Podcast Summary – Energy Gang: "What happened in COP30’s first week? Support for energy efficiency and a status report on methane show which climate initiatives are still making progress"

Date: November 19, 2025
Host: Ed Crooks (Wood Mackenzie)
Guests:

• Amy Myers Jaffe (NYU)
• Bob Hinkle (Metris Energy)
• Bjorn Otto Sverdrup (Oil and Gas Climate Initiative)

Overview

This episode of Energy Gang provides a live update from COP30 in Belem, Brazil, focusing on two major topics: the global push for energy efficiency and the ongoing efforts to reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. Host Ed Crooks is joined by Amy Myers Jaffe, Bob Hinkle (live from COP30), and later in the show Bjorn Otto Sverdrup, to discuss sectoral initiatives, business involvement, and the evolving policy landscape for climate action.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Atmosphere and Stakeholder Presence at COP30

• COP30’s location in Belem: Difficult logistics resulted in lighter US business presence, but strong sub-national and private sector engagement, especially from states like California.
  • "California, of course, has had a really big presence here... California is the fourth largest economy in the world." – Bob Hinkle [07:22]
• Compared to previous COPs: Less overt representation from oil and gas industry and global finance, and a shift towards ‘bottom-up’ projects and practical business engagement.

2. Energy Efficiency: From Pledge to Implementation

• Global context: At COP28, nations pledged to double the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030 (from ~2% to 4% annually). COP30 discussions focus on how to achieve this.

• Business coalition: Over 180 US businesses, including Metris Energy, signed a letter supporting the pledge.

  • "Energy efficiency on its own can account for over 40% of the emission reductions that are needed to hit the Paris Agreement." – Bob Hinkle [10:36]

• Drivers and Barriers:

  • Efficiency is attractive whether or not climate is a corporate priority—it saves money and boosts equipment resilience.
    • "Very few of our projects are getting done because someone is saving on their energy bill... It's about resiliency of equipment and it's also about health." – Bob Hinkle [12:53]
  • Grid resilience and affordability are increasingly important, especially with anticipated demand growth from AI, electrification, and industrial expansion.
  • Deployment speed is a key asset, especially as energy demand is projected to jump 3–4% annually until 2040.
    • "We're now expecting that to jump 3 to 4% a year, doubling by the time we get to 2040." – Bob Hinkle [13:12]

• AI as an Efficiency Enabler:

  • AI has potential to drive dramatic efficiency gains by predicting equipment failures, optimizing building operations, and reducing wasted fuel.
    • "The numbers that you can crank out of AI for efficiency across a wide number of sectors... is very high." – Amy Myers Jaffe [15:07]

• Is Doubling Efficiency Realistic?

  • Ed Crooks expresses skepticism: Historically, global energy efficiency improvements rarely exceed 2% annually.
  • Bob Hinkle argues substantial untapped potential exists, especially in older buildings and systems, if broader investment perspectives and incentives are applied.
    • "If that economic full picture is looked at on a holistic basis, These investments are slam dunks..." – Bob Hinkle [18:14]
  • Policy can play a greater role, such as direct utility/market incentives, carbon pricing, and efficiency-first mandates (e.g., California's integrated resource planning).
    • "In California, there's a loading order where energy efficiency is the first thing that utilities have to think of..." – Bob Hinkle [24:34]

• Jevons Paradox ("Rebound Effect"):

  • Ed Crooks asks if increased efficiency could paradoxically cause higher total energy use.
  • Bob Hinkle and Amy Myers Jaffe push back, noting today’s energy pricing, policy, and technology context is very different.
    • "There isn't necessarily even a one to one that we can start using a lot less of something and the price actually goes down..." – Amy Myers Jaffe [28:04]
  • Amy gives tangible examples such as vehicle miles, AI-optimized building management, and dramatic savings with new technologies like geothermal systems.

• Anecdotes & Memorable Moments:

  • NYC’s building energy grades ("A" to "D") spark discussion about the visibility of efficiency and its effects on local decision-making [32:24].

3. Status Update: Methane Emissions in Oil & Gas

• Guest: Bjorn Otto Sverdrup, Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI), and the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC).

• COP30 Focus: Not about new pledges but about implementation, delivery, and transparency.

• OGCI Results:

  • Methane emissions down 62%, flaring down 72%, overall GHGs down 24% among member companies in the past decade [40:52].
  • New charter (OGDC) brings together 55 companies over 100 countries, covering nearly 40% of global oil & gas production.

• Key advances:

  • Reporting and transparency—98% of charter company production now covered by reports, with increasing uniformity in metrics.
  • Over 2,000 engineers trained and tailored methane abatement projects in high-intensity regions.
  • "This charter has become a very important platform for sharing of practices between international oil and gas companies with state owned companies..." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [39:11]

• Role of Technology:

  • Methane is invisible and odorless, but new satellite and AI-driven detection is transforming monitoring and response.
    • "It's amazing what you can do with the satellite pictures and AI to basically recreate a plume." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [52:39]
  • Direct approaches with data are leading to rapid mitigation, even in regions previously hard to engage.

• Policy & Market Relevance:

  • Momentum must be maintained with policy, financing, and peer-to-peer pressure—especially in emerging economies.
  • "With the most recent report from IEA... oil and gas will be around... for longer than many would like. So in many ways I think it's become more important to produce responsibly and... address methane." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [46:56]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On US Stakeholder Mosaic at COP30:
  • "The US is really, you know, a mosaic of a lot broader groups and many of them are here." – Bob Hinkle [07:22]
• On AI’s Potential:
  • "The AI can actually help them with energy efficiency, have them know when their equipment is going to fail before it fails, and all kinds of applications..." – Amy Myers Jaffe [15:07]
• On Business Motives for Efficiency:
  • "Very few of our projects are getting done because someone is saving on their energy bill..." – Bob Hinkle [12:53]
• On Methane Reporting Progress:
  • "98% of the production from these companies are covered by reports... 30 companies are sharing data with us that are typically not sharing data or releasing public data." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [41:57]
• On Technology Transforming Methane Mitigation:
  • "With the satellite pictures and AI to basically recreate a plume... many companies are unaware and confronted with the data, they welcome the view and they're able to mitigate those emissions in a fairly short period of time." – Bjorn Otto Sverdrup [52:39]
• On the Mood at COP30:
  • "How has [COP30] left you feeling about the global effort on climate change...?" – Ed Crooks
  • "Energized and optimistic... there's so many different nodes where people are doing the day to day hard work and getting projects done." – Bob Hinkle [33:25]

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------| | Opening & US presence at COP30 | 00:00–08:07 | | Oil/gas industry and finance at COP30 | 08:07–09:50 | | Business energy efficiency letter/pledge | 09:50–11:34 | | Efficiency: business drivers, resiliency | 11:34–16:49 | | The potential and limits of energy efficiency | 16:49–25:47 | | Jevons Paradox Debate | 25:47–32:24 | | Methane initiatives: OGCI, OGDC | 38:01–44:20 | | Methane reduction technology & momentum | 44:20–54:31 | | Reflections & closing thoughts on COP30 | 33:25–35:46, 54:31–end |

Conclusion

The first week of COP30 showcased continued progress in both sectoral action and technology-enabled emissions abatement. Despite logistical challenges, the US business and sub-national presence remains strong, and the global momentum for practical, measurable advances—especially in energy efficiency and methane reduction—is growing. With the deployment of AI, greater data transparency, and support for local initiative, the transition is shifting from high-level pledges to local implementation and collaborative accountability.

Overall tone: Candid, forward-looking, practical optimism from all speakers, tempered by awareness of structural, market, and policy hurdles ahead.

For more info, visit Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Gang or the respective organizations mentioned in the episode.