Boiling in Brussels: Climate fights and Orbán vs. Pride

Summary

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EU Confidential – July 4, 2025

Episode: "Boiling in Brussels: Climate Fights and Orbán vs. Pride"

Host: Sarah Wheaton, POLITICO
Guests: Louise Guyot (Climate Reporter), Nick Vinokur (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent), Max Guerra (EU Politics Reporter), Aitor Hernandez Morales (Cities Expert)

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Episode Overview

This EU Confidential episode dives into the intense political and literal heat sweeping Europe. As record-breaking temperatures close landmarks and unleash wildfires, the European Commission unveils its ambitious 2040 climate target. The panel examines the mixed political reactions, Denmark's daunting EU Council presidency, the rise of Bjorn Seibert as the real power behind the Brussels curtain, and the latest front in the rule-of-law battle: Viktor Orbán’s attempted ban on Budapest Pride. The show closes with a report on how mayors across Europe are turning to Brussels for help on housing and climate as national governments retreat.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Europe in Crisis: Heatwave and Wildfires

• Extreme heat led to closures of the Eiffel Tower, Atomium, and wildfires across Southern and even parts of Northern Europe.
• Climate experts are attributing the frequency and intensity of these events to climate change, intensifying pressure for meaningful EU action.

2. The Commission’s 2040 Climate Target: Bold Ambition or Hollow Commitment?

The New Target & Controversial “Flexibilities”

• Louise Guyot ([05:07]): The Commission proposes a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040 compared to 1990, but with significant “flexibilities”—notably, allowing member states to offset emissions by purchasing carbon credits from non-EU countries.
  • “Some people call them loopholes. The Commission says it's flexibilities.” ([05:08] Louise Guyot)
  • This mechanism lets wealthier countries pay developing nations to reduce their emissions, which critics liken to "cheating" as it diverts investment away from domestic decarbonization ([06:47]).
• Political Rationale: Guyot explains this is a compromise engineered by the center-right, especially Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, to win over a more right-leaning Parliament and member states post-election ([07:19]).

The Danish Presidency’s Challenge

• Nick Vinokur reports from Denmark as it begins its EU Council presidency—tasked with forging consensus on both the 2040 and upcoming 2035 emission targets under a tight September deadline ([08:20]).
  • Denmark is seen as a climate ‘champion’ but its presidency will be fraught and brief.

3. Denmark's EU Council Presidency Priorities

• Nick Vinokur outlines priorities heard in meetings with Danish ministers: security (especially defense collaboration), competitiveness (with a focus on creating a Savings and Investment Union), and tough new action on migration, particularly an easier “Returns Directive” (deportations) process ([09:59], [10:47]).
  • “Returns is a nice way of saying deportations.” ([10:51] Nick Vinokur)
• There is skepticism in Brussels about passing such controversial legislation with existing majorities, raising questions about potential alliances with the far right ([11:28]).

4. Who Really Runs Brussels? The Rise of Bjorn Seibert

• Bjorn Seibert, Ursula von der Leyen’s chief of staff, emerges as a central power broker—nicknamed “the informal co-president” for his control over Commission decisions ([12:06]).
  • “Almost nothing happens in the commission without his sign off.” ([12:54] Nick Vinokur)

Centralization and Criticism

• Seibert signs off on key cabinet and policy appointments, drawing concern from even former Commission heavyweights like Michel Barnier about an "authoritarian drift" ([13:04]).
• Delays in the 2040 climate package rollout were partly to align with member state consultations, an example of his “pre-engineering” legislative proposals ([14:32] Louise Guyot).

Parliamentary Perspective

• In Parliament, Seibert is both respected for his intelligence and effectiveness, and criticized for becoming increasingly “determined to get his way” and averse to opposition ([16:29] Max Guerra).
• Seibert refused to engage with POLITICO for the profile, maintaining his “gatekeeper” mystique ([17:09]).

5. Budapest Pride: Hungary’s Culture War Test Case

Orbán’s Attempted Ban and Backlash

• Max Guerra recounts Hungary’s government’s last-minute attempt to ban the 30th Budapest Pride, leveraging anti-LGBT laws but challenged by “the green mayor” of Budapest, who registered the march as a city event to skirt the ban ([17:58]).
  • Attendance swelled to 200,000—a record for both Pride and anti-government protests ([18:46]).
  • “Even though it was a pride, it was clearly also an anti government protest.” ([19:34] Max Guerra)

Brussels’ Muted Response

• The Commission, and von der Leyen personally, only addressed the issue with a public statement shortly before the march, leading to criticism for “treading lightly” and failing to challenge Hungary more forcefully ([19:50], [21:02]).
  • National and EU politicians faced conflicting pressure: Major opposition leaders in Hungary urged MEPs not to attend to avoid fueling Orbán's “Brussels imposition” narrative ([21:18]).
  • “Look, they're coming from Brussels to really impose their woke culture, quote unquote, on us.” ([22:18] Max Guerra)

EU Strategy: Wait for Elections

• EU leadership essentially “stopped short” of sanctioning Hungary, betting on upcoming elections to change the political landscape ([22:24] Nick Vinokur).

6. Mayors to Brussels: Help on Housing and Climate!

Pan-European Urban Concerns Escalate

• Aitor Hernandez Morales details the results of the Euro Cities Pulse survey: climate change and housing are now the top two priorities of over 80 European mayors, displacing other issues ([25:04], [26:07]).
  • “Housing was the last priority. Now it is the number two priority for mayors. The only thing they are more concerned about is climate change.” ([25:26] Aitor Hernandez Morales)

Housing Crisis: Causes and Political Blame Game

• Many cities (e.g., Barcelona, Lisbon) are experimenting with bold restrictions on short-term tourist rentals to curb gentrification and spiraling local costs ([26:10]).
• Migration is often blamed for the housing crunch, but studies show it’s a red herring; the real problem is the lack of affordable housing, not a shortage of housing in general ([27:52]).
  • “Houses continue to be built across Europe... but because it's in the hands of the private sector and they're looking for the most economically lucrative options, they are catering to an upper echelon of home buyers.” ([28:13] Aitor Hernandez Morales)
• Mayors are pushing EU officials for “affordable housing” support, noting that even middle classes are being priced out ([28:54]).

Brussels Steps Up—Cautiously

• Due to EU treaty limitations, the Commission can’t directly build housing but is increasing flexibility on regional funding (up to €15 billion) for affordable housing and strengthening coordination ([29:39]).
• Dan Jørgensen (Denmark) is now the first dedicated EU Housing Commissioner, with plans for policy rollout expected next year ([29:42]).

Mayors Trust Brussels More Than Nationals

• Mayors increasingly see Brussels as a more trustworthy partner than national governments, whom they accuse of centralizing power and ignoring local needs ([32:38], [32:51]).
  • “The mayors... want the commission to see them as trusted partners, because that's the way that they see Brussels.” ([34:15] Aitor Hernandez Morales)
• Despite goodwill, direct access to EU funds remains an “impossible dream” given national governments’ control over EU budgets ([36:07]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It's unbearable... yes, I'm indeed Spanish, but that doesn't mean we tolerate this crazy heat.” ([03:46] Max Guerra)
• "It's like I keep doing what I've been doing, you, third country, not in the EU—I will pay you to work even harder, and I don't have to make as big of changes." ([06:47] Nick Vinokur)
• "Bjorn Seibert is the best known person in Brussels who's incredibly influential...sometimes referred to even as the kind of informal co-president of the European Union." ([12:06] Nick Vinokur)
• “More and more, as time passes, Bjorn likes to be contradicted less and how he gets more, I wouldn't say aggressive, but perhaps more determined to get his way.” ([16:29] Max Guerra)
• “Even though it was a pride, it was clearly also an anti government protest... You would see Orbán's face everywhere and everyone was protesting against him.” ([19:34] Max Guerra)
• “Migration seems to be a bit of a red herring... It's not the case that they're actually being used either by tourists or they're being purchased as investments by sovereign wealth funds...” ([27:52] Aitor Hernandez Morales)
• “The issue is that right now it's no longer a low income issue, it's now even the middle class can't afford the houses that are being built.” ([28:54] Aitor Hernandez Morales)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Extreme Heat Crisis Intro: [00:59]–[03:46]
• 2040 Climate Target & Flexibilities Explained: [05:07]–[08:08]
• Danish Presidency’s Priorities & Migration Policy: [09:39]–[11:28]
• Inside Power: Bjorn Seibert Profile: [12:06]–[17:09]
• Budapest Pride, Orbán’s Ban, and EU’s Response: [17:58]–[22:57]
• Mayoral Urban Priorities: Housing & Climate: [25:04]–[32:38]
• Mayors’ Trust in EU > Nationals & Structural Limits: [32:38]–[37:10]

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Conclusion

This episode paints a picture of a Europe under pressure—by climate, politics, and shifting power structures. It spotlights the Commission’s struggle to advance ambitious climate policy in a more right-leaning EU, the stealth influence of unelected powerbrokers like Bjorn Seibert, and the adaptive, sometimes subversive, resistance of cities and civil society in the face of authoritarian drift from Budapest to Brussels. Mayors’ urgent pleas on housing and climate underscore a growing disconnect between local needs and national priorities, raising the stakes for the EU’s future—and for everyday Europeans seeking relief from both the heat and political gridlock.

Transcript

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[Nick Vinokur]

Excludes Massachusetts. Europe was united this week in a furnace. It was so bad the Eiffel Tower was partially closed. The Atomium shut down early here in Brussels. And more concerningly, wildfires raged in Greece, Turkey, France and parts of Scotland. You know the drill. Experts pointed to climate change. The frequency and intensity of extreme heat.

[Louise Guyot]

Events is increasing in Europe.

[Nick Vinokur]

So voila. What better week for the European Commission to unveil its long delayed climate target? The headline number a 90% drop in emissions by 2040. It sounds ambitious until you start to learn about all the quote unquote flexibilities. After all, it's an awkward time to be unveiling deadlines for cutting emissions. The EU's post election shift to the right has made many governments more wary of green rules, despite the heat. And this isn't the only issue where the changing political winds are giving us whiplash. Look at the politics of migration. Deportations are likely to be a top priority for the incoming Danish presidency of the Council of the eu. And then there are social issues. Viktor Orban's move to ban Budapest pride after three decades of LGBT celebrations in the Hungarian capital and the muted response from Brussels show that issues that once seemed settled are decidedly not. And through it all, there's Commission President Ursula von der Leyen keeping her grip on power no matter which way the political winds blow. Can you tell we're desperate for a breeze? I'm Sarah Wheaton, host of EU Confidential. If last year was brat summer, this year it's all about Bjorn. Ursula von der Leyen's top aide, Bjorn Zeibert, is the gatekeeper, helping her navigate all this season's heated debates. We'll pull back the curtain later. In the episode, we look at how all these tensions, from climate and migration to housing are playing out at the level of cities and why mayors are hoping Brussels will step in to help when their national governments refuse. But first, I'm joined by my colleagues, climate reporter Louise Guyot, Nick Vinoker, our chief foreign affairs correspondent, and EU politics reporter Max Guerra. Okay, so we are speaking on a sweltering day in Brussels. Max, how are you dealing with the heat?

[Max Guerra]

It's unbearable. It's unbearable. People keep asking me, well, but you're a Spaniard, right? So you should be fine with it. But yes, I'm indeed Spanish, but that doesn't mean we tolerate this crazy heat.

[Nick Vinokur]

Well, indeed. I'm a Floridian and I'm used to, like, frigid air conditioning. And that was an issue for your main parliament beat, right?

[Max Guerra]

Indeed, indeed. Some staffers in the Parliament suffered it more than others because the AC in their building suffered a grave malfunction, in fact, and the Parliament has not been able to fix that.

[Nick Vinokur]

It just made me think of how in Washington D.C. it also gets very hot. But the buildings are so cold that people always said, oh, maybe if members of Congress had to feel the actual heat outside, they would take a different approach, especially to climate legislation. Nick, you're on a bus somewhere in Denmark. We'll talk a little bit more about why soon. But how's it going up there?

It's going well. Everyone is out sunbathing on the harbor of Copenhagen at 2:30 in the afternoon, so. Sounds like nice work if you can get it.

Everything is better in the Nordics. Okay, Louise, you have been dealing with a hot political issue, a very timely one. So this week, the Commission, in the middle of this heat wave, unveiled its 2040 climate target. Feels a bit ironic. Maybe, but can you walk us through what they're proposing and why we're already seeing pushback?

[Louise Guyot]

Sure. As you said, the European Commission presented its new climate target for 2040. It proposed to cut emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels. But that comes with a few caveats. Some people call them loopholes. The Commission says it's flexibilities. It's basically giving member states a little bit of room to maneuver around this new climate milestone. And so, basically, to make it a bit an easier pill to swallow, the Commission has come up with these flexibilities. So one of them and the most controversial one is outsourcing some of the EU's climate effort abroad. That's called carbon credits.

[Nick Vinokur]

Okay, so outsourcing to third countries, I can't get my head around that. Explain what that means.

[Louise Guyot]

Sure. So basically, the EU or its member states would have the possibility to buy carbon credits to offset part of their emissions to third countries. Let's say Poland buys carbon credit to Vietnam and pays for Vietnam to reduce their emissions, while Poland can still continue to emit a little bit more here within the eu. And that's why carbon credits are controversial, because critics say using carbon credits is a little bit like cheating, because the EU would not have to make as big efforts as it would have if it only had to reduce all of this 90% emissions by 2040 here within the EU, solely domestically, they're essentially paying someone else to. To pollute less.

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah. So it's like I keep doing what I've been doing, you, third country, not in the eu, I will pay you to work even harder, and I don't have to make as big of changes.

[Louise Guyot]

Exactly. And this is also controversial because some critics say, well, if you do that, you risk diverting investments that we need to be doing in the EU to decarbonise away.

[Nick Vinokur]

Instead of upgrading your own infrastructure, you're paying it to Vietnam or Ghana or whoever. But so what are the political forces behind all these flexibilities?

[Louise Guyot]

So the idea of using carbon credits came from Commissioner Vuka Hoeksra, who's responsible for climate change. He's also a member of the Central Right European People's Party. And so he's been pushing this idea as a way to try and create a broad majority for the 90% target that the Commission is putting on the table. Because following the European election last year, we've seen a shift to the right and a lot more pushback against ambitious green legislation. So using these flexibilities is seen as a way by the European Commission to build consensus and try and find a broad majority, both among EU government, but also within the European Parliament. And that's going to be very tricky for the Commission because we see that both in Parliament and among the EU government, everyone is split on this issue.

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah. And so it's going to be the Danish presidency, which started this week, that will have to oversee these discussions. Denmark, we always think of it as like kind of this green champion. How do you see them leading these talks?

[Louise Guyot]

Well, they have a very difficult task ahead and a very short timeline. And to achieve it, because basically the EU has to come up by the end of September with a target for 2035. That's a requirement in the Paris Agreement. The EU needs to tell the United nations we're going to cut our emissions by x percent by 2035. But the idea is to derive that target from the 2040 target that the commission proposed on Wednesday. And so now starts the difficult task of the Danish presidency to try and find consensus among member states to agree on both these issues. Because if you decide to discuss 2040 targets and the 2035 target separately, potentially you end up with a lower or higher number of emission cuts that you will have to do in the next few years.

[Nick Vinokur]

Okay. So, yeah, we are used to the EU legislative process seeming to take forever, so it'll be interesting to see how they handle this outside deadline. Nick, you are in Denmark for a trip associated with the start of the Danish presidency. They just took it over from the polls this week. Where are you exactly? And what's the vibe over there?

I'm on a bus from Copenhagen to Aarhus, which is kind of the second city of Denmark and I'm told is very beautiful. And that's where they'll put on a big song and dance for the visiting senior.

And what are the priorities of the Danish presidency shaping up to be?

Well, we just had this speed dating session with a bunch of Danish ministers and they put a big emphasis on security and competitiveness. So Denmark is all about investing in defense and kind of finding projects that might interest different European countries to invest in together and also working on competitiveness. So one thing they said they would put on the agenda or start talking about is the Savings and Investment Union. And then of course, there's migration. Denmark is among, if not the most hawkish country in Europe on migration. And so there were a lot of questions about that, about how Denmark is going to move the agenda forward. Notably on the Returns Directive, which is a controversial piece of legislation that will be going to Parliament.

It's basically deportations, right? Making deportations easier.

Exactly. It's basically returns is a nice way of saying deportations. And somebody asked the minister, well, do you think a center left party or a liberal party in the European Parliament will be able to pass this? And he said, well, I don't see anything wrong with deporting people who are here illegally for a center left party. We'll see how that goes over in Brussels. I don't think it will go over at all. And it's being seen as another kind of test case for this von der Leyen coalition. Will they be able to pass that or will they have to go to populist parties and far right parties to get it passed?

Well, you gave me a perfect segue to the other thing that I wanted to talk to you about. Indeed. When we were talking about the tensions within the von der Leyen coalition in last week's episode of EU Confidential, we asked who's really running Brussels. Max, who's who's here with us again this week? He said it's, it's EPP leader Manfred Weber. Carl Matheson said it's still Ursula von der Leyen. Nick, you pulled back the curtain on someone who perhaps to also be in that conversation. Bjorn Seibert. Who is he? What do we know about him? Apart from the fact that he likes wearing sneakers with his suit? Suits.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah.

[Nick Vinokur]

Bjorn Seibert is the best known person in Brussels who's incredibly influential. People refer to him just as Bjorn. You can say Bjorn and people know you're talking about. He's the chief of staff to Ursula von der Leyen and he wields enormous influence inside the bubble. He manages coalitions in parliament, he sits in on meetings with ambassadors. He's currently right now as we record this on the plane to Washington D.C. to sort of chaperone the trade talks over there. He's Ursula von der Leyen's right hand man, but he is more than that. Also he sometime referred to even as the kind of informal co president of the European Union. So we decided we thought we should shine a light on him.

But yeah, I mean you report that almost nothing happens in the commission without his sign off. And so what does that kind of control look like in practice and is it causing any issues?

Yeah, I mean what we saw was that basically in the second term, Bjorn and Orsula have tightened their grip and centralized power even more than in the previous one. And effectively what this means is that Bjorn wants oversight of just about anything that goes on in the commission. So when a new college was named, he wanted to personally sign off on every cabinet pick. When the Secretary General's office restructured itself, they submitted their plans to the 13th floor to Bjorn and Orsula, and then they had to sit around for about 3, 4 months for Bjorn to just take a look at these plans. And this has led to a lot of complaints that the power has become too centralized. We had former Brexit negotiator Michel Bonier tell us about that. He's worried about an authoritarian drift inside the commission. And he specifically named Seibert and recalled von Der Leyen's powerful chief of staff as being part of that. So the story gets into some of the concerns about how much power this unelected person, who is otherwise considered very talented, very hardworking, a very good thinker, but just how much power he's accumulated, where the limits of that power, power are and whether they might be going too far.

Louise, just to kind of, to get a taste of this, have we seen any marks of Sibert's thinking on this 2040 package?

[Louise Guyot]

Yes. So indeed, Seibert is known to be in close contact with the capitals as well. And the European Commission also delayed its 2040 climate target. It was supposed to be presented at the start of this year around February, and then it got pushed back and pushed back. That was also meant as a moment to consult with member states because the European Commissioner, Sulla von der Leyen, was seeing that pushback against the Green deal was increasing. And maybe in their tour of the capitals, they saw maybe some of the same results that we on the climate team saw when we surveyed all 27 member states, when we asked them about what they would like to see in the 2040 climate target and what they would not like to see. And this is how we kind of were able to paint a little bit of picture of how much pushback and how little support actually there is for a 90% target without any flexibilities, without any caveats or loopholes.

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah. So we're seeing signs that he's, he is engaging with the capital sort of pre engineering proposals to make sure they work Max, in the Parliament. Are they feeling like they're getting this type of access to cyber?

[Max Guerra]

I think the apex of Bjorn's involvement in Parliament was when he had to secure a majority for von der Leyen to get a second term. That's when you saw him walking around Parliament meeting with all the group leaders, head of delegation, leaders from different nationalities, trying to really rally them and bringing them all together on board to vote for von der Leyen. After that, of course, Bjorn is still in touch with the Parliament, but at the highest level, especially when it comes to very sensitive files. So for sure, when the 2040 target comes to Parliament to be voted, I bet that since it's a very sensitive file, Bjorn will make some phone calls to make sure things get through for sure.

[Nick Vinokur]

But I mean, does the EU's only elected body have any issues with an unelected official wielding so much power?

[Max Guerra]

So when you ask around the Parliament who Bjorn Seibert is and what do lawmakers and officials think about Him. There's two things that come up. On the one hand, everyone, absolutely everyone will praise how smart he is. And as Nick was saying, also everyone will say how much power he has. Right. How he will, on the one hand, listen to everyone and try to really find a compromise, but on the other hand, really push to get what he wants. Someone in Parliament was telling me also how more and more, as time passes, Bjorn likes to be contradicted less and how he gets more, I wouldn't say aggressive, but perhaps more determined to get his way.

[Nick Vinokur]

And, Nick, back to you. How did Bjorn react when he learned we were writing this profile?

Did not engage. We, of course, asked to speak to him, and we asked for all kinds of information. This is someone who's not used to the spotlight. Right. He seeks power, but is also not the principal and is very much a gatekeeper for his boss, the star Von Gorlein.

Yeah. And, Max, we're going to switch gears and look at the reporting trip that you went on last weekend. It also involved some tensions between Von der Leyen and the Parliament. But first, let's catch up on the basics of that before we get into the drama. You were in Budapest for the Pride celebration. This was the 30th time that there has been a Budapest Pride. So why was it controversial this year?

[Max Guerra]

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban tried to ban it, tried to make it illegal. They used these laws, this child protection law, to ban public exhibitions of homosexuality or gender diversity. They targeted freedom of assembly. Right. They were trying to ban a peaceful gathering. And that's why it also generated so much backlash in Hungarian society. While Orban was doubling down on this ban, threatening potential organizers or attendees with imprisonment or big fines, the Green Mayor of Budapest, Gergeli Carsoni, challenged him. Right. And he said, look, I'm going to organize it as a municipality event. This means that then we can organize it because it's legal, because municipality events are not under the remit of this law that Orban crafted to ban Pride.

[Nick Vinokur]

So what was the vibe like on the ground?

[Max Guerra]

Warm, first of all, because, you know, we also had the heat wave going on, so the vibe was sweaty, but it was also full of people. It really shocked me to see the sheer amount of people that showed up. You know, I remember reading reports of the organizers thinking that they would reach a record high of 30,000 attendees. And then in the end, it turns out that it was a total amount of 200,000 people, which is not only a Pride record, but it's also a record in terms of anti Government protests. Such number had not been seen in Budapest or Hungary in a couple of decades. So even though it was a pride, it was clearly also an anti government protest. It went further than just protesting for LGBT rights and the freedom of assembly. It really transformed into this anti government protest. You would see Orban's face everywhere and everyone was protesting against him.

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah. So, as you mentioned, there was a lot of domestic opposition turning out against Orban. There were also other figures from around the world, around Europe. In the lead up to Pride and this potential ban, what was going on here in Brussels?

[Max Guerra]

It was tense in the run up to the Budapest Pride because there was a lot of confusion on whether it was actually legal or not, what would be the consequences. And to that, you add the fact that you had around the 70 MEPs going, plus national representatives. In political terms, it was also tense because the Commission did not and still has not launched a legal challenge against this law, which has led to a lot of criticism, especially from Parliament. There was also the question whether the Commission would be present at all. Von der Leyen did not react to this ban until the day before or two days before. Then she did send a strong message saying, please, Mr. Orban allowed this pride to happen. She sort of sent this message to the whole of the LGBT community saying, I will always be your ally. Then also last minute, we saw Commissioner for Equality Hajalabib confirming she would be there on the ground. However, she only went the day before to have a press conference with the Budapest mayor and to meet with activists. But on the day of the march, she was not there to protest, on the one hand, because that would mean a serious challenge from the Commission to attend an event that is technically banned by a government. And in the end, the Commission represents the 27 member states. But then also, on the other hand, Hajjal Habib's granddaughter was born then, so she had an excuse not to be there.

[Nick Vinokur]

As you mentioned, some national figures and MEPs were disappointed in von der Leyen's response, which was pretty muted. But, you know, there was also a push from Hungary, from von der Leyen's allies in Hungary, for the Commission to kind of tread lightly.

[Max Guerra]

Indeed, the main opposition to Orban that is currently ahead in polls. I think they're about 53%. Tisa and its leader, Peter Magyar, a clear message to EPP and their colleagues in the Parliament and in Brussels. They asked them, please do not go, because that would be falling into Orban's trap. Orban will use this as ammunition against us, saying that we come from Brussels with Brussels to sort of invade Budapest and really impose these liberal values on us. So he really sent this message and EPP picked up. We didn't have representatives of EPP present. We just had one mep, Maria Walsh from Ireland. And ultimately, indeed, that's what they did. Right. So on the day after, on Sunday, people close to Orban, such as the Secretary of State for International Communication or his political director Balash Orban, sort of used this narrative of, look, they're coming from Brussels to really impose their woke culture, quote unquote, on us.

[Nick Vinokur]

Nick, any last reflections on Fonder Leyen and her kind of handling of all this?

You know, the commission came under a lot of pressure to somehow correct Hungary or punish Hungary over the pride ban. And it essentially stopped short of doing anything to rein them in. So all hopes now seem to be on an election next year and a different type of leader coming into power. That seems to be the one and only strategy of the EU to deal with this rebellious state in its myths. And not everybody agrees with that, but that seems to be the wanderer lyen approach.

Okay, thanks to all my panelists. I'm gonna let them go. But you can find their coverage at Politico eu and you can also find Nick's profile of bjorn Zibert in POLITICO's print edition available at finer Schumann area coffee shops. And with that, it's time for a quick break. When we come back, we'll hear from Politico cities expert Aitor Hernandez Morales. It turns out Budapest pride is far from the only instance of left leaning mayors seeking an alliance with Brussels. Stay with us.

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And it would be really nice to be able to share a recipe or.

[Sarah Wheaton]

An article or compete with him in wordle or connections. Thank you, Dana. We heard you introducing the New York Times family subscription. One subscription, up to four separate logins for anyone in your life. Find out [e-mail] Family.

[Nick Vinokur]

Aitor, welcome back.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Thank you, Sarah.

[Nick Vinokur]

We've had you on frequently over the past year, but a year ago specifically, we had you on to talk about the EU wide housing crisis and how it was affecting politics ahead of key national elections. Now you're back because the problem hasn't gone away and it's only getting worse. Yep. So as part of Living Cities, you and our colleague Giovanna Coy wrote about this survey of mayors. Can you tell us about that?

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yes, absolutely. So this is the annual Euro Cities Pulse survey. Euro Cities is this network of over 200 European C, and every year they gather mayors all across Europe and they ask them a series of questions about what are their priorities for the year. In this case, 86 mayors participated. And what we saw was really striking in that it highlights the scale of the housing crisis across Europe. This is a ranking that has, you know, their 10 top priorities. In 2023, housing was the last priority. Now it is the number two priority for mayors. The only thing they are more concerned about is climate change and the impact of climate change in their cities. But right after that is the housing crisis, and that's because the residents are really being priced out. It's something that's generating protests in cities across Europe. You guys will probably remember the big ones against tourists in places like Barcelona, in Milan, in Lisbon. But even in places that aren't tourist hotspots, we really are seeing a growing amount of discontent as housing becomes a major factor in the wider affordability crisis.

[Nick Vinokur]

So what are mayors? I imagine it really depends on the, on the city and the region.

[Sarah Wheaton]

But broadly, what are they doing about really, really depends. In some cities like Barcelona, you have really bold initiatives. So in Barcelona, you may remember that earlier this year, rather last year the city moved to essentially phase out short term rentals. So tourist rentals like Airbnb, those will no longer exist after 2028. And basically what the city is doing is it's not an explicit ban, they're simply not renewing any licenses or issuing any new ones. And the ones that exist will expire by then. This is very contentious, as you can imagine. You know, they're being taken to court. We'll see how it turns out. But that is one way in which some mayors are increasingly looking because they see these kinds of apartments as major factors in gentrification. And we certainly see that in the most touristic cities in Europe. In places like Lisbon, where I, where I used to live, I lived through the dramatic gentrification of the Alfama neighborhood, which is this very charming Moorish neighborhood in the city center, but which gradually went from being this place where you had these elderly Portuguese people living in small flats to being a place where now essentially you only hear English all the time, because it's just tourists showing up with their little rolly suitcases and enjoying a lovely time there. But it really is a neighborhood that is now being robbed of its identity and in which it's becoming increasingly impossible for locals to live because they're surrounded by commerce that only focuses on tourists. So restaurants for tourists, stores for tourists, souvenir shops, that sort of thing, where daily life is basically impossible.

[Nick Vinokur]

What about cities where tourism is not as big of a factor? And of course, you know, migration has been pinpointed as a potential culprit in many places.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I mean, migration seems to be a bit of a red herring because the issue with, with the housing crunch when we look at the traditional cores of cities where people want to live, is that the issue is the prices are rising. This isn't something where, you know, some undocumented migrant is coming and buying a penthouse flat or renting out these places through Airbnb. They can't afford it either. So it is true that this is something that's been waved around in a lot of elections, especially by far right parties. We saw that in the Netherlands last year. The big argument was that asylum seekers were taking the affordable housing. Numerous studies have shown that isn't true. I recently saw this when I was covering the Portuguese elections. This was a recurring thing where they were saying, oh, the migrants are taking our homes. But when you actually look at it in places like Lisbon, again, it's very clearly shown that that's not the case, that they're actually being used either by tourists or they're being purchased as investments by sovereign wealth funds that then will redo an entire building and do it for luxury housing. So really catering to upper class audiences, one of the things that's, that's worth emphasizing is that, yes, Europe has a housing shortage, but it is a shortage of affordable housing. Houses continue to be built across Europe. That's never stopped. But because it's in the hands of the private sector and they're looking for the most economically lucrative options, they are catering to an upper echelon of home buyers. And the issue is that right now it's no longer a low income issue, it's now even the middle class can't afford the houses that are being being built. And that's why mayors are really, really, really insisting what we need is affordable housing. Please help us increase the affordable housing stock.

[Nick Vinokur]

So when they're asking, you know, please, please build more affordable housing, like can't they just change the permits and that type of thing? Do they have control over this or do they need help from somebody else?

[Sarah Wheaton]

They need help because they need money more than anything. So one of the things that they're really asking for is for greater EU intervention. So as we've discussed before on this podcast, the EU isn't strictly allowed to intervene in housing. This is not one of these areas that they've been given juris in the treaties. And so the way in which the EU can act always has to be a little careful, a little roundabout. We are not at this point going to get into a scenario where, you know, the European Commission comes out and says, we're going to build 5,000 houses in Italy or in Germany or wherever else. Instead, what the EU is doing to respond to this plea is by essentially involving itself as a networker, as a coordinator of the Europe Wide response to this crisis. So last year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, when she was asking the Parliament for support for her second term, one of the things she promised to do was to actually make this an issue the Commission was going to look at. And she vowed to create the first dedicated housing commissioner, Dan Jorgensen from Denmark, who was appointed last year. So Dan Jorgensen is currently working on a plan to increase Europe's affordable housing stock that will be rolled out at the beginning of next year. Meanwhile, simultaneously in the European Parliament, we now have the first ever housing committee. And these are MEPs from across Europe who are also looking at what are the major issues that are stopping affordable housing from being built. And their goal is also to provide basically a roadmap for how we can get rid of these issues. They're looking at red tape, they're looking at short term rentals. So in terms of what the mayors want, more than half of them say that they want EU funds. And again, this is very complicated because the EU technically can't do it explicitly, but what it can do is use programs like the cohesion policy. This is this famous signature policy of the EU which lets the EU pour money into regions with the idea that we want all of the EU to be more or less equitable at some point. So right now, member countries can use cohesion funds to build housing, but that is limited and it can only go to housing for certain levels of income, basically. So one of the big Missions is to change the rules for that and raise that up so that it's not just the poorest members of society, but rather actually the middle class as well. Something that EU has done already is that the EU works with these big seven year budgets and this year they're doing the half point revision of the cash that's left. One of the tweaks that they're making as part of this revision is that they are now going to allow member countries to use up to 50, 15 billion in regional funds for housing. So countries aren't obliged to do it, but the ones that want to, they now have additional access to this pot. So again, it is a process. It is really the first time that the EU can really move around in this area. But there's real interest because even here in Brussels they recognize this local issue is becoming a national and an EU issue.

[Nick Vinokur]

That's actually a good jumping off point to another thing I wanted to ask you about. One of the more surprising findings in the survey is that mayors trust the EU more than their own national governments. What's going on there?

[Sarah Wheaton]

So it's complicated. Realistically speaking. If you guys look at a map of Europe, right now, Europe is very much leaning right. When we look at national governments, when you look at who governs in the bigger cities, for example, what you see are more progressive, left wing or independent mayors. So there's a natural clash there that can be very political and can be very public sometimes. The key example that we look at often is that is with Budapest, where you have a mayor who is in this, you know, constant war with the national government there. But then you just have a growing mistrust because over the last few decades, EU countries have tended to become a lot more centralized, There's a lot more control over public cash on the part of the national authorities. And that perceived loss of autonomy at the municipal level is really resented. So when you talk to mayors, they really do complain of, oh, you know, those guys in the national government, they don't know the people, they're not really talking to, you know, the residents on the ground, they're imposing top down decisions. And so it does seem a bit of a paradox that they find Brussels to be closer given that Brussels is, you know, historically this place that looks so remote. But the EU really has doubled down in reaching out to these people. And the Commission, through smaller lighthouse programs, through things like the new European Bauhaus, through its climate cities initiatives, have really been reaching out to mayors, have been talking to them, have been trying to funnel cash to them in different ways. And that's created a lot of goodwill. And so, if anything, mayors are more keen to work with the commission. They really want a seat at the table, but more than anything, they want the commission to see them as trusted partners, because that's the way that they see Brussels.

[Nick Vinokur]

Okay, well, speaking of these lefty mayors, they're very worried about climate. That's still topping the list, as you said.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. And I mean, let me make clear that even though that may be the trend at the national level, there are plenty of centrist and right wing mayors elsewhere, and they're doing excellent work. This isn't a political issue. It really is just a matter of who's responding to the needs of their, of their citizens. And that's exactly where climate change comes in. It's not a political issue. And this is really something that's affecting cities, regardless of who's governing there. You're seeing massive floods, you're seeing extreme heat just in my home country of Spain, you know, over the past three years, we've seen people dying on the streets in Madrid, which is governed by the right. And you've seen the flooding in Valencia, which is also governed by the right. And so the need to respond to this crisis is all the more intense. So it really is an existential crisis, and it's one which maybe national leaders don't necessarily see, but for the people who are there on the ground, who are having to go to the funerals, or who are having to deal with increased pressure to put trees in these horrible squares that are dominated by concrete, are super hot during the summer, or who are having to deal with their seaside paths that are washing away because of coastal erosion because the sea level's rising. For them, it's a human issue and it's a money issue. They're having to dedicate more and more of their budgets to this. So, yeah, yeah, it's definitely something that house, I'm very, very concerned.

[Nick Vinokur]

Let's zoom out. As you said, you know, these mayors are saying, hey, we want to be more involved. What does all this say about the role of how cities are shaping the EU's agenda?

[Sarah Wheaton]

On one side, the institutions here in Brussels do see mayors as a way for them to keep an eye on what really is going on on the ground. It's true that even for us here, the rest of Europe can seem like a very far off place very quickly. You can get kind of tied up into the bubble. Where I think it's difficult is the thing that the mayors are asking for, which is that decisive seat at the table and more than anything, direct access to EU funds. This is the impossible dream. In order for that to happen, there would have to be serious changes to the treaties. You would have to get the European Council on board, and that would mean convincing national governments to give up the power that they have right now. They are the gatekeepers to those EU funds. So as I mentioned before, the commission's doing a very nice job with these smaller programs that can move some money directly to the mayors. But ultimately, I think that the mayor should keep asking and certainly, like, it's, it's great that they keep raising this issue, but will we see that change anytime soon? No. They will continue to have to deal with national governments.

[Nick Vinokur]

All right. Aitor Hernandez Morales, thank you so much for being here.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Always a pleasure, Sarah.

[Nick Vinokur]

Okay, that's all we have time for this week. If you haven't do subscribe to EU Confidential wherever you listen to podcasts and rate us or leave a comment. You can also send us messages to podcastolitico EU along with a book recommendation for our special summer episode. Thanks to Deanna Sturris, our senior audio producer, and to Ann McElvoy, POLITICO's head of audio. I'm Sarah Wheaton. See you next week. Take the next 30 seconds to invest in yourself with Vanguard.

[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

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