Bonus episode: Ernstfall — What if Russia attacks NATO?

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast: "Ernstfall — What if Russia attacks NATO?"

Episode Date: July 5, 2026
Host: POLITICO, English edition produced in partnership with Welt
Theme: Inside a German war game: How prepared is Germany—and NATO—if Russia attacks a Baltic NATO member?

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Episode Overview

This bonus episode brings listeners into "Ernstfall," a high-stakes, meticulously simulated war game hosted at Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg. Former officials, military leaders, and diplomats role-play the German government and Kremlin leadership to game out a hypothetical Russian incursion into Lithuania and to test Europe’s readiness for crises without reliable American leadership. The simulation, first released in German earlier this year, is now presented in English, offering unprecedented transparency and public insight into the decision-making challenges confronting Berlin, Brussels, and the wider transatlantic alliance.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Premise: Russian Threat, Diminished US Support

• Backdrop: Russian troops mass on Lithuania’s border, threatening a cross-border incursion. The US, under President Trump, is no longer a predictable security partner.
  • Donald Trump (archival): “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.” [02:23]
• Real-World Consequence: The reliability of NATO’s Article 5 is suddenly, publicly in doubt, placing new burdens on Germany and allies.

2. The War Game Setup

• Participants: Ex-ministers, retired generals, career diplomats. (e.g., Peter Tauber as Chancellor, Roderick Kiesewetter as Defense Minister, Eberhard Son as Inspector General, Alexander Gabuyev as Russian President)
• Blue Team: Simulates German federal cabinet and agencies responding to hybrid aggression.
• Red Team: Simulates the Russian leadership’s strategies, both overt and covert.
• Objective: Test decision-making, coordination, and readiness—expose weak links.

3. The Scenario: Hybrid War on Multiple Fronts

• Disinformation & Military Pressure:
  • Lithuania refuses a so-called “humanitarian convoy” through its territory, suspecting military intent.
  • Russian media and AI-generated clips accuse German troops of abusing Russian-speaking youth in Lithuania—a manufactured provocation.
  • "German soldiers are beating Russian kids just because they spoke Russian. Eighty years ago, Germans came with tanks. Now they come with NATO." —AI-generated Russian propaganda influencer [15:03]
• Cyber Attacks:
  • Massive hit on Germany's savings banks: online banking outages, ATMs fail, sparking public anxiety and bank runs.
  • Irene Mihaly: "We are currently under attack. The cyber attack on the central IT provider of Germany's saving banks targets critical infrastructure." [18:42]

4. Government (Blue Team) Response: Fragmented and Cautious

• Chancellor Peter Tauber tries to set priorities: public communication, population protection, Bundeswehr readiness, and diplomatic overtures.
  • “We have two central areas of action. First, we need to respond publicly [...] Second, what measures are needed to protect the population?” [16:08]
• Ministries are preoccupied by their portfolios: finance scrambles for cash logistics, interior worried about police coordination, defense navigates multinational military uncertainty in Lithuania.
  • Michael Roth: “We need to clarify quickly what cash reserves are available… when people stand in front of an empty ATM, it unsettles them.” [19:21]
• Realization dawns: Germany’s federal system hampers rapid crisis response; responsibility is diffused, quick action is unlikely without exceptional coordination.
  • Irene Mihaly: "Securing cash reserves [...] is not something the federal government can simply order on its own. It requires coordination with the federal states..." [19:38]

5. Russian (Red Team) Strategy: Speed, Ambiguity, and Fracturing Unity

• Alexander Gabuyev (as Russian President): “We want to fracture NATO’s unity.” [23:56]
  • Russia’s advantage is centralization and the element of surprise; Europe is slow, distracted by legalities, bureaucracy, and coalition sensitivities.
• Franz Stefan Gardi (as Russian Military Chief): "Ultimately, this is not about the Baltic states. It is about reshaping Europe's security architecture..." [25:46]
  • “We want a European security architecture that closely resembles the one in place in 1997, meaning no permanent NATO forces stationed in Eastern Europe.” [27:07]
  • Russia can “establish fire control over the Suwaki Gap without having to deploy troops directly into Lithuania.” [28:07]
• Kinetic actions are disguised as “humanitarian” missions or justified by false claims, creating uncertainty and hesitation in NATO responses.

6. Existential Stakes and European Vulnerability

• Alexander Gabuyev: “If [Putin] wakes up one morning [...] and says, in three months we are marching into the Baltics, who in the Russian government is going to tell him, sir, you’re out of your mind[?]” [24:40]
• On timing: “When the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will have a massive army, larger than before the war and with extensive recent combat experience. Europe, by contrast, has only just begun to rearm. This gap in time is extremely dangerous.” [25:03]
• Underlines the urgency for Europe to prepare as deterrence wanes and US commitment is uncertain.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On escalation:
  • Peter Tauber: “Perhaps we should sink a ship. I mean, we're past the point of just summoning the Russian ambassador, aren't we?” [00:05]
• On Russian intent:
  • Peter Tauber: “To make the Baltics Russian.” [00:23, 00:29]
  • Roderick Kiesewetter: “I'd rather say to demonstrate NATO and the EU's inability to act...” [00:25]
• On EU self-reliance:
  • Irene Mihaly & Ursula von der Leyen (as voiced): “Europeans must defend ourselves and we must depend on ourselves.” [02:00]
• On public confusion and propaganda:
  • “In today’s world, what matters is not always what is true, but what people believe. And Russia knows exactly how to shape its own narrative.” [14:01]
• On German leadership anxiety:
  • Peter Tauber: “I never wanted to sit in this chair because I know someone who sat in it for 16 years. Now, at least in this war game, I get to.” [07:54]

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:05-00:31]: Audio dramatization of a German crisis meeting as war game begins
• [01:25-02:23]: Excerpts from global leaders (Mark Rutte, Mark Carney, Ursula von der Leyen), setting international scene
• [02:23-04:57]: Framing of US disengagement, NATO worries, media reaction to the war game
• [07:24-09:07]: Introduction of Blue Team (German government roles) and Red Team (the Kremlin)
• [11:46-13:35]: Russian military buildup, Lithuanian anxieties, first “hybrid” incidents
• [14:01-15:18]: Disinformation campaign and propaganda narratives take hold
• [15:18-15:46]: Cyber attacks disrupt German banking, trigger public fears
• [16:08-20:04]: Cabinet deliberations show fragmented, slow government reaction
• [23:56-28:19]: Russian team deliberation, strategic aims, and military-legal ambiguity

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Tone & Conclusion

The episode weaves together tense, rapid-fire role plays, expert analysis, and reflective narration. It is clear, analytical, and at times chillingly matter-of-fact—mirroring the gravity of the scenario and the seriousness with which the participants take the simulation. The underlying message is both instructive and sobering: without transatlantic certainty, European security is uncertain, slow-moving, and perilous—especially as adversaries exploit ambiguity and information warfare.

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Closing Insight

The public war game raises vital, unresolved questions that animate Brussels and every national capital in Europe: Is Germany prepared to lead in a real crisis? Can European democracies respond in time amid disinformation, hybrid operations, and political division? The next episodes promise deeper dives into these critical dilemmas.

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Transcript

[Peter Tauber]

Perhaps we should sink a ship. I mean, we're past the point of just summoning the Russian ambassador, aren't we?

[Roderick Kiesewetter]

Strictly speaking, it could justify an attack, but we shouldn't do them that favor.

[Peter Tauber]

The Russians will not be deterred if we throw cotton wool at them.

[Irene Mihaly]

Can anyone at this table assess what the Russians actually want? What is their objective?

[Peter Tauber]

To make the Baltics Russian.

[Roderick Kiesewetter]

I'd rather say to demonstrate NATO and the EU's inability to act and then

[Peter Tauber]

to make the Baltics Russian.

[Michael Roth]

I am urging you. This is now a matter for the very top level. You need to speak with Trump directly.

[Irene Mihaly]

You are the Chancellor now, Mr. Tauber. I believe you can do.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Is. Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Dawn breaks over Berlin's government district. Lights are on in the Federal Chancellery. The Chancellor has convened his most senior ministers and advisors for an emerg. The Russian troops are amassed at the Lithuanian border, apparently preparing to cross into NATO territory. The scenario is fictional, but it is not far fetched in security and political leadership circles. There is broad agreement on one point. Russia seeks to reassert itself as a dominant power in Europe.

[Mark Rutte]

We are Russia's next target and we are already in harm's way.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

This was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney put it

[Mark Carney]

this Every day we're reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can and the weak must suffer what they must.

[Christiane Hoffmann]

The reality of this world means we

[Irene Mihaly]

Europeans must defend ourselves and we must depend on ourselves.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

That was the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. From a European perspective, another factor adds to the uncertainty. The United States no longer appears predictable as a security partner under President Donald Trump.

[Donald Trump]

No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Against that backdrop, we ran an experiment. It is a Monday morning in December 2025. We are inside a classroom at Helmut Schmidt University, the University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg. Microphones stand at each seat around a U shaped table. In front of them are nameplates Federal Chancellor, Defense Minister, Intelligence Chief. But this is not the real cabinet. Instead, we gathered retired military leaders, former top officials, diplomats and security experts and asked them to take on the roles of Germany's federal government and its allies. For one day, a second team plays the Kremlin. They face off against each other. We wanted to Understand what would happen if Russia attacked NATO? At the end of the day, only one team will have achieved its strategic objectives. My name is Carolina Druten. I am the international security correspondent at the German media outlet Welt. This is Ernst. What if Russia attacks NATO? Inside a German war game Episode 1 Deception. We first published the German version of this podcast on February 5, 2026. It sparked a wide debate in Germany and beyond about Europe's readiness, NATO's cohesion and Germany's ability to lead in a crisis.

[Mark Rutte]

Tonight there is concerning news about NATO's reported weakness against a potential Russian invasion.

[Michael Roth]

The German newspaper Die Welt organized a war game.

[Mark Carney]

A new war game tests German reaction time.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Should Russia take advantage of gaps in NATO protections? A high level war game, recently conducted by German publication Welt in cooperation with the Helmut Schmidt University of the German army, suggests Europe would struggle to respond.

[Mark Rutte]

And when it comes to the wealth exercise, we do not know all the specifics of the war game. I can assure you we are well prepared.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Those reactions show that the questions that our war game raised go far beyond Germany. It's why we decided to produce an English version of this podcast. A war game is in essence, a thought experiment. People step into specific roles, for example, members of the German government or representatives of the Kremlin, and work through a crisis scenario. The idea is you try to think through a real emergency before it actually happens because identifying weaknesses in advance helps address them. It's a bit like a fire drill. If the fire brigade arrives too late at a burning house, the response is reviewed and the plans are improved. Governments and militaries conduct these kinds of simulations all the time. The difference in our case is their findings usually remain classified. We decided to make ours public because how decisions are made in a crisis and what those decisions are concerns all of us. In recent years, journalists have begun experimenting with public war games as well. One notable example was the war game by Sky News, which explored how Britain might respond to a Russian attack. We wanted this experiment to be run with the same level of professionalism as the closed door simulations held in ministries or in parliament. That's why we asked the German Wargaming center to support the project. It is based at Helmut Schmidt University, the University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg. They normally design and conduct wargames for companies, government ministries and other public institutions. In the months leading up to the simulation, they closely advised us on the game day itself. They are responsible for adjudication. They structure the process and document the participants decisions. On one side is the blue team it represents friendly forces, in our case, the German Federal Government. This team is led by the German Chancellor. In the original simulation, most participants spoke German. For this version, we translated their original statements into English and had them voiced by fellow journalists.

[Peter Tauber]

We have a shared objective to push back against Russia, to support our allies and to make clear that Germany is ready to play an active role in the war game.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Peter Tauber plays the role of the Chancellor. As former Secretary General of the Christian Democratic Union, he worked closely with former Chancellor Angela Merkel. He later served as State Secretary at the Ministry of Defence. He left politics in 2021, but he is now stepping back into that world for one day.

[Peter Tauber]

I never wanted to sit in this chair because I know someone who sat in it for 16 years. Now, at least in this war game, I get to.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

As Chancellor, his task is to hold everything together. He has to steer his government through the crisis, make decisions under time pressure, and at the same time ensure that Germany presents a united front to the outside world. In order for our participants to be able to speak openly. There are no sitting ministers or current office holders at the table. Everyone here, though, can draw from experience. They know how to navigate a crisis, but they do not have to worry about classified information or the sensitivities of a governing coalition.

[Michael Roth]

Yes, Joerg Asmussen. Today I'm the Finance Minister, Christiane Hoffmann.

[Christiane Hoffmann]

In my most recent role, I served as Deputy Government Spokesperson in the previous German coalition government.

[Roderick Kiesewetter]

My name is Roderick kiesewater. I spent 30 years in the Bundeswehr. I'm a retired colonel and I've been a member of the Bundestag since 2009.

[Eberhard Son]

Ebert son. In this war game, I'm serving as the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr. That was my role in real life as well.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

You'll get to know the rest of the group later. This blue team faces the red team in the war, the Russians.

[Alexander Gabuyev]

My name is Alexander Gabuyev. I'm the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia center in Berlin. And today I'm the Russian President.

[Peter Tauber]

My name is Arndt Freitag von Loringhoven. I am a former German diplomat and today I am the Russian Foreign Minister.

[Franz Stefan Gardi]

My name is Franz Stefan Gardi. I'm a military analyst, and today I'm the Russian military chief.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

As the United States scales back its security commitments in Europe, expecting the Continent to take responsibility for its own defence, Germany, Europe's largest economy, is playing a pivotal role in a crisis in the Baltics. It would be NATO's logistical backbone and one of its decisive political Actors. Berlin has also vowed to build the strongest conventional army on the continent. But is Germany ready to lead? For our simulation, we developed a scenario. It is entirely fictional, but not far fetched. To make it plausible, we sought input from politicians, military officers, analysts, Ukraine experts and specialists from Lithuania. At this point, I want to stress one we are not trying to predict the future. This scenario is not meant to generate fear or to fuel escalation. It is a tool to test how Germany would function in a real emergency. Where we are capable of acting and where we aren't. The scenario you're about to hear concludes in October 2026. Imagine that in the months leading up to then. Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire. Negotiators on both sides sign a deal that freezes the current frontline. At the same time, the Kremlin launches a charm offensive. It offers Germany long term gas contracts at discounts of up to 20% and promotes investment in eastern German industry. Russian state media suggest that in Europe, only Germany can open a new phase of cooperation. In the Baltics, however, tensions are rising. Russia and Belarus begin a military exercise near the Lithuanian border. It is now September 2026. The news broadcasts you are about to hear were generated with artificial intelligence.

[News Reporter]

Despite the official announcement of a full withdrawal, around 12,000 Russian troops remain stationed in western Belarus. After the Zapad 2026 exercise in Vilnius, concern is growing that Moscow intends to expand expand its presence along NATO's border on a permanent basis.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Lithuanians are uneasy. Russia has used military exercises as a cover for military action before. During the SAPAD 2021 drills, Moscow moved large amounts of equipment into Belarus. In February 2022, Russian and Belarusian forces were positioned unusually close to the Ukrainian border. During another exercise shortly afterward, the assault on Kyiv began. In our simulation, SAPAD 2026 does not look like a routine drill from Lithuania's perspective, but like the prelude to something larger. Shortly afterward, the Kremlin claims, without providing any evidence, that a humanitarian emergency is unfolding in Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is a Russian explanation enclave on the Baltic Sea, a small piece of Russian territory cut off from the rest of the country. To reach it by land, goods have to pass through Lithuania or Belarus. Moscow demands passage for what it calls a humanitarian convoy across Lithuanian territory. The Lithuanian government refuses. It fears the trucks may be carrying military equipment. Ever since that moment, lorries with unknown cargo have been lining up on the Belarusian side of the border. And then something else happens.

[News Reporter]

Two police officers have been killed near the Belarusian border. In Lithuania, according to authorities, a freight train Arriving from Moscow, made an unscheduled stop. A patrol unit inspected the train and encountered armed men who opened fire. Lithuania's intelligence service says the suspects may be Russian special forces infiltrated for sabotage operations.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Suddenly, a video appears online that puts Germany at the center of the crisis. It shows men in uniform. They are allegedly abusing Russian speaking teenagers in northeastern Lithuania. Russian state media claim that the men are German soldiers. Shortly afterward, Moscow demands the immediate withdrawal of the German brigade stationed in Lithuania. The video is fake, though German troops were not present at the time in question. But it is too late. The propaganda machine is already in motion. In today's world, what matters is not always what is true, but what people believe. And Russia knows exactly how to shape its own narrative. In our simulation, we therefore also recreate the Russian disinformation space. There the story sounds very different. Like in this clip from an influencer, also generated with artificial intelligence.

[Eberhard Son]

German soldiers are beating Russian kids just because they spoke Russian. Eighty years ago, Germans came with tanks. Now they come with NATO. Is that defense or is that preparation for a war against Russian people?

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Then the online banking system used by millions of customers at Germany savings banks goes down. Some ATMs stop working as well. The cause is a cyber attack on the bank's central IT service provider. Who is behind it is initially unclear. The final day our scenario describes is Tuesday, October 27th. Early morning at the Federal Chancellery. For hours, reports have been coming in from Vilnius, Warsaw and Brussels. Lithuania has informed Berlin that Russian troops are in combat formation along the Belarusian border. Once everyone has taken their seats around the table, the Chancellor opens the meeting.

[Peter Tauber]

From my perspective, we have two central areas of action. First, we need to respond publicly. What narrative do we present? What explanation do we give the people in Germany? Second, and this concerns me just as much, what measures are needed to protect the population? What steps can the Bundeswehr take internally to ensure it can act quickly if necessary? And are there additional areas, particularly in foreign policy towards Poland and other neighbors, where we need to act now? I would welcome input from the respective experts around this table.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

The Defence Minister picks up the thread. He is played by Roderik Kiesewetter, a member of the Bundestag for the Christian Democratic Union.

[Roderick Kiesewetter]

Thank you, Mr. Chancellor. First of all, I see that our Bundeswehr forces in Lithuania are under intense pressure. I strongly advise that, in coordination with the Foreign Minister, we send a clear signal to the Lithuanian public and beyond that our soldiers are in full accordance with the law.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Eberhard Son also addresses the situation of the German armed forces in Lithuania. As Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, he is Germany's highest ranking soldier and serves as the federal government's senior military advisor.

[Eberhard Son]

We are currently in the process of building up the brigade in Lithuania to full strength. That means we have two German battalions stationed there.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Once fully built up, the brigade will consist of three combat units, two German units and one made up of troops from various NATO countries under German command. That means Germany has to coordinate closely with the other contributing nations.

[Eberhard Son]

As far as I know, the Netherlands and Norway are contributing troops there. That means we should first sit down with our multinational partners at the military level and compare assessments both of the operational situation and of the political intentions of their governments.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

The government spokesperson, Christiane Hoffmann gives an overview of how the situation is portrayed in the press.

[Christiane Hoffmann]

Let me begin with a brief look at the current media reporting. I would say the coverage so far has been appropriate and relatively restrained. The video involving the Bundeswehr in Lithuania is being correctly identified as disinformation and as fake.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

The Interior Minister then takes the floor. In the simulation, the role is played by Irene Mihaly, a member of Parliament from the Green party.

[Irene Mihaly]

Thank you, Mr. Chancellor. I would like to point out that we are currently under attack. The cyber attack on the central IT provider of Germany's saving banks targets critical infrastructure. In my view, we need to determine whether the server outage is affecting not only the online banking of millions of customers and roughly a third of ATMs, but also potentially our broader economic capacity.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

The finance minister, played by the economist Joerg Asmussen, is also concerned about the partial outage at the savings banks. At the moment, millions of customers are unable to access their online accounts.

[Michael Roth]

One third of the ATMs are not working. We need to clarify quickly what cash reserves are available at Germany's central bank and whether additional cash could be transported to Germany from neighboring countries at short notice. Because when people stand in front of an empty atm, it unsettles them.

[Irene Mihaly]

Securing cash reserves also falls under police powers to prevent and avert danger. And that is not something the federal government can simply order on its own. It requires coordination with the federal states, for example, to secure cash transports and to manage access to cash. Even if we were to advise people to withdraw more cash as a precaution, I do not want to see a repeat of what we experienced during the pandemic.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Germany is a federal system. Many internal security responsibilities lie within the 16 federal states, not with the national government. That means that Berlin cannot simply issue orders. It has to coordinate. Lines are forming at ATMs across Germany, in Duisburg, Magdeburg, Augsburg, the scenes look the same. Everywhere. People are worried about their savings. They are withdrawing more cash than usual. In some places, tensions are rising.

[Peter Tauber]

Do we have any indication that what the financial sector is experiencing right now originated in Russia?

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

The intelligence chief response in real life, Gerhard Konrad served as an officer of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, bnd.

[Christiane Hoffmann]

The timing and the way this operation fits into the broader buildup of hybrid measures in recent months suggests that. That it does. We have to operate on that assumption.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

Inside the Blue team, the focus is scattered. Each ministry is concentrating on its own immediate concerns. The cyber attack, the savings banks, the public mood in Germany, the brigade in Lithuania. Then the Foreign Minister asks to speak.

[Michael Roth]

Mr. Chancellor, dear colleagues, I'm not sure everyone here is grasping the seriousness of the situation.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

This is Michael Roth, a long serving foreign policy figure from the Social Democratic Party. He previously served as a Minister of State for Europe at Germany's Foreign Office.

[Michael Roth]

Before this meeting, I spoke with my Lithuanian counterpart. They are deeply shaken. They expect a clear signal of solidarity from us.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

And now in Lithuania, there is fear that Ukraine was only the beginning and that the Baltic states could be next on the Kremlin's list. In reality, phone lines now would be buzzing in capitals across Europe and beyond. Not only Lithuania would be reacting. NATO would already be launching political consultations and military planning. In our war game, we deliberately focus on the response of the German Federal government, not because other actors are unimportant, but because any simulation has limits and because we want to understand one central Is Germany prepared for a real crisis? And where do our weaknesses lie? We have, however, assigned several key international the US Secretary of State, the NATO Secretary General, the Polish Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission. On the day of the war game, they are not present in Hamburg, but join individual calls from Washington, Brussels and Warsaw, just as they would in reality. You will get to know them over the next episodes. One more important point. Before the simulation began, participants received only the scenario as preparation. On the day itself, they act freely. My colleagues and I are present as observers, but we do not interfere. There are, however, rules. The war game has four rounds and each round must end with decisions to which then the other side can respond. During the simulation, the Blue team, representing the German government, is separated from the Red team, representing Russia, by a narrow corridor. The teams cannot hear each other. On the Russian side, three men sit around a table and deliberate. The President sums up their plans.

[Alexander Gabuyev]

We want to fracture NATO's unity.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

The man speaking here knows Putin's system from the inside. Most participants in the English version of this podcast are voiced by fellow journalists, but the voice you are hearing here belongs to Alexander Gabuyev himself. Kabuyev grew up in Moscow. As a young journalist, he reported from the center of Russian power, the Kremlin. Between 2007 and 2014, he met Vladimir Putin, spoke with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and traveled with then President Dmitry Medvedev and Gabuyev. No one will stop Putin from attacking another country if he believes he can get away with it.

[Alexander Gabuyev]

If he wakes up one morning, whether in the Kremlin or at his residence outside Moscow, and says, in three months we are marching into the Baltics, who in the Russian government is going to tell him, sir, you're out of your mind. That's too dangerous. We are not doing it.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

According to that logic, this is the most dangerous moment.

[Alexander Gabuyev]

When the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will have a massive army, larger than before the war and with extensive recent combat experience. Europe, by contrast, has only just begun to rearm. This gap in time is extremely dangerous.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

And it is precisely this window that our war game explores. Gabuyev and his two colleagues have to think like the man in the Kremlin. Their objective is not simply territory. It is to render NATO unable to act now. Franz Stefan Gardi speaks. He is an Austrian military analyst. In the simulation, he plays Russia's military chief.

[Franz Stefan Gardi]

Ultimately, this is not about the Baltic states. It is about reshaping Europe's security architecture so that it aligns more closely with our interests than the current one does. To achieve that, we have to weaken NATO and undermine the European Union at its foundations.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

What Gadi is describing mirrors what Vladimir Putin himself has demanded. Shortly before launching the full scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president gave a televised address in which he laid out what he called his core demands to the west.

[Roderick Kiesewetter]

And finally, rolling back the bloc's military capability and infrastructure in Europe to where they were in 1997 when the NATO Russia Founding act was signed.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

That would mean rolling back the alliance to a time before Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, or the Baltic states had joined. No NATO combat troops, no bases, no infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe. In effect, it would create a security order in which Russia helps decide which countries are protected and which are not. In the war game, the Russian military chief defines precisely that as the objective.

[Franz Stefan Gardi]

Our objective remains the same. We want a European security architecture that closely resembles the one in place in 1997, meaning no permanent NATO forces stationed in Eastern Europe.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

The Red Team believes it holds the upper hand.

[Franz Stefan Gardi]

Our advantage is speed, the ability to make decisions quickly. In that regard, we are certainly ahead of Germany and NATO.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

While democracies have to debate and balance competing interests, decision making in the Kremlin is far more centralized.

[Franz Stefan Gardi]

The president wants us to establish a humanitarian corridor.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

A brief Moscow claims that Kaliningrad is facing a humanitarian emergency and uses that as justification for what it calls a relief convoy. Trucks from Belarus are supposed to cross Lithuanian territory to deliver alleged aid supplies to the Russian exclave.

[Franz Stefan Gardi]

Let me stress one point from a purely military perspective. We can establish fire control over the Suwaki Gap without having to deploy troops directly into Lithuania.

[Narrator (Carolina Druten)]

What the Russian team is outlining amounts to nothing less than an invasion of Lithuania, an attack on a NATO member state, even if Moscow tries to disguise it as a humanitarian measure. German troops are stationed in Lithuania as well. The question now is whether the German government recognizes what is coming and if, together with its allies, it can prevent it. That is what Episode two is about. This was Ernstfahl what if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German War Game the series consists of five episodes. If you have any questions or remarks, write us an email to wargameld.de. that's wargame welt.de. script and Carolina Druten and Antonia Beckermann Production and Sound design Marvin Schwarz Project Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Druten and Caroline Torza Research Jan Rosenkrans Academic guidance Jose Verbowski and Philip Janschaffer from the German Wargaming center at Helmut Schmidt University, the Bundeswehr University in Hamburg. Cover design Dominic Schmidt Our special thanks go to the participants of the war David MacAllister, Joerg Asmussen, Gerhard Konrad, Alexander Gabuyev, Franz Stefan Gardi, Christiana Hoffmann, Roderic Kiesewetter, Badwamme Kott, Ant Freitag von Loringhofen, Oana Lungescu, Irene Mihalic, Jeff Radke, Michael Roth, Peter Tauber, Christoph Unger and Eberhard Sorn. We're grateful to the fellow journalists who lend their voices to the English language version of our German participants. Daniel Durin Boehmer, Stephanie Bolson, Francis Darnley, Henry Donovan, Jacob Eckstein, Philipp Fritz, Eric Kirschbaum, Chris Lundi, Nicholas Potter, James Rothwell and Constantin Schreiber. We would also like to thank the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg for providing the venue, as well as Alan Edwards, Malena Bardun, Tobias Grabowf Til Henninges, Karl Hofnagel, Elias Jakob, Thorsten Kodalle, Nico Lange and Wim Ort for their support on site and Nana Brink, Kai Brinkmann and Niels Lange for their valuable contributions to the conceptual discussions.