A 'Super Tuesday' for a bigger EU

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast: "A 'Super Tuesday' for a Bigger EU"

POLITICO | July 14, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich; Guest: Sarah Wheaton

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Episode Overview

This episode of the Brussels Playbook Podcast brings listeners inside a pivotal day for the European Union as the Irish Presidency hosts a "Super Tuesday" for EU enlargement. The discussion hinges on significant steps forward for accession hopefuls (Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova), a sweeping review of the EU Commission’s workplace practices, and a stark new report on Europe’s declining birthrate and its demographic future. True to the Playbook spirit, Zoya and Sarah unpack complex institutional debates with clarity, humor, and practical insight, spotlighting the real-world ramifications for Brussels and beyond.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. "Super Tuesday" for EU Enlargement

Segments: [00:15] – [06:42]

• What’s Happening:
  The General Affairs Council convenes in Brussels, overseen by Ireland’s EU presidency. Four countries—Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova—hold intergovernmental accession conferences, marking unprecedented simultaneous progress toward EU membership.

• How Accession Works:

  • EU accession requires negotiating and implementing standards across 33 policy chapters, grouped into six thematic clusters.
  • Progression is methodical—each closed chapter signals EU acceptance of a candidate country’s reforms in that area.
  • Zoya: "There are 33 chapters that a country has to go through... grouped together in these clusters... opening a cluster means, like, starting negotiations on each of those individual chapters and having to do all of this homework that the EU sets." [01:53]

• Country-by-Country Progress:

  • Montenegro:
    • Seen as today’s “frontrunner,” likely to close two more chapters.
    • Goal: Complete negotiations by year-end; join EU in 2028.
    • Zoya: "My sources tell me that they actually think that Montenegro is on track potentially to meet this deadline." [03:01]
  • Albania:
    • Progress on first three chapters (science, education, external trade) but faces internal controversy and protests.
    • PM Edi Rama’s pragmatic approach: open to “stepped membership” without full veto powers initially.
    • Zoya: "He's very keen to get Albania into the EU. I think this is quite a key priority for him." [03:32]
  • Ukraine & Moldova:
    • Both beginning negotiations on cluster six (external relations: trade, security, defense), now at 7 of 33 chapters.
    • Notably, political symbolism outweighs technical progress at this stage; still early in the process.
    • Quote (Taras Kochka, Ukraine’s Deputy PM for European Integration):
      "I had this feeling of IGC as a liturgy, just like a mass in clerical meaning. And this is really very honorable and very important process. And of course, we want to... have our remaining four clusters... as soon as possible." [05:34]

• Political & Geopolitical Dynamics:

  • France and Germany endorse enlargement for geopolitical stability but prefer gradual integration, not immediate full membership.
  • Ukrainian accession faces ongoing skepticism from member states (esp. Poland, due to trade and historical disputes).
    • Sarah: "Critics worry [gradual integration] could create kind of a permanent EU waiting room." [05:58]
  • Officials reiterate: Procedural progress doesn’t mean imminent membership—strict conditions remain.

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2. Major Workplace Overhaul at the European Commission

Segments: [06:42] – [11:16]

• Overview:

  • The Commission is undergoing its first major personnel and workplace review in 20 years, with recommendations due by year's end and potential implementation starting in 2027.
    • Zoya: "This overhaul... launched last year. The final recommendations are due to be presented at the end of this year..." [07:04]
  • Led by a "high-level reflection group" under Catherine Day—controversial for being "old guard."

• Key Proposed Reforms (from a 400-page report):

  • Move more officials from Brussels into national capitals to foster closer ties with member states.
  • Significantly speed up the glacial hiring process (currently can take 2–3 years).
    • Zoya: "It can take two to three years from the moment of application to someone actually getting their first paycheck." [09:20]
  • Accelerate leadership promotions in anticipation of a wave of retirements.
  • Prepare the institution to be "AI ready."
  • Increased staff: Plans to add 1,500 staff to the Commission, 1,000+ to other EU bodies.

• Employee Concerns:

  • Staff feel under-consulted and wary of leadership by those who orchestrated past unpopular reforms.
    • Reforms in 2014 raised pension ages, increased the work week, and led to job dissatisfaction and more sick days.
    • Zoya jokes: "It's this high-level reflection group. Sounds kind of like a yoga class, but whatever." [09:33]
  • However, public perception is that Commission jobs remain enviable.
    • Sarah: "Pretty much everybody else in Brussels sees these Commission jobs as being pretty cushy. We're all, we're all working 40 hours at least." [10:19]

• Process Outlook:

  • More consultations to come; the next group meeting is September 2.
  • Ursula von der Leyen to receive final recommendations by year’s end.

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3. Europe’s Demographic Time Bomb

Segments: [11:33] – [14:50]

• New Commission Report, Striking Statistics:

  • Births in Europe have nearly halved since the 1960s:
    • 1964: 6.8 million
    • 2024: 3.5 million
    • Zoya: "So it's astonishing, almost half the number of births." [11:33]

• Consequences & Projections:

  • Europe is "graying, aging, and shrinking":
    • Peak population forecast for 2029; decline starting thereafter.
    • EU could fall below 400 million by 2100 (comparable to 1970s levels).
    • By 2100, 15% of Europeans will be over 80 (vs. 6% today).
      • Sarah: "A baby born in the EU today can expect to live to roughly 81 and a half. By the end of the century, life expectancy could pass 90 for women and 86 for men." [12:21]

• Policy Responses:

  • Migration will be increasingly crucial for supporting the workforce and elderly care.
  • Focus on "the longevity economy": need for care workers, adaptable healthcare, accessible housing, and technology for the aged.
  • EU Commissioner for Demography, Dubravka Šuica, recommends:
    • Creation of a European Agency for Demography.
    • Policy interventions to raise birthrates and employment, citing Sweden’s relative success.

• Larger EU Strategy:

  • Demographics directly intersect with debates over European competitiveness and the rationale for enlargement.

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4. Notable Listener Feedback & Lighthearted Moments

Segments: [14:50] – [16:25]

• Listener Voice Note:

  • Carolina from Portugal shares that she listens “almost religiously” every morning—highlighting the value of the show's humor and clarity.
    • Carolina: "This is the best way to be in touch with any policy and Brussels related developments… because of the humoristic tone that is very inherent to Politico." [14:57]
  • She wins a POLITICO tote bag for her engagement.

• In-Jokes and Banter:

  • Zoya and Sarah quip about the Commission reforms ("high-level reflection group" being like a yoga class).
  • A birthday shout-out to EPP boss Manfred Weber ("He can have his cake and eat it too"). [16:25]

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Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• "Four countries are going to move a little closer to joining the EU on the same day."
  — Sarah Wheaton [01:28]

• “I had this feeling of IGC as a liturgy, just like a mass in clerical meaning. And this is really very honorable and very important process.”
  — Taras Kochka, Deputy PM of Ukraine [05:34]

• “Critics worry [‘gradual integration’] could create kind of a permanent EU waiting room.”
  — Sarah Wheaton [05:58]

• “Europe is basically graying, aging and shrinking. The population is shrinking.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich [12:49]

• "A baby born in the EU today can expect to live to roughly 81 and a half."
  — Sarah Wheaton [12:21]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Super Tuesday: EU Enlargement | 00:15–06:42 | | Commission Workplace Overhaul | 06:42–11:16 | | EU Demographic Challenges & New Report | 11:33–14:50 | | Listener Feedback & Lighthearted Moments | 14:50–16:25 |

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a brisk yet comprehensive snapshot of the challenges and power shifts defining Brussels this week: landmark progress for four aspiring member states, institutional soul-searching within the Commission, and the long shadow of demographic change. With clarity and playfulness, Zoya and Sarah unpick deep currents in EU politics and policy—making this “Super Tuesday” both a news event and a metaphor for Europe’s search for renewal.

Transcript

[Dasha Burns]

Do you want to understand the power brokers in Washington? I'm Dasha Burns, Politico's White House bureau chief and host of the Conversation. Every week, I sit down with the most compelling voices driving this political Moment. Subscribe on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Good morning. It's Tuesday, July 14, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is expansive as the Irish presidency kicks off its Super Tuesday for enlargement. Also on the pod, we take a look at the Commission's big workplace overhaul. And Europeans are living longer but having fewer babies. We unpack the EU's new demographics report. I'm Zoya Shevtolovic, and with me today is one of our policy editors, Sarah Wheaton. Hey, Sarah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Hey, Zoya. Good to be here. You know, people in the EU always complain about, like, American Indian influence on the language and stuff, but, like, Super Tuesday is an American term that the Irish have purely of their own devices.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Well, listen, there are close ties between the Americans and the Irish, so that's true. They're just taken. Taken one from their friends across the pond. All right, Sarah, let's get straight to it. It's the General Affairs Council today in Brussels. That's the meeting of all of the European affairs ministers. And they're going to be holding on the sidelines what the Irish presidency is calling Super Tuesday. It's basically a big day for enlargement, where there's going to be progr, Ukraine, on Moldova, on Albania and on Montenegro.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Exactly. There are four separate accession conferences. The technical term is intergovernmental conferences, or igc. They're basically meetings where the progress is formally recorded. Irish Europe Minister Thomas Byrne will chair them. And he's been saying, look, this is the biggest set of accession meetings ever. That's why they're calling it Super Tuesday. And the bottom line is that four countries are going to move a little closer to joining the EU on the same day.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah, we're going to talk about some technical stuff. So let's just lay it out. It's a bit geeky, but let's do it. There are 33 chapters that a country has to go through and basically do a bunch of reform work on in order to join the eu. And they're grouped together in these clusters that are thematically linked with one another. There are six clusters. And basically opening a cluster means, like, starting negotiations on each of those individual chapters and having to do all of this homework that the EU sets. So there are rule of law things that you have to do. Reforms on your democratic system. I mean, everything. Health care, transport, there's all sorts of stuff.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Trade, education.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah, absolutely. It's a lot of work that you've got to get through. And then when you close a chapter, you don't close clusters, you close chapters. When you close a chapter, it's the EU saying, yep, you've done enough, you now meet the EU minimum standard to be able to enter the block.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. And these four countries, you know, they're all meeting, it's a very exciting moment, but they're. They're definitely not at the same point in the race. We should clarify. But Montenegro is the front runner today. It's expected to close two more chapters and it's goal is to finish negotiations this year and join the EU in 2028. That's, like almost here.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah. Look, I've been speaking with people for months about Montenegro's progress and I can tell you, at the very highest levels, my sources tell me that they actually think that Montenegro is on track potentially to meet this deadline.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, I will be really curious to see if Albania can meet its sort of hoped deadline. That country is on track to close its first three chapters today. They cover science, education and external trade. And Toronto is hoping to finish negotiations by 2027 and join by 2030.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah. So with Albania, it's a little bit more controversial because as we've spoken about again on the POD before, there have been these protests that have been hitting the government run by Prime Minister Eddie Rama. He's an interesting fellow, very charismatic, very pragmatic, and he sort of said to the eu, look, I'll do whatever you need me to do, alb, Albania will take some sort of stepped membership where maybe we don't have veto power. If your issue is with our veto power. He's very keen to get Albania into the eu. I think this is quite a key priority for him. But whether Albania makes it in this sort of timeframe is a little bit more dependent on how things go.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And then the other two, Ukraine and Moldova, of course, are different and much more geopolitical story. Both countries will open the cluster on external relations.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

That's cluster six.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Cluster six, that includes trade, foreign policy, security and defense. This takes them to seven chapters open out of 33. So they're closer to the beginning than the end. But, you know, every time they move forward, it's an important political signal.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah. I actually spoke with the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine for European Integration, Taras Kochka, yesterday, and he told me that while the technical work on these Clusters has been done because, you know, Ukraine has been working on its homework for two years. It was stuck in the EU waiting room. It was being blocked by Victor or Barnes, Hungary, but it was starting to do the work anyway. But he said, you know, even though they are not getting to open all of the clusters or six clusters, which is what they had hoped to do by this point in time, he said, nonetheless, they're going to be really pushing and trying to get people to agree that they're ready to open all those clusters, and they still hope to do more before the summer break happens. And he spoke to me about how he feels about the opening of cluster six for Ukraine, which is formally going to be happening today at this intergovernmental conference. And he actually ended up comparing it to a mass of all things. Minister, Ukraine is about to open the sixth cluster for accession negotiations. Can you tell me how does it feel to be making this quite momentous step?

[Taras Kochka]

I had this feeling of IGC as a liturgy, just like a mess in clerical meaning. And this is really very honorable and very important process. And of course, we want to, for our remaining four clusters, this IGC happens as soon as possible. And so that's why you want this to be continued and as fast as possible.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And I mean, look, you know, Ukraine is. Is ready to convert, but we are not seeing all the EU countries totally on board with that yet. But it is shifting. You know, France and Germany have said that enlargement is a geopolitical necessity, but they're also saying we want more gradual integration rather than full members a bit. What, what Zoya, you were saying. Eddie Rama of Albania is open to, but other countries are less in favor of that, and critics worry it could create kind of a permanent EU waiting room. Also, you know, with regard to Ukraine, still pretty awkward with Poland. They still have tensions over agriculture, historical disputes. That is making it more complicated for Kiev, even at the moment that Hungary is no longer being such an obstacle.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah, I mean, look, it's not going to be a walk in the park for Ukraine. And when you talk to officials involved in accession negotiations, they say, look, opening a cluster is nowhere near the same thing as saying you're ready to join the eu. So they're all saying, look, don't worry. Those countries that are a bit confronted by the idea of Ukraine, a really large country, joining super soon, they're saying, look, they have to do the homework. We're not saying we're letting them in before they're ready. It's a work in progress. But at the very least there is progress now. Sarah, Story two today, it's about a big old shake up at the commission. We've got a story from our colleague Sebastian Satyevich and Gerardo Fortuna, and they report that the EU executive is going to be going through kind of the first major workplace review in two decades. This overhaul. It was launched last year. The final recommendations are due to be presented at the end of this year and then they're planning to implement them as early as 2027. So it's kind of interesting.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. And I mean, the first set of proposed reforms were unveiled on Monday. They were laid out in a 400 page report from Peter Serafin.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Oh, I'm sure you've read every single one of those pages.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I know, exactly. You know, I haven't, but we've been hearing from some of the 30,000 commission staff who heard about it during a virtual meeting and they have some thoughts.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Do they? Oh, who would have thought? Well, so some of the proposals that were in that paper, in that 400 page report. So firstly, they want to move more officials from Brussels to EU capitals. The idea is basically, you know, you need to deepen cooperation with member countries and kind of get out there. So that's part of it. Speeding up hiring. That's a big one. They really want to be able to do it more quickly. And I think anyone who's been on the receiving end of a commission recruitment process would probably think, yeah, that's probably not a bad idea. They want to accelerate the promotion of new leaders because there are going to be a bunch of high level retirements that are expected because people are aging out of the system and they want to make sure that there are new talent coming through and they want to get the institution AI ready, according to a senior official.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, and I mean, we've been hearing from lobbyists, especially in recent years, that they feel like they're just actually, believe it or not, there are not enough commission officials to do kind of all the complex legislating that needs to be done. So the public affairs sector will be very happy to hear that as part of the next EU long term budget, there are plans to hire 1500 more staff for the Commission, plus almost 1000 for other EU institutions. But recruitment is still a weak spot. According to Serafin, and he said at a press briefing, recruitment does remain a weak spot.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah, I mean, so Serafin said that the current model means it can take two to three years from the moment of application to someone actually getting their first paycheck. So that's quite a startling kind of stat. But in any case, look, there has been some backlash, as you alluded to, from the institution itself. The employees are saying that, like their voices haven't been heard during the process of this overhaul being planned. And they're also kind of irritated about who's been tapped to make the changes or to make these recommendations for reform. So there's an eight member team of external experts who've been chosen to help. It's this high level reflection group. Sounds kind of like a yoga class, but whatever. It's being led by Catherine Day. She's leading the team and she will be familiar to people around Brussels because she was the Commission Secretary General under two former Commission presidents. So she's well known in town and she led the last two big workplace reforms back in 2004 and 2014. And employees, some of them reckon that, well, she's kind of part of the old guard and not exactly representing new thinking as they see it, needing to change.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, well, look, they were pretty unhappy with the changes that were implemented in 2014. The commission raised the pension and retirement ages and increased the work week from 37 and a half to 40 hours. You know, that did lead to a decline in job satisfaction, increased workload for some employees and a rise in staff sick days. On the other hand, this is where you get into the territory of like, you know, pretty much everybody else in Brussels sees these Commission jobs as being pretty cushy. We're all, we're all working 40 hours at least.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

So 40 sounds like a dream. Yeah, but look, and what the European Court of Auditors found back in 2014 is that those reforms actually saved 4.2 billion in staff costs. So, you know, two sides of the coin.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Exactly.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Well, in any case, what's next for this review is basically there's going to be a bunch more consultations, more meetings of this high level reflection group. Next one is going to be September 2nd and there's going to be some recommendations ready for Ursula von der Line by the end of the year at the latest.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And the Commission is telling staff who are unhappy that there's a suggestion box available.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

There's also the playbook WhatsApp line, folks. So if you want to share your experiences with this review, what you think about it, if you were one of the 3, 000 people on this call. Wait, one of the 30?

[Taras Kochka]

30,000?

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah. If you're one of the 30,000 people on this call and you have some thoughts, you know where to share them. Link is in the show Notes. Sarah, I have got my hands on a rather interesting report that's due out later today. It's the European Commission's Joint Research Center's demographics report. And there was a stat in there that really struck me, which is that there were 6.8 million births in 1964 in Europe, and that's dropped to 3.5 million in 2024. So it's astonishing, almost half the number of births. So we were talking about demographics earlier. We're talking about EU expansion. This is like the problem that in some ways, the EU accession process is kind of designed to fix the fact that Europe is depopulating. Yeah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I mean, so there are fewer babies, but those babies are going to live to be much older, old people. Baby born in the EU today can expect to live to roughly 81 and a half. You know, that's a record. And by the end of the century, life expectancy could pass 90 for women and 86 for men. But, yeah, that means that Europe will be increasingly dependent on migration for population growth. And you need people to take care of all these old people.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah, and this is the thing. So Europe is basically graying, aging and shrinking. The population is shrinking. And actually, so this report says that Basically the peak EU's peak population is going to be hit in 2029, and then what will begin is a decline in population. And by 21. Oh, I don't know what we're calling that. 2100, 2100. God, how do you even say that? By 2100. By the year 2100, the population of the EU could fall below 400 million and could be back at the levels of the 1970s, which is quite interesting.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And indeed, by that year, 2100, 15% of Europeans will be in their 80s or above, and that's compared to just 6% today. The Commission is calling this the longevity economy. And it's very, you know, Brussels way of saying that we'll need more care workers, better health care, accessible housing and technology to help older people.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

And actually, the EU's commissioner in charge of demography, Debrafka Schwitzer, she has some recommendations that she thinks the EU needs to do in order to deal with some of these challenges. She wants to set up an effective European agency for demography, she said, that would deal with these sorts of problems. And she reckons we see countries around Europe and also elsewhere trying to motivate people to have more children, trying to get that birth rate up. But she said, look, there's more to it than that. It's not just about getting women to have more babies, although that's really important. She also said, look, there are places where the unemployment rate is quite high and you could actually get more people into employment who are currently unemployed. And she points to Sweden as an example of a success story on that front.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, and I mean, this sort of population shrinkage does matter because this is falling right in the middle of Europe's big debate on competitiveness. So the question is, how can you be competitive when your population is just shrinking and getting older? And so that's really this existential question that Europe is going to be dealing with.

[Carolina]

Right.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

O Sarah, before we go, we have received a lovely message from one of our listeners, Carolina in Portugal. And here's her voice note.

[Carolina]

Hi there. This is Carolina from Portugal. I've been listening to the Brussels Playbook podcast since it has been launched and almost religiously every morning when I first reply to work emails. So I'm quite lazy. And this is the best way to be in touch with any policy and Brussels related developments. But most importantly, because of the humoristic tone that is very inherent to Politico. And my favorite episodes are for sure anything related to NATO because it really encapsulates the discussions that are being held on a day to day basis. And I hope I win this because I really want political smirch.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Well, Carolina, I've got great news for you. You're about to get a Politico tote bag.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right. And listen to that. I mean, we were talking about productivity and competitiveness. Just start your day by listening to Brussels Playbook podcast.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Yeah, and we were also productive. We were also talking about mass. And here we've got a religious experience, a full circle moment on the Brussels Playbook podcast.

[Sarah Wheaton]

That was. That's what gets you a tote bag. Obrigada.

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

Carolina, before we go, we've got kind of a special birthday today. Manfred Weber, the all powerful boss of the EPP, is turning 54 today.

[Sarah Wheaton]

They have to sing him Happy Birthday twice for both his EPP jobs and

[Zoya Shevtolovic]

give him two cakes. Manfred, you know where I work. Send me some of that sweet, sweet birthday cake, please. All right, folks, that's it from us today. Subscribe, subscribe. Give us a rating. Send us your messages. Link is in the show notes as always. Five stars, baby.

[Sarah Wheaton]

He can have his cake and eat it too.

[Dasha Burns]

Hey, it's Dasha Burns, Politico's White House bureau chief and host of the conversation. Every week I sit down with one of the most compelling power players shaping Washington and beyond. We go past the headlines and the talking points to really understand how, how these people think, how they make decisions, and what drives them behind the scenes. From political insiders to influential voices outside government, these are the conversations that help explain what's actually shaping this moment in American politics. Check out the conversation every Friday.