Caught between wars

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast

Episode: "Caught Between Wars"

Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Ian Wishart (Senior EU Politics Editor, POLITICO)

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Brief Overview

Today's episode unpacks Brussels' reactive posture as the EU finds itself entangled in the fallout from the escalating Middle East crisis. A drone strike on Cyprus (an EU member state) thrusts the bloc into the line of fire while simultaneously exposing its limitations in crisis response and foreign policy. The hosts also explore knock-on effects for Ukraine—especially around military aid—as well as intramural EU tensions, diplomatic maneuverings, and a lighter debate over Brussels’ own reputation as a city.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Middle East Crisis Hits Cyprus—and the EU’s Peripheral Response

• Cyprus Incident: Drone strikes targeted UK air bases in Cyprus, inadvertently involving the EU via an attack on member territory. (01:14)

  “It really hit home, literally as well as figuratively yesterday, when Cyprus found itself, as I said earlier, in the line of fire. And that's an EU country.” — Zoya (01:49)

• General Affairs Council Postponed: The informal meeting in Cyprus was postponed for security reasons.
• EU’s Reluctant Involvement: The EU is distancing itself, opting for internal discussions rather than external action.

  “You do get the impression, though, that the EU doesn't want to get sucked into this conflict.” — Ian (02:10)

• Limited Authority: The bloc’s mechanism is more bureaucratic than operational.

2. Brussels’ Tools: Committees, Crisis Response—and Their Limits

• Activation of the Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR): An emergency mechanism to coordinate between member states on evacuation, security risks, trade, and energy. (02:29)

  “That's one for the Brussels geeks, isn’t it?” — Ian (02:26)

• Security College Meeting: Convened by EC President Ursula von der Leyen, commissioners gave updates on regional, humanitarian, migration, and energy impacts.

  “People around the world will laugh at that. You know, we're—how long? Three days into this conflict and the European Commission is delivering a presentation.” — Ian (04:16)

• Limitations: The EU’s design as a bloc of 27 states with diverse interests hampers unified decisive action, especially on foreign policy.

  “It is not really made for these sorts of crises. It's made for something entirely different.” — Zoya (04:24)

3. Internal Tensions and Leadership Clashes

• Von der Leyen vs. Kallas: The episode details a behind-the-scenes clash between Ursula von der Leyen (Commission president) and Kaya Kallas (top diplomat) over who sets the crisis agenda.

  “We've got a story that's coming out this morning that really looks at that and kind of looks at the impact of having Ursula von der Leyen... and they're butting heads a little bit.” — Zoya (05:05)

• Conflicting Initiatives: Both leaders called parallel meetings—a Security College by von der Leyen and Foreign Affairs Council by Kallas—highlighting coordination gaps.
• Member State Friction: Member states privately express skepticism over Brussels’ effectiveness.

4. The Trump Factor in EU Diplomacy

• Limited Access: Who gets to talk to Trump is a running theme. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is meeting Trump, highlighting EU leaders’ struggle for influence in Washington. (06:38)
• Von der Leyen’s Outreach: Past stories about direct communications with Trump are playfully questioned by the hosts.

  “Having Donald Trump's phone number and getting him to pick up the phone is not the challenge. The challenge is actually getting him to have any sort of real respect for your position…” — Zoya (07:13)

5. Ukraine’s EU Accession: Progress and Perils Amid Distraction

• Missed Milestone (Scoop): Zoya reveals that, had the Cyprus meeting proceeded, the EU was poised to hand Ukraine its final three “negotiating clusters”—a symbolic boost for Kyiv’s accession hopes. (08:17)

  “This is going to probably be news to a lot of people, because this is a story I was hoping to break today, but this is a scoop.” — Zoya (08:16)

• What Are Clusters? Negotiation chapters grouped by theme—progress on these is a key milestone in accession. Delays due to the crisis are expected to be minimal.
• Moldova, Too: Moldova’s path is “twinned” with Ukraine’s; both were set for progress. (09:20)
• Military Aid Squeeze: The proliferation of crises (Iran, Ukraine, Cyprus) puts pressure on Western military resources, particularly the coveted Patriot missile systems.

  “There were already not that many Patriot missiles to go around, and now that's going to be even more difficult.” — Zoya (10:19)

• Hungary and Orban Blockade: Hungary continues to block formal negotiations; Ukrainians are hoping for U.S. pressure (via Trump) to resolve this, but Iran crisis may distract Trump.

  “The only game in town when it comes to getting Viktor Orban to change his view… is to get Donald Trump… involved.” — Zoya (11:11)

6. Broader Political Ripples

• Energy and Electioneering: Viktor Orban leverages rising energy concerns (exacerbated by the Iran war) for domestic political gains ahead of elections. (11:41)
• France’s Nuclear Posture: President Macron’s announcement of an expanded French nuclear arsenal breaks precedent, welcome news for states seeking nuclear assurances.

  “That’ll be music to the ears of the Baltics and others…” — Zoya (12:24)

7. Brussels’ Reputation: Hellhole, New Berlin, or Both?

• The hosts turn to local color, reflecting on negative portrayals of Brussels by far-right influencers, and contrasting viral criticisms with glowing international media comparisons to Berlin. (13:08–13:32)

  “It might be a hellhole, but it’s our hellhole.” — Zoya (13:09)

• Listeners from around the world weigh in on their connection to both the podcast and Brussels—showing the city’s global reach.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On EU Processes

  “We're how long—three days into this conflict and the European Commission is delivering a presentation.” — Ian Wishart (04:16)

• On Internal EU Tensions

  “They're not exactly singing from the song sheet.” — Ian Wishart (05:31)

• On US-EU Relations

  “Having Donald Trump's phone number... is not the challenge. The challenge is actually getting him to have any sort of real respect for your position…” — Zoya Sheftalovich (07:13)

• On Military Aid Constraints

  “There were already not that many Patriot missiles to go around, and now that's going to be even more difficult.” — Zoya Sheftalovich (10:19)

• On Brussels’ Atmosphere

  “It might be a hellhole, but it's our hellhole.” — Zoya Sheftalovich (13:09)

• On Listener Geography

  “I got a note from someone in Tasmania who told me he listens every day.” — Zoya Sheftalovich (13:53)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |---------------|------------------------------------------------| | 01:14 | Cyprus drone strikes and EU response | | 02:29 | IPCR mechanism explained | | 03:16 | Security College meeting and Commission roles | | 05:05 | Power struggle: von der Leyen vs. Kallas | | 06:38 | Friedrich Merz, Trump, and EU’s U.S. access | | 08:16 | Scoop: Ukraine and Moldova’s negotiating clusters| | 09:20 | Moldova’s simultaneous accession progress | | 10:19 | Patriot missile bottleneck—Ukraine’s dilemma | | 11:11 | Hungary’s blockade and hope for Trump’s help | | 11:41 | Orban weaponizes energy prices ahead of election| | 12:24 | France’s nuclear arsenal—European implications | | 13:08 | Brussels’ viral negative image | | 13:53 | Diverse international listenership |

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Listener Interaction

• The hosts encourage feedback on Brussels’ reputation and share listener messages from Romania, the U.S., Bulgaria, and Australia, underscoring the podcast’s reach and the global importance of EU politics.

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Tone & Style

Conversational yet informed, with moments of humor and approachable explanations of complex EU processes. The interplay between hosts brings both gravitas and lightness to urgent geopolitical issues.

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In summary:
Today’s episode deftly chronicles how the Middle East crisis is testing the EU’s crisis machinery—not just bureaucratically, but politically—with spillovers complicating support for Ukraine, fraying leadership at the top, and reminding Brussels it remains “caught between wars” on several fronts, even as its own identity is debated anew.

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Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is Presented by Amazon. 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Learn [e-mail] Good morning.

[B]

It's Tuesday, March 3rd, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is entangled. An EU member country finds itself in the line of fire amid the Middle east crisis. But the EU is distancing itself from the whole melee. Also on the pod, what the crisis in the Middle east means for Ukraine and Brussels. Is it a haven or a hellhole, Ian? I don't know. What do you think?

[C]

We'll find out at the end of the podcast.

[B]

I'm Zora Sheftolovich, Politico's chief EU correspondent, and with me today, you may have guessed, is our senior EU politics editor, Ian Wishard. Hey, Ian.

[C]

Nice to see you back in the studio, Zoya, after your trip to Ukraine. Yes, I'm sure our fans will be glad we're back together.

[B]

I can just hear the cacophony of voices applauding us as we speak.

[C]

But you were supposed to be in Cyprus today, weren't you? But the General Affairs Council got cancelled.

[B]

I was, yes. So the informal General Affairs Council. Not cancelled, postponed, as they're very keen to point out. But basically because of this crisis in the Middle east and because Cyprus. Cyprus found itself on the receiving end of some drone strikes at the UK air bases on the island, the decision was made to cancel or to postpone at least, and we're yet to see what's going to happen with that. I'm sure that they will reschedule it for another time, but at the moment that's not been clear.

[C]

Well, that does lead us on quite nicely to, obviously, the main story of today and of the week here in Brussels and around the world, the ongoing crisis in Iran.

[B]

Yeah, look, it really hit home, literally as well as figuratively yesterday, when Cyprus found itself, as I said earlier, in the line of fire. And that's an EU country. And even though the drones that were aimed at Cyprus were allegedly being aimed at the UK air bases on the island of Cyprus, nonetheless, it is an island that is a member country.

[C]

You do get the impression, though, that the EU doesn't want to get sucked into this conflict.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. And I think part of that is because it has a pretty limited auspice under which it can operate. So we know today there's going to be a meeting of what's called the Integrated Political Crisis Response Team.

[C]

That's one for the Brussels geeks, isn't it?

[B]

For the real ones, yeah. And what that is, it's the Council's crisis coordination mechanism and it's the Council presidency, which by the way, ironically is Cyprus. In this six month cycle, they call a meeting of this IPCR in response to crises, like for instance, the Ukraine crisis or the COVID crisis. They get together all of the various people who are affected and they discuss what the EU needs to do. So it's, you know, whether that's dealing with the security risks, how to evacuate citizens abroad, what to do about trade and transport flows, energy prices, that sort of thing. So that's what's happening today.

[C]

And this follows hot on the heels of another meeting yesterday which was called the Security College, which is basically the commissioners but talking about this crisis. And I know you've been trying to find out what was going on last night.

[B]

Yeah, that's right, Ian. So this was the Security College called by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. And the way that that was held was basically over the weekend, von der Leyen said that she wanted to hold the Security College. And then Bjorn Seibert, who is Ursula von der Leyen's right hand man, he got in touch with the Commissioners over the weekend and he asked several of them to prepare some information so that they could share it with the Security College yesterday. And so among those was kaya Kallas, the EU's top diplomat. And she was looking at situational and overall security awareness and assessments. Then we had Dubravka Schwitzer, who is the Mediterranean Commissioner, and she was looking at the impact for the region. Then we had Hajar Labib who was looking at the evacuation issues and the humanitarian side of things. We had Magnus Brunner who was looking at migration trends and, and then Dan Jorgensen looking at energy prices and the global impact of that. And so they all delivered a presentation and gave an update to the other members of the Commission on their areas.

[C]

People around the world will laugh at that. You know, we're how long three days into this conflict and the European Commission is delivering a presentation.

[B]

Yeah, and that's the bottom line of like the limitations of the eu, Ian, because it is not really made for these sorts of crises. It's made for something entirely different.

[C]

And that's why a lot of people say criticism of the EU on foreign policy is a little unfair.

[B]

Yeah. And particularly because when you consider, you know, it isn't a single country, it is 27 countries with different interests and different governments from different families.

[C]

And it's quite clear that some of those governments will think that what the US and Israel did in Iran is legally and morally dubious.

[B]

Yeah. And some of them will love it and will be cheering for regime change.

[C]

And we saw that in the statement that the E3 put out over the weekend. The French, the Germans and the British saying, you know, they're very close to supporting the us.

[B]

Yeah. But the thing is, what this exposes in is this difference and tension at the top of the EU when it comes to foreign policy and crisis response. And we've got a story that's coming out this morning that really looks at that and kind of looks at the impact of having Ursula von der Leyen, who's the European Commission president, who's out and quite active in this, as well as Kayakalas, who's the EU's top diplomat and is also meant to be quite active in this. And they're butting heads a little bit.

[C]

Did strike us over the weekend. They're not exactly singing from the song sheet.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. And Ursula von der Leyen, who's the commission president, she ended up getting on the phone and speaking to, like, nine Gulf leaders. She put out a flurry of social media posts. Kayakalis ended up doing similar. But then she also called the meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council for Sunday. So Ursula von der Leyen calling a commission security college, Kayakallis calling this Foreign Affairs Council, it's not exactly in line with one another, but then you get

[C]

diplomats from the member states who say, but actually, look at the Foreign Affairs Council, it didn't really achieve anything. They're the same diplomats who also talk about this dysfunction between the Commission and the ea.

[B]

Yeah. And this is the thing. The bottom line is, is that Ursula von der Leyen, she runs a really tight ship and she likes to keep her team of commissioners in check. Kaya Callas, who is a former prime minister, very outspoken, very political. She doesn't much like being steered. Ian.

[C]

No. So what's happening today, apart from this? I've already forgotten this acronym for this other meeting today.

[B]

How could you? It's ipcr. It rolls off the tongue.

[C]

Ap, that Friedrich Mertz, the German chancellor, is meeting Donald Trump in Washington.

[B]

Yeah, that's right. And I think, once again, it demonstrates who does and who does not have a line into Donald Trump. Because you would expect that there would be. Maybe Antonio Costa might pick up the phone and call Trump and say, hey, mate, what are you doing? Why didn't you give us a heads up.

[C]

But we did do a story about a year ago where we were saying that Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump were exchanging text messages. They were that close that they could talk like that.

[B]

I don't know that that's how I would characterize it, Ian. You could probably exchange text messages.

[C]

Definitely couldn't.

[B]

I think you could. I reckon you could. Hey. Hey, girlfriend, what's up?

[C]

I don't speak like that.

[B]

Well, that's a shame. But anyway, look, I think the bottom line is, is that having Donald Trump's phone number and getting him to pick up the phone is not the challenge. The challenge is actually getting him to have any sort of real respect for your position, any sort of briefing ahead of time on this sort of thing. And it just shows that there's very few people in the EU who Trump has that time and respect for.

[C]

Righty ho, Zoe. That actually brings us on to our second story, which is not completely unconnected. It's about Ukraine.

[B]

Yeah, that's right.

[C]

Which is what you were supposed to be talking about in Cyprus today, wasn't it?

[B]

It was. So the thing that I was going to Cyprus for was this informal General Affairs Council, which is just like an EU way of saying that all of the EU's European affairs ministers were going to be gathered in Cyprus to discuss various things. The key thing that was going to come out of this informal gaki. And, you know, this is going to probably be news to a lot of people, because this is a story I was hoping to break today, but this is a scoop.

[C]

You're going to talk.

[B]

It is. It is a scoop, or it was a scoop. We'll see if others get it, too. As you know, this business is fickle, but what was going to happen was that the EU was ready to hand over the final three negotiating clusters to Ukraine.

[C]

Clusters is another piece of EU jargon. Do you want to explain that?

[B]

Yeah. So what it means is, when you are trying to join the eu, there are these negotiating chapters that you have to work through, and they cover things like rule of law and democracy, but also agriculture and transport and all of these sorts of things. They cluster them into themes and there's six of them, and Ukraine got the first three earlier. So they've been working on these reforms. It's called frontloading, Ian. That's a fun EU term. They've been working on these reforms in the meantime because they can't actually formally open negotiations because Hungary is blocking them. And what was going to happen at the GAC today was that they were going to get the last three. And that's a really symbolic big win for Ukraine to show that the other 26 EU countries, barring Hungary, have agreed on what Kyiv needs to do to join the bloc.

[C]

And we should just underline again that the fact that this meeting was postponed shouldn't hit their chances too much.

[B]

No. And this was something that I was talking to an EU diplomat about. I asked, is this going to delay things for Ukraine? And the diplomat said, no. Firstly, we're going to do this asap. We're just scrambling to find another place and another time, because the thing is, we don't know when Cyprus will be a place that you can go to again reliably and get there and not have your flight canceled. So they're thinking about whether they want to do this in Cyprus or somewhere else. And, oh, I should also mention Moldova is also in line for this because Moldova has its EU accession path twinned with Ukraine's. So it's Moldova and Ukraine that we're going to get their final clusters.

[C]

I find the overlapping of world affairs quite interesting. And I know that President Zelensky of Ukraine has been talking about the Iran war and talking about how if it goes on for a long time, it impedes Iran, Ukraine's ability to get American weapons.

[B]

Yeah. And this is the thing, Ian, because while, yes, the negotiations can happen at the same time as everything else happens, the problem for Ukraine is it needs Patriot missiles to defend itself from Russian attacks. Patriot missiles is also what the UAE needs to defend itself from Iranian attacks. And it's what British air bases on Cyprus need to defend themselves. So there is going to be a big squeeze. There were already not that many Patriot missiles to go around, and now that's going to be even more difficult. So Ukraine is waiting on this 90 billion euro loan from the EU, but the question is, when it gets that money, will it have any patriots to buy?

[C]

So we almost come around 360 degrees, because, yes, diplomats and officials in Brussels might not have that much to say about Iran, but the knock on effect on Ukraine is a whole different matter. There's a lot to talk about there.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. And the other thing that we've got to not forget is that the way Ukraine gets its way into the EU is essentially for Hungary to drop its opposition. And the only game in town when it comes to getting Viktor Orban to change his view on something at the moment is to get Donald Trump and his administration involved. So what the Ukrainians are counting on is that Trump might pick up the phone and Say, hey, Victor, get out of the way on this. But will he do that if he's busy with a war in Iran?

[C]

Yes. So it's all connected. And I think we've been told also that Friedrich Mertz, the German Chancellor, will be talking not only about Iran, but also about Ukraine when he meets Donald Trump today. Shall we have a quick look at a couple of other stories on the Politico website today, Zoya? And we've got something about Viktor Orban again, the Hungarian Prime Minister seizing on fears about the rising energy prices because of the Iran war to claw back ground against his challenger ahead of the elections in April. And also Emmanuel Macron, the French president. He said yesterday that France would increase the size of its nuclear arsenal. And that's breaking a major taboo, according to our French reporters in Paris.

[B]

Yeah, And I think that'll be music to the ears of the Baltics and others who would like to shelter under France's nuclear umbrella. All right, Ian, for our final story, it's a topic that's a bit closer to home. Yesterday, Nick and I were speaking about how the Flemish Socialist Party wants to give non Belgian EU citizens who live in Brussels the right to vote in regional elections in the city. And Nick told me he'd vote for any party that makes water free in restaurants. And I am fully on board. Ian, what about you?

[C]

Well, I'd vote for any party that would ease traffic congestion in Brussels.

[B]

But you know, Ian, I've been reading about Brussels bashing videos that have been going viral on social media. This is some far right influencers who've been coming into the EU capital and hating on the city.

[C]

How dare they?

[B]

I know. How very dare they? It might be a hellhole, but it's our hellhole.

[C]

Ian, I don't think it's a hellhole.

[B]

I don't think so either. That's why I live here. But at the same time, there's also some stories that have been in Vogue and New York Times where they're basically saying Brussels is like the new Berlin.

[C]

Won't go that far.

[B]

But like, what is it? I mean, is Brussels a glamour puss waiting to happen?

[C]

I mean, we did ask that question about 15 years ago.

[B]

Yeah, we did. Have happened by now, I think it is happening in. But I want to know what our listeners think. Listeners? Send us a voice note, send us a text message. Our WhatsApp number is in the show notes, as it always is. Let us know. What do you think of Brussels? Have you been to Brussels? Because, you know, Ian, people who are not in Brussels. Listen to this program.

[C]

Do they really? Like who?

[B]

I got a note from someone in Tasmania who told me he listens every day.

[C]

Tasmania in Australia?

[B]

Yeah, that's right. Poor Tasmania just got dragged in the dirt by Ian Wishart.

[C]

All right, not for the first time.

[B]

Keep it to yourself. Alrighty. Well, while we're on the subject of WhatsApps, we've had some more messages that have come through. We've had Elena from Bucharest who wrote in to say that the podcast has become her go to morning briefing to understand headlines before class. We had also a message from Ethan. He's a master's student in the US and he was lamenting the harsh job market awaiting him on the other side of his studies. Good luck, Ethan. Hey, we've even had another listener, Veselin, who points out that in Bulgaria, EU news is just as important as domestic politics, but isn't often covered in depth by local media. So they are loving us. Loving us. Sick.

[C]

Well again. So, yeah, you've outdone yourself. I think we need to stop this podcast right now and resume tomorrow.

[B]

Yeah, let's do that. Folks, if you're a fan of the show, leave us a review. Rate us. I'm not going to beg, but I'm kind of begging. That's it for today. Thanks for joining me, Ian.

[C]

Cheerio.

[A]

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