Brussels Playbook Podcast
Episode: "Caught Between Wars"
Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Ian Wishart (Senior EU Politics Editor, POLITICO)
Brief Overview
Today's episode unpacks Brussels' reactive posture as the EU finds itself entangled in the fallout from the escalating Middle East crisis. A drone strike on Cyprus (an EU member state) thrusts the bloc into the line of fire while simultaneously exposing its limitations in crisis response and foreign policy. The hosts also explore knock-on effects for Ukraine—especially around military aid—as well as intramural EU tensions, diplomatic maneuverings, and a lighter debate over Brussels’ own reputation as a city.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Middle East Crisis Hits Cyprus—and the EU’s Peripheral Response
- Cyprus Incident: Drone strikes targeted UK air bases in Cyprus, inadvertently involving the EU via an attack on member territory. (01:14)
“It really hit home, literally as well as figuratively yesterday, when Cyprus found itself, as I said earlier, in the line of fire. And that's an EU country.” — Zoya (01:49)
- General Affairs Council Postponed: The informal meeting in Cyprus was postponed for security reasons.
- EU’s Reluctant Involvement: The EU is distancing itself, opting for internal discussions rather than external action.
“You do get the impression, though, that the EU doesn't want to get sucked into this conflict.” — Ian (02:10)
- Limited Authority: The bloc’s mechanism is more bureaucratic than operational.
2. Brussels’ Tools: Committees, Crisis Response—and Their Limits
- Activation of the Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR): An emergency mechanism to coordinate between member states on evacuation, security risks, trade, and energy. (02:29)
“That's one for the Brussels geeks, isn’t it?” — Ian (02:26)
- Security College Meeting: Convened by EC President Ursula von der Leyen, commissioners gave updates on regional, humanitarian, migration, and energy impacts.
“People around the world will laugh at that. You know, we're—how long? Three days into this conflict and the European Commission is delivering a presentation.” — Ian (04:16)
- Limitations: The EU’s design as a bloc of 27 states with diverse interests hampers unified decisive action, especially on foreign policy.
“It is not really made for these sorts of crises. It's made for something entirely different.” — Zoya (04:24)
3. Internal Tensions and Leadership Clashes
- Von der Leyen vs. Kallas: The episode details a behind-the-scenes clash between Ursula von der Leyen (Commission president) and Kaya Kallas (top diplomat) over who sets the crisis agenda.
“We've got a story that's coming out this morning that really looks at that and kind of looks at the impact of having Ursula von der Leyen... and they're butting heads a little bit.” — Zoya (05:05)
- Conflicting Initiatives: Both leaders called parallel meetings—a Security College by von der Leyen and Foreign Affairs Council by Kallas—highlighting coordination gaps.
- Member State Friction: Member states privately express skepticism over Brussels’ effectiveness.
4. The Trump Factor in EU Diplomacy
- Limited Access: Who gets to talk to Trump is a running theme. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is meeting Trump, highlighting EU leaders’ struggle for influence in Washington. (06:38)
- Von der Leyen’s Outreach: Past stories about direct communications with Trump are playfully questioned by the hosts.
“Having Donald Trump's phone number and getting him to pick up the phone is not the challenge. The challenge is actually getting him to have any sort of real respect for your position…” — Zoya (07:13)
5. Ukraine’s EU Accession: Progress and Perils Amid Distraction
- Missed Milestone (Scoop): Zoya reveals that, had the Cyprus meeting proceeded, the EU was poised to hand Ukraine its final three “negotiating clusters”—a symbolic boost for Kyiv’s accession hopes. (08:17)
“This is going to probably be news to a lot of people, because this is a story I was hoping to break today, but this is a scoop.” — Zoya (08:16)
- What Are Clusters? Negotiation chapters grouped by theme—progress on these is a key milestone in accession. Delays due to the crisis are expected to be minimal.
- Moldova, Too: Moldova’s path is “twinned” with Ukraine’s; both were set for progress. (09:20)
- Military Aid Squeeze: The proliferation of crises (Iran, Ukraine, Cyprus) puts pressure on Western military resources, particularly the coveted Patriot missile systems.
“There were already not that many Patriot missiles to go around, and now that's going to be even more difficult.” — Zoya (10:19)
- Hungary and Orban Blockade: Hungary continues to block formal negotiations; Ukrainians are hoping for U.S. pressure (via Trump) to resolve this, but Iran crisis may distract Trump.
“The only game in town when it comes to getting Viktor Orban to change his view… is to get Donald Trump… involved.” — Zoya (11:11)
6. Broader Political Ripples
- Energy and Electioneering: Viktor Orban leverages rising energy concerns (exacerbated by the Iran war) for domestic political gains ahead of elections. (11:41)
- France’s Nuclear Posture: President Macron’s announcement of an expanded French nuclear arsenal breaks precedent, welcome news for states seeking nuclear assurances.
“That’ll be music to the ears of the Baltics and others…” — Zoya (12:24)
7. Brussels’ Reputation: Hellhole, New Berlin, or Both?
- The hosts turn to local color, reflecting on negative portrayals of Brussels by far-right influencers, and contrasting viral criticisms with glowing international media comparisons to Berlin. (13:08–13:32)
“It might be a hellhole, but it’s our hellhole.” — Zoya (13:09)
- Listeners from around the world weigh in on their connection to both the podcast and Brussels—showing the city’s global reach.
Memorable Quotes & Moments
- On EU Processes
“We're how long—three days into this conflict and the European Commission is delivering a presentation.” — Ian Wishart (04:16)
- On Internal EU Tensions
“They're not exactly singing from the song sheet.” — Ian Wishart (05:31)
- On US-EU Relations
“Having Donald Trump's phone number... is not the challenge. The challenge is actually getting him to have any sort of real respect for your position…” — Zoya Sheftalovich (07:13)
- On Military Aid Constraints
“There were already not that many Patriot missiles to go around, and now that's going to be even more difficult.” — Zoya Sheftalovich (10:19)
- On Brussels’ Atmosphere
“It might be a hellhole, but it's our hellhole.” — Zoya Sheftalovich (13:09)
- On Listener Geography
“I got a note from someone in Tasmania who told me he listens every day.” — Zoya Sheftalovich (13:53)
Timestamps for Important Segments
| Timestamp | Topic | |---------------|------------------------------------------------| | 01:14 | Cyprus drone strikes and EU response | | 02:29 | IPCR mechanism explained | | 03:16 | Security College meeting and Commission roles | | 05:05 | Power struggle: von der Leyen vs. Kallas | | 06:38 | Friedrich Merz, Trump, and EU’s U.S. access | | 08:16 | Scoop: Ukraine and Moldova’s negotiating clusters| | 09:20 | Moldova’s simultaneous accession progress | | 10:19 | Patriot missile bottleneck—Ukraine’s dilemma | | 11:11 | Hungary’s blockade and hope for Trump’s help | | 11:41 | Orban weaponizes energy prices ahead of election| | 12:24 | France’s nuclear arsenal—European implications | | 13:08 | Brussels’ viral negative image | | 13:53 | Diverse international listenership |
Listener Interaction
- The hosts encourage feedback on Brussels’ reputation and share listener messages from Romania, the U.S., Bulgaria, and Australia, underscoring the podcast’s reach and the global importance of EU politics.
Tone & Style
Conversational yet informed, with moments of humor and approachable explanations of complex EU processes. The interplay between hosts brings both gravitas and lightness to urgent geopolitical issues.
In summary:
Today’s episode deftly chronicles how the Middle East crisis is testing the EU’s crisis machinery—not just bureaucratically, but politically—with spillovers complicating support for Ukraine, fraying leadership at the top, and reminding Brussels it remains “caught between wars” on several fronts, even as its own identity is debated anew.