Energy Gang (Wood Mackenzie)

Episode: What happened at COP29?

Release Date: November 27, 2024
Host: Ed Crooks
Guests: Melissa Lott (Microsoft), Amy Harder (Cypher), featuring Anca Gurzu (Cypher, field reporting), quote from Simon Stiell (Executive Secretary, UN Climate Change)

Episode Overview

This episode analyzes the outcomes and atmosphere of the COP29 climate talks recently held in Baku, Azerbaijan. Host Ed Crooks and panelists Melissa Lott and Amy Harder dissect the headline agreements—including a major finance pledge and a long-awaited carbon market breakthrough—against the backdrop of diplomatic tension and rising skepticism about the United Nations climate negotiation process. With on-the-ground insights from Anca Gurzu and reflections on both the progress and shortcomings of the summit, the discussion evaluates the current state and future prospects of global climate action.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Atmosphere at COP29: Two Worlds Collide

[01:41–04:59]

• Parallel Worlds: Anca Gurzu (field correspondent for Cypher) describes “two parallel worlds”—the public display of world leader statements vs. the behind-closed-doors negotiations.
  • “There are almost two parallel worlds happening here ... one is all the public statements and announcements ... then you have all the delegates in the negotiating rooms." – Anca Gurzu [02:04]
  • Public side: Tense, with “a flurry of announcements" and notable diplomatic rows, including accusations from Azerbaijan’s president directed at the West.
  • Private side: Negotiations were also “not looking good,” with the EU and others warning of the real possibility of no deal due to too many unresolved issues.

2. The Main Outcome: Climate Finance Deal

[09:31–15:09]

• "The Finance COP": Central focus was the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance.
  • Result: $300 billion/year finance goal by 2035, tripling the prior $100 billion annual target set in 2009.
  • Mixed reactions:
    • Praised by developed nations; sharply criticized by developing countries wanting $1.3 trillion annually.
    • “Although, I guess you could call the outcome of the negotiations a success, it was definitely a qualified success.” – Ed Crooks [11:47]
  • Panel View:
    • Incremental step, but a significant gap remains between needs and pledges.
    • Melissa Lott: "Let's celebrate it for what it is. But... the reality of what we need to do and the reality of what's happening, those are different things right now." [11:52]
    • Amy Harder uses the analogy of health guidelines vs. real behavior to frame ambition vs. actuality, noting it’s “cold comfort” for most-vulnerable nations [12:52].

3. Carbon Markets: Article 6 Breakthrough

[17:24–20:58]

• Agreement at Last: First final global framework for trading carbon credits—nearly a decade after the Paris Agreement outlined the plan (Article 6).
  • “The creation of a market where we can recognize the value of emissions ... is a really big deal. ... This had seemed like an immovable object.” – Melissa Lott [19:34]
  • Panel sees this as significant for potential emissions reductions, but flags ongoing concerns over market quality, verification, and the risk of ineffective offsets.
  • “Hopefully this new, more verified market by the UN will help protect the public ... that's a big if.” – Amy Harder [18:34]

4. The Fossil Fuels Rhetoric: A Step Back, or Holding the Line?

[22:38–26:14]

• Language Regression: This year’s official statement failed to reiterate COP28’s historic language on “transitioning away from fossil fuels.”
  • “The fact that they couldn’t, as you said, Ed, merely repeat what they agreed to last year is objectively not a good thing at all ... but sometimes you have to exert a lot of energy to stay in the same place.” – Amy Harder [24:38, 26:14]
  • Amy notes that, while “language matters,” in current geopolitics, not regressing is itself a minor victory.

5. Divisions and the Future of the COP Process

[15:09–17:24; 27:06–29:23]

• Deepening Splits: Growing tension between developed and developing economies, and also among emerging economies.
  • Melissa: “We don’t see a ton of [global cooperation] happening yet. I worry that this is a symbol of a lot of divisions we’re seeing around the world.” [16:44]
• Looking Ahead to COP30 (Brazil 2025): Both panelists expect immense challenges, with pressure to update national pledges and make material progress amid an unpredictable geopolitical context.
  • “Prediction is hard, particularly about the future. We just don’t know what will happen.” – Amy Harder [28:36]
  • “Next year’s COP matters a lot... I hope it’s a few more yards than I might predict if I had my crystal ball today, which I unfortunately left at home.” – Melissa Lott [27:40]

6. Beyond the UN Process: The Real Drivers of Transition

[29:23–30:13]

• Ed emphasizes that while COPs and UN agreements are crucial, “an enormous amount of change” is happening through business, technology, and local actions.
  • “There are things that are being transformed as we speak because of what businesses are doing ... although it’ll be difficult for the COP process, that doesn’t mean the world of energy will stop evolving.” – Ed Crooks [29:23]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Simon Stiell (UN Climate Change):
  • “At COP28, the world agreed to triple renewables. At COP29, we tripled climate finance ... COP29 also reached global agreement on carbon markets after almost a decade of hard work. ... This is no time for victory laps. We need to set our sights and redouble our efforts on the road to Belem.” [05:35]
• Amy Harder:
  • "Even if we don't meet the goals set out, anything is still better than nothing. I realize perhaps the simplicity of that metaphor is probably cold comfort to developing countries..." [12:52]
• Melissa Lott:
  • "The reality of what we need to do and the reality of what's happening—those are different things right now." [11:52]
  • Playfully: "Somebody message me, give me a better [climate analogy]." [19:34]
• On the sense of progress:
  • "It's another kind of step that stops the great kind of bicycle of climate policy, which has to keep moving forward or it'll topple over. Stops it from toppling over." – Ed Crooks [14:47]

Other Segments: Free Electrons

[30:13–34:25] (End-of-show personal/side stories)

• Melissa: Building a solar-powered LEGO kit and seeking a life-cycle analysis for it.
• Amy: Laments the closure of Seattle’s Gig car-share, reflecting on local infrastructure challenges.
• Ed: Discusses Northvolt’s bankruptcy—a chilling reminder about the difficulty of building a domestic battery industry in Europe.

Timeline: Key Segments & Timestamps

• [00:05] Intro and Host/Guest Introductions
• [01:41] Anca Gurzu’s "two worlds" of COP29
• [04:59] Negotiation difficulties and context
• [05:35] Simon Stiell’s COP29 wrap-up speech
• [09:31] Discussion of the $300B finance deal—success or not?
• [17:24] The breakthrough on Article 6 carbon market rules
• [22:38] Failure to repeat "transition away from fossil fuels" language
• [27:06] Outlook for COP30 and UN process viability
• [29:23] Broader drivers of the energy transition
• [30:13] Free Electron segment—personal updates and reflections

Tone and Language

The conversation remains rigorous yet conversational, marked by evidence-based optimism ("qualified success"), skepticism of diplomatic progress, and personal reflections. The hosts repeatedly acknowledge the gravity and complexity of the climate challenge while using relatable analogies to demystify international climate finance and negotiation politics.

Summary: Takeaway

COP29 delivered a significant, though imperfect, global climate finance deal and finally unlocked the long-stalled international carbon markets framework. However, deep divides—particularly between rich and developing nations—continue to challenge both ambition and implementation. With COP30 looming as the next major milestone, the podcast panel sees both daunting obstacles and the persistent, parallel advance of real-world energy transitions driven by forces beyond diplomatic halls.