Can NATO allies avoid a clash with Trump in Ankara?

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast: “Can NATO Allies Avoid a Clash with Trump in Ankara?”

Date: July 3, 2026
Host: POLITICO’s Sarah Wheaton
Guests: Anne McElroy, Peter Snowden, Hanno Pevkor (Estonia’s Defence Minister), Victor Jack (POLITICO’s NATO reporter)

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Main Theme & Overview

As NATO leaders prepare to meet in Ankara for the annual summit, the episode explores escalating tensions between the U.S. and European allies, strained further by debates over defense spending, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and U.S. frustrations about support for operations in the Middle East. Central to the discussion is how NATO can maintain unity, especially with President Trump’s unpredictable stance, and whether European allies are rising to the challenge of collective defense.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: NATO’s Rocky Moment

• Transatlantic Tensions: Host Sarah Wheaton opens by flagging the underlying friction as NATO members convene, particularly fraught by disagreements over spending, Ukraine, and U.S. calls for greater support in the Strait of Hormuz. She asks, “Will President Trump be in listening mode?” (00:27)
• Introduction to Key Guests: Anne McElroy and Peter Snowden set context before an interview with Estonia’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkor. Victor Jack will later analyze summit expectations.

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2. Estonia’s Perspective: Hanno Pevkor Interview

Defense Spending & NATO’s Unity

• Dual Tracks for Ankara:
  Pevkor lays out twin objectives:

  • Proving NATO’s own capability build-up and spending credibility.
  • Securing deeper, long-term commitments for Ukraine.
  • “It's important...to show the unity that has kept the alliance safe... for the last close to 80 years.” (02:21)

• History of U.S. Demands:
  He downplays novelty in U.S. pressure, recalling decades of American calls for Europe to step up—Estonia itself spends over 5% of GDP on defense (not including related investments).

  • “We have to go back in history... throughout the summits we’ve heard from the American leaders that Europe has to take more responsibility. So it’s not news.” (04:02)
  • “When we have this message to our allies over the sea...it’s clear that this is exactly what they are waiting for.” (05:38)

• Unity vs. Competition:
  Pevkor emphasizes partnership over rivalry:

  • “It all comes down to the unity...it's not about the competition between us and Europe. It's about the partnership we need to take care of.” (05:55)

U.S. Criticism & Arms Procurement

• ‘Paper Tiger’ Slur:
  On U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth calling NATO a “paper tiger,” Pevkor responds, “We are all in this together... we've built NATO since ‘49 together.” (07:22)

  • “My understanding is why I've said that this, this is about the partnership. When US companies want to sell to Europe... it needs to be a partnership, not that... you are just blaming that we are not doing enough.” (08:39)

• Arms Autonomy Tensions:
  On the U.S. criticizing Europe’s reluctance but restricting missile sales:

  • “European industry sees...we need to have our sovereign capabilities also. We have so many European companies developing...cruise missiles, alternatives to Tomahawks.” (10:08)

• Turkey’s Rapid Arms Growth:
  As an example, Pevkor notes Turkey’s defense industry boomed after others refused to sell to it, paralleling Europe’s quest for independence.

Are France and the UK ‘Pulling Their Weight’?

• Budget Gaps:
  Pevkor gently critiques slower movers (France, UK), wishing for a faster pace but respecting national choices. Estonia pushes over 5% now, calls for more focus on capabilities.
  • “We've been telling that, and we will tell that also in the future that we need to increase the pace.” (13:48)

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Ukraine War: Risks and Outlook

• Ukraine’s Deepening Fight, Drones & Cross-Border Risks:

  • “Ukraine is getting better and better. Also in deep strike...they will continue pushing Russia. And this is the only way.” (15:17)
  • Pevkor insists Estonia will not allow NATO territory to be used in Ukrainian operations inside Russia.

• War Prognosis:

  • “The ability of Ukraine to push Russia more and more will be strengthened... So the only way to move forward... is that we will help Ukraine additionally and... send a very clear message to Russia that we will not stop with the assistance...for as long as it takes.” (17:13)

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3. NATO Realpolitik: Conversation between Anne McElroy and Victor Jack

Summit Management & Trump Diplomacy

• Summit Strategy:

  • “This year it's going to be more of a summit of demonstration...showing the progress... Unofficially... keep Trump happy, make sure he's in a good mood and show NATO unity.” (20:13)
  • The summit is intentionally “short and streamlined...just one core session...to make sure that Trump doesn’t get bored.” (20:13)

• Lingering U.S. Frustrations:
  Although U.S. anger over European reluctance in the Iran war has “decreased since April,” it remains a key tension point. (22:05)

• Unified Front:

  • “I think [concern about a divided NATO] is pretty shared across the alliance. There is a feeling that the US rhetoric is unhelpful.” (23:08)
  • Military-to-military cooperation is “still strong,” but uncertainty persists about the U.S. response in a real Article 5 situation.

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The Defense Spending Debate

• Big Numbers vs. Big Gaps:

  • “It’s been a $139 billion increase in defense spending since 2025... But... beneath the surface...huge discrepancy.” (24:35)
  • Frustration targets countries “not even meeting their 2% spending target,” especially Albania, Slovenia, Czechia.

• Readying for Trump’s Demands:
  The overall spending target will be foregrounded—“present monetary figures to Trump, which we all know that he enjoys”—to mask differences. (24:35)

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Ukraine: Optimism and Realpolitik

• Shift in Ukraine’s Status:

  • “As far as we understand, NATO allies will commit to €70 billion in military financing... this is huge.” (26:11)
  • Growing U.S. support for Ukraine reflects “the balance tilt in Ukraine’s favor on the battlefield,” with France’s Macron instrumental in reframing the situation for Trump.

• ‘Ukrainization’ of NATO:

  • “Here at NATO, I think there is this genuine sense that Ukraine is shifting from being, you know, a security consumer to a security provider within Europe.” (28:04)
  • Anecdote: During an exercise in Sweden, young Ukrainian drone operators “completely annihilated these NATO troops”—underscoring Ukraine’s battlefield innovation. (28:04)

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Mark Rutte’s Diplomatic Approach

• Flattery as Survival:

  • “This is now sort of his modus operandi: right? Flatter Trump in public, intensive diplomacy behind the scenes to find a compromise.” (29:26)
  • Inside NATO, Rutte’s tactics are respected, even if “in the capitals, they think this is too much...humiliating.”

• Risk of Personality Clashes:

  • “With Trump you can just never really know what surfaces...if he brings grievances around the Iran war to the table...we might see recriminations.” (30:26)

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Notable Quotes

• Anne McElroy: “Tensions between the US and European allies in NATO have rarely been higher.” (01:23)
• Hanno Pevkor: “It's not about the competition between us and Europe. It's about the partnership we need to take care of.” (05:55)
• Victor Jack: “The way that...NATO have gone about making this a success and keeping Trump happy is you’re going to have a very short and streamlined summit...so that Trump doesn’t get bored.” (20:13)
• Victor Jack: “Here at NATO, I think there is this genuine sense that Ukraine is shifting from being...a security consumer to a security provider within Europe.” (28:04)
• Hanno Pevkor: “The only way to move forward... is that we will help Ukraine additionally and we will... send a very clear message to Russia that we will not stop with the assistance...for as long as it takes.” (17:13)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:27 — Sarah Wheaton’s introduction, laying out the stakes.
• 02:09 — Start of interview with Hanno Pevkor, Estonia’s Defence Minister.
• 04:02 — Pevkor on U.S. frustration and history of burden-sharing debate.
• 07:22 — Pevkor on “paper tiger” criticism and NATO unity.
• 10:08 — Pevkor on European defense autonomy and arms industry growth.
• 12:50 — Pevkor’s comparison of countries’ defense spending and timelines.
• 14:39 — Baltic drone incidents and Ukraine’s battlefield advances.
• 17:13 — Pevkor’s war prognosis and message of persistent support for Ukraine.
• 19:44 — Victor Jack joins to analyze broader alliance tensions.
• 20:13 — Jack: the summit’s strategy for managing Trump and unity.
• 24:35 — Defense spending disparities and political messaging.
• 26:11 — Commitment of €70 billion for Ukraine; shifting U.S./NATO perceptions.
• 28:04 — “Ukrainization” of NATO and tactical innovation.
• 29:26 — Rutte’s flattery tactic and its perception in NATO vs. national capitals.
• 30:26 — The risk of a personality-driven clash derailing Ankara’s summit.

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Memorable Moments

• Estonia’s Leading Role: Estonia’s outsized defense investment and explicit push for stronger, faster European commitments.
• Drone Warfare Anecdote: Ukrainian drone operators outperforming NATO teams in exercises, symbolizing tactical leaps by Ukraine.
• Short Summit Strategy: NATO’s bid to “keep Trump happy” by limiting summit length—a rare acknowledgment of personalizing summit structure to one leader’s temperament.

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Conclusion

This episode delves beyond public diplomacy to reveal the real pressures splintering NATO, from U.S.-Europe finger-pointing, uneven defense commitments, and the challenge of keeping Trump onside, to the rising influence—and battlefield lessons—of Ukraine. While leaders strive for a show of unity, behind the scenes the fissures run deep, and how Ankara will play out depends as much on personalities as on policy.

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Transcript

[Podcast Host (Sponsor Segment)]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

the glad handing and back slapping. NATO leaders are getting together for their annual meeting next week and transatlantic tensions will not be far from the surface. The alliance members gather in Ankara amid sharp differences over defense spending. Who should bear the burden of conflict in Ukraine? And Washington's complaints that that allies aren't helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. EU leaders hope that this summit will help steady transatlantic relations. But will President Trump be in listening mode? I'm Sarah Wheaton, host of the Brussels Playbook Weekender podcast. This week my colleagues Anne McElroy and Peter Snowden talked to Estonia's Defence Minister, Hanno Pepkar. And POLITICO's NATO reporter Victor Jack will be on hand to guide us through what we might expect to happen in Turkey. Here is Anne.

[Anne McElroy]

Thanks, Sarah. Well, tensions between the US and European allies in NATO have rarely been higher, with American troop redeployments and a review of its forces on the continent rattling governments struggling to bolster their defense budget. The Baltic states on the front line with Russia have been pressing other European capitals to bring forward the commitment to reach the agreed target of spending, 3.5% of GDP by by 2035. But will that be enough to assuage an impatient American administration? My colleague Peter Snowden talked to Hannu Pevkoe, Estonia's Defence Minister, about what he hopes can be achieved in Ankara.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

Hannu Pevkor, welcome to Brussels Playbook Weekender.

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

Thank you very much for inviting me. It's good to be here.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

What do you see as the biggest challenges of the summit and are you worried about the uncertainty over Iran interfering with the success of the summit?

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

Well, first of all, I believe that we have two tracks to cover. One, what NATO is doing itself to strengthen the capabilities and what is the success report looking at the defence spending? And the other track is definitely Ukraine and of course we would like to see that we will have more commitments in Ukraine's assistance and of course that the there will be also some kind of understanding for the long term support for Ukraine. For the first track. It's important definitely to show the unity that has kept the alliance safe and secure for the last close to 80 years. And obviously we really do hope that the allies will come out from the meeting room with a very clear message that the alliance is stronger than ever, that we will invest into defence more than ever and we will send a very clear message to all the adversaries around the world that we are united.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

Well, we'll come on to the war in Ukraine and defence commitments, but just sticking on the situation with the Middle East. I mean, relations between the US and European allies within the alliance have been strained. And at one point President Trump suggested the US was on the verge of pulling out of NATO altogether. And then last month we saw US Defense Secretary Pete Youssef announce a six month review of the American military footprint in Europe. How worried are you about America's medium, let alone long term commitment to European security?

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

We have to go back in history and throughout the summits we've heard from the American leaders that Europe has to take more responsibility. So it's not the news. And more strongly, we've heard that in last year or half there was a clear commitment made in the Hague that we will invest more into defence, that There is a 5% agreement which at least 3.5 has to go to the core defence spending. So it has been on the table for a long time. So we've been serious here in Estonia also about that. We've been telling that even longer that Europe needs to invest more into its own defense. And we are doing that. So since the year 26, we have already more than 5% to core defense spending. So when I add to that also the defense related issues, then probably we will go to 7% or something or more so. But we are also the frontline country and we need to invest more into defense, it's clear. But that doesn't mean that the others can not do this or will be able not to invest into defense. Everyone in Europe has to do more. And when we have this message to our allies over the sea or the ocean, then it's clear that this is exactly what they are waiting for. So I've heard very clearly from the Secretary Hexit and also from the President Trump and Secretary Rubio that he is committed to NATO. So this is clear. But the same goes for that, that Europe needs to do more. And regarding Europe doing more, there are also different tracks. One is that what we do for our own defense capabilities and the other track is that how we cooperate with us and regarding the Strait of Hormuz or Middle east. But still, it all comes down to the unity. It all comes down to that. It's not about the competition between us and Europe. It's about the partnership we, we need to take care of. And we need to be very clear that when we take also Canada, then we can be very clear to our adversaries only when we keep the unity. So when, when we lose the unity, then this is exactly what Putin or any other dictator wants to see, that NATO is not so strong anymore and, and Europe is not strong enough. My main wish is still that we show all of us that NATO is united. And it doesn't matter when we talk about NATO 3, 0 or we talk about stronger Europe, stronger NATO, doesn't matter what the slogans are, but the point stays the same. We need to make more investments into defense.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

But Pete Hegseth also said, I mean he said some pretty sharp things about NATO. He's called it a paper tiger. He said the failure to support the US in Iran was shameful. Do you think that's a lack language of a reliable ally? Because you yourself went to Washington in the spring, didn't you, I think to go and meet with Secretary Hesseff and other officials in the administration to say Estonia can offer assistance in reopening the Straits of Hormuz. But then when you returned, I gather you were unclear about what they wanted you or other European allies to do on that front.

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

Well, first of all, one thing is clear. When anybody talks about NATO, especially the NATO members, then we talk about one NATO also us is part of NATO. When somebody is claiming that NATO is a paper tiger, then this is also the question to everyone claiming that because we are all in this together, we've built NATO since 49 together and we've invested a lot in, in 80s. So as Pete Hex said that, you know, NATO 10 was, was good. NATO 2. 0 was not so good. And now it's time for NATO 3. 0. I am fine with that. As I said, we clearly understand that after the collapse of the Soviet Union there was a slight hope that Russia will be a democratic country and then we don't need so much military power on the European continent. This is now already many years been very, very clear that we need to have stronger military capabilities and then we are building that. But that burden shifting and that, let's say build up takes time. So you cannot like assume that in one day you wake up and then you have all the capabilities. So for that we need industrial cooperation. For that we need to have more investments to defense for that we also need the US industry because when Europeans will buy only from Europe, then also US industry will struggle. So, and I believe that this is not the aim of the United States of America, that also they want to have their industry growing. So, and, and we know how many countries are buying F35s, Patriots, Javelins, many, many other equipment. So there are new startups in US like Andre or many others who are doing great job. So they want to sell to Europe. So, so this is why, my understanding is why I've said that this, this is about the partnership. When US companies want to sell to Europe and the European countries also to European military, then it needs to be a partnership. Not that, you know, you are just blaming that we are not doing enough. That has been also my message to Pete Hexit that you know, we need to work together. It cannot be so that, you know, one is doing and the others are not. And this is exactly what we've been saying.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

Is there not though a tension between the US on the one hand wanting Europe to step up and take greater responsibility for its defence and then simultaneously expressing scepticism about the continent actually having control, for example over long range missiles. America recently cancelled an order of Tomahawk missiles to Germany. Do you see that as evidence of America wanting one thing and then pulling with the other hand?

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

Well, what I see is that the European industry is growing rapidly and when I take or bring the comparison with Ukraine, then first years of war, Ukraine didn't get much of military assistance and they were forced to come up with new solutions. So this is why we started to see civilian drones on the battlefield and the drone industry grew rapidly. And this is exactly what is happening at the moment with the European industry. So the European industry sees and the European countries that we need to have our sovereign capabilities also. And we have so many European companies developing already and having already, for instance the cruise missiles, the alternatives to Tomahawks and also for the deep strikes to replace or to have at least the alternative for the ATACMS or PRISM or many other capabilities what us can only offer today. So, and also when you talk about the ISR capabilities, so this is why I believe that it is important also for us to cooperate rather to compete because at the end of the day it might lead to that, that European industry and European countries will have all these capabilities and then also we will have Ukrainian market opening probably, you know, when the war will be over and then, and this war will be over one day. So that means that we will have a very strong Competitor also from Ukraine with all the industry. So we will have the Ukrainian industry, which is capable of replacing many, many capabilities already itself. Then we have the European industry, and then we have the US industry. Plus additionally, we have Turkey. Turkey as industry is growing very rapidly at the moment. And when you go to the Turkish industry and then you see how they started to grow, then, it was basically the same reason that many countries denied to sell to Turkey. And this is why Turkey has said that, okay, we will develop our own industry.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

You mentioned, of course, Estonia is increasing rapidly its defence spending. Are other European countries in NATO pulling their weight? I mean, for example, France plans to spend only 2.5% by 2030. And we heard this week from Sir Keir Starmer, the outgoing British Prime Minister, that he will only get to 3.5% by 2035, and spending will only rise to 2.7% by the end of the parliament in the UK this current parliament, Lithuania's Defence Minister this week said that is just too late. I mean, do you agree with that? Do you agree that France and the UK are not pulling their weight?

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

Well, officially we agreed in the Hague that we'll be on 3.5% latest 2035. Considering our position, we said already in 2022, 2023, that we need to be higher and very quickly. So many countries have done that. For instance, Germany has said very clearly that they will be in 3.5 already in 29. So we've had many other countries doing that. And definitely this is something we would like to see. But also we respect that every country will do their own decisions. And then, of course, even when you invest more into defense, you have to be very focused on where this money goes. And will it go to capabilities, or will it go to the social benefits or something else? So this is why, for instance, we in Estonia try to keep the money, which goes only to capabilities and investments, to more than 50%. We've been telling that, and we will tell that also in the future that we need to increase the pace and we need to have more defence sooner. Well, when Keir Starmer said that, and I also know that they want to be at 3% latest by 2030. So this is fine when they do that, but when they can speed up, when they can have a bit higher pace. Very good. And after the elections, you never know who will be in charge. And maybe they will say that, okay, we will go to 3.5 by 2030. And then definitely this is something we would like to see also with all the other allies in Southern Europe.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

I'd just like to come finally to the war in Ukraine. And I mean, Estonia has been one of Ukraine's closest and staunchest allies in the conflict. And you provide extensive military technological support. However, the Baltic region has become more involved. I mean, there have been some incidents where stray Ukrainian drones have strayed into territory. One was shot down over Estonia back in May by a NATO. Are you concerned about further incidents like this getting out of hand, or do you think the situation has stabilized somewhat since those incidents?

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

Well, Ukraine is getting better and better. Also in deep strike, we see their focus on military objects and military targets. Just last night also they hit many, many targets inside of Russia. And they will continue that. We've heard that from President Zelenskyy, from the military leaders that they will continue pushing Russia. And this is the only way to. Do you know, when Russia is not pulling out the forces from Ukraine, then Ukraine needs to keep pushing Russia and push them to come to the negotiation table. So regarding the deep strikes, of course we've been in contact with Ukraine and our message has been clear that you need to control your drones. Once again, I will confirm that we will never or we have never given and will not give any permits to Ukraine Ukrainian forces to use NATO territory for these strikes. And this is the question of the Russian counteroffensive or countermeasures. But nevertheless, you know, last month or last week's been quite calm. Ukraine has been focusing on the Moscow region and Moscow oblast, some other factories. Will they continue? Yes. Will they go more deep and deep? Yes. Will they intensify when they have the capabilities and possibility for that? Yes. So Ukraine is fighting for their freedom with all they got, and our job is to continue helping them.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

Do you think the war in Ukraine will still be raging next year when NATO members meet for their annual summit in 2027? Or are you confident that greater technological support, the use of drone technology, is putting Russia on the back foot and that this conflict might be resolved within the next 12 months?

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

One thing I see is that the ability of Ukraine to push Russia more and more will be strengthened and will be increased. And we see also the actions from the Russian government that they are already limiting the fuel to the people. It already affects their export. Their banking sector is struggling. So we see that when you take all the measures together, like the sanctions, the sanctions from the both side, the European Union and allies like UK and us, when you take also the military assistance, when you take the Ukrainian capabilities, what they have more and more and building more. So this brings more concern also to Kremlin and clearly they are struggling at the moment. Now is the question that is Putin falling apart or not? So I don't see that. So definitely Kremlin is doing everything to keep that war ongoing. And at least at this moment, they are not ready to negotiate. So every signal coming from the Russia shows that they are not ready to negotiate, although they are claiming that. So the only way to move forward at the moment, as I said, is that we will help Ukraine additionally and we will increase our support and we will also send a very clear message to Russia that we will not stop with the assistance to Ukraine and we are able and we are ready to continue for as long as it takes.

[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

Hallo, Pavkov, thank you very much for joining me on Brussels Playbook Weekender.

[Hanno Pevkor (Estonia's Defence Minister)]

Thank you very much.

[Anne McElroy]

In a few moments, I'll be joined By Victor, Jack, POLITICO's NATO reporter in Brussels. Victor's been taking the temperature around the alliance ahead of the summit. So listen up for that.

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Interviewer (Possibly Anne McElroy or another host)]

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[Anne McElroy]

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[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

Yes, indeed. Thanks for having me.

[Anne McElroy]

Well, not at all. Thanks for helping me out here because you've been digging into the tensions between the US And European capitals in the alliance. They've been more on display in the run up to this summit than is usual when NATO tries to put on a united face. Are the Europeans going to be conciliatory towards President Trump? And how on earth is Mark Ritter, the NATO secretary general, proposing to keep everyone on side?

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

Yeah, it's a great question. Answer. Yeah, maybe just, just taking a step back for a second. I mean, you know, officially kind of the line is that, you know, this is while last year was a summit of commitment, as we know, allies committed to this increase of defence spending of 5% of GDP by 2035. This year it's going to be more of a summit of demonstration. So kind of showing the progress and the implementation of those targets that were agreed last year. Unofficially, the task for NATO and for Ruth is going to be pretty much the same as last year, which is keep Trump happy, make sure he's in a good mood and show NATO unity and kind of not bring to the fore all the cracks that have been on display this year. I mean, NATO's obviously, obviously had a rough year between Greenland, between the war in Iran and the disagreement there. It has been a very difficult and almost unprecedented year for NATO perhaps since worst crisis since the Suez crisis. So the way that kind of Ruth and NATO have gone about making this a success and keeping Trump happy is you're going to have a very short and streamlined summit, just one core session of about a couple of hours to make sure that Trump doesn't get bored of the summit as well. So that's kind of the strategy there. I mean, in that context, I think the Europe going to be pretty conciliatory towards Trump. I mean, they want to show unity as much as possibly they can, despite Greenland, despite Iran. So I don't think they're going to be particularly capricious here.

[Anne McElroy]

So you mentioned Donald Trump, President Trump and the need to keep this focus, not have it go on too long. Don't give the president room space for boredom, for noises off for conflict. But we do know that the president is angry about the lack of assistance as he perceives it on the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. And he thinks that NATO in that sense has not been his friend. How easy is that going to be to handle? It's clearly front of mind for those in Washington.

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

Absolutely. I mean, I think there's still a lot of residual frustration, upset and anger from Washington about how other European allies refused to back the US War in Iran. But I think the anger has ebbed away and sort of decreased since April when it was at its peak. Obviously we have the ceasefire still just about holding in Iran, but ultimately it's a fast moving situation.

[Anne McElroy]

So in our interview with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkour, he expressed concern that a divided NATO would only strengthen President Putin. And he appealed to the U.S. defense Secretary Peter Hexith, who described the alliance as a paper tiger. Just, just stop blaming the Europeans. You move on from this blame game in some way. Let's get all of our efforts together against Russia. Do you think that is a view shared in the other capitals or perhaps a bit more fragmented than we might like to think? If we're in capitals being quite staunch in support for the war in Ukraine,

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

I think it's pretty shared across the alliance. I think there is a feeling that the US Rhetoric is unhelpful and obviously it contributes to weakening the deterrence and the signal that we send to Russia here. But ultimately what they do highlight is when you look at facts on the ground, ultimately there's still a strong military to military cooperation in exercises, in war planning and so on. So that's kind of what they insist. But you just never know with this administration how it would react ultimately in a Article 5 in a war situation. I think that's the crucial question that still remains unanswered.

[Anne McElroy]

Let's talk about the money. Estonia, as we heard featured there, on its way to spending more than 5% of GDP on defence. Other Baltic states and Poland significantly increasing their budgets too. The closer you are to Russia, more, it turns out, you're prepared to pony up. But the same can't be said for countries like France yet to meet the 2.5% target. Southern European countries and Keir Starmer departing in the UK also seem to be dragging his feet a bit about that target of, of getting above 3% by well, when in the 2000 and 30s do you think that this question of what gets paid for by whom and how long is something NATO wants to talk about at this summit? Because as soon as you do that, you do open up some fissures, don't you?

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

Absolutely. I mean, you know, when you look at the overall number of investment compared to last year, I mean, it's been a $139 billion increase in defence spending since 2025 and from Europe and Canada, and that is genu impressive number. But you're right, Anne. I mean, when you kind of dig into that, you see big contrast between countries. I mean, behind closed doors, there's a lot of frustration towards in particular Albania, Slovenia, Czechia and perhaps some other countries that aren't even meeting their 2% spending target that was set over a decade ago. So I think there will be a focus on the overall spending target itself and the delivery there as a whole, in order to also present, you know, monetary figures to Trump, which we all know that he enjoys. But yeah, beneath the surface, you're right, that kind of masks a huge discrepancy in the alliance.

[Anne McElroy]

How concerned do you think European countries are that despite their additional support for Ukraine, big assistance with drone technology, other capabilities. I was just actually talking to people who know the extent of UK Special forces in Ukraine yesterday in a very background security briefing is quite phenomenal. And yet at the same time, there's still doubt about whether the tide of the war will turn this year. In other words, can NATO just keep this line of support running indefinitely? I mean, what's your reading of that? Because you talk to a lot of different people in the European side of NATO and around about that. I mean, how optimistic do you think they really are as opposed to what we're going to hear in front of the microphones?

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

Well, no, I think that's a great point and I think that's actually one of the most remarkable aspects of this summit is the fact that as far as we understand, NATO allies will commit to 70 billion euros in military financing both for this year and potentially also for next year. And I think that, you know, this is huge. When you think back to the summit last year, there were discussions right until the very last minute about whether we should include Ukraine at all, mainly because of US kind of reticence to including it. And, you know, now that's completely shifted. And I think that's indicative of the fact that, you know, the US is now coming around a little bit more behind Ukraine after seeing the, the balance tilt in Ukraine's favor on, on the battle field. And also perhaps credit goes to President Macron from France at the G7, who made this case very strongly to Trump and kind of reportedly framed it in terms of Russia is now a loser and Ukraine is a winner in terms that chime with Trump and resonate with him.

[Anne McElroy]

Would you agree with that? Because we've heard a lot of that and the narrative changing from we're supporting plucky Ukraine to actually Ukraine is a leader. We heard a lot about that here as the UK has been focused on its defence investment plan. Actually, we can copy a lot from Ukraine from the uses of drones on the battlefield. We can save money on outdated kit and drone ourselves up to the hilt. I think if you talk to those who are about military capability and how you get to integrate that, a lot of them are concerned about that because they're things that you get into once you're actually at war.

[Sarah Wheaton]

But.

[Anne McElroy]

But hopefully the idea of NATO is to prevent us getting into a war or any land war again in Europe. Is this US telling ourselves a story about NATO and what are you hearing about that? Does it chime with what your sources are telling you?

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

No, no, absolutely. I mean, I think, you know, when it comes to the UK's Defence Investment Plan, framing it around the Ukrainization of the UK, I mean, you know, potentially is also, you know, the government trying to frame decreases in funding in a way that can perhaps fund cheaper tech. I mean, I think that's one part of the discussion. But here at NATO, I think there is this genuine sense that Ukraine is shifting from being, you know, a security consumer to a security provider within Europe. And, you know, the level and intensity of cooperation and dialogue has massively increased between NATO and Ukraine. And they're taking advice on, you know, procurement, they're taking advice on sort of legal changes to do with, you know, defense projects. And they're taking advice on also kind of weaponry and drones as well. I mean, I was at a NATO exercise just a couple of months ago in Sweden, and they're the Ukrainian drone operators that were 24 years old. I mean, the Swedes had to restart their exercise three times because these Ukrainian drone operators completely annihilated these NATO troops that were exercising. So I think there is not only a narrative shift, but I think, you know, that is also underpinned by a real change in substance as well.

[Anne McElroy]

Going to ask you about Mark Rutte, famously good cozying up, up or sucking up, depending on your view, to President Trump in order to get him on the right side of the NATO argument. How is he going to play this summit? Victor?

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

I think he's going to play the summit the exact same way, really, as last year. And this is now sort of his modus operandi. Right? Flatter Trump in public intensive diplomacy behind the scenes to find a compromise. And here you have to look at the difference between how the capitals perceive him and how people here at NATO perceive him in the capitals. They think this is too much. This is humiliating for him, and it's humiliating for us as well. Inside NATO, there is this realization that, look, as long as he keeps the alliance together, those are the real stakes here. Ultimately, we give him a broad and flexible mandate to do whatever he wants. So I think there's a difference there that's important to sort of highlight.

[Anne McElroy]

He gets a kind of flattery bonus that he could spend as long as he bring, as long as he brings home a result which you could tell us about. When you've been through the summit, plenty of other things can go wrong. I was thinking about Donald Trump being alongside George Maloney. We saw what happened at the G7 in France last month. Is there a risk of a spring or personality clash in Ankara that could put the whole thing off track?

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

Absolutely. I mean, there's always that risk with Trump.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Right?

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

I mean, we had, you know, the G7 summit, which seemed to go really well from the outside, and then you had this spat emerging over taking a picture, something so ridiculous between Meloni and Trump just days later. So, I mean, with Trump, you can just never really know what surfaces. And in particular, if he brings Grievances around the Iran war to the table. Especially if something happens with the ceasefire in the next week or so, then potentially we might see recriminations and we might see responses. But you know, it's difficult to tell from this position now.

[Anne McElroy]

Recriminations, possible quarrels. To use the old line, no fighting in the war room at NATO. Thank you very much Victor Jack, for coming onto the Weekender with me.

[Victor Jack (POLITICO's NATO reporter)]

Thanks for having me.

[Sarah Wheaton]

If you have questions about the NATO meeting or want to comment on what you heard on this episode, send us a voice note or a message on WhatsApp. You'll find the details in our show notes. You can also always write to us@podcastolitico eu. And while you're at it, please follow, rate and review us wherever you get your podcasts. The Weekender lives in the Brussels Playbook podcast feed, so subscribing there really helps. Thanks to Peter Snowden, Senior Audio Producer. I'm Sarah Wheaton. See you next week.

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