The paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz is a geopolitical iceberg threatening global manufacturing, with ripple effects crippling supply chains now and in the longer term. Prof. Shardul Phadnis, Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management at the Asia School of Business unpacks the implications, risks and why boards must treat supply chain resilience as a capital asset.

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The Hormuz Shockwave: How disruptions at this critical choke point severely affect non-energy manufacturing by restricting crude oil feedstocks used for plastics, coolants, and paints.
The Ripple Effect: Why missing a single weekly ocean port call can severely disrupt asset-heavy chemical plants that schedule their production campaigns months in advance.
Rapid Exposure Analysis: The critical steps mid-tier manufacturers must take to map tier-1 supplier manufacturing locations, identify shipping vulnerabilities, and navigate shifting trade policies.
The Death of Traditional Forecasting: Why major geopolitical disruptions violate the core assumptions of probabilistic forecasting, forcing supply chains to abandon historical data for safety stock planning.
AI-Powered Scenario Planning: How AI accelerates scenario creation from several months to just one or two weeks, shifting its application from long-term strategy to 6-month tactical planning.
Valuing Resilience as an Asset: Why treating adaptability as a capital asset, much like Toyota stockpiling a six-month supply of chips after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, is logically necessary despite the tension it creates with short-term quarterly profits.

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Hormuz Shockwave: Expect Prices to Rise