): "I'm going back to the running metaphor... It's not like you run every single mile at the exact same pace... we're not done. We finished this tough round and I think it's an important realignment and readjustment to the political realities."
  • Simon Evans (45:06): "Two and a half degrees of warming is really, really bad... But genuinely, we're doing a lot better than we could have been. And there's always the potential to keep going further."
  • Lisa Jacobson (46:30): "It's a facilitating process to help governments and people tackle an extremely complex set of challenges... I'm glad... we didn't see any significant backsliding and we're just going to have to keep focused on driving ahead."

10. Finance Deep Dive: MDBs & Adaptation _(47:24–58:53)**

• Giampiero Nachi (EBRD) on COP30 Takeaways:
  • Record-high participation, including wide civil society and financial sector engagement.
  • Noteworthy: Launch of the "Tropical Forever Forestry Fund."
  • Emphasis on adaptation and growing pressure on multilateral development banks (MDBs) to scale up adaptation finance.
  • Giampiero Nachi (48:57): "The demonstration, for example, outside were very welcomed by the participants because they brought a positive energy and also managed to bring to the attention of the participants what the real issues are..."
• MDBs and adaptation:
  • Adaptation is hard to finance via private sector alone ("Hard to design and develop projects that have an obvious commercial return...").
  • Mitigation not to be neglected: growing renewables is positive, but more ambition needed.
• COP31 Outlook:
  • Key will be to operationalize finance frameworks, focus on private sector involvement, and leverage the unusual joint Turkey-Australia host/presidency dynamic for momentum.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Sometimes it's just enough to stay in the race and not fall down and completely fail." — Amy Harder (04:40)

• "We are in an implementation and action phase and that's what we found." — Lisa Jacobson (06:21)

• "Calls on is literally the most weak and woolly version of verb they could possibly have chosen." — Simon Evans (13:34)

• "Money is what it all comes down to." — Amy Harder (18:46)

• "I'm just suddenly seeing [solar geoengineering] everywhere... it's a significant one that we should watch closely." — Amy Harder (20:31)

• "Regardless of what China is actually saying at the COP... what they're doing on the ground is actually making already a really big difference to emissions around the world." — Simon Evans (30:20)

• "It's not over. We're not doomed to two and a half degrees. We can keep making progress." — Simon Evans (45:31)

• "The gravity of the situation definitely weighs on me. I just got back today... But the process showed persistence and resiliency." — Lisa Jacobson (46:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Initial reactions & race metaphor: 04:20–09:08
• Adaptation rise: 09:08–13:34
• Vague climate finance language: 13:34–18:46
• Solar geoengineering enter stage: 20:31–22:12
• Private sector adaptation/mitigation: 24:41–29:10
• China’s changing role: 29:10–34:54
• Fossil fuel language spat: 35:42–39:41
• NDCs and emissions progress: 39:41–43:47
• Final hopes/concerns: 43:47–47:06
• MDB/finance adaptation deep dive: 47:24–58:53

Tone and Style

The episode is characterized by a pragmatic, occasionally wry optimism. Panelists are realistic about slow and non-linear progress, yet highlight incremental gains and the indispensable nature of persistent, multilateral engagement—even if only to "stay in the race."

Summary by Energy Gang Summarizer. Suitable for listeners who want an in-depth, accessible recap of what COP30 meant and where climate action, globally, stands in late 2025.