What happened in COP30’s first week? Support for energy efficiency and a status report on methane show which climate initiatives are still making progress

Summary

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Podcast Summary – Energy Gang: "What happened in COP30’s first week? Support for energy efficiency and a status report on methane show which climate initiatives are still making progress"

Date: November 19, 2025
Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests:

• Amy Myers Jaffe (NYU)
• Bob Hinkle (Metris Energy)
• Bjorn Otto Sverdrup (Oil and Gas Climate Initiative)

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Overview

This episode of Energy Gang provides a live update from COP30 in Belem, Brazil, focusing on two major topics: the global push for energy efficiency and the ongoing efforts to reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. Host Ed Crooks is joined by Amy Myers Jaffe, Bob Hinkle (live from COP30), and later in the show Bjorn Otto Sverdrup, to discuss sectoral initiatives, business involvement, and the evolving policy landscape for climate action.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Atmosphere and Stakeholder Presence at COP30

• COP30’s location in Belem: Difficult logistics resulted in lighter US business presence, but strong sub-national and private sector engagement, especially from states like California.
  • "California, of course, has had a really big presence here... California is the fourth largest economy in the world." – Bob Hinkle [07:22]
• Compared to previous COPs: Less overt representation from oil and gas industry and global finance, and a shift towards ‘bottom-up’ projects and practical business engagement.

2. Energy Efficiency: From Pledge to Implementation

• Global context: At COP28, nations pledged to double the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030 (from ~2% to 4% annually). COP30 discussions focus on how to achieve this.

• Business coalition: Over 180 US businesses, including Metris Energy, signed a letter supporting the pledge.

  • "Energy efficiency on its own can account for over 40% of the emission reductions that are needed to hit the Paris Agreement." – Bob Hinkle [10:36]

• Drivers and Barriers:

  • Efficiency is attractive whether or not climate is a corporate priority—it saves money and boosts equipment resilience.
    • "Very few of our projects are getting done because someone is saving on their energy bill... It's about resiliency of equipment and it's also about health." – Bob Hinkle [12:53]
  • Grid resilience and affordability are increasingly important, especially with anticipated demand growth from AI, electrification, and industrial expansion.
  • Deployment speed is a key asset, especially as energy demand is projected to jump 3–4% annually until 2040.
    • "We're now expecting that to jump 3 to 4% a year, doubling by the time we get to 2040." – Bob Hinkle [13:12]

• AI as an Efficiency Enabler:

  • AI has potential to drive dramatic efficiency gains by predicting equipment failures, optimizing building operations, and reducing wasted fuel.
    • "The numbers that you can crank out of AI for efficiency across a wide number of sectors... is very high." – Amy Myers Jaffe [15:07]

• Is Doubling Efficiency Realistic?

  • Ed Crooks expresses skepticism: Historically, global energy efficiency improvements rarely exceed 2% annually.
  • Bob Hinkle argues substantial untapped potential exists, especially in older buildings and systems, if broader investment perspectives and incentives are applied.
    • "If that economic full picture is looked at on a holistic basis, These investments are slam dunks..." – Bob Hinkle [18:14]
  • Policy can play a greater role, such as direct utility/market incentives, carbon pricing, and efficiency-first mandates (e.g., California's integrated resource planning).
    • "In California, there's a loading order where energy efficiency is the first thing that utilities have to think of..." – Bob Hinkle [24:34]

• Jevons Paradox ("Rebound Effect"):

  • Ed Crooks asks if increased efficiency could paradoxically cause higher total energy use.
  • Bob Hinkle and Amy Myers Jaffe push back, noting today’s energy pricing, policy, and technology context is very different.
    • "There isn't necessarily even a one to one that we can start using a lot less of something and the price actually goes down..." – Amy Myers Jaffe [28:04]
  • Amy gives tangible examples such as vehicle miles, AI-optimized building management, and dramatic savings with new technologies like geothermal systems.

• Anecdotes & Memorable Moments:

  • NYC’s building energy grades ("A" to "D") spark discussion about the visibility of efficiency and its effects on local decision-making [32:24].

3. Status Update: Methane Emissions in Oil & Gas

• Guest: Bjorn Otto Sverdrup, Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI), and the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC).

• COP30 Focus: Not about new pledges but about implementation, delivery, and transparency.

• OGCI Results:

  • Methane emissions down 62%, flaring down 72%, overall GHGs down 24% among member companies in the past decade [40:52].
  • New charter (OGDC) brings together 55 companies over 100 countries, covering nearly 40% of global oil & gas production.

• Key advances:

  • Reporting and transparency—98% of charter company production now covered by reports, with increasing uniformity in metrics.
  • Over 2,000 engineers trained and tailored methane abatement projects in high-intensity regions.
  • "This charter has become a very important platform for sharing of practices between international oil and gas companies with state owned companies..." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [39:11]

• Role of Technology:

  • Methane is invisible and odorless, but new satellite and AI-driven detection is transforming monitoring and response.
    • "It's amazing what you can do with the satellite pictures and AI to basically recreate a plume." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [52:39]
  • Direct approaches with data are leading to rapid mitigation, even in regions previously hard to engage.

• Policy & Market Relevance:

  • Momentum must be maintained with policy, financing, and peer-to-peer pressure—especially in emerging economies.
  • "With the most recent report from IEA... oil and gas will be around... for longer than many would like. So in many ways I think it's become more important to produce responsibly and... address methane." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [46:56]

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On US Stakeholder Mosaic at COP30:
  • "The US is really, you know, a mosaic of a lot broader groups and many of them are here." – Bob Hinkle [07:22]
• On AI’s Potential:
  • "The AI can actually help them with energy efficiency, have them know when their equipment is going to fail before it fails, and all kinds of applications..." – Amy Myers Jaffe [15:07]
• On Business Motives for Efficiency:
  • "Very few of our projects are getting done because someone is saving on their energy bill..." – Bob Hinkle [12:53]
• On Methane Reporting Progress:
  • "98% of the production from these companies are covered by reports... 30 companies are sharing data with us that are typically not sharing data or releasing public data." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [41:57]
• On Technology Transforming Methane Mitigation:
  • "With the satellite pictures and AI to basically recreate a plume... many companies are unaware and confronted with the data, they welcome the view and they're able to mitigate those emissions in a fairly short period of time." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [52:39]
• On the Mood at COP30:
  • "How has [COP30] left you feeling about the global effort on climate change...?" – Ed Crooks
  • "Energized and optimistic... there's so many different nodes where people are doing the day to day hard work and getting projects done." – Bob Hinkle [33:25]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------| | Opening & US presence at COP30 | 00:00–08:07 | | Oil/gas industry and finance at COP30 | 08:07–09:50 | | Business energy efficiency letter/pledge | 09:50–11:34 | | Efficiency: business drivers, resiliency | 11:34–16:49 | | The potential and limits of energy efficiency | 16:49–25:47 | | Jevons Paradox Debate | 25:47–32:24 | | Methane initiatives: OGCI, OGDC | 38:01–44:20 | | Methane reduction technology & momentum | 44:20–54:31 | | Reflections & closing thoughts on COP30 | 33:25–35:46, 54:31–end |

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Conclusion

The first week of COP30 showcased continued progress in both sectoral action and technology-enabled emissions abatement. Despite logistical challenges, the US business and sub-national presence remains strong, and the global momentum for practical, measurable advances—especially in energy efficiency and methane reduction—is growing. With the deployment of AI, greater data transparency, and support for local initiative, the transition is shifting from high-level pledges to local implementation and collaborative accountability.

Overall tone: Candid, forward-looking, practical optimism from all speakers, tempered by awareness of structural, market, and policy hurdles ahead.

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For more info, visit Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Gang or the respective organizations mentioned in the episode.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign. Hello and welcome to the Energy Gang, a discussion show from Wood MacKenzie about the fast changing world of energy. I'm ID Crooks and on this show we're going to be bringing you an Update from the COP30 climate talks in Belem, Brazil. The negotiations continue with continuing evidence of deep divisions between countries over the right responses to climate change. And there've been the usual announcements and updates on specific sectoral initiatives. There's been a lot of talk about methane, including the launch of the first global methane status report from the UN and we're going to be talking a little bit more about that later in the show. But another big topic for COP30 has been energy efficiency. COP28 in Dubai a couple of years ago agreed a pledge to double the rate of energy efficiency improvements worldwide. And one of the issues on the agenda at COP30 has been how to implement that pledge and to discuss that issue of energy efficiency. It's a pleasure to welcome back Amy Myers. Jaffe Aimee is the director of the Energy Climate justice and Sustainability Ability Lab at New York University. Hi Amy, how are you?

[B]

I'm great, Ed, how are you?

[A]

Very good, thanks. Very good. It's also a pleasure to welcome from Berlin, Brazil for the first time on the show Bob Hinkle, who is the founder and CEO of Metris Energy. Hello Bob. Welcome to the Energy Gang.

[C]

Yeah, no, great to be here. I'm really excited for the discussion today. And doing this from COP30 adds a lot, probably a little background noise too, so apologies in advance for that.

[A]

Yeah, not at all. No, it sounds great. Very live. Kind of good to hear from you. Right at the heart of the talks as they're going on right now. This episode is brought to you by the American Council on Renewable Energy. Based in Washington, D.C. aECOR is a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that promotes investment in American clean energy, infrastructure development and innovation. In partnership with a broad membership that spans the energy value chain, AECOR advances the public policies, market research and industry convenings to position the United States States as a global leader in clean energy deployment. Whether it's the latest policy and market developments, the legislative and regulatory tracking, industry data and analysis, or marquee events like the Finance Forum in New York or the Grid Forum in dc, ACOR unites clean energy investors, developers, energy buyers, power generators, manufacturers and energy providers and more. To learn More about joining ACOR, go to acor.com membership. Looking for greater resilience in energy systems without the risks of going it alone at Hythium, We've got you covered as an integrated energy storage solution provider. We offer customized storage systems as a service tailored to each project, whether utility scale, commercial or renewable integration. From design and financing to operations and maintenance. Pythium manages the entire lifecycle, delivering sustainable profit, stronger resilience and lower emissions. Built to last, built for progress. Discover more at www.Hythium.com and let's empower the green future together. Before we get into that, and I want to talk a little bit about the sort of the scene and the feel of COP 30 in a moment, but before we do that, tell us a little bit about yourself and about Metras Energy. You founded the company in, I think, 2009. Can you talk a bit about what it is you do and what your goals are?

[C]

Yeah. In terms of some background on Metris, we're a developer, financier and an owner of larger scale energy efficiency and sustainable energy upgrade projects, typically for commercial, industrial and manufacturing firms, but also for colleges, schools and hospitals. Really a lot of community type investment projects. We finance and implement projects under our Energy as a Service solution where we fund 100% of the upfront cost of a project, own the assets, and then bill customers based on the measured performance. And back when I founded Metris, and you're right, it was kind of right in that 2008, 2009 time period. It was at a time when the market for power purchase agreements, particularly for smaller scale solar projects, was taking off. And my objective with Metris was really to turn that solar PPA model on its head and finance projects. But then bill based on realized energy savings rather than energy generations. And our first tagline at Metris was even saved as earned back when we started. And that really reflected that our focus was solely on energy savings. But over time, as the markets evolved and Metris has evolved and frankly, as I've learned, we've really come to realize that projects are about a lot more than energy savings.

[A]

Got it. So tell us about going to cop 30 then. Why are you there?

[C]

Well, I mean, you know, a variety of reasons. I mean, first off, it's a privilege to be here at cop. You know, I this is my fifth cop and every time that I come, I learn something and I learn something that I take away as an individual, but also really from a business perspective. I mentioned that Metris has expanded into the delivery of cooling and heating as a service and not just energy efficiency as a service. Well, that really came from COP28 and back at that time, the Global Cooling Pledge. And Metris joined a group that's Part of the UN Cool Coalition and all that just really helped me see around different corners, new business opportunities for Metris. So that's really meaningful. But then I think also I'm a big believer in voting with your feet. And this is a critical time in the energy transition. And as we think about climate change and showing that the US Is broader than the federal government is part of a larger private sector and really sub national leaders that are engaged and focused on, you know, from my perspective, the business opportunity that climate presents, that's key and that's why I'm here.

[A]

And how does this one compare to those earlier cops that you've been to? It certainly feels like the American business presence has been dialed down quite a bit, partly, I think, for logistical reasons. I know some people went to meetings in Sao Paulo or Rio, didn't actually come to Belem, which is not a huge city. Say, does it feel lonely being an American business representative when a lot of other businesses have stayed away?

[C]

Yeah, well, I mean, I guess, you know, breaking it into a couple different parts. There's the federal government presence and then there's the US Business presence and then there's subnational leaders. So starting with the first is pretty simple. The federal presence at the US from the US Government was one person, and that was Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. And it was, it was great to have him here. I bet he was pretty lonely. But in terms of the broader business, you know, presence here, you know, I don't see it being as of a radical drop as maybe is being talked about. You know, yes, I do think it's a smaller presence. Some of that, as you pointed out, I think is the logistics here of getting to Belem. I wouldn't separate, I mean, I would think of the broader business presence where within the leaders summit that did take place in Sao Paulo and Rio as well. So I think when you add up the presence of US businesses from those two earlier events along with who's here in Belem, I think you get a good group of folks. I'm here as part of the Business Council for Sustainable Energy's delegation. I've come with them for the last five years. Their delegation is similar size, so, you know, a little bit of a drop, but not as much as people are saying. And then just last night I was on a panel that was a combo of both private sector leaders and sub national leaders. And there were a lot of folks from the different city and state level. New Mexico, Tennessee, you know, California, of course, has had a really big presence Here. And I'm not just saying that because Metris is based in San Francisco. But you know, California is the fourth largest economy in the world, if you want to look at it in its isolation. And there was a strong presence here. And again, it gets back to that point of the US is really, you know, a mosaic of a lot broader groups and many of them are here.

[B]

So Bob, let me ask you about that because I, you know, in watching the media, you have, I mean, Exxon seems to have a presence and wanted to make that presence known. But the complaints from the Azerbaijan cop and the Dubai cop was that the oil industry was all over the place. Did you feel that in previous cops and did they seem not present this time? I mean, do you see a change in that?

[C]

Yeah, I think that's a, that's a good point. I would say certainly in the last two cops, probably even take it back one to Egypt as well. Definitely a strong oil and gas presence. And that was very, that was more palpable, more palpable than Glasgow and more palpable than it is here. So I would say, you know, that, that for sure is true. Probably a little less of a presence, I would say also from larger financial institutions. You know, that I think is a big drop off, but some of that too. And there's been some discussion on this topic and your question is a good one. Not all cops are created equal. I think COP28, with the global stock take that was happening then, COP26 and some of the focus on the net zero alliance, there's certain cops that I think pull in people more. And the absence of some of those folks might or might not mean anything. And you know, what I've seen here is definitely a very strong private sector kind of focus on projects where a lot of the discussions I've been having with the people that might not be some of the higher level CEO folks from businesses, but are the people that are getting the work done.

[A]

So let's talk about what has been happening then and what businesses have been doing. There was one thing that particularly caught my eye was this letter. I know you were one of the signatories of this letter signed by 180American businesses, sent to the President and the CEO of COP30, organized by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy, you were talking about earlier and the alliance to Save Energy. And it's talking about your commitment to that goal of doubling energy efficiency by 2030, or to be clear, to be doubling energy efficiency improvements. The rate of those by 2030. That was the goal that was first agreed by government's COP28 in Dubai. So talk first of all about why you signed that letter. What is the significance of it to you?

[C]

The letter does a couple things that I really like. I mean, first, it puts a spotlight on energy efficiency, which is critical. It's critical on many fronts. It's really a strategic imperative for US Businesses in terms of the climate. Energy efficiency on its own can account for over 40% of the emission reductions that are needed to hit the Paris Agreement. And I like the style of the goal because it sets the direction of travel, tells where we need to get to. It gives a time period, but it isn't prescriptive in how to get there. It gives flexibility to deploy all different types of energy efficiency solutions and upgrades. And that's exactly how we think about things at Metris when we work with customers. It's about meeting a customer where they're at, finding the right solutions for them. Because energy efficiency is a lot of different things, a lot of different technologies, and you don't want to be too prescriptive.

[A]

So, of course, the other thing that people really like about energy efficiency is that you can want to pursue it even if you don't care at all about climate. It, as you say, can have significant benefits in terms of reducing emissions, but it can also be something you want to do just in order to save money, which I guess presumably, particularly in the present climate, when everyone's very focused on energy affordability, when many people, including the president administration, are much less focused on, on emissions reduction, means that it's kind of compelling as something you can continue to support and advance and make progress with, even at the moment.

[B]

Well, and especially a lot of countries have pressures on their electricity grid. So that gets to either the price for electricity, the retail price to consumers, but it also gets to just how many businesses can you add? Can you move forward economic development? If you're in the Global south, can you move forward on other kinds of industries that need electricity to be successful? So it does really, you know, check a lot of boxes. Bob, are you finding, though, with electricity prices going up, there's less interest in H Vac for heating solutions or not? I mean, is that something that you see in your business?

[C]

I think it's across the board. You both bring up two really key points. I mean, maybe so, starting first with Ed's comment, I think that's spot on. What we see from customers is, yes, energy savings are nice, but if I'm being honest, very few of our projects are getting done because someone is saving on their energy bill. We're doing projects because we're replacing boilers and H vac systems that are 30, 40, 50 years old. We replaced a boiler up in New England that was almost 70 years old. So it's about resiliency of equipment and it's also about health. We're hearing a lot about indoor air quality, and there's a hospital that we're working with in the Pacific Northwest that has had to cancel surgeries because they haven't had within their surgery suites the right type of indoor air quality metrics to perform surgeries. That's bad for. For. For patients and that's bad for the business of the hospital. And Amy, on the demand side. Yeah, we're seeing that as really something that's going to be a coming feature. We haven't been hearing a lot from customers about rising energy demand, but we know it's coming. We know it's coming because AI, beyond the AI and data center demand increase. There's a massive jump in demand for space, cooling and just electrification in general. And we've had a period for a couple decades now where it's been pretty flat or stagnant growth in energy demand. And we're now expecting that to jump 3 to 4% a year, doubling by the time we get to 2040. And that's going to be another reason both for businesses to do it, because it's going to start hitting their bill. But governments too, because they're going to need to avoid downtime on the grid and think about grid resiliency and avoid bottlenecks. And energy efficiency can be rapidly deployed for that.

[B]

I think the speed at which some of these things can be deployed is really a pivotal thing. If you got a particular location that has some kind of congestion on their grid, or even countries that have experienced severe fuel shortages in 2022 also, you know, have that front of mind. And then just competitiveness, you know, if you. The less energy you're using to produce a product, the more cheaply you're producing it, basically. And so I'm seeing that as being a big driver everywhere, especially as we go into this competitive landscape with new AI and so forth. And Ed and I have been debating this, but I mean, I did a piece recently in the Wall Street Journal. The numbers that you can crank out of AI for efficiency across a wide number of sectors, whether that's transportation, building sector, building material sector, et cetera, is very high. And it's higher than even the highest projections for how much electricity we're going to need from the AI. So there is this new course that people can take because the AI can actually help them with energy efficiency, can have them know when their equipment is going to fail before it fails, and all kinds of applications like that. So I think it should be energy efficiency enabling. But not everybody says that, but I really believe in that.

[C]

Yeah. And I think, you know, as Ed was talking about too, it even goes broader where I think AI and collecting data on indoor air quality and you know, through other sensors and then analyzing those patterns and trends is going to result in more sustainable and efficient cooling systems, better air circulation. That's done just, you know, automatically. I think there's a lot of upside there too, that often gets lost in the demand growth side of the equation.

[A]

Yeah, absolutely. Okay, so I hear all of that and I agree that when you put it like that, it does all sound very compelling. I have to say I have a couple of big reservations about the debate around energy efficiency. And in particular, when you think about this goal, the goal that you say you're supporting of accelerating the pace in energy efficiency improvements, doubling that from 2% a year to 4%, one of the things I think about that is that seems to be really hard to do that if you look at the long run trend over the course of decades, that efficiency improvement has been running at about 2% a year, on and on and on, year after year after year. Occasion a little bit faster when energy prices spike and occasionally a little bit slower when energy prices decline. But on the whole, there seem to be some pretty built in structural reasons why that's about the pace of improvement that we can expect in energy efficiency. And obviously companies like yours and others can do great things at particular sites and generate real improvements. But across the economy as a whole, that doesn't seem to be possible to transform things. And so that makes me think when you hear this international commitment and the big talk about doubling the pace of gains across the global economy, is that really realistic?

[C]

Yeah, I mean, I think it is. And I'll give you a few different perspectives. You know, one, and I'll give just a US focused example. You know, if you go into an average large commercial industrial building in the U.S. you know, I can almost guarantee you that there is 30 to 40% of the energy use that can be saved. So I think, you know, we're almost sitting on this just reserve of an energy resource that businesses, schools, hospitals in the US and across the globe are not tapping into. And you know, why isn't that happening? I think you Know, it's not happening for a variety of reasons. The one that, that I spend a lot of time thinking about is the way that people are thinking about the investment decisions and energy efficiency. And they're, I mean, to be blunt, they're flat out making the wrong economic decision. Day after day they businesses will look at an energy efficiency upgrade. First off, they'll only think about the utility bill savings, which is a piece of the puzzle. But it doesn't get into the operational expenses avoided, you know, operation and maintenance. It doesn't get into the fact of, okay, what's your opportunity cost if this chiller that you're operating that's 40 years old fails and your business goes down and you lose that revenue? And what are the added emergency repair costs? If that economic full picture is looked at on a holistic basis, These investments are slam dunks and they're just sitting there. So yes, there's been a good clip of efficiency improvements, but I think some of that is technology improvements. But it's not getting at the rational or irrational investment decisions that are happening day after day and country after country as it relates to energy efficiency. So I think it's just a massive potential and as Amy was saying, is one that we can deploy quickly. And you think about, you know, you know, four year wait for gas turbines right now, what are we going to do in the next four years? In the US it really needs to be massive energy efficiency, deploy solar and storage. You know, I'm a believer in the all of the above for energy. But we have the next four years to think about here and there's an energy transition that needs to be made.

[B]

And you know, Ed, in some countries, you know, energy intensity has really dropped. Like take China of course, is always the example everybody uses. But it's true because they've had to modernize a lot of their industry across the entire economy. And now of course, they're exporting a lot of equipment. So you would think almost by fiat we might get more energy efficiency with some of those products coming to market more and more. And then, I mean, we're moving to all these things like robotics and manufacturing and so on and so forth. And one would assume that done correctly, that could be optimized in a way that actually lowers energy use and not just, oh, I'm throwing some more things, I'm plugging in. And so therefore, you know, it's all going up, up, up. It takes some sort of thoughtful planning whether or not you're going to upgrade your equipment at what moment in Time and with what kind of resource.

[A]

Right. I mean, it still doesn't sound like something that is particularly susceptible to being influenced by governments. I wonder, is there more that governments could be doing to drive this acceleration? As you say, it's a lot of individual business investment decisions being taken by businesses and nonprofits and other organizations. Right. The way around the world. Hard to wave a magic wand to make that happen.

[C]

Yeah, there's, you know, I think you're right. I do think there's a lot of elements where there's a private sector decision to make. But you know, some of that varies by country. You know, there's, there's the US and then of course, I think it's different in more emerging markets. I do think, you know, I mentioned the holistic view of the investment decision for energy efficiency by businesses. I think governments, and I'll even take it to utilities and in the US independent system operators can take the same view on what is the benefit of energy efficiency in terms of removing regional grid constraints. And I think there can be pain for energy efficiency that's delivered in the right way. And you know, you see this in some markets like PJM and ISO New England, where there's demand response, which is, let's call it a cousin of energy efficiency. There's payments for energy efficiency itself and that matters. And I'll go to one example of a project that Metris did in Connecticut for a community hospital where that project was a $4 million project and it was in an area where there were real grid constraints and the utility, Eversource was having problems at that point in time and concerns about the grid. We got a million dollar incentive from Eversource that was partially about energy efficiency, but it was really just a smart economic decision that ever source made to get projects done. So I think you could extrapolate that into the policy level as well. So there's, there's a private sector role, but there's, there's, there's more the governments and utilities could do as well.

[B]

Hey, Ed. Also, you know, Bob, sitting in Brazil, a country that's talking about putting in carbon pricing or carbon taxing for heavy industry. If you're going to have to account for your emissions in the industrial sector, which a lot of countries are starting to move to because of the C ban from Europe and other kinds of policies coming in, in many places, Japan and elsewhere, that encourages energy efficiency because you want to use less energy, because energy is the biggest contributor to the emissions of running an industrial enterprise. So I do think there's things that governments can do. California, they're at the cop. I mean, they have a lot of programs that are directed at energy efficiency and emissions incentives or emissions reductions through the carbon pricing mechanism.

[C]

And I was on a panel last night with the California Public Utility Commission commissioner, and in California, there's a loading order where energy efficiency is the first thing that utilities have to think of and as they're making their integrated resource plans to think about how to meet demand. And you know, Ed, I would put that in the same bucket of things that utilities and other governments could. Could think on as well.

[A]

What about the other issue then, my favorite subject, the Jevons Paradox or the Jevons Effect, this idea that as energy efficiency improves, essentially what that's saying is the productivity of your energy use is going up and as a result you can actually end up using more energy, not less, because you're doing more with that energy. This is as it goes back to William jevons of the 19th century. It was absolutely an observable phenomenon with coal. And coal use, of course, soared through the 19th century and has continued to rise in the 20th century through and into the 21st as people were able to do more with it. It's not necessarily something that happens always and everywhere, but is a real issue, isn't it, that it is quite possible to actually improve energy efficiency and end up using more energy as a result?

[B]

I'm going to argue against that, Ed, which the listeners always like when we disagree. But first, Bob, I think you have like a firsthand story about the Jeevan's Paradox. So why don't you go first?

[C]

Yeah, well, maybe it's firsthand secondhand, but, you know, it's kind of just goes to show a little bit of the atmosphere cop, which is so fun. But the, the COP meetings run six days a week and then there's a day off. And so on the day off we went over to the TED Countdown house that was having a book reading and Stanley Robinson, I don't know if you guys are familiar with the book, the Ministry of the Future.

[A]

Oh, yes, I am. Yeah. Kim Stanley Robinson. Yeah, indeed.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Yeah, I've seen him talk. He's wonderful.

[C]

Yeah. No, it, it's hands down the. The best book on climate that I've ever read. I mean, kind of. I read it about four or five months ago and just stopped me in my tracks, you know, just the topics that are covered. And his book talks about the Jevons Paradox. And his book is set roughly, it starts around right now and then it goes out about 30 or 40 years and it gets intertwined with the COP process. But he talks about it and his main point is that you really need policy interventions to help counter that. So areas that, you know, maybe it gets into a carbon tax, you know, that could be one example, but that there's a role of policymakers and interventions that need to be deployed to help solve this. I generally agree with that. But I'm also of the view that I don't know if this is our biggest concern right now. And it maybe gets back to our earlier conversation where on a couple of points, actually energy prices, you know, we're at a time now where we're going to start to see in some parts of the US double digit energy prices that is going to at least stall the Jevons effect. You know, for sure the prices are going up. And then I'll go back to the buildings and the customers that we work with that we go into a facility and they're not saving all the energy they can. You know, they're 30, 40% inefficient. So I hope we get to the point, Ed, that this is going to be a problem. But I think we got a lag and we got a lot of work to do and would love metrics to be part of it. But it's an interesting discussion.

[B]

Well, and Ed, let me just say there's a really big difference between the coal industry in 1865 and what's happening today. I got it. Everybody's talking about with this electricity thing. Global coal's rose 1.5% in 2024, but actually it's been down in China and India this year. And the expectation from International Energy Agency anyway is that it's going to be flat this year. Right. And maybe we might see at some point peak coal in the IEA's view, who knows? But I think really more to the point in these markets where we've suddenly seen a robust response to energy efficiency, such as efficiency and fuel economy. Take the United States market. Vehicle miles travel has gone up in the United States. Gasoline demand has been going down, down, down since 2019. I get it. Covid gave a little momentum, but still to this day, we're still seeing it. Gasoline prices didn't necessarily go down even though demand went down because of the peculiarities of the oil industry and the peculiarities of the geopolitics of oil and some other factors. So there isn't necessarily even a one to one that we can start using a lot less of Something and the price actually goes down, you know, even for coal, because it's a mined commodity. And so there's not necessarily this instantaneous effect. You know, one of the interesting statistics for wasted fuel in the United States, right, there's some giant amount of gasoline and diesel fuel gets wasted every year just from people sitting in congestion. And that interested me because of course, the AI is making steady improvements in that and Texas A and M tracks that. And unfortunately, their last set of data was 2022. But they, I think, honestly, I think I have a better interpretation of their data than they did. What they found was that traffic from automobile commuters was still way down in 2022 and that there was a little more traffic on Saturdays than there had been in the past, which probably gets the remote working, right? People can run out and do their errands on Saturday or I don't know why that would make people do more driving on Saturday, but maybe they feel more relaxed, they don't have to rest on Saturday, who knows? But the interesting thing was that congestion for trucks was up a bit, of course, they say because of E commerce, but that will eventually get eased because the programs for optimizing E commerce is not just that the trucks are going to use better routing because that's already happening since 2022. Market improvements in that. But just all this spying on us through our data means that these companies know what we're going to buy and what week they have that stuff positioned in distribution centers. They have closer in distribution systems. And all of that saves fuel. And so I think as we move in, the AI in this, even with all this E commerce, UC Davis has done some studies that show that maybe you and I driving to the mall is less fuel efficient than Amazon using the algorithm to bring us those same goods. I really believe in the AI in terms of its high potential. And then when you come to the building sector, there's this new interest in geothermal as a building technique, even for retrofitting older buildings. And there's one building I know of, a new building in New York City that really tapped the geothermal potential. And they say that they saved 80% of the electricity they need from the grid by having this system that attaches water flowing through underground for heating and cooling systems and connecting to a rooftop H Vac. So I mean, the savings could be really dramatic. And as Bob says, if in other places we kind of move forward with a positive policy framework. But even in a place like Manhattan, of course they have that law which they've now Backtracking from to electrify buildings. But I mean, the technologies are coming.

[C]

Amy, just jumping in. So you're in Manhattan. One of my favorite things, and I see it every time I go to New York City is the energy efficiency grades that are on the buildings where they have the A, B, C, D. And it's super interesting because you go into a building that you're feeling is a marquee building, you're like, oh, they're a C, what's going on there? And I love that.

[A]

Yeah, I agree. It is really interesting. I like walking up and down our block and buildings that can look identical from the outside can have completely different, you know, one can be an A, one can be a D. And it's not at all obvious just to look at them. And as you say, kind of intriguing to think what is going on there. So look, Bob, I know you've got to go and be on a panel. We should let you go very quickly. Just before we do, just interested in hearing your kind of final thoughts on COP30. How has it left you feeling about the global effort on climate change and the energy transition? Where do you think it's going?

[C]

Yeah, I mean in terms of how it has me feeling energized and optimistic and I really felt that way at all the different cops that I've been at. And I think part of that is one, it's a non stop learning environment which is just so fun to be part of. And I think it also is because you realize, and I day in, day out focused on energy efficiency and sustainable energy upgrades within my narrow world. And that's just one node. There's so many different nodes where people are doing the day to day hard work and getting projects done. Whether that's in renewable energy. Amy was mentioning transportation, there's AI, other fronts, broader biodiversity issues, and just being part of that is uplifting. But it also has a real practical learning value that, you know, I value as an individual. But I get to bring back to my colleagues at Metris and you know, help make our business better. And in terms of some of the outcomes, I, you know, what I'm really focused on is I see a lot more connectivity between the private sector and sub national. So I think we're entering an era of bottom up, you know, projects getting done from the bottom up and not so much the top down federal world. That's certainly specific for the US But I see a lot of those connections being made. Like one interesting connection is energy efficiency and renewable energy. There's a lot of renewable energy. Folks, the Global Renewable Energy alliance is very much involved with the doubling of energy efficiency goal. Why? Because they know that to get the renewable energy that they want to supply and generate, they're going to need energy efficiency to help reduce grid constraints and that's going to be a critical part of it. So you see those connections and then I also think there's going to be a much stronger connection between energy and health. There's a lot of activity looking at cooling as a fundamental right and something that buildings need to provide. So you, you go and you move into a building, you, you want to make sure there's water, you want to make sure there's electricity, you want to make sure there's cooling. And, and that for me, I'm starting to see as a first and, you know, I feel that that has meaning.

[A]

Yeah, that is really fascinating and certainly something I think we might want to follow up on in the future. In terms of, in a warming world, what are going to be the changing needs that people have and that need for cooling clearly going to be very important. Unfortunately, we do have to leave it there, but many thanks, Bob, it's been great talking to you. I hope the rest of COP30 goes well for you.

[C]

No, thank you. And this was a lot of fun. I really appreciate you including me.

[A]

Hello, Ed here. If you like Energy Gang and you want to go deep into the world of climate solutions, I have a recommendation for you. Zero is a podcast about tech tactics and big ideas on climate and energy. It's hosted by our friend Akshat Rathi, who you may remember from the show in the past. He's a senior climate reporter at Bloomberg Green. You'll hear conversations with world leaders such as Mia Motley, billionaire green tech investors including Vinald Khosla, and CEOs of ExxonMobil, Uber, Siemens Energy and many plucky climate startups as well, all grappling with the ups and downs of the energy transition. New episodes drop every Thursday. Search for Zero from Bloomberg wherever you get your podcasts. Got power? At Hythium, we make sure the answer is Always yes. Recognised seven times as a BNF Tier 1 best provider and ranked top two globally for battery shipments. For 2025, Hythium delivers safe, reliable and profitable energy solutions that keep the clean energy transition powering forward. Let green energy benefit all trusted worldwide. Built to last. Discover more at www.Hythium.com and let's talk energy that works for good. Now, one of the other big issues that's being discussed at COP30 is methane. Methane, of course, is the principal constituent of natural gas and it's also a very potent greenhouse gas. And cutting methane leakage from the oil and gas industry can be one of the most effective ways to cut heat emissions quickly. To talk about that, we're joined by Bjorn Otto Sverdrup, who is the chair of the Executive Committee of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, which is a group of 12 leading companies in the industry. And he's also head of another larger group, the Secretariat for the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter. Bjorn Otto has just been in Belem and has just returned, I think, this morning. Hi, Bjorn Otto, how are you?

[D]

I'm fine, thank you. Bondia, as you would say, indeed.

[A]

Welcome to the show. Interested then in hearing about what you've been doing at cop 30? Why did you go?

[D]

This year we were actually invited by the COP 30 presidency, the President himself, Ambassador Delago, to be a partner in organizing the Energy Day, because they of course come to this, that energy is an important part of any climate discussions. I think they were inspired by the work that we've done in OGCI and also later this larger charter, as you mentioned, the Oil and Gas Decommisation Charter, to drive collaboration, be action oriented and to try to implement the pledges of climate action. And as you would know, OGCI is organizing 12 of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, have been doing that for more than 10 years with the aim to be a catalyst for change and to drive decarbonization in this important industry. And we have delivered strong results and I think they wanted to improve, hear about that, to challenge us to look at the gaps, but also to see how could we amplify the progress made to a bigger group.

[A]

And as you say, this bigger group, then the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter that came out of the COP28 in Dubai two years ago, didn't it? Tell us about that body then. What are its goals?

[D]

The ogdc, I think in a short period of time has perhaps become one of the most important industry platforms across any industry working on decarbonization. It brings together 55 companies, all of them some of the largest companies in the countries, with activities in more than 100 countries. These companies covering nearly 40% of the world's daily oil and gas production. So there are more than 6,700 fields. And what unites these companies is that their CEO and the chairman of the board have shared some ambitions. One of them is to get to near zero methane emissions by 2030, including to achieve zero routine flaring by 2030. We also included in this charter that you should set interim ambitions, articulate action plans and report progress. And the important part is collaboration which is at the heart of this initiative, to collaborate, to share among that. So, so de facto this charter has become a very important platform for sharing of practices between international oil and gas companies with state owned companies and national companies, because 2/3 of the signatories are national companies, which typically hasn't been part of any of the initiatives for this industry earlier.

[A]

Right, and that's what you were doing at cop 30, wasn't it? As you say, was reporting on progress. What progress have you been able to show?

[D]

Yeah, as you know, this cop 30 wasn't about. They didn't really encourage new pleasures or new ambitions. The main concern was we're in the action mode. What is happening? Are you able to live up to your promises? What kind of implementation is happening? Can we accelerate actions? And I think here OJCI launched 10 years ago, actually been able to deliver strong progress. So methane emissions are down 62%, flaring is down 72% and overall greenhouse gas emissions from that group of companies are down around 24%. So it's a very strong performance. The charter, of course the OGDC is only 20 months or 2 years. So how we're measuring progress there needs to be somewhat different. So we're measuring progress on OGDC along two dimensions. One is are they making progress on do more companies report? Do companies articulate ambition plans? Are they underpinning those action with action plans? And are they participating and sharing and learning and building capacity to improve? And then of course it takes time to bend the curve. But we are also looking at actual emissions reductions. Right. This year we put at the cop, we launched the second progress report because we aim to share updated status every year. So when we launch this report you see notable progress. Actually more companies are reporting today, 98% of the production from these companies are covered by reports. And we also noted that 30 companies are sharing data with us that are typically not sharing data or releasing public data. More companies are setting ambitions and I think 12 companies have this year set developed action plans on methane emissions reductions that they didn't do last year. I believe the charter itself has been an impetus for change. More than 2,000 engineers have been trained through this program. We have done more than 18 tailor made trainings on the ground, training individual companies to both understand their emissions, but also to learn how to mitigate those actions. One novel thing this year Was that in the status report, all of the companies are reporting their emissions on a uniform reporting framework. That may sound like a trivial thing, but in order to be able to compare and aggregate numbers, we need to be able to distinguish not only different types of apples and pears, but also in this space, I think some have oranges and some have incomplete counting of numbers. So striving to have a uniform reporting is very, very important.

[A]

I have to say, having looked into that question of emissions reporting a little bit, that doesn't sound like a trivial thing at all. As you say, that is clearly a big challenge and actually a real step forward if you are able to put that on a consistent basis.

[D]

And also to add, we should say we make this the journey. Right? Ideally, we would like to have all companies fully understanding their emissions, perfectly reporting them in the same standardized format and driving action. But that's not the world we're in.

[B]

Hey Abjorn, how does the effort, you know, this year at Belem, you have a lot of important government representatives and commentators saying that there needs to be a stronger initiative, Global Initiative on Methane. How does your group help that along or did you intersect on that at all at Belem? How are you seeing that progress?

[D]

It's a great question and I think it's very important to address the topic of methane. I think we engage in discussions around that on multiple fronts. First, I think Ambassador Delago, the co president himself, actually embraced the pragmatic nature, showed this important scene and say, well, look, if we're going to be able to fix methane, this industry needs to be part of discussion. Very important. The World bank was also part of our discussions and they said, it seems that this peer to peer industry wide collaboration is actually working and they're able to deliver results. That was to me encouraging NGOs and others also doing the same. I sense that there is more of a shared view that methane, particularly from oil and gas, seems to be something that is doable. We have the willingness to act upon it. We know how it can be solved. And for the first time ever, we kind of created the platform for that action. So there was quite a lot of promise actually and optimism that instead of inventing new solutions, why don't we try to make some of these things work? And particularly pointing to the lessons from OJCI and how we can use that in the broader framework with ogdc.

[A]

Right, Because I mentioned earlier this global Methane status report, which is something that came out of the UN and at the highest level, the message from that essentially was, yes, progress is being made on reducing methane emissions. But that progress is not fast enough to hit the goals that have been set for cutting emissions by 2030. When you think about the oil and gas industry worldwide, do you think the momentum is still there? I mean, as you say, there has been a lot that's been achieved already. Arguably, perhaps a lot of the low hanging fruit has been picked now. It can get harder to reduce emissions as you go on. You drive them down to these very low levels. And as you say, you're also looking at a much wider group now beyond those big international oil and gas companies that have become the core of this effort in the ogci. Do you think a lot more will be done?

[D]

It's a big question, but just remind us of the price here. So methane emissions from the oil and gas industry is estimated to account for nearly more than 2 billion tons of CO2 emissions. That's equal to 2/3 of all cars in the world. 2/3 of all cars in the world, or twice as much as all the emissions from all airplanes in the world. So it's a very, very big part. I think that for the first time we now have a recognition that this is a true challenge and it's an invisible and odorless gas. There is a recognition that this needs to be addressed. And also through OJCI and the ogdc, you see there is a willingness among the leading companies to address this. Two weeks ago we gathered in Abu Dhabi, 35 CEOs were there and all of them signaled and reiterated to support to the ambition of getting to near zero methane emissions. This moment is that we have the readiness, the willingness and also the ability and the technology to address this. And I'm not sensing actually that there is a slowing down of the momentum, rather there is a continuation of momentum. But it will rely on continued focus, it will rely on continued leadership. And also probably it will rely on governments and NGOs and also the financial community being willing to particularly lend out a helping hand to the emerging economies. Because let's be real, the methane intensity is the highest in some of the emerging economies. And with the most recent report from IEA and others coming out saying that oil and gas will be around, you know, it represents 55% of the world's energy system today. It would be around probably for longer, longer than many would like. So in many ways I think it's become more important to produce responsibly and it's become more important to address methane.

[B]

And Bjorn, how does that interact? You know, we're having a lot of discussion, you know, outside of Bellum and other kinds of forums about the growth in the LNG business. And LNG has typically been a methane intensive business. And so how do you see, is there a division between, you know, gas NOCs and oil NOCs in your efforts or how are you seeing the LNG industry from that perspective?

[D]

Methane is typically a natural gas, right? Is the main product of natural gas. So I think people are coming to the discussion from different views, but all of them are rooting it in a very solid business case, of course. So some are thinking of this as a climate, actually this is something that you need to do. Others are looking to this and say I'm going to address methane because this is what I think is responsible operations. I need to contain my product. And this is not so much about environment, but it's a responsibility you have if you're producing natural gas, including lng. And then again if you're traveling in the developing world, I would say, look, we're an energy starved country, we have no energy to lose and methane leaks is an energy loss on the margin. I have to import all this through expensive lng. We're going to fight all those crack in pipelines, we're going to make sure that our valves are not leaking, hold back all that leakage. So another is again saying, look, this is about protecting the long term value of our product, ensuring the attractiveness of natural gas in the energy mix. I see plenty of different kind of rationales for addressing methane, including that of regulations. But I see since there is a strong drive in the voluntary impact, no real big difference between LNG producers or in the upstream oil and gas well.

[B]

I think the other thing is there's opportunities. You have the controversial IMO carbon tax which is delayed by a year. But there's a whole question about, you know, LNG as a shipping fuel for marine and you know, what's its life cycle analysis and is it, how much of an improvement could it be? And methane slip is a big part of that as well. So a lot at stake.

[D]

Couldn't agree more, Amy. And you know, there's the scale of this opportunity to giga. There's not that many gigaton opportunities out there, right, to reduce emissions. So the OJCI members, the 12 represent around 26% of the world's oil and gas production. But the share of methane is probably around 2% because they've been able to bring those emissions down in a very short period of time. And I think it's the combination of scale, the proof Point that it is possible to reduce it and also now the willingness of the broader industry to engage with so many leading companies. To me it's a bit of. I choose to be quite optimistic around this that it is possible to make a big, big inroad into reducing methane emissions over the next 60 months. Because the 60 months is what we have until 2030.

[B]

And what do you think in terms of, I mean has the fact that we now have satellite technology where independent groups can, you know, I know California just released, one of the California universities just released a study from satellites. Is that putting extra pressure on the pace and the speed, you know, sort of coming down the road? Is there AI improvements that make it easier to do it faster? I mean, give us a little perspective on that.

[D]

Yeah, absolutely. So as I said, methane is a immiscible gas. You cannot smell it. And it's been a gas maybe that maybe many didn't have on the top of their mind in discussions. And also I think even you need to say the industry design equipment that only would work with methane leaks such as flaring or pneumatic valves where you have bleed off of natural gas. The world is so different now because you can see it as you said, through satellites, airplanes, drones, we ourselves have invested heavily into to help develop those technologies and deployed large scale satellite campaigns also in emerging economies. And it's amazing what you can do with the satellite pictures and AI to basically recreate a plume. And what we have been doing is to take that sophisticated technology into remote areas. Be that in Algeria, Egypt, Kazakhstan, most recently knocking on the door and saying hey, have you seen these pictures from your site? Are you willing to fix it or are you able to fix it? The amazing thing that when you have those data, many companies are unaware and confronted with the data, they welcome the view and they're able to mitigate those emissions in a fairly short period of time. Why I come to believe that many plant managers would like to run a well run plant and it's a safety risk and often it's fairly quick fix. It could be a flare that's normally there for safety that is not lit. You know, blowing leaks out there is a valve that's open that you're unaware of. This sounds like trivial things, but it's. Unfortunately it's still happening in many places.

[A]

Yeah, that is a fantastic point about advances in technology and how they are making it possible to cut emissions in all kinds of new ways and are going to be clearly a very important part of the solution.

[C]

When I first started doing this and I would talk about climate change. It was like another subject like geology, hydrology, meteorology, and it was well received. And then at some point it got politicized.

[A]

What made climate change political was the.

[B]

Most comprehensive, comprehensive, longest running propaganda campaign in US History. I'm Amy Westervelt, the host of Drilled, a True Crime podcast about climate change. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

So unfortunately we have to leave it there, but many thanks. B. Otto, it's been great talking to you.

[D]

Thank you. Thanks.

[B]

Many thanks to you, Amy, Ed, great to be here.

[A]

Thanks again to Bob Hinkle. It's been great talking to you all. Thanks to our producers, Stuart Duffy, Toby Biggins, Gilchrist and Dan Cottrell. And above all, many thanks to all of you for listening. We really do value your feedback, so please keep that coming. And we'll be back soon when we'll be rounding up the outcomes from COP30 and weighing up what the talks might mean for the future of energy. Until then, good.