Europe’s toughest migration plan yet

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast: Europe’s Toughest Migration Plan Yet

Date: June 1, 2026
Host: Zora Sheftalovich (POLITICO's chief EU correspondent)
Guest: Nick Finnicker

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into three major topics shaping Brussels:

1. High-stakes negotiations over the EU's toughest migration return plan yet.
2. Anxiety in Brussels over France’s looming presidential election and the potential far-right vs. far-left runoff.
3. Debate around the EU's ambition to manufacture its own AI microchips—and whether it’s a tech sovereignty pipe dream.

The episode stays true to the Brussels Playbook’s conversational, reporter-driven style, providing crisp insider context on decisions and debates moving the EU.

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1. Migration: The EU's Contentious Return Plan

[00:40 – 06:59]

Key Discussion Points

• Critical Negotiations:
  EU Parliament, Council, and Commission negotiators meet for pivotal talks to finalize new rules on migrant returns—the most controversial part of the wider migration and asylum pact set to roll out next month.

  “This is where the rubber hits the road… It’s deciding the terms for migrants who’ve been denied asylum in the EU. And this is a source of major political pressure.” — Nick Finnicker [02:00]

• Political Drivers:
  As elections loom across Europe, Brussels is desperate to demonstrate action on migration, seeking to reclaim ground lost to far-right parties.

  “Brussels’ attempt to claw back some of the ground that has been lost to the far right in various elections over the past few years.” — Zora Sheftalovich [02:17]

• Return Hubs / Detention Centers:
  Central idea: create “return hubs” in third countries (e.g., Albania) to hold failed asylum seekers. The theory is that being held outside the EU will encourage people to leave voluntarily, as opposed to staying within EU freedom-of-movement zones.

  “Some people call them detention centers, some people call them return hubs… places where you can send migrants in third countries, for instance, Albania, as we’ve seen Italy do.” — Zora Sheftalovich [03:31]

• Legal and Ethical Dilemmas:

  • Only about 20–25% of rejected asylum seekers actually leave the EU; the remainder often stay illegally due to lack of cooperation from origin countries.
  • Many countries refuse to accept returns. The legal status and rights of people in these hubs is uncertain, potentially creating “legal black holes.”

  “NGOs warn that they can become legal black holes... It’s sort of a little bit mysterious what exactly will happen to them and whether this is compatible with international law.” — Nick Finnicker [05:19]

• Incentives and Diplomacy:
  The EU is now in talks with eight to ten countries (e.g. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) to establish these hubs, offering incentives like investment, visa liberalization, or job programs in exchange.

  “A quid pro quo: take economic migrants who’ve been denied visas, and in exchange, get skilled worker visas for your country.” — Nick Finnicker [05:19]

• Immediate Impact:
  Some member states (notably France and Germany) are pushing for the rules to be enforced immediately, given the mechanism is a regulation, not a directive.

  • Innovations include requiring migrants to regularly check in, extended criminal sentences, and more rapid implementation timelines.

  “Migrant criminal sentences have been extended from 18 to 24 months and potentially beyond for any serious crime done in the EU... takes effect immediately after a deal is done.” — Nick Finnicker [06:18]

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2. France’s Nightmare Election Scenario

[08:03 – 11:46]

Key Discussion Points

• Election Jitters:
  Fresh polling suggests France’s 2027 presidential runoff could pit far-right leader Jordan Bardella against far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon—a scenario Brussels dreads.

  “Polling...is sending a chill through the political mainstream in Brussels and in Paris because it looks like it might be a two-way runoff between the far right and the far left.” — Zora Sheftalovich [08:03]

• Polling Numbers:

  • Bardella (National Rally, far right): Leading first round with 32%.
  • Edouard Philippe (Center-right): 17%.
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Far left): 16%, and sometimes outpolling Philippe.

  “This is what people call a nightmare scenario in Brussels… The National Rally is not going to win this election—this one feels a little different. These numbers are really neck and neck.” — Nick Finnicker [08:25]

• Why Both Extremes Worry Brussels:

  • Bardella: Euroskeptic, anti-immigrant, directly opposed to key EU values.
  • Mélenchon: Pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine, Euroskeptic, radical economic positions.

  “Both candidates are seen as quite problematic from the Brussels perspective... Both are kind of Euroskeptic in their own ways.” — Zora Sheftalovich [09:08]

• Splintered Center:
  Multiple centrist and center-left figures compete, risking division and potentially locking the center out of the final round. Unless some candidates drop out before autumn, the damage may be done.

  “They might actually end up splitting that pool... if each of them performs reasonably well, they are taking votes from one another.” — Zora Sheftalovich [10:29]

• Prospects for the Final Round:
  If Bardella faces Mélenchon, polling suggests a decisive far-right victory: Bardella would win 70–30.

  “Polling shows that in a race between Mélenchon and Bardella... Bardella wins 70 to 30. So then you really do have a far-right president.” — Zora Sheftalovich [11:30]

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3. Can Europe Build Its Own AI Chips?

[12:21 – 14:24]

Key Discussion Points

• EU Tech Sovereignty - The CHIPS Act:
  The European Commission is unveiling a new “tech sovereignty” package, including a push for domestic semiconductor (“chip”) production.

  “This week, the commission is going to be unveiling its tech sovereignty package. And part of that is the CHIPS act... to basically build semiconductor factories in Europe.” — Zora Sheftalovich [12:27]

• Challenges:

  • Europe is a consumer, not a producer, of cutting-edge chips.
  • Leading chipmakers are in Taiwan and South Korea; EU is technologically behind, requiring huge investments to catch up.
  • Real risk: spending billions to subsidize factories, only for the chips to be exported out of Europe.

  “Europe likes using the chips much more than making them… For Europe to compete, it would have to invest an insane amount of money, and by the time it’s finished, others have advanced.” — Zora Sheftalovich [12:41]

  “ASML's CEO warned that Europe could spend billions of euros subsidizing a factory only for most of the chips to be exported outside the EU. Leaves us in the same place.” — Nick Finnicker [13:22]

• Next Steps and Skepticism:
  The EU has invested €700 million into next-gen chips, but moving from research to true production is a major leap. There’s heavy skepticism in industry and among experts about whether Europe can close the gap.

• Parliament and Staff Using AI:
  News that over 2,100 European parliamentarians and staff are already using AI, as highlighted by a POLITICO colleague—signaling AI’s growing footprint in EU policymaking.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Highlight | | --------- | ------- | -------------- | | 02:00 | Nick Finnicker | “This is where the rubber hits the road… deciding the terms for migrants who’ve been denied asylum in the EU.” | | 05:19 | Nick Finnicker | “NGOs warned that they can become legal black holes.” | | 08:25 | Nick Finnicker | “This is what people call a nightmare scenario in Brussels.” | | 09:08 | Zora Sheftalovich | “Both candidates are seen as quite problematic from the Brussels perspective.” | | 10:29 | Zora Sheftalovich | “They might actually end up splitting that pool… taking votes from one another.” | | 12:27 | Zora Sheftalovich | “We’re talking chips, but not Belgian frites… AI microchips.” | | 13:22 | Nick Finnicker | “Europe could spend billions of euros subsidizing a factory only for most of the chips to be exported outside the EU.” |

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Episode Structure & Timestamps

• 00:40 – 06:59: Migration returns deal – political, legal challenges and new strategies
• 08:03 – 11:46: France’s presidential race—why Brussels fears a far-right/far-left runoff
• 12:21 – 14:24: EU’s “chip sovereignty” push and the realism of homegrown AI chip production

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Tone & Listener Interaction

The conversation is lively, layered with dry humor (“chips, but not Belgian frites—disappointing”) and accessible analogies. Host Zora and Nick engage listeners directly, encourage feedback (“tell us how you’re using AI in your parliament!”), and foster a sense of community (shoutouts to handwritten letters).

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Summary

This packed Playbook Podcast pulls back the curtain on urgent migration reforms, the mood of dread gripping EU elites over French politics, and the ambition (and reality check) behind Brussels’ chipmaking dreams. It’s an essential, inside-the-bubble listen for anyone tracing Europe’s shifting political and technological landscape.

Transcript

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[Zora Shifterlovich]

Good morning. It's Monday, June 1st, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is impatient as EU negotiators make another attempt to strike a deal on tougher migrant returns. Also on the pod, France's presidential race is drifting towards a real nightmare scenario for Brussels. Far right, Jordan Bardella versus far left, Jean Luc Melanchon. And the EU was dreaming of an AI chip factory. But critics reckon it might be an expensive gamble. I'm Zora Shifterlovich and with me today is Nick Finnicker. Hey, Nick.

[Nick Finnicker]

Hi.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

How'd you get into the office today? Did you scoot?

[Nick Finnicker]

I did not. How did you know? No, I walked here because they've taken my precious scooters away. They barred me from using them along the main avenue I take to get here. No announcement. Scooter just goes dead halfway in. This is like, yeah, who did it? You know what? I'm still investigating.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Okay.

[Nick Finnicker]

But when I find them, they're going to be some words.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah, you're going to, you're going to tell them what you think of them.

[Nick Finnicker]

I sure will.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

One of the main things we're watching today, it's migration because the parliament, the council and the commission negotiators, they are getting back together tonight for three way talks trying to finalize the EU's return rules. That's the final kind of major piece of the bigger migration and asylum pact that the EU wants to roll out next month.

[Nick Finnicker]

Yeah, and this is really where the rubber hits the road because it's sort of deciding the terms of what happens with migrants who've been denied asylum in the eu. And this is a source of major political pressure and leaders are super keen to show voters are doing something about it.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah, and this is, I mean, we've been banging on and on about the various elections happening next year, but this is a key pillar in Brussels attempt to really claw back some of the ground that has been lost to the far right in various elections over the past few years. But basically what the EU is trying to do is show people that it's actually doing something to assuage their concerns. And the main issue that they've honed in on, the really controversial issue is this returns element where people who fail in their application for asylum, who don't get refugee status, are then told to leave the EU. But they don't. Only roughly like 20 to 25% of people leave.

[Nick Finnicker]

Yeah, exactly. So a huge majority of failed asylum seekers ends up staying in the system. And because of the Schengen no visa zone, they can sort of move freely around the eu. And this has become a major, major political sore point. And now they're looking for ways of basically facilitating sending them back to their home countries. Now a major problem is that a lot of home countries don't want to accept migrants back. So you're stuck with a catch 22, which is why the EU is trying to come up with new and innovative solutions, which is the buzz word for ways of sending these people outside the eu, effectively.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah, that's right. And basically the thinking is firstly, if you set up these so called return hubs, some people call them detention centers, some people call them return hubs, they're essentially places where you can send migrants in third countries, for instance, Albania, as we've seen Italy do. And the idea is, well, they didn't want to go to Albania, they wanted to come to the eu. And they might be more likely to leave if they're being held in Albania rather than staying in the eu. And the other kind of element of this that we, I should mention is also some of the places that these migrants have come from, they are not considered necessarily universally safe. So Afghanistan is one very clear one, Syria is another, where there is some dispute about whether it's safe or not to send these people back.

[Nick Finnicker]

Absolutely. And the governments are working on that too, working on establishing safe zones, declaring that a number of these countries are safe for their returns. It's a whole kind of diplomatic telescope, this thing. But I think what's interesting in our reporting in the past few days, been speaking to diplomats, the reform is not yet completed, but they're already talking about establishing these return hubs. And the way they're doing it is a group of countries is getting together and launching discussions with candidate countries at the same time. And the strategy, they say, is reach out to eight to 10 countries, some of them in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, two countries named here, about creating a deal which is going to be a quid pro quo of some type to set up return hubs there. And there's now a scramble to do this and show voters in the next few months that it's happening.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah. And of course, the flip side of that is, what are you giving those governments in exchange? I mean, that can be money, it can be investments, it can be legislation that allows people to come to the EU easier. So visa liberalization, if you take 100

[Nick Finnicker]

economic migrants who've been denied visas in the EU, will take 50 skilled workers on specific programs from your country. And we should say, I mean, these return hubs are highly controversial. NGOs warned that they can become legal black holes. Effectively. People can just stay there if they don't want to go back to their

[Zora Shifterlovich]

country, or if the country won't take

[Nick Finnicker]

them back, the country won't take them back. It's sort of a little bit mysterious what exactly will happen to them. Whether this is compatible with international law. Of course, the example of the Albanian return hub that you just mentioned has been subject to many legal challenges, and it's sort of become a symbol of how difficult it is. We've also talked about Rwanda. That was another idea from the uk. Some other countries looking to do this in Rwanda that didn't go through. So countries are extremely wary about sort of naming. Okay, we're going to do the return hub here or there. It's still very fraught.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

It will most certainly be subject to legal challenge if and when these things get up and running.

[Nick Finnicker]

Yeah, exactly. So what's at stake today is really how fast this thing starts to be applied. You got countries like France and Germany, they want the return hub provisions to apply immediately. What I'm told from EU officials is that certain things would change. This is a regulation, not a directive, so it becomes law immediately. And one thing is that my migrants will have to check in with authorities in the country where they're hosted to show that they're looking for jobs and staying away from crime and so on. Another one is criminal sentences have been extended from 18 to 24 months and potentially beyond for any crime, serious crime, done in the eu. And that could take effect immediately after a deal is done.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Well, super interesting, Nick. We'll be watching to see whether this deal does indeed get done tonight. We'll see what happens. Hey, Nick, did you watch the Big Game over the weekend?

[Nick Finnicker]

Excuse me? No, I, I, I don't do that. Sometimes I'll pretend that I follow certain sports, like during the World Cup. I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Well, listen, the only reason I knew there was a big game was because my neighbors were watching and it felt like I was there. Every, every goal or lack thereof. I was Celebrating, slash, commiserating with them. It was the Champions League final. Paris Saint Germain won.

[Nick Finnicker]

Oh good.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah, it was a penalty shootout in the end. Four, three.

[Nick Finnicker]

Wow, how embarrassing. I don't know that I come from Paris and there you go. But as per usual, there were fireworks, clashes with police, hundreds of people arrested. A great night all around.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah, I'm sure that everyone enjoyed it equally. But in any case, look, things are getting pretty heated, not just on the football field, but also on the political field. Bumtish. How's that for a segue?

[Nick Finnicker]

Strong. Strong.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Our colleague Claire Calcott has a story out this morning and she's looking at the kind of arithme head of the French election in April 2027. And the polling that is coming out right now is sending a chill through the political mainstream in Brussels and in Paris because it looks like it might be a two way runoff between the far right and the far left.

[Nick Finnicker]

I mean this is what people call a nightmare scenario in Brussels. And you have one poll showing Bardella of the National Rally leading in the first round with 32%. That is an upper unbelievably high vote percentage. Edouard Philippe is the center right candidate, he's on 17%. And Jean Hugh Menonchon, the far left candidates on 16%. And another poll places Menachem above Edouard Philippe. I followed France for years and years and years. I was always having to tell people in Brussels, in London, the National Rally is not going to win this election. You're not going to get this scenario. This one does feel a little different. These numbers are really neck and neck and this scenario could absolutely happen.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

And the reason why the center is concerned about the far left and far right being in that runoff. Well, firstly it's because both candidates are seen as quite problematic from the Brussels perspective. So we've got the far right national Rally, which is a Eurosceptic, anti immigrant, anti all sorts of EU values. And on the far left you've got Melchon, who is quite pro Russia, anti support for Ukraine and who also has some pretty extreme positions when it comes to the economy and so forth. He's had accusations of anti Semitism and funnily enough, he's actually also kind of Eurosceptic.

[Nick Finnicker]

Yeah, exactly. The question is now whether the center can even get someone into the second round. So you've got Edouard Philippe, he's a former prime minister under Macron and that link is potentially problematic for him. And then there's Gabriel et al, another former Prime Minister under Macron, much younger and energetic person. And the game seems to be. For these candidates to separate themselves from Macron's legacy and say, no, well, we disagreed completely while we were in government just 10 minutes ago, and we're going to do things very differently. You also have Rafael Glucksman. He represents the center left option. But a lot of these candidates are essentially circling around the same pool of voters.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

They might actually end up splitting that pool. So if each of them performs reasonably well, then they are going to be taking votes from one another. And there has been conversation around, well, maybe when we get closer into the election, someone might drop out and it might become apparent who the eventual most popular candidate might be and the other person might drop out. But at the moment, they're all really competing with themselves. And that is also problematic. And we've seen some of the analysis in Claire's story. People are saying, look, if this keeps going and no one drops out until the fall, well, it might be too late at that point because the damage will have been done.

[Nick Finnicker]

Yeah, as you say, that kind of left to center right field is now being split up into many, many different slices. And it's really unclear kind of who emerges as the person. As it always works in France. You have a candidate who may not be number one in the first round, but manages to rally people around them in the second round. But in order to do that, you have to make it to the second round, and it's not clear who will.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah. And if you look at the polling, the polling shows that in a race between Melanchon and Bardella, Jordan Bardella, assuming he's the one who's the candidate, because we could still see Marine Le Pen if she wins her court case and is allowed to. But assuming it's Bardella versus Melanchon, Bardella wins 70 to 30. So then you really do have a far right president. That is a real prospect. Well, in any case, look, this is why Brussels is watching very, very closely, because it is a huge race. And listen, folks, out there in the Potter sphere, you can actually listen to the first Playbook Parry podcast this afternoon before 6pm and they're going to be talking about this in French. All right, Nick, our last story today, it's about basically Europe's favorite problem, how it can become less dependent on the rest of the world.

[Nick Finnicker]

I mean, what else is new?

[Zora Shifterlovich]

We're talking chips, but not Belgian frites.

[Nick Finnicker]

Disappointing.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah. AI microchips. So this week, the commission is going to be unveiling its tech sovereignty package. And part of that is the CHIPS act, which is this strategy to Basically build semiconductor factories in Europe, or to be able to at least.

[Nick Finnicker]

Yeah, And a big problem is that Europe likes using the chips much more than making them. Most of the advanced chips are currently designed in the US manufacturing places like Taiwan, South Korea, making Europe super dependent on others for one of the most important technologies.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Basically the issue is, is that those countries are just so far advanced. Taiwan, South Korea, they're just so advanced that basically for Europe to be able to compete to make the chips here, they would have to invest an insane amount of money. And by the time they were finished, all of those microchip factories in Taiwan and South Korea have now advanced further and further and further in front. So it's a really big problem where Europe is quite a long way behind.

[Nick Finnicker]

Absolutely. But then you have the issue of demand for the chips, of actually what companies are going to buy them and use them, and we lack those. Peter Hack just had an interview with the CEO of asml. This is this crucial, crucial company that builds the machines that build the chips. And he warned that Europe could spend billions of euros subsidizing a factory only for most of the chips to be exported outside the eu. Kind of leaves us in the same place.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Yeah, exactly. So this is quite a conundrum that the European Commission is trying to resolve. The EU has already committed around about 700 million to develop next generation chips. But the idea now is to move from that research phase to actually industrial scale production. And there's a lot of skepticism about whether Europe can actually be pull this off. Hey, speaking of chips, Nick, chips power AI. And I've been thinking about how people are using AI out there, because actually our colleague Max Guerriera, he has looked into this and found that there are 2,100 European parliamentarians and their staffers and so forth who are using AI every day.

[Nick Finnicker]

Well, I think let's keep going in that direction.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

Let's do it. Well, folks, tell us how you're using it. If you're in the European Parliament or elsewhere, in some other parliament and you're using AI in your work, tell us what you're doing it with. Wait, tell us what you're doing with it. Oh, it's that time of day. Nick, Before we go, guess what? I got another handwritten letter.

[Nick Finnicker]

Just let me know when I should contact the authorities.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

And no, this was lovely. Herbert in Austria, thank you for sending it in. He said that he's a big fan of the pod and he actually talks about the things that we talk about with his uni classes.

[Nick Finnicker]

It was a really nice letter. I read it and much appreciated folks.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

If you want to write in, whether it be by literal mail or through the WhatsApp link in the show notes, please do. Hey, what about a pigeon? We've not had any pigeon mail.

[Nick Finnicker]

What about a pigeon? Yeah, they're disgusting. Don't get me started on pigeons.

[Zora Shifterlovich]

And yeah, if you do send us a pigeon, please still do go onto Spotify or Apple itunes and give us a rating and tell your friends, give us a share. You know, this is how we get the news of this podcast far and wide.

[Nick Finnicker]

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