EU Confidential – BONUS EPISODE: At Davos, the Twist in Trump’s Greenland Tale. So What Does Europe Do Next?

Podcast: POLITICO’s EU Confidential
Date: January 22, 2026
Host: Ann McElvoy
Length: ~30 minutes

Episode Overview

This special episode dives into the geopolitical storm unleashed at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, with Donald Trump dominating the agenda before even arriving. The focal point is Trump’s renewed, aggressive push to “acquire Greenland” and the ripple effects on transatlantic relations, NATO, European unity, and greater questions of world order. Featuring on-the-ground interviews with key policymakers (from Finland, Latvia, and Canada) and analysis from economist Ken Rogoff, the episode explores Europe’s anxieties, its options, and the late-breaking diplomatic maneuverings that (temporarily) averted a tariff escalation.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Trump “Greenland Gambit” Takes Center Stage

• [00:04] Ann McElvoy sets the scene: this Davos is all geopolitics, “more like a decisive G7 meeting than Davos,” with Trump looming over all discussions.
• Trump’s threat: annexation of Greenland, possible new tariff war, and pressure on NATO solidarity.
• Most provocative quote from Trump’s speech:

  “All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland.” (B, 01:09)

2. European Fear and Frustration: A Davos of Rupture, Not Dialogue

• [01:56] Rising exasperation among European and transatlantic leaders with the unpredictability and confrontational tone out of Washington:

  “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. Wake up. Where the hell has everybody been?... Have some goddamn balls.” (B, 01:56)

3. Finnish Perspective: Diplomacy Over Confrontation

Guest: Alina Waltonin, Finland’s Foreign Minister

• [03:37–09:09] Finland, NATO’s eastern flank, feels threatened by U.S. antagonism and tariffs.
• Waltonin on the U.S. approach:

  “The current position of the US is a lose, lose position for the US and we are concerned simply because...we are close friends and allies.” (C, 03:37)

• Hopes for American opposition to annexation:

  “I’m still extremely hopeful... there’s massive opposition against the idea in the US.” (C, 04:43)

• On EU response to tariffs:

  “If need be, of course, we are ready to retaliate. But I would like to emphasize that that’s not something we want. We don’t want a trade war.” (C, 05:28)

• Argues Nordic contributions to Arctic defense are serious, citing Finland’s expertise and past training of US soldiers.
• Ultimately, Finns look to the American people to choose a side—“freedom and prosperity” or “predators.”
• Echoes EU Commission President von der Leyen’s call for more European independence, but stresses this is an American inflection point.

4. Latvia: A Small Country’s Stakes in the New Order

Guest: Edgar Zrinkovitz, President of Latvia

• [10:11–16:37] Expresses that European security structures were never robust, with post-Cold War hopes dashed by Russian aggression (Georgia, Ukraine).

  “We have come to the conclusion that we need to mobilize.” (D, 10:11)

• On the Greenland controversy:

  “We still insist that Greenland is part of Denmark … we can address all the security challenges there through NATO.” (D, 10:11)

• Cautions against overreacting to American public bluster, hoping behind-the-scenes diplomacy will prevail.
• On Trump’s hypothetical Greenland “takeover” and NATO’s future:

  “Yes, that's a serious issue for NATO to discuss. And yes, my country, being a small country, still believes in territorial integrity and international law…” (D, 13:24)

• Recognizes world order is in flux; open to transformation, anxious about a “predator world order”:

  “I can't exclude any scenario. But I still hope … we will be finding the great balanced way...” (D, 15:05)

• Sees no loss of momentum for Ukraine peace efforts despite Greenland distraction.

5. Canada’s Balancing Act: Arctic, America & China

Guest: Anita Anand, Foreign Minister of Canada

• [18:02–23:50] Firmly commits to defending the Arctic and collaborating closely with non-Russian Arctic allies.

  “Our Arctic foreign policy ... sees the defence and protection of the Arctic ... as a fundamental national priority.” (E, 18:02)

• Confirms European allies are taking the Arctic threat “very seriously,” but the debate is now over concrete military capabilities.
• On future NATO scenarios:

  “NATO decision making has been collective at all times, and it will continue to be collective...” (E, 21:24)

• Canada less reliant on the U.S., doubling non-US trade, notably making deals with China:

  “We are pragmatic and we are growing non US trade, indeed doubling non US trade over the next 10 years.” (E, 22:28)

• Acknowledges divergence from Europe on China relations but frames it as economic necessity.

6. Ken Rogoff: Cold-Eyed Economic Analysis

Guest: Ken Rogoff, Harvard Economist

• [24:36–29:51] Rogoff sees an “overshoot in beating up on Europe,” but warns Europeans “haven’t yet” woken up to the new harsher reality.

  “Europe has to recognize that it lives in this world. That's not nice.” (B, 24:36)

• Warns market complacency is risky:

  “Sometimes tempers rise and things blow up. That's how World War I started, in a way.” (B, 25:38)

• Believes tariff battles would be damaging, but likely won’t be catastrophic due to “loopholes” and business workarounds.
• Chides Europeans for failing to find leverage, e.g., withhold vital goods in the way China did with rare earths:

  “For all the brains in Europe ... they can't figure out a pain point, some leverage.” (B, 26:29)

• Trump’s “erratic, nearly autocratic” style increases global risk, but AI and deregulation are driving economic upsides for now.

7. The Trump Davos Finale & Sudden Turnaround

• [29:51–end] Recap of Trump’s speech—lays claim to Greenland, asserts it would “enhance security ... for the entire alliance.” (B, 30:28)
• After fiery speech, Trump posts online announcement: sudden framework deal on Greenland with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte; 10% tariffs on hold for now.
• Europe breathes a sigh of relief, but the landscape remains uncertain.
• Final takeaway: “A week in Trump world is a very long time indeed.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump’s Greenland Pitch:

  “All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland.” (B, 01:09)

• Call to Action for Europe:

  “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. Wake up. Where the hell has everybody been?... Have some goddamn balls.” (B, 01:56)

• Finnish Hopeful Realism:

  “I would expect there's massive opposition against the idea in the US ... I would not hope for even a trade war to happen. That's the surest way to lose wealth.” (C, 04:43)

• Latvia’s Somber Perspective on World Order:

  “The collapsing of that world order was not something that I was dreaming when Latvia regained independence back in 1991.” (D, 14:05)

• Canada’s Pragmatic Turn Toward China:

  “We are pragmatic and we are growing non US trade, indeed doubling non US trade over the next 10 years.” (E, 22:28)

• Ken Rogoff on European Strategy:

  “For all the brains in Europe ... they can't figure out a pain point, some leverage.” (B, 26:29)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:04 - Davos mood and Trump’s shadow over the summit
• 01:56 - European exasperation with US unpredictability
• 03:37 - Finnish Foreign Minister Alina Waltonin on Europe’s options
• 09:42 - Latvian President Edgar Zrinkovitz on NATO unity and world order
• 18:02 - Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand on Arctic defense and global trade
• 24:36 - Ken Rogoff’s economic analysis: tariffs, leverage, and US-European dynamics
• 29:51 - Trump’s speech; announcement of sudden Greenland deal
• 30:49 - Episode wrap-up and the unpredictability of Trump-era diplomacy

Summary Takeaways

• Trump’s revived push on Greenland stoked real fears about NATO unity, European security, and transatlantic trade at Davos 2026.
• Europeans are divided between hoping for transatlantic repair and preparing to assert new independence; there’s clear frustration at the lack of muscular, unified response.
• The US is seen both as unreliable and irreplaceable—forcing a reckoning, especially for Europe’s border states and Arctic allies.
• Canada is beginning to diversify, forging deeper economic links with China.
• Ken Rogoff sees Europe as slow to adjust, lacking leverage, but believes disaster is not preordained.
• The “Davos week” ends with typical Trumpian unpredictability: threats followed by dealmaking, leaving allies both relieved and uncertain as to what comes next.

For those who missed the episode, this special at Davos illuminates the volatility at the heart of today’s transatlantic politics and Europe’s ongoing challenge: how to respond when the winds from Washington grow arctic cold.