Podcast Summary: Brussels Playbook Podcast

Episode: Can the EU decouple from Trump's America?
Date: February 6, 2026
Host: Sarah Wheaton (with Zoya Sheftalovich, Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Featured Guest: Mateusz Morawiecki, Former Polish Prime Minister

Episode Overview

This episode dives into a timely and growing debate within the EU: Should Europe brace for strategic decoupling from the United States, especially under Donald Trump, or double down on transatlantic cooperation?
The discussion features two contrasting visions for EU-US relations:

• Morawiecki’s proposal for deeper US-EU alignment
• Mainstream EU leaders’ push for “de-risking” and new self-reliance from Washington

POLITICO’s reporting, drawn from capitals across Europe, reveals a historic shift in attitudes—de-risking is no longer just about China, but also about managing American unpredictability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Backdrop: EU Rethinks its US Dependence

• For years, “decoupling” and “de-risking” were mainly discussed regarding China; now, similar language is being applied to the US due to Trump’s unpredictability and policy clashes.
• “The idea of strengthening the transatlantic relationship used to be just the absolute baseline of EU foreign policy. But now people pushing to do that seem like they're the ones offering a fresh new idea.” – Sarah Wheaton [00:52]

2. Morawiecki’s Vision: Closer Ties, Not Distance

Morawiecki, representing the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists, is firmly pro-US and skeptical of Brussels’ regulatory overreach.

a. Economic NATO Concept

• Proposes a tariffic-free trade zone covering the EU, US, Canada, and select NATO states (e.g., Turkey).
• “This can be a system where we could eliminate all the tariffs and non tariff barriers between both sides… the biggest economic zone on Earth, around 50% of GDP, through which we could impose our will, our standards and norms and regulations on other countries.” – Morawiecki [05:41]
• Suggests the US and EU develop joint standards (not just US accepting EU norms), shaping global rules together. [06:56]

b. Strategic Partnership, Not Overregulation

• Calls for a looser, more flexible Europe, where member states can club together by issue/region, rather than forced, all-EU solutions from Brussels.
• “Let's make [a] step back to the moment where the European Union was very successful. The four freedoms, goods, services, free people and capital, plus the competition law. And that's enough.” – Morawiecki [17:34]
• Warns against excessive Brussels interference, predicting potential EU breakup if top-down impositions persist.

c. US as Security Anchor

• Argues only the US and NATO’s eastern flank states are truly reliable for security guarantees—explicitly dismisses France, Germany, and others in a crisis with Russia.
• “We cannot rely on France, we cannot rely on Germany… The only potential partner in such a case is the United States and other countries of the eastern flank.” – Morawiecki [09:41]

d. Critical of Current Polish Government

• Alleges current PM Donald Tusk is undermining ties with Trump, closing doors at the White House. [10:48]

3. Mainstream EU View: De-risking and Decoupling

With guest Zoya Sheftalovich, POLITICO’s reporting highlights how mainstream leadership sees Trump-era America as an unreliable partner, catalyzing a search for new self-sufficiency.

a. Mood Shift & Growing Realism

• “What I’m picking up around town… even the Baltics to some extent… I’m hearing people say, ‘We’ve got to de-risk. We need to make sure that we can stand on our own two feet because the US under Donald Trump… cannot be relied upon to provide security, cannot be relied upon to be a predictable ally.’” – Zoya Sheftalovich [21:35]

b. Defense: Home-grown Security

• EPP (European People's Party) leaders openly discuss the risk of NATO unraveling under Trump, tasking members to review the EU’s own mutual defense clause as a fallback.
• “How are we going to make this a bona fide deterrent and how do we make it as good as that NATO clause?” – Sheftalovich [25:08]

c. Technology and Strategic Industries

• Policy shifts to reduce US tech dependence: France banning US video conference tools in government; moves in Parliament to swap out US software/hardware.
• “Basically, Europeans are starting to think a little creatively, but the next step is actually developing tangible, real and good alternatives for consumers.” – Sheftalovich [27:32]
• Semiconductor self-sufficiency seen as a massive, long-term challenge.

d. “Buy European” Campaigns and Economic Shifts

• Push from Macron and others for local sourcing—initially in defense, but also cheese, champagne, etc.—to support EU industrial capacity.
• “What you lose is the capacity to have an industry. This deindustrialization that we're seeing around Europe now, it’s a huge problem and it’s a concern.” – Sheftalovich [28:28]

e. Political Caution in Public Rhetoric

• EU leaders remain wary of antagonizing Trump publicly, given the leverage he holds over Ukraine support and broader transatlantic ties.

4. The Ukraine Factor: The Strategic X-Factor

• Continued EU restraint on public decoupling rhetoric is driven by the importance of US-supplied arms to Ukraine.
• “Their fear is that US Weapons are central to Ukraine's ability to defend itself. They're buying them, you know, the Europeans are buying them, but Donald Trump still has to let them go.” – Sheftalovich [30:05]
• Trump’s unpredictability is considered a double-edged sword—possibly deterring Putin, but also underscoring the need for EU self-reliance.

5. Analysis & Reality Check

• “Morawiecki, you know, his dream is quite opposite of Trump proof. His dream is this economic NATO. If that's the dream, how would you describe the reality right now?” – Wheaton
  “I would describe that as less of a dream and more of an absolute fantasy. And I think ultimately where we're at is every man for himself.” – Sheftalovich [31:58]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The idea of strengthening the transatlantic relationship used to be just the absolute baseline of EU foreign policy. But now people pushing to do that seem like they're the ones offering a fresh new idea.” – Sarah Wheaton [00:52]
• “There is a real mood shift among EU leaders and they are starting to talk about ways in which we can decouple in all sorts of sectors from the US.” – Zoya Sheftalovich [23:32]
• “We shouldn't pay the European taxpayer money for Chinese goods. And Chinese sectors.” – Morawiecki [14:34]
• “What you lose is the capacity to have an industry. This deindustrialization that we're seeing around Europe now, it's a huge problem and it's a concern.” – Sheftalovich [28:28]
• “I would describe [economic NATO] as less of a dream and more of an absolute fantasy. And I think ultimately where we're at is every man for himself.” – Sheftalovich [31:58]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Backdrop and Episode Theme: 00:00 - 03:21
• Morawiecki on Economic NATO & Strategic Partnership: 03:21 - 20:08
• EU Mood Shift & De-risking (with Sheftalovich): 21:15 - 31:58
• Ukraine’s Role in EU Policy: 30:12 - 31:46
• Reflection on Reality vs. Vision: 31:46 - 32:07
• Podcast Wrap-up & Look Ahead: 32:07 - end

Tone & Language

The episode maintains a conversational but urgent tone:

• Skeptical about easy solutions
• Empirical, illustrated with policy examples and in-the-room insights
• Wry, sometimes gently mocking (“Buy European, in weapons, means buy French—well, of course.” – Sheftalovich [28:28])
• Sober realism about both US unpredictability and the EU’s limitations

Conclusion

This episode captures a historic moment in EU thinking: as US unpredictability rises, the EU’s default reliance on transatlantic security and prosperity is under intense scrutiny. While outliers like Morawiecki hope for deeper integration, the prevailing wind is toward de-risking, strategic autonomy, and hedging against a world where Washington may no longer have Brussels’ back.

For further updates and daily reporting, the new Brussels Playbook Podcast launches soon with Zoya Sheftalovich as host.