Brussels Playbook Podcast: Europe’s Balancing Act on Iran

Date: March 2, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Nick Winicore (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, POLITICO)

Episode Overview

This episode examines the dramatic fallout in Europe after the US and Israel jointly bombed Iran—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and how Brussels and the wider EU are responding to an unprecedented crisis in the Middle East. Zoya and Nick delve into the divisions and dilemmas among European states, the rapid diplomatic reactions, implications for EU geopolitics, and the current debate about foreign residents’ voting rights in Belgium. The episode also spotlights President Macron’s looming speech on France’s nuclear deterrent amid rising doubts about US security guarantees.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Brussels Responds to Regime Change in Iran

(00:19–07:38)

• Immediate EU Reactions:
  • Zoya sets the scene: “Brussels has woken up to a pretty different Middle East this morning after the US and Israeli strikes over the weekend. And we're looking at really regime change in Tehran. Right. Because Khamenei is gone. And now what's going to come next?” (01:16)
  • Nick notes initial EU hesitancy: “We had an initial phase that I might compare to the kind of Venezuela phase where leaders were being very cautious, treating this at arm's length. And then the reactions have evolved with the reports of Khamenei being killed to something a little bit more assertive.” (01:36)
• Transatlantic Divide:
  • Nick highlights US criticism: “We had some searing criticism from people like Lindsey Graham over the weekend, calling Europeans pathet soft and saying, you're very passionate about Ukraine, but when it comes to Iran, you're very passive.” (02:18)
• EU Division on Strikes:
  • Not all EU countries are on the same page: “Spain, for example, saying, we reject this unilateral action. And other countries, France, Germany, the UK actually sort of being tacitly supportive. And that has moved into more tacit support on Sunday with leaders saying, well, actually, Khamenei no longer being in power is something that kind of aligns with our interests as Europeans.” (02:33)
• Who Was Informed by the US?
  • Zoya: “We saw Poland come out and say, oh, yeah, we did know something was coming. Germany said they got a briefing. France not.” (03:07)
  • Nick: “...the fact that an ally such as France, a nuclear power, NATO ally, wouldn't have been given a really clear briefing that this is to come—it really shows you just how far apart certainly US and Paris have drifted.” (03:33)

2. EU Crisis Mode and Institutional Response

(03:51–05:49)

• EU’s Crisis Reflexes:
  • Emergency meetings: “Calling a co repper meeting on Sunday, calling an emergency Foreign Affairs Council on Sunday as well. This is kind of becoming a reflex or almost second nature for the EU.” (04:04)
  • Security College: Ursula von der Leyen convenes “her security colle … a new format, the College of Commissioners getting together a few days before they usually do... to talk about a security crisis.” (04:26)
• Debate on Commission’s Role:
  • Zoya: “It's just that this sort of crisis doesn't lend itself to the European Commission. It's really more of like a Foreign Affairs, European Council situation.” (04:58)
  • Nick points to critics: “...some people are actually quite unhappy that Ursula von der Leyen is doing anything at all and say, actually, foreign policy, security, that's the domain of the national capitals. European Commission should stay out of it completely.” (05:28)

3. Proximity of Crisis—Cyprus and EU Security

(05:49–07:03)

• Iran’s Retaliation Brings Crisis to EU’s Doorstep:
  • Zoya: “Cyprus became part of the story as well, because we had this statement that came out of the UK indicating that perhaps Iran had targeted Cyprus in its retaliatory strikes. Cyprus then had to come out and say … Yes, there might have been rockets that were fired in our direction, but they were not targeting Cyprus.” (05:49)
  • The General Affairs Council meeting is still on, with all EU ministers arriving in Nicosia. “It does kind of bring home how close this crisis is… because Cyprus is so close to this region.” (06:28)
• Nick: “Absolutely. It does take this conflict, which feels far away and puts it sort of in the EU sphere.” (06:46)

4. The Iran-Russia Alliance and Ukraine War

(07:03–08:28)

• Strategic Implications:
  • Zoya: “We know that Iran and Russia were allies... Iran was supplying Russia with a lot of weaponry, particularly the shahed drones. Although lately Russia has been manufacturing shaheds on its own shores in Tatastan.” (07:03)
  • Nick: “This is a big ally of Russia, Vladimir Putin's Russia, that is being weakened, no matter how you look at it, in a way, perhaps even taken out of contention as a sort of geopolitical player. … Effectively the strikes will align with European interests.” (07:38)

5. Macron’s Nuclear Speech & Europe’s Defense Future

(08:28–12:18)

• France’s Nuclear Assurance:
  • Zoya: “Macron … is going to deliver a major speech on how France’s nuclear deterrent might protect the rest of Europe. … This one feels a bit different, though.” (08:28)
  • Nick places it in context: “The war in Ukraine, doubts about whether Trump would come to the aid of a European country under attack and whether its nuclear umbrella still holds.” (08:48)
  • France’s significance: “France is the only nuclear power in the EU after Brexit. It's got a capacity of about 300 warheads.” (08:59)
• Other Capitals’ Expectations:
  • Nick: “Macron could invite EU countries to participate in French nuclear drills ... stationing of nuclear capable French fighters … could be language tying France's vital interest to Europe. ...” (09:52)
• Red Lines and Political Realities:
  • Zoya: “But there's Always going to be the red line, which is that at the end of the day, who pushes a button, it's France. It is not going to be up to the Baltics or to whoever might be in the firing line to actually make that decision.” (10:25)
  • Nick: “Germany says it doesn't want to pay for an arsenal that it doesn't control. … If others benefit from the nuclear umbrella, will they contribute financially? Well, if they don't control how they're used, then. Then maybe they won't want to.” (10:42)
• French Politics—Uncertainty Beyond Macron:
  • Zoya: “Macron, he's got like 14 months left in office. ... If he's making promises today, who's to say that the National Rally, if they do get into power in 2027, are going to carry them out?” (11:03)
  • Nick: “Marine Le Pen has really sort of chosen this issue and said, nuclear power belongs to the French. It's a national prerogative. ... Jordan Bardella … says defense of French interest doesn't stop at borders. ...” (11:26)

6. EU Citizens and Voting Rights in Brussels

(12:18–14:14)

• Lack of Voting Rights:
  • Zoya highlights the issue: “Even Europeans living in Brussels, they don't get to vote in all the elections here either.” (12:18)
  • Nick explains: “If you're an EU citizen and you live in Belgium, you're allowed to vote in European Parliament elections and in local municipal elections, but you may not vote in Belgium's federal elections ... or in Brussels, regional elections.” (12:29)
• Introducing a Debate:
  • Zoya: “Flemish Socialist Party, Verruet … says that this rule is outdated, and EU citizens, if they live in Brussels, ought to be able to choose who represents them. ... this is like, a pretty big part of the Brussels electorate.” (12:50)
  • Nick: “There are around 250,000 EU citizens living in Brussels. Many work in institutions or in media, but they have no vote in the Brussels regional parliament.” (13:04)
• Humor and Aspirations:
  • Nick jokes: “If I get the vote. Go on—free water in restaurants, number one campaign issue, and get all the votes.” (13:09)
  • Zoya: “I am with you, Nick. I love it. ... everyone needs to be drinking water between drinks.” (13:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Everyone and their mom has come out with a statement about this, and they've come out with several statements.”
  — Nick Winicore on the flood of EU statements after Khamenei’s killing (02:04)

• “The fact that an ally such as France, a nuclear power, NATO ally, wouldn't have been given a really clear briefing that this is to come—it really shows you just how far apart certainly US and Paris have drifted.”
  — Nick Winicore (03:33)

• “If others benefit from the nuclear umbrella, will they contribute financially? Well, if they don't control how they're used, then. Then maybe they won't want to.”
  — Nick Winicore (10:42)

• “I know what issue I would put on the table. If I get the vote. Go on—free water in restaurants, number one campaign issue, and get all the votes.”
  — Nick Winicore, on expat concerns in Brussels (13:09)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:19 – Episode start, overview of the day’s crisis in Brussels
• 01:16 – How EU leaders first reacted to Iran strikes
• 02:18 – The US slams European “passivity” on Iran
• 03:07 – Which EU states received advance notice from the US
• 04:04 – EU emergency meetings: institutional responses
• 05:49 – Cyprus caught in Iran’s retaliation, and its significance for EU security
• 07:03 – How Iran’s turmoil might affect Russia’s war in Ukraine
• 08:28 – Macron’s nuclear speech and European defense post-Brexit
• 10:25 – The limits of France’s nuclear guarantee for Europe
• 11:03 – French presidential politics and the future of nuclear doctrine
• 12:18 – Debate about EU citizens’ right to vote in Brussels
• 13:09 – Expat campaign: “free water in restaurants”

Tone and Style

The episode maintains a clear, conversational style mixing serious analysis with moments of levity—especially around the Brussels voting debate and Nick’s mock campaign slogans. The hosts take care to provide political context, convey the intricacies of EU internal debate, and inject personal perspective—especially as expats themselves—on the issues discussed.