Can Europe’s big five get their act together in Berlin?

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast: Can Europe’s Big Five Get Their Act Together in Berlin?

Date: June 24, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Ian Wishart (Senior EU Politics Editor)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the high-stakes E5 summit of Europe’s five major military powers—France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK—taking place in Berlin ahead of the upcoming NATO summit. The discussion unpacks what this new format means for European defense, EU unity, and the shifting political landscape. The show also explores the controversial new EU migrant return centers set to be established outside Europe, and examines the recent heatwave’s links to climate policy and infrastructure.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The E5 Summit: Europe's Security at a Crossroads

[01:18 – 06:55]

• What is E5?

  • Ian Wishart clarifies the group comprises leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK.

    “Five countries, five leaders... which goes back to what I was saying yesterday — it’s almost as if Brexit didn’t happen. Or does it mean the EU is irrelevant?”
    — Ian Wishart [01:26]

• Why Now?

  • The E5 originated as a defense ministers’ forum in 2024, now escalated to the leader level, spurred by uncertainty about US support and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
  • Zoya Sheftalovich emphasizes EU defense spending and the frustration over America’s lessened security umbrella:

    “Europe is now investing so much more in its defense... the US is not providing the same level of support as it has before. So yeah, this is all of that.”
    — Zoya [02:16–02:36]

• Not Just the “Big Three”:

  • Italy and Poland, previously excluded from key security formats, have lobbied to be involved:

    “Poland and Italy were a bit moaning... So this is them saying, hey, we're in on this.”
    — Zoya [03:21]

• Preparing for NATO and Future Security

  • The summit is a run-up to July’s NATO meeting in Turkey (7–8 July), with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte joining virtually.

    “They’re coordinating kind of a European position going into the summit...”
    — Zoya [03:55]

• What It Means for EU Unity

  • Concerns EU-wide about five leaders meeting outside the normal structures:

    “Does that have an effect? Do they question that at all?”
    — Ian [04:23]

  • Zoya notes private frustration among other EU leaders and officials, particularly around who “speaks for Europe” on issues like Russia.

    “You witnessed in private leaders actually being really furious, didn’t you?”
    — Ian [06:13]

  • Zoya:

    “Storm clouds were brewing on some of their faces.” [06:28]

2. Migrant Return Centers Outside Europe: Controversy and Consequences

[07:01 – 11:29]

• POLITICO Scoop:

  • The EU plans to set up detention centers outside Europe for migrants denied asylum. Potential countries: Rwanda, Uganda, Uzbekistan.

    “Those countries are quite interesting. So it’s Rwanda, Uganda and Uzbekistan are among the mix...”
    — Zoya [07:47]

• Context and Controversy

  • Ian notes,

    “Rwanda, particularly interesting... that’s the country the UK tried to set one of these hubs in. And it didn’t quite work, did it?” [07:58]

  • Zoya explains the policy’s political logic:

    “It’s not a question of whether it works from the perspective of, like, how many migrants you get. It’s a question of whether it works as a deterrent... to show that you’re tough on failed asylum seekers.” [08:06–08:44]

• Human Rights Backlash

  • International organizations concerned about “legal black holes” and human rights abuses.

    “The International Rescue Committee... said these detention centers are ‘essentially legal black holes which risk human rights violations.’ So it’s really controversial, Zoya.”
    — Ian [09:44]

  • Zoya highlights Australia’s harsh experience with offshore centers:

    “The reports of the sorts of things that were happening in those detention centers were very worrying. And the UN repeatedly found that they contravened human rights laws.” [10:05]

• Next Steps

  • No final decisions; plans are being negotiated with an aim to launch centers in 2027, driven by countries such as Denmark, Austria, Greece, Germany, and the Netherlands.

    “It’s important for them for their electoral kind of performance.”
    — Zoya [11:29]

3. Why Europe Is (Literally) Boiling: Heatwave Politics

[11:29 – 13:42]

• Historic Heat and Poor Infrastructure

  • The latest heatwave brings attention to Europe’s vulnerability, with Zia Weise (climate team) identifying three drivers: climate change, bad infrastructure, and political failures.

    “Global temperatures have increased by about 1.4 degrees Celsius since humans started burning fossil fuels.”
    — Ian [11:56]

• Europe: Fastest Warming Continent

  • Zoya:

    “Europe is actually the world’s fastest warming continent. So we’re in trouble.” [12:08]

  • Old building designs “keep heat in, not out,” and only 20% of households have air conditioning.

• Infrastructure Failing, Policy Lagging

  • Train networks canceling services; politicians struggle to balance deregulation and climate action.

    “A lot of that is... at the cost of climate change rules, action, progress... So it’s all about getting the balance right.”
    — Ian [13:22]

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Memorable Quotes & Light Moments

• On the E5 summit’s implications for EU unity:

  “It feeds into that debate we were having last week about who speaks for Europe with Russia, doesn’t it?”
  — Ian [04:44]

• On migrants and offshore centers:

  “Is that what it’s all about? Sending a message to the electorate?”
  — Ian [08:44]
  “I think that is a really large part of it…”
  — Zoya [08:47]

• On the climate crisis distraction:

  “Ukraine, Iran, Halloumi. All of that is distracting us from something that’s probably even more important than all of that.”
  — Ian [12:20]

• Listener’s Winnie the Pooh analogy for the hosts:

  “Zoya is Tigger, Ian Wishart is Eeyore, Sarah Weishan is Piglet, and Nick Vineker is Pooh... as you take us all on a journey through the hundred acre wood of European politics.”
  — Angus, listener voice note [13:59]

• Classic Eeyore sign-off:

  “Good morning... That’s if it is a good morning, and I doubt it. I think maybe that's how we should end the podcast today.”
  — Ian [14:29]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• E5 Summit – What & Why: [01:18–06:55]
• EU Migrant Return Centers: [07:01–11:29]
• Climate, Heat, and Policy: [11:29–13:42]
• Listener Light Moment (Winnie the Pooh): [13:59]

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Summary

Today’s episode unpacks the evolution of European security with the E5 summit—an informal gathering now at the highest political level—against a backdrop of waning US involvement and urgent defense demands over Ukraine. The power dynamics between the EU’s institutional machinery and coalitions of willing states are laid bare, highlighting a deepening debate over Europe’s voice on foreign and defense policy. Shifting to migration, the hosts break the news on planned offshore detention centers and the balance (or lack thereof) between deterrence, politics, and human rights. Finally, the show turns to the relentless heatwave, diagnosing it as both a climate emergency and a symptom of political and infrastructural malaise, all while grounding the news in the relatable, conversational tone listeners love.

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Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is presented by Team Poland. Team Poland is a one stop shop offered by six Polish development institutions to unlock global potential of Polish companies and their international partners.

[B]

Good morning. It's Wednesday, June 24, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is defensive as some of Europe's biggest military powers meet ahead of the NATO summit next month. Also on the pod, following the EU striking new migrant return laws, there are going to be some centers set up in countries outside of Europe and we know which ones. Plus, it's getting very hot in here. And we also tell you why that is.

[C]

Probably because of the weather, isn't it?

[B]

Well, yes, but. And global warming, I suppose, but nuanced. Yeah, it is a little more nuanced than that. I'm Zoya Shevtolovic and with me today is Ian Wishart. He's our senior EU politics editor. Hey, Ian.

[C]

Hello, Zoya.

[B]

I see you've got a T shirt on today.

[C]

It takes a lot for me to wear a T shirt. You're quite right. But seeing as the thermometer's above 35 degrees, I think. No, don't look. Don't look below.

[B]

Checking if you've gone the full Nick Vinica route. And you're wearing shorts, too, but it's not that dire yet.

[C]

Nobbly knees today.

[B]

All right, Ian, let's talk about something serious. The E5 summit. It's happening in Berlin today. We. What is the E5? Do you know?

[C]

I do, yeah. Five countries, five leaders. France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK which goes back to what I was saying yesterday. It's almost as if Brexit didn't happen. Or does it mean that the EU is irrelevant?

[B]

Does it indeed?

[C]

Discuss.

[B]

Let's do that. Well, basically, Friedrich Merz is hosting his fellow leaders from those countries. So it's Emmanuel Macron, Giorgio Maloney, Donald Tusken, Keir Starmer. Yes, still Keir Starmer for now. And they are going to be meeting for the first time at the leaders level. This E5 group, because previously it was really mainly operating as a defense minister kind of gathering. Now they're going to the leaders level. This was created back in 2024, basically bringing Europe's big military powers together because.

[C]

Prompted by Ukraine more than anything. Well, I mean, it's prompted by Donald Trump really, isn't it?

[B]

Yeah, it's all of the above. It's the fact that Europe is now investing so much more in its defense. It's got this safe program where it's got loans for defense Industry, it's got all sorts of money that's being pumped into defense and it has to deal with this fact that the US is not providing the same level of support as it has before. So yeah, this is all of that.

[C]

This is maybe a question 20 years too late, but is it a sign of the EU at 27 or 28 as it was, is just too unwieldy?

[B]

Well, I think the way that these folks would put it is it's not about being unwieldy, it's about gathering groups of like minded countries together and getting on the same page. And particularly because this is like minded though, on defense. Yeah, these are the big spenders on defense and they are also big Ukraine backers. And I think the UK plays a big part, obviously from the perspective of the fact that, you know, nuclear umbrella, the US is not providing that so much or at least it technically is, but people in Europe think maybe it isn't.

[C]

So it is interesting though, isn't it, that they've expanded it out of that traditional E, the big three, into including Poland and, and Italy. That, that is, that is quite a development, actually.

[B]

It is. And actually it's because Poland and Italy were a bit moaning. Yeah, yeah. They've been moaning about not being involved in this E3 format which has also been meeting and you'll remember from our various talks about what happens if there's a negotiation when it comes to peace in the Ukraine war. The E3 is one of the groups that is being considered as playing some sort of role at the table. But Italy and Poland was annoyed by that. So this is them saying, hey, we're

[C]

in on officially this meeting today is designed to prepare the NATO summit in Turkey next month, isn't it? 7th and 8th of July.

[B]

Absolutely. And that's why the NATO Secretary General, Mark Ruto will be joining by video link as well. And it's also to talk about how they're all doing with this 5% GDP spending on defense goal that they signed up to by 2035. And basically they're coordinating kind of a European position going into the summit because we know that when there's an ATRIA summit, if there's, there's a big splash from the U.S. you know, maybe Donald Trump is going to accuse NATO allies of shirking their responsibilities again. So they want to get on the

[C]

page all about being on the same page. Yeah. And what do the diplomats and officials that you speak to here, Zoya, think of it from a European Union point of view? The fact that five Leaders are meeting away from the EU circles. Does that have an effect? Do they question that at all?

[B]

Well, officially no one wants to say we have a problem with this until they do.

[C]

It feeds into that debate we were having last week about who speaks for Europe with Russia, doesn't it?

[B]

It does.

[C]

Is it something that the EU institutions should do on behalf of all 27? Is it something that only a leader can do? Is it something that it's the E3 or E5 or whatever? Like that's a very difficult question to answer. And it goes beyond just Russia and Ukraine and Brexit and all of this is part of the mix.

[B]

Yeah, it is. And so when I was talking to people last week, because this question of. You'll remember that before the European Council summ, just before it happened, there was a story that broke that someone in Antonio Koch's cabinet, his chef de cab, his right hand man, had called the Kremlin basically and opened a channel of communication. And in the washout from that call, which was very controversial because not all countries had been told, there was this question of like, okay, eventually we're definitely going to be talking with Putin and so who do we send from the EU side? And the controversy is, well, E3, it's obviously, it's Germany, it's Paris, it's the, the UK they are the biggest backers, probably financially speaking of Ukraine as well as on that diplomatic level. But Poland is a huge factor there as well. And the Poles don't want to be left out, so they want to be brought in. Italy is a huge EU country, they also want to be brought in. But then you've got the Baltics and the Nordics saying, hey, hold on a second, we are directly affected by this war. The drones are landing on our territory as well, so maybe we should be involved. And that's when they start saying, European Council president, EU Commission president, we've got

[C]

to involve the EU in public leaders played that down. But you witnessed in private leaders actually being really furious, didn't you?

[B]

Yeah. I mean, as furious as a leader gets when they're talking to a bunch of journalists.

[C]

Would you describe it? What did they look like?

[B]

Storm clouds were brewing on some of their faces.

[C]

So sometimes it's what we can't write but informs what we do write, we can't write it because we don't want to breach the rules of certain meetings. But when you see prime ministers or presidents personally angry about something, you know you're on the right lines, don't you?

[B]

Yeah, you do. Well, in any case, this meeting, it's happening today and we'll be having loads and loads of reporting. We've got folks who are going to be following this very closely to keep an eye on our website.

[C]

Yeah. And I suppose one of the things we're looking for is whether this format develops and whether it goes on from here.

[B]

Absolutely. And what happens when Andy Burnham steps in? Ian, this is an interesting story we've got today. It's a scoop from our colleague Sepstar Chevic, who is talking about some potential locations of detention centers that are going to be set up in the next year or two to house migrants who have been denied asylum in the EU and refused to be sent back, or who. The countries won't take them back. They're countries of origin.

[C]

Yeah. And this is happening because the EU have changed, their rules change. Just recently we saw the European Parliament give approval just a few days ago. So this has been under discussion for a while. But what we're reporting on Politico today is which countries are under consideration.

[B]

And those countries are quite interesting. So it's Rwanda, Uganda and Uzbekistan are among the mix. So there's others as well. But those are the three kind of that we know the names of.

[C]

And Rwanda, particularly interesting there because that's the country that the UK tried to set. Set up one of these hubs in. And it didn't quite work, did it?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And also of the Conservative government.

[B]

Absolutely. And it was controversial because there were court challenges and it was very, very expensive. Not a lot of migrants ended up there. So it's quite controversial because there's a question of whether it works. And actually, this is something that Emmanuel Macron said last week at the European Council summit. He said, well, I've never seen offshore detention center that works. Although what I would say from the perspective of someone who's lived in Australia, which has utilized this model in the past, it's not a question of whether it works from the perspective of, like, how many migrants you get. It's a question of whether it works as a deterrent and as sending a message to the electorate to show that you're tough on failed.

[C]

Is that what it's all about? Sending a message to the electorate?

[B]

I think that is a really large part of it, Ian, because, you know, we bang on about this all the time, but the far right is nipping at the heels of the center. The center parties are having to adopt some of the policies of the far right on migration, which is very much seen in certain parts of the EU as a Big problem. People don't have particularly warm feelings about large number of migrants coming. And so I think it is really about conveying to those people, look, we might not be the far right, but we're actually doing something about this. We're getting really tough on migration, tough on asylum seekers. And I will say that this is. It's important to note that this is people who apply for asylum in the eu, they come to the eu, they apply for asylum and then they don't get granted that asylum because for whatever reason, it's decided that they're not genuine refugees. And these are the people we're talking about returning. It's not people who are sort of applying to come to Europe to kind of get a job or who were here and who are granted refugee status.

[C]

And, of course, a lot of international organizations are very critical of these plans. While some of these governments want it, a lot of NGOs particularly against it, the International Rescue Committee, for example, said these detention centers are, quote, essentially legal black holes which risk human rights violations. So it's really controversial, Zoya.

[B]

It is. And certainly the experience that Australia had running offshore detention centres with migrants in them was pretty extreme. Like, the. The reports of the sorts of things that were happening in those detention centers were very worrying. And the UN repeatedly found that they contravened human rights laws. So I think it's by no means a kind of easy solution to this problem.

[C]

So just to just to keep listeners up to date, none of this has been decided yet. Even the countries where these hubs could be haven't been decided yet. We're talking about countries which are under discussion. The Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis has said that they want to conclude the first agreements for the creation of these structures this year, so they're operational next year. That's where we are. But it's interesting that it's got to this point where countries around the world are being approached.

[B]

Absolutely. And the countries that are kind of at the spearhead of this in the eu, it's Denmark, Austria, Greece, Germany and the Netherlands who are the strongest advocates, who really want these hubs to be open. And I've heard from various officials from those countries a similar timeline where they are thinking that this is probably doable by next year. Not a surprise that Mitsotakis wants it done by 2027. He's going to face an election, and so are a few of the other leaders of these countries as well. And it's important for them for their electoral kind of performance.

[C]

Should we talk about the Weather, then.

[B]

Zoya, what's your favorite topic? You're a British.

[C]

Yeah, I'm just looking at your sweaty face. That's what reminds me of this topic.

[B]

Oh, listener. If only that weren't real. It's too real. Ian. Listen, we've got a story up on our website today. Zia Weisser from our climate team has outlined precisely why we're feeling so hot right now. And she's got three reasons. Climate change, bad infrastructure and bad politicians.

[C]

All related, probably. And what she's saying is that global temperatures have increased by about 1.4 degrees Celsius since humans started burning fossil fuels.

[B]

When's that?

[C]

Industrial revolution. When was that? Late 1700s.

[B]

Oh, yeah. All right, there you go. Well, the scientists, they agree this heat wave is linked to climate change. And Europe is actually the world's fastest warming continent. So we're in trouble.

[C]

What is anybody going to do about this? Because it's very. We talk. We talk about so many different really important issues on this podcast, don't we? Ukraine, Iran, Halloumi. All of that is distracting us from something that's probably even more important than all of that.

[B]

Look, I think this is the problem. This is such a long term, kind of big, big issue that it was

[C]

too big, isn't it? Yeah, it is too big to get your head around.

[B]

It is. So one of the things, as Zia says in her story, one of the issues is that the European design of buildings is made to keep heat in, not out. And meanwhile, so only a fifth of households in Europe have AC installed, which like.

[C]

But doesn't more air conditioning create more climate change because it's using so much energy? So that can't be the solution, can it?

[B]

Exactly. Well, yeah, open a window. I open all the windows. Again, it doesn't help, but this is the problem. And in Belgium, for instance, you know, one fifth of the trains don't have AC at all. So the national rail company has actually had to cancel peak hour services because of how hot they have been getting, I think.

[C]

I mean, it's linked, as I said, it's linked to a lot of things we talk about, and we talk about simplification, what the EU calls simplification as well, cutting of red tape and regulation. But a lot of that is at the cost of, critics say, at the cost of climate change, rules, action, progress. Yeah, yeah. So it's all about getting the balance right and politicians getting the balance right.

[B]

Yeah. Folks, that's about it from us today, though, we do have a very amusing voice. Note that we've received on our WhatsApp. It's Angus, who's a fellow Aussie living in Europe, and here's what he has to say.

[A]

Hey guys, I just wanted to say that I love the podcast. I just wanted to share that every time I listen to you guys, it always makes me think of Winnie the Pooh. Zoya is Tigger, Ian is Ian, Wishart is Eeyore, Sarah Weishan is Piglet, and Nick Vineker is Poo. Yeah, I can't help thinking of you guys like that as you take us all on a journey through the hundred acre wood of European politics. Anyway, have a great day. Keep it up.

[C]

You know, one of Eeyore's best lines was Good morning. That's if it is a good morning, and I doubt it. I think maybe that's how we should end the podcast today.

[A]

A message from Team Poland As a partner of the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, we thank all strategic thinkers for inspiring economic dialogue. Team Poland brings together six development institutions connecting companies and investors to unlock ideas and capital and drive sustainable growth across Europe. Find us at www.teampoland.eu.