Europe braces for an energy crisis

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast: "Europe Braces for an Energy Crisis"

Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (B), with Nick Vinocur (C), POLITICO’s Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent

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Overview

In this episode, Zoya Sheftalovich and guest Nick Vinocur delve into Europe’s escalating energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran and discuss whether EU leaders have absorbed the lessons from the 2022 crisis. The episode also features a scoop on an attempted political reconciliation between two of the European Parliament’s biggest factions, and a lighter segment on which Belgian city is now officially the country’s “happiest.” The engaging, conversational tone offers clarity and wit on the major issues moving Brussels today.

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1. Europe’s Energy Crisis Redux (00:35–06:51)

Context:

The war in Iran has sent energy prices surging, eliciting memories of the 2022 crisis post-Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Key Points & Insights:

• Impact of War in Iran:
  • The Strait of Hormuz, critical for 20% of the world's oil, is essentially closed due to Tehran’s threats.
  • Oil and gas production in the Gulf is disrupted by missile and drone attacks, drastically impacting European energy prices. (02:02)
• Price Surge:
  • Oil surpassed $100/barrel; gas price increased above €60 per megawatt hour—levels not seen since the 2022 crisis, though not yet at its peak. (02:28)
  • 67% of the EU’s energy is still fossil fuel-based and most of it is imported, leaving the bloc notably vulnerable. (02:57)

Notable Quotes:

• “Despite the fact we've had four years to prepare for another crisis like this, leaders are scrambling to respond.” — Zoya Sheftalovich (01:58)
• “Oil being driven up is actually giving [Putin] way more money to continue waging war on Ukraine. So this is really bad news for Europe.” — Zoya (03:05)

The European Response:

• G7 countries are prepared to release emergency oil reserves (03:26).
• President Macron plans to send naval escorts to the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels—signaling high-level prioritization.
• The European Commission may invoke solidarity measures, such as joint gas purchases and financial support post-disasters, but practical challenges persist: "Countries don’t buy gas, companies do." — Zoya (04:19)

Strategic & Political Fallout:

• Energy crisis has recharged (pun intended) calls for rapid renewable energy deployment, even as political divides (notably from the EPP) threaten the Green Deal’s future. (05:02)
  • "The new chair of the Parliament’s Environment Committee told our colleague Zia Visa that the Iran war shows the Green Deal is fundamental to EU security." — Nick (05:20)
• Ursula von der Leyen is set to unveil a plan to tackle energy prices at the next European Council summit. (05:48)
• High living costs are empowering both far-left and far-right parties across the EU. Viktor Orbán is leveraging the crisis to argue against quitting Russian energy, while the U.S. (under Trump) considers sanction relief on Russian oil via India to stabilize markets. (06:31–06:51)

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2. EU Political “Dinner Diplomacy” (07:08–10:49)

Context:

Efforts are underway to mend the frayed relationship between Manfred Weber (EPP) and Iraqa Garcia (S&D)—the Parliament’s top center-right and center-left leaders.

Key Points:

• Unlikely Dinner Date:
  • Weber and Garcia, with 10 deputies, dined at Strasbourg’s Leonor Hotel to patch things up after a year of public disputes and “cordon sanitaire” breaches by the EPP. (07:13)
  • "When do you not bring 10 people for an intimate dinner date?" — Nick (07:43)
• Deep Political Rift:
  • Disputes date back to 2019, when Garcia and the Liberals blocked Weber’s bid for Commission president, souring trust.
  • They've clashed over working with the far-right to pass legislation—an "original sin" for the S&D. (08:24)
• Consequences for Ursula von der Leyen:
  • If the S&D pulls support, von der Leyen’s Commission presidency could be at risk. “If the S&D swings against her, that could happen. And that would be an earthquake in political terms.” — Nick (09:54)
  • Both parties admit trust likely won’t be restored—residual “toxic exes” vibes linger. (08:18–10:14)

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3. Brussels Named Belgium’s “Happiest” City (10:57–11:58)

Context:

A surprising result from Belgium’s National Happiness Survey for 2026.

Key Details:

• Brussels, with a score of 6.62/10, tops the national list, though “doesn’t seem that happy.” (11:17)
  • “It’s pretty mediocre. So I’m wondering…how miserable [other cities] are. They must be really in bad shape.” — Nick (11:25)
• Flanders outscored Wallonia—no surprise to locals.
• Overall, happiness scores have declined since 2020, post-COVID optimism having faded.

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4. Listeners’ Idiom Hall of Fame (12:01–14:10)

Community Segment:

The hosts share favorite multicultural idioms submitted by listeners:

Highlights:

• “Now the boiled pig is fried” (Swedish): Shared by listener Eric; means “when something’s gone terribly wrong”—though even Swedish Nick hasn’t heard it! (12:27–12:42)
• Italian & Russian idioms about tastes: From Nicola in Italy: Italians say, “there are those who like to go smashing their butts on cliffs” (colorfully meaning “different strokes for different folks”), with a Russian equivalent “for taste and color, there are no friends.” (13:07–13:38)

Zoya: “Frankly, it sounds like it’s gone terribly right to me because I would always rather a fried pig than a boiled one.” (12:42)

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5. Closing Banter & Listener Call-Outs (13:38–14:38)

• Hosts encourage listeners (especially from Malta) to send in local idioms via WhatsApp.
• Zoya: “The word of mouth is the best way to get people to listen to our podcast. Nick, have you been telling your friends?”
  Nick: “Everyone. They’ve asked me to stop telling them.” (14:10)
• Ends with upbeat rapport, inviting continued audience engagement.

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Most Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Zoya on déjà vu:
  "It's all starting to feel a bit like 2022. But the question is, have we learned any lessons from that Russian invasion of Ukraine?" (00:30)
• Nick on the “intimate” dinner:
  “When do you not bring 10 people for an intimate dinner date?” (07:43)
• Survey skepticism:
  “It’s pretty mediocre. So I’m wondering about the other cities and how miserable they are." — Nick (11:25)
• Idiom breakdown:
  “Now the boiled pig is fried… Frankly, it sounds like it’s gone terribly right to me.” — Zoya (12:42)

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Key Takeaways

• Europe faces a renewed energy crisis driven by external conflict, with political, economic, and diplomatic reverberations.
• EU parliamentary politics remain fractious, risking high-level instability if alliances fracture.
• Cost-of-living pressures and energy insecurity are stoking populist movements.
• Belgian happiness is… relative. And idioms, as always, delight.

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For more listener idioms or to contact the hosts, find the Brussels Playbook Podcast on WhatsApp (number in show notes).

Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is presented by Amazon. Across Europe, businesses are growing with the AWS cloud to build innovative, scalable products from Europe's largest enterprises and government agencies to the continent's fastest growing startups. Learn more about how AWS Cloud is helping businesses across Europe grow@AWS EU.

[B]

Good morning. It's Tuesday, March 10th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. Yeah, that's the energy I'm bringing today, guys. The vibe in Brussels today, it's pretty frantic. That's because following the war in Iran, oil prices are up and the EU is scrambling to find a way to lower them. It's all starting to feel a bit like 2022. But the question is, have we learned any lessons from that Russian invasion of Ukraine? Awesome on the pod. The European People's Party chief, Manfred Weber and Iraqa Garcia, the leader of the Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament. They're hoping some dinner dates will resolve some bad blood. And which city do you reckon is the happiest in Belgium? You'll never believe it, Nick.

[C]

I know. I've seen the results and I still don't believe it.

[B]

Shocked. Alrighty, folks, Ian is off this week. So we've got Nick Vinicourt, Politico's chief foreign affairs correspondent, back with me this morning. Nick, how was your workout?

[C]

Really painful. Still feeling it today.

[B]

Well, I'm looking forward to seeing the gains, the buff bod. It's going to be out in time for summer.

[C]

That's why it's a podcast and you can't see me.

[B]

You've got a great face for radio.

[C]

Thank you.

[B]

All right, for our first story today, the war in Iran. It's giving leaders some flashbacks to Europe back in 2022. That is when oil prices skyrocketed in the wake of the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine. And Europe was dealt a pretty hefty energy crisis. N and gas prices were surging then. They are surging again. Despite the fact we've had four years to prepare for another crisis like this, leaders are scrambling to respond.

[C]

Yeah, indeed. The Strait of Hormuz, which is where 20% of the world's oil is transported through, is basically closed due to Tehran's ongoing threats. We've got oil and gas production at several sites in Gulf countries that are shut down or stopped. Iranian drones and missiles targeting energy infrastructure across the region. The whole industry is severely disrupt and this is having a direct impact on energy prices here in Europe.

[B]

Yeah, and the price of a barrel of oil broke the US$100 mark yesterday, which is pretty huge across Europe. Also, the price of gas, which was the main driver of that 2022 crisis, that's surging above €60 per megawatt hour. So it's not quite as high as back in 2022, but higher than really any time since then. And 67% of the EU's energy consumption still comes from fossil fuels, and most of that is imported. Pretty exposed.

[C]

Absolutely. And it does remind us of those days. And I remember what a political tinderbox it was back then, and it sure is today as well.

[B]

Yeah. And you know, Nick, the biggest winner out of this might just be Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, because guess what? Oil being driven up is actually giving him way more money to continue waging war on Ukraine. So this is really bad news for Europe, which is supporting Ukraine in this fight. Very bad news for Ukraine, obviously, but great news for Putin, indeed.

[C]

Yeah. And I think this is really setting alarm bells ringing around Europe and around the G7 about how to bring down these oil prices. We had G7 countries indicating yesterday they are ready to release some emergency oil reserves. That's a massive move. You've also got French President Emmanuel Macron saying that he intends to send ships, naval vessels, to the Straits of Hormuz to escort commercial vessels. These leaders are clearly treating this as a matter of top priority for them.

[B]

Yeah. And the EU is also scrambling at that Brussels level to try to do what it can. Though, of course, a lot of this stuff is national competence, not EU competence. But there are some things that Europe can do. So the EU can invoke solidarity measures. That's like financial support after severe natural disasters. And they can do that to try to limit gas market volatility and do joint purchases of gas. The problem is that countries don't buy gas, companies do.

[C]

Right. Which limits their ability to really weigh on the price. But what we're really talking about is unlocking those oil reserves. That looks like something that could come across if the conflict continues and the strait remains shut off.

[B]

Yeah. And so our colleagues on the energy team, they've been busy reporting out on all sorts of elements of this over the past week, really. And one of the things that they've reported is that the Commission is actually. This has given some renewed energy, pardon the pun, to end the reliance on fossil fuels and replace that reliance with renewable energy. But it comes as the epp, the European People's Party of Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, is pushing her to slash green legislation.

[C]

Yeah. So this is a bit of an irony, right? For the past year and a half, essentially since the 24 European Parliament election, a dominant EPP has been leading this charge against the green deal and kind of unwinding a lot of that legislation. And now we're in a situation where EU countries are actually saying, we need renewable energy, we need all that stuff. So it's coming to the fore. We had a story. The new chair of the Parliament's Environment Committee told our colleague Zia Visa that the Iran war shows the Green deal is fundamental to EU security. That's a new argument. But it has become a headache for Brussels because leaders are facing more and more anger over high bills and sluggish economic growth. It's not clear that simply regulating fossil fuels is going to bring down the prices in the short term.

[B]

Yeah. So what we're expecting is Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, she's going to present to member countries her plan to reel in energy prices at the next European Council summit, which is happening later this month. So she's got some stuff up her sleeve. And it's really important because we know that high energy prices, high cost of living, you know, we talked about this yesterday. That is definitely driving the rise of far left and far right parties in various countries around the bloc. And you know, Viktor Orban in Hungary, he's been capitalizing on the war. He's saying that now it's time for the EU to reverse its plans to quit Russian oil and gas. And he's putting pressure on Ukraine to repair the Druzhba pipeline, which is carrying Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

[C]

Yeah, and there's even talk that the United States might relieve sanctions on Russian oil exports. The Trump administration said they would give fuel makers in India a temporary license to buy sanctioned Russian oil as a way to help bring down energy prices. That goes right back to the story we were talking about before, about how the war is a win for Putin, at least for now.

[B]

This is going to be a huge one, Nick. Let's keep on watching, and I'm sure you'll be hearing more from us, folks on this one. Folks, our next story today, it's about a rocky relationship that's on the mend because of some dinner dates.

[C]

Yeah, great story. Lots of sparks romance in this one.

[B]

It really is quite a good one. One of our colleagues, Max Guerrero, he has been looking into the fact that two of Europe's big political heavy hitters, Manfred Weber, who's the leader of the European People's Party, and Aracha Garcia, who's the chief of the Socialists And Democrats, they have been on a dinner date to try to repair what has been a pretty fractious relationship. That's according to five people who were there on the night in February, Weber and Garcia, along with 10 of their closest deputies.

[C]

Because when do you not bring 10 people for an intimate dinner date?

[B]

I know that's. That was Valentine's Day for me, Nick. So they went out for a meal at the four star Leonor Hotel in the center of Strasbourg last month.

[C]

That's right. And let's recall that, you know, the relationship between these two parties used to be quite amicable. They are really the sort of main coalition backing up the Commission president. And now one MEP described the relationship as being like two toxic exes who can't talk to each other. Between these two, the biggest political groups in, in the Parliament.

[B]

Yeah. And they've been fighting for basically a year on everything from the EU's long term budget to the EPP voting on various pieces of legislation with members of the far right breaking what's known as the cordon Senator in EU speak. It's this idea that you shouldn't pass legislation with the far right. So it's been pretty significantly destroyed. Their relationship dates back actually though to 2019, which was when a Garcia, along with the Liberals, told Webber that she wouldn't actually support his bid to become the Commission president. He thought he had the European Commission presidency in the bag because he was the lead candidate of the party that ended up doing the best in the EU election. But he then was passed over in light of Ursula von der Leyen coming onto the scene, who's now been the president. This is her second term, so really that was where that trust disappeared. And they've been struggling ever since then to get back on the same page.

[C]

Well, now you're just bringing up old stuff. And we said we wouldn't do that.

[B]

And you know, one of the things that we've been talking to people about is the fact that there's a fear that if these two groups really are irreparably broken up, then that could be something that leads to sort of a political accident, so to speak. That's a phrase I've heard even just yesterday when I was talking with various diplomats around town. You know, what could happen is there might be a motion of no confidence. We know that there have already been four, but there might be another one. And if the S and D, which is run by Garcia, decide that they're not going to support von der Leyen of the epp, well, she Might be out.

[C]

It could happen. It could absolutely happen. If the S and D swings against her, of course, that could happen. And that would be an earthquake in political terms. But we've seen a number of these motions of censure, and things can always change. Now, in a way, what's interesting is that both of these people recognize the relationship is just not going back to the way it was before.

[B]

Yeah. Because trust is lost. I think it all. It really does. I know we said we weren't going to rehash old relationship history, but it really does go back to that 2019 situation.

[C]

Yeah. And I would say from the S and D perspective, this cooperation with the far right voting on certain files, that's the sort of original sin there that they can't forgive. We can't work with you if you're working with those parties.

[B]

Yeah. And I think they're going to keep working with those parties. We know there are some contentious votes on migration coming up, and that's something that certainly the EPP has been looking at the far right to vote through.

[C]

Looking with a spark in their eye or a glint.

[B]

Mick, onto our last story. This one is pretty shocking. It's about happiness. The 2026 edition of the National Happiness Surve is out. And guess what? Brussels is the happiest part of Belgium. Can you believe it?

[C]

I'm having a hard time, but that's what the words say on this piece of paper.

[B]

Yeah. They say that residents of the capital scored 6.62 out of 10 on the happiness scale, which, to be fair, doesn't seem that happy.

[C]

It's pretty mediocre. So I'm wondering about the other cities and how miserable they are. They must be really in bad shape.

[B]

Absolutely. Well, apparently people in Flanders scored higher than Wallonia. No surprises there.

[C]

Right.

[B]

It's all of that, you know, Flanders superiority complex that we see. But look, depressingly, the scores have been falling. There's been a downward trend since 2020, and there was like, a slight blip of improvement after Covid when people were released from their homes. But now we're back down to gloomy times.

[C]

That sounds about right.

[B]

What would you score yourself out of 10?

[C]

An 8.8.

[B]

Oh, my God. That's outstanding. I'm going to go with 11 for me. Just to outdo you, Nick, before we go, yesterday we did a call out. We asked for people to send through their local idioms from their various languages and places, and we got some really, really good ones. So we had one listener called Eric. He told us that In Swedish there's a saying that goes, now the boiled pig is fried. Do you know that one?

[C]

So I read that and I really wonder, is that a real thing? Because I've never heard that in my life. But if Eric says so, and you

[B]

are a card carrying Swede.

[C]

I am. And I speak it. And I know some of the expressions, but not that one. I was trying to translate it in my head. Not, not quite getting there.

[B]

Well, apparently it's when something has gone terribly wrong, it's the boiled pig is fried. Frankly, it sounds like it's gone terribly right to me because I would always rather a fried pig than a boiled one.

[C]

I know. I was like, I'm getting kind of hungry reading that. But anyway.

[B]

All right, well, we've got another one. Nicola from Italy says that Italians have adapted the Latin American Latin phrase, tastes are not to be debated

[C]

for the Latin speakers among us. I know they're listening.

[B]

They're absolutely listening. Surely the linguists are on to us. Well, they've got a more graphic version of that. And listener, my apologies, I'm gonna have to censor what Nicola told us because we want to keep our squeaky clean rating on this podcast. So know that there is a three letter equivalent of the word I'm about to use. But in Italy they say there are those who like to go smashing their butts on cliffs.

[C]

I just have no comment for that.

[B]

There's actually a Russian equivalent to that.

[C]

Different strokes for different folks.

[B]

Exactly. And the Russian equivalent is for taste and color. There are no friends. Listen, we're loving your idioms. Please do keep them coming. Our WhatsApp number is in the show notes. I am so, so keen to hear more, especially from some of the wider reaches of the eu. We haven't heard anything from Malta. Malta. Tell us what your idioms are. All right, our WhatsApp number is in the show notes. Please do keep in touch with us. We love hearing from you. And if you like the pod, tell a friend or two. I think they might like to hear about it. Nick, have you been telling your friends?

[C]

Everyone. They've asked me to stop telling them.

[B]

Have you been telling your enemies?

[C]

Anyone? Anyone and everyone?

[B]

I love that. Friends, enemies, mothers, brothers, lovers. The word of mouth is the best way to get people to listen to our podcast. Alright, well, that's it from us and we will speak to you tomorrow.

[A]

A message from Amazon. Across Europe, businesses are growing with the AWS cloud to build innovative, scalable products from Europe's largest enterprises and government agencies to the fastest growing startups. Customers choose the AWS cloud to lower costs, increase security, and innovate faster. Learn more about how businesses across Europe are growing with the AWS cloud at aws Eugene.