Europe edges toward a multi-speed future

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Brussels Playbook Podcast

Episode Title: Europe edges toward a multi-speed future
Date: February 16, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (POLITICO’s chief EU correspondent)
Guest: Nick Vinicour (POLITICO’s chief foreign affairs correspondent)
Theme:
This episode explores Europe’s increasingly fragmented trajectory as a “multi-speed” union, the nuances behind EU-US relations following the Munich Security Conference, the formation of an ambitious group of six major EU economies (the “E6” or “S Club 6”), and a look at Brussels’ political breakthrough with its new regional government.

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Main Topics and Insights

1. The Munich Security Conference: EU Skepticism over US Outreach

• Key Segment: [01:05] – [04:41]
  • Overview:
    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio replaced the absent Vice President at Munich, delivering a speech heavy on shared history and calls for a revitalized transatlantic friendship. Despite a warm reception in the room, European diplomats and politicians remained unconvinced of a genuine reset.
  • Insight:
    The apparent olive branch masked consistent US expectations that Europe “needs saving” from progressive policies and immigration, reinforcing an ongoing split.
  • Notable Quotes:
    • “This was an early valentine for Europe. Marco Rubio peppered his speech with references to a shared history. He said he wants to see a stronger Europe, to revitalize the friendship. The tone was far softer than what Vance has said, but the underlying message was still pretty similar. The west is facing civilizational decline…”
      – Nick Vinicour [01:48]
    • “There might have been a standing O in the room, but that's not what I was getting in my WhatsApp messages… loads of diplomats coming through and saying: ‘Hey, actually this is more of the same.’”
      – Zoya Sheftalovich [02:20]
    • “Ursula von der Leyen praised Rubio, saying she was reassured by the speech. But you also had Finnish president Alexander Stubb saying the substance hadn't changed and pointing to MAGA ideology as a big divider…”
      – Nick Vinicour [03:17]
    • “Kaia Kallas...pushing back on the idea that Europe needs saving. She said, ‘contrary to what some may say, woke decadent Europe is not facing civilizational erasure...’”
      – Nick Vinicour [03:45]
  • Memorable Moment:
    Rubio’s immediate trip to Budapest, interpreted as support for Viktor Orbán, highlighted US engagement with “troublesome” segments of Europe.

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2. Strategic Questions: Europe’s Nuclear Deterrent and China

• Key Segment: [04:14] – [07:05]
  • Overview:
    The specter of European security autonomy is rising, with Germany’s Friedrich Merz proposing discussions on France sharing its nuclear deterrent—a move Latvia, Estonia, and Sweden are open to; but Spain remains resistant. Simultaneously, anxiety mounts over China’s growing impact on European industry.
  • Insight:
    There’s a serious possibility that the EU may pursue an independent nuclear deterrence, especially if US reliability continues to waver. Economic fears, notably job losses from Chinese competition, are pushing a more hawkish stance.
  • Notable Quotes:
    • “France, which is the only nuclear power in the European Union, could share its nuclear deterrent with other European countries… that would be a very big shift indeed.”
      – Nick Vinicour [04:41]
    • “Clement Boon...gave me a very hawkish interview about China… He cited the number of 10,000 industrial job losses per month in Germany that are being lost due to increasingly high quality exports from China.”
      – Nick Vinicour [06:06]
  • Memorable Moment:
    Clement Boon’s proposal of a 30% tariff on some Chinese imports—“the first time I'd heard that spoken on the record”—signals the possibility of much tougher EU economic policies ahead.

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3. The Emergence of the E6 (“S Club 6”): Toward a Multi-Speed EU

• Key Segment: [07:05] – [11:12]
  • Overview:
    As the Eurogroup meets in Brussels, an informal bloc of six major economies (France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, Netherlands) is forming to drive forward reforms, especially the long-stalled Capital Markets Union.
  • Insight:
    This “tugboat” approach, aiming to draw the rest of the EU along, illustrates the practicality of a “coalition of the willing.” Ursula von der Leyen and others are supportive, suggesting the EU should “not be moving at the pace of the slowest.” However, procedural hurdles remain: enhanced cooperation requires nine countries, not six.
  • Notable Quotes:
    • “The idea...was to be a kind of tugboat for Europe pulling the tanker, the tanker being the other 21 countries of the European Union…”
      – Nick Vinicour [07:44]
    • “S Club 6, Seal Team 6, whatever you might want to call it… One of [the reforms] is the Capital Markets Union. This is something that has been attempted again and again in E27 format, and it's always failed…”
      – Nick Vinicour [08:42]
    • “The idea being that the people who want to move faster and be ambitious can move faster and be ambitious. Everyone else can watch and then maybe they'll join, maybe they won't.”
      – Zoya Sheftalovich [09:29]
  • Memorable Moment:
    Zoya’s analogy between the “tugboat” group and Rotterdam’s “hot tugs” brings levity to a technical topic—“Turn on your family filter!” [08:40]
  • Caveats:
    • Enhanced cooperation under EU rules requires nine countries, so six is insufficient.
    • Fears from excluded states that decisions are being “pre-cooked.”

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4. Brussels Regional Government: Surprise Breakthrough

• Key Segment: [11:12] – [12:51]
  • Overview:
    After 613 days of negotiations, Brussels finally has a new regional coalition government, forcing Zoya to “eat her hat” after she previously dismissed the prospect (“maybe he was listening to the podcast and needed to prove me wrong”).
  • Details:
    • New Minister-President: Boris Dillies (Reformist Movement)
    • Core Challenge: Closing a €1 billion budget deficit by 2029, possibly via savings, merging administrative functions, and new taxes.
    • The government is also seeking EU funds for infrastructural renovations.
  • Notable Quotes:
    • “They've got a coalition deal. It's pretty interesting because they're going to face some pretty significant challenges—the main one being a budget deficit of over a billion euro.”
      – Zoya Sheftalovich [11:44]
    • “Boris Dillies...his main task is going to be the budget. As you said, there's a deficit of over a billion euros.”
      – Nick Vinicour [12:01]

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5. Community Engagement & European Calendar

• Key Segment: [13:07] – [14:05]
  • Engagement:
    Listener Valentine’s messages, including a charming note from Amelia about her boyfriend, a Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs intern ([13:07]).
  • Notable Quotes:
    • “This good looking intern happens to be my very own boyfriend...and is the only person I can think of for Valentine's Day.”
      – Amelia, listener [13:21]
  • Celebrations:
    • Birthday wishes for Portuguese PM Montenegro and Swedish MEP Tobias Tobé.
    • Note of Lithuania’s Restoration of the State Day, with Parliament President Roberta Metsola attending in Vilnius.

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Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• On Transatlantic Relations:
  • “The west is facing civilizational decline due to ill designed policies from the climate cults in quote marks and mass migration and it needs saving from itself.” – Nick Vinicour [01:57]
• On European “Supergroups”:
  • “The idea...was to be a kind of tugboat for Europe pulling the tanker, the tanker being the other 21 countries of the European Union…” – Nick Vinicour [07:44]
• On Resistance to ‘Multi-speed’ Europe:
  • “The fear there is, well, you get together as this group of six big economies, you're going to pre-cook the decisions before we get a chance to discuss them at 27. That's not the spirit of the EU.” – Nick Vinicour [10:48]
• On Brussels Government Breakthrough:
  • “It took them 613 days. They've got a coalition deal. It's pretty interesting because they're going to face some pretty significant challenges.” – Zoya Sheftalovich [11:44]

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Key Timestamps

• US-EU Frictions & Munich Recap: [01:05] – [04:41]
• European Security and China: [04:14] – [07:05]
• Rise of EU Big Six Bloc: [07:44] – [11:12]
• Brussels Regional Politics: [11:12] – [12:51]
• Listener Messages & Celebrations: [13:07] – [14:05]

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Tone and Language

Conversational, lightly humorous, yet analytical. Zoya and Nick draw on inside reporting, political color, and relatable anecdotes (like “hot tugs” and eating hats) to keep the coverage vibrant and accessible.

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Conclusion

This episode offers behind-the-scenes clarity on key junctions in European politics:

• The uneasy recalibration of EU-US relations as American rhetoric softens—but not fundamentally changes—with Secretary Rubio’s speech.
• The reality of a “multi-speed Europe” with the big economies forming their own vanguard group, challenging both EU unity and its decision processes.
• The ongoing anxiety about global economic competitiveness, especially regarding China—and Europe’s willingness, at least rhetorically, to play geopolitical hardball.
• Local color with the dramatic resolution of Brussels’ own coalition puzzle.

A must-listen for anyone tracking EU dynamics at both the continental and city level.

Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is Presented by Amazon. 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Learn [e-mail] Good morning.

[B]

It's Monday, February 16th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe at the start of this week is skeptical as Europeans don't buy the US charm offensive at the Munich security conference. Also on the table, a group of six EU countries are spearheading reforms on their own. And I'm going to have to eat my hat over the Brussels government talks because there's been a boucher breakthrough. I'm Zoya Shevtolovich, POLITICO's chief EU correspondent, and with me today is Nick Vinicour, our chief foreign affairs correspondent. Hey, Nick.

[C]

Hi, Zoya.

[B]

Did you have a nice weekend?

[C]

Fantastic. Cold, but very romantic.

[B]

Go on, what did you do?

[C]

We went out to compose a bouquet for my wife with my seven year old daughter.

[B]

Well, that sounds lovely. I had a great one myself. I was in Rotterdam this weekend watching the tennis. My man, Alex De Minor, a fellow Aussie, absolutely wiped the floor with one French dude and one French Canadian. So what could be better? All right, let's get into it, Nick. All eyes were on the Munich security conference this weekend because Europe was waiting to see whether the White House, via its delegation in town, was going to deliver another JD Vance style scathing burn of Europe. That didn't happen. The US Vice President stayed home and we heard from Secretary of State Marco Rubio instead. And miracle of miracles, Nick, he got a standing O. Catch us up. What did he say to get it?

[C]

This was an early valentine for Europe. Marco Rubio peppered his speech with references to a shared history. How the EU needs to work together with the United States to reshape the global order. He said he wants to see a stronger Europe, to revitalize the friendship. The tone was far softer than what Vance has said, but the underlying message was still pretty similar. The west is facing civilizational decline due to ill designed policies from the climate cults in quote marks and mass migration and it needs saving from itself.

[B]

Yeah, and that did not land so well. There might have been a standing O in the room, but that's not what I was getting in my WhatsApp messages. And I gather that's not what you were getting either because loads of diplomats coming through and saying, hey, actually this is more of the same. This is just solidifying what we already knew was happening, which is that the US is essentially creating a chasm between Europe and the us And Rubio went straight from Munich to Bratislava for talks with Robert Fico. And today he's in Budapest in what many see as a move of support for Viktor Orban ahead of his April election. So it's not actually an olive branch that we saw from Marco Rubio, right, Nick?

[C]

No, I think what we saw was a real split reaction from the Europeans. I mean, we were reporting in the way into Munich that a lot of the diplomats wanted a reset, wanted to de escalate tensions. But what they're really talking about is they don't want to see the alliance fall apart before their eyes. They do realize that a lot of things need to change. So we had Ursula von der Leyen praising Rubio, saying she was very much reassured by the speech. But you also had the Finnish president Alexander Stubb, saying that the substance hadn't changed and pointing to MAGA ideology as a big divider between Europe and the United States. We had the EU's top diplomat, Kaia Kallas, also welcoming the speech, but pushing back on the idea that Europe needs saving. She said, contrary to what some may say woke decadent, Europe is not facing civilizational erasure and many countries still want to join our club and not just fellow Europeans. This is Europe's pushback to say we are attractive. We have cards, we have a lot of appeal to different countries in our neighborhood as part of the enlargement program. But also beyond that, Canada wanting to come closer to the eu trade deals being struck with India, with Latin American countries. That's part of the European argument, say, well, our model is attractive in its own right.

[B]

Yeah. And Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, he was another kind of leading voice that came out after this speech and said that essentially he was unconvinced, too. He gave a pretty rousing speech of his own in Munich that got noticed because he essentially said that, look, Europe's freedom is under threat. And he said there's a deep divide between Europe and the us so it was a pretty significant note. And he's also talking about a nuclear deterrent with France. What's that all about?

[C]

This is something that has had some discussions but seems to be gathering steam. The idea that France, which is the only nuclear power in the European Union, could share its nuclear deterrent with other European countries and eventually kind of either complement or even supplant the US nuclear nuclear deterrent, which is currently extended to all NATO members. And that would be a very big shift indeed.

[B]

Yeah, that's right, Nick. Look, it's one of those things that nuclear deterrent, it's a bit of a taboo in the past, but now we really are talking about it. Latvia, Estonia, Sweden, they're open to the idea. Of course, the Spanish Prime Minister, who is a socialist, Pedro Sanchez, less open to it, but nonetheless, we're going to hear more from Macron on this because he's going to deliver this big speech in March where he's likely to talk about this very thing. But it wasn't just nukes that Mertz mentioned in his speech. He also talked about China, and that was pretty key. So we know that the threat from Beijing is something that European leaders are starting to talk about more again. And Mertz accused Beijing and some pretty strident language of essentially exploiting Europe's economic dependencies and disrupting key industries. So that's been something that has been quite significant. And you've spoken to a key French official on this very topic. Tell us more about that. Yeah.

[C]

So I caught up with Clement Boon, who was a core minister for Emmanuel Macron for many years, Transport minister, Europe minister. Now he's in charge of the High Commission for Planning, which kind of sounds like a Soviet Five Year Plan, but it's an organism that's funded by the state that advises the government. It's not really government policy, but it certainly feeds into their thinking. And he gave me a very hawkish interview about China. He said, look, Europe has been super distracted by Trump, but we really need to refocus on the issue of China, which, in his words, is continuing to wreak havoc on European industry. He cited the number of 10,000 industrial job losses per month in Germany that are being lost due to increasingly high quality exports from China. And he has also some pretty radical solutions that he wanted to put on the table, including a 30% tariff against certain Chinese imports. It's certainly the first time I'd heard that spoken on the record, but he's really putting that squarely on the table. And I agree with you. I think we're getting into a real China sequence after this big transatlantic moment.

[B]

Yeah. What I'm hearing is that Clement Byrne has a bone to pick with Beijing. Try and say that three times fast. With that, let's move on to our second story. We are going to be talking about the finance ministers who are gathering in Brussels today for the Eurogroup meeting. They're going to discuss ideas on how to strengthen the international role of the euro. But it's probably going to get a bit feisty because they are also going to be Meeting while there is this kind of separate group developing. It's the format you dubbed S Club 6, which I really enjoy, but officially it's called the E6.

[C]

So what we're talking about is the EU's six largest economies, France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, getting together as sort of a spearhead group to talk about certain sort of hard to achieve reforms. And they've met before, but now they're meeting in person, head of the Eurogroup. And the idea, as one diplomat from a participating nation described it to me, was to be a kind of tugboat for Europe pulling the tanker, the tanker being the other 21 countries of the European Union along and conducting sort of these reforms.

[B]

I love that, Nick, because, you know, I was in Rotterdam this weekend and they have this thing called hot tugs, which is not what you think it is. It's these little dinghies that they fill up with hot water and people get in them and it's like a little portable hot tub tub, but it's a hot tug. So anyway, sorry, go on, Nick.

[C]

I can hear people frantically Googling as you're saying that.

[B]

Turn on your family filter.

[C]

People in any case, call it the tugboat or the spearhead. But the idea is for these six countries to come together and to try to sort of coalesce around certain reforms. One of them that is being talked about is the Capital Markets Union. This is something that has been attempted again and again in E27 format, and it's always failed because countries have such a strong interest in keeping their own financial markets essentially under national supervision. Countries like Luxembourg, Ireland, opposed to the Capital Markets Union. This all started with a speech by then French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who said, we've got to move forward in smaller groups. So now we're really watching this. S Club 6, Seal Team 6, whatever you might want to call it, and see what they can do.

[B]

Well, it's interesting because this is kind of echoing a lot of what we had at Olden Beeson last week, where I was at the informal European Council summit in the castle in the Belgian countryside. And the big topic of conversation that emerged was this idea of like, okay, well, we've got 27 members now, and some people want to move ahead with certain reforms, such as the Capital Markets Union, others don't. And so it will be sort of a coalition of the willing situation. The idea being that the people who want to move faster and be ambitious can move faster and be ambitious. Everyone else can watch and then maybe they'll join, maybe they won't. But really, Ursula von der Leyen said in her closing press conference, she said we should not be moving at the pace of the slowest, we should be moving further ahead. So it's similar to that idea, right, Nick? And it kind of makes sense. But the flip side of it is that it's tricky. Not everyone loves the idea of a supergroup deciding things before a meeting even starts. Right, yeah.

[C]

So all the usual caveats apply here, and the first one would be that. But if you actually want to do an EU reform using enhanced cooperation, which is the idea that von der Leyen put on the table in Auld Andesen, you actually need a minimum of nine countries. So six doesn't cut it off the bat. You need to get a few others on board to have EU legislation get.

[B]

On board the hot tug.

[C]

They said they were not too worried about getting a few extra people on board the hot tug Express. The other concern is exclusivity, is having this small group which obviously excludes others. And the fear there is. Well, you get together as this group of six big economies, you're going to pre cook the decisions before we get a chance to discuss them at 27. That's not the spirit of the EU.

[B]

All right, Nick, plenty more on this to come, I reckon. Let's get to our final topic. It's Brussels. And look, it's the first proper working day of a brand new Brussels regional government. Also my day of shame, Nick, because on this very podcast last week, I poo pooed the idea of a boucher breakthrough. And looky here, he's proved me right. Maybe he was listening to the podcast and he really felt like he needed to prove me wrong.

[C]

I think that's probably what happened. It was your words straight to the gods of Brussels ears.

[B]

Yeah, it took them 613 days. They've got a coalition deal. It's pretty interesting because they're going to face some pretty significant challenges. The main one being a budget deficit of over a billion euro. What else are they dealing with here in terms of. Tell us a little bit about this government.

[C]

Right, so a new name to remember is Boris Dillies. He was sworn in on Saturday as the minister President. He'd been mayor of Ugle, kind of tony neighborhood near where I live. And recently an MP in the parliament for the Brussels Capital region. He's a member of the reformist movement, the same party that former Prime Minister Charles Michel and Sophie Wilmes belong to. And his main task is going to be the budget. As you said, there's a deficit of over a billion euros. We know that the Brussels government has written to the European Commission asking them to help fund renovations of Schuman Roundabout. We'll see where all that goes. And now the coalition says it wants to balance the budget by 2029 by making savings, merging parts of the regional administration and potentially some new taxes, if you can believe that.

[B]

Is there room for more new taxes, Nick? That's what I'm wondering. All right, before we go, last week we asked you to send us some voice notes and messages about your loved ones or missed connections for Valentine's Day. And boy, did you deliver. We got some lovely messages and here's one of them from Amelia.

[D]

Good morning, Zoya. I wanted to share my somebody that I've been keeping my eye on ahead of Valentine's Day this weekend, and that is a very handsome intern at the Dutch Ministry for Foreign affairs who I've been spying going in and out of the ministry building every morning in a very stylish dark brown suit. And how lucky am I because this, this good looking intern happens to be my very own boyfriend. He is not a stranger, but means the most to me and is the only person I can think of for Valentine's Day.

[B]

Thanks so much, Amelia. That was lovely. And if you've got something to share with us, please send us a voice note or Write in our WhatsApp number is in the show notes. Finally, a quick birthday shout out to Portuguese Prime Minister Montenegro and to Thomas Tobay, the Swedish MEP and Vice Chair of the European People's Party Group.

[C]

Plus, it's Lithuania's Restoration of the State Day. Parliament President Roberta Muzzola will be in Vilnius to mark the occasion.

[B]

I hear it's going to be chilly when she delivers her speech and apparently it's going to be outside, so good luck, Roberta Rug up Cover up all right with that Brussels Playbook podcast is over for the day, but we're going to be back tomorrow. Nick, thank you for joining us.

[C]

Thanks for having me, Zoya.

[B]

Listeners, subscribe if you haven't already. Leave us a review. Five stars are the best number of stars. I'm Zora Shevdolovic. I'll be back with you tomorrow.

[A]

A message from Amazon. 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Sellers like Nivoma and Toulouse use Amazon to grow their food supplement brand into a global business. Learn more at aboutAmazon€.