EU Confidential – "EU's sweaty summer — what you missed (and what matters)"

Date: August 22, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO Chief Policy Correspondent)
Guests: Jan Janczynski (Defense expert), Gabriel Gavin (Brussels Political Reporter), Jordan Dahl (Mobility Reporter)

Overview

This episode unpacks the unexpectedly action-packed European summer, focusing on high-stakes diplomacy around Ukraine and Russia, a major EU-US trade breakthrough, and the persistent tragedy in Gaza. Host Sarah Wheaton gathers POLITICO’s reporting team to provide a lively, informed debrief on what mattered most while many were on holiday – from Trump and Putin’s headline-grabbing Alaska summit to the European scramble over security guarantees and the shifting sands of EU foreign policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Summer “Break” Surges with Diplomacy and Drama

• Contrary to expectations of a quiet August, European politics stayed “bonkers” busy, with major developments on several fronts.
• “Every year, we go into August thinking, okay, it’s time to relax, put on the short pants and go to the sun. Every single year, something crazy happens, and we end up being super busy.” — Jan Janczynski [03:10]

2. The Trump-Putin Alaska Summit: Optics, Outcomes, and Shockwaves

• Background: Trump hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska—an unprecedented summit that broke Putin’s international isolation.
• Putin’s Win: The meeting was a diplomatic coup for the Russian leader. “Putin felt treated as an equal to the President of the United States... The Russian media saw this as an enormous victory.” — Jan Janczynski [06:08]
• Trump’s Gamble: Trump sought an end to the Ukraine war, possibly eyeing a Nobel Peace Prize. However, “Trump got nothing from Putin. He gave up his threats of economic sanctions… even Fox News and the pro-Trump media were playing it as a mess.” — Jan Janczynski [07:14]
• European Exclusion: EU leaders were not present and failed to influence proceedings, leading to anxiety and frustration in European capitals.

3. Ukraine Diplomacy: European Panic and the Search for Security Guarantees

• Key U.S. Meeting: Following Alaska, an emergency summit brought Trump, Zelenskyy, and seven European leaders together.
• Avoiding Disaster: Ukrainian leaders “averted the worst,” but Trump appeared to push for Ukraine to cede significant territory (Luhansk, Donetsk), raising fears of history repeating itself (Munich, 1938 analogy). — Jan Janczynski [08:48]
• Security Guarantees: Trump agreed to some form of security guarantee for Ukraine, though with no NATO membership or US troop commitment implied. Europeans may fill the security vacuum, but practicalities remain murky.
• “Cast-iron” Needs: “The Ukrainians had lots of pieces of paper from Russia and other countries, and none of that has been useful for them.” — Jan Janczynski [10:52]
• NATO Dynamics: The potential involvement of European troops, the limits of their resources, and the risk of triggering Article 5 leave the future uncertain. “We’re very, very far from figuring out how that would work.” — Jan Janczynski [13:16]

4. European Division and Maneuvering

• Diplomatic Frenzy: Shock at being sidelined led to “panic” in Brussels, with ambassadors meeting virtually at 1am and impromptu European Council video calls. — Gabriel Gavin [15:29]
• Win-Win or Lose-Lose: “The prevailing thinking is... going along with this and saying, ‘Yes, President Trump, we want to see you deliver peace.’ … If it doesn’t, it’s a chance to take Trump on that journey and say... it’s the Russians standing in the way.” — Gabriel Gavin [15:55]
• Eastern European Absence: No Polish, Czech, or Baltic leaders were present, raising questions about representation. “When you want to call Eastern Europe, who does Trump call? And there’s not a really obvious number of interlocutors...” — Gabriel Gavin [18:06]
• Von der Leyen vs. Council President: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attended key meetings rather than Council President Antonio Costa—reflecting power dynamics and institutional roles. “The Commission has become much more of the doer… the Council really has become more of a facilitator.” — Gabriel Gavin [19:57]
• Personal Diplomacy Counts: “If the goal is to get a peace deal with Ukraine, you’re going to send your strongest ally and your strongest advocate. And in this case, it’s certainly [von der Leyen].” — Jordan Dahl [20:48]

5. The New EU-US Trade Deal: A “Victory” with Caveats

• Tariff Ceasefire: Von der Leyen struck a handshake deal with Trump in Scotland: general 15% tariff on European goods.
• Winners & Losers: While billed as a “victory” by the Commission, EU automakers, especially German firms, lament that tariffs on Mexico and Canada remain high, hurting their global competitiveness.
  • “German manufacturers are very rarely happy. In this case, they were happy about the 15% baseline, but they’re not happy that other tariffs remain…” — Jordan Dahl [26:23]
  • American automakers are also tangled up, given North American supply chains.
• Uncertainties Remain: Trump’s “love of the show” leaves critical details unresolved, with lingering questions about the fate of specific sectors and the power of industry lobbies [27:18]

6. Gaza: EU Divided as Crisis Endures

• A slight shift in rhetoric, with more states considering recognition of Palestinian statehood. Yet, “the EU’s position [hasn’t] changed.”
• The EU found “reasonable grounds” that Israel is not honoring humanitarian commitments, but unity on sanctions or stronger measures is lacking.
• “There’s an increasing amount of dissent inside the EU institutions. You’ve got staffers signing up to open letters, some of them staging protests in cafeterias.” — Gabriel Gavin [30:08]
• The humanitarian situation deteriorates, and the incoming “rentrée” could see the question pushed back onto the agenda, especially at an informal ministers’ meeting.

7. Looking Ahead: What (and Where) Next?

• Ukraine: Watch for any progress on making security guarantees concrete and whether any Putin-Zelenskyy (possibly with Trump) meeting materializes. “If we see a Putin Zelenskyy meeting, there is actually progress. I highly doubt that Putin will agree.” — Jan Janczynski [21:56, 32:18]
• Trade: The big September meeting between von der Leyen and Europe’s auto industry CEOs will test whether competitiveness trumps green policy in the run-up to elections. “A really big test to see how much von der Leyen is willing to cave on parts of the Green Deal.” — Jordan Dahl [31:07]
• Gaza: Pressure may mount for more decisive EU action.
• Quotable optimism: “For the first time, you have military chiefs talking about concrete assurances, putting together a proposal that will be presented if and when a meeting... takes place.” — Gabriel Gavin [22:31]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the predictable unpredictability of EU summers:
  • “Every year, we go into August thinking, okay, it’s time to relax… Every single year, something crazy happens, and we end up being super busy.” — Jan Janczynski [03:10]
• On Trump’s diplomatic style:
  • “He seems to just go along with whatever the last person he talked to wants.” — Sarah Wheaton [11:08]
• On Putin’s “win” in Alaska:
  • “Putin felt treated as an equal… you could certainly see that in the way that the Russian media played the meeting afterward.” — Jan Janczynski [06:08]
• On the EU’s power struggles:
  • “The Commission has become much more of the doer… the Council really has become more of a facilitator.” — Gabriel Gavin [19:57]
• On persistent EU divisions and unrest:
  • “It’s clear that the EU's current approach... isn't really going to work.” — Gabriel Gavin [30:18]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:04] Sarah Wheaton’s summer debrief and episode framing
• [03:08] Roundtable banter, “no vacation for Europe’s news”
• [05:46] Trump-Putin Alaska summit breakdown
• [07:45] European/Ukraine fears post-summit, White House summit analysis
• [11:50] The elusive concept of “security guarantees” for Ukraine
• [13:57] Gabriel Gavin on behind-the-scenes EU-U.S. diplomacy post-summit
• [15:29] How “panic mode” gripped European diplomatic circles
• [17:07] Why Eastern Europe was left out in D.C.: Personality and power
• [18:20] The role of von der Leyen vs. Council President Costa
• [21:19] Jan Janczynski’s outlook: “Are we any closer to peace?”
• [22:23] Will momentum and new guarantees shift the political calculus?
• [24:51] EU-US tariff “ceasefire” explained
• [27:59] European divisions and inaction over Gaza
• [30:35] Next up for EU trade: The combustion engine phase-out fight
• [31:38] Where could a potential Putin-Zelenskyy summit happen?
• [32:22] Sign off and farewells

Takeaways

EU leaders and diplomats may have dreamed of a summer break, but events forced them into high stakes, late-night negotiations and scrambling coordination. The Alaska summit marked a remarkable change in global diplomatic optics, while old questions over Europe’s defense, trade, and humanitarian voice remain unresolved and pressing. As the continent returns from recess, the fate of landmark deals—and the foundations of European policy on Ukraine and beyond—will be tested in the coming weeks.

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