Brussels Playbook Podcast

Episode Title: A reckoning for Europe’s center left

Date: March 27, 2026
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO, EU Confidential)
Guests:

• Cléa Kolker (Paris)
• James Angelos (Berlin)
• Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur (In studio/Spain)
• Alexander Stubb (President of Finland – interview segment, with Tim Ross)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the mounting challenges faced by Europe's center left in the wake of recent elections across Denmark, France, Germany, and Spain. The discussion centers on electoral performances, the deeper existential crisis facing social democratic parties, policy positions (with a focus on migration and economic inequality), and the rise of both the far right and the radical left. Additionally, the episode features an in-depth interview with Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, offering a geopolitical view on the economic and security ramifications of the Iran war.

1. Setting the Scene: Europe's Center Left Under Pressure

[00:41]

• Recent European Elections have revealed troubling trends for the center left, juxtaposing minor setbacks for the far right with a "slow motion freefall" among social democrats.
• Key Question: Is the center left still a serious political force with a recognizable vision, or have the main contests shifted to the right—and even to the extremes?

QUOTE:

• “The slow motion freefall of Europe’s center left in Danish elections. Yes, Socialist Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen won, but her party shrank sharply to its lowest point in a century.” — Sarah Wheaton [01:21]

2. Denmark: From "Trump Bump" to Historic Lows

[02:56]

• Election Recap: PM Mette Fredriksen’s Social Democrats saw their worst result since 1903, despite a temporary poll bump during the Greenland crisis (“the Trump bump”).
• Key Drivers:
  • Voters focused on domestic discontent, particularly regarding the centrist government’s response to quality of life.
  • The Social Democrats’ hard line on migration did not stave off voter erosion; both the far right and far left gained.
• Broader Sentiment:
  • “There's this general feeling that they have not responded to the needs of the public, especially when it comes to quality of life.” — Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur [03:32]
• Trend: Dissatisfaction with conventional parties; fragmentation of historic voter base.

3. France: Gains in Cities, Crisis in the Countryside

[04:07]

• Far Right Falters in Big Cities:
  • National Rally failed to win Marseille and Toulon; only modest gains in smaller cities.
• City-Left Divide:
  • Socialists maintain Paris (25 years running), and Marseille, but this masks a national trend: countryside and much of France are tilting to the right.
• Left in Disarray:
  • The center left is caught between a combative hard left (France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon) and a crowded field of potential presidential candidates.
  • “There are too many candidates at the moment...there’s no way of choosing which candidate to run.” — Cléa Kolker [07:23]
• Challenge for 2027:
  • Need to resolve fractious alliances and respond to hard left’s pugnacious style and messaging.

Memorable Moment:

• “Politicians often mention this, that what's said in Paris is not what's said in...small villages in France. And I think that political disconnect is something that came alive in these local elections.” — Cléa Kolker [06:53]

4. Germany: Structural Decline of the SPD

[08:52]

• SPD’s Slide:
  • Latest results in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg: historic lows, falling below 6% in one case, and loss of a decades-long premiership.
• Coalition Dilemmas:
  • Despite catastrophic electoral outcomes, the SPD ends up in government with the CDU—reflecting "coalition math" to keep out the far right but losing distinctiveness.
• Voter Base Erosion:
  • Legacy working-class union roots have faded due to deindustrialization; East Germany never integrated the SPD as a "Volkspartei."
• Far Right Benefits:
  • Voters dissatisfied with indistinct centrist coalitions turn to AfD, which has doubled its vote share in several regions.

QUOTE:

• “As these parties are forced to govern together...they have a hard time distinguishing themselves from the CDU or from the center right. This has caused some voters to defect to Die Linke...but [they are] also...lost as the contest has moved from the centrists to the far right.” — James Angelos [11:22]

5. Spain: A Center Left Outlier?

[12:38]

• Pedro Sánchez’s Model:
  • Unlike Denmark and Germany, Spain’s center left remains relatively assertive, credited to Sánchez’s partnership with the far left and policies such as universal basic income, rent protections, and social investment.
• Sustained Voter Loyalty:
  • Sánchez’s base has remained faithful, in contrast to other countries’ center-left parties.
• Uncertain Future:
  • The coalition’s stability may yet be tested in upcoming elections as far left support wanes.

QUOTE:

• “[Spain’s Socialists] have really tried to put in place policies that...are transformative and headed in the direction of the progressive policies they believe in.” — Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur [21:24]

6. Diagnosis: Center Left’s Identity Crisis

[14:20]

• Critique from Within:
  • Rodrigo Vaz in Social Europe accuses social democratic parties of avoiding bold stances (“caution over conviction”), leading to voter disengagement.
• Guest Commentary:
  • Broad agreement that centrist social democrats have become too indistinguishable from center-right rivals, failing to articulate a compelling vision and losing historic voter coalitions.
  • “We are offering a kind of mishmash of stuff that's been used again and used in campaigns before. And we really need to work on our project before we launch into campaigns...” — Cléa Kolker [16:08]
  • “A complaint that we hear across Europe is that [the center left] are increasingly hard to differentiate from the center right.” — Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur [17:15]

7. The Migration Conundrum

[17:45]

• Diverging Approaches:
  • Denmark’s Social Democrats adopted a hardline stance, while Spain’s Socialists emphasize economic necessity and a science-based approach to migration.
• Germany:
  • SPD tried to shift right on migration, but conservative parties simply outflanked them, to limited political benefit.
• No Unified Center Left Stance:
  • Internal ideological contradictions and divergent electoral realities hinder coherence.

QUOTE:

• “Spain’s position is totally different...the government has actually released this report...figuring out what Spain would look like if they cut down dramatically on migration. And the picture...is one that is much poorer, that is not growing, that is really struggling in key sectors like agriculture.” — Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur [18:24]

8. Is the Center Left Collapsing, or Just Reshaping?

[19:46]

• Right’s Setbacks aren’t a Left Revival:

  • Recent far-right stumbles (Meloni losing referendum in Italy, National Rally hitting limits in France) don’t necessarily signal a center-left resurgence.

• Analysis:

  • The center left is neither in freefall nor poised for resurgence; decline is gradual but clear, with some open opportunities, especially in places with strong urban bases or policy innovation.
  • “It's not a story of utter decline all at once. It's more a story of over time...this undeniable erosion of the power of a once very powerful force.” — James Angelos [20:24]

• Opportunity and Challenge in France:

  • “If [the French left] want to succeed, there will have to be some sort of reconciliation of [moderate and hard left], which right now seems very, very difficult.” — Cléa Kolker [22:52]

9. Notable Policy Proposals

[23:04]

• Denmark’s Fredriksen, possibly inspired by France’s left, proposed a 5% tax on wealth above EUR 2.3 million.

10. Interview: President Alexander Stubb on Geopolitical Risks and Economic Fallout

[25:15+]
Host: Tim Ross

Key Topics:

• The Iran War and Risk of Global Recession

  • Warning: Stubb cautions current instability could “spiral further than many expectations,” possibly exceeding the economic blow of COVID if an oil crisis hits.
  • “This could be worse than COVID...it could be a self-inflicted global recession.” — Alexander Stubb [34:27]

• US-EU Relations and Global Order

  • New Alliances: Stubb theorizes about a "rectangle of power," with a less cohesive "West" and the rising centrality of the Global South.
  • “We're probably seeing not a rupture, but a rift in the transatlantic partnership.” — Alexander Stubb [30:08]
  • On US policy: “MAGA, which is ideological...and then you have America First...the Western Hemisphere comes first, the Indo Pacific second, Europe third...” [29:23]
  • Despite differences, Stubb continues to see defense, minerals, and technology as areas of EU-US cooperation.

• Trump, Peace, and Escalation Risks

  • Stubb credits Trump’s “peace inclination,” but acknowledges the war in Iran changes everything. He refuses to speculate about a Third World War but stresses urgent need for international rules.
  • “When you don't have international rules and norms guiding our behavior, conflict is always behind the corner. It's part of human nature, I'm afraid.” [32:27]

• Memorable Moments:

  • On leadership friendships: “We call each other, message quite frequently, we write to each other...and then we can go out on an occasional run as well, which is nice.” (About Mark Carney) [28:00]

11. Quotes & Timestamps

| Quote | Speaker | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------------| | “The slow motion freefall of Europe’s center left...” | Sarah Wheaton | 01:21 | | “There's this general feeling...they have not responded to the needs...” | Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur | 03:32 | | “Politicians often mention this, that what's said in Paris...” | Cléa Kolker | 06:53 | | “There are too many candidates at the moment...” | Cléa Kolker | 07:23 | | “As these parties are forced to govern together...they have a hard time...” | James Angelos | 11:22 | | “We are offering a kind of mishmash of stuff that's been used again...” | Cléa Kolker | 16:08 | | “A complaint that we hear across Europe is that...hard to differentiate...” | Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur | 17:15 | | “Spain’s position is totally different...” | Aitor Hernandez Morales Itur | 18:24 | | “It's not a story of utter decline all at once...” | James Angelos | 20:24 | | “If [the French left] want to succeed, there will have to be some...” | Cléa Kolker | 22:52 | | “We're probably seeing not a rupture, but a rift in the transatlantic...” | Alexander Stubb | 30:08 | | “This could be worse than COVID...a self-inflicted global recession.” | Alexander Stubb | 34:27 |

12. Conclusion & Outlook

• The European center left stands at a crossroads, threatened by an identity vacuum as both the radical left and far right sharpen their messages and grow their bases.
• Some urban or policy innovation holds promise, but old strategies are failing, especially in a world rocked by populism, economic anxiety, and migration debates.
• On the global stage, Europe’s future hangs on new alignments and its response to economic and security shocks, as highlighted by President Stubb’s warnings of potential global recession and geopolitical realignment.

Note: All timestamps refer to content segments. Ads, intro, and outro sections have been omitted.