Brussels Playbook Podcast — Episode Summary

Episode: Europe should back American strikes on Iran, says key Merz ally
Date: March 13, 2026
Host: Anne McElvoy (standing in for Sarah Wheaton on EU Confidential)
Guest: Norbert Röttgen (senior CDU politician, former Bundestag Foreign Affairs chair)
Length: ~37 minutes

1. Episode Overview

This special Friday edition of the Brussels Playbook Podcast dives into the repercussions in Europe of the ongoing US-Israeli campaign against Iran and the varied responses from European leaders, focusing in particular on the German perspective. Anne McElvoy’s in-depth interview with Norbert Röttgen—a prominent voice in Germany’s Christian Democrat (CDU) leadership—examines divisions within the EU, the dilemma of upholding international law, and questions about where European foreign policy and transatlantic ties will go next.

2. Key Discussion Points and Insights

A. The “Opportunity” and Risks Presented by the Iran Conflict

• Initial Optimism and Evolving Confidence
  • Röttgen reiterates his view that the war could bring “the opportunity that the Iranian people, 93 million people, are able to regain their freedom and their self determination, which is their right.” (03:03)
  • However, he notes the complexity: “Confident would be certainly a bit too much to say... I can't predict what is going to happen, of course, but this possibility is still there.” (02:52–03:24)
• Countering Pessimism
  • Roetgen is wary of commentators assuming the worst: “I’m contradicting heavily to these pessimism. I think this is not justified." (03:43)

B. Dilemmas of International Law and Justification for Intervention

• Disagreement within the German Government
  • Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbal (SPD) claims “this is not our war,” stressing legality. Röttgen contends this is only “half of the story”: "It’s not compliant with international law... it was decided by Israel and America." (04:52-05:30)
  • He frames the dilemma: “If the view were that America behaved wrongly by attacking and Israel as well, then... it would mean safety for the illegal regime in Tehran. And this dilemma has to be considered.” (06:08)
• Specific Context of Iran
  • He argues Iran is a "brutal dictatorship" that "undoubtedly constitutes a threat to international peace" through its nuclear program and destabilization of the region. (08:18–09:32)
  • The paralysis of the UN Security Council leaves limited options: "There is one institution that has the legitimacy and authority to order a foreign intervention and this is the United Nations Security Council. But given that this institution is paralyzed, it’s a fourth element that is very specific here." (09:47)

C. Changing Positions of European Leaders

• Friedrich Merz’s Stance
  • Merz offered initial support to the US/Israeli strikes but has distanced himself from calls for “endless war.”
  • Röttgen denies there’s any real change: “There is no shifting in his view at all... it’s quite banal to say nobody can be in favor of endless wars.” (11:43–12:21)
  • He criticizes regional fragmentation scenarios: “This is, for example, why I have publicly opposed to finance and fund Kurdish groups... this could lead to the fragmentation and internal war of the country, which is not our interest.” (12:57)
• European Solidarity (or Lack Thereof)
  • On whether Merz should have backed UK’s Keir Starmer after Trump’s Oval Office rebuke: “To have an argument between a European leader and the American president in... this Donald Trump show ... is certainly not advisable.” (14:07–15:24)
  • On Spain's criticism of Merz’s support: “I completely appreciate and support the way of behavior of Friedrich Merz in this room... his intention was to refrain from engaging very much in this show, in this Donald Trump show, and I would say rightly so.” (15:24)

D. Merkel’s Hypothetical Approach

• Röttgen speculates Merkel would have likewise chosen a “restrained way of behavior”, though McElvoy contends Merkel would have pushed harder for the international rules-based order. (16:06–16:56)
• He claims the current era demands flexibility: “We are in a very specific period of history where a new order is going to evolve and we have to take into consideration what that would mean.” (17:02)

E. Strains within the EU and Impact on the Transatlantic Alliance

• EU Voices Diverge
  • Von der Leyen signaled Europe must move beyond trying to defend a fading world order; Council President Costa defends the UN Charter and rules.
  • Röttgen: “If it were only not with one voice. There are very [many] voices that have become vocal in this area... we are not achieving more unity.” (23:22–24:25)
• Ukraine, Russia, and Strategic Complexity
  • Russia’s war complicates the EU response: “So they [Russia] are benefiting from that. This is one consequence that has to be brought into the calculation of contradicting consequences.” (25:46)
  • But he says the bigger strategic question is if Russia and China ultimately lose a major ally in Iran as a result.

F. Domestic Political Fallout in Germany

• Elections and Public Opinion
  • Röttgen claims the far-right AfD “is totally split on this issue” of America's Iran policy. (31:18)
  • He refutes that the Greens truly beat the CDU in recent Baden-Württemberg elections, emphasizing it was a score draw rather than a defeat. (32:21)
  • “You can lose elections with foreign policy, but you can't win federal elections... in normal times with foreign policy. ... What is essential... is the economy.” (34:07)

G. On the US Role and Future Prospects

• Did Trump Do Europe a Favor?
  • Röttgen: “It depends on the outcome. It depends on how this attack is now being organized. And if the United States stick[s] to a plausible definition of goals, they must not fall short before a crucial goal is achieved... this is part of the risk decision they have taken.” (35:35)

3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the peril of inaction:

  • “If the view were that America behaved wrongly by attacking... it would mean safety for the illegal regime in Tehran. And this dilemma has to be considered.”
    — Norbert Röttgen (06:08)

• On Merkel’s approach:

  • “Knowing her and having seen her as a refrained person in general, I would say I think it’s a clever way to behave under these circumstances.”
    — Norbert Röttgen (16:06)

• On global order:

  • “We are past the old post war order. We have not seen the establishment of a new order. ... I have not given up on the West and if we were to give up on the United States, we were to give up on the West.”
    — Norbert Röttgen (20:13)

• On the risk of EU disunity:

  • “The Middle East has always been, I would say, the weakest point of agreement on foreign policy within the European Union. ... The more we are, the stronger we are. This is absolutely clear.”
    — Norbert Röttgen (23:22–24:45)

• On communicating with voters:

  • “We have to confront our voters and citizens with the reality and with our leadership, how we want to have a positive grip ... on how things are going to evolve.”
    — Norbert Röttgen (31:18)

4. Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:18 | Röttgen opens with his perspective on Iran war aims | | 04:50 | German coalition debate: law, support, and consequences | | 08:18 | Case for Iran as international threat and justification for attack | | 11:03 | Debate over Merz’s stance—“endless wars” and goal clarity | | 14:07 | Trump’s treatment of Starmer vs. Merz in Oval Office discussion | | 16:06 | Hypothetical: What would Angela Merkel do? | | 20:13 | New world order and rationale for following the US | | 22:24 | EU divisions and responses; unity under strain | | 25:46 | Russia’s role; impact on Ukraine and European calculations | | 27:44 | Economic consequences and the need for better US communication of goals | | 31:18 | Domestic fallout—AfD, Greens, Baden-Württemberg results | | 34:07 | Elections: Foreign policy vs. economy in German politics | | 35:35 | Has the US “done Europe a favor”? Outcome-dependent assessment |

5. Tone and Style

• Conversational but rigorous: Direct, thoughtful, politically sophisticated debate with McElvoy pressing for specifics, and Röttgen balancing idealism with pragmatism.
• Reflective of current European anxieties: The conversation is marked by realism, a willingness to admit complexity and trade-offs, and frequent reference to democratic legitimacy as well as the legacy of past leaders.

6. Concluding Takeaways

• The podcast exposes deeply-felt divisions within Europe and even within Germany over the best response to American and Israeli military action in Iran.
• Röttgen stands as an articulate exponent of the Atlanticist case, urging European solidarity with the US in the absence of better alternatives for ensuring security and human rights, all while acknowledging the uncomfortable legal and economic repercussions.
• As the interview closes, Röttgen underscores: “It depends on how they continue now, what is achieved at the end. This is part of the risk decision they have taken. And now they and we together have to do it in the right way.” (35:35)
• The success—or failure—of the transatlantic alliance on the Iran crisis will have profound implications, not only for regional security but also for Europe’s internal coherence and its future role in global affairs.