Brussels Playbook Podcast: "Europe watches as Trump’s threats escalate"
Date: April 8, 2026
Hosts: Zoya Sheftalovich & Ian Wishart
Duration: ~15 minutes
Episode Overview
In this episode, Zoya Sheftalovich and Ian Wishart unpack Europe's tense and watchful response to incendiary threats from U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at Iran. The discussion explores the muted reaction from Brussels, the dynamics of transatlantic diplomacy, and internal EU hesitations. They also delve into the deepening ties between Hungary and Russia as Hungary's fiercely contested elections approach and highlight Australia’s push for tougher social media regulations for under-16s—hoping the EU will follow suit.
Main Topics and Key Discussion Points
1. Europe’s Response to Trump’s Escalating Threats against Iran
- Trump’s Provocative Message:
- Trump’s social media post warning “a whole civilization will die tonight” after the Strait of Hormuz remained closed draws global attention.
- C (Ian): “It was quite a jolt to see the US President do a social media post yesterday afternoon saying a whole civilization will die tonight…” [01:01]
- Trump’s social media post warning “a whole civilization will die tonight” after the Strait of Hormuz remained closed draws global attention.
- EU Leaders’ Muted Reactions:
- Brussels and European capitals react with extraordinary caution—offering “no comment” rather than risking Trump’s ire.
- B (Zoya): “The general kind of line that came out in those phone calls was no comment... If we start reacting to everything that Trump says that’s so bombastic, we would just be doing this every single day, and they're just watching and waiting.” [02:10]
- Brussels and European capitals react with extraordinary caution—offering “no comment” rather than risking Trump’s ire.
- Interpretation & Strategy:
- EU diplomats have absorbed the lesson: Take Trump “seriously but not literally.”
- B (Zoya): “I think everyone has sort of absorbed the idea ... you should take Donald Trump seriously but not literally. And so they're not taking him literally.” [02:10]
- EU diplomats have absorbed the lesson: Take Trump “seriously but not literally.”
- Historical Context & Caution:
- Leaders avoid becoming targets of Trump’s public criticism, recalling his reversal on relationships with leaders like Britain’s Starmer.
- C (Ian): “…no one wants to be at the bottom of a pylon with Trump kind of sicking his MAGA allies on you.” [03:41]
- Leaders avoid becoming targets of Trump’s public criticism, recalling his reversal on relationships with leaders like Britain’s Starmer.
Memorable Quote:
- B (Zoya): “We can't actually do anything, change anything, and we don't know if Trump is going to do anything. That’s the bottom line.” [03:53]
2. The Greenland Issue Returns
- Trump Revisits Greenland:
- Trump again complains about not acquiring Greenland, reflecting ongoing tension with NATO and European allies.
- C (Ian): “He brought Greenland back again. And saying, NATO's not there for me. I wanted Greenland and they wouldn't let me have it.” [04:18]
- Trump again complains about not acquiring Greenland, reflecting ongoing tension with NATO and European allies.
- EU Strategy:
- EU/NATO responses highlight a pattern: when allies meet some demands, Trump pivots or escalates.
3. NATO’s Challenges in the Trump Era
- Secretary General Mark Rutte’s Visit:
- Rutte, described as the “good cop,” attempts to charm Trump, but with limited options.
- B (Zoya): “What we’ve seen Rutte do in the past … is he comes in and he sort of says the things that Donald Trump wants to hear.” [05:42]
- No consensus among allies on how to handle Trump; fatigue is evident.
- C (Ian): “…even now there’s no real consensus among the allies about how to deal with Trump. They're kind of sick to death of him, but they don’t know what to do.” [06:08]
- Rutte, described as the “good cop,” attempts to charm Trump, but with limited options.
- Potential NATO Discussions on Iran:
- Some talk of elevating Iran as a topic at NATO’s July Ankara summit, but agreement is lacking.
- B (Zoya): “Victor … mentioned that maybe one of the things that might be discussed today is bringing Iran onto the table at this big NATO summit in Ankara in July.” [06:25]
- Some talk of elevating Iran as a topic at NATO’s July Ankara summit, but agreement is lacking.
4. Hungary’s Tightening Russian Ties Amid Elections
- Revealed Documents:
- POLITICO obtains a 12-point cooperation plan between Budapest and Moscow, laying bare deep annual engagement, even as Russia wages war on Ukraine.
- C (Ian): “There were things like Russian companies could join new energy projects with Hungary. There were closer links on oil, gas, nuclear, fuel, that type of thing.” [09:59]
- B (Zoya): “Even plans for, you know, more teaching of Russian languages in Hungary, more teacher exchanges, more student exchanges...Even cooperation on circus arts.” [10:07]
- POLITICO obtains a 12-point cooperation plan between Budapest and Moscow, laying bare deep annual engagement, even as Russia wages war on Ukraine.
- Election Framing:
- The election is seen as a crossroads: deeper alignment with the Kremlin (Orban), versus uncertain EU reengagement (Magyar).
- B (Zoya): “The campaign is one of which direction does Hungary want to go in? ...Orban … continues down that path [towards the Kremlin], and the other [Magyar] is giving signals … to come back towards that EU path.” [08:14]
- The election is seen as a crossroads: deeper alignment with the Kremlin (Orban), versus uncertain EU reengagement (Magyar).
- Opposition Leader Profile – Peter Magyar:
- Magyar is seen as Orban’s main rival, yet his views on migration and Ukraine are similar in some ways, causing Brussels to withhold hope of real change.
- C (Ian): “Even though he’s seen as the big competitor … those on his side talk about his abrasive style. His positions … are actually pretty aligned to Orban in the first place.” [11:05]
- B (Zoya): “No one is kind of hailing him as some great savior.” [12:10]
- Magyar is seen as Orban’s main rival, yet his views on migration and Ukraine are similar in some ways, causing Brussels to withhold hope of real change.
5. Australia’s Push for EU Social Media Regulation
-
Australia’s Regulation Attempt:
- Law bans those under 16 from signing up for social media—largely unworkable without Big Tech’s cooperation.
- B (Zoya): “It’s called a social media ban, but actually … if you’re under 16, you can’t sign up … Is it working? No.” [12:34–13:01]
- Law bans those under 16 from signing up for social media—largely unworkable without Big Tech’s cooperation.
-
Australia Calls for EU Action:
- Aussie government believes only “big, bad Brussels” can force platforms to take meaningful action.
- B (Zoya quoting envoy Angus Campbell): “Come on Brussels, let’s actually get our shit together and work.” [13:53]
- Aussie government believes only “big, bad Brussels” can force platforms to take meaningful action.
-
French Leadership:
- France is already taking steps to regulate social media for minors, potentially signaling wider EU movement.
- B (Zoya): “France is out in front on this one.” [14:09]
- France is already taking steps to regulate social media for minors, potentially signaling wider EU movement.
Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments
- On EU Reaction to Trump:
- B (Zoya): “If we start reacting to everything that Trump says that’s so bombastic, we would just be doing this every single day…” [02:18]
- On Hungary’s Russia Dossier:
- B (Zoya): “There’s even a section which really kind of caught my eye about circuses, about cooperation, on sort of the circus arts.” [10:15]
- On Peter Magyar:
- B (Zoya): “There isn't an expectation that he's going to be some magical savior that swans in like a Donald Tusk in Poland…” [11:53]
- Host Banter:
- C (Ian): “We don't like Swiss rolls because there’s too many bilateral agreements.” [15:02]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:26: [Start] Brussels is “watchful” as Trump threatens Iran
- 01:01: Trump's social media threat outlined
- 02:10: EU’s muted response, “take him seriously, not literally”
- 04:18: Trump revives Greenland grievances
- 05:19: NATO Secretary General Rutte’s visit to the U.S.
- 06:25: Uncertainty about NATO’s Iran agenda for the Ankara summit
- 07:31: Hungary’s election campaign and new Russia ties revealed
- 09:59: Details of Hungary-Russia cooperation plan
- 11:05: Profile of opposition candidate Peter Magyar
- 12:30: Australia’s under-16s social media “ban” discussed
- 13:53: Australia pushes EU to “get our shit together” on Big Tech regulation
- 14:09: France’s early moves on social media regulation for minors
- 15:02: Lighthearted EU cakes discussion
Tone and Style
- The episode is conversational, grounded in reporting, and marked by dry wit and banter—even when discussing sobering topics.
- Hosts maintain clarity and accessibility, peppering in relatable commentary on EU politics and dynamics.
Summary Takeaway
This episode delivers a concise yet penetrating look at Europe’s caution and anxiety in the face of Donald Trump’s latest confrontational stance toward Iran, underscoring the continent’s strategy of watchful silence and strategic ambiguity. The discussion weaves in Hungary’s deepening ties with Russia under Viktor Orban amid a contentious election and explores the global ripple effects of Australia’s attempts to curb social media access for children—urging Brussels to take the regulatory lead.
Listeners are left with a sharper understanding of how complex, interconnected, and sometimes paralyzed European diplomacy can be—especially under extraordinary external pressure.