Europe's balancing act on Iran

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast: Europe’s Balancing Act on Iran

Date: March 2, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Nick Winicore (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, POLITICO)

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Episode Overview

This episode examines the dramatic fallout in Europe after the US and Israel jointly bombed Iran—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and how Brussels and the wider EU are responding to an unprecedented crisis in the Middle East. Zoya and Nick delve into the divisions and dilemmas among European states, the rapid diplomatic reactions, implications for EU geopolitics, and the current debate about foreign residents’ voting rights in Belgium. The episode also spotlights President Macron’s looming speech on France’s nuclear deterrent amid rising doubts about US security guarantees.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Brussels Responds to Regime Change in Iran

(00:19–07:38)

• Immediate EU Reactions:
  • Zoya sets the scene: “Brussels has woken up to a pretty different Middle East this morning after the US and Israeli strikes over the weekend. And we're looking at really regime change in Tehran. Right. Because Khamenei is gone. And now what's going to come next?” (01:16)
  • Nick notes initial EU hesitancy: “We had an initial phase that I might compare to the kind of Venezuela phase where leaders were being very cautious, treating this at arm's length. And then the reactions have evolved with the reports of Khamenei being killed to something a little bit more assertive.” (01:36)
• Transatlantic Divide:
  • Nick highlights US criticism: “We had some searing criticism from people like Lindsey Graham over the weekend, calling Europeans pathet soft and saying, you're very passionate about Ukraine, but when it comes to Iran, you're very passive.” (02:18)
• EU Division on Strikes:
  • Not all EU countries are on the same page: “Spain, for example, saying, we reject this unilateral action. And other countries, France, Germany, the UK actually sort of being tacitly supportive. And that has moved into more tacit support on Sunday with leaders saying, well, actually, Khamenei no longer being in power is something that kind of aligns with our interests as Europeans.” (02:33)
• Who Was Informed by the US?
  • Zoya: “We saw Poland come out and say, oh, yeah, we did know something was coming. Germany said they got a briefing. France not.” (03:07)
  • Nick: “...the fact that an ally such as France, a nuclear power, NATO ally, wouldn't have been given a really clear briefing that this is to come—it really shows you just how far apart certainly US and Paris have drifted.” (03:33)

2. EU Crisis Mode and Institutional Response

(03:51–05:49)

• EU’s Crisis Reflexes:
  • Emergency meetings: “Calling a co repper meeting on Sunday, calling an emergency Foreign Affairs Council on Sunday as well. This is kind of becoming a reflex or almost second nature for the EU.” (04:04)
  • Security College: Ursula von der Leyen convenes “her security colle … a new format, the College of Commissioners getting together a few days before they usually do... to talk about a security crisis.” (04:26)
• Debate on Commission’s Role:
  • Zoya: “It's just that this sort of crisis doesn't lend itself to the European Commission. It's really more of like a Foreign Affairs, European Council situation.” (04:58)
  • Nick points to critics: “...some people are actually quite unhappy that Ursula von der Leyen is doing anything at all and say, actually, foreign policy, security, that's the domain of the national capitals. European Commission should stay out of it completely.” (05:28)

3. Proximity of Crisis—Cyprus and EU Security

(05:49–07:03)

• Iran’s Retaliation Brings Crisis to EU’s Doorstep:
  • Zoya: “Cyprus became part of the story as well, because we had this statement that came out of the UK indicating that perhaps Iran had targeted Cyprus in its retaliatory strikes. Cyprus then had to come out and say … Yes, there might have been rockets that were fired in our direction, but they were not targeting Cyprus.” (05:49)
  • The General Affairs Council meeting is still on, with all EU ministers arriving in Nicosia. “It does kind of bring home how close this crisis is… because Cyprus is so close to this region.” (06:28)
• Nick: “Absolutely. It does take this conflict, which feels far away and puts it sort of in the EU sphere.” (06:46)

4. The Iran-Russia Alliance and Ukraine War

(07:03–08:28)

• Strategic Implications:
  • Zoya: “We know that Iran and Russia were allies... Iran was supplying Russia with a lot of weaponry, particularly the shahed drones. Although lately Russia has been manufacturing shaheds on its own shores in Tatastan.” (07:03)
  • Nick: “This is a big ally of Russia, Vladimir Putin's Russia, that is being weakened, no matter how you look at it, in a way, perhaps even taken out of contention as a sort of geopolitical player. … Effectively the strikes will align with European interests.” (07:38)

5. Macron’s Nuclear Speech & Europe’s Defense Future

(08:28–12:18)

• France’s Nuclear Assurance:
  • Zoya: “Macron … is going to deliver a major speech on how France’s nuclear deterrent might protect the rest of Europe. … This one feels a bit different, though.” (08:28)
  • Nick places it in context: “The war in Ukraine, doubts about whether Trump would come to the aid of a European country under attack and whether its nuclear umbrella still holds.” (08:48)
  • France’s significance: “France is the only nuclear power in the EU after Brexit. It's got a capacity of about 300 warheads.” (08:59)
• Other Capitals’ Expectations:
  • Nick: “Macron could invite EU countries to participate in French nuclear drills ... stationing of nuclear capable French fighters … could be language tying France's vital interest to Europe. ...” (09:52)
• Red Lines and Political Realities:
  • Zoya: “But there's Always going to be the red line, which is that at the end of the day, who pushes a button, it's France. It is not going to be up to the Baltics or to whoever might be in the firing line to actually make that decision.” (10:25)
  • Nick: “Germany says it doesn't want to pay for an arsenal that it doesn't control. … If others benefit from the nuclear umbrella, will they contribute financially? Well, if they don't control how they're used, then. Then maybe they won't want to.” (10:42)
• French Politics—Uncertainty Beyond Macron:
  • Zoya: “Macron, he's got like 14 months left in office. ... If he's making promises today, who's to say that the National Rally, if they do get into power in 2027, are going to carry them out?” (11:03)
  • Nick: “Marine Le Pen has really sort of chosen this issue and said, nuclear power belongs to the French. It's a national prerogative. ... Jordan Bardella … says defense of French interest doesn't stop at borders. ...” (11:26)

6. EU Citizens and Voting Rights in Brussels

(12:18–14:14)

• Lack of Voting Rights:
  • Zoya highlights the issue: “Even Europeans living in Brussels, they don't get to vote in all the elections here either.” (12:18)
  • Nick explains: “If you're an EU citizen and you live in Belgium, you're allowed to vote in European Parliament elections and in local municipal elections, but you may not vote in Belgium's federal elections ... or in Brussels, regional elections.” (12:29)
• Introducing a Debate:
  • Zoya: “Flemish Socialist Party, Verruet … says that this rule is outdated, and EU citizens, if they live in Brussels, ought to be able to choose who represents them. ... this is like, a pretty big part of the Brussels electorate.” (12:50)
  • Nick: “There are around 250,000 EU citizens living in Brussels. Many work in institutions or in media, but they have no vote in the Brussels regional parliament.” (13:04)
• Humor and Aspirations:
  • Nick jokes: “If I get the vote. Go on—free water in restaurants, number one campaign issue, and get all the votes.” (13:09)
  • Zoya: “I am with you, Nick. I love it. ... everyone needs to be drinking water between drinks.” (13:23)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Everyone and their mom has come out with a statement about this, and they've come out with several statements.”
  — Nick Winicore on the flood of EU statements after Khamenei’s killing (02:04)

• “The fact that an ally such as France, a nuclear power, NATO ally, wouldn't have been given a really clear briefing that this is to come—it really shows you just how far apart certainly US and Paris have drifted.”
  — Nick Winicore (03:33)

• “If others benefit from the nuclear umbrella, will they contribute financially? Well, if they don't control how they're used, then. Then maybe they won't want to.”
  — Nick Winicore (10:42)

• “I know what issue I would put on the table. If I get the vote. Go on—free water in restaurants, number one campaign issue, and get all the votes.”
  — Nick Winicore, on expat concerns in Brussels (13:09)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:19 – Episode start, overview of the day’s crisis in Brussels
• 01:16 – How EU leaders first reacted to Iran strikes
• 02:18 – The US slams European “passivity” on Iran
• 03:07 – Which EU states received advance notice from the US
• 04:04 – EU emergency meetings: institutional responses
• 05:49 – Cyprus caught in Iran’s retaliation, and its significance for EU security
• 07:03 – How Iran’s turmoil might affect Russia’s war in Ukraine
• 08:28 – Macron’s nuclear speech and European defense post-Brexit
• 10:25 – The limits of France’s nuclear guarantee for Europe
• 11:03 – French presidential politics and the future of nuclear doctrine
• 12:18 – Debate about EU citizens’ right to vote in Brussels
• 13:09 – Expat campaign: “free water in restaurants”

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Tone and Style

The episode maintains a clear, conversational style mixing serious analysis with moments of levity—especially around the Brussels voting debate and Nick’s mock campaign slogans. The hosts take care to provide political context, convey the intricacies of EU internal debate, and inject personal perspective—especially as expats themselves—on the issues discussed.

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Transcript

[Amazon Sponsor]

Today's episode is Presented by Amazon. 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Learn more at aboutamazon.eu Good morning.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

It's Monday, March 2nd, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is tense as European capitals race to piece together a unified response after the US And Israel bombarded Iran and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the weekend. Also on the pod today, Emmanuel Macron is unveiling his vision for Europe's nuclear future. And there's a call for EU citizens to get more of a say in Belgian regional politics. I'm on board for that one. I'm Zora Shevdolovic, POLITICO's chief EU correspondent, and with me today is our chief foreign affairs correspondent, Nick Winicore. Hey, Nick. Pretty apt guest today.

[Nick Winicore]

It's my time to shine, right?

[Zora Shevdolovic]

It sure is. Did you get a break at all this weekend? Because you wrote an emergency playbook on Sunday. You've been helming playbook for Monday. What's going on?

[Nick Winicore]

If there was one, I missed it, but this is what we live for.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Nice PA it really is. All right, well, Nick, let's start with Iran. Brussels has woken up to a pretty different Middle east this morning after the US And Israeli strikes over the weekend. And we're looking at really regime change in Tehran. Right. Because Khomeini is gone. And now what's going to come next?

[Nick Winicore]

Yeah, so it's been really interesting seeing how the reactions have evolved very quickly. We had an initial phase that I might compare to the kind of Venezuela phase where leaders were being very cautious, treating this at arm's length. And then the reactions have evolved with the reports of Kamene being killed to something a little bit more assertive.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

And this is EU leaders. Right, Nick? Like, we're talking about Ursula von der Leyen, we're talking about Franklin, French president.

[Nick Winicore]

Everyone and their mom has come out with a statement about this, and they've come out with several statements. The statements when the bombing started and obviously after Khamenei was killed and in light of Iran's retaliation, you know, targeting sites in. In the region. But I think the really interesting thing is to see one, the huge sort of transatlantic gulf that clearly opened with these strikes. We had some searing criticism from people like Lindsey Graham over the weekend, calling Europeans pathet soft and saying, you're very passionate about Ukraine, but when it comes to Iran, you're very passive. And also some of the divisions among the Europeans, with Spain, for example, saying, we reject this unilateral action. And other countries, France, Germany, the UK actually sort of being tacitly supportive. And that has moved into more tacit support on Sunday with leaders saying, well, actually, Khomeini no longer being in power is something that kind of aligns with our interests as Europeans. But the debate is ongoing.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah. What was interesting to me, Nick, over the weekend is to get a sense of who might have been given a heads up and who wasn't. So we saw Poland come out and say, oh, yeah, we did know something was coming. Germany said they got a briefing. France not.

[Nick Winicore]

It's a really crucial point. And let's not forget that 35 years ago, European countries joined in this type of operation alongside the United States in Operation Desert Storm. We are worlds away from that. We're talking about who got a heads up for something of this geopolitical magnitude. And the fact that an ally such as France, a nuclear power, NATO ally, wouldn't have been given a really clear briefing that this is to come. It really shows you just how far apart certainly US and Paris have. Have drifted.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah. It is very astonishing, really, where we're at at this point, institutionally, what did we get from the European Commission? What did we get from the European Council? Because we know over the weekend there was a flurry of diplomacy.

[Nick Winicore]

Yeah. So I think this is sort of the positive, in a way, for the eu. I mean, we've had such geopolitical r Over the past few months, the EU has gotten better at sort of going into crisis mode. So calling a co repper meeting on Sunday, calling an emergency Foreign Affairs Council on Sunday as well. This is kind of becoming a reflex or almost second nature for the eu. It happened during the trade crisis. It's also happening here now. That's one thing. Another thing is to say, what are they achieving at these meetings? And then, of course, we've got European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing that she's holding her security colle. This is a new format, the College of Commissioners getting together a few days before they usually do on Wednesday to talk about a security crisis. And there was a lot of comment online about waiting until Monday to hold this. This meeting. I don't know if you caught any of that, Zoya.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah, it was quite spicy. There are some people throwing some shade, Ursula von der Leyen's way. But look, I think what it demonstrates, you know, we did have a flurry of activity over the weekend. It's not like The EU was doing nothing and sitting on its hands. It's just that this sort of crisis doesn't lend itself to the European Commission. It's really more of like a Foreign Affairs, European Council situation. So I think that is the argument. On the flip side, it's like, well, okay, what is the Commission going to do? Where is its competence in this kind of area?

[Nick Winicore]

Right, yeah. So obviously the shade was about Europeans and their sacred weekends not getting together. But as you point out, there was a lot of activity and some people are actually quite unhappy that Ursula of underlying is doing anything at all and say, actually, foreign policy, security, that's the domain of the national capitals. European Commission should stay out of it completely.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah, that's right, Nick. It's super interesting. I think we'll see what comes out of this college today, if anything. Of course, you know, Cyprus became part of the story as well, because we had this statement that came out of the UK indicating that perhaps Iran had targeted Cyprus in its retaliatory strikes. Cyprus then had to come out and say, ho, ho, hold on a second one was targeting us. Yes, there might have been rockets that were fired in our direction, but they were not targeting Cyprus. They were actually shot down very early on. And this was not a Cyprus issue. But it's kind of interesting because the General Affairs Council, that's all of the EU ministers, European affairs ministers from around the block, they're going to be in Nicosia on Tuesday. They're all arriving today, this afternoon. And I'm going to be also arriving this afternoon for the General Affairs Council. And it does kind of bring home how close this crisis is to the. Because Cyprus is so close to this region.

[Nick Winicore]

Absolutely. It does take this conflict, which feels far away and puts it sort of in the EU sphere. And, you know, we were checking in. Is this meeting in Nicosia, is it going to go ahead? So far it is. But if there are other, other threats, other alerts, anything can happen.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah, hopefully my Aegean flight takes off as scheduled this afternoon. Nick or I might be in trouble. And Nick, you know what? What's kind of interesting to me is how this might impact the other war that we know is on Europe's doorstep, and that is the war in Ukraine. Because we know that Iran and Russia were allies. We know that Iran was supplying Russia with a lot of weaponry, particularly the shahed drones. Although lately Russia has been manufacturing shaheds on its own shores in Tatastan. So what do you think the impact of that is going to be on the ground in Ukraine?

[Nick Winicore]

I think this is one way in which the Iran crisis really intersects with Europe's kind of core interests. This is a big ally of Russia, Vladimir Putin's Russia, that is being weakened, no matter how you look at it, in a way, perhaps even taken out of contention as a sort of geopolitical player. And you said the shahed production had moved into Russia, but of course, Iran continues to support the Russian war effort. So that's one where effectively the strikes will align with European interests. And I think generally it's to take Vladimir Putin down a peg because one of his supporters, one of his allies, has been taken out. Obviously, for other autocrats who like to be in secure locations and in bunkers. This is sort of a worrying precedent here.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

All right, Nicole, let's move to our second story today. Emmanuel Macron, he is traveling to a submarine base in northwestern France today and he's going to deliver a major speech on how France's nuclear deterrent might protect the rest of Europe. Nick, every French president gives a nuclear speech per term. This one feels a bit different, though.

[Nick Winicore]

Absolutely. I mean, the whole context has shifted. The war in Ukraine, doubts about whether Trump would come to the aid of a European country under attack and whether its nuclear umbrella still holds. And European capitals are sort of reassessing their deterrence. And France is the only nuclear power in the EU after Brexit. It's got a capacity of about 300 warheads. And now you have Berlin, Warsaw, Stockholm openly discussing options of potentially coming under the French nuclear umbrella.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah, that's right, Nick, because really, for decades, Europe has been relying on the US And France was also there and the UK was also there, but they were not the countries that Poland or Estonia or Lithuania were looking to to secure their long term future. They were looking to the US now, with Donald Trump being seen as increasingly unreliable and unpredictable, everyone is looking to the EAS grown nuclear power, France. So what do you think the European capitals are expecting from Macron or what are they hoping for, at least from today's speech?

[Nick Winicore]

I think they're looking for some concrete steps. Macron could invite EU countries to participate in French nuclear drills. There could be stationing of nuclear capable French fighters, Rafale jets in other European countries. There could be language tying France's vital interest to Europe. That's the nuclear doctrine sort of of encodes how you use these weapons could be spread out to Europe and some of these missiles could be deployed outside of France. Those are the clues our nuclear watchers will be will be looking for today.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah, but there's Always going to be the red line, which is that at the end of the day, who pushes a button, it's France. It is not going to be up to the Baltics or to whoever might be in the firing line to actually make that decision. There isn't going to be any sort of joint decision making. Right?

[Nick Winicore]

That's exactly right. And that is kind of a major point of France's nuclear doctrine. And this immediately creates an issue. Germany says it doesn't want to pay for an arsenal that it doesn't control. And there's also the expectation, well, if others benefit from the nuclear umbrella, will they contribute financially? Well, if they don't control how they're used, then. Then maybe they won't want to.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

On to the bigger issue, which is that the thing is, Macron, he's got like 14 months left in office. There's going to be a 2027 presidential election, and the polling shows far right national rally is in the lead, so they could actually win. And if he's making promises today, who's to say that the National Rally, if they do get into power in 2027, are going to carry them out?

[Nick Winicore]

And this is real fascinating kind of national versus European sovereignty issue. Nothing could be more crucial than nuclear deterrence. And I find it really interesting to look at the statements, and Marine Le Pen has really sort of chosen this issue and said, nuclear power belongs to the French. It's a national prerogative. And then you have Jordan Bardella, who's potentially the candidate for the national rally in the next presidential election, is taking a softer tone. He says defense of French interest doesn't stop at borders. He's not endorsing a European nuclear umbrella, but he may be opening the door just to crack. And the big question really is, does Macron have the political capital to lock in something that might be so difficult reverse for his successor?

[Zora Shevdolovic]

All right, Nick, finally, let's get to a very Brussels debate. I'm an Aussie. I definitely don't get to vote here, sadly, yet. But even Europeans living in Brussels, they don't get to vote in all the elections here either.

[Nick Winicore]

No, it's a pretty tricky, complicated situation. If you're an EU citizen and you live in Belgium, you're allowed to vote in European Parliament elections and in local municipal elections, but you may not vote in Belgium's federal elections, which is where they elect the national government, or in Brussels, regional elections. So that's what's being debated here.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Yeah, because there's this Flemish Socialist Party, Verruet, which says that this rule is outdated, and EU citizens, if they live in Brussels, ought to be able to choose who represents them. Right. And this is, like, a pretty big part of the Brussels electorate.

[Nick Winicore]

Absolutely. There are around 250,000 EU citizens living in Brussels. Many work in institutions or in media, but they have no vote in the Brussels regional parliament. I know what issue I would put on the table. If I get the vote. Go on free water in restaurants, number one campaign issue, and get all the votes.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

I am with you, Nick. I love it. As an Australian in Brussels, it is shocking to me that this is not automatic. And let me tell you, when you're drinking out on the town in a bar, everyone needs to be drinking water between drinks. So I am with you. Oh, my God. Could you run?

[Nick Winicore]

I think this is gonna be a winner. We're a single issue. It's the water party, and we get all the expat votes.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Well, I'm looking forward to it. But listen, the argument here is that the current setup is not reflective of the fact that you've got a huge number of EU citizens who live in Brussels, but they don't get to have a say. They don't get to say, hey, Brussels regional government, maybe 600 days is too many days to be forming this. And maybe I want to, like, cast my ballot in the next election that reflects that, or maybe I want to make sure that water is free. So there's all sorts of stuff like that that we don't get a say in and we'll never get a say in as long as this rule exists.

[Nick Winicore]

Yeah. All right.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

Well, Nick, I'm looking forward to the day when we get to cast our ballot. That's about it from us, folks. But before we go, last week we asked you to tell us where and when you listened to this program, and, boy, did you deliver. Firstly, Marius from Brussels. He says he tunes in while making a smoothie before heading out for a run, which, frankly, is setting the bar uncomfortably high for the rest of us who enjoy no running. Henry tells us he listens on his commute or while making coffee from home, which feels pretty real. Now this. Please don't cut this. Dionis Giannis is our producer. Folks, you're getting a little peek behind the scenes. I was talking to someone last week, and he told me that he listens during his morning alone time in the bathroom.

[Nick Winicore]

Too much information.

[Zora Shevdolovic]

I'm all about keeping it real. While we're on this topic, please do rate us, review us. Subscribe to our podcast. Leave us a comment that's how people find out about us and helps us get listeners, which helps keep this thing running. And that's it for today. Thanks so much, Nick. We'll be back with you with the Brussels Playbook podcast on Tuesday.

[Nick Winicore]

Bye. Thanks, Hoyet.

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