Episode 1: The plan to get Ukraine into the EU

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast

Episode 1: The Plan to Get Ukraine into the EU
Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Ian Wishart (Senior EU Politics Editor)

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Episode Overview

The debut of the Brussels Playbook Podcast kicks off with an energetic and reporting-driven guide to what’s driving EU politics. The central theme today is the European Union’s behind-the-scenes maneuvers to fast-track Ukraine’s accession, despite political roadblocks—most notably, Hungary’s opposition. The episode also covers the looming competitiveness debate among EU leaders and a lighter, culturally relevant note on the vanishing Irish pubs in Brussels.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fast-Tracked Plan to Get Ukraine into the EU

Context

• There has been no new country joining the EU since Croatia in 2013, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has radically shifted the conversation about enlargement.
• Ukraine applied for EU membership in February 2022; it is one of nine current candidate countries.
• EU leaders are under pressure to present tangible progress to Ukraine before a potential peace deal referendum.

The Five-Point Plan (01:46)

1. Getting Ukraine Ready: Ukraine must complete all required reforms and "homework."

   “No one’s talking about shortcuts or not meeting the benchmarks… They want Ukraine to do the homework.” – Zoya (01:46)

2. EU Membership Light: Introducing an interim “membership-light” phase—enables Ukraine to participate in Council summits and discussions without full membership.
3. Wait for the Hungarian Election: Scheduled for April 2026. Viktor Orban’s opposition is a key obstacle.
4. Trump’s Potential Pressure: If Orban wins, team Zelensky is considering if Donald Trump might nudge Orban due to their relationship.
5. Stripping Hungary’s Voting Rights: As a last resort, if Hungary continues to block, there is talk of invoking Article 7 to suspend Hungary’s EU voting rights.

Reverse Enlargement & Lowering the Bar?

• Ursula von der Leyen discussed “reverse enlargement”: letting countries enter the bloc if they’ve completed almost all reforms, even while some are pending (03:22).
• Zoya clarifies:

  “I don’t think anyone is talking about lowering the bar per se... They want to give Zelensky something for his people to see as progress.” (04:03)

Political Urgency

• Ukrainian President Zelensky needs concrete promises of EU membership to win domestic support for a potential peace deal, which may require territorial concessions (04:25).
• There’s fear that without such an incentive, Ukrainians might reject any peace plan in a referendum, making the war intractable.

The Hungary Problem (05:09)

• Orban’s categorical opposition (“He will never allow Ukraine to join the EU” – Zoya) is a major hurdle.
• Since EU enlargement requires unanimity, Hungary’s “no” can block Ukraine indefinitely.

Options for Addressing Hungary’s Blockade

• Diplomatic persuasion and, if needed, external leverage (notably speculation about Trump’s involvement).
• Article 7 is not an explicit threat tied to the Ukraine question, but is a tool due to Hungary’s ongoing rule-of-law violations (06:22).

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2. Competitiveness Back on the EU Table (07:16)

Upcoming Informal Leaders’ Retreat

• EU leaders are gathering at Alden Bisson, Belgium, to address competitiveness and the bloc’s strategic vulnerabilities.

Ursula von der Leyen’s Letter (07:34)

• Eight-page call to arms:

  “The world is being increasingly shaped by raw power, strategic rivalry and the weaponization of dependencies.” – Ian, quoting von der Leyen (07:34)

• Zoya explains the “weaponization of dependencies” refers to external pressures from China (rare earths) and the US (tariffs).

Divided Approaches

• Germany advocates for deregulation and SME-friendly policies.
• France pushes for state subsidies for defense, technology, and infrastructure (09:00).

“We all agree on the disease, we just don’t agree on the cure.” – Zoya, citing diplomats (09:23)

Prospects for Progress

• Little expectation for a breakthrough at the retreat, but Zoya sees it as a likely turning point, with ripple effects expected in following weeks (10:19).

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3. Where Have All the Irish Pubs Gone? (11:15)

Dwindling Social Hubs for Brussels Politicos

• Iconic venues like De Valeras closed on New Year’s Eve; Kitty O’Shea’s has gone dark due to a gas leak but promises to return.
• These establishments are unofficial extensions of diplomatic life, frequented by officials and journalists:

  “It really was a place where the higher echelons of the European Commission would go in and have conversations…” – Ian (12:15)

Personal & Institutional Impact

• Zoya recounts being locked out of Kitty O’Shea’s, joined by diplomats “looking for a cheeky drink.”
• Soliciting audience suggestions for their next after-work haunt (12:53).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the purpose of the new approach to enlargement:

  “We need to give Volodymyr Zelensky… something that he can take to his people next year in 2027, which will allow them to see progress on this membership bid.” – Zoya (04:03)

• On EU leaders’ challenge with competitiveness:

  “The problem...is that we all agree on the disease, we just don’t agree on the cure for it.” – Zoya (09:23)

• On the culture of Brussels Irish pubs:

  “Often you see it [Kitty O’Shea’s] as an extension of where business gets done, where diplomats and senior officials go in to talk business.” – Ian (11:30)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ukraine’s Five-Point EU Accession Plan: 01:27 – 06:51
• Enlargement Process & “Reverse Enlargement” Detailed: 03:05 – 04:21
• Hungary’s Blockade and Article 7: 05:09 – 06:51
• Competitiveness Debate Intro & von der Leyen’s Letter: 07:16 – 09:00
• Divisions on Economic Policy: 09:00 – 10:19
• Significance of Leaders’ Retreat: 10:19 – 10:59
• Irish Pub Closures in Brussels: 11:15 – 13:11

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Conclusion

Episode 1 of the Brussels Playbook Podcast delivers a concise but deep look at the high-stakes questions animating Brussels: how to get Ukraine into the EU despite entrenched opposition, how to keep Europe competitive in a turbulent geopolitical landscape, and—on the lighter side—how the character of political Brussels is shaped by its cultural institutions, even its pubs.

Tone: Breezy, conversational, with a distinctly pragmatic and well-informed perspective thanks to Zoya and Ian’s lively, peer-level rapport.

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Stay Tuned

• Next episode: More key insights from Brussels politics, with the same reporting-driven, energetic tone.
• Listener engagement: Share your Brussels pub stories or tips with the POLITICO team.

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Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is presented by Amazon. Across Europe, businesses are growing with the AWS cloud to build innovative, scalable products from Europe's largest enterprises and government agencies to the continent's fastest growing startups. Learn more about how AWS Cloud is helping businesses across Europe grow@AWS EU.

[B]

It's Tuesday, February 10th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast, your guide to what's driving EU politics. The vibe today, it's creative because the EU is trying to find a way to get Ukraine into the bloc. Also on the table, competitiveness is back again. And is this the last call before Brussels Irish pubs disappear?

[C]

No.

[B]

Oh, no. I know. Alright. I'm Zoya Shevdolovic, POLITICO's chief EU correspondent, and with me in the studio today is our senior EU politics editor and my boss, Ian Wishart. Hey, Ian.

[C]

Hi, Zoya. Good morning, everyone. And you know what I've been thinking, Zoya?

[B]

Go on then.

[C]

I think Brussels has been crying out for a breezy, energetic 15 minute podcast. Looking ahead to the Daisy, you news. What do you think?

[B]

I think breezy and energetic are my middle names, Ian.

[C]

Let's get on with it then.

[B]

Let's do it. Our first story today, it's about Ukraine and how the EU is quietly exploring some pretty unconventional ways to bring Kyiv into the fold as soon. As soon as. Maybe even next year. Hey, Ian.

[C]

Yeah. You've been discussing this with diplomats and officials for the last few days and we break this story on our homepage and in Playbook this morning. And you say there's basically five points that the Commission are working on, sort of a plan to get Ukraine into the eu. Do you want to just briefly spell out what those five points are?

[B]

So what they are is firstly, it's getting Ukraine ready. And that's the super important one, Ian, because no one's talking about shortcuts or not meeting the benchmarks it needs to meet. They really want Ukraine. Do the homework. Now. Step two, it's kind of creating this EU membership light phase, where countries are able to attend European Council summits, have discussions with the EU at various levels, but they don't yet have all of the privileges of EU membership. Step three is waiting for the Hungarian.

[C]

Election, which is in April.

[B]

Which is in April. Exactly. Step four is if Viktor Orban wins the Hungarian election in April, given he is against Ukraine's EU membership, it's seeing if Donald Trump might pressure his old mate into saying. And step five is if everything else fails, then perhaps starting the process of stripping Hungary of its voting rights so that it can't keep blocking Ukraine's bid.

[C]

Okay, so let's just go back a bit and look at some context here. There's not been a country join the EU since Croatia did in 2013. Obviously, though, the invasion of Ukraine has changed that dynamic quite a lot. Ukraine applied to join in February 2022. There are nine candidate countries. And I think you were told, weren't you, that on Friday the Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, was asked about this in a meeting of national ambassadors. You know, even on Friday, this is a live issue, isn't it?

[B]

Yeah, that's right. So Ursula von der Leyen had lunch with some ambassadors on Friday, and they asked her to essentially have a look at and tell them, you know, what's going on with this enlargement process. And she mentioned that one of the options the Commission is considering is this idea of reverse enlargement.

[C]

What does that mean? That sounds like countries are going to leave the block.

[B]

It sounds like it, but it's not. So it's basically the idea of if we've got countries that have done almost all of their homework, or even in the case of Ukraine, for instance, potentially all of their homework, but they're still being blocked from entry into the eu, then we allow them entry into the block, they'll finish their homework, whatever final say, 1% of homework needs to be done, and then they'll get all of the benefits that come along.

[C]

They're basically kind of lowering the bar. And even before all the criteria fulfilled, you get countries like Ukraine into the eu, perhaps their ambassadors go to CO repair, and perhaps the leaders will turn up at the European Council. Is it that kind of thing? Sort of full voting rights, I suppose, yeah.

[B]

Without full voting rights. But what I will say is I don't think anyone is talking about lowering the bar per se. I think what they're saying is we need to give Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, something that he can take to his people next year in 2027, which will allow them to see progress on this membership bid.

[C]

And this is the urgency, isn't it? This is why we're talking about 2027.

[B]

That's right. Because essentially what's happened is we've got these peace talks that are currently being undertaken. The US is driving that process. Ukraine and Russia and the EU are also involved. And at a certain point, Volodymyr Zelensky knows that he's going to have to present the deal to his people for a referendum, because that is essentially what he said he would do if there's a peace deal, he's going to take it to the people. And there is this fear in Kyiv that if he goes to the people with a pretty difficult peace deal, which may require making territorial concessions, but he doesn't have something that says, but look at this, we'll get EU membership. This is the date that we're going for. The fear is that people will say no to that peace deal in a referendum and then the war is intractable.

[C]

Now, one major spoke in the wheel here, as you said at the start, is Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader. What is being thought of there? What about the Hungary issue?

[B]

It is an issue. Orban has said categorically that he will never allow Ukraine to join the eu. Now with Orban, sometimes he says things, but he can be talked around.

[C]

Let's be clear, this is important because it's unanimous. You have to have every single member state agreeing to another country joining.

[B]

That's right. And that's why we really need Orban on board. So plan A is effectively to get him to say yes one way or another. And the hope is once the election is over, if he does indeed win it, then he may be less intractable in his position. Plan B is maybe Donald Trump might give him ring and say, victor, lift your veto. I want my peace deal, I want next year's Nobel Peace Prize. Plan C is, look, maybe he'll leave the room or some other thing where, you know, we can work around him. And then if all else fails, there is now talk about Article 7. That's the article that strips countries of their voting rights. It wouldn't be because Orban is staying in the way on this particular thing. To be clear, it's not like, oh well, he doesn't want you in the eu, we want you in the euro. There go your voting rights. It's because he has overseen a pretty significant rollback of rule of law and democracy in Hungary.

[C]

So the, it's interesting, that's part of the question. I mean, using Article 7 to take away a member states voting rights is, is a pretty massive thing for the EU to do.

[B]

It is, and again, no one is saying this part out loud because of the Hungarian election because they're very clear that nothing will happen before the election and it's not a threat that he can use in his campaign. It's really just saying if you keep standing in the way, if you keep on making these reforms that harm rule of law in Hungary, then we may be forced to act.

[C]

Okay, Zoya I mean, this is quite a major story, and I'm really glad that you got to write this because I know that it's personal to you because of, you know, you coming from Ukraine. It's obviously going to dominate this year in parallel to the peace talks. So I'm sure we'll come back to it again on the podcast. But for now, shall we go on to the second story, which is about competitiveness. Foreign.

[B]

It's the informal leaders retreat this Thursday.

[C]

In a place called in Belgium, a place called Alden Bisson. Do you know where that is?

[B]

I don't, but I do know that I'm going to need to get on a bus at the butt crack of Dornian.

[C]

Is that an Australian expression?

[B]

I don't know. He said, I thought it was universal.

[C]

Okay, let's get serious, because you may have seen this letter that Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, sent out yesterday afternoon. It's rather dense, eight pages long. It's about competitiveness. She says the world is being increasingly shaped by raw power, strategic rivalry, and the weaponization of dependencies. I don't really know what weaponization of dependencies mean, do you?

[B]

Well, what it means, Ian, is China threatening to withdraw its rare earths from the world and the US Threatening tariffs on the eu? It's basically all of the times in which the EU has looked around over the past few years and gone, oh, no, we're right in the middle and we don't have a competitive agenda.

[C]

I think that's interesting because the commission have been talking about competitiveness basically ever since I arrived in Brussels in 2010 anyway. But now it seems to be more urgent than that. It seems to be about geopolitics as well.

[B]

It is. And I think I can really pinpoint the date when everything changed. That was when Donald Trump did his truth social post, threatening EU countries that were going to send troops to Greenland with trade tariffs. It was such a moment, Ian. It was a cataclysm, really, at the EU level. I was speaking with diplomats afterwards, and they really like a chorus. All of them to a T were saying, this is the moment when we realized we need to actually do something and complete all of these things that we've started and only half managed to do, like the capital markets union, like the banking union.

[C]

What's interesting, though, is that it looks like governments are quite divided, as they always are. The geopolitics hasn't made them agree. You know, you look at what Germany are calling for and it's deregulation it's measures to make it easier for small business. You look at France, on the other hand, and it's public money for defense, for technology, for infrastructure. There's still quite a split there, isn't there?

[B]

There is. And it's the problem that diplomats talk about all the time. You know, over the last week or two, I go and I meet with diplomats and they say, the problem, Zoya, is that we all agree on the disease, we just don't agree on the cure for it, because everyone's got their own pet industry that they want to protect and they're on board right up until it comes to that time when they have to make a difficult decision that might make this voter or that voter say, hold on a second, I'm going to vote far right or far left. That's really the problem. That being said, Ian, I do think that that's what this EU leaders retreat is for. It's getting the EU heads of state and government into a room in a castle, Natchez, where they can discuss what the roadblocks are and hopefully agree to make some pretty significant painful changes at home.

[C]

Are they going to come up with that after just like a few hours chatting? This is like just another step on the way to coming up with something, isn't it? It's not that they're going to come up with any concrete answers on Thursday.

[B]

I think we probably will get to the end of Thursday and I'm sure that I will see a bunch of stories saying EU does nothing again. But I'm fairly confident, having spoken with some pretty well informed diplomats, that while that may be the narrative on the day, over the ensuing weeks and maybe months, we're going to see some pretty significant changes where the leaders will go back to their home countries, to their capitals, and they will have instructions that are going out to various ministries, to various ministers, saying, right, we've got to act on this. So I do think we will look back on this potentially and see it as a turning point. It just might not look like one immediately.

[C]

Okay, so you're going to be on your early morning bus on Thursday morning with a load of grumpy journalists. They might not have any caffeine, but they won't be hungover either, will they? Because that leads us on to our third story.

[B]

That's right, Ian. It's a sad story. Irish pubs are disappearing from around Brussels. First it was de Valeras on New Year's Eve, no less, shutting its doors for good. Now Kitty o' Shea is temporarily closed. What's happening. Is this dry January taking its toll?

[C]

Well, I think it sounds a bit more significant than that. And also we're talking about kitties in particular because it's just over the road from the Berlimond, the European Commission headquarters. Often you see it as an extension of where business gets done, where diplomats and senior officials go in to talk business. So it's quite a big thing, actually.

[B]

It is. And it's the sort of place that you end up at the end of.

[C]

A Friday night, up there.

[B]

I do end up there.

[C]

You end up there, didn't you, when it was closed last week?

[B]

I did. It was a devastating tale. It was me and a few diplomats looking for a cheeky drink on a Friday and we showed up and the doors were shut, the lights were out. An anguished cry emitted from one of my fellow would be drinkers. I won't name names, but suffice to say they'll know who they are.

[C]

I remember back in the day seeing Martin Sellmeyer in there, obviously the chief of staff of Jean Claude Juncker. You know, he used to go in there a few times. It really was place where the higher echelons of the European Commission would go in and, and have conversations and journalists would go and try to get bits, snippets of information there. So it's quite a big thing. But it doesn't sound like it's going to be permanent, does it? They say they're going to open again, so they say.

[B]

So they say that there's an issue with a gas leak and while they're close to resolve it, they'll also maybe do a little Renault. So maybe we'll go in and the floors will be clean.

[C]

Hey, that'll be nice, won't it? Where should we go instead? Is the only alternative to go back to our gloomy apartments on our own with a bottle of whiskey, do you think?

[B]

I hope not. Sounds really sad. If any of our listeners have any ideas about where we should go now, please send us your tips. You can do that with a voice note on WhatsApp. The number is in our show notes. And maybe while you're there, send us a memory or an anecdote about a time in a pub in Brussels.

[C]

Make sure you're sober.

[B]

Well, indeed. Oh, look, maybe don't. Anonymity guaranteed. No one needs to know. Alrighty, Ian, before we go, a quick birthday shout out to Johann Vodaful, the German Foreign Minister who's turning 63 today.

[C]

Allers Gutersum Geburtstag. I've written that down.

[B]

What?

[C]

It's German for Happy birthday.

[B]

Well, happy Birthday, Sir Stohlat. To him. Alright, that's it for the debut of the Brussels Playbook podcast. Make sure you're subscribed so you don't miss an episode. Ian, thanks.

[C]

We'll be back tomorrow, won't we? If they let us listen.

[B]

Unless they shut us down, you'll be hearing us bright and early. I'm Zoya Shevdolovic, back with you soon.

[A]

A message from Amazon. Across Europe, businesses are growing with the AWS cloud to build innovative, scalable products. From Europe's largest enterprises and government agencies to the fastest growing startups, customers choose the AWS cloud to lower costs, increase security and innovate faster. Learn more about how businesses across Europe are growing with the AWS cloud at aws. Eugene.